The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia NBER—East Asia Seminar on Economics Volume 19 The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia

Edited by Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose

The University of Chicago Press

Chicago and London Takatoshi Ito is a professor in the graduate schools of public policy and of economics at the University of Tokyo, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Andrew K. Rose is the B. T. Rocca Professor of Economic Analysis and Policy at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2010 by the National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 2010 Printed in the United States of America

19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN- 13: 978- 0- 226- 38685- 0 (cloth) ISBN- 10: 0-226- 38685- 6 (cloth)

Library of Congress Cataloging-in- Publication Data The economic consequences of demographic change in East Asia / edited by Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose. p. cm. Selection of papers presented at the 19th annual East Asian Seminar on Economics (EASE-19) on June 19–21, 2009 in Seoul, Korea. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0- 226- 38685- 0 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-226- 38685- 6 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Demographic transition—Economic aspects—East Asia—Congresses. 2. East Asia—Population—Economic aspects—Congresses. 3. Economic development—East Asia—Congresses. 4. Population aging— Economic aspects—East Asia—Congresses. I. Ito, Takatoshi, 1950– II. Rose, Andrew, 1959– III. NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics (19th : 2009 : Seoul, Korea) HB3650.5.A3E36 2010 330.95—dc22 2009045172 o The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences— Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48- 1992. National Bureau of Economic Research

Officers John S. Clarkeson, chairman Kelly Horak, controller and assistant Kathleen B. Cooper, vice-chairman corporate secretary James M. Poterba, president and chief Alterra Milone, corporate secretary executive officer Gerardine Johnson, assistant corporate Robert Mednick, treasurer secretary

Directors at Large Peter C. Aldrich Jessica P. Einhorn Alicia H. Munnell Elizabeth E. Bailey Mohamed El-Erian Rudolph A. Oswald Richard B. Berner Jacob A. Frenkel Robert T. Parry John H. Biggs Judith M. Gueron James M. Poterba John S. Clarkeson Robert S. Hamada John S. Reed Don R. Conlan Karen N. Horn Marina v. N. Whitman Kathleen B. Cooper John Lipsky Martin B. Zimmerman Charles H. Dallara Laurence H. Meyer George C. Eads Michael H. Moskow

Directors by University Appointment George Akerlof, California, Berkeley Joel Mokyr, Northwestern Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia Andrew Postlewaite, Pennsylvania Glen G. Cain, Wisconsin Uwe E. Reinhardt, Princeton Ray C. Fair, Yale Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Franklin Fisher, Massachusetts Institute Craig Swan, Minnesota of Technology David B. Yoffie, Harvard Mark Grinblatt, California, Los Angeles Arnold Zellner (Director Emeritus), Saul H. Hymans, Michigan Chicago Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke

Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations

Jean-Paul Chavas, Agricultural and Applied William W. Lewis, Committee for Economic Economics Association Development Martin Gruber, American Finance Robert Mednick, American Institute of Association Certifi ed Public Accountants Timothy W. Guinnane, Economic History Angelo Melino, Canadian Economics Association Association Arthur B. Kennickell, American Statistical Harvey Rosenblum, National Association for Association Business Economics Thea Lee, American Federation of Labor John J. Siegfried, American Economic and Congress of Industrial Organizations Association

Directors Emeriti Andrew Brimmer Lawrence R. Klein Peter G. Peterson Carl F. Christ Franklin A. Lindsay Eli Shapiro George Hatsopoulos Paul W. McCracken Arnold Zellner