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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
The Life and Times of Gordon Tullock
Public Choice (2012) 152:3–27 DOI 10.1007/s11127-011-9899-3 The life and times of Gordon Tullock Charles K. Rowley · Daniel Houser Received: 24 October 2011 / Accepted: 25 October 2011 / Published online: 10 November 2011 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011 Abstract Gordon Tullock is a founding father of public choice. In an academic career that has spanned 50 years, he forged much of the research agenda of the public choice program and he founded and edited Public Choice, the key journal of public choice scholarship. Tullock, however did much more than this. This Special Issue of Public Choice honors Gordon Tullock in precisely the manner that he most values: the creation of new ideas across the vast range of his own scholarly interests. Keywords Gordon Tullock · Tullock’s life · Tullock’s times Si monumentum requiris, circumspice 1 Innocence of youth Gordon Tullock was born in Rockford, Illinois on February 13, 1922. His father, George Tullock, was a hardy Midwesterner of Scottish ancestry. His mother, Helen, nee Crumb, was of equally hardy Pennsylvania-Dutch stock. His father’s elder brother, Tom, and his two children, also lived in Rockford, but some distance away. So Gordon had no close and continuing relationship with them. Both of Gordon’s grandfathers died before he was old enough to remember them. Both of his grandmothers ‘lived with us for some time, but fortunately not at the same time’ (Tullock 2009:1) Rockford, often referred to as the ‘Forest City’, was a mid-sized city with a 64,000 pop- ulation in 1922, when Gordon Tullock was born. -
Nobel Laureates Joseph Stiglitz, Michael Spence to Co-Chair Independent Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Institute for New Economic Thinking CONTACT: Moira Herbst - SVP of Communications + Editorial Director, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). Tel: +1-917-743-6350, Email: [email protected] Sharon Segel, APCO Worldwide Tel: +44 (0)7930 384 363, Email: [email protected] Sunday October 22, 2017 Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) Announces: Nobel Laureates Joseph Stiglitz, Michael Spence to Co-Chair Independent Commission on Global Economic Transformation Call for New Thinking & New Rules for the New World Economy; Final Report Will Outline Solutions for Emerging and Developed Countries EDINBURGH, U.K.—Following the dramatic political shocks to the industrialized world in 2016, worsening global poverty and inequality, and inadequate public and private sector responses to the challenges that continue to plague the world’s economy 10 years after the financial crisis, the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) has initiated a Commission on Global Economic Transformation (CGET), with support from the Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI). The effort will be led by Nobel Prize-winning economists Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spence. As an independent entity, the Commission on Global Economic Transformation (CGET) is the first commission of its kind, initiated at a critical moment for the global economy. As political and economic populism sweep across the developed world, developing countries are searching for paths to prosperity, and people around the world are struggling with the challenges posed by widening inequality, technological disruption, and climate change. These problems are compounded by the ineffectiveness of current policy tools in many contexts, raising questions about the role of the state, of civil society, and of individuals along with national and international governance frameworks. -
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets Remarked in His Capital in The
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets remarked in his Capital in rate. There is physical wealth, its ownership The American Economy, " ... extrapolation of represented by an homogeneous financial asset inflationary pressures over the next thirty in the form of common stock or "equity," and years raises a specter of intolerable conse there is wealth in the form of real money bal quences.... "1 Fifteen of the thirty years are ances. Accumulation of physical and monetary over, and inflation has accelerated. The central wealth derives from a constant rate of saving concern of this paper is whether Kuznets' pre for the community. Inflation occurs because the diction of "intolerable consequences" for capital growth rate of nominal money exceeds the markets and capital accumulation is on track or growth rate of real money demanded. patently wrong. 2 The inflation is immaculate because its pace Monetary theory distinguishes between "im is constant and perfectly foreseen and because maculate" inflation, "clean" inflation, and the inflation tax on real money balances is com "dirty" inflation. It is the last of these that pensated precisely by a deposit-rate of interest Kuznets dreaded and that we have endured. The on money. It is fully anticipated, and it does not first section below deals very briefly with dif impose a relative penalty on the money form of ferences between the three styles of inflation. wealth. Money-wage rates rise faster than out The second section is a catalogue of ways in put prices in the degree that labor productivity which dirty inflation may obstruct and distort is growing. -
(1899-1992) Born in Austria in 1899, Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Friedrich Von Hayek Was an Advocate of Free-Market Capitalism
Friedrich von Hayek 1 (1899-1992) Born in Austria in 1899, Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich von Hayek was an advocate of free-market capitalism. He is known for his criticism of the prevailing economic theories of the 20th century, Keynesian economic models and socialism. Excerpt from The Commanding Heights by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, 1998 ed., pp. 141-144. In retrospect, it was the awarding of the 1974 Nobel Prize in economics that first captured, almost by chance, the great intellectual change. The Swedish academy wanted to honor Gunnar Myrdal, distinguished Keynesian, a father of development economics, and a great figure of Swedish socialism. But the grantors, worried about the appearance of choosing so local a favorite, decided that they ought to balance the ticket with a more conservative figure, and they awarded the prize to Myrdal jointly with Friedrich von Hayek. A good part of the economics profession was scandalized by the choice of Hayek; many economists in the United States, if polled, would have hardly even considered him an economist. He was regarded as right-wing, certainly not mainstream, even something of a crank as well as a fossil from an archaic era.... Yet the award documented the beginning of a great shift in the intellectual center of gravity of the economies profession toward a restoration of confidence in markets, indeed a renewed belief in the superiority of markets over other ways of organizing economic activity. Within a decade and a half, the shift would be largely complete. And the eventual victory of this viewpoint was really a tale of two cities—Vienna and Chicago. -
List of Contributors and Indexes
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States Volume Author/Editor: Benjamin M. Friedman, ed. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-26411-4 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/frie85-1 Publication Date: 1985 Chapter Title: List of Contributors and Indexes Chapter Author: Benjamin M. Friedman Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11427 Chapter pages in book: (p. 383 - 392) List of Contributors Alan J. Auerbach Roger H. Gordon Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Pennsylvania University of Michigan 160 McNeil Building/CR Ann Arbor, MI 48109 Philadelphia, PA 19104 Martin J. Gruber Christopher F. Baum Graduate School of Business Department of Economics New York University Boston College New York, NY 10003 Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 Patric H. Hendershott Fischer Black Hagerty Hall Goldman, Sachs and Co. 1775 College Road 85 Broad Street Ohio State University New York, NY 10004 Columbus, OH 43210 Roger D. Huang Zvi Bodie Faculty of Finance School of Management University of Florida Boston University Gainesville, FL 32611 Boston, MA 02215 Michael C. Jensen John H. Ciccolo, Jr. Graduate School Citibank, NA of Management 55 Water Street University of Rochester New York, NY 10041 Rochester, NY 14627 Benjamin M. Friedman E. Philip Jones Harvard University Graduate School of Business Department of Economics Harvard University Littauer Center 127 Soldiers Field Road Cambridge, MA 02138 Boston, MA 02163 383 384 List of Contributors Alex Kane Stewart C. Myers School of Management Sloan School of Management Boston University Massachusetts Institute 704 Commonwealth Avenue of Technology Boston, MA 02215 Cambridge, MA 02139 Michael S. -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
Nicholas Kaldor
PROFILES OF WORLD ECONOMISTS 26 NICHOLAS KALDOR NICHOLAS KALDOR – ONE OF THE FIRST CRITICS OF MONETARISM doc. Ing. Ján Iša, DrSc. Known in economic circles as one of the thought in several fields, but it was his work founders of Post-Keynesianism, Nicholas on the theory of distribution and economic Kaldor (1908–1986) ranks among the worl- growth that stirred the greatest reaction. d's foremost economists of the second half Less well-known, however, is Kaldor's con- of the 20th century. Kaldor contributed to tribution to monetary theory, which has long the development of modern economic been standing quietly in the background. Nicholas Kaldor was born in Budapest on 12 May 1908. rous Third World countries, as well as an advisor to central His father was a lawyer and his mother came from wealthy banks and to the United Nations Economic Commission for business family. Although his father had wanted him to Latin America. Most significant, however, was his role as an study law, Kaldor opted for economics. He began his studi- advisor to Labour finance ministers from 1964 to 1968 and es at the University of Berlin in 1925 and then after two 1974 to 1976. After completing his two-year mission in years moved to the London School of Economics (LSE), Geneva in 1949, Kaldor began to work at Cambridge Uni- from which he graduated in 1930. He remained at the LSE versity and became, as John Maynard Keynes had been, a as lecturer until 1947, during which time his colleagues inc- fellow of King's College, Cambridge. -
Trends in Factor Shares: Facts and Implications
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Karabarbounis, Loukas; Neiman, Brent Article Trends in factor shares: Facts and implications NBER Reporter Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: Karabarbounis, Loukas; Neiman, Brent (2017) : Trends in factor shares: Facts and implications, NBER Reporter, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA, Iss. 4, pp. 19-22 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/178760 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu systematically benefit firstborns and help 2 S. Black, P. Devereux, and K. Adolescent Behavior,” Economic Inquiry, Trends in Factor Shares: Facts and Implications explain their generally better outcomes. -
The Mont Pelerin Society: a MANDATE RENEWED
1 The Mont Pelerin Society: A MANDATE RENEWED By Deepak Lal Ladies and Gentlemen, Welcome to this special meeting of the MPS. In this address I would like to explain why it has been called at such short notice and how I hope it provides a renewal of the mandate our founders set for the society.1 After being anointed with the Presidency of this august body in Tokyo (in early September), my wife and I went on to a lecture tour in China. We were in Shanghai on a tour of the magnificent Suzhou industrial estate outside Shanghai, with MPS member Steven Cheung. On the afternoon of the 15th September Steve received a call on his Blackberry that Lehman Brothers had gone into bankruptcy. Steve opined that this marked the end of American capitalism. I thought this somewhat hyperbolic. But, on getting back to London at the end of September, as I was tending my roses, my neighbor, a Thatcherite heart surgeon, said over the hedge that, given the recent events in the capital markets, did I still stand by the views I had expressed in my last book on "Reviving the Invisible Hand".2 I replied that even a severe trade cycle downturn would not undermine the well tested classical liberal principles I had espoused. Though, Gordon Brown might be in trouble having repeatedly congratulated himself for having abolished boom and bust. Two subsequent events shattered this complacency. I had been following a political betting site called Betfair on which some youngsters at the Tokyo MPS meeting were placing bets on a McCain victory. -
A Brief Appraisal of Behavioral Economists' Plea for Light Paternalism
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, vol 32, nº 3 (128), pp 445-458, July-September/2012 Freedom of choice and bounded rationality: a brief appraisal of behavioral economists’ plea for light paternalism ROBERTA MURAMATSU PATRÍCIA FONSECA* Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative ques- tions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to im- prove the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism. Keywords: freedom; choice; bounded rationality; paternalism; behavioral eco- nomics. JEL Classification: B40; B41; D11; D91. So the immediate problem in Libertarian Paternalism is the fatuity of its declared motivation Very few libertarians have maintained what Thaler and Sunstein suggest they maintain, and indeed many of the leading theorists have worked with ideas in line with what Thaler and Sunstein have to say about man’s nature Thaler and Sunstein are forcing an open door Daniel Klein, Statist Quo Bias, Economic Journal Watch, 2004 * Professora doutora da Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie e do Insper, e-mail: rmuramatsu@uol. com.br; Pesquisadora independente na área de Economia Comportamental e Psicologia Econômica, e-mail [email protected]. Submetido: 23/fevereiro/2011. Aprovado: 12/março/2011. Revista de Economia Política 32 (3), 2012 445 IntrodUCTION There is a long-standing methodological tradition stating that economics is a positive science that remains silent about policy issues and the complex determi- nants of human ends, values and motives. -
John Von Neumann Between Physics and Economics: a Methodological Note
Review of Economic Analysis 5 (2013) 177–189 1973-3909/2013177 John von Neumann between Physics and Economics: A methodological note LUCA LAMBERTINI∗y University of Bologna A methodological discussion is proposed, aiming at illustrating an analogy between game theory in particular (and mathematical economics in general) and quantum mechanics. This analogy relies on the equivalence of the two fundamental operators employed in the two fields, namely, the expected value in economics and the density matrix in quantum physics. I conjecture that this coincidence can be traced back to the contributions of von Neumann in both disciplines. Keywords: expected value, density matrix, uncertainty, quantum games JEL Classifications: B25, B41, C70 1 Introduction Over the last twenty years, a growing amount of attention has been devoted to the history of game theory. Among other reasons, this interest can largely be justified on the basis of the Nobel prize to John Nash, John Harsanyi and Reinhard Selten in 1994, to Robert Aumann and Thomas Schelling in 2005 and to Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson in 2007 (for mechanism design).1 However, the literature dealing with the history of game theory mainly adopts an inner per- spective, i.e., an angle that allows us to reconstruct the developments of this sub-discipline under the general headings of economics. My aim is different, to the extent that I intend to pro- pose an interpretation of the formal relationships between game theory (and economics) and the hard sciences. Strictly speaking, this view is not new, as the idea that von Neumann’s interest in mathematics, logic and quantum mechanics is critical to our understanding of the genesis of ∗I would like to thank Jurek Konieczny (Editor), an anonymous referee, Corrado Benassi, Ennio Cavaz- zuti, George Leitmann, Massimo Marinacci, Stephen Martin, Manuela Mosca and Arsen Palestini for insightful comments and discussion.