Who Are the Behavioral Economists and What Do They Say?
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When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
ON the EARLY HISTORY of EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS Alvin E
ON THE EARLY HISTORY OF EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS Alvin E. Roth I. INTRODUCTION In the course of coediting the Handbook of Experimental Economics it became clear to me that contemporary experimental economists tend to carry around with them different and very partial accounts of the history of this still emerging field. This project began as an attempt to merge these "folk histories" of the origins of what I am confident will eventually be seen as an important chapter in the history and sociology of economics. I won't try to pin down the first economic experiment, although I am partial to Bernoulli (1738) on the St. Petersburg paradox. The Bernoullis (Daniel and Nicholas) were not content to rely solely on their own intuitions, and resorted to the practice of asking other famous scholars for their opinions on that difficult choice problem. Allowing for their rather informal report, this is not so different from the practice of using hypothetical choice problems to generate hypotheses about individual choice behavior, which has been used to good effect in much more modern research on individual choice. But I think that searching for scientific "firsts" is often less illuminating than it is sometimes thought to be. In connection with the history of an entirely different subject, I once had occasion to draw the following analogy (Roth and Sotomayor 1990, p. 170): Columbus is viewed as the discoverer of America, even though every school child knows that the Americas were inhabited when he arrived, and that he was not even the first to have made a round trip, having been preceded by Vikings and perhaps by others. -
Introduction to Game Theory
Economic game theory: a learner centred introduction Author: Dr Peter Kührt Introduction to game theory Game theory is now an integral part of business and politics, showing how decisively it has shaped modern notions of strategy. Consultants use it for projects; managers swot up on it to make smarter decisions. The crucial aim of mathematical game theory is to characterise and establish rational deci- sions for conflict and cooperation situations. The problem with it is that none of the actors know the plans of the other “players” or how they will make the appropriate decisions. This makes it unclear for each player to know how their own specific decisions will impact on the plan of action (strategy). However, you can think about the situation from the perspective of the other players to build an expectation of what they are going to do. Game theory therefore makes it possible to illustrate social conflict situations, which are called “games” in game theory, and solve them mathematically on the basis of probabilities. It is assumed that all participants behave “rationally”. Then you can assign a value and a probability to each decision option, which ultimately allows a computational solution in terms of “benefit or profit optimisation”. However, people are not always strictly rational because seemingly “irrational” results also play a big role for them, e.g. gain in prestige, loss of face, traditions, preference for certain colours, etc. However, these “irrational" goals can also be measured with useful values so that “restricted rational behaviour” can result in computational results, even with these kinds of models. -
Arms and Influence by Thomas Schelling
01 Arms and Influence By Thomas Schelling DESCRIPTION This is an influential book written during the Cold War addressing the concept of deterrence. The author’s purpose is to discuss the “diplomacy of violence” in which states use the ability to cause harm to other nations as bargaining power (deterrence and compellence). - Air University SIGNIFICANCE TO THE DETERRENCE COMMUNITY Thomas Schelling was one of the intellectual founders of US nuclear deterrence thinking, and his writing still resonates in the work of deterrence scholars and practitioners today. Schelling’s profound analysis of the impact of nuclear weapons on diplomacy and international relations is timeless and essential reading. This book provides an intellectual and historical basis for understanding contemporary nuclear deterrence issues. 02 The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century By Brad Roberts DESCRIPTION The case against nuclear weapons has been made on many grounds—including historical, political, and moral. But, Brad Roberts argues, it has not so far been informed by the experience of the United States since the Cold War in trying to adapt deterrence to a changed world, and to create the conditions that would allow further significant changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture. - Stanford Security Press SIGNIFICANCE TO THE DETERRENCE COMMUNITY Roberts draws on his experience and academic acumen in this thoughtful, well-researched book. Contrary to those scholars making calls for global nuclear disarmament, Roberts argues the need for and utility of U.S. nuclear weapons now and into the future. After a review of post- Cold War U.S. nuclear policies, Roberts provides in-depth analysis of some of the major nuclear proliferation and deterrence challenges for U.S. -
Institutional Analysis and Design
Political Science 527 Rick Wilson Fall 2015 Herzstein 118 Wednesday 1 pm 713.348.3352 Institutional Analysis and Design This course is an introduction to Institutional Analysis and DesiGn. The study of political institutions has been the bread and butter of political science since Aristotle. This course moves past classical institutionalism and treats contemporary ways of analyzinG individual behavior in institutions. Try to keep an open mind. In the course you will be readinG material Gathered from a number of different disciplines. You will be introduced to a number of ways of thinkinG about the role of institutions for constraining behavior as well as encouraging behavior. Course Requirements: The course will be run as a seminar. A seminar means that you will be treated as a "junior colleague." Everyone is expected to contribute to discussion. As a consequence, completinG the readinG prior to each class meetinG is mandatory. This will enable you to ask questions of material that is unclear (and some of it will be) and to force the members of the seminar (includinG the instructor) to keep on the ball. The readinGs are noted below. At the end of the syllabus are additional (supplemental) readinGs that miGht be of interest. These are arranGed by week. To help you think carefully about the material, I am requirinG that you write, each week from Sept. 2 through Dec. 2, a 2-3 paGe memorandum coverinG one of the readinGs. The memorandum should do 4 thinGs. First, it should outline the main point to the book/article. Second, it should indicate how this book/article fits with the others that were assigned for this week. -
Economics, History, and Causation
Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung Economics, History, and Causation Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics by using instrumental variables econometrics, and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use be- cause of an econometric tragedy of the commons: each suc- cessful use of an instrument creates an additional latent vari- able problem for all other uses of that instrument. Economists should therefore consider historians’ approach to inferring causality from detailed context, the plausibility of alternative narratives, external consistency, and recognition that free will makes human decisions intrinsically exogenous. conomics and history have not always got on. Edward Lazear’s ad- E vice that all social scientists adopt economists’ toolkit evoked a certain skepticism, for mainstream economics repeatedly misses major events, notably stock market crashes, and rhetoric can be mathemati- cal as easily as verbal.1 Written by winners, biased by implicit assump- tions, and innately subjective, history can also be debunked.2 Fortunately, each is learning to appreciate the other. Business historians increas- ingly use tools from mainstream economic theory, and economists dis- play increasing respect for the methods of mainstream historians.3 Each Partial funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada is gratefully acknowledged by Randall Morck. 1 Edward Lazear, “Economic Imperialism,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, no. 1 (Feb. 2000): 99–146; Irving Fischer, “Statistics in the Service of Economics,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 28, no. 181 (Mar. 1933): 1–13; Deirdre N. McCloskey, The Rhetoric of Economics (Madison, Wisc., 1985). -
Thomas C. Schelling [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B
Thomas C. Schelling [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 576-590 Abstract Thomas C. Schelling is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/765/SchellingIPEL.pdf ECON JOURNAL WATCH Cowen, Tyler. 2011. Thomas Sargent, Nobel Laureate. Marginal Revolution, October 10. Link Klamer, Arjo. 1984. Conversations with Economists: New Classical Economists and Their Opponents Speak Out on the Current Controversy in Macroeconomics. Totowa, N.J.: Rowman & Allanheld. Sargent, Thomas J. 1984. Interview by Arjo Klamer. In Conversations with Economists: New Classical Economists and Their Opponents Speak Out on the Current Controversy in Macroeconomics by Klamer. Totowa, N.J.: Rowman & Allanheld. Sargent, Thomas J. 1998. Interview by Esther-Mirjam Sent. In The Revolving Rationality of Rational Expectations: An Assessment of Thomas Sargent’s Achievements by Sent, 163-178. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Sargent, Thomas J. 2008. Rational Expectations. In The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, ed. David R. Henderson. Liberty Fund (Indianapolis). Link Sargent, Thomas J. 2010. Interview by Arthur Rolnick. The Region (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), September: 26-39. Link Sargent, Thomas J. 2011a. United States Then, Europe Now. Presented at Stockholm University, December 8. -
Some Varied Roles of Rationality in Negotiation and Conflict Resolution
University of Florida Levin College of Law UF Law Scholarship Repository UF Law Faculty Publications Faculty Scholarship Spring 1998 Reasoning Along Different Lines: Some Varied Roles of Rationality in Negotiation and Conflict Resolution Jonathan R. Cohen University of Florida Levin College of Law, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.ufl.edu/facultypub Recommended Citation Jonathan R. Cohen, Reasoning Along Different Lines: Some Varied Roles of Rationality in Negotiation and Conflict Resolution, 3 Harv. Negot. L. Rev. 111 (1998), available at http://scholarship.law.ufl.edu/ facultypub/440 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at UF Law Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in UF Law Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of UF Law Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Reasoning Along Different Lines: Some Varied Roles of Rationality in Negotiation and Conflict Resolution Jonathan R. Cohent I. INTRODUCTION Much of our academic understanding of negotiation and conflict resolution has come through the lens of game theory. Game theory, like its parent discipline economics, typically builds upon the as- sumption that people are rational. Indeed, for many, the assumption of rational behavior lies at the core of the game theoretic approach.' Furthermore, the meaning of "rational" that is applied within game theory is typically the same as that used within other areas of eco- nomics: each person is presumed to act so as to make himself or her- self as well off as possible. Often this model goes by the label of utility maximization. -
An Experimental Investigation of Focal Points in Explicit Bargaining
Efficiency, Equality and Labelling: An Experimental Investigation of Focal Points in Explicit Bargaining Andrea Isoni, Anders Poulsen, Robert Sugden and Kei Tsutsui 20 November 2013 ♠ Abstract We investigate Schelling’s hypothesis that payoff-irrelevant labels (‘cues’) can influence the outcomes of bargaining games with communication. In our experimental games, players negotiate over the division of a surplus by claiming valuable objects that have payoff- irrelevant spatial locations. Negotiation occurs in continuous time, constrained by a deadline. In some games, spatial cues are opposed to principles of equality or efficiency. We find a strong tendency for players to agree on efficient and minimally unequal payoff divisions, even if spatial cues suggest otherwise. But if there are two such divisions, cues are often used to select between them, inducing distributional effects. Keywords : explicit bargaining, focal point, labels, salience, cheap talk JEL classification : C72, C78, C91 ♠ Isoni: Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry (UK), CV4 7AL, email: [email protected] . Poulsen: Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich (UK), NR4 7TJ, email: [email protected] . Sugden (corresponding author): Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science and Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich (UK), NR4 7TJ, email: [email protected] . Tsutsui: Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, email: [email protected] . This research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK (award no. RES-000-22-3322). 1 In The Strategy of Conflict , Thomas Schelling (1960: 53, 67–74) proposes the hypothesis that the outcomes of bargaining problems can be systematically influenced by ‘incidental details’ or (as they would now be called) properties of framing or labelling. -
Voting Systems, Honest Preferences and Pareto Optimality Author(S): Richard Zeckhauser Source: the American Political Science Review, Vol
Voting Systems, Honest Preferences and Pareto Optimality Author(s): Richard Zeckhauser Source: The American Political Science Review, Vol. 67, No. 3 (Sep., 1973), pp. 934-946 Published by: American Political Science Association Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1958635 Accessed: 27-05-2020 22:08 UTC REFERENCES Linked references are available on JSTOR for this article: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1958635?seq=1&cid=pdf-reference#references_tab_contents You may need to log in to JSTOR to access the linked references. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at https://about.jstor.org/terms American Political Science Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Political Science Review This content downloaded from 206.253.207.235 on Wed, 27 May 2020 22:08:36 UTC All use subject to https://about.jstor.org/terms Voting Systems, Honest Preferences and Pareto Optimality* RICHARD ZECKHAUSER Harvard University "In a capitalist democracy there are essentially A Desirable Voting Scheme two methods by which social choices can be made: In the market, an individual indicates his pref- voting, typically used to make 'political' decisions, erences through his purchases and sales. In and the market mechanism, typically used to make general, these tracings are insufficient to define an 'economic' decisions."' To economists, the freely individual's complete preference mapping, but functioning competitive market mechanism has from the standpoint of efficiency this creates no alluring structural properties.2 If each individual difficulties. -
Richard Thaler and the Rise of Behavioral Economics
Richard Thaler and the Rise of Behavioral Economics Nicholas Barberis Yale University April 2018∗ Abstract Richard Thaler was awarded the 2017 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. In this article, I review and discuss these contributions. JEL classification: B2, D9, G1 Keywords: endowment effect, prospect theory, mental accounting, nudge ∗I am grateful to Hunt Allcott, Ingvild Almas, James Choi, Stefano DellaVigna, Keith Ericson, Owen Lamont, Ulrike Malmendier, Matthew Rabin, and Jesse Shapiro for helpful discussions about the content of this article. 1 I. Introduction From the 18th century to the first half of the 20th century, the leading economists of the day – figures such as Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, and Irving Fisher – were known to bring aspects of human psychology into their analysis of the economy. By the middle of the 20th century, however, this practice was less common, and with the advent of the rational expectations revolution in the 1960s, economists began to focus almost exclusively on models with the same, tightly-specified assumptions about individual psychology: that people have rational beliefs, and that they make decisions according to Expected Utility. In the early 1980s, a small group of economists began to argue that the rational ex- pectations revolution had gone too far, and that to understand many important economic phenomena, it was critical to develop new models that made assumptions about human be- havior that were psychologically more realistic, and that, in particular, allowed for less than fully rational thinking. This message was roundly dismissed at first, sometimes in scornful terms, but it gradually gained traction. -
Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect
Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell Robert Lucas Dale Mortensen Robert Shiller Neil Wallace Moderated by Kevin Hoover Warren Young CHOPE Working Paper No. 2011-10 30 May 2011 Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell Robert Lucas Dale Mortensen Robert Shiller Neil Wallace Moderated by Kevin Hoover † Warren Young * 30 May 2011 †Department of Economics and Department of Philosophy, Duke University. Address: Box 90097, Durham, NC 27278, U.S.A. E-mail [email protected] *Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University. Address: Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan 52900, Israel. E-mail: [email protected] 1 Abstract of Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth’s “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” ( Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including: its history, starting with Muth’s work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future. JEL Codes: B22, B31, B26, E17 Keywords: rational expectations, John F. Muth, macroeconomics, dynamics, macroeconomic policy, behavioral economics, efficient markets 2 “Rational Expectations” 28 May 2011 Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect: A Panel Discussion with Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller and Neil Wallace, Moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Capitol 1 Room of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Denver, Colorado on 7 January 2011.