Trends in Factor Shares: Facts and Implications
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When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets Remarked in His Capital in The
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets remarked in his Capital in rate. There is physical wealth, its ownership The American Economy, " ... extrapolation of represented by an homogeneous financial asset inflationary pressures over the next thirty in the form of common stock or "equity," and years raises a specter of intolerable conse there is wealth in the form of real money bal quences.... "1 Fifteen of the thirty years are ances. Accumulation of physical and monetary over, and inflation has accelerated. The central wealth derives from a constant rate of saving concern of this paper is whether Kuznets' pre for the community. Inflation occurs because the diction of "intolerable consequences" for capital growth rate of nominal money exceeds the markets and capital accumulation is on track or growth rate of real money demanded. patently wrong. 2 The inflation is immaculate because its pace Monetary theory distinguishes between "im is constant and perfectly foreseen and because maculate" inflation, "clean" inflation, and the inflation tax on real money balances is com "dirty" inflation. It is the last of these that pensated precisely by a deposit-rate of interest Kuznets dreaded and that we have endured. The on money. It is fully anticipated, and it does not first section below deals very briefly with dif impose a relative penalty on the money form of ferences between the three styles of inflation. wealth. Money-wage rates rise faster than out The second section is a catalogue of ways in put prices in the degree that labor productivity which dirty inflation may obstruct and distort is growing. -
Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market
SAMUELSON’S DICTUM AND THE STOCK MARKET BY JEEMAN JUNG and ROBERT J. SHILLER COWLES FOUNDATION PAPER NO. 1183 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 2006 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ SAMUELSON’S DICTUM AND THE STOCK MARKET JEEMAN JUNG and ROBERT J. SHILLER* Samuelson has offered the dictum that the stock market is ‘‘micro efficient’’ but ‘‘macro inefficient.’’ That is, the efficient markets hypothesis works much better for individual stocks than it does for the aggregate stock market. In this article, we review a strand of evidence in recent literature that supports Samuelson’s dictum and present one simple test, based on a regression and a simple scatter diagram, that vividly illus- trates the truth in Samuelson’s dictum for the U.S. stock market data since 1926. (JEL G14) I. INTRODUCTION dividends or earnings or cash flows) of indi- vidual firms than there is about future changes Paul A. Samuelson has argued that one would expect that the efficient markets hy- in the fundamentals of the aggregate stock market. Individual firms’ activities are highly pothesis should work better for individual diverse: Some have breakthrough discoveries stocks than for the stock market as a whole: or important new patents; others are in declin- Modern markets show considerable micro ing industries or have fundamental structural efficiency (for the reason that the minority who spot aberrations from micro efficiency can make problems. Hence some firms at some times money from those occurrences and, in doing so, may be well known to the market to have they tend to wipe out any persistent inefficiencies). -
Restoring Rational Choice: the Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES RESTORING RATIONAL CHOICE: THE CHALLENGE OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL REGULATION John Y. Campbell Working Paper 22025 http://www.nber.org/papers/w22025 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 February 2016 This paper is the Ely Lecture delivered at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on January 3, 2016. I thank the Sloan Foundation for financial support, and my coauthors Steffen Andersen, Cristian Badarinza, Laurent Calvet, Howell Jackson, Brigitte Madrian, Kasper Meisner Nielsen, Tarun Ramadorai, Benjamin Ranish, Paolo Sodini, and Peter Tufano for joint work that I draw upon here. I also thank Cristian Badarinza for his work with international survey data on household balance sheets, Laurent Bach, Laurent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini for sharing their results on Swedish wealth inequality, Ben Ranish for his analysis of Indian equity data, Annamaria Lusardi for her assistance with financial literacy survey data, Steven Bass, Sean Collins, Emily Gallagher, and Sarah Holden of ICI and Jack VanDerhei of EBRI for their assistance with data on US retirement savings, Eduardo Davila and Paul Rothstein for correspondence and discussions about behavioral welfare economics, and Daniel Fang for able research assistance. I have learned a great deal from my service on the Academic Research Council of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and from conversations with CFPB staff. Finally I gratefully acknowledge insightful comments from participants in the Sixth Miami Behavioral -
David Laibson RAND Summer 2006
David Laibson RAND Summer 2006 All readings are recommended. Starred readings will be particularly useful complements for the lecture. George Akerlof "Procastination and Obedience," The Richard T. Ely Lecture, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May 1991. *George-Marios Angeletos, David Laibson, Andrea Repetto, Jeremy Tobacman and Stephen Weinberg,“The Hyperbolic Consumption Model: Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation ” Journal of Economic Perspectives, August 2001, pp. 47-68. Shlomo Benartzi and Richard H. Thaler "How Much Is Investor Autonomy Worth?" Journal of Finance, 2002, 57(4), pp. 1593-616. Camerer, Colin F., George Loewenstein and Drazen Prelec. Mar. 2005. "Neuroeconomics: How neuroscience can inform economics." Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 34, No. 1. Colin Camerer, Samuel Issacharoff, George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue, and Matthew Rabin. Jan 2003. "Regulation for Conservatives: Behavioral Economics and the Case for 'Assymetric Paternalism.'" University of Pennsylvania Law Review. 151, 1211- 1254. *James Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte Madrian. $100 Bills on the Sidewalk: Suboptimal Saving in 401(k) Plans July 16, 2005. *James Choi, Brigitte Madrian, David Laibson, and Andrew Metrick. Optimal Defaults and Active Decisions December 3, 2004. James Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian “Are Education and Empowerment Enough? Under-Diversification in 401(k) Plans” forthcoming, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. *James Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte Madrian, and Andrew Metrick “Optimal Defaults” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2003, pp. 180-185. Dominique J.-F. de Quervain, Urs Fischbacher, Valerie Treyer, Melanie Schellhammer, Ulrich Schnyder, Alfred Buck, Ernst Fehr. The Neural Basis of Altruistic Punishment Science 305, 27 August 2004, 1254-1258 Shane Frederick, George Loewenstein, and O'Donoghue, T. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
AN INVESTIGATION INTO the FORMATION of CONSENSUS AROUND NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMICS in the 1950S
THE ECLIPSE OF INSTITUTIONALISM? AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE FORMATION OF CONSENSUS AROUND NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMICS IN THE 1950s A Dissertation Submitted to the Temple University Graduate Board In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Julie Ragatz May, 2019 Committee Members: Dr. Miriam Solomon, Department of Philosophy Dr. David Wolfsdorf, Department of Philosophy Dr. Dimitrios Diamantaras, Department of Economics Dr. Matthew Lund, Department of Philosophy, Rowan University, External Reader © Copyright 2019 by Julie Ragatz Norton All Rights Reserved ii ABSTRACT The Eclipse of Institutionalism? An Investigation into the Formation of Consensus Around Neoclassical Economics in the 1950s Julie Ragatz Norton Temple University, 2019 Doctoral Advisory Committee Chair: Dr. Miriam Solomon As the discipline of economics professionalized during the interwar period, two schools of thought emerged: institutionalism and neoclassical economics. By 1954, after the publication of Arrow and Debreu’s landmark article on general equilibrium theory, consensus formed around neoclassical economics. This outcome was significantly influenced by trends in the philosophy of science, notably the transformation from the logical empiricism of the Vienna Circle to an ‘Americanized’ version of logical empiricism that was dominant through the 1950s. This version of logical empiricism provided a powerful ally to neoclassical economics by affirming its philosophical and methodological commitments as examples of “good science”. This dissertation explores this process of consensus formation by considering whether consensus would be judged normatively appropriate from the perspective of three distinct approaches to the philosophy of science; Carl Hempel’s logical empiricism, Thomas Kuhn’s account of theory change and Helen Longino’s critical contextual empiricism. -
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015 Robert James Shiller Current Position Sterling Professor of Economics Yale University Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics P.O. Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 Delivery Address Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics 30 Hillhouse Avenue, Room 11a New Haven, CT 06520 Home Address 201 Everit Street New Haven, CT 06511 Telephone 203-432-3708 Office 203-432-6167 Fax 203-787-2182 Home [email protected] E-mail http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller Home Page Date of Birth March 29, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Marital Status Married, two grown children Education 1967 B.A. University of Michigan 1968 S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1972 Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Employment Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, 2013- Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University 2008-13 Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics Yale University 1989-2008 Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1982-, with joint appointment with Yale School of Management 2006-, Professor Adjunct of Law in semesters starting 2006 Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1981-82. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, and Professor of Finance, The Wharton School, 1981-82. Visitor, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1980-81. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1974-81. 1 Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Center for Economics and Management Science, Cambridge; and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1974-75. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 1972-74. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative -
Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice Author(S): Thomas C
American Economic Association Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice Author(s): Thomas C. Schelling Reviewed work(s): Source: The American Economic Review, Vol. 74, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety- Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1984), pp. 1-11 Published by: American Economic Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1816322 . Accessed: 15/12/2011 13:46 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. American Economic Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Economic Review. http://www.jstor.org RICHARDT. ELYLECTURE Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice By THOMASC. SCHELLING* An increasingly familiar occurrence for conflict, if, say, the husband disagreeswith obstetriciansis being asked by patients to the physician in the delivery room about withhold anesthesia during delivery. The what his wife really wants. physicianoften proposes that a facemaskbe put beside the patient who may inhale ni- I. AnticipatorySelf-Command trous oxide as she needs it. But some de- terminedpatients ask that no such opportu- This obstetricalexample, though special in nity be provided:if gas is availablethey will certain respects, is not a bad paradigmfor use it, and they want not to be able to. -
ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography
Τεύχος 53, Οκτώβριος-Δεκέμβριος 2019 | Issue 53, October-December 2019 ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη Nobel Prize in Economics Τα τεύχη δημοσιεύονται στον ιστοχώρο της All issues are published online at the Bank’s website Τράπεζας: address: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/trapeza/kepoe https://www.bankofgreece.gr/en/the- t/h-vivliothhkh-ths-tte/e-ekdoseis-kai- bank/culture/library/e-publications-and- anakoinwseis announcements Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος. Κέντρο Πολιτισμού, Bank of Greece. Centre for Culture, Research and Έρευνας και Τεκμηρίωσης, Τμήμα Documentation, Library Section Βιβλιοθήκης Ελ. Βενιζέλου 21, 102 50 Αθήνα, 21 El. Venizelos Ave., 102 50 Athens, [email protected] Τηλ. 210-3202446, [email protected], Tel. +30-210-3202446, 3202396, 3203129 3202396, 3203129 Βιβλιογραφία, τεύχος 53, Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019, Bibliography, issue 53, Oct.-Dec. 2019, Nobel Prize Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη in Economics Συντελεστές: Α. Ναδάλη, Ε. Σεμερτζάκη, Γ. Contributors: A. Nadali, E. Semertzaki, G. Tsouri Τσούρη Βιβλιογραφία, αρ.53 (Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019), Βραβείο Nobel στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη 1 Bibliography, no. 53, (Oct.-Dec. 2019), Nobel Prize in Economics Πίνακας περιεχομένων Εισαγωγή / Introduction 6 2019: Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer 7 Μονογραφίες / Monographs ................................................................................................... 7 Δοκίμια Εργασίας / Working papers ...................................................................................... -
Simon Kuznets [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B
Simon Kuznets [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein, Ryan Daza, and Hannah Mead Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 411-413 Abstract Simon Kuznets is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/738/KuznetsIPEL.pdf IDEOLOGICAL PROFILES OF THE ECONOMICS LAUREATES Simon Kuznets by Daniel B. Klein, Ryan Daza, and Hannah Mead Simon Kuznets (1901–1985) was born in Russia. In 1922, Kuznets emigrated with his family to the United States. He earned his Ph.D. from Columbia University in 1926 and started working at the National Bureau of Economic Research the following year. Between 1930 and 1971, Kuznets taught at the University of Pennsylvania, Johns Hopkins University, and then Harvard University (Kuznets 1992a/1971). His ideological views do not seem to have changed significantly during his adult life. Kuznets won the Nobel Prize in Economic Science for “for his empirically founded interpretation of economic growth which has led to new and deepened insight into the economic and social structure and process of development.” In a speech at the award ceremony, Bertil Ohlin praised Kuznets for having “consistently addressed himself to giving quantitative precision to economic magnitudes which seem [to] be relevant to an understanding of processes of social change.