1 University of California, Berkeley Fall Semester 2007 Department of Economics Professor George A. Akerlof Professor Maurice O
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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Janet Yellen's Legacy at the Federal Reserve
Journal of Finance and Bank Management December 2019, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 82-87 ISSN: 2333-6064 (Print), 2333-6072 (Online) Copyright © The Author(s). All Rights Reserved. Published by American Research Institute for Policy Development DOI: 10.15640/jfbm.v7n2a6 URL: https://doi.org/10.15640/jfbm.v7n2a6 Janet Yellen’s Legacy at the Federal Reserve Alexander G. Kondeas1 Abstract This paper examines the empirical results of the monetary policies followed by the Federal Reserve during the period of 2010-2018, when Janet Yellen served first as vice chair (2010-2014) and subsequently as chair (2014-2018) of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. As the Central Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve System (FED) is entrusted with conducting the monetary policy in a way that fulfills the Congressional dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Janet Yellen generally adhered to a dovish view of monetary policy, one that favors looser monetary control and lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth. At first glance, the dual mandate was satisfied during her eight years of progressively higher leadership roles at the FED. The economic recovery from the Great Recession (2007- 2008) continued, inflation remained tamed, and the rate of unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1970. Yet a closer look at consumer spending and private fixed investment indicate a sharp decline in the years following the Great Recession and until the end of Yellen’s term at the FED. It is difficult therefore, to argue that the loose monetary policies of her years in office had much of a stimulating effect on the household sector or the business sector. -
Reforming the International Financial Architecture, 2011 Edition1
Reforming the International Financial Architecture, 2011 Edition1 Barry Eichengreen May 2011 If U.S. President Clinton’s treasury secretary Robert Rubin is responsible for coining the phrase “international financial architecture” in a speech at the Brookings Institution in 1998, I deserve some of the blame for popularizing it.2 I used it in the title of my 1999 book, Toward a New International Financial Architecture, published by the Peterson Institute.3 I say blame because the term architecture conveys a rather misleading sense of the nature of the process. Mirriam-Webster’s on-line dictionary defines architecture as “a unifying or coherent form or structure” (as in “this novel displays an admirable architecture”).4 In other words, the term implies a unity and coherence that financial markets, institutions and policies do not possess. Alternatively, Mirriam-Webster defines “architecture” as “a formation or construction resulting from or as if from a conscious act.” But many of our international arrangements have, in fact, evolved as unintended consequences of past actions rather than as the result of anyone’s conscious act, “as if” or otherwise. The post-Bretton Woods exchange rate system, starting in the 1970s and extending through the present day, was more the product of the inability of policy makers to agree on the form that the exchange rate system should take than the result of any conscious decision. Consider current efforts to strengthen the international financial architecture. Do they reflect conscious action and are they likely to deliver the unity and coherence connoted by the label? Conscious action there certainly is, but it is decentralized and imperfectly coordinated. -
Christina and David Romer
The Region Christina and David Romer In times of financial turmoil, it is comforting—or at a minimum, illuminating— to receive counsel from those with long-term perspective. Tempered with the lessons of history, their views extract true trend from distracting noise. Guided by precedent, shaped by narrative, checked against data, the conclusions of economic historians are formed slowly and carefully. In the realm of U.S. monetary history, few economists are as qualified to provide such counsel as Christina Romer and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley. Since 1985, when both received their doctorates from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the two have co-authored some of the field’s central analyses of Federal Reserve policymaking, based on thorough scrutiny of Fed documents and painstaking empirical investigation. They’ve made fundamental contributions to the literature on fiscal policy as well. Individually, Christina is well known for her research on the Great Depression and David for his work on microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics. While their topics and methods are orthodox, their conclusions are often unsettling. Attempts by members of the Federal Open Market Committee to add information to Fed staff forecasts “may lead to misguided actions,” the Romers wrote recently. Monetary policymaking has improved since World War II but not steadily, they’ve concluded; policymakers have gone astray when they deviated from sound economic theory. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Romers have found, government spending is not reined in by tax cuts. And, according to a celebrated, if “offbeat,” analysis by David, football coaches should be much more aggressive on fourth down. -
API-119: Advanced Macroeconomics for the Open Economy I, Fall 2020
Sep 1, 2020 API-119: Advanced Macroeconomics for the Open Economy I, Fall 2020 Harvard Kennedy School Course Syllabus: prospectus, outline/schedule and readings Staff: Professor: Jeffrey Frankel [email protected] Faculty Assistant: Minoo Ghoreishi [email protected] Teaching Fellow: Can Soylu Course Assistants: Julio Flores, Alberto Huitron & Yi Yang. Email address to send all questions for the teaching team: [email protected]. Times: Lectures: Tuesdays and Thursdays, 10:30-11:45 a.m. EST.1 Review Sessions: Tuesdays, 12:30-1:30 pm; Fridays, 1:30-2:30 pm EST.2 Final exam: Friday, Dec. 11, 8:00-11:00 am EST. Prospectus Course Description: This course is the first in the two-course sequence on Macroeconomic Policy in the MPA/ID program. It particularly emphasiZes the international dimension. The general perspective is that of developing countries and other small open economies, defined as those for whom world income, world inflation and world interest rates can be taken as given, and possibly the terms of trade as well. The focus is on monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policy, and on the determination of the current account balance, national income, and inflation. Models of devaluation include one that focuses on the price of internationally traded goods relative to non-traded goods. A theme is the implications of increased integration of global financial markets. Another is countries’ choice of monetary regime, especially the degree of exchange rate flexibility. Applications include Emerging Market crises and problems of commodity-exporting countries. (Such topics as exchange rate overshooting, speculative attacks, portfolio diversification and debt crises will be covered in the first half of Macro II in February-March.) Nature of the approach: The course is largely built around analytical models. -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment Author(S): George A
The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment Author(s): George A. Akerlof and Janet L. Yellen Source: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, No. 2 (May, 1990), pp. 255-283 Published by: Oxford University Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937787 . Accessed: 09/10/2013 09:57 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Oxford University Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Quarterly Journal of Economics. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 216.164.44.3 on Wed, 9 Oct 2013 09:57:21 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Vol. CV May 1990 Issue 2 THE FAIR WAGE-EFFORT HYPOTHESIS AND UNEMPLOYMENT* GEORGE A. AKERLOF AND JANET L. YELLEN This paper introduces the fair wage-effort hypothesis and explores its implica- tions. This hypothesis is motivated by equity theory in social psychology and social exchange theory in sociology. According to the fair wage-effort hypothesis, workers proportionately withdraw effort as their actual wage falls short of their fair wage. Such behavior causes unemployment and is also consistent with observed cross- section wage differentials and unemployment patterns. -
Fed Chair Power Rating
Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Name: Date: Directions: Sports fans often assign a “power rating” to teams and players to measure their strength. In today’s activity, we will research some of the most recent chairs of the Federal Reserve and assign them “power ratings” to express how truly influential they have been in the United States economy. In this activity, we will judge each person’s prerequisites, ability to play defense and offense. Chair (circle one): Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 1. Prerequisites will be measured by academic background, research, and previous career qualifications. 2. Offensive acumen will be evaluated using the chair’s major accomplishments while in office and whether he/she was successful in accomplishing the goals for which he/she was originally selected. 3. Defensive strength will be determined by the chair’s ability to overcome obstacles, both in the economy and political pressures, while holding the chairmanship. 4. The chair in question may receive 1-4 points for each category. The rubric for awarding points is as follows: 1 - extremely weak 2 - relatively weak 3 - relatively strong 4 - extremely strong 5. BONUS! Your group may award up to 2 bonus points for other significant accomplishments not listed in the first three categories. You may also choose to subtract up to 2 points for major blunders or problems that emerged as a result of the chair’s policies. 6. This is a group activity, so remember that you and your team members must come to a consensus! Prerequisites Offensive Acumen Defensive Strength Other Details Power 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 Rating Overall Power Rating is __________________________________ 1 Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Strengths Weaknesses Overall Impression Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 2 . -
August 5, 2021 the Honorable Janet Yellen Secretary of the Treasury
August 5, 2021 The Honorable Janet Yellen The Honorable Katherine Tai Secretary of the Treasury United States Trade Representative 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 600 17th Street NW Washington, DC, 20220 Washington, DC 20508 Dear Secretary Yellen and Ambassador Tai: On behalf of the undersigned organizations, we write to express our support for continued engagement with China on trade and economic issues, including full implementation of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement (“Phase One”), and swift action to address the costly and burdensome tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. We support the Biden Administration holding China accountable to its Phase One commitments, and we strongly urge the Administration to work with the Chinese government to increase purchases of U.S. goods through the remainder of 2021 and implement all structural commitments of the Agreement before its two-year anniversary on February 15, 2022. The Chinese government has met important benchmarks and commitments made in the agreement that benefit American businesses, farmers, ranchers, and workers. For example, the commitment by China to open up its markets to U.S. financial institutions – and other U.S. financial service providers – reflects a hard-won U.S. achievement, and years of work by administrations of both parties. The chapter 3 commitments have been good for American agriculture, addressing most long-standing market access barriers. China has removed market access barriers for some U.S. fruits and grains and for nearly all U.S. beef products, as well as expanded its list of U.S. facilities eligible to export beef, pork, poultry, seafood, dairy, feed additives, and infant formula to China, among other actions. -
High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HIGH FREQUENCY IDENTIFICATION OF MONETARY NON-NEUTRALITY Emi Nakamura Jón Steinsson Working Paper 19260 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19260 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2013 We thank Matthieu Bellon, Vlad Bouchouev, Nicolas Crouzet, Jesse Garret and Shaowen Luo, for excellent research assistance. We thank Michael Abrahams, Tobias Adrian, Richard K. Crump, Matthias Fleckenstein, Michael Fleming, Refet Gurkaynak, Hanno Lustig, Emanuel Moench, and Eric Swanson for generously sharing data and programs with us. We thank Marco Bassetto, Gauti Eggertsson, Mark Gertler, Refet Gurkaynak, Samuel Hanson, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Emanuel Moench, Serena Ng, Roberto Rigobon, David Romer, Christoph Rothe, Eric Swanson, Michael Woodford, Jonathan Wright and seminar participants at various institutions for valuable comments and discussions. We thank the National Science Foundation (grant SES-1056107) and the Columbia Business School Dean’s Office Summer Research Assistance Program for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson NBER Working Paper No. 19260 July 2013, Revised December 2013 JEL No. -
A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications†
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2018, 10(2): 182–216 https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160462 A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications† By Camille Landais, Pascal Michaillat, and Emmanuel Saez* In the United States, unemployment insurance UI is more generous when unemployment is high. This paper examines( ) whether this pol- icy is desirable. The optimal UI replacement rate is the Baily-Chetty replacement rate plus a correction term measuring the effect of UI on welfare through labor market tightness. Empirical evidence suggests that tightness is inefficiently low in slumps and inefficiently high in booms, and that an increase in UI raises tightness. Hence, the cor- rection term is positive in slumps but negative in booms, and optimal UI is indeed countercyclical. Since there remains some uncertainty about the empirical evidence, the paper provides a thorough sensi- tivity analysis. JEL E24, E32, J64, J65 ( ) n the United States, unemployment insurance UI is more generous when ( ) Iunemployment is high. This policy started as an exceptional measure after the 1957–1958 recession and became a permanent program in 1970. Despite its long history, the policy remains debated. This paper examines whether the policy is desir- able from a welfare perspective. We conduct the welfare analysis in a matching model. We extend the static model from a companion paper Landais, Michaillat, and Saez 2018 into a dynamic model ( ) better suited for quantitative applications Section I . The model features most ( ) effects discussed in the policy debate: the effects of UI on job search, on wages, on job vacancies, and on aggregate unemployment.1 The optimal generosity of UI is given by a sufficient-statistic formula: the optimal replacement rate equals the Baily-Chetty replacement rate, a well-researched entity, plus a correction term mea- suring the effect of UI on social welfare through labor market tightness. -
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015 Robert James Shiller Current Position Sterling Professor of Economics Yale University Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics P.O. Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 Delivery Address Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics 30 Hillhouse Avenue, Room 11a New Haven, CT 06520 Home Address 201 Everit Street New Haven, CT 06511 Telephone 203-432-3708 Office 203-432-6167 Fax 203-787-2182 Home [email protected] E-mail http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller Home Page Date of Birth March 29, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Marital Status Married, two grown children Education 1967 B.A. University of Michigan 1968 S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1972 Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Employment Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, 2013- Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University 2008-13 Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics Yale University 1989-2008 Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1982-, with joint appointment with Yale School of Management 2006-, Professor Adjunct of Law in semesters starting 2006 Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1981-82. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, and Professor of Finance, The Wharton School, 1981-82. Visitor, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1980-81. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1974-81. 1 Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Center for Economics and Management Science, Cambridge; and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1974-75. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 1972-74.