William Vickrey
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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
Introduction to Game Theory
Economic game theory: a learner centred introduction Author: Dr Peter Kührt Introduction to game theory Game theory is now an integral part of business and politics, showing how decisively it has shaped modern notions of strategy. Consultants use it for projects; managers swot up on it to make smarter decisions. The crucial aim of mathematical game theory is to characterise and establish rational deci- sions for conflict and cooperation situations. The problem with it is that none of the actors know the plans of the other “players” or how they will make the appropriate decisions. This makes it unclear for each player to know how their own specific decisions will impact on the plan of action (strategy). However, you can think about the situation from the perspective of the other players to build an expectation of what they are going to do. Game theory therefore makes it possible to illustrate social conflict situations, which are called “games” in game theory, and solve them mathematically on the basis of probabilities. It is assumed that all participants behave “rationally”. Then you can assign a value and a probability to each decision option, which ultimately allows a computational solution in terms of “benefit or profit optimisation”. However, people are not always strictly rational because seemingly “irrational” results also play a big role for them, e.g. gain in prestige, loss of face, traditions, preference for certain colours, etc. However, these “irrational" goals can also be measured with useful values so that “restricted rational behaviour” can result in computational results, even with these kinds of models. -
THE ECONOMICS of INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Also by Manas Chatterji
THE ECONOMICS OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Also by Manas Chatterji ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES IN CONFLICT MANAGEMENT DISARMAMENT, ECONOMIC CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT OF PEACE (editor with Linda Forcey) DYNAMICS AND CONFLICT IN REGIONAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE (editor with Robert E. Kuenne) ECONOMIC ISSUES OF DISARMAMENT: Contributions from Peace Economics and Peace Science (editor with Jurgen Brauer) ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor) ENERGY, REGIONAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY (editor with P. van Rompuy) ENVIRONMENT, REGIONAL SCIENCE AND INTERREGIONAL MODELING (editor with P. van Rompuy) HAZARDOUS MATERIALS DISPOSAL: Siting and Management (editor) HEALTH CARE COST-CONTAINMENT POLICY: An Econometric Study MANAGEMENT AND REGIONAL SCIENCE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NEW FRONTIERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE (editor with Robert E. Kuenne) SPACE LOCATION AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (editor) SPATIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE POLICY IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor with Peter Nijkamp, T. R. Lakshann and C. R. Pathak) TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor) The Economics of International Security Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen Edited by Manas Chatterji School of Management and Economics State University ofNew York Henk Jager Department of Macroeconomics University ofAmsterdam and Annemarie Rima College of Economics Arnhem M ~~- St. Martin's Press © Manas Chatterji, Henk Jager and Annemarie Rima 1994 Foreword © Lawrence R. Klein 1994 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1994 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. -
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015 Robert James Shiller Current Position Sterling Professor of Economics Yale University Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics P.O. Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 Delivery Address Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics 30 Hillhouse Avenue, Room 11a New Haven, CT 06520 Home Address 201 Everit Street New Haven, CT 06511 Telephone 203-432-3708 Office 203-432-6167 Fax 203-787-2182 Home [email protected] E-mail http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller Home Page Date of Birth March 29, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Marital Status Married, two grown children Education 1967 B.A. University of Michigan 1968 S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1972 Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Employment Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, 2013- Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University 2008-13 Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics Yale University 1989-2008 Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1982-, with joint appointment with Yale School of Management 2006-, Professor Adjunct of Law in semesters starting 2006 Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1981-82. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, and Professor of Finance, The Wharton School, 1981-82. Visitor, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1980-81. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1974-81. 1 Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Center for Economics and Management Science, Cambridge; and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1974-75. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 1972-74. -
Efficient Collective Decision-Making, Marginal Cost Pricing, and Quadratic Voting
Efficient Collective Decision-Making, Marginal Cost Pricing, and Quadratic Voting Nicolaus Tideman* Department of Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg, VA 24061 [email protected] Phone: 540-231-7592; Fax: 540-231-9288 Florenz Plassmann Department of Economics, State University of New York at Binghamton Binghamton, NY 13902-6000 [email protected] Phone: 607-777-4934; Fax: 607-777-2681 This version: February 22, 2016 Abstract We trace the developments that led to quadratic voting, from Vickrey’s counterspeculation mechanism and his second-price auction through the family of Groves mechanisms, the Clarke mechanism, the expected externality mechanism, and the Hylland-Zeckhauser mechanism. We show that these mechanisms are all applications of the fundamental insight that for a process to be efficient, all parties involved must bear the marginal costs of their actions. JEL classifications: D72, D82 Keywords: Quadratic Voting, Expected externality mechanism, Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism, Hylland-Zeckhauser mechanism. * Corresponding author. We thank Glen Weyl for helpful comments. 1. Introduction Quadratic voting is such a simple and powerful idea that it is remarkable that it took economists so long to understand it. At one level, its discovery was a flash of insight. At another level, the discovery is the latest step in a series of incremental understandings over more than half a century. Our account of the history of insights that led up to quadratic voting begins with a detour. In his 1954 paper The pure theory of public expenditures, Paul Samuelson set out the conditions for efficient provision of public goods and told us that we should not expect to ever achieve those conditions. -
A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
10922-01_Gordon_REV.qxd 1/25/08 11:05 AM Page 1 ROBERT J. GORDON Northwestern University A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard YOUNGER READERS OF THIS volume may not appreciate how creative was the invention of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, how much it changed the way applied economics is communicated, and how magic has been its appeal to economists young and old, the novices and the famous, over its many years of operation. Within ten years of its creation, it had become one of the four most circulated academic journals in economics. The Brookings Papers started at 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, 1970, with my first paper on the Phillips curve,1 which was discussed by none other than George Perry and Robert Solow. Right from the start, the Brookings Papers was the place to go to for up-to-date analysis of the macroeconomic puzzles of the day. A scorecard of frequent contributors to the Brookings Papers over the years would include many of the great and famous economists of our day: not just Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, but other luminaries including Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, and Lawrence Summers, not to mention the Nobel Prize contingent of George Akerlof, Franco Modigliani, Edmund Phelps, Robert Solow, and James Tobin. It is a supreme tribute to Perry and Brainard— and to Arthur Okun, the journal’s cofounder with Perry—that, when they asked, these people came, whether they were famous then or would become so only later. -
William Vickrey [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B
William Vickrey [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein, Ryan Daza, and Hannah Mead Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 671-676 Abstract William Vickrey is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/782/VickreyIPEL.pdf IDEOLOGICAL PROFILES OF THE ECONOMICS LAUREATES William Vickrey by Daniel B. Klein, Ryan Daza, and Hannah Mead William Vickrey (1914–1996) was born in Victoria, British Columbia, and attended Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, for high school. He went to Yale for his bachelor’s degree and graduated in 1935 with a B.S. in mathematics. He received his master’s in 1937 and Ph.D. in 1948 from Columbia University; being “a Quaker, a pacifist, and a moral economist” (Holt et al. 1998, 1), Vickrey was a conscientious objector in World War II (Brownlee and Ide 2013, 202). Vickrey became a professor at Columbia and remained there for the rest of his career. Richard Arnott (1998, 108) ascribes to Vickrey a primary concern with social justice (see also Drèze 1998), yet Vickrey often recommended unorthodox policies to better achieve his ethical goals (Warsh 1996). Few of Vickrey’s recom- mendations were implemented because of his “lack of political sensibility” (Holt et al. -
Market Failure in Context: Introduction Alain Marciano and Steven G
Market Failure in Context: Introduction Alain Marciano and Steven G. Medema Market failure, conceived of as the failure of the market to bring about results that are in the best interests of society as a whole, has a long lin- eage in the history of writings on matters economic. As Steven G. Medema has shown in The Hesitant Hand, much of the history of economics can be read as a discussion of whether, and the extent to which, the self- interested actions of private agents, channeled through the market, will redound to the larger social interest. For much of this history, the answers given were negative, and it was assumed that the corrective hand of the state was needed as a constant and consistent regulating force. Thus we find Plato and Aristotle arguing for a wide range of legal restrictions to guard against macroeconomic (to use the modern term) instability; Aqui- nas making the case for rules that promote a measure of Christian justice in economic affairs; mercantilist writers lobbying for restrictions on vari- ous forms of trade (and support for others), as well as for regulations on Correspondence may be addressed to Alain Marciano, University of Montpellier, Department of Economics, Rue Raymond Dugrand, CS 79606, F-34960 Montpellier, France (e-mail: alain [email protected]); and to Steven G. Medema, Department of Economics, University of Colorado Denver, CB 181, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364 (e-mail: steven.medema @ucdenver.edu). The editors wish to thank Paul Dudenhefer for his diligent shepherding of this project from conference to published volume. -
Journal of Economics and Management
Journal of Economics and Management ISSN 1732-1948 Vol. 39 (1) 2020 Sylwia Bąk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4398-0865 Institute of Economics, Finance and Management Faculty of Management and Social Communication Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland [email protected] The problem of uncertainty and risk as a subject of research of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences Accepted by Editor Ewa Ziemba | Received: June 27, 2019 | Revised: October 29, 2019 | Accepted: November 8, 2019. Abstract Aim/purpose – The main aim of the present paper is to identify the problem of uncer- tainty and risk in research carried out by the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences and its analysis by disciplines/sub-disciplines represented by the awarded researchers. Design/methodology/approach – The paper rests on the literature analysis, mostly analysis of research achievements of the Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Sciences. Findings – Studies have determined that research on uncertainty and risk is carried out in many disciplines and sub-disciplines of economic sciences. In addition, it has been established that a number of researchers among the Nobel Prize laureates in the field of economic sciences, take into account the issues of uncertainty and risk. The analysis showed that researchers selected from the Nobel Prize laureates have made a significant contribution to raising awareness of the importance of uncertainty and risk in many areas of the functioning of individuals, enterprises and national economies. Research implications/limitations – Research analysis was based on a selected group of scientific research – Laureates of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, thus confirmed ground-breaking and momentous nature of the research findings of this group of authors justifies the selective choice of the analysed research material. -
ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography
Τεύχος 53, Οκτώβριος-Δεκέμβριος 2019 | Issue 53, October-December 2019 ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη Nobel Prize in Economics Τα τεύχη δημοσιεύονται στον ιστοχώρο της All issues are published online at the Bank’s website Τράπεζας: address: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/trapeza/kepoe https://www.bankofgreece.gr/en/the- t/h-vivliothhkh-ths-tte/e-ekdoseis-kai- bank/culture/library/e-publications-and- anakoinwseis announcements Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος. Κέντρο Πολιτισμού, Bank of Greece. Centre for Culture, Research and Έρευνας και Τεκμηρίωσης, Τμήμα Documentation, Library Section Βιβλιοθήκης Ελ. Βενιζέλου 21, 102 50 Αθήνα, 21 El. Venizelos Ave., 102 50 Athens, [email protected] Τηλ. 210-3202446, [email protected], Tel. +30-210-3202446, 3202396, 3203129 3202396, 3203129 Βιβλιογραφία, τεύχος 53, Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019, Bibliography, issue 53, Oct.-Dec. 2019, Nobel Prize Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη in Economics Συντελεστές: Α. Ναδάλη, Ε. Σεμερτζάκη, Γ. Contributors: A. Nadali, E. Semertzaki, G. Tsouri Τσούρη Βιβλιογραφία, αρ.53 (Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019), Βραβείο Nobel στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη 1 Bibliography, no. 53, (Oct.-Dec. 2019), Nobel Prize in Economics Πίνακας περιεχομένων Εισαγωγή / Introduction 6 2019: Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer 7 Μονογραφίες / Monographs ................................................................................................... 7 Δοκίμια Εργασίας / Working papers ...................................................................................... -
Dead on Target: Metrics Fit for a Golden Age
Dead on Target: Metrics Fit for a Golden Age by Fred Harrison on 10 November 2017 Graphics by Ian Kirkwood AS CANADA’S Minister of International Trade, Chrystia Freeland devoted two years to negotiating the terms of global commerce. She is now Canada’s Foreign Minister. Anticipating the political turbulence called “populism”, she firmly declared: Globalization and the technology revolution aren’t going away - and thank goodness for that. But she was sympathetic to the plight of millions of people who were excluded from a share of the riches being bequeathed by the digital revolution. The solution was not less robotic power, but better public policies. America today urgently needs a 21st century Henry George - a thinker who embraces the wealth-creating power of capitalism, but squarely faces the inequity of its current manifestation. That kind of thinking is missing on the Right, which is still relying on Reagan- era trickle-down economics...But the Left isn’t doing much better either, preferring nostalgia for the high-wage, medium-skill manufacturing jobs of the post-war era and China-bashing to a serious and original effort to figure out how to make 21st century capitalism work for the middle class (Freeland 2012). Freeland highlighted the conundrum that plagues both the private practise of economics and the public administration of policies. Palliative measures are overwhelmed by persistent problems such as unemployment, unaffordable housing and gross income inequality. But her solution is problematic. First, philosophy. Why is Henry George’s paradigm absent from the theory and practise of economics? Second, statistics. For the moment, let us assume that George’s thesis is correct.1 Quality data on which to construct an index 1 Henry’s George’s fiscal paradigm rests on a theory of rent that is endorsed as correct by a raft of Nobel prize- winning economists.