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THE ECONOMICS of INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Also by Manas Chatterji THE ECONOMICS OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Also by Manas Chatterji ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES IN CONFLICT MANAGEMENT DISARMAMENT, ECONOMIC CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT OF PEACE (editor with Linda Forcey) DYNAMICS AND CONFLICT IN REGIONAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE (editor with Robert E. Kuenne) ECONOMIC ISSUES OF DISARMAMENT: Contributions from Peace Economics and Peace Science (editor with Jurgen Brauer) ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor) ENERGY, REGIONAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY (editor with P. van Rompuy) ENVIRONMENT, REGIONAL SCIENCE AND INTERREGIONAL MODELING (editor with P. van Rompuy) HAZARDOUS MATERIALS DISPOSAL: Siting and Management (editor) HEALTH CARE COST-CONTAINMENT POLICY: An Econometric Study MANAGEMENT AND REGIONAL SCIENCE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NEW FRONTIERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE (editor with Robert E. Kuenne) SPACE LOCATION AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT (editor) SPATIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE POLICY IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor with Peter Nijkamp, T. R. Lakshann and C. R. Pathak) TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (editor) The Economics of International Security Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen Edited by Manas Chatterji School of Management and Economics State University ofNew York Henk Jager Department of Macroeconomics University ofAmsterdam and Annemarie Rima College of Economics Arnhem M ~~- St. Martin's Press © Manas Chatterji, Henk Jager and Annemarie Rima 1994 Foreword © Lawrence R. Klein 1994 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1994 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published in Great Britain 1994 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-23697-8 ISBN 978-1-349-23695-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-23695-4 First published in the United States of America 1994 by Scholarly and Reference Division, ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0-312-12018-4 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Economics of international security : essays in honour of Jan Tinbergen / edited by Manas Chatterji, Henk Jager, and Annemarie Rima. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-312-12018-4 1. Economic conversion-Congresses. 2. Disarmament-Economic aspects-Congresses. 3. Military readiness-Congresses. 4. Economic sanctions-Congresses. 5. Security, International­ -Congresses. III. Jager, Henk de. IV. Rima, Annemarie, 1956- HC79.D4E267 1994 338.4©76233-dc20 93-34313 CIP To Jan Tinbergen Jan Tinbergen photo: Levien Willemse Contents List of Figures and Tables X Foreword by Lawrence R. Klein Xll Message from Jan Tinbergen xiv Notes on the Contributors xvi List of Abbreviations xviii 1 Introduction Manas Chatterji, Henk Jager and Annemarie Rima 1 PART I DISARMAMENT AND THE ECONOMICS OF PEACE 2 The Autonomous Military Power: An Economic View John Kenneth Galbraith 9 3 Development and Disarmament: The Meaning Lawrence R. Klein 14 4 Peace Economics: Future Directions and Potential Contributions to International Security Walter Isard 20 5 Disarmament, Unemployment, Budgets and Inflation William Vickrey 34 6 Disarmament for Development in Favour of the Developing Countries Jacques Fontanel 38 7 Analysing Efficient Military Spending William G. Shepherd 51 8 A Computational Analysis of the Effects of Reductions in US Military Expenditures Alan K. Fox and Robert M. Stern 62 vii viii Contents PART II INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC SANCTIONS 9 International Peace-Keeping Forces: Economics and Politics Kenneth J. Arrow 81 10 Japan as a Post-Cold War Model Davis B. Bobrow 87 11 An Application of a 'Self-Protection' Model to the Economics of National Defence Toshitaka Fukiharu 95 12 Comprehensive Global Security: A Copernican Reversal Piet H.J.J. Terhal 106 13 Towards a Truly European Security System David Fouquet and Manuel Kohnstamm 118 14 Options for a Security Regime in Eastern Europe after the Cold War Tulia Traistaru 129 15 Problems of Disarmament and Regional Conflicts Manas Chatterji 137 16 Economic Sanctions: A Hidden Cost of the New World Order Peter A.G. van Bergeijk and Charles van Marrewijk 168 17 The Persistence and Frequency of Economic Sanctions Shane Bonetti 183 PART III ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONVERSION AND GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS 18 Experiences of Soviet Conversion Stanislav Menshikov 197 19 Conversion in Czechoslovakia: Experience and Preliminary Results Ludek Urban 206 Contents ix 20 Employment Effects of US Military Spending Reductions in the Early 1990s: Some Methodological Considerations Jurgen Brauer and John Tepper Marlin 212 21 Conversion in China Chai Benliang 223 22 Measuring the Effects of Military Spending: Cross Sections or Time Series? Ron Smith 232 23 Armament and Development: An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Developing Countries Alex Mintz and Randolph T. Stevenson 245 24 Environmental Issues and International Security: A Commentary Iona Sebastian 254 25 The Role of International Institutions and Superpowers after the End of the Cold War Akira Hattori 259 26 A World Marshall Plan and Disarmament Robert J. Schwartz 265 Index 273 List of Figures and Tables FIGURES 11.1 Reaction functions 101 11.2 Technological improvement and distribution of armament 102 11.3 Pareto optimum distribution in case of antagonism 103 11.4 Pareto optimum distribution in case of alliance 104 15.1 The PSIG model 155 15.2 Definition of the developing countries 159 15.3 Demographic-agricultural submodel 160 16.1 Production in neoclassical trade theory 177 17.1 Net benefit function with and without sunk cost accounting 189 17.2 The sender's net benefit function 189 17.3 Extensive form of the single shot game 190 22.1 Time-series and cross-section estimates of the regression equation 241 22.2 Relationship between the regression coefficient and the regression in case of non-linearity 242 TABLES 3.1 Burden of militarization on developing countries 15 8.1 Aggregate effects of a unilateral 25% reduction in US military expenditures on the major industrialized and developing countries 67 8.2 Change in US employment by occupation and sector due to unilateral 25% reduction in US military expenditures 69 8.3 Change in US employment by sector and region due to unilateral 25% reduction in US military expenditures 71 8.4 Change in US employment by region and occupation due to unilateral 25% reduction in US military expenditures 74 8.5 US labour market dislocation measures 75 12.1 Incidence of insecurity by class Ill 15.1 Share of Third World in global security expenditure according to region, 1950-84 141 15.2 Military spending for some developing countries 142 15.3 Socio-economic information about some developing countries 143 X List of Figures and Tables xi 15.4 World military expenditure in constant price figures 146 15.5 World trade in major conventional weapon systems, 1987-91 147 15.6 Official Chinese defence spending, 1979-90 148 15.7 Countries 156 15.8 Percentage change of variables between 1980 and 1985 157 15.9 List of variables, units and sources for India, 1950-85 164 16.1 LOGIT analysis of success and failure of economic sanctions 173 16.2 Strategies and pay-offs for the target in a two-period game 175 16.3 Impact of political uncertainty on trade 180 17.1 Pay-off matrix for a one-shot game 185 19.1 Military production in Czechoslovakia 208 21.1 Comparison of the two stages of the Chinese DSTI system 227 21.2 Characteristics of military and civilian commodities 228 23.1 Effects of the military sector on economic performance 250 A. I Total loan and grants in Marshall Plan period 270 A.2 Marshall Plan loan and grants to each country (1948-52) 271 Foreword Dutch economists have been world leaders in the scholarly study of peace, security, arms limitation, and related subjects. The Tin bergen Institute, the research institute and graduate school of the Erasmus University Rotterdam, the University of Amsterdam, and the Free University Amsterdam, and the Dutch/Flemish Association of Economists for Peace carried their traditional role forward by convening the conference on Economics of International Security in The Hague, 21-23 May 1992. The setting was entirely appropriate for the occasion. The Peace Palace, an early twentieth-century structure which had housed many historic meet­ ings to further the cause of peace, was ideal for the presentations and delib­ erations described in this volume. In his opening address Jan Tinbergen, who has contributed so much in a rich lifetime to the economics of peace, evoked in the audience feelings of nostalgia when he spoke of his and other studies for the League of Nations in another peace-loving place, Geneva. The work of the successor organization, the United Nations, and other multilateral institutions who serve the cause of peace will figure promi­ nently in this book. When economists attempt to deal with the economics of peace, they must go far afield in order to deal with all the details that arise in the profes­ sional analysis of the peace process. The following chapters cover such issues, in their relation to peace, as economic development, macroeconomic ac­ tivity levels, economic efficiency, arms reduction, national defence, local conflicts, the use of sanctions, conversion from military to civilian activities, financing defence, use of the peace dividend, environmental aspects of in­ ternational security, and world reconstruction.
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