Stabilization Policy: a Reconsideration
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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Janet Yellen's Legacy at the Federal Reserve
Journal of Finance and Bank Management December 2019, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 82-87 ISSN: 2333-6064 (Print), 2333-6072 (Online) Copyright © The Author(s). All Rights Reserved. Published by American Research Institute for Policy Development DOI: 10.15640/jfbm.v7n2a6 URL: https://doi.org/10.15640/jfbm.v7n2a6 Janet Yellen’s Legacy at the Federal Reserve Alexander G. Kondeas1 Abstract This paper examines the empirical results of the monetary policies followed by the Federal Reserve during the period of 2010-2018, when Janet Yellen served first as vice chair (2010-2014) and subsequently as chair (2014-2018) of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. As the Central Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve System (FED) is entrusted with conducting the monetary policy in a way that fulfills the Congressional dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Janet Yellen generally adhered to a dovish view of monetary policy, one that favors looser monetary control and lower interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth. At first glance, the dual mandate was satisfied during her eight years of progressively higher leadership roles at the FED. The economic recovery from the Great Recession (2007- 2008) continued, inflation remained tamed, and the rate of unemployment fell to its lowest level since 1970. Yet a closer look at consumer spending and private fixed investment indicate a sharp decline in the years following the Great Recession and until the end of Yellen’s term at the FED. It is difficult therefore, to argue that the loose monetary policies of her years in office had much of a stimulating effect on the household sector or the business sector. -
Reforming the International Financial Architecture, 2011 Edition1
Reforming the International Financial Architecture, 2011 Edition1 Barry Eichengreen May 2011 If U.S. President Clinton’s treasury secretary Robert Rubin is responsible for coining the phrase “international financial architecture” in a speech at the Brookings Institution in 1998, I deserve some of the blame for popularizing it.2 I used it in the title of my 1999 book, Toward a New International Financial Architecture, published by the Peterson Institute.3 I say blame because the term architecture conveys a rather misleading sense of the nature of the process. Mirriam-Webster’s on-line dictionary defines architecture as “a unifying or coherent form or structure” (as in “this novel displays an admirable architecture”).4 In other words, the term implies a unity and coherence that financial markets, institutions and policies do not possess. Alternatively, Mirriam-Webster defines “architecture” as “a formation or construction resulting from or as if from a conscious act.” But many of our international arrangements have, in fact, evolved as unintended consequences of past actions rather than as the result of anyone’s conscious act, “as if” or otherwise. The post-Bretton Woods exchange rate system, starting in the 1970s and extending through the present day, was more the product of the inability of policy makers to agree on the form that the exchange rate system should take than the result of any conscious decision. Consider current efforts to strengthen the international financial architecture. Do they reflect conscious action and are they likely to deliver the unity and coherence connoted by the label? Conscious action there certainly is, but it is decentralized and imperfectly coordinated. -
Ten Nobel Laureates Say the Bush
Hundreds of economists across the nation agree. Henry Aaron, The Brookings Institution; Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Frank Ackerman, Global Development and Environment Institute; William James Adams, University of Michigan; Earl W. Adams, Allegheny College; Irma Adelman, University of California – Berkeley; Moshe Adler, Fiscal Policy Institute; Behrooz Afraslabi, Allegheny College; Randy Albelda, University of Massachusetts – Boston; Polly R. Allen, University of Connecticut; Gar Alperovitz, University of Maryland; Alice H. Amsden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Robert M. Anderson, University of California; Ralph Andreano, University of Wisconsin; Laura M. Argys, University of Colorado – Denver; Robert K. Arnold, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy; David Arsen, Michigan State University; Michael Ash, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Alice Audie-Figueroa, International Union, UAW; Robert L. Axtell, The Brookings Institution; M.V. Lee Badgett, University of Massachusetts – Amherst; Ron Baiman, University of Illinois – Chicago; Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research; Drucilla K. Barker, Hollins University; David Barkin, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana – Unidad Xochimilco; William A. Barnett, University of Kansas and Washington University; Timothy J. Bartik, Upjohn Institute; Bradley W. Bateman, Grinnell College; Francis M. Bator, Harvard University Kennedy School of Government; Sandy Baum, Skidmore College; William J. Baumol, New York University; Randolph T. Beard, Auburn University; Michael Behr; Michael H. Belzer, Wayne State University; Arthur Benavie, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill; Peter Berg, Michigan State University; Alexandra Bernasek, Colorado State University; Michael A. Bernstein, University of California – San Diego; Jared Bernstein, Economic Policy Institute; Rari Bhandari, University of California – Berkeley; Melissa Binder, University of New Mexico; Peter Birckmayer, SUNY – Empire State College; L. -
Fed Chair Power Rating
Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Name: Date: Directions: Sports fans often assign a “power rating” to teams and players to measure their strength. In today’s activity, we will research some of the most recent chairs of the Federal Reserve and assign them “power ratings” to express how truly influential they have been in the United States economy. In this activity, we will judge each person’s prerequisites, ability to play defense and offense. Chair (circle one): Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 1. Prerequisites will be measured by academic background, research, and previous career qualifications. 2. Offensive acumen will be evaluated using the chair’s major accomplishments while in office and whether he/she was successful in accomplishing the goals for which he/she was originally selected. 3. Defensive strength will be determined by the chair’s ability to overcome obstacles, both in the economy and political pressures, while holding the chairmanship. 4. The chair in question may receive 1-4 points for each category. The rubric for awarding points is as follows: 1 - extremely weak 2 - relatively weak 3 - relatively strong 4 - extremely strong 5. BONUS! Your group may award up to 2 bonus points for other significant accomplishments not listed in the first three categories. You may also choose to subtract up to 2 points for major blunders or problems that emerged as a result of the chair’s policies. 6. This is a group activity, so remember that you and your team members must come to a consensus! Prerequisites Offensive Acumen Defensive Strength Other Details Power 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 Rating Overall Power Rating is __________________________________ 1 Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Strengths Weaknesses Overall Impression Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 2 . -
The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy As Stabilization Policy
The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy as Stabilization Policy Alan J. Auerbach University of California, Berkeley July 2005 This paper was presented at the Bank of Korea International Conference, The Effectiveness of Stabilization Policies, Seoul, May 2005. I am grateful to my discussants, Takatoshi Ito and Chung Mo Koo, and other conference participants for comments on an earlier draft. I. Introduction Perspectives among economists on the usefulness of fiscal policy as a device for macroeconomic management have moved back and forth over the years. Belief in the active use of the tools of fiscal policy may have reached a relative peak sometime during the 1960s or early 1970s, and practice followed theory. In the United States, perhaps the best illustration of the evolution of theory and practice comes from the investment tax credit (ITC), which, when it was in effect, provided businesses with a strong incentive for equipment investment. The ITC, first introduced during the Kennedy administration in 1962, at a rate of 7 percent, was adjusted frequently in response to changes in economic conditions. It was strengthened in 1964, the same year in which major income tax reductions were introduced, suspended in 1966 during a boom associated with the Vietnam War, reinstated in 1967, “permanently” repealed in 1969 during a period of inflationary pressure, reinstated again in 1971, just after the trough of the first recession since early 1961, and increased to a rate of 10 percent in 1974, toward the end of the next recession. Although not necessarily conceived originally as a tool for stabilization policy, the ITC clearly became one during this period. -
August 5, 2021 the Honorable Janet Yellen Secretary of the Treasury
August 5, 2021 The Honorable Janet Yellen The Honorable Katherine Tai Secretary of the Treasury United States Trade Representative 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 600 17th Street NW Washington, DC, 20220 Washington, DC 20508 Dear Secretary Yellen and Ambassador Tai: On behalf of the undersigned organizations, we write to express our support for continued engagement with China on trade and economic issues, including full implementation of the U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement (“Phase One”), and swift action to address the costly and burdensome tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. We support the Biden Administration holding China accountable to its Phase One commitments, and we strongly urge the Administration to work with the Chinese government to increase purchases of U.S. goods through the remainder of 2021 and implement all structural commitments of the Agreement before its two-year anniversary on February 15, 2022. The Chinese government has met important benchmarks and commitments made in the agreement that benefit American businesses, farmers, ranchers, and workers. For example, the commitment by China to open up its markets to U.S. financial institutions – and other U.S. financial service providers – reflects a hard-won U.S. achievement, and years of work by administrations of both parties. The chapter 3 commitments have been good for American agriculture, addressing most long-standing market access barriers. China has removed market access barriers for some U.S. fruits and grains and for nearly all U.S. beef products, as well as expanded its list of U.S. facilities eligible to export beef, pork, poultry, seafood, dairy, feed additives, and infant formula to China, among other actions. -
Who Should Be the Next Fed Chairman?
A SYMPOSIUM OF VIEWS THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY 888 16th Street, N.W. Suite 740 Washington, D.C. 20006 Phone: 202-861-0791 Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com [email protected] Who Should Over the next several years, commentators will speculate Be the on the identity of the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors once Alan Greenspan’s Next Fed tenure ends in 2006. Instead of speculation centered on who is likely to be next, per- haps the initial question should relate to who should Chairman? assume the post many describe today as “central banker to the world”? 44 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY FALL 2004 TIE ASKED DOZENS OF EXPERTS Among those mentioned as possible replacements:* Bob Rubin Martin Feldstein Larry Summers Ben Bernanke William McDonough Joseph Stiglitz Lawrence B. Lindsey Robert McTeer Janet Yellen Glen Hubbard David Malpass Robert Barro Ian Macfarlane Bill Gross *Note: Selections made prior to November 2 U.S. presidential election. FALL 2004 THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY 45 BARNEY FRANK Member, U.S. House of Representatives, and senior GEORGE SOROS Democrat on the Financial Chairman, Soros Fund Services Committee Management f John Kerry is elected President, I will urge strongly Bob Rubin is by far the most qualified. the appointment of Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz Ito chair the Fed. That position has become the single most influential office affecting national economic pol- icy, and Stiglitz’s commitment to and understanding of the importance of combining economic growth with a concern for economic fairness are sorely needed. Given the increasing role that globalization plays, his interna- tional experience is also a great asset. -
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015
CURRICULUM VITAE August, 2015 Robert James Shiller Current Position Sterling Professor of Economics Yale University Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics P.O. Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 Delivery Address Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics 30 Hillhouse Avenue, Room 11a New Haven, CT 06520 Home Address 201 Everit Street New Haven, CT 06511 Telephone 203-432-3708 Office 203-432-6167 Fax 203-787-2182 Home [email protected] E-mail http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller Home Page Date of Birth March 29, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Marital Status Married, two grown children Education 1967 B.A. University of Michigan 1968 S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1972 Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Employment Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, 2013- Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University 2008-13 Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics Yale University 1989-2008 Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1982-, with joint appointment with Yale School of Management 2006-, Professor Adjunct of Law in semesters starting 2006 Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1981-82. Professor of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, and Professor of Finance, The Wharton School, 1981-82. Visitor, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1980-81. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1974-81. 1 Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Center for Economics and Management Science, Cambridge; and Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1974-75. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 1972-74. -
Meet the New Boss, Same As the Old Boss (Part II)
Samuel Miller CFA, CAIA Senior Analyst Deron T. McCoy CFA, CFP®, CAIA, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss (Part II) Four years ago in our December 2013 SEIA Report titled, “The Federal Reserve: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss”, we offered reasons why analyzing the human makeup of the Board is so important (hint: they more or less set monetary policy for the world, affecting global capital markets everywhere). We opined that the new incoming Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was very much in line with her predecessor and that her appointment was a “signal to all investors that easy monetary policy will be the policy of choice for the foreseeable future” and “short-term interest rates might be low for another three years extending through 2016.” We concluded by stating “Yellen’s policies should support ‘risk assets’ (Equities, High Yield Bonds, etc.) in the near term with her hopeful goal of higher inflation and economic overheating (not a typo) four years out which will in turn convolute her reappointment process (in 2017).” Four years have now passed and while we can claim victory on our assessment of the stock market, our view of an overheated economy came up a bit short. As such, the reappointment process caused nary a ripple in global markets as the new-new boss is the same as the old-old boss. Who is Jerome Powell? On November 2, 2017, President Trump nominated Jerome “Jay” Powell to be the next Fed chair, providing clarification for the market and lessening monetary policy uncertainty in the near and intermediate term. -
A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
10922-01_Gordon_REV.qxd 1/25/08 11:05 AM Page 1 ROBERT J. GORDON Northwestern University A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard YOUNGER READERS OF THIS volume may not appreciate how creative was the invention of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, how much it changed the way applied economics is communicated, and how magic has been its appeal to economists young and old, the novices and the famous, over its many years of operation. Within ten years of its creation, it had become one of the four most circulated academic journals in economics. The Brookings Papers started at 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, 1970, with my first paper on the Phillips curve,1 which was discussed by none other than George Perry and Robert Solow. Right from the start, the Brookings Papers was the place to go to for up-to-date analysis of the macroeconomic puzzles of the day. A scorecard of frequent contributors to the Brookings Papers over the years would include many of the great and famous economists of our day: not just Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, but other luminaries including Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, and Lawrence Summers, not to mention the Nobel Prize contingent of George Akerlof, Franco Modigliani, Edmund Phelps, Robert Solow, and James Tobin. It is a supreme tribute to Perry and Brainard— and to Arthur Okun, the journal’s cofounder with Perry—that, when they asked, these people came, whether they were famous then or would become so only later. -
Argentina's Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies After the Convertibility
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH April Argentina’s Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies after the Convertibility Regime Collapse • ii Contents Introduction 1 1. The Convertibility Regime 2 2. The Post-Convertibility Macroeconomic Regime and Performance 9 2.1 The Main Characteristics of the Economic Recovery 10 2.2 The Evolution of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies 16 3. A Macroeconomic Policy Regime with a SCRER as an Intermediate Target 25 3.1 The Orthodox Arguments Against RER Targeting 26 3.2 The Exchange Rate Policy 29 3.3 The Exchange Market and Capital Flows 30 3.4 Monetary Policy 31 Conclusion 35 References 36 Chronological Appendix 39 About the Authors Roberto Frenkel is a senior research associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. and Principal Research Associate at the Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES) in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Martín Rapetti is a research assistant at CEDES and a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Acknowledgements This paper was written as part of an international research project on Alternatives to Inflation Targeting for Stable and Equitable Growth co-directed by Gerald Epstein, PERI and Erinc Yeldan, Bilkent University. The authors thank the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Ford Foundation and UN-DESA for financial support. Additionally, Nelson Barbosa-Filho, Erinc Yeldan and the participants in the workshop on “Alternatives to Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy for Stable and Egalitarian Growth in Developing Countries” held at CEDES in May 13-14, 2005 contributed comments to a previous version of this paper. Finally, the authors thank Julia Frenkel for her collaboration and Erinc Yeldan and an anonymous referee from World Development for their comments and suggestions.