CHAPTER 3 STATE OF THE REGION

1. OVERVIEW

The Eastgate Region (hereafter the Region) located in northeast Ohio is defined as both Mahoning and Trumbull Counties. The Region was originally part of the Western Reserve Territory, an early extension of the state of Connecticut. The Region is situated within 25 miles of both Lake Erie and the Ohio River and is bounded on the north by Ashtabula County, on the west by Geauga, Portage and Stark counties, on the south by Columbiana County, and on the east by Pennsylvania.

As of 2010, the Region is home to approximately 449,135 people encompassing an area of 1,049 square miles, or 671,360 acres. The area is comprised of 63 cities, villages and townships. Mahoning County has a population of 238,823 while Trumbull County has 210,312. The largest city in Mahoning County is Youngstown with a population of 66,971 residents. The largest city in Trumbull County is Warren with a population of 41,557 residents. The largest single site employer is the General Motors Complex located in the Village of Lordstown, Trumbull County.

The Region is served by a variety of transportation modal choices. The Youngstown Warren Regional Airport is located in southeast Trumbull County, and the Greyhound bus terminal is located at the Federal Street Station in downtown Youngstown; sharing the same location with the Western Reserve Transit Authority. The Region is further serviced by an extensive network of roads, transit services, bikeways, and pedestrian facilities; providing connectivity, mobility, and accessibility, within and outside of the region. Freight infrastructure and facilities support the efficient movement of freight passing through and moving within the Eastgate Region. There are 3,962.91 miles of non interstate or turnpikes; 35.17 miles of turnpike; 43.24 center-line miles of interstate; 61.87 miles of bicycle facilities, and an annual transit ridership of 1,399,364.

Population projections for the area were obtained from the Ohio Department of Development, Office of Policy Research and Strategic Planning. From 2000 to 2040 the Mahoning Valley is expected to lose a total of 32, 534 persons for a decrease of 7.8%. Mahoning County is projected to decrease by 17,818 persons while Trumbull County will lose an additional 14,716 persons.

2. THE MAHONING VALLEY TODAY

When the Mahoning Valley is mentioned, historically iron and steel comes to mind. Going as far back as the early 1800’s the Mahoning Valley was known for its steelmaking. The first blast furnace west of the Alleghenies was erected in Poland Township, near Youngstown. Urban land uses followed the river valleys; heavy industries were located along the rivers, which also provided a major source of water.

Those same areas today have a few small pockets of employment at those original locations even though the Region’s economy has since diversified from its industrial base. Many of the industry sites have since been abandoned leaving the cities with the task of remediating the sites for cleaned up and infill for new activity. Many cities along the river are promoting “brownfield redevelopment and infilling old industrial sites; it is time consuming but a worthwhile process.

Recently the Mahoning Valley has shown signs of an economic recovery. The Mahoning Valley has been attempting to diversify and improve employment opportunities since the mid 2000’s, but it was not until the latter part of 2010 up through and including 2012, that the Mahoning Valley started to gain recognition from across the country for “reinventing” itself through the post “old steel era.” The timing of these events are post 2010 Census.

Through the Youngstown Business Incubator (YBI), small startups in the hardware and software designed technologies began to take hold. YBI decided to focus on only companies that developed software for other businesses. Some of these small companies are now nationally recognized nationally and located in downtown Youngstown such as:

• Turning Technologies-recognized as the fastest growing software company in the United State by Inc. Magazine; • M-7 Technologies, and engineering, manufacturing and research organization was named employer of the year; • $70 million grant for a Tech Belt Hub announced by the U.S. undersecretary of defense that will be known as the National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (NAMII); bringing more than 65 private businesses, universities and nonprofit organizations under one roof.

The Mahoning Valley is also primed and position for the Utica and Marcellus shale exploration and expansion. Companies are coming into the area and bringing spin off industries along with them.

• V&M Star – a private company (Vallourec Company - Paris, France) invested $650 million to construct a state of the art pipe mill that makes seamless piping and it directly position for the Utica and Marcellus; another $350 million is set for the construction of a melt shop. 350 permanent jobs-90% hired

• Exterran Energy Solutions – invested $13 million; produces oil and gas exploration and extraction equipment used in the oil and gas industry.

• Exal Corporation – invested $300 million; produces aluminum cans

“In 2010 the Youngstown-Boardman-Warren metropolitan statistical area (MSA) saw the highest rate of growth of the 100 largest U.S. MSAs in the value goods exported as the value of those exports reached $2.9 billion…”1

“For the first time in more than a decade, employment in the Mahoning Valley is not only growing but increasing faster than the rest of Ohio…The Valley’s employment boost outpaced larger metro areas such as Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Columbus and quickly has earned itself the unofficial title of the comeback city.”2

All good news, but also occurring post 2010 Census. According to the 2010 Census, population, labor force and housing units continue to decline. However, employment levels in the Region continue to show a gradual increase.

3. DATABASE

The process of developing a long range metropolitan transportation plan begins with the production and maintenance of an accurate database that describes the major characteristics of the study area. This database, essentially an inventory of specific types of information impacting travel demand, is important in that it provides an understanding of past and current conditions. In addition, the database is necessary in order to make rational forecasts concerning regional growth and changes in travel demands to the horizon year. This MTP uses a base year from 2000 and a forecast year of 2040. Subsequent databases between the base year and forecast year have been created to support the transportation model. Since the release of the 2010 Census, Eastgate was able to collect and use this data to aid in the projection of the variable data.

1 The Brookings Institution http://www.brookings.edu/report/2012/0308_expports.aspx 2 Youngstown Vindicator Valley’s growth in jobs outpaces state’s; February 3, 2012 The database utilized in the development of this 2040 MTP resulted from the information obtained during the completion of the 2030 LRTP in 2002, the Update to the 2030 LRTP in 2005; and the Last Update to the 2030 LRTP in 2009. All information maintained through the Agency's transportation planning process can be cataloged into one of three categories. The first category includes an inventory of the location and classification of generalized land use activities, the second describes the existing transportation facilities, and the third has been completed using the revised Ohio Department of Development Office of Policy Research and Strategic Planning population figures.

The general pattern of urban development within Mahoning and Trumbull Counties is a major determinant for both the current and projected demands placed upon the area's transportation system. Density, spatial distribution, and interaction among the various land use activities all impact travel demand within the study area.

The need for comprehensive planning that coordinates issues relating to both land use initiatives and transportation requirements, is quite evident and, indeed, essential. Historically, changes in land use to expedite development without thorough coordination with entities responsible for operation and maintenance of a highway has increased congestion within certain corridors. In an attempt to prevent or at least reduce such occurrences in the future, it is important to reinforce the continuing, cooperative, and comprehensive planning process.

Identification of existing and proposed future land use activities are used to determine the intensity and location of travel patterns which, in turn, have a significant influence on the transportation system. The form, quantity and quality of land use within the region has a direct bearing upon the volume and type of travel which is produced in one area or is attracted to another area. In forecasting future land use activity in conjunction with associated variables, traffic assignments can be processed to determine and measure relationships in travel patterns. Land use surveys and other physical and socio-economic surveillance studies play very important roles in providing Eastgate with integral data for use in the planning process.

The land use-highway interrelationship is part of a continuous decision making cycle in the course of regional development. All parties involved in the decision making loop must recognize the elements of this interrelationship to reduce conflict. This cycle began with land uses that created productions and attractions, thus initiating a need for the construction of transportation facilities. As a result, new and/or improved streets and highways have been constructed. These highway improvements often stimulate additional development, improve accessibility for a limited amount of time, as well as increase the value and potential use of adjacent property. The cycle is constantly changing as land use activity changes. Areas that experience more intensive development generate more trips and thereby demand consideration for additional transportation improvements, while consideration must also be given to those areas that are experiencing reduced activity to maintain their existing transportation infrastructure. Acknowledgment of the cycle is a prerequisite to identifying and prioritizing the areas needs and the associated budgeting of capital to meet those needs. Land use and transportation planning working in concert with one another will not only promote desirable and economical land use development but this cooperative process will also improve the potential for the regional transportation network to adequately serve its component parts.

4. PLANNING AREA DELINEATION

Prior to undertaking the data collection activities required for maintaining the database, Mahoning and Trumbull Counties were allocated to a system of geographical subdivisions. These subdivisions, referred to as traffic analysis zones (TAZs) or traffic zones, vary in size depending upon the density or nature of the urban development. Boundaries of individual traffic zones were determined by defining an area with relatively homogeneous socio-economic characteristics and land use activities. Mahoning and Trumbull Counties is made up of 749 TAZs with 733 being part of the transportation model. The other 16 (referred to external TAZs) cover the rural parts of the area and are included in the data collection efforts.

These 749 TAZs serve as the geographic unit for aggregating base year data as well as for developing the milestone year forecasts of study area activity. Boundaries of the zones within the two counties are shown on Map 3.1. Data collected at the traffic zone level include: population, housing units, labor force, vehicles, median income, hotel rooms, school enrollment and employment by 20 different categories. Each TAZ is divided into four different area types:

• Central Business District (CBD) • Urban • Suburban • Rural

Trip generation and distribution are performed in terms of these zones and then assigned to the model’s highway network. Detail information specific to the ODOT’s Division of Modeling and Forecasting computer modeling process for the Eastgate study area can be reviewed on the State’s website.

A second system of geographically subdividing the study area is by delineating the urban boundary. The urban boundary is designated by the U.S. Census Bureau and includes densely populated areas as well as cities over 5,000 in population. In addition, the urban boundary can be adjusted locally to encompass fringe areas having residential, commercial, industrial, or national defense significance. Consideration is also given to the location of the boundary to include logical control points for transportation linkages such as major intersections and interchanges. After each decennial census, the urban boundary is modified to reflect the current population totals. Eastgate’s urbanized area is often referred to as the Youngstown OH-PA urban area boundary. This bi- state urban boundary was re-designated by the 2010 Census and is illustrated in Map 3.2. The Bureau of the Census released the urban area populations on March 27, 2012. The Bureau of the Census establishes urbanized areas or clusters every ten years by identifying concentrations of urban populations and densities, within a census tract or block. The urban boundaries distinguish Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s), Transportation Management Areas (TMA), and population within an MPO and TMA area.

The delineation of an urban area is pertinent to the distribution and allocation of several federal funding programs for highway and transit. Unlike highway funding that is distributed and programmed by each state, transit funding is distributed and programmed by the Youngstown, OH-PA urban boundary. Population and other factors are used by the transit systems to determine transit allocations for each state. The 2010 Census population for the Youngstown, OH-PA urban area is 387,550. The population of this bi-state region as documented in the previous 2000 Census was listed as 417,437. Within a ten year period, the population in this region decreased by 7.15 percent. The 2000 Urban Area Boundary Map is illustrated in Map 3.3. The illustration in Map 3.4 compares the 2010 and 2000 urbanized areas, as defined by the Census, which were added or deleted to the Youngstown, OH-PA bi-state region. The red shaded areas show that 30.2 square miles was added to the new urban boundary in 2010. The blue shaded areas indicate that 16.2 square miles was deleted from the 2000 urban area. Portions of Lawrence County, PA were added to the new urban boundary, and the urbanized area in Mercer County expanded. According to the 2010 Census, the total population in Mahoning County is 238,823, and 210,312 is listed for Trumbull County. Mercer and Lawrence County population is listed as 116,636, and 91,108 respectively.

The 2010 Youngstown OH-PA Urban Area Boundary as illustrated in Map 4 incorporates the following areas in Pennsylvania: Clark and West Middlesex Boroughs, Shenango and South Pymatuning Townships, the City of Hermitage, and Lawrence County.

Map 3.1 - Mahoning and Trumbull County TAZS by Area Type

Map 3.2 – Youngstown OH-PA 2010 Urban Area Boundary

Map 3.3 – Youngstown OH-PA 2000 Urban Area Boundary

Map 3.4 – 2000 and 2010 Youngstown OH-PA Urban Area Boundary Comparison

5. CENSUS DATA

Census information makes up approximately half of the data collected by traffic zone. Table 3.1 shows the variables and the descriptions for data collected from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

Table 3.1 – Socio-Economic Variables and Descriptions 3

Population Population refers to all people, male and female, child and adult, living in a given geographic area. Labor Force The Civilian Labor Force consists of people classified as employed or unemployed excluding members of the U.S. Armed Forces. Vehicles The number of passenger cars, vans, and pickup or panel trucks of one-ton capacity or less kept at home and available for the use of household members. Housing units A house, an apartment, a mobile home or trailer, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied as separate living quarters, or if vacant, intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from any other individuals in the building and which have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall. For vacant units, the criteria of separateness and direct access are applied to the intended occupants whenever possible.

Median Income The median income divides the income distribution into two equal groups, one having incomes above the median, and other having incomes below the median.

Base year data was collected from the 2000 Census using: Summary File 1; Summary File 3; and the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP). Data was then collected from the latest 2010 Census using; Summary File 1; and the American Community Survey (ACS). Eastgate used the latest county population projections from the Ohio Department of Development (Table 3.2). The projections were allocated to the city and township levels first, and then taken down to the TAZ level. Historic Census population trends (1970 – 2000), for municipalities, townships and by county, were used to aid this effort and are shown in Tables 3.3 and 3.4.

Table 3.2 – County Level Populations4

Total Change County 2010 2040 Loss 2010 - 2040 Mahoning 238,823 221,005 17,818 -7.5% Trumbull 210,312 195,596 14,716 -7.0% Total 449,135 416,601 32,534 -7.2%

3 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau 4 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau Table 3.3 – Historic Census population trends for municipalities and townships Mahoning County5

Change MUNICIPALITIES 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970-2010 YOUNGSTOWN 139,759 115,427 95,706 82,026 66,971 -52.1% STRUTHERS 15,343 13,624 12,284 11,756 10,713 -30.2% CAMPBELL 12,577 11,619 10,038 9,460 8,235 -34.5% LOWELLVILLE 1,836 1,558 1,349 1,281 1,155 -37.1% POLAND 3,097 3,084 2,992 2,866 2,555 -17.5% CANFIELD 4,997 5,535 5,409 7,374 7,515 50.4% NEW MIDDLETOWN 1,664 2,195 1,912 1,682 1,621 -2.6% CRAIG BEACH 1,451 1,657 1,402 1,254 1,180 -18.7% SEBRING 4,954 5,078 4,848 4,912 4,420 -10.8% BELOIT 921 1,093 1,037 1,024 978 6.2% ALLIANCE 0 0 72 58 40 N/A WASHINGTONVILLE 247 333 412 355 348 40.9% COLUMBIANA 0 1 13 362 666 N/A SALEM N/A N/A N/A N/A 4 N/A

Change TOWNSHIPS 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970-2010 MILTON 2,573 2,787 2,666 2,853 2,579 0.2% JACKSON 1,938 2,141 2,164 2,167 2,114 9.1% AUSTINTOWN 34,949 37,664 36,740 38,001 36,722 5.1% COITSVILLE 2,292 2,105 1,841 1,608 1,392 -39.3% POLAND 10,300 10,556 11,001 11,845 12,405 20.4% BOARDMAN 36,110 41,833 41,796 42,518 40,889 13.2% CANFIELD 4,400 4,815 5,422 7,250 8,649 96.6% ELLSWORTH 1,957 2,310 2,103 2,234 2,217 13.3% BERLIN 1,402 2,047 2,070 2,240 2,122 51.4% SMITH 4,500 4,228 3,855 3,895 3,492 -22.4% GOSHEN 2,927 3,481 3,314 3,281 3,243 10.8% GREEN 2,635 2,996 2,909 3,095 3,184 20.8% BEAVER 5,575 5,400 5,420 6,104 6,711 20.4% SPRINGFIELD 5,020 5,920 6,031 6,054 6,703 33.5%

COUNTY TOTAL 303,424 289,487 264,806 257,555 238,823 -15.1%

5 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau

Table 3.4 – Historic Census Population Trends for Municipalities and Townships Trumbull County 6

Change MUNICIPALITIES 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970-2010

WARREN 63,494 56,629 50,793 46,832 41,557 -34.5% NILES 21,581 23,088 21,128 20,932 19,266 -10.7% GIRARD 14,119 12,517 11,304 10,902 9,958 -29.5% McDONALD 3,177 3,744 3,526 3,481 3,263 2.7% HUBBARD 8,583 9,245 8,248 8,284 7,874 -8.3% LORDSTOWN 2,472 3,280 3,404 3,633 3,417 38.2% NEWTON FALLS 5,378 4,960 4,866 5,002 4,795 -10.8% CORTLAND 2,525 5,011 5,666 6,830 7,104 181.3% ORANGEVILLE 268 223 253 189 197 -26.5% WEST 650 563 542 519 499 -23.2% FARMINGTON YANKEE LAKE 43 99 88 99 79 83.7% YOUNGSTOWN 29 9 26 0 11 -62.1%

Change TOWNSHIPS 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970-2010 BAZETTA 4,563 5,121 5,414 6,306 5,874 28.7% BLOOMFIELD 1,144 1,078 1,117 1,097 1,322 15.6% BRACEVILLE 3,098 3,132 2,972 2,887 2,856 -7.8% BRISTOL 2,404 3,151 3,026 3,154 2,919 21.4% BROOKFIELD 9,655 10,836 10,474 9,921 8,775 -9.1% CHAMPION 8,666 9,504 9,189 9,762 9,612 10.9% FARMINGTON 849 1,184 1,355 1,834 2,229 162.5% FOWLER 2,464 3,041 2,868 2,733 2,595 5.3% GREENE 877 903 940 986 1,015 15.7% GUSTAVUS 1,008 1,108 1,031 948 829 -17.8% HARTFORD 1,970 2,236 2,157 2,104 2,070 5.1% HOWLAND 17,380 18,822 18,005 17,546 17,327 -0.3% HUBBARD 7,710 7,275 6,615 6,020 5,654 -26.7% JOHNSTON 1,530 2,012 1,931 2,040 1,952 27.6% KINSMAN 1,922 2,120 2,099 1,943 1,876 -2.4% LIBERTY 12,678 14,338 13,189 12,661 12,062 -4.9% MECCA 1,704 2,695 2,602 2,829 2,674 56.9% MESOPOTAMIA 1,496 1,966 2,533 3,051 3,387 126.4% NEWTON 3,355 4,837 4,675 4,522 4,080 21.6% SOUTHINGTON 3,722 3,723 3,610 3,817 3,717 -0.1% VERNON 1,336 1,635 1,690 1,765 1,536 15.0% VIENNA 4,191 4,344 4,180 3,993 3,980 -5.0% WARREN 9,645 7,940 6,867 7,817 5,551 -42.4% WEATHERSFIELD 6,893 9,494 9,430 8,677 8,400 21.9%

COUNTY TOTAL 232,579 241,863 227,813 225,116 210,312 -3.2%

6 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau

6. EMPLOYMENT DATA

Collection of employment data makes up the other half of the traffic analyses zones. Employment figures directly reflect the number of people traveling to and from their workplace and are very important when forecasting travel demands to a future highway network. Eastgate acquired employment data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The data consisted of a Geographic Information System (GIS) point file and database of all businesses in Mahoning and Trumbull Counties for 2010. Eastgate’s was requested to review and relocate any incorrectly located points. There was also a list of businesses that could not be located. Using a variety of sources (internet, aerial photographs, etc.), Eastgate completed the project and the data was resubmitted to ODOT for inclusion in Eastgate’s model. The updated point file was overlaid with Eastgate’s TAZs allowing the collection of employment data by traffic zone.

The employment database included the number of employees and the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. Eastgate used the NAICS code to group the employment into 20 main categories. Table 3.5 shows the different employment categories used in the transportation model.

Table 3.5 – Employment Categorizes

Agriculture Wholesale Trade Real Estate and Rental Health Care and Social Mining Retail Trade Professional Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Utilities Transportation Management Accommodation Construction Information Administration Other Services Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Educational Other Services

Eastgate used a conservative approach to forecast employment data. Comparisons between the 2012 aerial photography and 2010 photos were analyzed to determine locations of new businesses. Newspaper articles of new or closing businesses were collected and added to a spreadsheet. Local officials were asked to provide Eastgate with a list of potential changes to employment in their areas. Using this data, Eastgate was able to create a future employment picture. Table 3.6 displays the projected employment changes occurring between 2010 and 2040 for Mahoning and Trumbull Counties. Table 3.7 shows county employment data for 2000 through 2040 broken out by four area types used in the TAZs, as previously discussed under the Planning Area Delineation section. Tables 3.8 and 3.9 display employment types by NAICS codes for Mahoning and Trumbull Counties, respectively.

Table 3.6 – Projected Employment Changes Between 2010 and 2040 for Mahoning and Trumbull Counties

Total Change County 2010 2040 Gain 2010 - 2040 Mahoning 133,434 150,065 16,631 12.5% Trumbull 117,114 120,822 3,708 3.2% Total 250,548 270,887 20,339 8.1%

Table 3.7 – County Employment Data 2000 Through 2040 by Area Type

MAHONING COUNTY TRUMBULL COUNTY

Mahoning County Trumbull County 2000 2000 Area Type Employment Area Type Employment CBD 10,600 CBD 8,963 Rural 13,375 Rural 9,505 Suburban 76,458 Suburban 64,096 Urban 32,967 Urban 34,508 Total 133,400 Total 117,072

2010 2010 Area Type Employment Area Type Employment CBD 10,623 CBD 9,093 Rural 13,387 Rural 9,840 Suburban 76,458 Suburban 64,586 Urban 32,967 Urban 34,752 Total 133,434 Total 117,114

2020 2020 Area Type Employment Area Type Employment CBD 10,646 CBD 9,222 Rural 13,398 Rural 10,175 Suburban 76,458 Suburban 65,076 Urban 32,967 Urban 34,996 Total 133,469 Total 117,156

2030 2030 Area Type Employment Area Type Employment CBD 11,100 CBD 9,352 Rural 15,063 Rural 10,509 Suburban 84,628 Suburban 65,566 Urban 33,858 Urban 35,240 Total 144,649 Total 120,667

2040 2040 Area Type Employment Area Type Employment CBD 11,311 CBD 9,482 Rural 15,696 Rural 10,893 Suburban 89,129 Suburban 64,878

Table 3.8 Employment Types by NAICS – Mahoning County

Employment Type 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 NAICS11 - Agriculture 268 252 236 220 220 NAICS21 - Mining 288 271 254 238 240 NAICS22 - Utilities 1,231 1,218 1,205 1,192 1,201 NAICS23 - Construction 9,316 9,511 9,705 9,900 10,135 NAICS31 - Manufacturing 1,829 1,771 1,713 1,655 1,683 NAICS32 - Manufacturing 2,840 3,282 3,724 4,166 5,251 NAICS33 - Manufacturing 9,329 9,996 10,663 11,329 11,416 NAICS42 - Wholesale Trade 6,069 6,200 6,330 6,461 6,729 NAICS44 - Retail Trade 13,401 13,957 14,514 15,070 15,709 NAICS45 - Retail Trade 7,172 7,550 7,929 8,307 8,578 NAICS48 - Transportation 2,864 2,928 2,991 3,055 3,128 NAICS49 - Transportation 2,715 2,797 2,878 2,960 3,035 NAICS51 - Information 2,735 2,788 2,840 2,893 2,969 NAICS52 - Finance and Insurance 5,395 5,485 5,576 5,666 5,796 NAICS53 - Real Estate and Rental 1,755 1,785 1,815 1,845 1,897 NAICS54 - Professional 4,981 5,063 5,144 5,226 5,346 NAICS55 - Management 179 182 186 189 192 NAICS56 - Administrative 8,879 8,861 8,844 8,826 8,833 NAICS61 - Educational 10,024 10,021 10,017 10,014 10,157 NAICS62 - Health Care and Social 15,918 16,422 16,926 17,431 18,032 NAICS71 - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1,430 1,481 1,531 1,582 2,414 NAICS72 - Accommodation 11,465 11,769 12,072 12,376 12,803 NAICS81 - Other Services 5,934 6,176 6,419 6,661 6,887 NAICS92 - Public Administration 7,093 7,093 7,094 7,094 7,117 NAICS99 - Public Administration 291 291 292 292 300 Totals 133,400 137,149 140,899 144,649 150,065

Table 3.9 Employment Types by NAICS – Trumbull County

Employment Type 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 NAICS11 - Agriculture 37 34 32 30 28 NAICS21 - Mining 114 108 101 94 92 NAICS22 - Utilities 588 582 576 570 575 NAICS23 - Construction 5,337 5,448 5,560 5,671 5,797 NAICS31 - Manufacturing 383 371 359 347 349 NAICS32 - Manufacturing 9,639 9,331 9,023 8,715 7,026 NAICS33 - Manufacturing 22,148 21,650 21,152 20,654 20,022 NAICS42 - Wholesale Trade 3,990 4,075 4,161 4,247 4,615 NAICS44 - Retail Trade 10,238 10,831 11,424 12,018 12,441 NAICS45 - Retail Trade 5,040 5,329 5,619 5,908 6,141 NAICS48 - Transportation 1,994 2,041 2,088 2,135 2,127 NAICS49 - Transportation 1,389 1,431 1,472 1,514 1,544 NAICS51 - Information 1,599 1,630 1,661 1,692 1,728 NAICS52 - Finance and Insurance 3,285 3,340 3,395 3,450 3,528 NAICS53 - Real Estate and Rental 1,747 1,777 1,807 1,837 1,895 NAICS54 - Professional 2,749 2,794 2,839 2,884 2,937 NAICS55 - Management 73 74 76 77 78 NAICS56 - Administrative 4,544 4,535 4,526 4,518 4,586 NAICS61 - Educational 7,607 7,605 7,602 7,600 7,718 NAICS62 - Health Care and Social 13,859 14,142 14,425 14,708 14,986 NAICS71 - Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 892 924 955 987 1,019 NAICS72 - Accommodation 8,361 8,582 8,803 9,025 9,325 NAICS81 - Other Services 4,395 4,574 4,754 4,934 5,078 NAICS92 - Public Administration 7,032 7,033 7,033 7,034 7,168 NAICS99 - Public Administration 115 115 115 116 117 Totals 117,155 118,358 119,561 120,764 120,923

7. LAND USE MAPS

Generalized Land Use Maps provide a quantified area-wide overview of existing conditions as well as establish the future framework for development of alternative highway, transit, non-motorized networks based on anticipated changes within the region. Land use maps for Mahoning and Trumbull Counties were created using three digit land use codes for each parcel. The parcel data was obtained from the Auditor’s office of each county and mapped on Eastgate’s Geographic Information System (GIS).

Copies of the 2010 maps were compiled by Eastgate, partitioned by township or municipality and delivered to the appropriate entity within each community. Local officials reviewed the 2010 land use plots to make certain that it was comparable current conditions. The final 2040 maps were offered to local communities to identify future development. Local officials have the greatest knowledge of proposed land use modifications within their jurisdiction. Eastgate staff made a conscientious effort to review the proposed land use environment for the out year, making certain that it would be justifiably realistic and based on economic assumptions from the QCEW. Maps 3.5 and 3.6 on the show 2010 (existing) and 2040 (future) land use for Mahoning and Trumbull Counties.

Map 3.5 – Mahoning and Trumbull Counties 2010 Generalized Land Use

Map 3.6 – Mahoning and Trumbull Counties 2040 Generalized Future Land Use

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