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Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report

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Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report Indicators of Economic Competitiveness Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report • May 2017 1 Title VI/Non-Discrimination Policy It is Eastgate’s Policy that all recipients of federal funds that pass through this agency ensure that they are in full compliance with Title VI and all related regulations and directives in all programs and activities. No person shall, on the grounds of race, color, national origin, sex, age, disability, low-income status, or limited English proficiency, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise subjected to discrimination under any of Eastgate’s programs, policies, or activities. This report was financed by the Economic Development Administration’s Partnership Planning Grant, Eastgate Regional Council of Governments, and the Regional Economic Development Initiative at Youngstown State University. 2 Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report Contents Introduction ............................................4 Population Dynamics ...................................7 Traded Clusters ..........................................10 Peer Metrics ...........................................11 Recommendations .................................16 Data Sources ..........................................18 3 Introduction The Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) for the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments (Eastgate) counties of Ashtabula, Mahoning, and Trumbull was updated in the fall of 2016. The CEDS is the road- map for diversifying and strengthening the regional economy across public, private, and non-profit sectors. The CEDS includes regional priorities and evaluates progress towards achieving goals and objectives that were created through public outreach and steering committees. The CEDS is divided into six pillars, or themes, that provide the foundation for holistic economic development. They include the following: • Workforce/Training & Education • Innovation & Entrepreneurship • Access to Capital • Infrastructure & Site Development • Industry & Business Climate • Quality of Life & Community Vitality The six pillars allude to the importance of developing human capital for the resiliency of the region. Human capital is defined as the skills, knowledge, and experience possessed by a population that are viewed as having economic value. Human capital is tied to the cultural, social, and economic wealth that society may have. The more abundant and diverse human capital is, the more likely a society is to be productive and grow. The human capital of the region is at risk given demographic trends. The following findings are included in the CEDS: The Region is in the bottom quantile for health The Region will shrink by 60,000 people over the next 20 years. By 2030, 1/3 of the outcomes in population the state. will be 60+ Sources: American Community Survey 5-Year, Ohio Development Services Agency County Trends, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings 4 Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report The demographic findings of the CEDS tasked Eastgate and the Regional Economic Development Initiative (REDI) at Youngstown State University (YSU) to evaluate metrics for regions comparable to the Mahoning Valley to determine what differentiates shrinking and growing populations. The team established peer metropolitan regions by using Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA’s) as a baseline. Peers were chosen based on the following criteria: • within population range of three to eight-hundred thousand • not the state capital • not closer than sixty miles from a metropolitan area with a population over one-million • within eight-hundred miles of Youngstown, OH • have less than thirty-thousand higher-education enrolled students Each of the metros chosen have experienced deindustrialization. It is important to note that readily available public information was utilized and no true statistical tests for relationships were calculated for this report. The selection process resulted in the following metros: • Canton, OH • Chattanooga, TN • Davenport, IA • Huntington, WV • Flint, MI • Fort Wayne, IN • Lancaster, PA • Peoria, IL • Reading, PA Scranton, PA • Scranton, PA Flint, MI • Winston-Salem, NC Lancaster, PA • Reading, PA Davenport, IA Fort Canton, OH Wayne, IN Peoria, IL Huntington, WV Winston-Salem, NC Chattanooga, TN 5 POPULATION SHARE OF CORE CITY IN EACH METRO Canton, OH Chattanooga, TN 18% 36% 406, 934 476,421 Davenport, IA Flint, MI 32% 23% 326,019 436,141 Fort Wayne, IN Huntington, WV 15% 71% 362,556 325,455 Lancaster, PA Peoria, IL 13% 32% 470,658 366,889 Reading, PA Scranton, PA 24% 14% 373, 638 560,625 Winston-Salem, NC Youngstown, OH 42% 12% 569,207 556,243 Numbers from 2015 6 Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report POPULATION DYNAMICS Utilizing state and metropolitan planning data and the 2010 United States Census, population projections were calculated for each of the metros for 2020 and 2030. The national population growth rate is expected to be 16% between 2010 and 2030. Canton,OH, Flint, MI, Huntington, WV, and Youngstown, OH are expected to shrink below 2010 levels. Chattanooga, TN and Lancaster, PA are expected to gain population at rates greater than that of the nation for this time-period. Growth in small and mid-sized cities outside of the southern and western parts of the United States counters many assumptions about the nation’s growth. Population Projections for 2030 Chattanooga, TN & Lancaster, PA 18% United States 16% Reading, PA 14% Winston-Salem, NC 14% Fort Wayne, IN 13% Scranton, PA 5% Davenport, IA 3% Peoria, IL 1% Huntington, WV -1% Canton, OH -4% Flint, MI -5% Youngstown, OH -8% 7 with the least international migration are also the metros that are projected todeclineinpopulation. projected thatare metros alsothe are leastinternationalmigration with the metros The resulted inpositivenetgrowth. that byinternationalmigration Peoria, ILdomesticoutflowwasneutralized and PA, IN,Lancaster, Wayne, totalpopulation.InFort ofthe asapercentage to2014 2001 from for eachmetro ofdomesticandinternationalmigration rates the followingchart illustrates The settled County inMahoning (1,383). mostofthem, abroad, MSAfrom tothe migrated MSA.1,727 the peoplefrom wasanetlossof10,149 there 2015, and Between rate. 2010 andmeagerinternationalmigration rate MSAhasanegativedomesticmigration The thanbirths anddeaths. more influencespopulationgrowth migration Inmostregions, individuals. 6,705 inanetlossof deaths,resulting births and36,271 MSAhad29,566 the and2015, example,between 2010 For rate. deathsthanbirths andanegativeyoungpopulationgrowth inmore hasanagingpopulation,resulting Valley Mahoning bothdomesticandinternational.The birth two andmigration, are componentsofpopulationgrowth The rate. populationgrowth maydeterminearegion’s Acomplexnumberoffactors shrinkorgrow? dometros Why 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 Canton, OH Rate of Migration as a Percentage of Total Population2001-2014 asaPercentageofTotal ofMigration Rate Chattanooga, TN Davenport, IA DOMESTIC Flint, MI Fort Wayne, IN Huntingon, WV INTERNATIONAL Lancaster, PA Peoria, IL Reading, PA US ClusterMapping Project Scranton, PA Winston-Salem, NC Youngstown, OH 8 Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report Toledo 57 Cleveland25 Lima Akron • 44 0 48 Canton 23 Columbus 0 Dayton 636 234 Cincinnati Net Metro Area Migrations 2010-2014 Migrations Area Net Metro 145 In the Youngstown metro, comparing outward and inward migration from 2010 to 2014, the greatest domestic net gains to the region are from New York, NY, Washington DC, New Bern, NC, Philadelphia, PA and Chicago, IL. The largest international migration to the region came from Asia. The greatest net losses in the region are to Pittsburgh, PA, Columbus, OH, Phoenix, AZ, Dayton, OH and Sarasota, FL. New York, NY (353) Canton, OH Youngstown, OH Asia (400) Akron (2,717) Washington, DC (301) Youngstown (486) New Bern, NC (205) Asia (411) Philadelphia, PA & Cleveland (377) Growth Chicago, IL (193) Growth Dayton (311) Sarasota (-255) Columbia, SC (-422) Dayton (-234) Pittsburgh, PA (-175) Phoenix, AZ (-455) Nashville, TN (-142) Columbus, OH (-636) Houston, TX (-141) Pittsburgh, PA (-1,065) Ocala, FL (-122) Decline Decline American Community Survey (ACS) Metro-to-Metro Migration Flows 9 TRADED CLUSTERS A traded cluster, or basic industry, is a group of related industries that serve markets beyond the region in which they are located. Looking at traded clusters is one way of understanding the competitive strengths of a region. Traded clusters differ from employment clusters based on job growth. For example, Health Care and Social Services are the largest employers in each of the peer metros with the exception of Chattanooga, TN and Flint, MI where Retail is greatest. However, Health Care and Social Services and Retail in these metros mainly serve the local population and do not attract outside investment. Utilizing the Cluster-Mapping Tool, the top-traded industries by employment for Youngstown in order are: Business Services Distribution & Electronic Commerce Automotive Upstream Metal Manufacturing Food Processing Comparing the traded clusters of each of the peer metros, the metros most similar to Youngstown, OH are: • Canton, OH • Flint, MI • Huntington, WV • Lancaster, PA • Reading, PA Given that Canton, OH, Flint, MI, and Huntington, WV have projected population losses, understanding as to why Fort Wayne, IN, Lancaster, PA and Reading, PA will experience growth requires further investigation. 10 Mahoning Valley Peer Metro Report PEER METRICS Over one hundred and fifty metrics for the
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