Regional Transit-Oriented Development Study

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Regional Transit-Oriented Development Study Transit Oriented Development Opportunities for the South Central Region June 2015 Metro North Shore Line East Hartford Line Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary............................................................1 Introduction........................................................................3 Transit Corridors................................................................6 Demographic Profile..........................................................8 Labor Force Trends.............................................................9 Commercial Market Trends.............................................10 Residential Market Trends...............................................12 TOD Strategies..................................................................14 Approach............................................................................16 Metro North Corridor.....................................................18 Milford Orange West Haven New Haven Shore Line East Corridor................................................65 Branford Guilford Madison Hartford Line Corridor..................................................103 Meriden Wallingford North Haven Conclusion......................................................................141 Prepared by: Transit Oriented Development Opportunities for the South Central Region ii Executive Summary Executive Summary Introduction The South Central Region of Connecticut is home to two existing commuter rails lines and will be serviced by a new commuter rail line in 2016. The region’s employment is growing and employment is shifting away from sectors such as manufacturing, information, and finance & insurance and towards health care & social assistance, educational services, and accommodation & food services. The region is presented with an opportunity to direct jobs and housing towards its expanding commuter rail service. The Metro North New Haven Line is a commuter rail service that serves south of New Haven to/from New York City including branch lines servicing Waterbury, New Canaan, and Danbury. The New Haven Main Line (exclusive of branch lines) serves approximately 40 million riders per year. Metro North offers connecting service to and from Shore Line East. Together, Metro North and Shore Line East provide commuter rail service from New York’s Grand Central Station to New London. Shore Line East is a commuter rail service that provides east-west service along the eastern shoreline of the state between New Haven and New London with limited express service to/from West Haven, Bridgeport and Stamford. Shore Line East runs most of its trains in the westbound direction from New London to New Haven during the morning commute period with the reverse pattern during the afternoon commuting period. The service has been continually upgraded with planned and programmed station improvements along the corridor with a steady and increasing ridership over recent years. Shore Line East serves almost 600,000 riders per year. The Hartford Line is a planned commuter rail service from New Haven to Springfield, MA, including service to Hartford and several other stations along the corridor. This new service will provide connections to Shore Line East and the Metro North New Haven Line at New Haven’s Union Station. The Hartford Line is projected to attract up to 1.26 million trips per year by 2030. The corridor is currently served by Amtrak’s New Haven/Hartford/Springfield rail service. Key Trends and Findings Population and Labor Force • Population within the region is concentrated along rail corridors and is projected to grow by approximately twenty thousand residents by 2025. The population is getting older, with the 55 and over age group growing while the 25 to 34 age group is projected to shrink. • Migration from New Haven County has exceeded migration into New Haven County for several years and is likely to continue. • Connecticut’s economy is recovering from the 2008 recession and the state’s Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow at an increased rate into 2016. • The state’s labor force has grown since 2012 and in-state employment has grown steadily since 2010. The number of jobs in the South Central region is expected to have grown 9.6% between 2012 and 2022. • Connecticut’s labor force will be impacted by retiring baby boomers with the number of 65 year-old workers exceeding the number of 22 year-old workers by 2022. • Employment sectors in the South Central region have shifted from manufactur- ing, information, and finance & insurance towards health care & social assis- tance, educational services, and accommodation & food services. • The largest employment sectors in the region are health care & social assistance, educational services, retail trade, manufacturing, and accommodation and food services. Transit Oriented Development Opportunities for the South Central Region 1 Executive Summary Real Estate Trends & Findings • Commercial vacancy rates have been decreasing nationwide and in Connecticut’s metro areas since 2011, but have been increasing in the New Haven-Milford metro area since 2012. Asking rents for commercial space in the region have been decreasing since 2012. Vacancy rates in the region are highest in the office space market. • Nationwide, home ownership rates have decreased since 2004 with the rentership rate growing since that time. The demand for apartments has increased since 2004 with the rising demand in rentership. • The number of housing permits issued in New Haven County has remained relatively flat since 2008 with approximately one thousand permits issued per year, down from the two thousand permit average prior to 2004. Among the study area communities, most of the permits issued were in Milford and New Haven, which also had the only multi-unit permits. • Home values in the New Haven metro area have declined significantly since 2006 and have been flat since 2012. By contrast, rental costs have increased since 2011 and have experienced a spike in the past year. • With the exception of Meriden and New Haven, station area median incomes are relatively high, varying from $50,643 in West Haven to $90,676 in Orange. Transit Service & • Commuting to work via rail transit in the region’s station areas is relatively low, Commuting Patterns less than 7% across station areas. With the exception of New Haven, a high percentage (68% to 85%) of workers living in station areas drive to work alone. The national station area average is 54%. • Station area households in the region have a significantly higher rate (1.2-1.85 per household) of auto ownership than the average ownership rate (1.1 per household) for transit areas across the country. • The Metro North New Haven Line corridor holds the most promise for transit oriented development based upon its level of transit service and ridership which are significantly higher than the Shore Line East or Hartford Line corridors. Station Area Findings • Most station areas, with the exception of North Haven and Orange, are mostly built-out with little vacant land that is suitable for development. There are, however, numerous opportunities across the station areas for redevelopment and infill development. • The development densities typically associated with TOD will be difficult to achieve in Guilford and Madison given the lack of sewer infrastructure in those station areas. • Most cities and towns in the region that have train stations have adopted TOD zoning or zoning that is supportive of mixed-use and/or high density residential development. North Haven, which does not yet have a station, does not have TOD zoning or TOD supportive zoning. Recommended Regional • The South Central Region is well positioned to facilitate TOD in the region by: & Local Approaches coordinating with large employers in the region to direct future expansions to station areas; working with transit providers to provide better connectivity between different modes of transit or transportation at station areas; directing discretionary funds to station areas; and providing ongoing technical assistance to municipalities along the region’s transit corridors. • Towns and cities in the region can encourage TOD by: leveraging state and regional resources; adopting TOD supportive zoning and design standards; directing economic development towards and within station areas; enhancing station area connectivity; and providing needed infrastructure in station areas. Transit Oriented Development Opportunities for the South Central Region 2 Introduction Introduction The South Central Regional Council of Governments (SCRCOG)’s goal is to support transportation and land use planning that will provide an efficient and functional multi-modal transportation system within the region. One of the most exciting and fast growing trends in the transportation industry is transit-oriented development (TOD), the creation of compact, walkable, mixed-use communities centered around high quality transit systems. The South Central Region has a great opportunity to promote and support TOD due to its context and location. The region is comprised of fifteen municipalities, ten of which have existing rail stations or stations that are planned for development in the near future (Branford, Guilford, Madison, Meriden, Milford, New Haven, North Haven, Orange, Wallingford, and West Haven). These municipalities are serviced by the Interstate 95 and Interstate 91 highway corridors, multiple state routes, local and regional bus service, and multiple rail services. Transit Oriented
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