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Home , Donald Tusk, Hanna Suchocka, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, Jan Olszewski, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, Leszek Miller

NOVEMBER CBOS 2007

ISSN 1233 - 7250 THE ATTITUDES TO FOREIGN POLITICIANS IN THIS ISSUE: The commonly recognize the IMPORTANT PERSONS IN presidents and the and , George INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: R THE ATTITUDES W. Bush and Vladimir Putin. The presidents of two (%) 44 16 7 8 25 TO FOREIGN Eastern neighbours of , Victor Yushchenko POLITICIANS 42 17 14 7 20 of the Ukraine and Alexander Lukashenko of Victor Yushchenko 40 20 16 10 14 George W. Bush 39 18 31 6 6 Byelorussia, are almost equally well known. The 36 20 10 9 25 best-known politicians also include the German 32 19 19 10 20 R THE ATTITUDES TO Chancellor Angela Merkel and the former French 31 17 6 7 39 DEMOCRACY Condoleezza Rice 31 13 8 7 41 President Jacques Chirac. Vaclav Klaus 31 18 6 9 37 Among the foreign politicians mentioned Dalai lama 30 13 4 7 46 in our survey, no one is clearly liked by most Poles. Gerhard Schröder 25 19 20 9 26 24 18 5 7 46 R HIGH EXPECTATIONS Relatively, the former British Prime Minister Tony José Manuel Barroso 19 11 4 7 60 FOR THE GOVERNMENT Blair is seen in the most positive light. He is liked by Victor Yanukovych 15 17 28 9 31 OF more than two-fifths of the Poles and disliked by Vladimir Putin 14 16 56 7 7 Valdas Adamkus 13 13 3 7 64 very few. Four more politicians achieved a similar Gordon Brown 13 14 4 5 64 result: the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Alexander Lukashenko 11 14 54 9 12 President of the Ukraine Victor Yushchenko, the José Luis Zapatero 9 13 4 6 68 R 3 8 24 83 EARLY RETIREMENT U.S. President George W. Bush, and Yulia AND PAID WORK Ferenc Gyurcsány 3 8 5 3 80 OF PENSIONERS Tymoshenko, one of the leading players on the Hu Jintao 2 8 4 3 82 Ukrainian political scene. like neither like dislike difficult to say does not In contrast, the Russian President Vladimir nor dislike recognize Putin and the Byelorussian President Alexander IMPORTANT PERSONS IN Lukashenko are usually disliked. More than half of INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: PUBLIC OPINION the respondents declare negative feelings for them. Dalaj lama 1,79 RESEARCH CENTER Until 2004, the Poles invariably liked the Tony Blair 1,30 - CBOS - successive U.S. Presidents the most. In 1991, as Nicolas Sarkozy 1,14 many as 87% of the respondents declared positive Condoleezza Rice 1,08 4a Żurawia José Manuel Barroso 1,07 00-503 Warszawa feelings for George Bush. This situation continued Vaclav Klaus 1,03 POLAND in the following years. 75% of the Poles liked Bill Angela Merkel 0,96 Clinton in 1994, and 73% liked George W. Bush in Yulia Tymoshenko 0,91 Ph: (48 22) 629 35 69 2002. Valdas Adamkus 0,85 (48 22) 628 37 04 Romano Prodi 0,78 (48 22) 693 46 91 THE ATTITUDE TO GEORGE W. BUSH Victor Yushchenko 0,77 80% Gordon Brown 0,60 Fax:(48 22) 629 40 89 70% Jacques Chirac 0,30 60% José Luis Zapatero 0,28 E-mail: [email protected] 50% 0,08 http://www.cbos.pl Like George W. Bush 40% Robert Fico 0,02 Dislike 30% -0,11 Gerhard Schröder Editors: Neither like nor dislike 20% -0,47 Krzysztof Zagórski Ferenc Gyurcsány 10% -0,55 Hu Jintao and Beata Roguska 0% -0,84 Victor Yanukovych VI I VII I VII I IX I X Translated by 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2007 2007 -1,87 Vladimir Putin Kinga Pawłowska "Difficult to say" and "do not recognize" answers were disregarded -2,29 Alexander Lukashenko The feelings for President Bush deteriorated in 2003, probably due to the situation in © COPYRIGHT BY CBOS 2007 , but he remained the unchallenged leader among the foreign politicians mentioned then in our survey. The situation changed dramatically before the American elections in 2004, in ALL SOURCES MUST BE CREDITED WHEN ANY PART OF THIS connection with growing criticism of the President's policy in both the American and the PUBLICATION IS REPRODUCED international media. The Polish media also covered this issue extensively. At the same time, the support for the participation of Polish soldiers in the stabilization mission in Iraq dropped 2 11/2007 significantly. Due to all these reasons, for the first time Although to date the Poles were not satisfied with the declared support for the U.S. President dropped well the way democracy functions in Poland, they invariably below 50%, although he still remained one of the most accepted democracy as an ideal political system. liked foreign politicians. Today George Bush occupies Currently the level of acceptance for it is higher than ever the fourth position in the ranking of the most liked before. Almost three quarters of the Poles (74%) agree politicians. At the same time, however, he is the third with the opinion that democracy is superior to all other most disliked one. forms of government. The respondents described their attitude to a DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE STATEMENT particular individual with the use of an eleven-degree THAT DEMOCRACY IS SUPERIOR TO ALL OTHER FORMS scale, whose extremes indicated deep dislike (-5) and OF GOVERNMENT? very positive feelings (+5). The average scores obtained 80% by different politicians on this scale, calculated only for Agree the respondents knowing given politicians, indicate that 60% Dalai lama is seen in the most positive light. The second politician most liked by those who recognize him is Tony 40% Blair, although the distance to the first one is rather big. Difficult to say 20% More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report Disagree (in Polish):The attitude to foreign politicians , November 2007. 0% X VI XI V IX X XI X III IV XXIIII V II XI IV VXI Survey executed in October 2007. A representative random sample of 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 20012002 2004 2006 2007 adult Poles. N = 1385. The level of identification with democracy is also the highest ever. For the first time most Poles (58%) THE ATTITUDES declare that they do care whether Poland is governed in accordance with the rules of democracy or not. TO DEMOCRACY DO YOU AGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: "IT IS IN FACT IRRELEVANT FOR PEOPLE LIKE MYSELF WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT IS DEMOCRATIC OR NOT"? Early Parliamentary elections, which were held 60% in October, met with great interest of the public. The Agree turnout was relatively high for Poland. It reached almost 50%

54% (compared with below 41% two years ago). Political 40% commentators frequently noted that the election was in Disagree fact a referendum in which the people voted for or against 30% the ruling rightist party (PiS). The (PO) 20% Difficult to say won and formed a ruling coalition with the Polish Peasant Party (PSL). The election and the resulting political 10% changes significantly contributed to an improvement of 0% X VI V III X III V IX XI IV XI the opinion about democracy. The opinions about the way 1992 1993 1995 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 democracy works in Poland have never been so positive. The feeling of political alienation decreased in For the first time since we started analyzing the connection with the fact that authoritarian tendencies evaluations of Polish democracy (i.e. since November became weaker. In late 2006, 29% of the respondents 1993), more respondents expressed satisfaction with the agreed with the opinion that a government based on way it functions in Poland (46%) than disappointment strong leadership is better than a democratic government. (42%). Now below a fifth of them (18%) think so. DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE STATEMENT IN GENERAL, ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED THAT A GOVERNMENT BASED ON STRONG LEADERSHIP IS WITH THE FUNCTIONING OF DEMOCRACY IN POLAND? DEFINITELY BETTER THAN A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT? 80% Dissatisfied Agree Disagree Difficult to say XI 2006 29% 45% 26% 60% IV 2007 23% 53% 24%

40% XI 2007 18% 62% 20%

Satisfied 20% More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report (in Polish):A look at democracy after the Parliamentary election , Difficult to say 0% November 2007. Survey executed in November 2007. A XI V XXIX V III XII IV XXIIII III VII V XI IX XI II XI IV VXI 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 representative random sample of adult Poles. N = 863.

PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 11/2007 3

HIGH EXPECTATIONS The Prime Minister personally is very popular. Almost 62% of the respondents are glad that Mr Tusk is FOR THE GOVERNMENT the Prime Minister.

OF DONALD TUSK ARE YOU GLAD THAT PRIME MINISTER ... IS THE HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT? The government of Donald Tusk begins its term with a large credit of trust. No cabinet has awakened such (IX '89) 82% 2% 16% high expectations among the Poles since the government (I '91) 34% 8% 58% of in 1993. Most Poles (59%) believe (I '92) 48% 19% 33% that the new government will contribute to the (VII '92) 67% 6% 27% improvement of the situation in the country. 16% of the Waldemar Pawlak (X '93) 61% 21% 18% respondents are afraid that things could change for worse. Józef Oleksy (IV '95) 52% 20% 28% To date, the cabinet of the first non-communist Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (III '96) 49% 24% 27% Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki, which was formed (XI '97) 47% 13% 40% in October 1989, was welcomed with the greatest (XI '01) 53% 22% 25% enthusiasm. At that time, as many as 82% of the Poles (VI '04) 24% 42% 34% hoped that the new government would bring an (XI '05) 48% 23% 29% improvement. Jarosław Kaczyński (VIII '06) 32% 51% 17% Donald Tusk (XI '07) 62% 22% 16% DOES THE GOVERNMENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER ... MAKE YOU: Yes No Difficult to say

hoping for disappointed, feel afraid that not feel anything Difficult a better future? because nothing things will change in particular, you are not to say The new government was received well by all is going to change? for worse? interested in such things? (%) socio-demographic groups. However, it has particularly Tadeusz Mazowiecki (IX '89) 82 2 3 4 9 Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (I '91) 47 9 21 7 16 many supporters in the social groups and circles which Jan Olszewski (I '92) 29 13 41 8 9 were the most critical about the actions of the government Hanna Suchocka (VII '92) 63 6 7 11 12 of Jarosław Kaczyński. Apparently, the more someone Waldemar Pawlak (XI '93) 65 7 8 11 9 Józef Oleksy (IV '95) 47 12 14 16 11 criticized the previous government, the warmer their Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (II '96) 42 13 11 24 12 feelings for the new one. The new cabinet has the most Jerzy Buzek (XI '97) 44 11 14 18 12 supporters among the best educated and wealthiest Leszek Miller (XI '01) 48 11 15 15 11 persons, young people and the inhabitants of big cities. Marek Belka (VII '04) 21 16 28 25 10 Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz (XI '05) 44 12 19 16 9 Farmers and rural people in general, as well as older Jarosław Kaczyński (VIII '06) 31 23 34 12 persons, have relatively less positive attitude to the new Donald Tusk (XI '07) 59 8 16 10 7 government. More than half of the Poles (57%) expect the More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report (in cabinet of Donald Tusk to be better than the cabinet of Polish):The attitude to the government of Donald Tusk , November Jarosław Kaczyński. One in six respondents (17%) 2007. Survey executed in November 2007. A representative random believe that the new cabinet will be the same as the sample of adult Poles. N = 863. previous one, and one in eight (12%) expect it to be worse. EARLY RETIREMENT AND THE ATTITUDE TO THE SUCCESSIVE CABINETS PAID WORK OF PENSIONERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THEIR TERM

Waldemar Pawlak (XI '93) 61% 20% 12% 7% Poles leave the labour force at a relatively young Józef Oleksy (IV '95) 33% 37% 24% 7% age, and the so-called effective retirement age is among Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (III '96) 42% 30% 22% 6% the lowest in the EU. In recent years, the number of Jerzy Buzek (XI '97) 48% 33% 12% 7% pensioners has been growing significantly faster than the Leszek Miller (XI '01) 50% 28% 15% 7% number of persons who have reached the retirement age Marek Belka (VI '04) 18% 42% 30% 10% (60 years for women and 65 for men). Last year, the Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz (XI '05) 41% 36% 15% 9% average age of actual retirement was 56.0 for women and Jarosław Kaczyński\ (VIII '06) 28% 31% 36% 5% 58.7 for men. Consequently, the employment rate in the Donald Tusk (XI '07) 54% 22% 19% 5% 55-64 age group is just above 26%. Should this situation Supporters Indifferent Opponents Difficult to say continue, the Polish social security system will become Compared with its predecessors, the new inefficient. For this reason, the need to encourage government enjoys strong public support. More than half pensioners to go back to work, increase the retirement age of the Poles (54%) support the cabinet, while below a fifth and limit retirement privileges is discussed more and (19%) are in opposition to it. more often.

PUBLIC OPINION RE SEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 4 11/2007

In the opinion of two-thirds of the respondents, WHAT IS YOUR OPINION CONCERNING PENSIONERS' WORK? early retirement benefits the employees who decide not IV 2002 X 2007 to wait until they reach the retirement age.Almost half of The pensioners who want to the respondents believe that it benefits the labour force in do extra work should have general. At the same time, almost half of the respondents 47% the right to do it, because restricting the employment of 56% are aware of the fact that early retirement does not have a pensioners would not reduce positive effect on the Polish economy. . or IS EARLY RETIREMENT (BEFORE REACHING THE STATUTORY RETIREMENT AGE) RATHER The pensioners should not work, 43% because when they do they take GOOD OR RATHER BAD FOR: jobs away from young people 37% and unemployment grows. the employees 24% 43% 15% 3% 15% who retire early? 10% Difficult to say 7%

all working persons? 12% 37% 26% 5% 20% WHAT IS YOUR OPINION CONCERNING PENSIONERS' EARNINGS? the Polish economy? 5% 19% 35% 12% 29% IV 2002 X 2007

The persons who retired after reaching Definitely Rather Rather Definitely Difficult good good bad bad to say the statutory retirement age and continue working should have the 42% right to receive both their retirement Those who are against the idea of working after benefit in the whole amount and the reaching the retirement age argue sometimes that it takes payment for their work. 63% jobs away from young people. Many people found this or argument convincing in the period of high unemployment. Now the unemployment is decreasing 43% If a person who retired after reaching the statutory retirement and the social acceptance for paid work of pensioners is age takes a job, his or her pension 27% growing. should be reduced accordingly. 15% In line with growing social acceptance for paid 10% work of pensioners, more and more people accept the Difficult to say right of the persons who retired after reaching the More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report statutory retirement age and continue working to receive (in Polish): Early retirement and paid work of pensioners, November both their retirement benefit in the whole amount and the 2007. Survey executed in October 2007. A representative random remuneration for their work. sample of adult Poles. N = 1385.

In addition to the reports referred to above, the following have been published recently (in Polish):

u The Election Code for the elections For more information on CBOS services and publications please contact: u The attitude to intellectual property and copyrights CBOS POLAND u Do Poles think about their future pensions? 4a, Żurawia, 00-503 Phones: (48 22) 629 35 69, 628 37 04 u Political party preferences in November Fax: (48 22) 629 40 89

u The attitudes to disabled persons e-mail: [email protected] http://www.cbos.pl u Social optimism after the parliamentary elections Yearly subscription rate for “Polish u The role of television in the election campaign Public Opinion” is 80 USD u Trust in politicians in the new political situation Circulation: 70 copies u Opinions about the work of the President

u About the date of withdrawal of Polish soldiers from Iraq, the attitude to locating the elements of the anti-missile shield in Poland and fear of terrorism

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