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Home , Bogdan Zdrojewski, Donald Tusk, Janusz Palikot, Waldemar Pawlak

DECEMBER 2011 ISSN 2083-1714 POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR CONTENTS: IN AND ABROAD

R POLITICIAN The title of the politician of the year has been awarded by our respondents to the OF THE YEAR IN POLAND Prime Minister, , and president Bronisław Komorowski (11% each). These two AND ABROAD politicians received markedly better ratings than any competitor. Next in line is Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of PiS (Law and WHICH POLISH POLITICIAN DESERVES THE TITLE Justice), who was mentioned by 5% of OF THE POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR 2011? R POST-ELECTORAL respondents. He is followd by Radosław EXPECTATIONS Sikorski, the Foreign Minister (4%), and by Donald Tusk 11% Bronisł aw Komorowski 11% FROM NEW (3%), the leader and AND GOVERNMENT Jarosłń aw Kaczy ski 5% mastermind of the success of the party Radosł aw Sikorski 4% which unexpectedly was third in the Sejm Janusz Palikot 3% elections. Zbigniew Ziobro 2% R CROSSES Over half of respondents (52%) did 1% IN THE PUBLIC SPACE not mention any politician. Among them, 1% some answered that they cannot mention 1% any politician because no name comes to Ryszard Kalisz 1% R THIRTIETH mind (27%), while others (25%) think that 1% ANNIVERSARY no politician deserves this title. Janusz Korwin-Mikke 1% OF THE MARTIAL LAW The choice of a politician from the 1% international political scene was even more Another name 5% difficult.Almost half of respondents (49%) No-one deserves this title 25% Don't know 27% had a problem mentioning someone, and PUBLIC OPINION about one in seven (14%) believe RESEARCH CENTER WHICH OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICIANS DESERVES that none of the known - CBOS - THE TITLE OF THE POLITICIAN OF THE YEAR 2011? international politicians deserves 19% this title. 4a Żurawia 8% 00-503 Warszawa Jerzy Buzek 2% The international POLAND 2% politician of the year 2011 is, for Ph: (48 22) 629 35 69 José Manuel Barroso 1% the Poles, the German Chancellor (48 22) 628 37 04 1% Angela Merkel, nominated by 19% (48 22) 693 46 91 W³adimir Putin 1% of respondents. Second is the US Another name 3% president Barack Obama (8%), Fax:(48 22) 629 40 89 No-one deserves this title 14% Don't know 49% with much lower result. Next in E-mail: [email protected] line are Jerzy Buzek, the speaker of http://www.cbos.pl the European Parliament (who appeared also in the national context), and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Both of them were mentioned by 2% of respondents. Editor: Beata Roguska More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in Polish: ”Politician of the year in Poland and abroad”, December 2011. Fieldwork for national sample: December 2011 (N=950). The random address sample Translated by is representative for adult population of Poland. Michał Wenzel

© COPYRIGHT BY CBOS 2011 POST-ELECTORAL EXPECTATIONS

ALL SOURCES MUST BE CREDITED FROM NEW SEJM AND GOVERNMENT WHEN ANY PART OF THIS PUBLICATION IS REPRODUCED TheAutumn parliamentary elections did not significantly change the balance of power on the Polish political scene. For the first time since democracy was restored, the governing 2 PPOLISH UBLICO PINION coalition retained power. Donald Tusk again became the DO YOU THINK THAT THE CURRENT SEJM WILL, COMPARED Prime Minister of the government formed by PO (Civic WITH THE PREVIOUS,… Platform) and PSL(Polish Peasant Party). The opposition act more efficiently and effectively 70% is, again, composed of MPs for PiS () and 60% Yes SLD (Alliance of the Democratic Left). The novelty is the 50% 40% presence in parliament of Palikot Movement, a party Don't know No 30% appealing to the left-wing electorate. 20% The expectations from the new Sejm are the 10% lowest since 1989. Until now, at the beginning of the new 0% XI 1997 X 2001 X 2005 XI 2007 XII 2011 parliamentary term, Poles usually hoped it would be better represent societal interests better than the previous one. This time, pessimists (21%) 70% 60% are as numerous as optimists (20%). Almost half of Yes 50% respondents (48%) believe that the new Sejm will be as 40% Don't know No good as the previous. Probably, the least favourable 30% reception of the Sejm since 1989 is due to the effect of 20% continuation, i.e. of replicating the same majority as 10% 0% before. XI 1997 X 2001 X 2005 XI 2007 XII 2011 DO YOU EXPECT THAT THE NEWLY ELECTED SEJM The current parliament is best evaluated for its WILL BE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS? Results of the Sejm of I-VII terms representativity. One-third of the Poles (33%) think that it 60% will better reflect the diversity of values and convictions. 50% Better However, a plurality (44%) disagree with that opinion. 40% Same 30% DO YOU THINK THAT THE CURRENT SEJM WILL BETTER Don't know 20% REFLECT THE DIVERSITY OF VALUES AND CONVICTIONS 10% IN THE SOCIETY COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS? Worse Yes No Don't know 0% I term II term III term IV term V term VI term VII term X 1991 IX 1993 IX 1997 X 2001 X 2005 XI 2007 XII 2011 33% 44% 23% Relatively few respondents expect change as far as the prestige and effectiveness of the Sejm are Little has remained from the expectations concerned. Only slightly more than a quarter hope that the accompanying the formation of the government of current legislature will make better decisions (29%), act Donald Tusk over four years ago. The first PO-PSL more efficiently and effectively (28%), and better government started in favourable economic conditions represent the societal interests (27%). About one-fifth and improving living standards, which added credibility (21%) expect the current Sejm to enjoy better reputation to the electoral promises of further improvement of the in the society. Improvement in this respect is expressed by situation in the country. The current government begins half as many respondent as at the beginning of the its term in the shadow of the crisis in the and previous legislative term, and much fewer than at the uncertainty about the future of Poland and Europe. This beginning of the III, IV and the V term. time, the expose of the Prime Minister was short on promises, and long on restrictions and reductions. It is not DO YOU THINK THAT THE CURRENT SEJM WILL, COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS,… surprising that the new government is associated more

enjoy more prestige in the society often with fears about deterioration (37%) than with hope 70% for improvement (28%). 60% Yes 50% 40% DO YOU ASSOCIATE THE GOVERNMENT Don’t know No 30% OF DONALS TUSK WITH… (%) 20% XI '07 59% 8% 16% 10% 7% 10% 0% XI 1997 X 2001 X 2005 XI 2007 XII 2011 XI '11 28% 16% 37% 14% 6%

make better decisions Hope Disillusion, Fear Indifferent, Don't 70% for the better because nothing of deterioration not interested know 60% Yes will change 50% 40% Don’t know No 30% More information about this topic can be found in CBOS reports in 20% Polish:”Expectations from the new Sejm” and ”Attitude to the new 10% government of Donald Tusk”, December 2011. Fieldwork for national 0% sample: December 2011 (N=950). The random address sample is XI 1997 X 2001 X 2005 XI 2007 XII 2011 representative for adult population of Poland. 3

CROSSES respondents who never go to church this view is shared by 22%, while half are opposed to the cross in the Sejm. IN THE PUBLIC SPACE DO YOU THINK THAT A CROSS SHOULD HANG IN THE PLENARY HALL OF THE SEJM? After a rather long period of low intensity of Definitely Rather Rather Definitely Indifferent Don't public ideological conflicts related to public should should should not should not know manifestation of religious views, the issue of the presence X 1997 24% 28% 15% 14% 16% 3% XII 2009 28% 31% 12% 7% 20% 2% of religious symbols has returned to the public debate. It IX 2010 26% 30% 11% 8% 22% 3% was stimulated by the conflict about the cross in front of XI 2011 33% 27% 7% 10% 21% 2% the presidential palace, which was placed after the crash of the presidential plane in Smolensk. The protest of the The presence of the cross in the Sejm seems to be “defenders of the cross” was perceived by many people as natural for the majority of Poles. However, a large anarchic appropriation of the public space, and it number of people modify their view considering that fact contributed to the increase in popularity of anti-clerical that MPs are people of different denominations. Overall, views. It seems clear that the demand to reduce the role of over half either believe that in the Sejm there should only the Church and its influence on the state was critical for be the cross (34%), or that there should be symbols of all the success of the new party Palikot Movement in the religions whose representatives are represented (19%). recent parliamentary elections. Slightly more than one-third (36%) think, in this case, Legal controversies about the presence of there should be no religious symbols in the plenary hall of the Sejm. religious symbols in the public space make the voice of the public opinion particularly important. IF THERE ARE REPRESENTATIVES OF DIFFERENT RELIGIONS On the most basic level, the acceptance of the IN THE SEJM, SHOULD THERE BE IN THE PLENARY HALL… cross is expressed by the absence of the feeling that it is Symbols of all religions Only cross No religious Don't inappropriate in the public space. Thus understood, the represented in Sejm symbols know acceptance is very broad. A vast majority of people in 19% 34% 36% 11% Poland (88%) do not object to a cross in a classroom or office, while every tenth objects to it. In public discussions there sometimes appeared the argument that the presence of the cross violates the DO YOU OBJECT TO CROSSES IN PUBLIC BUILDINGS, E.G. OFFICES OR SCHOOLS? freedom of non-believers. Most respondents (56%) Object Do not object Don't know disagree with this argument, while 34% agree that the

XII 2009 7% 91% 2% presence of the cross may violate the rights of non- IX 2010 11% 88% 1% believers. This conviction is now less widespread than in XI 2011 10% 88% 2% September 2010, when public opinion was drawn to the conflict about the cross in front of the Presidential Palace. The cross in the hall of the Sejm was put by a group of MPs for the right-wing Solidarity Electoral DOES HANGING THE CROSS IN PUBLIC PLACES (OFFICES, SCHOOLS) VIOLATE THE FREEDOM OF NON-BELIEVERS? Action (AWS) in October 1997. The controversies Definitely Rather Rather Definitely Don't concerned not so much by the constitutionality of the does does does not does not know presence of the cross in the Sejm, as the method by which XII 2009 8% 20% 36% 25% 11% it was placed there. The MPs put it there without IX 2010 11% 27% 34% 17% 11% consultation with representatives of other factions, and XI 2011 9% 25% 34% 22% 10% without permission of the Sejm leadership. In a survey conducted shortly after this event, over half of More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in respondents (52%) agreed that a cross should hang in the Polish:“Crosses in the public space” December 2011. Fieldwork for hall of the Sejm, while 29% disagreed. At presence the national sample: November 2011 (N=969). The random address support for the presence of the cross in the Sejm is even sample is representative for adult population of Poland. more widespread, although it is far from universal: 60% approve of it, and 17% disapprove. Every fifth person THIRTIETH ANNIVERSARY (21%) is indifferent. Opinions about the presence of the cross in the OF THE MARTIAL LAW plenary hall of the Sejm is strongly related to religiosity. The more frequent the declared religious practice, the On 13 Dec. 2011 there was the 30th anniversary more common the declared conviction about the need for of the introduction of the . Societal a cross in the Sejm. It is almost universal among people evaluation of this event is ambiguous. Earlier CBOS practicing several times a week (89%). Among surveys indicated that, in spite of the fact that restrictions 4 PPOLISH UBLICO PINION

and difficulties of that period were alive in collective REASONS WHY MARTIAL LAW WAS INTRODUCED memory, the majority approved of the decision to 35% introduce the Martial Law. Now the opinions are more To avoid civil war 55% 16% diversified. Ten years ago, most Poles (51%) considered 34% To avoid foreign 50% the decision to introduce the Martial Law as proper, while intervention 23% 33% Ruling party wanted 21% 25% disagreed. Now two-fifths (44%) consider it correct, to keep power 55% and one-third (34%) think it was bad. Many people (22%) 31% To stop strikes 23% still refrain from expressing an opinion. 41% To abolish oppositional 31% "Solidarity" 19% LOOKING BACK, HOW DO YOU EVALUATE 52% 29% THE INTRODUCTION OF MARTIAL LAW IN POLAND? To restore law and order 37% 23% (%) 2% All respondents 35 Other reasons 2% 34 2% Respondents agreeing 32 30 11% with Martial Law introduction Don't know 4% Respondents disagreeing 6% with Martial Law introduction 23 24 22 21 22 20 16 16 16 The most important leaders who introduced the 14 14 13 13 13 12 Martial Law have not been tried so far. The case against 10 them has been brought to court by the investigative office of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) and has XII 1994 XI 1996 XI 2001 XI 2011 not been decided. Over one-third of respondents (36%) Definitely Rather Rather Definitely Don't proper proper improper improper know believe that people responsible for the introduction of the Martial Law should not be tried at all. The attitude to the introduction of the Martial Law depends on age. Those born after 13 Dec. 1981, and SHOULD PEOPLE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INTRODUCTION people who were then too young to remember anything, OF MARTIAL LAW IN DEC. 1981 BE TRIED IN COURT? have a predominantly negative opinion about Martial Should have been tried before, Law introduction. Older respondents usually think that it but now is too late Yes, they should be tried 32% was a proper decision. 19% Poles also disagree about the reasons why Martial Law was introduced. Opinions depend on the 13% evaluation of these events. Respondents convinced that 36% Don't know the introduction was proper usually think in this way civil war and foreign intervention was avoided. People No, they should not be tried disagreeing with this move usually explain it by the More information about this topic can be found in CBOS report in desire to maintain power by the ruling Polish United Polish:“Thirtieth anniversary of the Martial Law“ , December 2011. Workers' Party, and by its intention to abolish Fieldwork for national sample: November 2011 (N=969). The random “Solidarity”. address sample is representative for adult population of Poland.

In addition to the reports referred to above, the following have been published recently (in Polish):

u Holiday Trips in 2011 For more information on CBOS services and publications please contact: u Public Perception of Election Campaign and Political Activities on the Internet CBOS POLAND u Party Preferences in December 4a, Żurawia, 00-503 u Post-Election Summary Phones: (48 22) 629 35 69, 628 37 04 u Opinions About Parliament and President Fax: (48 22) 629 40 89 u Social Moods in December e-mail: [email protected] http://www.cbos.pl u Trust in Politicians in December u Christmas Yearly subscription rate for “Polish Public Opinion” is 80 USD u New-Old Government Coalition Circulation: 70 copies u Government in Hard Times. Expectations for Donald Tusk's Cabinet u Twenty Years of Radio Maryja

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