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Internal Politics and Views on Brexit

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Internal Politics and Views on Brexit BRIEFING PAPER Number 8362, 2 May 2019 The EU27: Internal Politics By Stefano Fella, Vaughne Miller, Nigel Walker and Views on Brexit Contents: 1. Austria 2. Belgium 3. Bulgaria 4. Croatia 5. Cyprus 6. Czech Republic 7. Denmark 8. Estonia 9. Finland 10. France 11. Germany 12. Greece 13. Hungary 14. Ireland 15. Italy 16. Latvia 17. Lithuania 18. Luxembourg 19. Malta 20. Netherlands 21. Poland 22. Portugal 23. Romania 24. Slovakia 25. Slovenia 26. Spain 27. Sweden www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 The EU27: Internal Politics and Views on Brexit Contents Summary 6 1. Austria 13 1.1 Key Facts 13 1.2 Background 14 1.3 Current Government and Recent Political Developments 15 1.4 Views on Brexit 17 2. Belgium 25 2.1 Key Facts 25 2.2 Background 25 2.3 Current Government and recent political developments 26 2.4 Views on Brexit 28 3. Bulgaria 32 3.1 Key Facts 32 3.2 Background 32 3.3 Current Government and recent political developments 33 3.4 Views on Brexit 35 4. Croatia 37 4.1 Key Facts 37 4.2 Background 37 4.3 Current Government and recent political developments 38 4.4 Views on Brexit 39 5. Cyprus 42 5.1 Key Facts 42 5.2 Background 42 5.3 Current Government and recent political developments 43 5.4 Views on Brexit 45 6. Czech Republic 49 6.1 Key Facts 49 6.2 Background 49 6.3 Current Government and recent political developments 50 6.4 Views on Brexit 53 7. Denmark 57 7.1 Key Facts 57 7.2 Background 57 7.3 Current Government and recent political developments 59 7.4 Views on Brexit 60 8. Estonia 65 8.1 Key Facts 65 8.2 Background 65 8.3 Current Government and recent political developments 66 8.4 Views on Brexit 67 9. Finland 70 9.1 Key Facts 70 9.2 Background 70 3 Commons Library Briefing, 2 May 2019 9.3 Current Government and recent political developments 71 9.4 Views on Brexit 73 10. France 76 10.1 Key facts 76 10.2 Background 76 10.3 Current Government and recent political developments 77 10.4 Views on Brexit 80 11. Germany 89 11.1 Key facts 89 11.2 Background 89 11.3 Current Government and recent political developments 90 11.4 Views on Brexit 92 12. Greece 103 12.1 Key Facts 103 12.2 Background 103 12.3 Current Government and recent political developments 104 12.4 Views on Brexit 105 13. Hungary 108 13.1 Key Facts 108 13.2 Background 108 13.3 Current Government and recent political developments 109 13.4 Views on Brexit 112 14. Ireland 116 14.1 Key Facts 116 14.2 Background 117 14.3 Current Government and recent political developments 117 14.4 Views on Brexit 118 15. Italy 129 15.1 Key Facts 129 15.2 Background 129 15.3 Current Government and recent political developments 131 15.4 Views on Brexit 135 16. Latvia 141 16.1 Key Facts 141 16.2 Background 141 16.3 Current Government and recent political developments 142 16.4 Views on Brexit 144 17. Lithuania 148 17.1 Key Facts 148 17.2 Background 148 17.3 Current Government and recent political developments 149 17.4 Views on Brexit 150 18. Luxembourg 154 18.1 Key Facts 154 18.2 Background 154 18.3 Current Government and recent political developments 155 18.4 Views on Brexit 156 19. Malta 160 4 The EU27: Internal Politics and Views on Brexit 19.1 Key facts 160 19.2 Background 160 19.3 Current Government and recent political developments 161 19.4 Views on Brexit 161 20. Netherlands 165 20.1 Key facts 165 20.2 Background 165 20.3 Current Government and recent political developments 166 20.4 Views on Brexit 168 21. Poland 175 21.1 Key Facts 175 21.2 Background 175 21.3 Current Government and recent political developments 176 21.4 Views on Brexit 178 22. Portugal 184 22.1 Key facts 184 22.2 Background 184 22.3 Current Government and recent political developments 185 22.4 Views on Brexit 186 23. Romania 189 23.1 Key Facts 189 23.2 Background 189 23.3 Current Government and recent political developments 190 23.4 Views on Brexit 193 24. Slovakia 196 24.1 Key Facts 196 24.2 Background 196 24.3 Current Government and recent political developments 197 24.4 Views on Brexit 198 25. Slovenia 205 25.1 Key Facts 205 25.2 Background 205 25.3 Current Government and recent political developments 206 25.4 Views on Brexit 208 26. Spain 212 26.1 Key facts 212 26.2 Background 212 26.3 Current Government and recent political developments 213 26.4 Views on Brexit 215 27. Sweden 221 27.1 Key Facts 221 27.2 Background 221 27.3 Current Government and recent political developments 222 27.4 Views on Brexit 223 5 Commons Library Briefing, 2 May 2019 Contributing Authors: Eleanor Gadd, Antonia Garraway, Julie Gill, Daniel Harari, Matthew Keep, Sylvia de Mars, Tim Robinson, Matthew Ward Cover page image copyright: EU flags by Jo.schz. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 / image cropped. 6 The EU27: Internal Politics and Views on Brexit Summary Unity of the EU27 and Single Market integrity The EU27 Member States have maintained a largely united front in the Brexit negotiations, adopting joint negotiating guidelines in April 2017 following the UK Government’s Article 50 notification the previous month and mandating Michel Barnier to lead negotiations on their behalf. Examining the positions on Brexit taken by the EU27, a number of common themes emerge, notably insistence on the integrity of the EU Single Market and an unwillingness to divide the four market freedoms (relating to goods, services, capital and people) when it comes to negotiating the future UK-EU trading relationship. This has also come alongside concerns that the new trading relationship should not enable the UK to gain a competitive advantage by retaining participation in some elements of the Single Market while no longer being required to comply with all the requirements of membership, including regulations relating to competition, the environment and labour market. The governments of the EU’s two leading Member States, France and Germany, have been influential in promoting these lines. However, other EU governments have also stressed the importance of the Single Market and the need to balance trading access with certain obligations arising out of membership, including free movement of people. Certain EU governments, notably those of Poland, Hungary and Italy, have for varying reasons been in dispute with the European Commission or other Member States. Both the Polish and Hungarian Governments face questions regarding their compliance with the EU’s rule of law framework and (along with Slovakia) face European Commission infringement proceedings regarding non-compliance with the EU’s refugee relocation plan. The new Italian Government has clashed with other EU governments over its calls for greater burden sharing in relation to migrant and refugee arrivals and its unwillingness to comply with Eurozone budget strictures. However, notwithstanding occasional criticisms of the EU’s approach to negotiations from government figures in these countries, these differences have not translated into any major divergences from the principal EU lines in the negotiations. This partly relates to a preoccupation among these governments with their own national priorities and a lack of coincidence with those of the UK when it comes to the Brexit negotiations. Maintaining trade and security co-operation EU27 governments have expressed a wish to retain a close trading relationship with the UK and a desire to avoid a ‘no deal’ Brexit which would be harmful to EU economies as well the UK. Retaining strong trading links with the UK is a particular consideration for those Member States with a high proportion of trade with the UK, although this is secondary to preserving the Single Market. Table 1 identifies the level of trade each of the EU27 Member States undertakes with the UK, as well as the percentage of GDP to which trade with the UK is equivalent. It is notable that trade with the UK is equivalent to between 13% and 15% of GDP for Belgium, Cyprus, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, and more than 20% for Malta and Ireland. However, for the other 21 Member States trade with the UK is equivalent to less than 6% of GDP. While agreement on the future economic and trading relationship has proved difficult, there has been a greater level of convergence between the UK and the EU27 over continuing security co-operation. Former Soviet bloc states, including Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and the Baltic countries, have been particularly concerned to ensure that Brexit does not undermine the UK contribution to European security. 7 Commons Library Briefing, 2 May 2019 Table 1 UK trade with EU member states, 2017 (£ millions) Goods Services Total All trade with the UK as a Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance % GDP1 Austria 1,768 3,255 -1,487 1,320 1,462 -142 3,088 4,717 -1,629 2.7% Belgium 14,060 25,478 -11,418 4,685 2,733 1,952 18,745 28,211 -9,466 13.5% Bulgaria 334 389 -55 292 538 -246 626 927 -301 4.0% Croatia 99 77 22 101 537 -436 200 614 -414 1.9% Cyprus 268 113 155 739 1,304 -565 1,007 1,417 -410 14.5% Czech Rep 2,021 5,602 -3,581 1,076 661 415 3,097 6,263 -3,166 5.9% Denmark 2,657 4,865 -2,208 3,916 1,489 2,427 6,573 6,354 219 5.5% Estonia 133 197 -64 77 33 44 210 230 -20 2.6% Finland 1,262 2,466 -1,204 1,337 506 831 2,599 2,972 -373 3.2% France 24,248 27,455 -3,207 16,130 13,359 2,771 40,378 40,814 -436 4.3% Germany 37,135 68,722 -31,587 19,683 9,387 10,296 56,818 78,109 -21,291 5.3% Greece 887 816 71 1,079 3,114 -2,035 1,966 3,930 -1,964 3.6% Hungary 1,348 2,714 -1,366 770 770 0 2,118 3,484 -1,366 5.5% Ireland 20,309 14,488 5,821 13,725 7,300 6,425 34,034 21,788 12,246 23.5%
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