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Presentación De Powerpoint Capital Market Structuring Department August, 2021 Market Note Foreigners Are Net Sellers Once Again Sales flows were led by foreign agents in July, with the net amount reaching COP316,381 mn. Their total flows represented 37% of the total flows for the month, a 5%-higher share than in June. The most sold shares included were Capital Market Structuring Department Grupo Aval pref. (COP267,674 mn), Ecopetrol (COP170,687 mn), and Bancolombia pref. (COP110,137 mn). On the other hand, regarding Investment Solutions Management purchase flows, Bancolombia pref. (COP105,700 mn), Bancolombia ord. [email protected] (COP94,108 mn), and Grupo Aval pref. (COP92,642 mn) top the list. Pension funds maintained a net buying position, with the net amount reaching COP268,391 mn. In July, the share most bought by pension funds was Grupo Aval pref., with COP155,920 mn; followed by Ecopetrol, with a flow of COP114,362 mn, and Bancolombia pref., with COP33,188 mn; the COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months list of best-selling assets is again headed by the iColcap ETF, with a flow of volumen USD Colcap COP31,914 mn; followed by Bancolombia ord., with COP28,560 mn, and 200 1600 Cementos Argos, with a flow of COP23,905 mn. 1500 Similarly, individuals were net buyers, with an amount of COP33,562 mn. 150 1400 Ecopetrol, Bancolombia pref., and Grupo Sura were the most representative 1300 purchases, with flows of COP72,392mn, COP26,664mn and COP21,597mn, 100 1200 respectively. Finally, regarding the share in the trading sessions, 37% of Points US$mn 1100 foreigners were followed by stock brokerage firms, with 20%, and pension funds, with 19%. 50 1000 900 Colcap fell 1% in July 0 800 In July, the Colcap posted a 1% drop. The shares that presented the highest Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 valuations were Cementos Argos (4.6%), followed by Conconcreto (4.3%), Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. and Davivienda (4.2%). In contrast, both Grupo Aval shares fell 10.4%, the most devalued names. During the month, the presentation of the new tax reform proposal by the Government, the behavior of oil, and foreign sales were the main factors influencing the performance of the index. Most Traded Shares On May (USD mn) Markets in the region showed mixed behaviors in July. The Mexican market was the only one posting valuations during the month, rising 1.2%. In Ecopetrol 97 contrast, the Peruvian, Brazilian, and Chilean markets showed losses, falling 6.3%, 3.9%, and 1.8%, respectively. In July, the daily traded volume in the PF Aval 76 local market averaged COP81,999 mn (-25.3%YoY and 6.5%MoM). PF Bancolombia 61 Bancolombia In the ranking of the most traded shares, Ecopetrol remains first, with a 38 volume of COP370,397 mn, followed by Grupo Aval pref., with COP289,787 ISA 24 mn. Finally, reviewing the investment limits of pension funds, the high-risk ICOLCAP 23 portfolio has a 6.7% gap, while the conservative and moderate porfolios Grupo Sura 20 have a -0.2% gap. Cementos Argos 17 PF Davivienda 16 Corficol 10 Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. Table 1. Transactions (USD mn) Market Participants Evolution Brokerage Firms Foreigners Individuals Pension Funds Real Sector Others 100% Buyers Sellers Total Participation 7% Real Sector 24 20 4 5.0% 5% Foreigners 119 202 (83) 37.2% 80% 19% Pension Funds 118 48 70 19.3% 11% Brokerage Firms 83 91 (8) 20.1% 60% Individuals 54 45 9 11.4% Others 19 9 10 3.2% 40% 37% Collective Portfolio 8 14 (6) 2.6% ADRs - - - 0.0% 20% Funds 6 3 3 1.1% 20% Total 432 432 100.0% 0% 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Source: BVC, Bloomberg. Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia Market Winners and Losers – Mar. Table 2. Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn) Cementos Argos 4.6% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Pension Funds 70.0 171.6 217.9 520.5 Conconcreto 4.3% Foreigners (82.6) (188.2) (459.3) (742.3) Brokerage Firms (7.8) (23.5) (6.6) (85.1) Davivienda PF 4.2% Individuals 8.8 3.8 103.9 106.2 Real Sector 4.1 14.1 75.3 69.1 COLCAP -1.0% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years ETB -7.1% Pension Funds 1,582.3 2,524.8 3,845.0 4,435.0 Foreigners (1,821.0) (2,427.3) (1,974.4) 860.7 Grupo Aval -10.4% Brokerage Firms (444.2) (449.1) (434.5) (21.0) Individuals 177.8 (50.0) (892.3) (3,557.7) Grupo Aval -10.4% Real Sector 86.3 (30.1) (1,200.2) (2,595.2) -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Table 3. Most Bought and Sold Names by PF (USDmn) Table 4. Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreigners (USDmn) Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Grupo Aval PF 50.7 Grupo Aval PF 63.5 Ecopetrol 142.9 Grupo Bolívar 17.3 Grupo Bolívar 17.7 Grupo Bolívar 17.2 Ecopetrol 47.4 Ecopetrol 57.0 Grupo Aval PF 96.7 Cementos Argos 8.1 Canacol Energy 10.0 Cementos Argos 11.7 Bancolombia PF 17.1 GEB 40.2 Icolcap 54.9 Canacol Energy 4.8 Hcolsel 5.6 Canacol Energy 9.2 Banco de Bogotá 15.3 ISA 22.9 Davivienda PF 50.2 Avianca Holdings 1.3 Cementos Argos 3.6 Terpel 3.2 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Hcolsel (7.3) Hcolsel (30.2) Grupo Sura (19.3) Grupo Aval PF (53.5) Ecopetrol (81.8) Ecopetrol (187.2) Icolcap (3.9) Grupo Sura (10.6) Bancolombia (9.1) Ecopetrol (44.6) GEB (77.7) Grupo Aval PF (98.4) Grupo Bolívar (3.7) Icolcap (8.7) Promigas (6.7) Banco de Bogotá (25.8) Grupo Aval PF (56.7) Bancolombia PF (84.7) Cementos Argos (3.0) Celsia (6.4) Cementos Argos (5.6) ISA (16.0) Bancolombia PF (46.5) GEB (75.6) Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 250 50 200 0 150 (50) (31) 100 70 (100) (83) 50 USD mn (150) USD mn 0 (200) (250) (50) (300) (100) 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 18 19 20 21 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 80 50 60 84 0 40 (50) 20 9 (100) 0 USD mn USD mn (150) (20) (8) (200) (40) (250) (60) (300) (80) 18 19 20 21 18 19 20 21 17 18 19 20 21 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities Foreing Equities Others 90 2019 2020 2021 100% 75 18% 80% 60 32% 60% 45 40 34 US$ mn 33 40% 13% 30 5% 21 21 20% 15 32% 0% 0 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 - - - - - - - - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec - Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021 Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)* BCOLOMBIA 6.5 PFAVAL 39.3 CEMARGOS 5.7 ECOPETROL 26.7 CNEC 0.5 CORFICOLCF 7.2 CORFICOLCF (6.1) ICOLCAP (4.1) ECOPETROL (29.5) CEMARGOS (4.6) PFAVAL (45.7) BCOLOMBIA (5.4) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 Millions Millions Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector Movements (USDmn)* Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)* PFAVAL 3.9 ECOPETROL 6.2 ECOPETROL 3.0 GRUPOSURA 3.1 NUTRESA 1.6 PFAVAL 2.5 GRUPOSURA (0.4) PFBCOLOM (1.0) PFBCOLOM (0.9) CEMARGOS (1.1) ISA (3.8) GRUPOAVAL (1.3) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 (2) 0 2 4 6 8 Millions Millions Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Table 5. AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund Investments in equity securities National Maximun AFP Fund Type Total Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Limit Limit Low Risk 6.3% 13.9% 20.2% 15.0% 20.0% 8.7% -0.2% Protección Moderate 12.9% 32.4% 45.3% 35.0% 45.0% 22.1% -0.3% High Risk 18.7% 45.0% 63.7% 45.0% 70.0% 26.4% 6.3% Low Risk 6.4% 13.5% 19.8% 15.0% 20.0% 8.6% 0.2% Porvenir Moderate 12.4% 32.4% 44.8% 35.0% 45.0% 22.6% 0.3% High Risk 18.4% 44.3% 62.7% 45.0% 70.0% 26.6% 7.3% Low Risk 6.1% 17.1% 23.1% 15.0% 20.0% 8.9% -3.1% Skandia Moderate 13.5% 33.1% 46.6% 35.0% 45.0% 21.5% -1.6% High Risk 18.1% 48.3% 66.4% 45.0% 70.0% 27.0% 3.6% Low Risk 6.3% 13.7% 20.1% 15.0% 20.0% 8.7% -0.1% Colfondos Moderate 13.7% 32.3% 46.0% 35.0% 45.0% 21.3% -1.0% High Risk 18.2% 44.8% 63.0% 45.0% 70.0% 26.8% 7.0% Low Risk 6.3% 13.9% 20.2% 15.0% 20.0% 8.7% -0.2% Sistema Moderate 12.8% 32.4% 45.2% 35.0% 45.0% 22.2% -0.2% High Risk 18.5% 44.9% 63.3% 45.0% 70.0% 26.5% 6.7% Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021.
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