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Informe De Flujos Foreigners Showed Net Selling Position Market Note Local Market Flows January 2021 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 8 Foreigners Showed Net Selling Capital Market Structuring Department Position Investment Solutions Management [email protected] om.co In January, foreigners recorded high outflows for a net amount of COP102.4 bn. Their total flows represented 39% of total flows for the month, increasing their participation 9% compared to December. Amongst the most bought and sold shares, the same three names stand out, with net sales flows: Ecopetrol, with a COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months net outflow of COP45.9 bn, Bancolombia pref., with a net outflow of COP16.5 bn, and ISA, with a net outflow that reached COP7.3 bn. volumen USD Colcap Pension funds maintained their net buying position, represented by an adjusted 200 1800 amount of COP1.5 bn. In this month, the most purchased share by pension 1700 1600 funds was Ecopetrol, with a flow of COP89.7 bn, followed by the ETF Icolcap, 150 with COP83.7 bn, while the best-selling asset was Bancolombia pref., with a 1500 flow of COP110.3 bn. 1400 100 1300 Points On the other hand, individuals recorded the highest purchase flow with a net US$ mn 1200 amount of COP76.8 bn. The most representative purchases were seen in 1100 50 Ecopetrol (COP96.3 bn) and Bancolombia pref. (COP90.4 bn). Finally, 1000 foreigners had the highest participation in the trading rounds, with 39% of total 900 market flows, followed by pension funds and individuals, with 16% and 15%, 0 800 respectively. Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 In January, the Colcap Lost 6.2% Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. In January, the Colcap posted a performance of -6.2%. The shares that posted the main gains were Banco de Bogota (+10.3%), followed by Conconcreto (+9.3%) and Nutresa (+1.7%). It is important to note that the performance in the Colombian market was marked by the uncertainty of new lockdowns globally and by a second wave of the pandemic, as well as the announcement by Most Traded Shares (USD mn) Ecopetrol stating the non-binding purchase intention on ISA subject to an issuance of shares. Ecopetrol 165 This month, the Colombian stock market showed a worse performance than that PF Bancolombia 140 recorded by the Brazilian market, which fell 3.3%, as well as the Mexican one, ISA 62 which lost 3.8%. On the other hand, the Chilean market gained 2.7%. Over the Bancolombia 55 course of January, the average daily trading of the local market was COP128 bn ICOLCAP 42 (-1.4% YoY and -8.8% MoM), decreasing compared to recent months. Grupo Sura 40 PF Aval 32 In the ranking of the most traded names, Ecopetrol ranked first, with a volume of PF Davivienda 27 COP576 bn, followed by Bancolombia pref., with COP491 bn, and ISA, with GEB 21 COP217.7 bn. Finally, reviewing the investment limits of pension funds, the HCOLSEL 13 high-risk portfolio has a gap of 11.25%, while the conservative and moderate ones have gaps of -0.08% and 1.94%, respectively. Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. Transactions (USD mn) Market Participants Evolution Brokerage Firms Foreigners Indiv iduals Pension Funds Real Sector Others Buyers Sellers Total Participation 100% 6% Real Sector 57,179,322 59,083,155 (1,903,833) 8.3% 90% 8% 80% Foreigners 262,674,458 291,990,082 (29,315,623) 39.5% 16% 70% Pension Funds 114,491,189 114,066,192 424,997 16.3% 60% 15% Brokerage Firms 104,083,634 101,056,423 3,027,211 14.6% 50% Individuals 118,660,328 96,716,130 21,944,198 15.3% 40% 39% Others 26,839,655 24,089,423 2,750,233 3.6% 30% 20% Collective Portfolio 10,775,198 11,223,702 (448,505) 1.6% 10% ADRs - - - 0.0% 15% 0% Funds 7,844,575 4,321,699 3,522,876 0.9% 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - Total 702,548,359 702,546,805 100.0% Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: BVC, Bloomberg. Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia Market Winners and Losers. Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn) Banco de Bogotá 10.3% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Pension Funds 0.13 35.94 0.13 1,008.82 Conconcreto 9.3% Foreigners (29.07) 38.70 (29.07) (1,067.41) Brokerage Firms 3.06 13.26 3.06 (343.84) Nutresa 1.7% Individuals 21.98 (47.95) 21.98 126.37 Real Sector (1.98) (39.47) (1.98) 41.51 COLCAP -6.2% Grupo Sura -10.2% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years Pension Funds 1,807.24 2,600.98 4,460.12 4,444.12 Isa -10.3% Foreigners (1,611.08) (2,311.89) (1,524.46) 1,442.97 Brokerage Firms (446.45) (435.80) (399.93) (484.42) Bancolombia - 12.5% Individuals 20.37 (321.50) (1,195.93) (3,902.26) -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Real Sector (154.16) (182.66) (1,725.30) (2,831.76) Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Most Bought and Sold Names by Pension Funds (USDmn) Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreigners (USDmn) Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Ecopetrol 27.64 Ecopetrol 94.29 Bancolombia PF 262.71 Bancolombia PF 64.63 Cementos Argos 8.90 GEB 32.10 Davivienda PF 19.25 Icolcap 69.80 Grupo Aval PF 188.52 ISA 6.50 Terpel 4.54 Corficolombiana PF 5.31 Icolcap 16.33 Davivienda PF 37.47 Icolcap 162.47 Hcolsel 2.65 GEB 2.37 Cartón de Colombia 3.04 Nutresa 9.06 Grupo Aval PF 36.42 Ecopetrol 150.57 GEB 2.44 Mineros 1.60 Terpel 2.27 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Bancolombia PF (27.43) Bancolombia (12.25) Bancolombia (25.27) Davivienda PF (16.46) Ecopetrol (115.52) Bancolombia PF (287.63) Grupo Sura (11.58) Grupo Sura (9.49) Cementos Argos (12.35) Nutresa (7.18) Grupo Aval PF (45.73) Grupo Aval PF (219.08) Bancolombia (8.21) Cementos Argos (8.32) Promigas (10.52) Grupo Sura (6.55) Bancolombia PF (41.90) Ecopetrol (158.72) ISA (4.73) Promigas (5.51) Grupo Sura (9.00) Ecopetrol (5.83) Davivienda PF (39.47) Grupo Argos (82.72) Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 150 250 100 200 50 150 0 100 (50) (29) (100) 50 (150) USD mn USD USD mn 0 (200) (50) (250) (300) (100) 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 - - - - - - - - - 17 17 18 19 19 20 20 21 18 - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 80 60 50 40 22 0 20 0 (50) (20) (100) (40) (150) (60) USD USD mn USD USD mn (80) (200) (100) (250) (120) (140) (300) 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 - - - - - - - - - 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities Foreing Equities 90 2019 2020 2021 100% 75 13% 80% 60 27% 39 60% 45 14% 37 6% US$ US$ mn 40% 30 20% 40% 15 0% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of October 2020 Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)* HCOLSEL 4.6 PFDAVVNDA 10.6 PFAVAL 4.0 ECOPETROL 8.6 CEMARGOS 2.1 PFAVAL 4.5 PFDAVVNDA (12.2) CEMARGOS (1.7) ECOPETROL(13.1 ) GRUPOSURA (10.1) PFBCOLOM( 17.4) BCOLOMBIA( 13.4) (20) (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 Miles de Millones Miles de Millones Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector Movements (USDmn)* Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)* PFBCOLOM 14.0 BCOLOMBIA 3.5 BCOLOMBIA 7.5 ICOLCAP 1.7 GRUPOSURA 4.1 ECOPETROL 0.8 MINEROS (1.0) ISA (2.3) CORFICOLCF (1.4) PFBCOLOM (2.6) PFAVAL (2.3) PFAVAL (2.6) (5) 0 5 10 15 (4) (2) 0 2 4 Miles de Millones Miles de Millones Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund Investments in equity securities AFP Fund Type Total National Limit Maximun Limit Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Low Risk 7.23% 13.27% 20.50% 15.00% 20.00% 7.77% -0.50% Protección Moderate 15.97% 27.08% 43.05% 35.00% 45.00% 19.03% 1.95% High Risk 22.34% 36.92% 59.26% 45.00% 70.00% 22.66% 10.74% Low Risk 7.15% 12.71% 19.86% 15.00% 20.00% 7.85% 0.14% Porvenir Moderate 14.82% 28.19% 43.01% 35.00% 45.00% 20.18% 1.99% High Risk 20.63% 37.96% 58.59% 45.00% 70.00% 24.37% 11.41% Low Risk 7.60% 12.15% 19.75% 15.00% 20.00% 7.40% 0.25% Skandia Moderate 17.13% 25.47% 42.60% 35.00% 45.00% 17.87% 2.40% High Risk 22.96% 34.96% 57.92% 45.00% 70.00% 22.04% 12.08% Low Risk 7.63% 12.46% 20.09% 15.00% 20.00% 7.37% -0.09% Colfondos Moderate 16.64% 26.83% 43.47% 35.00% 45.00% 18.36% 1.53% High Risk 23.53% 34.79% 58.32% 45.00% 70.00% 21.47% 11.68% Low Risk 7.28% 12.81% 20.08% 15.00% 20.00% 7.72% -0.08% Sistema Moderate 15.60% 27.46% 43.06% 35.00% 45.00% 19.40% 1.94% High Risk 21.78% 36.97% 58.75% 45.00% 70.00% 23.22% 11.25% Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of October, 2020.
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