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Capital Market Structuring Department May, 2021

Market Note Foreigners Hold Highest Participation and Highest Sales Flows in April

During April, the highest sales flow came from foreigners, for a net amount Capital Market Structuring Department of COP275.5bn, which represented 32% of the total flows for the month, with their participation decreasing 3% compared to March. Amongst the Investment Solutions Management shares they sold the most are Ecopetrol (COP260.75bn), Bancolombia pref. [email protected] (COP147.5bn) and ISA (COP106.98bn). Regarding purchase flows, Ecopetrol (COP116bn), Bancolombia ord. (COP76.8bn) and Bancolombia pref. (COP74bn) top the list. Pension funds maintained a net buying position, represented by an adjusted amount of COP166.1bn. In April, the most purchased share by pension COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months funds was the iColcap ETF, with an amount of COP118.02bn, followed by volumen USD Colcap Ecopetrol, with a flow of COP92.46bn, and Bancolombia pref., with 200 1600 COP74.1bn. The list of best-selling assets is headed by the two main ETFs in 1500 the market: iColcap, with a flow of COP112.4bn, and HCOLSEL, with COP74.7bn. 150 1400 1300 On the other hand, individuals were net buyers, with an amount that stood at

COP65.5bn. Ecopetrol, Bancolombia pref., and Grupo Sura were the most 100 1200 Points representative purchases, with flows of COP69.6bn, COP45bn, and US$mn 1100 COP18.9bn, respectively. Finally, regarding the percentage of participation 50 1000 in the negotiation rounds, 32% of foreigners were followed by pension funds 900 (25%), and brokerage firms (19%). 0 800 In April, the Colcap Lost 5% Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 During April, the Colcap fell 5%. The stocks that presented the highest Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. losses were Avianca (-26.3%), followed by Conconcreto (-17.9%) and Exito (- 14.7%). In that month, the market’s performance was shortened by different factors, including the tax reform proposal presented by the Government and Most Traded Shares On March (USD mn) the subsequent social unrest, and the third peak of the pandemic, which caused difficulties for the health system. Markets in the region recorded mixed behaviors in April. The Chilean market Ecopetrol 106 showed a strong drop of 8.7%, while the Brazilian and Mexican markets PF Bancolombia 78 recorded gains of 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. During April, the daily trading ICOLCAP 57 volume in the local market averaged COP93.96bn (-15.3% YoY and -19.6% HCOLSEL MoM). 41 ISA 39 In the ranking of the most traded stocks, Ecopetrol remains first, with a Bancolombia 33 volume of COP382bn, followed by Bancolombia pref., with COP282.71bn, and ISA, with COP141bn. Finally, reviewing the investment limits of pension Grupo Sura 26 funds, the portfolio with the highest risk has a gap of 6.91%, while the PF Davivienda 19 conservative and moderate portfolios have gaps of -0.38% and -0.55%, Nutresa 16 respectively. PF Aval 16

Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. Table 1. Transactions (USD mn) Market Participants Evolution Brokerage Firms Foreigners Individuals 100% 5% Buyers Sellers Total Participation 6% 80% Real Sector 39 21 19 5.8% 25% Foreigners 130 206 (76) 32.3% Pension Funds 155 109 46 25.3% 60% 12% Brokerage Firms 101 105 (4) 19.9% Individuals 70 52 18 11.7% 40% Others 18 20 (2) 3.6% 32% Collective Portfolio 5 5 (1) 1.0% ADRs - - - 0.0% 20% Funds 2 3 (0) 0.5% 20%

Total 520 520 100.0% 0%

Apr

Apr Apr

Source: BVC, Bloomberg. Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia

Market Winners and Losers – Mar. Table 2. Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn)

Canacol 0.8% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Energy Pension Funds 45.9 46.2 46.3 590.2 Banco de Bogotá 0.6% Foreigners (76.2) (242.0) (271.0) (882.3) Brokerage Firms (4.1) 13.8 16.9 (117.0) Cementos Argos -0.4% Individuals 18.1 78.1 100.1 160.5 Real Sector 18.5 63.2 61.2 58.7 COLCAP -5.0% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years Éxito -14.7% Pension Funds 1,654.8 2,531.2 4,034.0 4,383.3 Foreigners (1,741.6) (2,457.5) (1,900.8) 1,096.2 Conconcreto -17.9% Brokerage Firms (450.4) (415.9) (374.6) (125.5) Individuals 124.9 (119.5) (921.7) (3,841.9) Avianca -26.3% Real Sector (8.7) (22.3) (1,365.7) (2,775.4)

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC

Table 3. Most Bought and Sold Names by PF (USDmn) Table 4. Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreigners (USDmn)

Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M GEB 31.1 Davivienda PF 38.2 Grupo Aval PF 140.4 Hcolsel 5.9 Bancolombia PF 25.2 Canacol Energy 6.1 Davivienda PF 19.6 Ecopetrol 36.8 Ecopetrol 104.9 Canacol Energy 5.5 Hcolsel 8.5 Corficolombiana PF 5.2 Grupo Aval PF 13.6 GEB 32.9 Icolcap 92.8 Mineros 2.5 Mineros 3.1 Terpel 3.9 Corficolombiana 11.1 Grupo Aval PF 20.2 Bancolombia PF 76.3 Grupo Bolívar 0.4 Canacol Energy 3.1 Mineros 3.6 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Hcolsel (24.2) Bancolombia PF (23.5) Bancolombia (31.5) GEB (70.4) GEB (68.1) Grupo Aval PF (172.1) Grupo Sura (11.5) Grupo Sura (22.7) Grupo Sura (18.8) Ecopetrol (39.4) Ecopetrol (45.0) Ecopetrol (151.4) Bancolombia (6.4) Hcolsel (16.0) Promigas (12.7) Bancolombia PF (37.3) Davivienda PF (39.6) Bancolombia PF (132.3) Celsia (6.0) Bancolombia (14.4) Cementos Argos (8.8) ISA (27.2) Nutresa (28.4) Davivienda PF (73.1)

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 150 250

100 200 50 150 0 (50) 100 46

(100) (76) 50 USD mn (150) USD mn 0 (200) (50) (250)

(300) (100)

Oct

Apr

Oct

Oct Oct

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC

Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn)

100 80 60 50 19 40 18 0 20 (50) 0 (20) (100)

(40) USD mn USD mn (150) (60)

(200) (80) (100) (250) (120)

(300) (140)

Apr

Oct

Oct Oct

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC

Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities Foreing Equities Others 90 2019 2020 2021 100% 75 16% 60 80% 60 51 30% 60% 45 14%

US$mn 32 40% 5% 30 26 20% 35% 15 0%

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

------

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -

Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021 Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)*

PFDAVVNDA 6.5 ECOPETROL 20.1 BCOLOMBIA 6.5 PFBCOLOM 14.2 CNEC 2.4 ISA 9.9 ISA (12.7) GEB (2.6) PFBCOLOM (20.3) BCOLOMBIA( 3.0) ECOPETROL (40.0) PFDAVVNDA (3.4)

(50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Millions Millions

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC

Real Sector Movements (USDmn)* Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)*

PFBCOLOM 5.4 ECOPETROL 8.8 HCOLSEL 4.1 PFBCOLOM 7.1 CORFICOLCF 2.3 GEB 2.6 PFCORFICOL( 0.5) GRUBOLIVAR (1.1) CEMARGOS( 0.5) BCOLOMBIA (1.1) BCOLOMBIA( 0.6) CNEC (2.0)

(1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Millions Millions

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC

Table 5. AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund

Investments in equity securities National Maximun AFP Fund Type Total Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Limit Limit Low Risk 6.7% 13.9% 20.5% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% -0.5% Protección Moderate 14.3% 32.2% 46.4% 35.0% 45.0% 20.7% -1.4% High Risk 19.5% 42.7% 62.2% 45.0% 70.0% 25.5% 7.8% Low Risk 6.7% 13.4% 20.0% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% 0.0% Porvenir Moderate 13.5% 31.2% 44.7% 35.0% 45.0% 21.5% 0.3% High Risk 19.6% 44.9% 64.5% 45.0% 70.0% 25.4% 5.5% Low Risk 6.5% 16.2% 22.6% 15.0% 20.0% 8.6% -2.6% Skandia Moderate 14.5% 31.5% 46.0% 35.0% 45.0% 20.5% -1.0% High Risk 18.5% 44.1% 62.6% 45.0% 70.0% 26.5% 7.5% Low Risk 6.8% 13.4% 20.2% 15.0% 20.0% 8.2% -0.2% Colfondos Moderate 15.1% 30.9% 45.9% 35.0% 45.0% 19.9% -0.9% High Risk 19.3% 41.7% 61.0% 45.0% 70.0% 25.7% 9.0% Low Risk 6.7% 13.7% 20.4% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% -0.4% Sistema Moderate 14.0% 31.5% 45.6% 35.0% 45.0% 21.0% -0.6% High Risk 19.4% 43.6% 63.1% 45.0% 70.0% 25.6% 6.9%

Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021.

Tabla 4. Límites de Inversión e Inversiones en Acciones de AFP Table 6. Main Agents Bancolombia Table 7. Main Agents Nutresa

3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Real Sector 1.45 Real Sector 3.97 Real Sector (10.00) Real Sector 0.46 Real Sector 0.79 Real Sector (11.44) Individuals 4.05 Individuals 6.55 Individuals 9.64 Individuals 0.46 Individuals (1.33) Individuals 1.06 Foreigners (8.19) Foreigners (9.15) Foreigners 3.26 Foreigners (21.45) Foreigners (28.39) Foreigners (45.22) Pension Funds (6.42) Pension Funds (14.35) Pension Funds (31.49) Pension Funds 7.54 Pension Funds 16.29 Pension Funds 26.50

Table 8. Main Agents Ecopetrol Table 9. Main Agents ICOLCAP

3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Real Sector 0.24 Real Sector (4.02) Real Sector 7.24 Real Sector 7.62 Real Sector 8.83 Real Sector 14.78 Individuals 2.23 Individuals (18.77) Individuals 10.01 Individuals 0.41 Individuals - 0.89 Individuals 0.13 Foreigners (39.41) Foreigners (45.04) Foreigners (151.44) Foreigners - 0.51 Foreigners - 0.26 Foreigners - 20.11 Pension Funds 10.09 Pension Funds 36.80 Pension Funds 104.94 Pension Funds - 5.10 Pension Funds 10.68 Pension Funds 92.80

Table 10. Main Agents ISA Table 11. Main Agents Cemargos

3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Real Sector 6.17 Real Sector 1.61 Real Sector 3.90 Real Sector 1.05 Real Sector 1.20 Real Sector 1.57 Individuals 3.74 Individuals 2.09 Individuals (7.87) Individuals 1.85 Individuals 0.95 Individuals 3.41 Foreigners (27.17) Foreigners (20.88) Foreigners (48.15) Foreigners (4.80) Foreigners (2.90) Foreigners (0.23) Pension Funds 10.39 Pension Funds 5.81 Pension Funds 30.25 Pension Funds 5.24 Pension Funds 3.00 Pension Funds (8.81)

Table 12. Main Agents Grupo Argos Table 13. Main Agents PF Bancolombia

3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Real Sector 1.40 Real Sector 0.50 Real Sector 4.65 Real Sector 16.70 Real Sector (7.98) Real Sector 29.82 Individuals 3.59 Individuals 0.29 Individuals 15.42 Individuals 34.91 Individuals 8.64 Individuals 51.80 Foreigners (0.89) Foreigners (0.30) Foreigners (61.32) Foreigners (37.25) Foreigners 25.19 Foreigners (132.30) Pension Funds 0.10 Pension Funds (1.23) Pension Funds 19.52 Pension Funds 2.98 Pension Funds (23.52) Pension Funds 76.25

Table 14. Main Agents Grupo Sura Table 15. Main Agents PF Aval

3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Real Sector 3.32 Real Sector 2.97 Real Sector 5.09 Real Sector 1.20 Real Sector 1.02 Real Sector 17.80 Individuals 8.33 Individuals 19.23 Individuals 24.06 Individuals (10.17) Individuals (17.96) Individuals 10.99 Foreigners (5.32) Foreigners (11.65) Foreigners (38.69) Foreigners (3.35) Foreigners (1.54) Foreigners (172.06) Pension Funds (11.52) Pension Funds (22.71) Pension Funds (18.81) Pension Funds 13.56 Pension Funds 20.17 Pension Funds 140.38

Source: Bancolombia, BVC Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango Chief Economist and Head of Economic, Industry and Market Research [email protected]

EconomicResearch Industry Research Equity Research Arturo Yesid González Peña Jhon Fredy Escobar Posada Jairo Julián Agudelo Restrepo Quantitative Specialist Head of Agroindustry Research Head of Equity Research [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Juan Camilo Meneses Cortes Nicolás Pineda Bernal Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar Macroeconomic Specialist Head of Commerce Research Utilities Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] +571 7463984 Juan Manuel Pacheco Perez Paolo Betancur Montoya International and Markets Analyst Agroindustry Analyst Andrea Atuesta Meza [email protected] [email protected] Financial Sector Analyst [email protected] Santiago Espitia Pinzón Javier David Villegas Macroeconomic Analyst Real Estate and Hotels Analyst Juliana Aguilar Vargas, CFA [email protected] [email protected] Cement & Infrastructure Analyst [email protected] Bryan Hurtado Campuzano Valentina Gómez Garzón International and Regional Analyst Commerce Sector Analyst Ricardo Andrés Sandoval Carrera [email protected] [email protected] Oil & Gas and Airlines Analyst [email protected] Deiby Alejandro Rojas Cano Juan Esteban Echeverri Agudelo Macroindustry Analyst Administrative Assistant Valentina Martínez Jaramillo [email protected] [email protected] Consumer & Industry Analyst [email protected] Julian Andrés Gómez Quintero José Manuel Lopera Molina Intern Intern Andrés Uribe Rendón [email protected] [email protected] Junior Analyst [email protected] Asistente de Investigación Jairo Andrés Burgos Guerra Intern Alejandro Quiceno Rendón [email protected] Research Editor [email protected] Terms of Use: This report has been prepared by Analysis Bancolombia a research and analysis department at Grupo Bancolombia. 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Rating System: The investment recommendation on the issuers under coverage by Analysis Bancolombia is governed by the rating system presented below, subject to the following criteria: The upside potential is the percentage difference between the target price of securities issued by a particular issuer and their market price. The target price is not a forecast of the price of a stock, but a fundamental independent valuation made by Analysis Bancolombia, which seeks to reflect the fair price the market should pay for the shares on a given date. Based on an analysis of the relative upside potential amongst the securities of companies under coverage and the COLCAP index, the ratings of the assets are determined as follows: •Overweight: when the upside potential of a stock exceeds by 5% or more the return potential of the COLCAP index. •Market Weight: when the upside potential of a stock does not differ by more than 5% from the return potential of the COLCAP index. •Underweight: when the upside potential of a stock is 5% or more below the return potential of the COLCAP index. •Under Review: the company’s coverage is under review and therefore there’s no rating or target price. Additionally, at the discretion of the analyst, the speculative qualification that complements the recommendation will continue to be used, taking into account the risks seen in the performance of the asset, its future development and the volatility the movement of the stock may show. The fundamental potential of the index is determined based on the methodology established by the BVC for the calculation of the COLCAP index, considering the target prices published by Analysis Bancolombia. This will be made with the Colcap basket on the dates of calculation May and November of every year. For the companies part of the index but not covered, the consensus of market analysts will be used.

Currently, Analysis Bancolombia has 19 companies under coverage, distributed as follows:

Overweight Market Weight Underweight Under Review

Number of issuers with ratings of: 10 2 5 1

Percentage of issuers with ratings of: 55% 11% 28% 6%