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Presentación De Powerpoint Capital Market Structuring Department May, 2021 Market Note Foreigners Hold Highest Participation and Highest Sales Flows in April During April, the highest sales flow came from foreigners, for a net amount Capital Market Structuring Department of COP275.5bn, which represented 32% of the total flows for the month, with their participation decreasing 3% compared to March. Amongst the Investment Solutions Management shares they sold the most are Ecopetrol (COP260.75bn), Bancolombia pref. [email protected] (COP147.5bn) and ISA (COP106.98bn). Regarding purchase flows, Ecopetrol (COP116bn), Bancolombia ord. (COP76.8bn) and Bancolombia pref. (COP74bn) top the list. Pension funds maintained a net buying position, represented by an adjusted amount of COP166.1bn. In April, the most purchased share by pension COLCAP Evolution Last 12 Months funds was the iColcap ETF, with an amount of COP118.02bn, followed by volumen USD Colcap Ecopetrol, with a flow of COP92.46bn, and Bancolombia pref., with 200 1600 COP74.1bn. The list of best-selling assets is headed by the two main ETFs in 1500 the market: iColcap, with a flow of COP112.4bn, and HCOLSEL, with COP74.7bn. 150 1400 1300 On the other hand, individuals were net buyers, with an amount that stood at COP65.5bn. Ecopetrol, Bancolombia pref., and Grupo Sura were the most 100 1200 Points representative purchases, with flows of COP69.6bn, COP45bn, and US$mn 1100 COP18.9bn, respectively. Finally, regarding the percentage of participation 50 1000 in the negotiation rounds, 32% of foreigners were followed by pension funds 900 (25%), and brokerage firms (19%). 0 800 In April, the Colcap Lost 5% Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 During April, the Colcap fell 5%. The stocks that presented the highest Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. losses were Avianca (-26.3%), followed by Conconcreto (-17.9%) and Exito (- 14.7%). In that month, the market’s performance was shortened by different factors, including the tax reform proposal presented by the Government and Most Traded Shares On March (USD mn) the subsequent social unrest, and the third peak of the pandemic, which caused difficulties for the health system. Markets in the region recorded mixed behaviors in April. The Chilean market Ecopetrol 106 showed a strong drop of 8.7%, while the Brazilian and Mexican markets PF Bancolombia 78 recorded gains of 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively. During April, the daily trading ICOLCAP 57 volume in the local market averaged COP93.96bn (-15.3% YoY and -19.6% HCOLSEL MoM). 41 ISA 39 In the ranking of the most traded stocks, Ecopetrol remains first, with a Bancolombia 33 volume of COP382bn, followed by Bancolombia pref., with COP282.71bn, and ISA, with COP141bn. Finally, reviewing the investment limits of pension Grupo Sura 26 funds, the portfolio with the highest risk has a gap of 6.91%, while the PF Davivienda 19 conservative and moderate portfolios have gaps of -0.38% and -0.55%, Nutresa 16 respectively. PF Aval 16 Source: Bancolombia, BVC, Bloomberg. Table 1. Transactions (USD mn) Market Participants Evolution Brokerage Firms Foreigners Individuals 100% 5% Buyers Sellers Total Participation 6% 80% Real Sector 39 21 19 5.8% 25% Foreigners 130 206 (76) 32.3% Pension Funds 155 109 46 25.3% 60% 12% Brokerage Firms 101 105 (4) 19.9% Individuals 70 52 18 11.7% 40% Others 18 20 (2) 3.6% 32% Collective Portfolio 5 5 (1) 1.0% ADRs - - - 0.0% 20% Funds 2 3 (0) 0.5% 20% Total 520 520 100.0% 0% 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Source: BVC, Bloomberg. Fuente: BVC, Bancolombia Market Winners and Losers – Mar. Table 2. Accumulative Net Flows (USDmn) Canacol 0.8% USD mn 1M 3M YTD 12M Energy Pension Funds 45.9 46.2 46.3 590.2 Banco de Bogotá 0.6% Foreigners (76.2) (242.0) (271.0) (882.3) Brokerage Firms (4.1) 13.8 16.9 (117.0) Cementos Argos -0.4% Individuals 18.1 78.1 100.1 160.5 Real Sector 18.5 63.2 61.2 58.7 COLCAP -5.0% USD mn 2 years 3 years 5 years 10 years Éxito -14.7% Pension Funds 1,654.8 2,531.2 4,034.0 4,383.3 Foreigners (1,741.6) (2,457.5) (1,900.8) 1,096.2 Conconcreto -17.9% Brokerage Firms (450.4) (415.9) (374.6) (125.5) Individuals 124.9 (119.5) (921.7) (3,841.9) Avianca -26.3% Real Sector (8.7) (22.3) (1,365.7) (2,775.4) -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Table 3. Most Bought and Sold Names by PF (USDmn) Table 4. Most Bought and Sold Names by Foreigners (USDmn) Top Bought Top Bought 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M GEB 31.1 Davivienda PF 38.2 Grupo Aval PF 140.4 Hcolsel 5.9 Bancolombia PF 25.2 Canacol Energy 6.1 Davivienda PF 19.6 Ecopetrol 36.8 Ecopetrol 104.9 Canacol Energy 5.5 Hcolsel 8.5 Corficolombiana PF 5.2 Grupo Aval PF 13.6 GEB 32.9 Icolcap 92.8 Mineros 2.5 Mineros 3.1 Terpel 3.9 Corficolombiana 11.1 Grupo Aval PF 20.2 Bancolombia PF 76.3 Grupo Bolívar 0.4 Canacol Energy 3.1 Mineros 3.6 Top Sold Top Sold 3M 6M 12M 3M 6M 12M Hcolsel (24.2) Bancolombia PF (23.5) Bancolombia (31.5) GEB (70.4) GEB (68.1) Grupo Aval PF (172.1) Grupo Sura (11.5) Grupo Sura (22.7) Grupo Sura (18.8) Ecopetrol (39.4) Ecopetrol (45.0) Ecopetrol (151.4) Bancolombia (6.4) Hcolsel (16.0) Promigas (12.7) Bancolombia PF (37.3) Davivienda PF (39.6) Bancolombia PF (132.3) Celsia (6.0) Bancolombia (14.4) Cementos Argos (8.8) ISA (27.2) Nutresa (28.4) Davivienda PF (73.1) Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Foreigners’ Evolution (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Evolution (USDmn) 150 250 100 200 50 150 0 (50) 100 46 (100) (76) 50 USD mn (150) USD mn 0 (200) (50) (250) (300) (100) 17 18 19 20 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector’s Evolution (USDmn) Individuals’ Evolution (USDmn) 100 80 60 50 19 40 18 0 20 (50) 0 (20) (100) (40) USD mn USD mn (150) (60) (200) (80) (100) (250) (120) (300) (140) 17 18 19 20 17 18 19 20 17 18 19 20 21 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Average Monthly Volume (USDmn) Pension Funds’ Investment Portfolio Evolution Domestic Fixed Income Foreing Fixed Income Domestic Equities Foreing Equities Others 90 2019 2020 2021 100% 75 16% 60 80% 60 51 30% 60% 45 14% US$ mn 32 40% 5% 30 26 20% 35% 15 0% 0 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 - - - - - - - - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec - Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021 Foreigners’ Movements (USDmn)* Pension Funds’ Movements (USDmn)* PFDAVVNDA 6.5 ECOPETROL 20.1 BCOLOMBIA 6.5 PFBCOLOM 14.2 CNEC 2.4 ISA 9.9 ISA (12.7) GEB (2.6) PFBCOLOM (20.3) BCOLOMBIA( 3.0) ECOPETROL (40.0) PFDAVVNDA (3.4) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Millions Millions Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Real Sector Movements (USDmn)* Individuals’ Movements (USDmn)* PFBCOLOM 5.4 ECOPETROL 8.8 HCOLSEL 4.1 PFBCOLOM 7.1 CORFICOLCF 2.3 GEB 2.6 PFCORFICOL( 0.5) GRUBOLIVAR (1.1) CEMARGOS( 0.5) BCOLOMBIA (1.1) BCOLOMBIA( 0.6) CNEC (2.0) (1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Millions Millions Source: Bancolombia, BVC Source: Bancolombia, BVC Table 5. AFP’s Equity Investment Limits per Fund Investments in equity securities National Maximun AFP Fund Type Total Local Gap Total Gap From national issuers From foreign issuers Limit Limit Low Risk 6.7% 13.9% 20.5% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% -0.5% Protección Moderate 14.3% 32.2% 46.4% 35.0% 45.0% 20.7% -1.4% High Risk 19.5% 42.7% 62.2% 45.0% 70.0% 25.5% 7.8% Low Risk 6.7% 13.4% 20.0% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% 0.0% Porvenir Moderate 13.5% 31.2% 44.7% 35.0% 45.0% 21.5% 0.3% High Risk 19.6% 44.9% 64.5% 45.0% 70.0% 25.4% 5.5% Low Risk 6.5% 16.2% 22.6% 15.0% 20.0% 8.6% -2.6% Skandia Moderate 14.5% 31.5% 46.0% 35.0% 45.0% 20.5% -1.0% High Risk 18.5% 44.1% 62.6% 45.0% 70.0% 26.5% 7.5% Low Risk 6.8% 13.4% 20.2% 15.0% 20.0% 8.2% -0.2% Colfondos Moderate 15.1% 30.9% 45.9% 35.0% 45.0% 19.9% -0.9% High Risk 19.3% 41.7% 61.0% 45.0% 70.0% 25.7% 9.0% Low Risk 6.7% 13.7% 20.4% 15.0% 20.0% 8.3% -0.4% Sistema Moderate 14.0% 31.5% 45.6% 35.0% 45.0% 21.0% -0.6% High Risk 19.4% 43.6% 63.1% 45.0% 70.0% 25.6% 6.9% Source: Bancolombia, Superintendence of Finance *Data as of march, 2021.
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