Regional and International Influence on the Yemen Crisis and the Failure of the Peace Process

Regional and International influence on the Yemen Crisis and the failure of the peace process

How has regional and international relations impacted on the Yemen Crisis?

Hend Omairan

International Relations Dept. of Global Political Studies Bachelor programme – IR103L 15 credits thesis Thesis submitted Spring 2021 Supervisor: Johan Modée

Abstract

The factors behind the crisis in Yemen are intertwined and complicated to a large extent, and the war has completed its sixth year and is still raging without any political solutions or sustainable peace being found, as the crisis is rooted from decades and many internal and external factors have branched out and intertwined to make the scene go on a path other than evident to stop the war. Therefore, it finds a dilemma in finding regional and international influence and role in resolving the crisis in Yemen. This thesis sheds light on the direct and indirect effects of conflict, the events that took place before the war in 2015, and the extent of their impact on the current crisis, by analyzing the qualitative content according to interviews with local and international parties. International experts and this study seek to systematically process tracing events after the post- colonial, the impact of political regimes, the geographical distribution between North Yemen and South Yemen, unity in 1990 and the civil war in 1994, and the impact of political factors, conflicts, the Arab Spring 2011, outcomes of the national dialogue2014, and regional and international interventions to stop war and failure of the peace process.

Keywords Yemen, conflict, Saudi Arabia, Iran, STC, political parties, impact, political system, Government, Colonialism, crisis, peace process, regional, international interference.

Word Count: 13930

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

PDRY People's Democratic Republic of Yemen YAR Yemen Arab Republic GCC Gulf Cooperation Council STC Southern Transitional Council UAE United Arab Emirates UK United Kingdom USA United states of America UN United Nation UNSC United Nation Security Council

Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...... 1 2. Literature review ...... 3 1.1 Internal civil war ...... 3 1.2 External proxy war ...... 5 1.3 The failure of Peace process...... 7 2.4 Theory ...... 9 2.4.1 Independence and Ideology ...... 9 2.4.2 Identity and religion (Social constructivism) ...... 9 3. Methodology ...... 11 3.1 Process tracing ...... 11 3.2 Qualitative content analysis (QCA) ...... 13 3.2.1 Selection of Data ...... 14 3.2.2 Reflecting my influence as a researcher ...... 16 4. Analysis ...... 17 4.1 History and background ...... 17 4.2 The impact of post- colonialism ...... 18 4.2.1 The impact of previous political system (YAR and PDRY) ...... 20 4.2.2 Impact of Unification 1990 between YAR and PDRY ...... 22 4.2.3 the impact of the civil war 1994 ...... 24 4.2.4 The impact of the Arab Spring...... 26 4.2.5 National Dialogue Outcomes 2014 ...... 27 4.2.6 The Regional and international Interference...... 28 4.3 Discussion ...... 32 5. Conclusion ...... 35 6. Bibliography ...... 36 7. Appendix ...... 40

1. Introduction International relations explain the influence between inter-states and policies, and it is important on the international arenas, whether indirectly or directly for security, diplomatic and political interests (Lamont, 2015, p. 12). International relations theorists argue that the study of war is a sub-part of international relations, and this study analysis enable the interaction between variables that are based on three levels, starting from the international level, then the regional and local level, and the end of which is the individual level (Johnson, 2017, p. 1). Since transnational issues and international conflicts are one of the focus of International Relations (IR), the wars in the Middle East took a large place in international relations, including the war in Yemen because it is a civil war and then turned into a regional and international external war. The Yemen war is the subject of this thesis. There are various explanations and understandings of the Yemen war, some believe that it is just escalation since the revolutions of the Arab Spring and others that it began since the establishment of the Yemen unity between South Yemen and North Yemen and the civil war since 1994, as well as some that differences existed after the independence of British colonialism in South Yemen and the independence of Ottoman empire from North Yemen (Subhi, 2018). In past three decades and the Yemen unification under the conflict and continuous internal wars that have led to concern in destabilizing the Arab national security and instability in the Arabian Peninsula, and this is what allowed certain countries such as Saudi Arabia to intervene militarily in Yemen to protect its borders came in 2015 when the Houthis turned against the state of Yemen with the support of Iran (BBC, 2020). There is a difference in the vision and discourses of internal and external parties about the war, how it began, and the old and new causes of the conflict. There are those who describe interventions to preserve Arab national security from Iran and there are those who say that one of the goals of the intervention is to restore Yemeni legitimacy, stop the war and find alternative solutions to the Yemen crisis. When the Houthis took over the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, in 2014, the war began with the Houthis entering Aden in March 2015, and it was difficult to define and describe it due to the many parties and factors and the multiplicity of conflict parties that participated in the war at the local level on the one side, and the international and regional on the other side (Brehoney, 2020). Some scholars (Hill 2017, Schmitz 2014, Helen 2019, Young et all. 2012) interpret the war as a civil war 1

in Yemen. However, other scholars (Juneau 2020, Pack 2019, Bachman, 2019, Salisbury 2016, Schulpen et al. 2020) view it as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia which has a Sunni majority, and Iran Shia majority in the region on the Yemen territory, due to ideological, religious and political differences. Reflecting on the continuum war in the Middle East, particularly in Yemen, and there are direct regional and international effects on the crisis for more than six years, the complications in finding solutions and supporting the parties to the conflict through many escalations in the war raise the puzzle: “what makes the war in Yemen remain unsolved despite the intervention of the regional and international actors?” Thus thesis investigate how certain individuals in Yemen understand the Yemen war. However, analyzing the continuum of war in Yemen raises an interesting research question: “How has regional and international relations impacted on the Yemen Crisis?” The thesis examines the war in Yemen and the regional external interventions by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia to support the Yemen legitimate government as well as the support that Iran provides to Houthis in Yemen and how the IGOs and UN have intervened to find out the solutions to the Yemen crisis. The study argues that the peace process failure is related to colonial impacts, and a lack of knowledge of the roots of war and finding solutions for it, as well as different identities and ideologies, and the intervention of international and regional actors that claim to resolve the national war while intending to serve their interest by exacerbating the already existing issues. To understand main factors that constitute the Yemen war by interviews elites from local actors, NGOs, and journalists and how they understand the war, the thesis will employ different perceptions stated by different informants as some support the Arab coalition while others oppose it. Hence, the following section will present different kinds of literature that understand the flare- up of the war in Yemen from different aspects, such as external proxy war, internal civil war, and failure peace process between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

2. Literature review In this section, the paper will present different views that scholars have discussed about the crisis in Yemen for six years without finding solutions despite regional and international interventions and all peace negotiations endeavors, what are the causes of the war and the opinions that researchers sought by; firstly, Yemen war as internal civil war; Secondly, Yemen war as external proxy war; Thirdly, failure of the peace process.

1.1 Internal civil war According to some theorists, the Yemen war finds its roots in many different aspects: Ideology, religion, identity, the regional and external actor's intervention (Hill 2017, Schmitz 2014, Helen 2019, Doran 2020 and Young et all. 2012). These scholars presented to view that the war in Yemen from the recent history of the conflict between south Yemen (PDRY) and North Yemen (YAR) before the unity 1990 and after the unity as a civil war and argued that the war aggravated due to conflicting parties and past unsolved problem from post-independence after the colonialism, failure of government, leadership and corruption. Young et all. (2012), uses quantitative analysis reviews reports on details from the political stage prior to the modern era, as well as the differences in the central powers of government, and this report does not explain the origins of the present conflict, but rather only clarifies the political experiences in Yemen capable of explaining the system of government, the political climate, and current events to frame power in Yemen (Young, 2012, pp. 754,759). This is what discussed and reaffirmed by Hill (2017), who uses ethnographic studies by staying for several years in Yemen to witness the changes and developments of the political stages and accordingly conducts interviews with civilians, politicians, and civil society activists. The author presented an account of the different backgrounds in the history of Yemen from the Ottoman occupation and the British colonialism and the political regimes that preceded the current government and touched upon the civil war in addition to the corrupt political system during the reign of Ali Abdullah Saleh, and this led to the lack of political and internal security instability and the leg of the civil war (Hill, 2017). Although Young (2012) and Hill (2017) focus only on history, turmoil, and political crises, as well as the relationship between current issues of the present and their connection to the past, but they lack a detailed explanation of identity and its connection to the civil war and other current

issues in Yemen. For example, this identity gap has been filled in simplified terms by Lackner (2019) who conducted a qualitative content analysis discussing the civil war and the Yemen crisis that began with the unity between the states of South Yemen and North Yemen in 1990 due to a lack of understanding of the problems of different identities. The 2011 revolution exacerbated the decades-old problems, the political transition process from the Saleh government to the Hadi government, the comprehensive national dialogue in Yemen under the auspices of the United Nations, and the political crisis after the outcomes of the national dialogue caused by the Houthis, which also increased the causes of war and political and security instability (Lackner, 2019). In contrast, Schmitz (2014) uses national discourse analysis and the investigation into the war and the background of the crisis in Yemen and its internal impact through the charter of the Gulf initiative and the national dialogue held in 2013, and the results produced by the national dialogue that dealt with various issues, including state-building, transitional justice, the southern issue and the Saada issue represented by the Houthis (Ansar Allah), and the previous problems Yemen crisis from economic and political terms. (Schmitz, 2014). To conclude that finding solutions to the conflict in Yemen is to some extent impossible due to the security, political and economic instability, and therefore the crisis will not be resolved unless there is political change and the exclusion of the corrupt political elites that control the country. In summary of the literary reviews by saying that the scholars discussed in this section that the war in Yemen is the result of problems rooted in the instability of political and economic reality, and the military and security imbalance, as well as the unity between North Yemen and the South, the civil war, the Southern Movement, and the national dialogue, whose outputs were one of the main factors that explain the factors and causes of the war in Yemen.

1.2 External proxy war Since 2011, the Arab Spring has made it a burning region with sporadic civil wars and regional and external interventions in the region that have led regional and international interventions. The closest model in the context of the war in Yemen is Libya especially the UAE’s interference in the fight against the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen and Libya, as well as in attempts to find common solutions between the conflicting parties. So (Juneau 2020, Pack 2019, Bachman, 2019, Salisbury 2016, and Schulpen et al. 2020) in these reviews the scholars argued and focused on regional and international interventions regarding the crisis in Yemen, which is a proxy war on the Yemen territory. Juneau (2020) used an article on content analysis, the researcher argued that the Emirati intervention in Yemen, especially in South Yemen at the beginning of the war in 2015, and that those reasons prompted the UAE that intervened with a request from Saudi Arabia which leads the Arab coalition, and UAE supported the representative of the southern cause, which is the Southern Transitional Council (STC) that has the same goal, which is to fight the Islah party, which represents the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, and the Emirati intervention came at the request of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen (Juneau, 2020). Similarly, Pack (2019) uses quantitative analysis of content in his research paper that discusses the situation that worsened in Libya after the Arab Spring and civil wars after 2014 in the post- Gaddafi period, in addition to the presence of armed groups that want to take center stage between the revolutionaries and the Muslim Brotherhood. And Haftar's forces supported by the UAE and some Arab countries, such as Egypt, which are fighting against the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism in the Arab region (Pack, 2019). Salisbury (2016) uses historical context and quantitative analysis and argues the roots of the war that caused the Saudi-Iranian regional intervention and its impact on the Yemen crisis, as the researcher explains it in his article on the Cold War in the Arab Region. That Iran and its direct relationship with its Houthi ally on the ground, and is what aroused Saudi Arabia’s anger for Iran’s fight in Yemen, as it is always seeking to appear as a dominant and dominant power to preserve its borders and Arab national security in the region, and this increases the escalation of the conflict, and it is also discussed that Yemen may face many obstacles in the development and the coalition especially Saudi Arabia should support Yemen financially so that it can survive socially and economically (Salisbury, 2016).

Schulpen et al. (2020) carries empirical analysis, quantitative research, and comparative analysis of the outputs of the comprehensive national dialogue that was held under the auspices of the United Nations in 2014 for the failure state, and the presentation of the draft constitution for the outputs of various issues and solutions that they continued to discuss in the national dialogue that began in 2013, in addition to the participation of regional and international countries from For the reunification of the conflicting parties and the start of the implementation of the outputs. Among the outcomes of the national dialogue is that Yemen will become the federal Yemen of six regions. The researcher's analysis touched on the Houthi coup against the draft constitution and the attack on the headquarters of the state represented by President Hadi, and the failure of the implementation mechanisms and led to a civil war, and the Houthi alliance with former President Saleh then escalated later into a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia (Schulpen , 2020). Unlike other scholars who discussed the war and the reason for its continuation for several years in various aspects in regional and international interventions, Bachman (2019) uses a descriptive and analytical essay describing the crisis in Yemen and the intervention of the Arab coalition led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that contributed to further fueling the conflict and the violent killing of many civilians in the country. The areas controlled by the Houthis, with the approval of some members of the Security Council such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which also contributed to these violations and genocide by selling weapons and empowering the coalition by giving it direct powers and issuing decisions by the Security Council since the beginning of the war, and this means that this article describes responsibility Joint between America and the United Kingdom (Bachman, 2019). In conclusion, the scholars discuss, such as Juneau 2020, Pack 2019, and Schulpen et al. 2020 that provided an in-depth analysis of the causes that led to the humanitarian catastrophe caused by the war in Yemen and takes into account the real role that the external parties and even neighboring countries have provided to Yemen in the region to solve the crisis, while each of Salisbury 2016 and Bachman 2019 a one-sided analysis that the war is mainly caused by proxy war, through a greater focus on the intervention of regional and external actors. The previous literature reviews to understand the mechanisms causing the war in Yemen if its roots are civil war for many years or proxy war interference by regional and international powers attempts to bring peace, and initiatives submitted by several countries in addition to the United Nations.

1.3 The failure of Peace process In an attempt to bring peace and find solutions to the Yemen crisis, and many initiatives presented by Arab countries in the Arab region like Kuwait and Oman as well as the international community since 2011 (Salisbury 2019, Forster 2017, and Sana'a Center 2020). The mentioned scholars before sections had argued that the peace processes have failed due to the Houthis ’unwillingness to sit at the negotiating table and share Peaceful power, in addition to the Yemeni government's failure to work seriously for peace. Forster (2017) conducts quantitative research in the content analyzing the war in Yemen and the path of the peace process that many countries have pursued and have been in several attempts since the overthrow of the Saleh government and the conflict between political parties. After the war began and the coalition intervened, the Security Council presented Resolution No. 2216 of 2014 to support the legitimacy in the government of Yemen headed by Hadi, and the Houthis requested to hand over weapons and withdraw from the cities they control, then sit down to the dialogue table, then the peace consultations in Geneva in 2015, then the State of Kuwait presented an initiative in the year 2016. The researcher concludes that all peace attempts and initiatives submitted by international and regional parties have failed because Ansar Allah and the Yemeni government do not accept any negotiations and sit at the dialogue table to stop the war and establish peace (Forster, 2017). In contrast, Salisbury (2019) carries out an article for content analysis, the researcher discussed the Stockholm Agreement initiative presented by Sweden, which was undertaken in 2018 by the UN Special Envoy for Yemen and the international community. Where the researcher analyzed the failure of the Stockholm Agreement, explaining that the agreement is incomplete and inaccurate and failed to resolve the conflict, and the researcher explained in an article that it was possible to avoid the failure of the agreement according to the opinion of the scholars, by looking at the roots of the conflict and following five basic steps and be under the direct auspices of the United Nations and the international community (Salisbury, 2019). The peace initiative initiated by Saudi Arabia was discussed by the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies (2020) and about the failure of the Riyadh agreement from different angles, and the article argues from a realistic and narrative point of view, as the agreement began at the invitation of Saudi Arabia to the Southern Transitional Council and the legitimate government in Yemen. Because there is an evolution in the political scene between the new conflict party in southern

Yemen represented by the Southern Transitional Council, which wants to impose the authority of the situation in the southern governorates, and the article also discusses the provisions of the Riyadh Agreement that stipulate the inclusion of the Southern Transitional Council within the legitimate government and occupy a place in the upcoming peace talks between The Houthis and the government. The Sana'a Center explained that there is a gap in the mechanisms for implementing the provisions of the Riyadh Agreement because of the hostility between the Southern Council and the legitimate government (Center, 2020). In sum, the Sana'a Center 2020 and Forster 2017 mentioned the failure of the peace process initiatives and agreements and did not provide alternative solutions to the crisis in Yemen, while Salisbury 2019 showed the failure of the Stockholm Agreement and at the same time discussed five-step solutions if followed, the agreement would avoid the mistakes that led to the failure of the peace initiative. However, looking at the discussions above in the literature reviews, these aforementioned scholars discussed and covered previous experiences with reminders of the war in Yemen, which is a civil war and the roots of the conflict extending from three previous decades, as well as the proxy war between external actors (Saudi Arabia and Iran), and the failure of the peace consultations, but researchers They lack an accurate and in-depth analysis of the other aspects of the war that were not discussed in these reviews, including the issue of identity and religion, the war in Yemen, which is a cause and an important part of understanding the roots of this problem and the crisis. For this reason, this thesis proposes a method that enables us to know other aspects of war and to investigate more broadly and the dilemma of war mentioned and presented above. Since the literature reviews to some extent clarified the crisis in Yemen, in the following section, this thesis presents theories that explain the war in Yemen through the influence of post- colonialism and their concepts as ideology and independence on the sequence of changes in the political systems in Yemen as well as the social constructivism through identity and religion that contributed to the outbreak of war and regional and international interventions.

2.4 Theory The international system is full of chaos from the (IR) perspective and post-colonial scholar’s opinion that colonialism and imperialism initiated by the West has strengthened the continuous hegemony through global politics over the world and this still persists through political, economic, and cultural (Mcglinchey, 2017, p. 70). Post-colonial theory is considered one of the theories of international relations that express the mechanisms of political, economic, and social systems of government after the independence of colonialism from the countries that were colonized. Post- colonialism refers to the characterization of poverty in societies and states that are not alien and associated with third world countries as primitive, aggressive, and hyper-masculine, as the post- colonial theory argues that poverty must be addressed and solutions to inequality in the world represented by global decision-makers and policies are to be found through state intervention, with absolute power, which colonizes, directly or indirectly, to exploit the least-developed countries with pretending of finding solutions to global equality (John Baylis, 2014).

2.4.1 Independence and Ideology When colonialism ends come a post-colonial phase and its concepts to understand the next phase, concept of independence has many forms according to the time and colonial eras in those colonial countries, so when those countries achieve their economic and political independence does not mean that it may end and disappear with the departure of colonialism permanently, but rather it continues through international interventions and soft power ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 116). Furthermore, to achieving justice, balance and equality among peoples is under the concept of ideology for the scholar Karl Marx by giving priority to scientific competencies to lead authority in governments ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 203).

2.4.2 Identity and religion (Social constructivism) This thesis will use to concepts from social constructivism (identity and religion), focuses on actors, their concerns and identities, and constructivists are concerned with knowledge and human consciousness, and constructivists were more interested to the issues that cared to how norms, identity, and culture shape patterns of peace and war. The social constructivism concentrates the actors, their concerns and their identities, the constructivists are concerned with knowledge and

human consciousness, and the foundational and organizational criteria of the constructivists are what form the actors in them and the identities of states and give them legitimacy in the bodies of states (John Baylis, 2014, pp. 156-166). The constructivist theory represents an interpretivist study and serious trend towards a general theory in international relations. Social constructivism also indicates the importance of social construction and identity, as identity is one of its most important concepts. Identity also represents the political identity of states with respect to the international community. Because understanding identity is about understanding relationships with the other and we can know who we are, and social identities can also be changed from a constructivist point of view (Halperin & Heath, 2017, p. 5). Constructivists take seriously individuals, opinions, actions, and discourses that explain and have an impact on the understanding of international relations. Therefore, religion and religious beliefs influence individuals, their feelings, thoughts, and customs. Social constructivism takes up a large part in the analysis of religion and the study of religious ideas, beliefs, content, and discourses. The constructive framework includes religious legitimacy, that is, religious policies and decisions, and there are different types of societies that are affected by religious components and religious discourses, which derive their Sharia from religion by laws and persuade these groups of the religious approach to gain their legitimacy and implement their projects (Fox, 2013).

3. Methodology Considering the importance of producing reliable answer; the Method section introduce the data collected to answer the RQ “How has regional and international relations impacted on the Yemen Crisis?” by using Process tracing and Qualitative content analyses. Even the theory will take a part shaping the method as post colonialism will help process trace the war in Yemen and explain the opinion of the conducted interview.

3.1 Process tracing Through the contrasts and debates of most scholars who used historical context analysis, discursive analysis, comparative analysis, and quantitative and qualitative analysis. The qualitative analysis used by Lackner (2019) to discuss the civil war in Yemen which led to a crisis and caused a great dilemma in the Arab region through the threat of Arab national security, but Lancker did not cover the problems of national identity in a large way, which will be one of the methodologies given by this research paper largely through a different perspective and the most important concept that led Yemen to war. the paper also will employ process tracing, since it is as useful and other above mentioned methods to provide detailed analysis that offers in-depth studies. The Yemen war is one of the most important crises in the Arab world and due to the literature reviews that were collected to research the thesis methodology, the literature was collected with detailed methodologies to verify the views of the war in Yemen as a civil war, proxy war, and the failure of peace processes. Process tracing, one of the mechanisms of conducted research in the field of international relations, especially in political science, it’s to determine what are the basic causes and supposed results that clarify the status of the cause of events, such as the persistence of institutions or change in reality in order to know and determine the basic causal mechanisms and link it to the outcome, and for the variable, it gives the research the ability to know the historical sequential events with the studied path (Halperin & Heath, 2017, pp. 247,248). To conduct research data materials with the use of process tracing method in the context of the study of Yemen crisis and to answer the research question will be examined to investigate through; United nation repots of civil society organization and official documents, books, and academic articles. Even though Schulpen 2020, uses empirical, comparative, and quantitative analysis, he did not capture the root cause of Yemen issues ad he only focuses on failure and the outcomes of national dialogue which according to him lead to the proxy war. However,

considering the lack of the history of Yemen to provide valid knowledge, process tracing method is chosen as it will trace the causes mechanisms that lead to the endless war in Yemen. Among the literature gathered by Bachman (2019), in order to explain the crisis in Yemen with the use of descriptive analysis of the support of the United Kingdom and the United States of America over the war in Yemen. The author did not offer in depth explanation the causes of ancient conflicts that can help us know other aspects of the war concepts such as, identity, religion and civil war. However, the suggested method for the thesis to answer the research question and to process tracing the case of war in Yemen and it is better than other methods it has also weakness and by tracing the war in Yemen it could led to the political action that changed the whole system , such as “critical juncture: a point in time 'where, for some reason, an old path is abandoned and a new path is entered upon” (Halperin & Heath, 2017, p. 248). And that could may found events, actions or wars that change completely the political system that led to lose the old track of the method to the new track. When reviewed academic articles, books, and previous research has to verify the different point of view and various dimensions to understand the crisis in Yemen and recover the causes of the problems, and all parts of the conflict that presented and move away from confirmation or selection bias. There were many opinions and aspects that clarified and discussed the Yemen crisis, whether it was an internal war or an external war, and the region’s intervention in this war that lasted for six years in a row without stop and the failure of the peace consultations, but these aspects did not bring the in-depth understanding to cover all aspects and the lack of previous reads and reviews to delve into other causes and different aspects of the war from qualitative data, such as national identity and religion, as well as unity between the two states of North Yemen and South Yemen, which was followed by security imbalances and totalitarianism in governance as well as corruption, so the research study will follow the event to cover these aspects that were not covered and not covered by other research in a detailed and clear manner of the crisis in Yemen.

3.2 Qualitative content analysis (QCA) Qualitative content analysis analyzes the whole text and is supposed to reveal the meanings, purposes, and motives contained in the text, and conclude and find the implicit or hidden meanings that interest the researcher and the issue that he wants to analyze through those texts. Researchers play a role in the ontology of qualitative content analysis where meanings are inherent in the context of the text. And for the epistemology, it is based on presenting reality through the use of interpretive methods (Halperin & Heath, 2017, pp. 346-356). The collection and analysis of qualitative data are a task that is more subjective when viewing official documents and conducting interviews and giving way too many various methods of analysis and interpretations that are usually presented and used for case studies such as process tracing (Lamont, 2015, p. 107). Just like Lackner (2019), the paper will use qualitative content analysis despite its differences, as quantitative analysis informs us about numbers and focuses on surface texts and apparent content and does not answer all questions, while qualitative content analysis clarifies between the lines and reveals the motives, meanings, transcript interview and purposes contained in the text, so the use of qualitative analysis in the paper will explain different aspects of research. To recap, process tracing the best reflecting the multiplicity of methods that have been used by scholars in the literature the research paper suggests to carry out process tracing method which also involve qualitative content analysis. “Online interviews are increasingly used as a data-collection method by social scientists. These can be a useful technique for the data collection on sensitive items, and they eliminate interviewer bias. But online interviews are a far less personal type of interview than other types; they are not an appropriate tool for exploratory studies, which require intensive interaction with interviewees in order to gain better insight into an issue” (Halperin & Heath, 2017, p. 287). The informants of experts and elites were chosen based on their practical experiences in the Yemen crisis, politicians, media and civil society activists (NGOs), as well as the geographical division of Yemen to include all opinions and differences, in addition to those who represent the Houthi, the Southern Transitional Council, and the legitimate government in Yemen. As also shows that one woman and five men as informants, which reflect the situation in Yemen and the exclusion of women in the political and peace process participation.

Date Informants Title Nationality 5/4/2021 Ahmed Al-Shami Consultant, analyst, economist, human rights activist, global/ Yemen affairs, an expert in Middle East. Co- Founder of Arabian Rights Watch Association (ARWA). 17/4/2021 Ezzat Mostafa Presenter of the political dialogue TV program "Red Line" Yemen on "Al-Ghad Al-Mashriq" channel journalist and political researcher. Founder and CEO chief of the Fanar center for policy research. 9/4/2021 Fernando UNSC Panel of Experts on Yemen (2017-2019). USA Carvajal 8/4/2021 Arafat Al- Rufaid A human rights defender and civil society activist. Director of Yemen the Human Rights Information and Rehabilitation Center, a civil society organization. 14/4/2021 Ahmed Omar Representative of the Southern Transitional Council (STC ) in South Yemen Ahmed Saleh bin the EU. Farid 8/4/2021 Yasameen Al- Yemen political activist, an expert in peace and security Yemen Nadheri policies, Executive Director of Peace Track Initiative, founding member of the Women Solidarity Network, Program Representative of Partners Global in Jordan, liaising with the UN Special Envoy to Yemen to support the implementation of the Stockholm agreement, participated in the 1.5 track diplomacy on SSR led by the OSESGY.

3.2.1 Selection of Data Selection of data through online interviews with experts, civil society organizations, and journalists, who have interest and practical experiences in the Yemen crisis, and the interviews were conducted through the Zoom program. The duration and the timing of the interviews of each meeting were between one hour and one and a half, and the date was from 4 to 17 April. The number of informants interviewed was six people. There was some difficulty in communicating 14

with some people, but there were those who helped to be able to contact the informants. During the search for informants, it was intense on diversity in political affiliations the Southern Transitional Council, Al Houthi, a journalist, civil society, and an international community, as well as geographical regions, to avoid bias, my choice was based on to search for regional and international impact on the war in Yemen. Based on the ethical considerations of the research, no personal questions were asked of the interviewees, and they were open questions and I sought permission to disclose their names, so it was overt and consent from them before conducting the interviews. “Consent is therefore often understood as an ongoing process, which is verbally negotiated. It is important that the researcher is as open and transparent as possible about their identity as a researcher and explains the objectives of their work. Consent should not be regarded as a one-off event and should be re-established over time during the course of fieldwork” (Halperin & Heath, 2017, p. 324). The themes were established in relation to the informant's understanding of the war in Yemen, for example, the theme of the “colonial impact in Yemen” specifies whether informants see colonialism as the indirect impact of the current war and division in Yemen. Thus, some of the informants appointed that there is "A need for political Unity" because of the civil war between South Yemen (PDRY) and North Yemen (YAR) and both the "Impact of previous political systems before 1990" moreover, " Impact of Unification Between YAR and PDRY 1990" however, the problems raised from United Yemen and war happened while political crisis and had "Impact of civil war 1994" furthermore, corruption under the Saleh system and led to "Impact of Arab spring 2011" hence, most of the political parties attended the national dialogue 2013 to discuss and find the solution and correct the system authority and there was the direct link of the "Impact of outcomes of the national dialogue 2014" on the current conflict and how the legitimate government asked and give permission the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia with " The Regional and international Interference" to end the war. The thesis used Nvivo program to code the interviews, and the coding table will show below.

Themes of interview How many times the How many Informants themes appear in the mentioned the themes interviews during the interview Colonialism Impact on Yemen 7 3 A need for political Unity 2 2 Impact of previous political systems 4 4 before 1990 Impact of Unification Between YAR 6 6 and PDRY 1990 Impact of civil war 1994 6 6 Impact of Arab spring 2011 6 6 Impact of outcomes of the national 3 3 dialogue 2014 The Regional and international 64 6 Interference

3.2.2 Reflecting my influence as a researcher As a human rights activist and someone who worked in civil society since 2011 in Aden, southern Yemen, thus continue working as human rights defender for peace in Yemen it gave me easy access to the people that been interviewed. As a researcher from Southern Yemen it has been an interesting journey to write my thesis about the fundamental issues impacting the war and understand the world politics according to Yemen crisis from different perspective. However, it was also a challenge avoiding bias when informant’s made statements that clash with my viewpoints. In this respect, the issue of confirmation bias has been avoided by interviewing people from different regions in the nation with different viewpoints.

4. Analysis In this section, the analytical framework of the thesis will be applied, which will analyze the interviews with experts and civil society activists through their experiences and point of views on the Yemen crisis and answer to the research question “How has regional and international relations impacted the Yemen Crisis?” To comprehend the real role that the region and the international community played in resolving the Yemen crisis. To understand the real role that the region and the international community played in resolving the Yemen crisis. The analysis is divided into three sub-sections; firstly, Historical background; secondly, Elite Interview findings; thirdly, the theoretical analysis through postcolonial and social constructivism and their perceptions of the results from the interviews will be shown in the analysis section.

4.1 History and background At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the conflict was between the British and the Ottomans for sovereignty over North Yemen and South Yemen, and by 1911 the Ottomans handed over the authority of North Yemen to the Zaydis, and in 1962 the revolution against the imamate began and the Yemeni Arab Republic was established in 1968, while in the south and after a great struggle against British colonialism, Independence was declared and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen was established in 1967, and it was a country that carried radical Marxist ideology and had a strong relationship with the Soviet Union (Brehony, 2011). The independent states YAR and PDRY were in constant conflict and internal wars due to the political and ideological difference, then the state of South Yemen sought unity with North Yemen and declared unity in 1990 (Schwedler, 2002 ). After the establishment of the unity which was not based on principles of unity between two states, in 1993 the President of South Yemen, who was then Vice President of the Unity State, decided to disengage and return to the previous two countries, but that decision ended in a civil war in Yemen 1994, in which many civilians were killed in southern Yemen with a fatwa. Religious and the use of religious speeches issued by the Muslim Brotherhood, which was established in northern Yemen, and the violations were monitored by Amnesty International, the United Nations High Commissioner, as well as the International Committee of the Red Prayers (Carapico, 1994). However, the government of Yemen that recognized as a failed state and according to Bates defines the failure of the state, which begins with the collapse of the central

government due to the militarization of the society in addition to the unfair exploitation of resources to the civilians and take it for personal benefit without any accountability for the government (Bates, 2008). And because of the corruption of the united states, southern people started the peaceful movement (Hirak) against the president Saleh government in 2007 for the marginalization of the south, then the revolution of the Arab spring in 2011 (Day, 2012).

4.2 The impact of post- colonialism During the interviews with experts and civil society Informants for the thesis, opinions differed about colonialism and its impact on the current conflict in Yemen and the fact that the concept of independence comes after colonialism and comes in a variety of different forms according to the various colonial practices, as the colonialized countries achieved their political independence, but this does not mean that this concept does not conclude that colonialism has ended and disappeared with a departure from the colonial state and is lost in its influence for many decades ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 116). Moreover, the war in Yemen after colonialism has been reconsidered to some extent. Some informants (Mostafa), argue that British colonialism did not have a direct effect, it was through the UN special envoy as he is British and that explains how much of understanding of the south Yemen area and among the five permanent members of the security council. according to Mostafa; “through British influence on the Yemen file in the UN Security Council; And on its participation as one of the few most influential countries among the 18 countries sponsoring the political process, and for the quartet countries that had until recently held joint meetings of their foreign ministers related to their consultations on the political settlement in Yemen (Saudi Arabia; UAE; the United States; the United Kingdom).” Findings: In relation to post-colonialism, it’s obvious that colonialism did not end as western nations (UK) are indirectly influencing Yemen through UNSC and the UN special envoy not to end the war in Yemen rather to gain colonial power. However, an indirect effect from the social aspects of the two parties, for example, the British colonialism that sat in the south for 129 years (Sheth, 1980). And produced a different society from the north, since the Ottoman colonizer in northern Yemen was different. The etiology of the current conflict has no direct relationship. Moreover, In the north, there is the presence of the Houthis, and there is no restoration of the Ottoman Empire and Turkish rule, and a return to memory by North Yemen for that period. As for the influence in the north, it is only cultural by colonialism in North Yemen (Burrowes, 2021). 18

Hence, the other informants (Al- Shami, Al- Rufaid) argued that the colonization has a big role such as geographical area which is very important for the region. As the agreement to demarcate the borders of Sykes–Picot that divided Yemen into states by the British and its interference in the Yemen file in the Security Council and the Ottoman rule policy continued through the culture of Ottoman control that the tribes of North Yemen which took for many years after the end of the Mutawakkil Hashemite Kingdom, which was an extension of Ottoman rule. “the demarcation between the north and south the Ottomans and the British, demarcating the borders of Yemen. The Sykes-Picot Agreement and the British focused on the north and believed that they would have control over the northern regions along with their colonization of the south. After the borders were demarcated by the Sykes–Picot Agreement by British, the differences over the border areas between the north and the south increased, and that they did not exist before the agreement.” Also, there is a British influence in southern Yemen, as they play an important role, especially through the United Nations envoy, who is originally British. As stated by Al- Rufaid “There was no direct colonization since the Ottoman Empire left 1912 from North Yemen and there remained the Ottoman policy of ruling through the political, social and cultural system of the Hashemite Mutawakkil Kingdom, which affected most of the tribes and clans of the north and decreased with time in the northern central regions. There was a better political and economic in the post-colonial period than now, the strategic region of Yemen is the focus of attention of many regional powers.” Findings: There has been no direct impact by the Ottoman Empire in the north as its been by the British colonialism as the south of Yemen. It has shown that colonialism continues in a new form as former colonializes indirectly influence Third World nations (Yemen) through their peace process consultation’s to increase the interest of core nations and local elites in Yemen by ignoring six years of war and the well-being of civilians (Doran, 2020).

4.2.1 The impact of previous political system (YAR and PDRY) The previous political regimes in South Yemen (PDRY) and North Yemen (YAR) carry different ideologies under the previous colonial regimes and their independence from them, and here the concept of ideology, according to Karl Marx, works on balance and justice equally among peoples, as well as giving priority to competencies for the government leadership ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 203). Therefore, the liberation movements were part of the previous political systems because of the existence of social justice among societies after the liberation, and as Al-Shami mentioned that despite the different movements, they supported each other in the liberation processes and the transfer of societies from the low level with the exit of colonies to educated and educated societies that depend on their resources in reforming their countries, Although there are differences between the south and the north, both countries were seeking for Yemen unity to reduce poverty and work for the development of Greater Yemen. As stated by Al-Shami “There was for the Free Officers Movement who were against the imamate rule in the north, supported by the southerners, and after the liberation the support of the Southern Free Officers in the British colonialism, there was a real will to get out of colonialism and there was cooperation between the Free Officers against the imamate regime in the north and south against the colonial regime. Because of the nature of the rule, there was dissonance between North Yemen and South Yemen. Everyone was seeking unity to get rid of this disharmony that happened and to obtain salvation from this crisis, and the popular will is seeking unity, while the political will was a compulsion and the difficult economic conditions were what precipitated the decision of unity.” Findings: That the liberation movements in North Yemen and South Yemen helped some of them in the previous political regimes, despite the ideological differences, but they were able to overcome this dilemma to achieve unity. According to Bin Farid “The regime and the ideological orientation are different in general in the north and the south, but the behavior in the regime was similar and the number of coups in the north and the south was almost the same, and the external influences in the north were the same as the external influences in the south, and the political instability of both countries. The administration in the political system is totalitarian and exclusionary in the north and south.” Findings: Despite the difference in the orientation and ideological system between South Yemen and North Yemen on the public sphere and political instability, there is a similarity in the behavior of the political system in terms of exclusivity and inclusiveness.

Likewise, Carvajal also agrees with Bin Farid that the parties and the political environment created a totalitarian regime in southern Yemen with a one-party voice, and the party committee of the Socialist Party in southern Yemen, which was running a totalitarian and exclusionary system, just as northern Yemen and the regime was a capitalist capital and the political elite was from the army, political parties, and tribe “when talking about the previous political system in the south and north, the political parties, and the political environment, this political system also created an economic system, in the south one-party system, which is the Socialist Party, and the elite was in the Socialist Party Committee only, and everything outside this committee is just Normal entity. In North Yemen, political parties are represented by the elite in the army or the political party. Two entities in the South or North always competing with each other.” Findings: What I am referring to, the previous political regimes before unity come in one vote, and the socialist party represents the great powers, as well as the totalitarian exclusionary system in the south, while in the north resides the tribe, the political elites, and the army. In regard to Al-Nadheri also discussed in her speech about the influence of previous political regimes in the south due to the power of one party and the lack of transitional justice, as it was in the ruling system in North Yemen that was led by Saleh before unity, which is represented corruption in the state. “As for the south, there is a lot of impacts that happened concerning the previous regimes before unity, because the unity state did not address the old root problems of the lack of transitional justice or sustainable development. The corruption existing in the state of Yemen is old from the era of Ali Abdullah Saleh when he ruled the north before unity.” Findings: The previous ruling regimes and the different ideologies in both the state of the south and the state of the north before the unification was repressive, unfair, central, and also corrupt, as the system of government in the south was represented by the socialist party, which had a methodology that had no voice above that of the totalitarian party, and the system of government in the north during the reign of Saleh also before unity, which is represented in the rule of the tribe and the corrupt political elites that continued to unity in Yemen (Day, 2012, pp. 58-63). The consensus of the interviewees is that the previous ruling regimes and the various ideologies in both the state of the south and the state of the north are the ruling regime in the north during the reign of Saleh also before the unity, represented by the rule of the tribe, political corruption, and party elites that continued themselves who moved with Saleh in power to the state of unity in Yemen, where the regime in the south was represented before the unification,

oppressive, unjust, centrist and corrupt by the Socialist Party, which had a methodology that did not have a voice above that of the totalitarian party.

4.2.2 Impact of Unification 1990 between YAR and PDRY One of the most important concepts of social constructivism is identity formed by actions and interests, as this implies that the large state controls the small state over economic, political, and military affairs, and this is what prompts the abolition of the other identity (Mcglinchey, 2017, p. 37). The concept of identity explains that the effect of unity extended to the current conflict from the informant's point of view due to the circumvention of the central government in Sanaa in the north of Yemen, which was the most populated in the south, and the failure to establish unity on correct foundations and documents that protect unity from intrusions and control over the multiple and different identities. The unity between South Yemen and North Yemen reinforced the divisions, and building unity came from personal decisions of the southern and northern leaderships. According to Al-Shami “The current conflict is the accumulation after unity and before unity due to the crisis, internal wars in the south and internal wars in the north, the southerners being circumvented by Ali Abdullah Saleh, parties loyal to Ali Abdullah such as Islah (the Muslim brotherhood) and the Conference, and the circumvention of unity was a principle. Before the unity state, crimes that occurred by the previous government of the unit state.” Findings: Unity was one of the cumulative causes in the current conflict, as the Saleh regime and the Islah Party (the Muslim Brotherhood) circumvented unity, especially the southerners after the establishment of the unified state of Yemen. Bin Farid discuss the impact of Unity 1990 “The main reason is the failure of the unit, if the unit was established on sound foundations, was stable, solid, and was a political project that sprang up on documents that protect itself, the state would generally protect itself from any coups, as the Houthis have done at present, an example of that unity in Germany that it did follow firm rules documents and constitution, so the unity and steadfast state continued.” Findings: Unity in Yemen failed for reasons that the establishment of unity was not on solid and correct foundations, for the unity was not stable, and unity was not based on documents, decisions, laws, and a constitution that protects the continuation of unification.

Same narrative has been expressed by Mostafa “The establishment of an integrative unity between the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen in 1990; Based on the improvised personal decisions of the leadership of the two countries at the time without previous constitutional foundations from the two peoples.” To clarify that the decisions taken by the leadership in South Yemen (PDRY) and North Yemen (YAR) to establish a unified state in 1990 were made personally and were not legally or constitutionally formed for the two peoples. As stated by Al- Rufaid that laments about the current conflict in Yemen and the impact of the unity between the state of South Yemen and North Yemen from his personal experience in which he lived during the beginning of the unification “As an activist from the North, the Unity actuality from my experience and the time I lived during the period of starting of Unity is that reinforce division between the two countries, not true unity for many reasons, It showed class and social differences and the Northern elites to abuse and harassment Southern women, looting the homes of the southerners, and dismissed the employees from their jobs.” Findings: The unity increased in the splitting of social cohesion. It also showed social divides between the North and the South after the establishment of the unity, the lack of respect for southern women, and the dismissal of employees in the south by the political elite in the north. Furthermore, Al-Nadheri stated that the impact of the Unification between PDRY and YAR “there is a great influence through the memory, on the lives of the people since the Unity time, especially southern Yemen people and they did not feel the existence of unity, they felt that were deceived by the Saleh regime and disappointed the hopes of the southerners within unification state.” Findings: The new state system at that time could not benefit from the system of the people's democratic state of Yemen, which was distinguished by being a state of order and law, and the model took the form of the state of the south after the unity in Yemen to reform institutions in north Yemen (Day, 2012, pp. 111-113). Furthermore, through the different identities in North Yemen and South Yemen, unity in Yemen was established in 1990, informants explained that the current conflict is related to the current crisis due to the cumulative problems between the north and south through the takeover of the northern leadership and political parties in northern Yemen such as the Congress and Islah parties (the Muslim Brotherhood) on the one and central political decision in the capital of Yemen, Sanaa, in addition to the failure of the unit due to the weakness of the unity and was not based on documents and laws, and it strengthened the divisions instead

of being a true unity like what happened in the unity that was established between East Germany and West Germany.

4.2.3 the impact of the civil war 1994 The civil war between North Yemen and South Yemen in 1994 caused a rift in unity, hence the Yemen identity and the concept of identity in this war explained that the abolition of identity by the large state of the small state (Mcglinchey, 2017, p. 37). However, the informant's perspective that there is an effect of the civil war of the current conflict and it's through the exclusion and marginalization of the southern leaderships after the unification in Yemen. The southern leaders discovered that the unit’s decision was wrong, and this is what led to the war decision. According to Bin Farid about the civil war in 1994 “These are the results of not setting the conditions necessary for continuation, and I personally when I asked the former president of the southern state, Ali Salem Al-Bayidh, when did you feel that you made a mistake in the decision to unity with North Yemen, he said after the first year, I felt that I was wrong and that the Yemeni unity was the result of a wrong decision. Note that the southern state was a totalitarian state, but it had steadfast laws and regulations, and we considered that after the unity, the agreed terms were not applied. An example of this was the merging of the military institutions, but this did not happen by the northern regime. After the '94 war, Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime could have benefited from the exclusion of the Socialist Party and its mistakes, and the control of the political system in a better way that preserves the rights of the people and the state, but Saleh’s regime continued to suppress and marginalize the southern cadres and control the south. The southern people rejected this injustice and marginalization, and this peaceful southern movement produced it in 2007.” Findings: The decision to unite South Yemen and North Yemen is wrong from the point of view of the southern president, only one year after the signing of the unity agreement in 1990, and that when the terms of the agreement were not met, the continued marginalization and exclusion of southern leaders and parties after the 1994 war, the southerners did not accept injustice and the seizure of the south from the Sanaa government represented by Saleh, and a revolution began with a peaceful movement (Hirak Movement) in 2007. Same narrative has been expressed by Al- Rufaid “The war strengthened the view of the people of the victorious North in the 1994 war, that the Northern is power and that there is a culture of looting and seizure from the victor who writes the history from civil war 1994 and falsified many

facts and showed the south that was living in a worst economic situation before the Unity and which is not correct, In South Yemen, there were a state and state institutions. in North Yemen, there was a state and institutions, but they were not implemented or taken seriously since the tribe’s culture is the one that issues decisions.” Findings: The civil war in Yemen between North Yemen and South Yemen in 1994 changed the track of unity in Yemen, where the north triumphed and wrote a history different from the truth from the point of view of the victors in the war, that South Yemen was lived under poverty, and a bad economic situation before unification, moreover, this is completely untrue, South Yemen was a state of institutions and law, and this is unlike the state of North Yemen where there was a state of institutions but the tribe that makes the decisions instead of the state. Likewise, Al-Nadheri discussed that the 1994 war has an impact on the current crisis in Yemen, as the Saleh regime was directly targeting South Yemen “there is an effect because, after the war, the southerners were targeted by the Saleh regime, and from there the calls of the southerners began to disengage and restore the state, knowing that I am from north of Yemen, but I believe in the justice of the southern cause.” Findings: The civil war affected the current conflict because the Saleh government was targeted in southern Yemen in 1994 and this led to a revolution in southern Yemen calling for the disengagement of the unity agreement and that the southern issue is a justice cause. Thus, the civil war in Yemen in 1994 between the north and the south contributed to a gap in the unity and identity of Yemen, and the southern leaders admitted that the unification decision was a mistake decision and proceeded to reconsider and disengage, but Saleh refused, and the result was the war. The Saleh regime and the centrality of Sanaa started the abolition of the southern identity and the People's Democratic State of Yemen (South Yemen) after the victory in that war and wrote a false history that nullifies the right of the southerners, in addition to the fact that the Sana'a regime did not benefit from the state of southern institutions and preferred the tribal system, acquisition and whispering instead of achieving justice for all of the two nations (Schmitz, 1995, pp. 33-36). The informants argued from their personal experience about the civil war between the north and the south in 1994 that it was unjust and unfair, and the former southern president al-Bayidh said that unity was a wrong decision, and Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Islah Party (the Muslim Brotherhood) worked to exclude and marginalize the southern leaderships after North Yemen's victory in the war. Southerners rejected the unity that was imposed by force and the start of the

peaceful Southern Movement in 2007 against Saleh's oppressive regime, calling for disengagement and a return to two states, and that the southern cause is just against injustice, oppression, marginalization, and appropriation.

4.2.4 The impact of the Arab Spring The concept of ideology according to Marx is the mechanism that works on societal justice and equilibrium by producing and filtering social relations by giving leadership to the state to produce thinkers and people with competencies in leadership positions and not to the ruling classes ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 203). Therefore, it explains the Arab Spring in Yemen and how the informants (Mostafa, Al- Shami, Al- Rufaid), argued that the ideologies of opposing parties are different and each party wants to role which led to an unstable state and the revolution started to change the political system as there was the impact of the Arab Spring on the current conflict. According to Mostafa; “The popular uprising in 2011, in which citizens went out to demand political and economic reforms and an end to the authority of political rule at the time, in which political and financial corruption was led to the exploitation of organized religious-political groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthi group of that uprising. Through their organizational forces, they were able, in exchange for the absence of organizational frameworks for the mass movement, to reap the political fruits of the popular uprising.” In line with Mustafa, Al-Shami reemphasizes that “There is a direct impact, and Arab Spring has a direct impact on the current conflict, and there was the Gulf initiative agreement to preserve the entity of the state and the ruling entity, as well as circumventing the youth revolution by leaders who were at the forefront of the political scene such as the (Islah) party (the Muslim Brotherhood).” Findings: Al- Shami emphasizes the present of different ideologies in Gulf agreement as each group comes with their own ideologies which clashes and intensifies the war and disagreement in Yemen as everyone want to have authority without the willingness to understand one another. Same narrative has been expressed by Al- Rufaid arguing that "Part of the current conflict created alignments between the parties to the war, the youth movement for change that emerged in the Arab spring in order to improve the situation in Yemen and change the previous regime. This revolution enabled many parties and political components to lead the revolution such as the Muslim Brotherhood (Islah), and the militia of the Houthi group to reach authority.” This entails

that due to the ideological differences there has been enabled youth movement seeking to change the political system in order to make the system beneficial for citizens. To sum up, the theme of the impact of the Arab spring reiterated by informants approves that the revolution was needed to reconstruct and establish equality within the community, but different elite parties’ ideologies has influenced and manipulated the youth that were seeking change which contributed to the division of the youth movement.

4.2.5 National Dialogue Outcomes 2014 The impact of the outcomes of the national dialogue on the current war and from the concept of ideology, which is represented by balance and societal justice. Likewise, ideology may collude with issues by creating a social meaning ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 203). The outcomes from the national dialogue after the Arab Spring was in 2014 and some informants (Mostafa and Al- Rufaid) argued that the outcomes were perfect experience after the revolution that included most of the parties, and also the draft of the constitution. However, (Al- Shami) discusses that the outcomes from the national dialogue were not applicable to implement anymore after six years of war. According to Mostafa: “Despite the idealism of part of the outcomes of the National Dialogue, the most prominent problem in it is that it was not comprehensive, contrary to its name (the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference), and the party representation in it dominated regional representation because the Yemen crises to be resolved were crises that represent geographic regions in the first place. While the decision within the political and religious parties and components was a monopoly on the geographical side accused of domination and demanding justice.” Findings: The outcome of the national dialogue represented the political and religious parties, and not geographical representation in Yemen, as the crisis in Yemen started from several regions, noting that part of the outcomes of the national dialogue is ideal. Similarly, Al- Rufaid argued that the national dialogue outcomes were different experiment for Yemen “The outcomes of the national dialogue were a unique experience. First, an armed and tribal society left everything and all components of the conflict participated in the dialogue and in which there was much detail, for example, the draft constitution for the outcomes of the national dialogue was good and fulfilled the aspiration of society and the citizen. It was also a quantum leap in drafting the constitution and discussed many experiences in the region.” Findings: Society in Yemen is armed tribes, and the parties to the conflict and political components are also part of

the crisis in Yemen, but the experience of the national dialogue was unique and distinctive, as all these components were gathered around one table and worked on discussing, drafting and setting up a constitution to solve and achieve justice for the people in Yemen. In regard, Al-Shami argues that the outcomes of the National Dialogue do not touch reality anymore “In general, the outcomes of the National Dialogue are mostly unrealistic for what is today, and it should have been reconsidered in the past and now more, and at the current level the war for a period of 6 years and the outcomes of the war must be reconsidered in the outputs to match the current outputs of Yemen from all sides.” Findings: The outcomes of the national dialogue after six years of the crisis in Yemen. Hence, it must be reconsidered and should be applicable to represent the real current situation in Yemen. Moreover, the national dialogue outcomes must be worked on to accommodate all parties to the conflict on the ground. The informants discuss that the outcomes of the National Dialogue were a distinctive, unique, and also ideal experience, as it was represented by political and religious parties, and most of the spectrums of society, including armed tribes and conflict parties, were brought together for dialogue, and the constitution was drafted to form the state and achieve justice and equality, but these outcomes were not realistic, and it's not applicable anymore and must be reformulated as the crisis in Yemen six years ago does not match the current situation in Yemen.

4.2.6 The Regional and international Interference The regional and international intervention in the crisis in Yemen has goals and ideology, whether it is to preserve national, regional, or economic security. The concept of ideology, according to Karl Marx, was established to create a mechanism that works on balance and justice in society, as well as giving opportunities to elites and leaders that rise to raise the awareness of society that is not subordinate to other countries or under the sovereignty of countries with great powers. "In ideology, the subjects also represent to themselves ‘their relation to those conditions of existence which is represented to them there’(Althusser 1984:37).That is,subjects collude with ideology by allowing it to provide social meaning" ( Ashcroft, 2007, p. 203). According to Al- Shami about the regional and international interference “It is a political conflict and a struggle for a national identity. Religion has been used for some time in Yemen, especially by the Islah party (the Muslim Brotherhood). As I am from the ruling family that existed before the year 1962 from the house of Hamid al-Din and believe that Zaydism sectarianism is not

a missionary. The regional interference like Saudi Arabia's direct while The UAE does have economic projects, and Oman its role extent largely because it has borders with Yemen, and it shares with Iran the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has found a fertile environment in Yemen and the Iranian activity in Yemen since the nineties. The Qatar crisis did not have a direct effect but it used the media, especially Al-Jazeera, to weaken the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The international interference was the USA attitude towards Saudi Arabia and Iran on the Yemen conflict that the nuclear agreements in the region, about the peace process Martin Griffiths, being British and the UK carrying the entire file of Yemen in the Security Council, and the failure of the peace process that there is no trust between the conflicting parties in Yemen, the Hadi government and the lack of seriousness in bringing peace and accepting the Houthi or Ansar Allah in Yemen as partners in the authority of the state.” Findings: The conflict is political and also for the sake of national identity, and religion was used as a political tool by some religious political parties such as Islah (the Muslim Brotherhood), the use of religion to fuel the current conflict by the conflicting parties and others in the governorates. the Shami from the Hamid al-Din family that led North Yemen during the existence of the Mutawakkil Hashemite Kingdom, and the family is from the Zaidi sect. Moreover, the direct and indirect regional and international intervention through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar, and Iran, while the United States comes through the Iranian nuclear file and the Biden administration is seeking to find a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Yemen, because of Trump, and its accusation against Iran, the new US administration headed by Biden seeks to calm the situation and reach a comprehensive political and diplomatic solution in Yemen and has directly become one of the arenas for the war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The failure of the peace process due to the lack of acceptance of the other and the lack of trust and seriousness between the parties to the conflict, as well as the failure to accept the Houthis as partners in the current authority led by Hadi. According to Bin Farid “From the geopolitics, the conflict has a great regional dimension, but coalition led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia did not have an effective role, and the failure to solve the conflict in the region, the UAE has dealt more effectively than Saudi Arabia, even though it has no experience in Yemen. From its interests with Yemen, and to curtail its role in some southern regions in Yemen, such as Socotra and some islands, because if the UAE did not exist, Turkey would exist. Therefore, Saudi Arabia decided that it is in its interest to have the Emirates

instead of an enemy such as Turkey and Qatar, while Oman has an influential role in supporting the Houthis and its direct relationship with Iran, as well as playing the mediating role between the internal conflict parties in Yemen, as well as the region between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and also the international role between Iran and America. The UN Envoy a routine, boring, traditional cycle that reflects the typicality of the United Nations and its way of dealing with the solution of international issues that it has failed to solve, and the UNSC resolutions on the Yemen conflict completely different from the rest of the resolutions that were issued in the Syrian and Libyan crises, being more clear in which there is an international consensus, their impact on the ground is weak. The peace process is complicated, and the existence of a solution becomes very difficult.” Findings: There are several causes and influences for the conflict between the North and the South, which is a conflict of existence, entity, and identity between two countries, in addition to it, is a struggle between regional powers, due to the Houthi’s association with Iran using an influential factor, which is religion and the common religious belief, while the south’s association with Saudi Arabia and the UAE It is also a regional political struggle to protect political and economic reconciliation in the Arab region and that is to help the legitimate authority, but it did not achieve the goals of what came to solve the crisis in Yemen. The corruption in the legitimacy of Yemen is one of the main factors affecting and impeding the Decisive Storm presented by Saudi Arabia The UAE’s very sharp position with the Muslim Brotherhood’s forces in Yemen represented by the Islah party not to deal with them and the fact that the current government in Yemen is based on strong interference from the Islah party, and this is what made the UAE withdraw in its role in the coalition. However, the role of the current envoy Griffith does not differ from the rest of the previous missions to Yemen, but rather this serves the interests of the United Nations. Biden holds a different vision regarding Iran and carries the same vision as Obama in trying to resolve the dispute with Iran, and the first reaction to Yemen, which is pressure on Iran to solve the Yemeni crisis. The peace process is more complicated, and the existence of a solution becomes very difficult, and therefore the legitimate difference in Yemen is between the parties to the conflict. In regard, Al-Nadheri it is a political struggle on all sides, and religion is used to gain political power by the Houthis. It is used as an argument or reaching a judgment “National Army with weapons, while the UAE’s intervention is for the sake of the seaports that pose a threat to the UAE economy. Kuwait Its role is positive by hosting peace consultations in 2016, in addition to

humanitarian work in Yemen. Qatar its interference was with the coalition, and when it disagreed with the coalition. Qatar used the counter-media in particular, Al-Jazeera. The envoy sympathized with the Houthis. and UNSC resolutions are not effective, the only 2216 resolution that has meaning in Yemen's interest, and the failure of the peace process that there are no real and permanent solutions to the Yemeni crisis found by the international and regional community, thus all solutions are temporary by putting pressure on the conflicting parties.” Findings: The failure of the Saudi-led coalition, Yemen is a battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the weakness of Security Council resolutions and the failure of the UN Special Envoy for Yemen in the peace consultations. The regional intervention in the Yemen crisis by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia did not achieve the goals for which it was presented to end the war in Yemen. Rather, the matter increased greatly, as for the UAE, it came for the sake of its economic interests, the most important of which are the seaports. The Houthi movement is based on religious belief and since the beginning of the coup and the Houthi war, also the direct role that Iran leads in supporting the Houthis in the Middle East since the war is a proxy between Iran and Saudi Arabia. So the political alliances are the ones controlling the political scene, and otherwise, it has logistical support with the Houthis in another form, in addition to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar used the counter-media in particular, Al-Jazeera, so the political alliances are the ones controlling the political scene, and it has logistical support with the Houthis in another form, in addition to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey did not intervene militarily in Yemen, so its dispute with Saudi Arabia is only due to Turkey's embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood, which opposes Saudi Arabia's policies. The UNSC members and its resolutions like 2216 it's useful but it's not effective positions to end the war in Yemen, and the Security Council means the permanent interests of the states in the Security Council, political and economic interests. And the USA attitude towards Saudi Arabia and Iran, the new Biden administration came to withdraw Trump's decisions and it is said that he canceled the sanctions decision, without any pressure on the Houthis to pursue peace efforts, and this is what gave the Houthis strength, as well as pressure on Saudi Arabia and resolving the nuclear file with Iran.

4.3 Discussion The world and the international system are full of chaos from the perspective of international relations, and the theory of post-colonialism and its concepts is one of the theory of international relations that most often expresses the third world countries, their policies, and systems after independence from colonialism, and that decision-makers and policymakers must address inequality. From the data and information gathered including the opinions expressed by the contributors to these, it is evident that the Post-Colonial Theory and Social-Constructivism are both relevant and can explain much of the dynamics and the decision making in the management and its impact on the Yemen Crisis.

Direct Indirect

According to Seth, points out that post-colonialism is not an ended era and is from the past, it finds the effects of colonialism continuing and affecting the colonial countries “The ‘post’ does not mark the period after the colonial era, but rather the effects of this era in shaping the world that is ours” (Seth, 2011, p. 174). As far as the Post-Colonial Theory, the experience of both South Yemen and North Yemen differ significantly. In South Yemen, despite the independent Southern state breaking all ties with the former colonizer and establishing a Socialist state, it is the case that much of the administrative infrastructure remained and retained by the newly established state which allowed for a relatively advanced and well-developed state instructions and governance. The experience of North Yemen differed markedly in that the Ottoman influence ended chaotically leaving little state infrastructure which allowed for a centralized and autocratic Imamate rule and the establishment of the Hashemite Mutawakkil Kingdom. This lead to difficulties in the establishment of state institutions and democratic governance. In 1990, the unification of South and North Yemen marked a significant turning point and began an era of instability and political uncertainty which arguably began the gradual collapse of the Yemeni state leading to the complete collapse in 2014 with the Houthi take over and the crisis of today. With regards to the Social-Constructivism theory, the impact of this has been equally relevant and significant and any move towards ending the Crisis will have to take into account the social aspects to the conflict including the ideological and identity-based tensions. Yemen is not a homogenous society and any assertion that Yemen is one identity is seriously undermined by the current conflicting agendas at play in the current crisis and the events and experience of the country in recent history is a motivator for the tension between the various parties today. Historically, in the North, there has been a long-standing struggle for power between the Zaidi sect and the majority Sunni population whereby traditional Zaydi rule has prevailed leading to a long standing and successful marginalization of the majority Sunni from real political power. This backdrop is one of the main contributing factors to the Houthi takeover and control of Northern Yemen today. The Zaydi sect is known to be a moderate form of Shia Islam and their control of power allowed for the more extreme form of Shia Islam brought about by the Houthi movement and developing to bear a regional dimension with Iranian influence seeking to replicate the experience of Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. In the South, the Southern the social and challenges are distinct from the north and the issue of identity has a different dimension entirely. The Southern identity has developed to be one of the

most clear expressed motivators for the Southern calls for the re-establishment of the Southern state and the Southern case has continued to be asserted through the current crisis with some arguing that it has been one of the reasons for the lack of progress in “liberating” the country from Houthi militias and that the continuing insistence by Southerners to assert their identity and calls for the reestablishment of the Southern state during this crisis has weakened the internationally recognized Hadi government in its efforts to win the war against the Houthi. Southerners on the other hand argue that dismissing Southern aspirations is one of the reasons for demotivating Southerners and past experiences have given Southerners very little confidences that if the war against the Houthi was won that the aspirations would be allowed to be realized and that they would simply be oppressed again at a time when they can do very little to resist and now is the time to assert their demands when they are at their strongest since the 1994 and have control over Aden and large areas of the South amidst strong positive popular sentiments. There is no doubt that the ability to end the Yemen crisis is no longer in the control of the Yemen parties at war but regional and international influence dictates. The impact of regional intervention began with the regional players alleging themselves to the conflicting parties and so the conflict has developed to be a war fought by the Yemeni parties for their interests but also the interest of their regional players. Saudi Arabia’s support for the internationally recognized movement, the Iranian support for the Houthi militia, and the UAE’s support for the Southern Transitional Council and the Tariq Saleh forces has cemented a state of affairs that has complicated the crisis and made the ending even more elusive. The multitude of contrasting agendas has made any spirit of compromise elusive hence why there has been little progress made by the various international initiatives to evolve the issue, and four Special Envoys have failed to make any real progress and the Crisis continues.

5. Conclusion

By process tracing the political changes to understand the impact on regional and international intervention in the Yemen crisis, post-colonial theory and social constructivism are still relevant today through the interpretation of many dimensions of the current conflict and its roots that touched the thesis through the analyzes of qualitative data by elite informant’s experiences on Yemen. The regional powers represented by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened indirectly through initiatives in the Arab Spring and then directly after the coup and war caused by Houthis in 2015. The reality of the Yemen crisis has crept into various influences since post- colonialism, previous political regimes in South and North Yemen, unity in Yemen in 1990, the civil war in 1994 and the Arab Spring in 2011, the outcomes of the national dialogue 2014, and then regional and international intervention. Thus, regional and international powers have applied it to an already divided society at a time when it was weak and divided by an identity crisis and various ideologies including southern compensation as a major issue and one of the reasons for the state's failure to survive. furthermore, Yemen includes different identities in the south and north, as the current crisis has largely shown that regional interventions came to support its national security, common borders, and then religious affiliations as Saudi Arabia supports the Sunni side in the areas that follow the state led by President Hadi, and Iran supports Zaydism in the northern regions that are under Houthi control, and the fact of ending the crisis in Yemen has not been considered under the control of the conflicting parties, but has become an arena of proxy war. Despite the intervention of the region and the international community to resolve the crisis in Yemen, international initiatives and resolutions from the United Nations submitted for peace since 2016 did not make a difference, but rather increased complications and failed – as the war continues.

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7. Appendix

Transcripts Interviews link (Google Drive) https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1yrmx909GO43jpSTN9Xe8v5JERFq4kPVt?usp=sharing