THE GULF MONARCHIES BEYOND THE ARAB CHANGES AND SPRING CHALLEN GES Edited by: LUIGI NARBONE MARTIN LESTRA This work has been published by the European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. © European University Institute 2015 Editorial matter and selection © editors 2015 Chapters © authors individually 2015 This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the year and the publisher Views expressed in this publication reflect the opinion of individual authors and not those of the European University Institute. THE GULF MONARCHIES BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING: CHANGES AND CHALLENGES Foreword This E-book is the result of a conference on “The Gulf Region, Domestic Dynamics and Global-Regional Perspectives. Implications for the European Union”, hosted by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies in spring 2015. The Scientific Director for the conference was Amb. Luigi Narbone, an EU Institutional Fellow at the EUI for the academic year 2014/15. As part of its global governance programme, the Schuman Centre was delighted to host a conference on this important region, the Gulf. Regionalism is a growing phenomenon in global politics and understanding the role and dynamics of different regions in necessary to understand the complexity and interdependence of our world. The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) consisting of six monarchies is a regional and global actor. The Gulf has come to assume a growing significance in regional politics and the Gulf states have a major influence on events within and beyond the region. Although not large states, these countries have considerable financial clout arising from the role as major oil producers and have strong preferences about regional order. The objective of the conference was twofold, (a) to explore domestic and international drivers of change and (b) to analyse the role of the Gulf in the geopolitics of the Middle East in the context of the Arab Spring and its aftermath. The Gulf states are key actors in the MENA region and are competitors to Iran whom they regard with deep mistrust. The conference certainly achieved its objective; the chapters capture the range and diversity of the vibrant intellectual debate that took place during the course of the conference. For all Gulf states and the region, there are major challenges to be faced to do with the sustainability of their economic model and the security threats arising from failed states and the role of Iran in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. They must manage internal reform while at the same time addressing the exigencies of an unstable environment. The role of the Gulf and instability in the MENA region poses challenges too for the European Union. To date EU cooperation with the Gulf region has been minimalist. Continuing this approach is unwise given the importance of the Gulf and Europe’s interest in restoring a degree of order to this troubled part of the world. Luigi Narbone is to be congratulated for organizing an excellent conference and ensuring that the conference contributions are captured in this E-book. The Schuman Centre is fully committed to research and policy dialogue on this part of Europe’s neighbourhood. Brigid Laffan Director Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies THE GULF MONARCHIES BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING. CHANGES AND CHALLENGES Edited by LUIGI NARBONE MARTIN LESTRA TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 Luigi Narbone and Martin Lestra SECTION 1 BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING. GULF COUNTRIES’ DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE. THE GCC ECONOMIC MODEL IN AN AGE OF AUSTERITY 5 Steffen Hertog, Associate Professor, London School of Economics IMMIGRATION VS. POPULATION IN THE GULF 11 Philippe Fargues, Director, Migration Policy Centre, European University Institute CHANGING GLOBAL DYNAMICS BETWEEN THE GULF, 18 THE US, AND ASIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU Abdullah Baabood. Director, Gulf Studies Center, Qatar University SECTION 2 BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING. THE GULF COUNTRIES AND THE MIDDLE EASTERN GEOPOLITICS THE SHIA-SUNNI DIVIDE: WHEN RELIGION 25 MASKS GEO-STRATEGY Olivier Roy, Chair in Mediterranean Studies, European University Institute TRANSNATIONAL IDENTITIES AFTER THE ARAB UPRISINGS 32 Toby Matthiesen, Senior Research Fellow in the International Relations of the Middle East, St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford THE GULF MONARCHIES AND IRAN: BETWEEN CONFRONTATION AND GEOSTRATEGIC REALITIES 38 Marc Valeri, Director, Centre for Gulf Studies, University of Exeter ARTICULATING THE NEW GULF COUNTRIES’ INTERVENTIONISM: 46 WHAT LESSONS CAN BE DRAWN FROM THE CASE OF SAUDI ARABIA AND YEMEN? Abubakr Al-Shamahi, Journalist, Al-Araby al-Jadeeda JIHADIST DYNAMICS AFTER THE ARAB REVOLTS AND THEIR 53 IMPACTS ON SAUDI ARABIA Dominique Thomas, Associate Researcher, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) CONCLUSION. THE GULF REGION BEYOND THE ARAB SPRING. 63 WHAT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU? Luigi Narbone. Director of the Mediterranean Programme, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute. INTRODUCTION standing foreign policy patterns and become more assertive in the numerous crises of the MENA Luigi Narbone and Martin Lestra region and more willing to shape the political transition in many countries. When in late 2014 the Robert Schuman Centre While there was consensus on the fact that the for Advanced Studies of the European University Gulf region had become an increasingly important Institute decided to organize a conference on ‘The actor, many questions about the future of these Gulf region: domestic dynamics and global- monarchies and their role in the global and regional regional perspectives. Implications for the EU’ arenas were left unanswered. Is the Gulf economic (Florence, Italy, 20-21 April 2015), the interest of model sustainable in times of low oil prices? And researchers and policy-makers in the Gulf was what would the impact be of diminishing growth already high. on political stability? How do structural factors such as demography and continuing dependence A decade of positive developments had changed on oil and gas revenues limit the Gulf countries’ the status of the region. The Gulf was now broadly capacity to maintain sustained economic growth? recognized as one of the emerging regions of the What does the pivot towards Asia entail for world. In addition to their continuing prominence the security of Gulf countries? How does the as oil and gas producers and exporters – made geo-political confrontation with Iran shape the even more significant by a long cycle of high deepening sectarianism? How successful can they oil prices which had lasted well into 2014 – the be at insulating themselves from instability and Gulf countries had been experiencing important projecting their interests in the Middle East? How transformations brought about by years of booming united are the Gulf countries in their perceptions economies, huge infrastructure investments, of and reactions against the external Iranian futuristic modernization of cities and attempts to threat? What are the bases and consequences of move away from over-reliance on hydrocarbon the Gulf countries’ new interventionism? production by making the region a hub for global transportation and financial services. Sustained The conference was conceived as an attempt to growth had translated into the Gulf countries understand the different dynamics at play in playing expanding international and investor the region. It had the ambition to try to connect roles worldwide; this had been accompanied by different levels, from the local to the transnational a gradual shift towards Asia in international and to the global, and to look at the unexplored links trade relations. between domestic, regional and external factors. The conference speakers, academics, policy- Interest in the Gulf had further grown during the makers, journalists and financial experts all Arab Spring, when many questions were raised brought different perspectives to the discussion. about the impact on the political sustainability of the authoritarian Gulf monarchies of the Three key issues were raised. First, the Arab Spring revolutionary wave that swept over the Arab and its consequences in the broader MENA region world. Attention on the Gulf countries increased have put the changes in the Gulf polities to the even more in the aftermath of the uprising, when test. Exploration of structural issues such as the it became apparent that they had emerged as Gulf’s fiscal, immigration and (non-) integration powerful regional players. In the face of regional policies created the background to often challenges, they started to change their long- overlooked domestic challenges that have regional 1 The Gulf Monarchies Beyond the Arab Spring. Changes and Challenges and international implications. The discussion In the second chapter, Philippe Fargues addresses went beyond assessment of the stability of the demography and migration policies in the Gulf as GCC states during and after the Arab Spring. The key determinants of its economic development. structural aspects examined helped qualify the He analyses the shortcomings of the current paradigm of rentier states, which does not fully migration policies and the factors which may in capture the dynamics at work in this region. the long term destabilize