KING ABDULLAH's GAME: AUTOCRATS and GLOBALIZED INTERESTS a Thesis Submitted to the Kent State University Honors College In
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KING ABDULLAH’S GAME: AUTOCRATS AND GLOBALIZED INTERESTS A thesis submitted to the Kent State University Honors College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for University Honors by Sarah Jane Krisanda May, 2013 Thesis written by Sarah Jane Krisanda Approved by ________________________________________________________________, Advisor ________________________________________, Chair, Department of Political Science Accepted by _____________________________________________________, Dean, Honors College ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………………………………iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………….v CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………...1 II. CONTEXT……………………………………………………………….14 III. INTEREST COALITION MODEL……………………………………...32 IV. ISLAMIC INTEREST COALITION NETWORK……………………...40 V. STATUS QUO INTEREST COALITION NETWORK………………...50 VI. REFORM INTEREST COALITION NETWORK……………………...56 VII. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………..71 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………..74 iii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1………………………………………………………………………………..37 FIGURE 2………………………………………………………………………………..41 FIGURE 3………………………………………………………………………………..56 iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis is a product of two years of laughter, tears, triumph, pain, and a whole lot of helpful people. I want to thank Virginia, David, and John Krisanda for their unconditional love and support. Thanks to my entire family for all your prayers and encouragement. Thank you, Hamish Wallace and all my brothers from Alpha Phi Omega for everything. Thank you Jamie Johnson, Melisa Michael, and Victoria Sack for bringing me tea every time I pulled an all-nighter. I could not ask for better friends. Many thanks go to Jeanne Smith and Gina DeNardi. I appreciate all of the guidance you have given me about writing and life. You kept me sane, and you forever changed the way I think about learning. Thank you for always believing in me. I appreciate the scholars of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Special thanks go to Dr. Frances Trix and Dr. David Ottaway. It has been a pleasure. Thank you, also, to Dr. Richard Robyn and the Washington Program in National Issues class of 2013. I have learned how to find the right answers at Kent State University, but one person taught me how to ask the right questions. Ahmed, thank you for your stories. You are the reason I began this thesis. v Thank you, Dr. Joshua Stacher, Dr. Sara Newman, and Dr. Patti Dunmire. I appreciate all of your patience and your willingness to work with me. The passion you each have for knowledge and learning made my thesis worth writing. My greatest appreciation goes out to Dr. Julie Mazzei. Without her, I never would have completed this project. In fact if her first class had not introduced me to the interesting side of politics, I never would have pursued a political science degree. Mazzei, I can never thank you enough for all you have done for me. For all the emails you replied to at four in the morning, for all the times you put up with my hysterics, for every moment you asked me to consider a different idea, and for every time you expanded my world, I thank you. vi CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The escalation of the Arab Awakening has raised doubts as to whether the autocracies of the Middle East will be able to survive much longer. Uprisings have torn through the Middle East, rejecting repressive governments. As each new country rises up against its government, we are all left asking, “who’s next?” Most of the world turned a blind eye to authoritarianism, human rights abuses and social issues in the oil-producing countries of this region as long as the oil kept flowing. The world believed that even though the living conditions for the people of these countries were not ideal, the regimes were at least stable and would continue to export oil. Now that the stability of so many of these regimes has been rattled, it is critical to understand why some regimes have fallen and others have not. In an increasingly globalized society, the recent upheaval affects our entire world’s dynamic. The Middle East exerts a unique kind of influence on the world stage. Because the Middle East holds some of the largest stores of oil, its countries are vitally important in the global economy. The conservatism of the region’s social and cultural life is highly publicized for its slow crawl towards reform. Politically, the Middle East represents a collection of autocracies, and it is infamous for its isolated extremism. Saudi Arabia is unique even among other Middle Eastern states. 1 2 Saudi Arabia, as a crucial source of oil for the United States and other countries, is particularly important on the world stage. It maintains an appearance of relative stability among uprisings in Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and Yemen, but this stability should not be taken for granted. Saudi Arabia possesses characteristics similar to the political environments in the aforementioned countries, but its governance is handled with an elevated finesse. Not only is the government different, the society has a deeply imbedded tradition that sets it apart from the region. To understand the reasons Saudi Arabia is different from the rest of the Middle East, political scientists’ understanding of stability maintenance needs to be re-contextualized. Today, political, economic, social, and cultural interests from around the globe intersect and are challenging the way we think about analysis. The structure of analysis used by international political analysts is outdated, and its resulting conclusions skew our interpretation of Saudi Arabia and our world. How does King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia manage both domestic and global interests to maintain the survival of his regime? In this study, I will attempt to explain how Saudi Arabia has balanced global integration and societal isolation to maintain its stability. In the process, I will explain why current methodologies are no longer adequate to analyze the decision-making factors of governance and propose a revised theoretical model in response to the increasing trend of globalization. I will use the case of Saudi Arabia as a framework to focus on the ways in which autocratic leaders have adapted to the globalized demands placed upon them. Literature Review 3 Current political analysis of international factors on domestic leaders’ actions examines the roles of political actors, namely, individuals, states, and systems. Political interactions among these actors shape the way in which policy decisions are made. Individuals play a central role in policy making. Their behavior is influenced by many internal factors like their characters, ideologies, irrationalities, idiosyncrasies, and experiences. These internal factors contribute to the interactions individuals have with other individuals, and these interactions shape international relations (Rourke & Boyer, 2010). Another level of political analysis focuses on the ways states interact with each other. The global governance system recognizes that state sovereignty is central to political interactions. This means that states retain the right to their individual authority, and they act as distinct political actors. States contain similar internal influences in the form of societal norms, government structures, and national contexts. These characteristics affect the ways in which they interact with the international community (Rourke & Boyer, 2010). System-level analysis examines the restraints on international relations. It focuses on the structures of interactions among political actors. Systems are affected by the organization of authority and the nature of relationships among actors. The economic and political contexts of international relations influence the ways political actors interact and form policy, and system-level analysis focuses on the ways context and relationships affect global politics (Rourke & Boyer, 2010). These three “levels of analysis” are falling short of fully examining political interaction. I argue here that utilizing these distinct 4 levels of analysis in scholarship has been made obsolete due to globalization, which has blurred the lines between actors in the different arenas. Globalization takes many forms in the 21st century. Economic, social, political, technological, and cultural spheres are colliding and integrating. These spheres work together to form systems of cooperation. Globalization is the merging of peoples, economies, and ideologies, and it is transforming the way we think about politics (Brown, 2008; Lindholm & Olsson, 2011). Brown (2008) describes the evolution of globalization, writing, “prior globalizations were characterized by the obvious exploitative elements of military expansion and colonialism, [but] the current era of globalization has been brimming with promises for human development and global advancement” (p. 47). The evolution of technology and global capitalist markets has played a key role in enmeshing the ways in which international actors may influence domestic policy-makers. Both economics and technology are changing the face of cosmopolitans’ social spheres1. The global market has brought people together as cosmopolitans, and technology has increased the speed with which people come in contact with each other. Socially, “the global sphere can give rise to increased cultural understanding and resilience as well as create and aggregate tensions between national, social, and cultural groups” (Lindholm and Olsson, 2001, p. 225). As tensions grow, transnational actors form networks of interests,