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Changed Priorities in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia and the Emirates Rethink

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Changed Priorities in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia and the Emirates Rethink Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Comments Changed Priorities in the Gulf WP Saudi Arabia and the Emirates Rethink Their Relationship with Egypt Matthias Sailer S Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are likely to scale back noticeably on their generous financial gifts to Egypt under its President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. In the one year that King Salman has ruled Saudi Arabia, the kingdom has improved rela- tions with the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization the Egyptian regime portrays as the source of all evil. Riyadh’s overriding priority is now to stem Iran’s influence in the region, particularly in Yemen and Syria. However, in Syria especially, al-Sisi’s stance diverges from Saudi Arabia’s. Moreover, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are frustrated by the lack of progress Egypt has made in improving its financial, economic and security situation. In addition, low oil prices have brought about a more restrictive spending policy in the Gulf. Consequently, for the first time since the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi, Germany and the EU have an opportunity to push for change in Egypt by offering financial support that is made conditional on implementing measures to increase political participation and improve governance. Between 2011 and the death of the Saudi Gulf Cooperation Council, primarily from King Abdullah in January 2015, Saudi and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, marched into UAE regional policies primarily targeted Bahrain. Their mission was to support Bah- preventing the so-called Arab Spring from rain’s ruling family in violently putting spilling over onto the Arab Peninsula. For down a popular uprising. At the time, Bah- the rulers of the two autocratically governed rain’s leaders accused Iran of inciting the Gulf States these rebellions represented an country’s mainly Shiite population against existential threat. It became apparent as the ruling Sunni dynasty, though without early as 2011 that both countries’ foreign providing any evidence. policies were being militarized. This mili- However, both Gulf regimes saw the tarization occurred in parallel with the US, main threat as coming from the Muslim which for decades had guaranteed Saudi Brotherhood. That organization emerged security, reducing its military commitment victorious from Egypt’s first democratic elec- in the region. A foreign policy relying on tions in 2011/2012; and in Tunisia Ennahda, military means was first seen in March which is close to the Brotherhood, received 2011, when military and police units of the the most votes in the October 2011 elections. Matthias Sailer is a Ph.D. Fellow in SWP’s Middle East and Africa Division. These Comments are published in the frame of the project SWP Comments 8 “Elite change and new social mobilization in the Arab world” realized by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) between 2012 and 2015. January 2016 It was funded by the German Foreign Office in the framework of the transformation partnerships with the Arab World and the Robert Bosch Stiftung. It cooperated with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and the Ph.D. grant programs of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung and the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung. 1 The regimes of both Gulf States were con- well as the birthplace of the Muslim cerned that with its ever growing political Brotherhood, it initially had a key role influence, the Brotherhood might under- in the Saudi and UAE fight against that mine their systems of government from organization. Egypt. In the 1950s and 1960s, many mem- bers and sympathizers of the Egyptian Mus- lim Brotherhood had fled to Saudi Arabia Opponent: Qatar and the UAE to escape persecution in their On the other side were the rulers of Qatar, own country. Originally, these mostly well which supported the Muslim Brothers. They educated immigrants had been well received viewed the organization’s rise as a chance in the Gulf States as a boost to the educa- to extend their own regional and inter- tional sector, which was then being ex- national influence further. For decades, the panded. As teachers, however, they were country had been cultivating close relation- also able to spread their own ideology. ships with the Muslim Brothers and other Additionally, they became active in the civil Islamist organizations. It therefore seemed society, for instance in the charity sector. likely that Qatar would be among those Following the Muslim Brothers’ increasingly profiting most from regime change in the political behaviour, Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries in turmoil. However, with UAE prohibited their activities in the 1990s. Morsi’s overthrow in July 2013 and the sub- In 2011 the concern in the Gulf was that the sequent repression of the Muslim Brother- Egyptian Brotherhood might incite those hood by the new military regime, it became parts of the population that had been in- evident that this strategy would not work. fluenced by its ideology to rise up against From that point on, the Qatari leadership the monarchies. How threatened the rulers was increasingly forced to realize that it of the UAE felt by this scenario is shown by could not maintain its foreign policy against the fact that legal proceedings were insti- the will of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both tuted there against more than 100 people of which supported the new regime in between April 2011 and November 2014. Cairo. Most of the accused were charged with When Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bah- founding a secret organization affiliated rain recalled their ambassadors to Qatar in with the Muslim Brotherhood with the March 2014, the pressure became too great. aim of toppling the UAE regime. Some of Towards the end of the year, Qatar already the accused were Egyptians. seemed to be moving closer to its former Alongside the anxiety about an “export opponents’ position. At that time, for in- of revolutions” promoted by the Muslim stance, the Qatari leadership let it be known Brotherhood, there was a concern that to several high-ranking Brotherhood offi- Egypt under the Brotherhood might seek a cials living within its borders that their rapprochement with Iran. In August 2012 presence was putting great pressure on Mohammed Morsi was the first Egyptian Qatar. They left the country. The emirate President to travel to Tehran since the 1979 thus partly met Saudi and UAE demands Revolution. Further state visits between the not to give shelter to Egyptian dissidents. two countries followed. The Muslim Brother- This was good news for the military regime hood stressed that this upgrading of Iran in Cairo. was not aimed at the Arab Gulf states, but the latter remained sceptical. When a high- ranking official of the Muslim Brotherhood The end of the Saudi-Emirati block stated in June 2013 that the UAE would be- against the Muslim Brotherhood come “slaves of the Persians”, the Emirates’ Developments, however, took a different leaders saw their fears confirmed. And since turn. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia died in Egypt is the most populous Arab country as January 2015, depriving Cairo of one of its SWP Comments 8 January 2016 2 most important supporters. The new king, former enemies. The Yemeni Islah and Saudi Salman bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, changed Arabia had been on hostile terms after Saudi regional policy by speedily imple- Riyadh declared the Muslim Brotherhood menting a rapprochement with the Muslim a terrorist organization in March 2014. Brotherhood. This went hand in hand with In addition, there has been close coopera- a rapprochement with Qatar and Turkey as tion with Qatar and Turkey in Syria since well as a slight cooling of relations between spring 2015. The military successes of the Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. rebel alliance Jaish al-Fatah, forged by Saudi Since Salman’s accession, there have been Arabia and Qatar, brought Bashar al-Assad’s many reports about high-level meetings regime close to military defeat in the sum- of the Saudi leadership with top-ranking mer of that year. This rebel alliance includes officials of regional Brotherhood affiliates, militias that can be categorized as belong- such as Rashid al-Ghannouchi (Tunisia), ing to the Muslim Brotherhood. The defeat Hammam Saeed (Jordan) and Khaled of the government troops was ultimately Meshaal, the representative of Palestinian prevented by Russia’s military intervention Hamas. So far, the highpoint has been in autumn 2015. Riyadh’s ambassador to Doha inviting the influential Egyptian legal scholar and TV preacher Yusuf al-Qaradawi for the occasion UAE: readjustment rather than of the Saudi national day in October 2015. change of course Few people symbolize the aversion to Egypt’s Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE have not military regime quite as much as al-Qara- initiated a clear policy change on the Mus- dawi, who is close to the Muslim Brothers lim Brotherhood. However, careful readjust- and has been living in exile in Qatar for ments are perceptible here, too. In Yemen, decades. for instance, the UAE demonstrate pragma- At the same time, King Salman has been tism. Despite not directly working together seeking closer relations with Qatar and with the Yemeni Islah against the Houthis, Turkey (Ankara’s relationship with Egypt they support the Saudi approach, which is tense as well). Photos of a meeting held comprises cooperating with the movement. in February 2015 by Mohammed bin Nayef, Ultimately, therefore, Abu Dhabi’s policy now the Saudi crown prince, and deputy indirectly strengthens the Yemeni Islah. crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, with While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have the Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani essentially been on good terms since showed the participants in a good mood: Salman’s accession, there is also potential clearly, relations between Saudi Arabia and for conflict.
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