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http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/ Research Commons at the University of Waikato Copyright Statement: The digital copy of this thesis is protected by the Copyright Act 1994 (New Zealand). The thesis may be consulted by you, provided you comply with the provisions of the Act and the following conditions of use: Any use you make of these documents or images must be for research or private study purposes only, and you may not make them available to any other person. Authors control the copyright of their thesis. You will recognise the author’s right to be identified as the author of the thesis, and due acknowledgement will be made to the author where appropriate. You will obtain the author’s permission before publishing any material from the thesis. Religion and Political Survival: The Regional Strategies of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science at The University of Waikato by ESTELLE TOWNSHEND-DENTON 2020 Abstract Do Middle Eastern regimes use the contest between secularism and religion as a domestic authoritarian survival strategy, and if so, has this been projected into their regional policies in response to the ‘Arab Spring’? Post-Secular Theory has focused on the role of religion in domestic politics, neglecting the international and regional sphere, whilst also disproportionately focusing on the West, neglecting, for instance, the Middle East. To address this gap in the literature, this research looks at the domestic motivations for foreign policy, specifically for the purposes of regime survival in four key states: Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. The investigation uses existing theories that consider regime survival strategies, such as Selectorate Theory, and religion and domestic politics, including Jonathan Fox’s Secular-Religious Competition Perspective. These have been adapted and applied to the Middle East, exploring their usefulness beyond providing explanations for domestic political behaviour. To test this, the co-optation patterns of sect and degree of secularism/fundamentalism within Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar was compared to the militias sponsored by each respective regime in the civil wars in Syria and Yemen as a means of discovering the existence of authoritarian survival strategies that use religion in the regional sphere. The research found that the case study states sponsored militias that matched the regime’s domestic winning coalition of support in terms of position on the secular-fundamentalist scale and sect. The secular-fundamentalist scale was created to rate the regimes and the militias in terms of religiosity. In doing so, it provides a tool for assessing the ongoing societal contest between secularism and religion, as outlined by Fox’s Secular-Religious Competition Perspective. The significance of this research is that it establishes the presence of the contest between secularism and religion, and also sectarianism, as regime survival strategies in the regional sphere, specifically in militia sponsorship in Yemen and Syria. Therefore, this research proposes the incorporation of an additional causal variable into explanations for international state behaviour in the Middle East: the desire of elites to stay in power and the subsequent regional externalisation of the domestic strategies they use to secure their rule. ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank Reuben Steff and Mark Rolls for their great supervision and the interesting conversations (PhD related and otherwise). I am very grateful. iii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter One: Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Sectarianism, Secularism and Fundamentalism as Regional Authoritarian Survival Strategies ......... 3 Primary Research Question: ............................................................................................................... 6 Secondary Research Questions: .......................................................................................................... 6 Structural Realism, Black Boxes and Authoritarian Survival Strategies .............................................. 6 Religion and Authoritarian Survival Strategies ................................................................................... 8 Expanding the Competition Perspective to International Relations and Foreign Policy Analysis ...... 9 Thesis Structure ................................................................................................................................ 12 Chapter Two: Theoretical Framework The Intersection of Religion and Political Survival................... 16 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 16 A Brief History of Religion and Politics in Europe ............................................................................. 18 The Peace of Westphalia and the Emergence of Secularism ........................................................ 21 Challenges to Secularization Theory ................................................................................................. 23 Post-Secular Theory .......................................................................................................................... 25 The Theoretical Framework: Theories on Religion and Political Survival ......................................... 27 De Mesquito and Smith’s Selectorate Theory .............................................................................. 28 Feuer’s Ideas of Religious Regulation ........................................................................................... 30 Buzan’s Idea of the State .............................................................................................................. 31 Fox’s Secular-Religious Competition Perspective ......................................................................... 33 Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Framework ........................................................................... 35 Hintz’s Theory of Identity Hegemony ........................................................................................... 38 Religion, Power and Political Survival: Theory Adaptions to Fit International Relations ................. 40 iv Authoritarian Survival Strategies in the Regional Sphere ................................................................. 45 Knitting it Together: Realist Constructivism ..................................................................................... 46 Realist Constructivism: Power and Identity ................................................................................. 46 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 48 The Secular-Fundamentalist Scale ................................................................................................ 49 Militia Sponsorship Patterns: Method, Language Sources and Data Issues ................................. 54 Research Focus and Case Studies ................................................................................................. 55 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 60 Chapter Three: Secular-Religious Competition and Religious Identity in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar .............................................................................................................................................. 62 Alternative Explanations ................................................................................................................... 65 Regime Survival and the Secular-Religious Contest in the Middle East ........................................... 67 Regime Survival and the Secular-Religious Contest in Iran .......................................................... 68 Regime Survival and the Secular-Religious Contest in Saudi Arabia............................................. 70 Regime Survival and the Secular-Religious Contest in the UAE .................................................... 72 Regime Survival and the Secular-Religious Contest in Qatar ........................................................ 75 Conclusion: Secular-Religious Competition Perspective .............................................................. 77 Authoritarian Durability, Political Selectorates and the Secular-Religious Contest ......................... 79 Applying Selectorate Theory to the Case Study States ..................................................................... 85 Strategies for Maintaining Identity-based Real Selectorates: Iran ..............................................
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