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Reassessing Rebellion Reassessing Rebellion: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics | i REASSESSING REBELLION EXPLORING RECENT TRENDS IN CIVIL WAR DYNAMICS An OEF Research Report REASSESSING REBELLION: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics Eric Keels Jay Benson John Filitz Joshua Lambert March 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.18289/OEF.2019.035 ©Copyright One Earth Future 2019. All rights reserved Cover photo: Members of Jihadist group Hamza Abdualmuttalib train near Aleppo on July 19, 2012. Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Image Produced in cooperation with Human Security Report Project TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 01 Key Findings .........................................................................................................................................02 Summary of Policy Suggestions .............................................................................................................02 I. OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................ 03 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................03 Stucture .................................................................................................................................................04 II. MODES OF WARFARE ..............................................................................................................05 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................05 Data and Trends.....................................................................................................................................06 Conventional vs. Irregular Wars: General Trends ..................................................................................08 Contemporary Wars ..............................................................................................................................15 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................20 III. TRENDS IN REBEL USE OF CIVILIAN VICTIMIZATION ...................................................... 22 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................22 Characteristics and Drivers of One-Sided Violence ...............................................................................22 Trends in Rebel One-Sided Violence ......................................................................................................24 Sexual Violence in Civil War...................................................................................................................28 The Strategic Logic of Terrorism ............................................................................................................32 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................35 IV. LOCATION OF ARMED CONFLICT .......................................................................................... 36 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................36 Location and Geography in Armed Conflict ...........................................................................................37 Data and Trends.....................................................................................................................................38 A Closer Look: Examining Recent Trends in South Sudan and the DRC .................................................42 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................48 V. ORGANIZATION OF REBEL GROUPS ....................................................................................... 49 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................49 Rebel Group Ideology ............................................................................................................................49 Trends in Rebel Group Ideology ............................................................................................................50 Rebel Group Structure ...........................................................................................................................54 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................60 VI. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .................................... 61 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................61 Assessing New Rebellions .....................................................................................................................61 Summary of Policy Options for the International Community .............................................................62 THIS PAGE WAS LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY Reassessing Rebellion: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics | 1 The report addresses four components of armed conflict: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY how wars are fought (conventional versus asymmetric), The last two decades have built a significant amount of who is targeted by rebel violence, where civil war violence knowledge surrounding armed conflict; both academic is occurring within countries, and how the structures of research and widely distributed policy reports have rebel organizations have evolved over the last few decades. pointed to a general decline in armed conflict. The decline, In addition to identifying trends, this report also offers though, has largely ended: 2016 represented one of the suggestions on policies to mitigate the effects of armed worst years for armed conflict since the end of the Cold conflict as well as reduce the likelihood that international War, with over 50 separate armed conflicts occurring. involvement will exacerbate ongoing insurgencies. The Though fighting decreased somewhat in 2017, the current report points to a clear evolution in the organizational surge in civil wars represents a stark departure from past structures of rebel groups and where rebels are seeking trends. With this point in mind, it is notable that past to contest state control. This may have unintended reports often focused simply on the prevalence of armed consequences for how the international community seeks conflict as opposed to exploring variations within armed to manage future armed conflicts. conflict. Many reports on the trends in armed conflict also The first part of this report examines how rebel groups are provide little in the way of concrete policy suggestions prosecuting civil wars; in particular, how often insurgents to mitigate it. While informative, past reports do little to are using asymmetric violence as opposed to conventional prepare policymakers for what wars will look like in the armed conflicts. The findings indicate that while asymmetric twenty-first century. insurgencies remain the most common form of warfare, To address this gap, OEF Research has produced a new current political dynamics are making conventional civil report that explores the shifting dynamics of civil wars. wars easier for dissidents to mount. In the following section, this report explores the use of civilian victimization as a Syrian rebel fighters from the ‘National Liberation Front’ parade following military training at an unknown location in the northern countryside of the Idlib province on September 11, 2018, in anticipation for an upcoming government forces offensive. photo: AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images 2 | Reassessing Rebellion: Exploring Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics deliberate strategy of rebel groups, focusing on one-sided 3. Despite the international focus on urban fighting killings, sexual violence, and soft-target terrorist attacks. The in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, most civil war battles report then covers how the location of civil war violence is are moving farther away from major cities changing. Civil war battles, in general, appear to be moving rather than moving closer. Unfortunately, recent away from major cities, while rebel one-sided violence is trends in rebel violence suggest that rebels starting to move closer to major cities. Finally, the report are attacking civilians closer to major cities. includes a look at how rebel group structures are evolving These trends may depend on domestic political over time. In particular, the findings suggest that rebels are stability and subnational geographic factors. becoming more decentralized and more religious. The report then concludes with a summary of findings and offers broad 4. Rebel groups are becoming more decentralized policy suggestions for dealing with new insurgencies. and more religious, with most new rebel groups One key facet of this report is that it provides a composite adopting Islamic ideological goals. Though sketch of what the typical
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