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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. THE IRAQ EFFECT The Middle East After the Iraq War Frederic Wehrey Dalia Dassa Kaye Jessica Watkins Jeffrey Martini Robert A. Guffey Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Iraq effect : the Middle East after the Iraq War / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4788-5 (pbk.) 1. United States—Foreign relations—Middle East. 2. Middle East—Foreign relations—United States. 3. Iraq War, 2003–—Influence. 4. Middle East— Strategic aspects. I. Wehrey, Frederic M. DS63.2.U5I73 2010 956.7044'31—dc22 2009053859 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect Rthe opinions of its research clients and sponsors. ® is a registered trademark. Cover design: Peter Soriano © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The research reported here was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, Direc- tor of Operational Planning and Strategy (A5X), Headquarters United States Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Pro- gram of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a fiscal year 2008 study “Iraq Effects: Emerging Threats to U.S. Interests in the Greater Middle East.” This monograph should be of interest to U.S. security policymakers, military planners, and analysts and observers of regional affairs in the Middle East and Central and South Asia. The goal of this work is to advance understanding of the regional implications of the Iraq War by offering an assessment of trends, threats, and opportunities in the Middle East, drawing from exten- sive field-based research and primary sources. The monograph covers balance-of-power realignments, focusing on Iranian activism, Arab diplomatic disarray, and Turkey’s new prominence; shifting local per- ceptions of U.S. credibility and the increased roles of such extraregional powers as China and Russia; the war’s effects on sectarianism, ethnic activism, and political reform; and how the conflict has shaped future terrorist strategy, ideology, and tactics. By referring to an “Iraq effect,” we do not suggest that the war is the sole driver behind these impor- tant regional dynamics. Rather, we use the expression as a framework or a lens to capture the ways in which key U.S. policy challenges—the stability of pro-U.S. regimes, terrorism, and Iranian power, to name a few—have been affected by the Iraq War, either directly or indirectly. iii iv The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................ ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly ................................ 2 Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of These Shifts .................................................................... 4 The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our Analyses of Current Regional Trends ....................................... 7 The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate and Prepare for These New Realities .......................................10 This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect .....12 Organization of This Monograph ...............................................14 Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and Fieldwork ......................................................................15 CHAPTER TWO An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balance of Power ......................................................................17 Traditional Balance-of-Power Dynamics Are Shifting to Non-Arab States ...........................................................................18 The Rise of Iran: The Big Winner of the Iraq Conflict? ......................21 v vi The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War The Arab Response: More Hedging Than Balancing ........................ 26 The Two Faces of Iran in the Arab World .................................. 26 Suspicion of Iran Does Not Necessarily Translate into Pro-American Positions .................................................................... 30 Regional Ambivalence Toward Both Iran and the United States Undermines U.S. Attempts to Create an Anti-Iranian Alliance .....32 The Iraq War Has Reinforced and Created Strategic Challenges for Israel ...................................................................... 38 Iran Has Become Israel’s Key Regional Concern .......................... 38 Potential Instability in Jordan Is a Further Concern ...................... 40 Israeli Views on an American Withdrawal Hinge on Perceptions About Whether a Withdrawal Will Strengthen or Weaken U.S. Regional Influence ...................................................41 The Iraq War Has Complicated Turkey’s Strategic Relations with the United States and Iran ................................................. 43 The Conflict Exacerbated the Kurdish Challenge for Turkey ............ 43 The Conflict Has Led Turkey Toward Greater Regional Activism and More Cooperation with Iran ........................................45 Turkey’s Economic Interests Provide Opportunities for Convergence with U.S. Interests ........................................................ 46 Conclusion .........................................................................47 CHAPTER THREE New Challenges to American Influence: Chinese and Russian Roles in the Middle East...................................................49 Perceptions of Eroding U.S. Credibility ....................................... 50 Changing