Post Deyr '07/08 Technical Series

Technical Series Report No V. 14 March 7, 2008

2007/08 Post Deyr Analysis

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Kalson Towers, Parklands Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected]

Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support

European Commission

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 i Issued March 7, 2008 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 ii Issued March 7, 2008 Acknowledgement

FSAU would like to thank the forty five partner agencies for their participation and support in this assessment and analysis (Appendix 5.7). This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the technical participation of 42 partners and the efficient and timely logistical support provided our partners. This assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of the FSAU’s twenty six field based analysts who continue to work under very difficult conditions.

Technical Partners participating in the Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment

INGO/LNGOs: Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) - Puntland, Social-Life & Agriculture Development Organization - South (SADO), VETAID, MURDO, JDO, SAWA, PSAWEN, HIRDA, ERDO African Youth Development Association (AYODA), Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization (HAVAYOCO), Jubalandise Charity Centre (JCC), Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS), Africa Rescue Committee (AFREC), National Environ- mental Research and Disaster Preparedness (NERAD) - Somaliland.

Government Ministries: Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) - Somaliland, Min- istry of Planning and Rural Development (MPRD) - Somaliland, Ministry of Health and Labour (MoHL) - Somaliland, Ministry of Livestock (MoL) Somaliland, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) Somaliland, Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MoLG & RD)Puntland, Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) Puntland, Ministry of Planning & International co-operation (MOPIC) - Puntland, Ministry of Livestock Environment and Agriculture (MoLEA) - Puntland, Ministry of Health (MOH) - Puntland.

Local Authorities: Lower Juba Local Authority, Middle Shebelle Local Authority, Lower Shebelle Local Authority, Gedo Local Authority, Luuq Local Authority, South West Local Authority, Hiran & Central Local Authority, Buale Local Authority.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 iii Issued March 7, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 KEY FINDINGS 1 1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTION 2 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS 5 1.4 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 6

2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS 8

3. SECTOR REPORTS 11 3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME 11 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY 15 3.3 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION 16 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 22 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS 27 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW 28

4. REGIONAL ANALYSIS 32 4.1 SOUTHERN REGION 32 4.1.1. GEDO REGION 32 4.1.2 LOWER AND MIDDLE JUBA 37 4.1.3 BAY AND BAKOOL 44 4.1.4 LOWER AND MIDDLE SHABELLE 51 4.1.5 HIRAN REGION 57 4.2 CENTRAL REGION 61 4.3 NORTHEAST 65 4.4 NORTHWEST 68

5. APPENDIX 73 5.1 Recent developments in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 73 5.1.2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table 74 5.2 Time-Series of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifications (IPC) Maps of Somalia 2004 – 2008 76 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Gu 2007 to Deyr ’07/08 77 5.3.1 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08. 77 5.3.2 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 78 5.3.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 79 5.3.4 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Shabelle Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 80 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 81 5.3.6 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 82 5.3.7 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 83 5.4 Post Deyr ’07/08 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC for the period January to June 2008 84 5.4.1 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region, January to June, 2008 84 5.4.2 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District, January to June, 2008 85 5.4.3 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group, January to June, 2008 86 5.5 Deyr 2007/08 IDP Analysis 87 5.6 Livestock Herd Dynamics By Region and Livelihood Zone 88 5.6.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region 88 5.6.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Bay and Bakool Region 88 5.6.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Hiran and Juba Region 89 5.6.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 89 5.7 List of Partners that Participated in the FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment 90 5.8 Post DEYR ’07/08 Assessment Process, Analytical Tools and Timeline 91 5.8.1 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment Overall Timeline 91 5.8.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr ’07/08 Results 91 5.9 Assessment Instruments and Tools 92 5.9.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 92 5.9.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 95 5.9.3 FSAU IDP Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 97 5.94 FSAU Deyr ’07/08 Assessment: Conflict Monitoring Form 102

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 iv Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.5 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 104 5.9.6 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Framework for Estimating the Nutrition Situation 110 5.9.7 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment 113 5.10. Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 114

LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr ‘07/08 Population Numbers, Jan. - June 2008 2 Table 2: Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classiﬁcation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU Dec. 2007) 4 Table 3: Overview of 2007/08 Post Deyr Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline 8 Table 4: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage 14 Table 5: Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 16 Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates 17 Table 7: Local Cereal Production: Maize and Sorghum Availability in Southern Regions, July ’07 - June’08 18 Table 8: Local Production: Cereal and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions, July ’07 - June’08 18 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet June 2007 to May 2008 20 Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region 22 Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes 23 Table 12: Livestock Exported from Berbera Port (January - December ’07) 26 Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (January - December ’07) 26 Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –Dec. 07) 26 Table 15: Gedo: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 32 Table 16: Gedo: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 33 Table 17: Lower and Middle Juba: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 37 Table 18: Lower and Middle Juba: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 38 Table 19: Bay and Bakool: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 44 Table 20: Bay and Bakool: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 45 Table 21: Lower and Middle Shabelle: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 51 Table 22: Lower and Middle Shabelle: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 52 Table 23: Hiran Region: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 57 Table 24: Hiran Region: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 58 Table 25: Central Region: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 61 Table 26: Central Region: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 62

LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection January through June 2008 3 Map 2: Somalia - Post Deyr ’07 Assessment Data Point Locations 9 Map 3: Cumulative RFE for 2007 Deyr season (Oct.- Dec.) 11 Map 4: RFE percent of normal for 2007 Deyr Season (Oct. – Dec.) 11 Map 5: NDVI anomaly December 3rd dekad 2007 11 Map 6: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis 13 Map 7: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood Security (Nov. ’07 to Jan. ’07) 15 Map 8: Local Production Cereal Flow January ’08 19 Map 9: Somali Locust Watch by Livelihoods 21

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 v Issued March 7, 2008 Map 10: Livestock Migration Trends Dec. 07 - Jan. ’08 22 Map 11: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2007 29 Map 12: Estimated Nutrition Situation, July 2007 29 Map 13: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2008 29 Map 14: Gedo Region Livelihood Systems 32 Map 15: Food Security Phase Classification - Gedo 32 Map 16: Juba Regions Livelihood Systems 37 Map 17: Food Security Phase Classification – Juba 37 Map 18: Sorghum Belt Livelihood Systems 44 Map 19: Food Security Phase Classification Bay and Bakool Regions 44 Map 20: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems 51 Map 21: Food Security Phase Classification - Shabelle Region 51 Map 22: Hiran Livelihood Systems 57 Map 23: Food Security Phase Classification – Hiran 57 Map 24: Central Region Livelihood Systems 61 Map 25: Food Security Phase Classification - Central Region 61 Map 26: Northeast Region Livelihood Systems 65 Map 27: Food Security Phase Classification – Northeast Region 65 Map 28: Northwest Region: Livelihood Systems 68 Map 29: Food Security Phase Classification – Northwest Region 68

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Rainfall performance and NDVI for Bay, Bakool, M and L Shabelle, Awdal, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Galgadud, Juba and Gedo Regions 12 Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation From Long Term Average 13 Figure 3: Deyr ’07/08 Cereal Production Trends (1995 - 2007) in Southern Somalia 16 Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia 16 Figure 5: Sorghum and Maize Production Gu/Karan ’07 Compared to Post War Average (1998-2006) in Somaliland 16 Figure 6: Regional Contribution Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Establishment Estimates by District/ Region in Somaliland 17 Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Sorghum production 17 Figure 8: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Maize production 17 Figure 9: Annual Cereal Production by Agricultural Season 18 Figure 10: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (SoSH/SlSH) 19 Figure 11: Hiran Region, Trends in Sorghum Prices 19 Figure 12: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labour 19 Figure 13: Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2004- 2007) 20 Figure 14: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle Prices (SoSH/SlSH) 24 Figure 15: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices (SoSH/SlSH) 24 Figure 16: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat 24 Figure 17: Berbera and Bossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) 25 Figure 18: Total Annual Livestock Exports compared to 5-year Average 25 Figure 19: Monthly Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD 27 Figure 20: Juba Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 27 Figure 21: Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 27 Figure 22: Sorghum Belt: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 27 Figure 23: Central: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate 27 Figure 24: Deyr Maize and Sorghum Production in Gedo (1995 – 2007) 34 Figure 25: Gedo, Bardera, Local Goat Price Trends 34 Figure 26: Gedo, Bardera, Sorghum Price Trends 34 Figure 27: Trends in levels of Acute malnutrition 1995-2007 Gedo Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 35 Figure 28: Trends in Health Facilities, Aug-Oct 2007 (HIS), Gedo 36 Figure 29: Deyr Cereal Production in Lower Juba Region (1995-2007) 39 Figure 30: Deyr Cereal Production Middle Juba Region (1995-2007) 39 Figure 31: Juba Region Local Quality Cattle Prices Trends (SoSh) 40 Figure 32: Juba Region Maize Prices Trends (SoSh) 40 Figure 33: Juba Region Average Monthly Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat and Labour 40 Figure 34: Trends and Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001 to 2007, Middle and Lower Juba Nutrition Surveys, (<-2 Z scores WHZ and/ or oedema) 41

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 vi Issued March 7, 2008 Figure 35: Trends in Levels of Acutely Malnourished Children in Sentinel Sites by Livelihood Zone Lower Juba, Jan ’06 - Sept ’07 42 Figure 36: Trends in Levels in Acute Malnutrition in Health facilities, Aug-Oct 2007 (HIS) Juba Region Livelihood Zones 42 Figure 37: Trends in Deyr Cereal Production in Bakool (1995-2007) 46 Figure 38: Trends in Deyr Cereal Production in Bay (1995-2007) 46 Figure 39: Bay, Trends in Sorghum Prices 47 Figure 40: Bakool Hudur, Terms of Trade Local Goat to Cereal 47 Figure 41: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2007 in Bay Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 48 Figure 42: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2007 in Bakool Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 48 Figure 43: Deyr Cereal Production Lower Shabelle Region (1995 - 2007) 53 Figure 44: Deyr Cereal Production Middle Shabelle Region (1995 - 2007) 53 Figure 45: Shabelle Region, Maize Price Trends (SoSh) 54 Figure 46: Shabelle Region, Sorghum Price Trends (SoSh) 54 Figure 47: Shabelle Region, Terms of Trade Cereal to Labour 54 Figure 48: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2007 in Shabelle Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 55 Figure 49: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2000-2007 in Hiran Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 58 Figure 50: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2000-2007 in Hiran Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 60 Figure 51: Central Region Terms of Trade Goat and Labour to Cereal 63 Figure 52: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2000-2007 in Central Regions (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 64 Figure 53: Northeast Region, Rice Price Trends (SoSh) 65 Figure 54: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2002-2007 in Northeast Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 67 Figure 55: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2007 IDPs in Northest Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 67 Figure 56: Proportion of children <5 years with MUAC<12cm in Northeast Region Livelihood Zones December 2007 67 Figure 57: Northwest Region Terms of Trade Imported Rice to Export Quality Goat (2002-2007) 70 Figure 58: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2002-2006 in Northwest Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 70 Figure 59: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2002-2007 IDPs in Northwest Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) 70 Figure 60: Proportion of children <5 years with MUAC<12cm in Northwest Region Livelihood Zones December 2007 70

SPECIAL ARTICLES

IDP Analysis and Impact 14 Early Warning: Potential Locusts Damage to Crop and Pasture during the Gu ‘08 Season 21 Somali Knowledge Attitude Practices Study Summary Findings 30 The Plight of Disabled People inside Somalia 56 Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS): Pilot Study in Hargeisa IDPs 72

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ARI Acute Respiratory Infection Mt Metric Tonne CPP Caprine Pleura Pneumonia MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference CMR Crude Mortality Rate NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Index FEWS/NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network PWA Post War Average FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition GAM Global Acute Malnutrition SlSh Somaliland Shilling HA Hectare SoSh Somali Shilling HRG Humanitarian Response Group TFC Thearupetic Feeding Center IDP Internally Displaced Persons U5 Under Five IDS Institute for Development Studies WFH Weight for Height Lt Litre HE Humanitarian Emergency LZ Livelihood Zone AFLC Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis MCH Maternal and Child Health Center

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 vii Issued March 7, 2008 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 viii Issued March 7, 2008 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This technical series provides the full analysis of the FSAU Post Deyr ‘07/08 Assessment and Analysis, which are the results of ﬁeldwork (December 17-31), regional and national analysis workshops (January 1 - 19) and a Technical Veriﬁca- tion and Partner Vetting Meeting (January 28). FEWS NET Somalia along with 42 partners, including regional authorities, UN and international agencies, and local and international NGOs, participated and supported in this post Deyr assessment and analysis process.

FSAU issued a press release on January 31, a Special Brief on February 8 and presented these results in Nairobi at a Somalia Support Sectretariat Special Meeting on January 31. Somalia regional presentations are planned for Garowe (February 10), Gedo (February 7), Hargeisa (February 10), Baidoa (February 10), Belet Weyn (February 21) and Buale (February 17). The press release and presentation, in addition to the Phase Classiﬁcation Map, estimated population numbers by region, district and livelihood zone, are available on the FSAU website: (www.fsausomali.org).

1.1 KEY FINDINGS Based on the post Deyr ’07/08 seasonal assessment, the Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FAO/FSAU) and FEWS NET post Deyr ’07/08 confirm that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance and livelihood support for at least the next six months have increased from 1.5 million in last June to about 2 million, including roughly 1 million IDPs (Table 1). The current crisis confirms FSAU/FEWSNET early warnings issued in December (FSAU FSNB, Dec. 21, 2007) of a deteriorating food security and nutrition situation following two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall that has lead to crop failures, poor pasture, and browse conditions, and water shortages. The findings of the analysis, however, does not take in to account a sizable number of urban poor who are also equally affected by the prevailing shocks, including the record high food prices, ongoing conflict, disruptions in trade and economic activities, and hyper-inflation of essential commodities. executive summary

The humanitarian situation has deteriorated over the last six months in the Shabelle, Hiran and Central regions due to a signiﬁcant increase in the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) ﬂeeing Mogadishu and a deepening drought in Hiran and Central regions. However, the food security and nutrition situation has improved for the rural populations of southern regions of Juba and Gedo, regions previously devastated by the regional drought in 2005/06.

Even though there are large numbers of the rural population identiﬁed in either Humanitarian Emergency (HE) or Acute Food Security and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), this only represents 11% of the total population of Somalia or 18% of the rural population. The vast majority of the rural population in Somalia is in the IPC phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI). Populations in GFI are susceptible to shocks, especially in the south, and are in areas with sustained Serious and Critical nutritional levels. They are faced with poor and deteriorating productive infrastructure, including roads and irrigations systems, as well as lacking in social services such as health care facilities, education and safe water.

Due to these structural underlying causes, these populations are borderline food insecure and a slight deterioration could result in a reclassiﬁcation into AFLC or HE.

The three key deﬁning elements of the current crisis:

Humanitarian Crisis in the Shabelle Regions: The Shabelle regions remain the worst affected in the current humanitarian crisis. Most, or 74%, of those identified in Humanitarian Emergency and 22% identified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis are in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. These regions are also hosting the largest concentration of new IDPs from Mogadishu totaling more than 367,000 people. Although there will be a temporary relief for some communities due to good rainfed cereal crop production, overall the total Deyr ’07/08 season cereal production of the two regions is significantly below normal with a third consecutive season of poor maize production (39% of Post War Average). The nutrition situation is also still critical with rates of global acute malnutrition above emergency thresholds. Continuing insecurity and inflation over the next few months can only lead to further deteriorations in the crisis.

Swelling number of IDPs. One year ago the number of protracted Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) was estimated at 400,000 people, but today are more than 1 million people. The situation of the new IDPs continues to deteriorate, as the number of people ﬂeeing Mogadishu has more than doubled from 325,000 in August 2007, to more than 700,000 in the last six months. In addition to insecurity, the displaced populations have limited social support from host communities, limited options to earn income, and face record high food and non-food prices. Over 80 percent of the newly displaced people have concentrated in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran and Central regions that already face problems of food access, collapsing livelihoods, and emergency nutrition levels. Recent nutrition surveys, also conﬁrm that the nutrition situation of the protracted Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who have been displaced for years, is at or greater than internationally acceptable emergency thresholds and require urgent assistance.

Deepening Drought in Hiran and Central Regions: An estimated 135,000 pastoralists and 90,000 agriculturalists and agro-pastoralists in Hiran and Central regions face a rapidly deteriorating situation and are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance or livelihood support. Due to insecurity, pastoralists in Galgadud and south Mudug have limited

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 1 Issued March 7, 2008 options for migration and are continuing to purchase expensive trucked water (over 200% of normal) for their livestock since June last year. Given most of the underground water reservoirs are dry, water trucking is expected to continue till the onset of the Gu rains in mid-April. If these rains fail, this region will be facing a full scale drought, the worst seen in recent history. Furthermore, food access is severely constrained due to record high cereal and other essential commodity prices, which are expected to continue to increase over the next six months. In addition, as livestock prices continue to decline with deteriorating livestock body conditions and productivity, the purchasing power of pastoralists will continue to fall. The coping capacity of pastoral households, are also overstretched, as these areas are also hosting the second highest concentrations of new IDPs from Mogadishu (32% of the total or 224,000 people).

1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTION

Urgent Need For Integrated Humanitarian and Livelihood Response in the Shabelle Regions Given the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis in Mogadishu and Lower and Middle Shabelle, coupled with the crisis among the rural population and new IDPs, there is a need for urgent multi-sectoral interventions focused on immediate needs, including food, clean water, health services, and sanitation. Equally important are activities to support livelihoods and protect assets, including works programs to rehabilitate irrigation infrastructure before the next Gu rains in mid-April. Moreover, there is a need for increased advocacy to stop conﬂict, civil insecurity and political instability. Increased advocacy is needed to allow greater humanitarian access, encourage the resumption of economic activities, halt the further population displacement, and prevent a further slide into an even greater humanitarian crisis of increased magnitude and scale.

Urgent Livelihood Support to Drought Affected Communities in Hiran and Central Regions Immediate actions are needed to protect against the complete loss of livelihood assets, including livestock holdings,

to ensure future recovery. Interventions are also needed to support livelihoods to either halt the stripping of, or help the recovery of livelihood assets, e.g. strategic sector interventions such as the repair or maintenance of boreholes and berkads, improved access to health services, clean water, increase access to credit or debt repayment.

Other Regions Requiring Humanitarian Assistance - Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool Regions) For populations facing conditions of Humanitarian Emergency (HE) in Gedo, Lower Juba, and Bakool regions, urgent complementary interventions are needed focusing on immediate needs. These regions also have populations in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), along with Middle Juba and Bay, which require immediate interventions to support livelihoods to either halt the stripping of, or help the recovery of livelihood assets.

The rest of the Country Are Generally Food Insecure Although immediate humanitarian and livelihood support is not required, these areas require urgent strategic interventions to improve their resilience to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future shocks. Interventions are also needed to

executive summary readdress structural hindrances to achieving adequate food, nutrition and livelihood security, and address the underlying causes of chronically high malnutrition levels, e.g. dietary diversity, access to health care, clean water, and improve caring practices.

Table 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr '07/08 Population Numbers, Jan. - June 2008 Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Acute Food and Total in AFLC or Affected Regions Humanitarian Population1 Livelihood Crisis HE as % of Region Emergency (HE) (AFLC) population North 2,341,718 0 0 0 Central Galgaduud 330,057 80,000 15,000 29 Mudug 350,099 35,000 5,000 11 Sub-Total (Central) 680,156 115,000 20,000 20 South Bakool 310,627 90,000 5,000 31 Bay 620,562 25,000 0 4 Gedo 328,378 35,000 10,000 14 Hiraan 329,811 65,000 25,000 27 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 20,000 0 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 60,000 15,000 19 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 40,000 85,000 24 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 85,000 155,000 28 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 420,000 295,000 20 Banadir 901,183 ... GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 535,000 315,000 11

Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 850,000 11 Estimated number of new IDPs updated Jan 08 705,000 9 Estimated number of old IDPs 275,000 4 Estimated total population in crisis 1,830,000 24 See Appendix 5.4.1 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 2 Issued March 7, 2008 Map 1: Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January through June 2008

Defining Attributes of Crisis Areas in Phase41°0'0"E 3, 4 or 5 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 50°0'0"E Population in Phase (Includes High Risk) 0-100,000 101,000-500,000

12°0'0"N >500,000 Calula 12°0'0"N

Magnitude -100% BOSSASO Percent population Gulf of Aden )!. in respective phase Qandala Depth Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso -0% Lughaye ERIGABO Criteria for Social Targeting !. i Livelihood system AWDAL Who Iskushuban ii Wealth group Baki ) Borama Berbera iii Gender SANAG BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI Key Immediate Causes !. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo a Drought Gebiley b Floods HARGEYSA BURAO )!. )!. c Tsunami ) Qardho Hargeysa Bandar Beyla d Civil Insecurity Owdweyne Caynabo Xudun e Market Disruptions Talex Why f Disease Outbreaks TOGDHEER g Population Influx Burco SOOL 9°0'0"N 9°0'0"N Key Underlying Causes Laas Caanood Garowe A Post State Conflict Buuhoodle !.LAS ANOD !.GAROWE B Environmental Degradation C Social Marginalization ETHIOPIA Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs Eyl NUGAL Crisis IDP Areas Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Burtinle Frequency

Confidence Level of Analysis -100% ii, iii 70,000 * Low * * Medium High Galkacyo Jariiban d,e,f,g * * * i, ii, iii Goldogob) Confidence a, d, e, g GALKAYO A (!!. executive summary * * A, B -100% 120,000 Moderate (! i, ii, iii * * * -0% (! Cadaado MUDUG a, d, e Hobyo -100% Cabudwaaq 6°0'0"N A 6°0'0"N DUSAMAREB 45,000 Moderate (!!. i, ii, iii Dhusa Mareeb Indian Ocean * * * -0% ) (! a, b, d, e ) A, B, C GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Harardheere -100% High Ceel Barde Beled(!!. Weyne (! (! 155,000 Ceel Bur * * -0% BAKOOL i, ii, iii Rab- Xudur a, d, e, g Dhuure (! )!.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere A, B Dolo Luuq High )(! Wajid Bulo )(!Barde (! wa -0% (!)a Aden Yabal * * *

GARBAHAREY Baydhaba Tayeglow !. Jalalaqsi)(! led H BAIDOA Cadale Garbaharey Current or Imminent Phase Be )!. (! ! Qansax) Jowhar)( M. SHABELLE 1A Generally Food Secure )(! Wanle Weyne !. 3°0'0"N (! Dheere JOWHAR) 3°0'0"N GEDO BAY (! 1B Generally Food Secure Ceel Waq ) Bur Hakaba (!)Balcad(! 2 Generally Food Insecure Dinsor Afgoye)(! BANADIR Baardheere (! ) 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Qoryoley 4 Humanitarian Emergency Sakow )(! Kurtun Warrey Marka)!. ) ) 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe M. JUBA BU'AALESablale )!. L.) SHABELLE Risk of Worsening Phase Bu'aale Brava(!) -100% Watch .Coloured diagonal lines indicate

KENYA 365,000 shift in Phase (! Moderate Risk L. JUBA i, ii, iii .Black lines indicate worsening Jilib Afmadow ) a, b, d, g, e High Risk magnitude only A Projected Trend Jamaame Low Improving Situation Worsening Situation * * * -0% 0°0'0" KISMAAYO No Change Mixed Situation 0°0'0" Kismayo )!. Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs -100% 95,000 Areas of Old IDP Concentrations prior to Badhadhe January, 2008 i, ii, iii a, b, d, e, g Areas of New IDP Concentrations in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and Humanitarian A, B, C Emergency as of January 2008 High ± NOTES: 015 306090120150 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are * * * -0% rounded to the nearest 10,000 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org 41°0'0"E 44°0'0"E Kilometers 47°0'0"E 50°0'0"E Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, Updated: Nov, 2007

Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsausomali.org

P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-3745734 fax:254-20-3740598 FSAU is managed by FAO, funded by EC, the Government of Norway and USAID. FSAU Partners are FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, UNOCHA,SCF-UK, UNICEF, CARE, UNDP, SIDA The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 3 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 2: Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation Reference Table (FAO/FSAU Dec. 2007) Key Reference Outcomes Strategic Response Framework Phase Current or imminent outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Based on Objectives: Classification convergence of direct and indirect evidence rather than absolute (1) mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) support thresholds. Not all indicators must be present. livelihoods, and (3) address underlying causes Crude Mortality Rate < 0.5 / 10,000 / day 1A Generally Food Acute Malnutrition <3 % (w/h <-2 z-scores) Strategic assistance to pockets of food insecure groups Stunting <20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) Investment in food and economic production systems Secure Food Access/ Availability usually adequate (> 2,100 kcal ppp day), stable Enable development of livelihood systems based on principles Dietary Diversity consistent quality and quantity of diversity of sustainability, justice, and equity Water Access/Avail. usually adequate (> 15 litres ppp day), stable Prevent emergence of structural hindrances to food security 1B Generally Food Hazards moderate to low probability and vulnerability Advocacy Secure Civil Security prevailing and structural peace Livelihood Assets generally sustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Crude Mortality Rate <0.5/10,000/day; U5MR<1/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >3% but <10 % (w/h <-2 z-score), usual range, stable Design & implement strategies to increase stability, resistance Stunting >20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) and resilience of livelihood systems, thus reducing risk Food Access/ Availability borderline adequate (2,100 kcal ppp day); unstable Provision of ‘safety nets’ to high risk groups Generally Dietary Diversity chronic dietary diversity deficit Interventions for optimal and sustainable use of livelihood assets 2 Water Access/Avail. borderline adequate (15 litres ppp day); unstable Create contingency plan Food Insecure Hazards recurrent, with high livelihood vulnerability Redress structural hindrances to food security Civil Security Unstable; disruptive tension Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘insurance strategies’ Advocacy Livelihood Assets stressed and unsustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Structural Pronounced underlying hindrances to food security Crude Mortality Rate 0.5-1 /10,000/day, U5MR 1-2/10,000/dy Support livelihoods and protect vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition 10-15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Strategic and complimentary interventions to immediately food Disease epidemic; increasing access/availability AND support livelihoods Food Access/ Availability lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., Acute Food Dietary Diversity acute dietary diversity deficit water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 3 and Livelihood Water Access/Avail. 7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping Strategic interventions at community to national levels to create, Crisis Destitution/Displacement emerging; diffuse stabilize, rehabilitate, or protect priority livelihood assets Civil Security limited spread, low intensity conflict Create or implement contingency plan Coping ‘crisis strategies’; CSI > than reference; increasing Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Advocacy 1-2 / 10,000 / day, >2x reference rate, increasing; Crude Mortality Rate U5MR > 2/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Urgent protection of vulnerable groups Disease Pandemic Urgently food access through complimentary interventions Food Access/ Availability severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Humanitarian Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., 4 Dietary Diversity Regularly 3 or fewer main food groups consumed water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) Emergency Water Access/Avail. < 7.5 litres ppp day (human usage only) Protection against complete livelihood asset loss and/or executive summary Destitution/Displacement concentrated; increasing advocacy for access Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘distress strategies’; CSI significantly > than reference Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Advocacy

Crude Mortality Rate > 2/10,000 /day (example: 6,000 /1,000,000 /30 days) Critically urgent protection of human lives and vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition > 30 % (w/h <-2 z-score) Comprehensive assistance with basic needs (e.g. food, water, Famine / Disease Pandemic shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 5 Humanitarian Food Access/ Availability extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day Immediate policy/legal revisions where necessary Catastrophe Water Access/Avail. < 4 litres ppp day (human usage only) Negotiations with varied political-economic interests Destitution/Displacement large scale, concentrated Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Advocacy Livelihood Assets effectively complete loss; collapse

Risk of Probability / General Description and Worsening Severity Implications for Action Likelihood Changes in Process Indicators Phase Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Watch As yet unclear Not applicable with low or uncertain Vulnerability and Capacity Close monitoring and analysis Process Indicators: small negative changes Review current Phase interventions Occurrence of, or predicted Hazard event stressing livelihoods; Close monitoring and analysis Elevated probability / Specified by Moderate Risk with moderate Vulnerability and Capacity Contingency planning likelihood predicted Phase, and indicated by Process Indicators: large negative changes Step-up current Phase interventions Occurrence of, or strongly predicted major Hazard event Preventative interventions--with increased High probability; ‘more color of diagonal stressing livelihoods; with high Vulnerability and low Capacity urgency for High Risk populations High Risk likely than not’ lines on map. Process Indicators: large and compounding negative changes Advocacy

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 4 Issued March 7, 2008 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS

CLIMATE In most regions in the south, the Deyr ’07/08 rains started on time. Gedo, Juba and parts of Shabelle regions, for example, received good rains during the second dekad of October indicating a timely onset of the rainy season. However, the overall rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage and distribution over time and space is mixed. In the south, good to above normal rains were received in inland parts of the Juba regions as well as southern Gedo and Bay. However, key agricultural areas in Lower Juba, eastern Shabelle regions, Hiran and southern Bakool receieved below normal rains. Pockets of the northeast and northwest also received below normal rains. Of particular concern are livestock dependant areas in Hiran and Central regions (parts of Galdagud and Mudug) where Deyr rains were below normal for the second consecutive season both in amount as well as geographic and temporal distribution.

CIVIL INSECURITY Over the last two months, insecurity, conflict, and tensions have continued, and in some areas increased in the south and central regions. In particular, field reports indicate that there are numerous road blocks, incidents of banditry, along with heightened political tension, especially in the Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran and Central regions. Transportation and movement between and within the most affected regions continues to be costly, difficult, and dangerous, and is leading to further increases in traded food and non-food commodity prices. Unofficial roadblocks are making movement more difficult, dangerous, and costly for both local populations, and agencies attempting to respond with assistance.

In the last six months, the number of people ﬂeeing Mogadishu has more than doubled, from 325,000 in August ’07 to more than 700,000, an increase of 116%. Most, or 82%, of these newly displaced people are heavily concentrated in the same regions that already face the worst problems in the country in terms food access, collapsing livelihoods, and emergency nutrition levels, including Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran, and Central regions which are in AFLC or HE. executive summary In addition to limited social support from host communities, displaced populations have limited options to earn income and face record high food and non-food prices.

AGRICULTURE The Deyr ’07/08 cereal production in southern Somalia is estimated at 94,480 MT, of which 77% is sorghum and 23% maize. This is 86%, 96% and 85% of the 5-year Deyr average (’02-06), Deyr PWA (’95-06) and Deyr ’06/07, respectively. While the overall cereal production is only 14% below the 5-year average, there is considerable variation between regions. For example, Deyr ’07/08 cereal production in Hiran region is 33% and in Gedo and Middle Juba regions is over 200% compared to the 5-year average. More than 40% of cereal production is from Bay region (due to the average and above average rainfall), followed by 20% from Lower Shabelle region, and 16% from Gedo region. Deyr cereal production from the Shabelle regions normally contributes 50% of the Southern Somalia production, however, this years production accounts for only 27% of the Post War Average. The poor performance from the Shabelle regions is due to a combination

of poor irrigation infrastructure, costly farm inputs, limited tractor availability, insecurity, and the poor performance of rainfall.

Maize and sorghum prices show an upward trend in all markets of southern Somalia and have increased by 120% - 210% since Jan. ’07. In the Shabelle regions, maize prices are 92% higher than the 5- year average due to a combination of low cereal production and supply, and increased demand for cheaper locally produced cereals following hyper-inﬂation in imported food prices.

LIVESTOCK Rangeland conditions in most pastoral areas are good to average, with the exception of the drought affected areas of Cen- tral regions (Galgadud and southern Mudug) and Hiran where pasture and water conditions are continuing deterioration. Acute water shortages and poor pasture will be continuing problems in these areas during the long dry Jilaal season (Jan. - March) in these areas. In Galgaduud, south Mudug and Hiraan regions, poor rainfall in both the Gu ’07 and Deyr ’07/08 has resulted in continuous water trucking in some areas as early as June ’07, and will increasingly be required until the onset of the Gu rains (until mid-April ’08).

The FSAU Deyr ’07/08, pastoral herd dynamics model indicates an increasing trend in herd sizes compared to the start of Gu ’07 (April ’07) in most areas. In contrast, in the Central regions herd levels have decreased over the last six months due to additional off-take to cover water trucking costs and increased food prices. Prices of all livestock species have increased compared to the 5-year average, however, there is a slight decline in the local quality goat prices in central regions and in all livestock prices in the northwest regions following the Hajj period and the reduced demand from external markets. Livestock exports during 2007 through Berbera and Bossaso ports reached 3,273,418 heads of which 93% was sheep and goats. This is 33% higher compared to the ’02-06 average and the highest since 1997.

MARKETS The Mogadishu conﬂict is limiting trade and economic activities in most southern and central markets and is particularly

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 5 Issued March 7, 2008 affecting the Mogadishu main (Bakaara) market and the seaport where traders are reporting a slowdown of activities over the past year. Imported food commodities, such as rice, sugar, vegetable oil, and wheat ﬂour are in short supply and are at all time high prices. In the Shabelle and Central regions, rice increased by 20% and 49%, respectively between July ’07 and Dec. ’07 and 118% and 158%, respectively, when compared to the 5-year average. The limited availability, the sharp devaluation of the Somali Shilling is also affecting imported commodity prices. In the Bakaara market, the Somali Shilling lost value in the last year by 59% from Sosh 13,850 in Dec. ’06 to 22,000 per US dollar in Dec. í07 (Ref. FSAU Market data Update, Jan. ‘08). However, when compared to the 5-year Dec. average, the shilling lost 33% during the same period. NUTRITION The Post Deyr’07/08 nutrition situation indicates varied phases across the country based on integrated analysis of information collected from July – December 2007. In the north, the situation is Alert and stable, apart from the protracted IDPs in northwest and Bossasso town who are faced with Serious to Very Critical situations respectively.

In South Central Somalia, the nutrition situation ranges from Serious to Critical: in Hiran Agropastoral and Shabelle Riv- erine livelihood zones, there has been an improvement from a Critical in the Gu’07 to Serious situation in the Deyr’07/08. However Juba agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, Wajid and Huddur districts continue to experience sustained Serious levels since the Gu’07, with the situation remaining Critical in other parts of Middle and Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions. In most parts of central regions, the nutrition situation has deteriorated since the Gu’07 from Serious to Critical. Dusamareb, Cowpea and Coastal Deeh livelihood zone are faced with a sustained Serious situation. The worrisome nutrition situation in the Central, Shabelle and Hiran population groups is as a result of cumulative shocks including civil insecurity in Mogadishu that has led to loss of livelihoods and massive displacement of people into these areas thereby exerting pressure on the limited resources (water, health care) and humanitarian assistance.

1.4 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

NORTHWEST All pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in northwest regions remain in the same phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI) identified during the post Deyr `07 assessment. Localized areas in Hawd of Togdheer, Nugal Valley, and Sool plateau of Sanag and Sool regions are identified with Watch, due to the below normal rains in Oct. – Dec.’07 (20-40% RFE), and the anticipated pasture and water shortages in the upcoming Jilaal season (Jan - June ’08). Livestock body conditions are good to average in all regions. Camel calving rates are high with normal daily milk yield, and this improved milk availability and accessibility in all livelihood zones benefits households in terms of consumption and camel milk sales. The total number of livestock exports in 2007 through Berbera port was 1,633,794 heads, which is 31% higher than in 2006 (1,125,683 heads).

NORTHEAST executive summary Pastoral areas in the northeast regions remain in the phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI). The situation in the Adduun and coastal Deeh LZs in Eyl, Jarriban, and Galkayo districts that were previously identiﬁed as Moderate Risk to deterioration has improved as a result of receiving good rainfall. Most of the Berkads and shallow wells in the Addun Coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zones have been replenished and pasture and grazing conditions have regenerated. Most pastoralists have returned to their livelihood zones where they will have access to abundant pasture. Livestock body conditions are average throughout the northeast regions. Camel milk production is good to average as a result of high calving rates in the Deyr `07/08. Overall, livestock prices have improved. Export quality goat prices in the northeast in Dec. ’07 are 24% and 55% higher compared to Dec. ’06 and 5-year average for Dec. (‘02 -06). The price of rice in the northeast is at an all time high due to the devaluation in the Somali Shilling. Bossaso livestock exports improved signiﬁcantly following the livestock ban in Dec ’06. However, livestock exported during 2007 is still 14% below 2006 exports.

CENTRAL REGIONS The food security situation of Hawd/Addun pastoral and agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones of Central regions (Galgadud and south Mudug) have deteriorated further since last Gu’07 from Generally Food Insecure (GFI) to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) with high risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE). The early warning level of ‘Moderate risk’ in Gu’07 has changed to ‘high risk’ for the entire Central region during the period of Jan. to June ‘08. Indicators to monitor during this time are food prices (staple/non staple), terms of trade, water trucking prices, the effects of the IDPs on host rural communities, and increased risk to resource based conﬂicts (around access to water and pasture).

The region is currently facing the impact of multiple shocks, including successive seasons of below normal rains. This has resulted in extended water trucking and associated increased water trucking costs. In addition there is a deterioration in rangeland resources (water and pasture) resulting in poor livestock body condition. There is also high and rapid inﬂation of food and non-food commodity prices, as well as disrupted economic activities and trade. The Central region is hosting one of the largest numbers of IDPs from Mogadishu, many of whom face recurrent civil insecurity and conﬂict as well as increased acute and severe malnutrition.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 6 Issued March 7, 2008 HIRAN The humanitarian situation of agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods has continued to deteriorate since Jan. ’07 respectively. Agro-pastoralists previously classified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) during the Gu ‘07 continue to be in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), but with an increased number, including 100% of the poor (47,000 people), who are affected. This deterioration is due to the complete failure of Deyr ’07/08 rain fed crops and declining purchasing power due to increasing cereal prices. The situation in the riverine areas of Hiran region have deteriorated significantly since last Gu ‘07 and while the phase classification remains the same, Humanitarian Emergency (HE), the number of people in this phase has increased. The food security situation of Addun/Hawd pastoral in Hiran region is similar to central region and has deteriorated from the previous phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI) to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), with high risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE). This is a result of poor Deyr ’07/08 rains that resulted in early water trucking from Nov. ’07, increased prices, deterioration in rangeland resources, poor livestock body conditions and a reduction of marketable animals to meet water and food requirements. Resource based conflict, limited out-migration due to insecurity; projected asset depletion and critical nutritional status are additional indicators supporting the early warning level of High Risk of Humanitarian Emergency

SHABELLE The food security and situation of the two main riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods in Shabelle regions continue to be in a state of Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). In addition, there are early warning levels of Watch in the riverine and Moderate Risk in agro-pastoral areas with the likelihood of further deterioration over the next 6 months. The civil insecurity in Mogadishu and the Shabelle region and the continuing inﬂux of IDPs are compounding factors to the humanitarian situation of the region. IDP numbers in the region have increased 250%, from 85,200 in Aug. ’07 to 298,900 people in Jan. ’08, with 80% of the total in Lower Shabelle. Below average Deyr ’07 rains in most parts of Shabelle has resulted in another season of below average crop production. The production of cereal during Deyr ‘07/08 has been one of the lowest on record in a decade and follows 4 to 5 seasons of below average production. Poor and ineffective irrigation infrastructure, such as canals, culverts, barrages, and limited inputs resulting from the high inﬂation, high input costs and the insecurity are among the key factors contributing to the low production. executive summary

BAY AND BAKOOL The overall food security situation in Bakool region is deteriorating. Although the Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production for the region is 165% of PWA and 114% of 5-year average (’02 – 06), poor rainfall and associated crop failure was recorded in parts of Rabdure, Elberde, northern Wajid and southern parts of Tieglow and Huddur districts. Water, pasture and browse conditions deteriorated resulting in low milk production and livestock migration towards Bay region and across the border to Somali State of Ethiopia. Zakat from cereal production has declined in due to crop failure in the affected areas. Poor agro-pastoral households have low purchasing power due to poor cereal production, limited access to job opportunities, low milk production for sale and increasing local cereal and imported prices. As a result, poor households have to sell more livestock as a coping mechanism, which will lead to a reduction of herd sizes. In contrast in Bay region, the overall food security condition of pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods is normal in the region due to good rainfall. Exceptions are the agro-pastoral of Berdale and Mowlimaad of Baidoa district bordering with Wajid and Hudur districts. These districts experienced two consecutive crop failures due to very poor seasonal rains. Overall cereal production in Bay is 129% of PWA and 105% of 5-year average, and there is good availability of water, pasture and the overall livestock condition and production is good.

GEDO REGION The overall food and livelihood security situation of Gedo region for pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods indicate a significant improvement between July and Dec. ‘07 and recovery from the effects of the 2005/06 drought. In Gedo region, 43,000 people from all livelihood zones were identified in Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and are in need of humanitarian assistance and livelihood response. The nutrition situation across all major livelihoods in Gedo is Critical, but stable nutrition situation across all major livelihoods in Gedo region. These results are in line with the historical nutrition trends for Gedo, which highlights sustained critical levels over the past 10 years. Currently, no nutrition early warning levels are identified in Gedo, indicating a significant improvement from the worrying situation in the last drought of ‘06.

LOWER AND MIDDLE JUBA In the Juba regions, three consecutive seasons of normal rains since Deyr ’06/07 led to improved crop and rangeland conditions. As a result these regions have experienced a remarkable recovery in food, livelihood and nutrition security. In addition to the favorable climatic conditions, sustained humanitarian response and livelihood support over the last three seasons has enhanced the pace of asset recovery, especially herd size. However, the crop dependent districts of Jamame and Kismayo (Lower Juba), where Deyr ‘07/08 rains were well below average, face another season of crop failure. It is estimated that 15,000 people in riverine communities in these two districts are identiﬁed to be in Humanitarian Emer- gency (HE) situation and are in need of immediate life saving interventions. The nutrition situation in the riverine areas is Critical. Although the Global Acute Malnutrition rate declined from Critical to Serious levels in Deyr ‘07/08 from Gu ’07, Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) rates still remain above the emergency threshold of 4%. Of concern is the high proportion of kwashiorkor cases which contribute to the elevated SAM rates of over 60% of cases, which is unique to the riverine communities.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 7 Issued March 7, 2008 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS

This Technical Series Report provides the full technical findings of the Post Deyr ‘07/08 Analysis. This analysis focuses on the outcome of the Deyr seasonal rains (Oct. – Dec. ’07) and provides food security projections for the period January to June ‘08. The analysis updates the Post Gu 2007 Assessment Analysis (FSAU Technical Series, Report No. V.13, September 21, 2007). FSAU collaborated with 42 partners including local authorities in the field at different stages of the assessment, including planning, fieldwork, and analysis. Table 3 provides an overview of the analytical process and timeline. For a complete listing of partners and full timeline, including regional level meetings see Appendix 5.7 and 5.8.

Analytical Process and Timeline In Dec. ‘07, FSAU highlighted the poor rainfall, devaluation of the Somali Shilling and increasing prices, the increased population displacement due to tensions and conﬂict in Mogadishu, and a deteriorating nutritional situation (FSAU, Press Release, Dec. 21, 2007). These factors were taken into consideration during the preparation of the assessment and an IDP impact questionnaire was included in the ﬁeldwork and analysis.

A Post Deyr Assessment Technical Partner Planning meeting was held in Nairobi Nov. 2, 2007. It was decided that the Deyr fieldwork be carried out a month earlier to enable more FSAU analysts to participate in the south / central. This meeting had a combined agricultural and livestock sector focus with the aim of planning partner collaboration, as well as coordinating and planning fieldwork logistics and support. Seasonal survey instruments (see Appendix 5.9) were finalised and then sent to the field. Prior to the actual fieldwork, Regional Partner Planning Workshops, designed to train participants on field instruments and to plan field logistics, were held in Hargeisa, Garoowe (Nov. 5-6) and Belet Weyne, Marka, Luuq, Wajid, Jowhar, and Buale (Dec. 15-16). methods

Table 3: Overview of 2007/08 Post Deyr Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline Activity Date Description/Location

Finalisation of survey tools, team composi- FSAU Partner Planning Meeting November 2 tion and travel and logistical arrangements. Nairobi

NW Gu/ Karan Post Harvest Assessment Regional Planning meetings in Hargeisa and November 5 - 20 NW/NE Post Deyr ë07/08 Assessment Garowe, followed by ﬁeldwork

Regional Planning meetings in Buale, Luuq, Regional Planning Workshops - Central/ December 15 - 16 Wajid, Merka, Jowhar, Beletweyne South

Fieldwork December 17 - 31 Throughout all regions with partners analytical process and analytical process

Regional Analysis Meetings January 1 - 4 Hargeisa, Garowe, Wajid, Luuq All Team (FSAU Nairobi and FAs, and Part- All Team Analysis Workshop January 8 - 12 ners) in Hargeisa Finalization of Key Findings January 15 - 19 Hargeisa Nutrition - January 21 Vetting of results with Partners Nairobi IPC and Food Security - Jan. 28 Presentation to Special SSS FSRD Meeting, Release of Results January 31 Nairobi and posted on website and Press Release issued February 7 FSAU Special Brief, Post Deyr 2007/08 Analysis Regional Presentations in Gedo (Feb 7) Hargeisa (Feb 11), Garowe (Feb 11), Baidoa February 7 - 21 (Feb 10), Buale (Feb 17), Gedo (Feb 7), Be- letweyne ( Feb 21), FSAU website, email distribution, hardcopy Release of Technical Series Report March 7 mailing

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 8 Issued March 7, 2008 FSAU All Team Post Deyr ’07/08 Analysis Workshop, Hargeisa, analytical process and January 2007.

The teams then conducted ﬁeldwork in their Map 2: Somalia - Deyr ’07/08 Assessment Data Point Locations respective regions between Nov. 7 – 20 in the NE and NW and between December 17 -31 in the central /south. Fieldwork was carried out by 18 FSAU analysts, 2 FSAU consultants, 10 FSAU Nutrition analysts along with 70 partner participants including 20 from local authorities. The FSAU would like to extend special thanks to our partners

who participated and for their valuable methods technical contributions as well as logistical and other support during the planning, ﬁeldwork and analysis.

Fieldwork in some area was restricted due to insecurity and resulted in ﬁeld teams not being able to carry out assessments in parts of Lasanod, Buhodle, Taleh and Hudun in Sool region, and in Hobyo (Mudug) and Rabdhure, Bakool (Map 2). indicates the areas covered by ﬁeld teams during the assessment.

Fieldwork was followed by regional analysis workshops in Hargeisa, Garoowe, Wajid and Luuq. An FSAU All Team Analysis Workshop was held with FEWS NET and partners in Hargeisa from January 8 - 19. The draft analysis was then shared with major technical partners in a Technical Veriﬁcation and Partner Vetting Meetings in Nairobi on January 21 (Nutrition) and January 28 (IPC and Food Security).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 9 Issued March 7, 2008 To facilitate rapid uptake of assessment results, a presentation was made at a special meeting of the Somali Support Secretariat, FSRD on January 31. Regional presentations of the same overall ﬁndings were made by FSAU Field Analysts throughout Somalia, including Hargeisa, Garoowe, Belet Weyne, Dolo, Baidoa, and Buale.

On January 31, the FSAU and FEWS NET issued a press release and key ﬁndings were posted on the FSAU website and included the key results of the sector and integrated regional analysis, along with the revised Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation (IPC) Map and estimated population numbers by region, district and livelihood zone (valid January – June 2008). On February 8, FSAU issued a Special Brief summarizing the sector and integrated regional analysis. The full technical analysis from the Post Gu assessment and analysis are presented in this Technical Series Report.

Assessment Methods and Instruments Primary data collection methodologies included focus group discussions, key informant interviews, market price surveys, crop production surveys, livestock surveys, and food and livelihood security questionnaires (Appendix 5.9). Given the severity of the IDPs in south and central, UNHCR provided support to the technical assistance in the development and analysis of the IDP Impact Survey (Appendix 5.9.3) to provide estimates of displacement, how IDPs are accessing food and income as well as impacts on the host communities. The IDP Impact survey was conducted in Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran, Bay, Mudug, Galgadud and Sool.

In total, 624 crop production surveys including the northwest crop establishment survey, 197 pastoral questionnaires, 44 district conﬂict monitoring surveys, and 69 IDP impact forms were completed. These were supported and triangulated by a number of sources, including baseline analysis and livelihood proﬁles, USG/NVDI satellite imagery, and monthly main market and SLIMS (Somali Livelihood Information and Market) data, and FSAU and partner situation reports. methods

Nutritional data used during the analysis stage included recent livelihood based nutrition surveys (19 conducted from August to December 2007), rapid assessments using Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) (100 children per site), trends in levels of acutely malnourished children attending health facilities (110 health facilities reporting nationwide), and trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from livelihood based sentinel site data (132 sites in Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool, Hiran, Lower Shabelle, south Mudug, and Galgadud).

In addition, secondary data from partners’ selective feeding centres (supplementary and therapeutic care) was referred to and Acute Watery Diarrhoea statistics (AWD) were provided from the World Health organisation. In areas where recent nutrition survey data was not available, field based nutrition analysts joined the food security assessment teams (in the NE, Central, NW, and SE) and conducted rapid MUAC assessment and collected information on health, water, sanitation and care practices. This livelihood based nutrition analysis provided much greater integration of food, nutrition, and livelihood security than has been the case to date. analytical process and analytical process FSAU applied a livelihoods approach in analysis to clearly highlight the causes and outcomes of food and livelihood insecurity, and to facilitate multi-sector response planning and monitoring. IPC Evidence-based Templates were used to organize and consolidate all analytical field and secondary data, as well as to analyze comprehen- sively all evidence and arrive at an area, livelihood, and socio-economic specific Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 10 Issued March 7, 2008 3. SECTOR REPORTS

3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME Map 3: Cumulative RFE for 2007 Deyr season Map 4: RFE percent of normal for 2007 Deyr (Oct.- Dec.) Season (Oct. – Dec.) climate and rainfall

CLIMATE

The Deyr rains (Oct. – Dec.) are the secondary rainy rd

Map 5: NDVI anomaly December 3 dekad 2007 season in southern Somalia and contribute on average outcome 40 percent of the annual cereal production, while the Gu rains (April-June) are the main rainy season that contribute the remaining 60 percent. The performance of the Deyr season is also crucial for rangeland production as it is followed by the long dry season or Jilaal (Jan. to March).

In most regions in the south the Deyr ‘07/08 rains started on time. Gedo, Juba and parts of Shabelle regions, for example received good rains during the second dekad of October, indicating a timely onset of the rainy season. However, the overall rainfall performance in terms of the intensity, coverage and distribution over time and space is mixed (Map 3 and 4).

In the south, normal to above normal rains were received in inland parts of the Juba regions as well as southern Gedo, and Bay. Data from the rain gauge network in those regions also show that the performance of the rainy season was largely normal. Juba regions, for example, received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall for the period Oct. 1 to Dec. 30, while most of Bay, Gedo, and parts of Shabelle regions received 80 – 120 percent of normal. However, key agricultural areas in Lower Juba, eastern Shabelle regions, Hiran and southern Bakool received below normal rains. Pockets in the northeast Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET and northwest also received below normal rains.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 11 Issued March 7, 2008 Figure 1: Rainfall performance and NDVI for Bay, Bakool, M and L Shabelle, Awdal, Togdheer, Sanaag, Nugal, Galgadud, Juba and Gedo Regions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 12 Issued March 7, 2008 Of particular concern are livestock dependent areas in Map 6: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis Hiran and Central regions (parts of Galdagud and Mudug) where Deyr rains were below normal for two consecutive seasons both in amount as well as geographic and temporal distribution. With the exception of a few areas in Galgadud, most of the central rangelands, received between 0 to 50mm between October and December. Rains were also poor in the neighboring Somalia region of Ethiopia, thereby limiting pastoralist options for cross- border migration. Compared to the long term mean, most of these areas received less than 60 percent of the normal rains (Map 6).

Rains were insufﬁcient to replenish water sources, re- generate pasture, and for rainfed crop development. The localized nature of rainfall has also resulted in abnormal livestock migration, which is adding pressure to limited rangeland and water resources. Water availability is currently problematic and most of the underground water reservoirs (berkeds) are empty. There will be continued stress on rangeland resources during the Jilaal dry season climate and rainfall (Jan. – Mar.), with the next rains not expected until mid April ’08.

Other areas where Deyr rains performed poorly include pockets of pastoral areas of Hawd, Togdher, Sool plateau, Source: FSAU January, 2007 Nugaal Valley, and Addun livelihood zones. Northern parts of Bakool region and parts of Bay also received below normal rains. While satellite imagery show good rains in Jamamme and Kismayo, ground truthing indicates that rains were below normal and not sufﬁcient for crop development. Coastal areas of the Shabelle region received below normal rains leading to poor rangeland condition and poor crop production (see crop and livestock sections). Data from the rain gauge network in these regions also show that the performance of the rainy season was mixed.

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained through satellite imagery compared to a long term

mean, indicates significant variation in current vegetation levels for this time of year across Somalia, reflecting the outcome mixed seasonal performance (Map 5 and Figure 2). The exceptions are most of central regions and coastal areas of the Shabelle regions, northern Gedo and Bakool, and parts of Lower Juba where the NDVI indicator is low due to poor Deyr rainfall. Field reports support and confirm the satellite imagery data.

Figure 2: Historic NDVI % Deviation From Long Term Average

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 13 Issued March 7, 2008 NEW INTERNALLY DISPLACED POPULATIONS In the last six months, the number of people ﬂeeing Mogadishu has more than doubled, from 325,000 in August ‘07 to more than 700,000, an increase of 116%. Most, or 82%, of these newly displaced people are heavily concentrated in the same regions that already face the worst problems in the country in terms food access, collapsing livelihoods, and emergency nutrition levels, including Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran, and Central regions which are in AFLC or HE. In addition to limited social support from host communities, displaced populations have limited options to earn income and face record high food and non-food prices.

The recent displacements are contributing to further deteriorations in the humanitarian situation in many areas. The impacts will be felt particularly in areas of the highest IDP concentrations, such as in the Shabelle regions, which are hosting 52% of all new IDPs, and Hiran and the Central regions, which are hosting 32%. Most of the new IDPs, or 84%, are concentrated in regions where the host communities are already severely stressed and face conditions of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis or Humanitarian Emergency. People ﬂeeing the ﬁghting in Mogadishu are leaving behind their livelihoods and livelihood assets. The presence of IDPs is increasing pressure on host communities, placing additional burdens on water and health infrastructure, increasing the demand for rental properties, and increasing competition for available employment opportunities.

In addition of both IDPs and many host communities must also cope with record high food and non-food prices. Commercial import food prices, such as rice, wheat ﬂour, sugar, and vegetable oil, have increased signiﬁcantly and are at record high levels. In the districts where the FSAU/UNHCR IDP impact assessment was carried out, the price of the main cereal varies between 31% and 171% higher than the 5-year average while vegetable oil varies from 47% to 125% higher than the 5-year average.

The purchasing power of IDPs and some host communities is not only negatively impacted by record high prices, but through decreased income earning capacity as result of disruptions and a downturn in economic activities, such as employment and trade. Reduction of income earning capacity, increased competition of employment in host urban communities, and high rates of unemployment are reported. According to the FSAU/UNHCR impact assessment, 70-90% of new IDPs are unemployed, and more than 80% of the IDPs are not receiving remittances. The assessment also shows that the major source of food for most IDPs, is market purchase, and that more than 70% are have an income of less than SomSh 30,000 per day, making them highly vulnerable to market price increases. In addition, over 70% do not have access to clean safe water, and only 27% of the IDPs have access to latrines placing them at risk of disease and related health issues.

IDP impact IDP It is important to highlight that an estimated 275,000 protracted internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who have been internally displaced for years, also require urgent humanitarian assistance. These long-term protracted IDPs also face record high food and non-food prices, limited income earning options, and nutrition surveys conﬁrm their nutrition situation is at or greater than internationally acceptable emergency thresholds. For example, in Bossaso a nutrition assessment conducted in Dec. ’07, indicates a very critical situation with a GAM of 23.3% and SAM 4.9%.

Table 4: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage Estimated % of total Estimated # of IDPs % of Regional % of Regional Region population (estimated) IDPs to-date Total Population urban Population (UNDP 2005) by region Awdal 305,455 30 0 0.0 0.0 W/Galbeed 700,345 11,120 2 1.6 2.3 Togdheer 402,295 710 0 0.2 0.6 Sanaag 270,367 760 0 0.3 1.4 Sool 150,277 4,400 1 2.9 11.2 Bari 367,638 4,500 1 1.2 2.5 Mudug 350,099 56,050 8 16.0 59.4 Galgaduud 330,057 121,700 17 36.9 206.4 Hiraan 329,811 47,600 7 14.4 68.9 Bakool 310,627 2,160 0 0.7 3.5 Bay 620,562 40,150 6 6.5 31.7 Mid.Shabelle 514,901 58,930 8 11.4 61.5 Banadir 901,183 68,000 10 7.5 7.5 L.Shabelle 850,651 239,940 34 28.2 138.9 Gedo 328,378 28,900 4 8.8 35.5 Mid &Lower Juba 624,667 18,250 3 2.9 10.2 TOTAL 7,357,313 703,200 100.00 9.6

1 - Population Estimates:- UNDP Somalia 2005 2 - Number displaced and/or returned:- IASU Somalia Protection Cluster Estimated # of IDPs to-date (= Reported IDPs - Reported returnees ) is only for reporting purpose.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 14 Issued March 7, 2008 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY Over the last two months, insecurity, conflict, and tensions Map 7: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood have continued, and in some areas increased in the south Security (Nov. ’07 - Jan. ’08) and central regions. In particular, field reports indicate that there are numerous road blocks, incidents of banditry, along with heightened political tension, especially in the Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiran and Central regions. Transportation and movement between and within the most affected regions continues to be costly, difficult, and dangerous, and is leading to further increases in traded food and non-food commodity prices. Unofficial roadblocks are making movement more difficult, dangerous, and costly for both local populations, and agencies attempting to respond with assistance. Humanitarian access and the provision of humanitarian assistance to populations most in need, continues to be difficult and problematic.

Mogadishu remains violent, extremely tense, and volatile. Reports indicate that inhabitants who remain in the city are now living in a state of terror and are under constant threats of harassment. Many districts within the city are deserted leaving assets, household and business assets open for looting and destruction. The ongoing and increasing civil insecurity and tension will continue to limit

trade and economic activities, as well as restrict port and civil insecurity market movements in and out of the city, thus ensuring continued high prices of basic commodities and reduced income earning opportunities. Conflict has led to the loss of lives and injuries in Mogadishu, but also considerable displacement within and from the capital and significant asset loss through looting and shelling destruction. In Kis- mayo, an INGO vehicle was struck and destroyed by Remote Controlled Improvised Explosive Device (RCIED), believed to be a remote controlled mine. International and Somali nationals were killed in the blast. This type of attack and targeting humanitarian aid workers will further hamper the ability of UN and NGO agencies to operate and add uncertainty to an already stressful and insecure operating environment. The security situation remains tense and insecure in other areas of southern Somalia, with insecurity incidents reported in Wanle Weyen (Lower Shabelle), Belet Weyne (Hiran), Kismayo (Lower Juba), Jowhar (Mid- dle Shabelle), Cel-berde (Bakool), Adado (Galgadud) and Baidoa (Bay). Tensions are also increasing in Hiran and central regions. Lack of adequate rainfall in many parts of the central regions and increased competition for available pasture, and more specifically water, will continue to fuel increasing tensions until the next rains in April ’08. This will further increase the risk of resource based conflicts and limit mobility within the area, both for vehicles and livestock. In Sool region, it is reported that approximately 60-70% of the inhabitants of Las Anod town (UNDP 2005: population 24,000) fled in mid-September following political unrest, which reportedly killed 30-40 persons. Most of the displacement is to nearby settlements and villages, where they have joined relatives and friends. The main regions at risk to continuing or increased insecurity over the next six months are Bay, parts of Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud, and South Mudug (Map 7). The anticipated indirect impacts of continuing or increased insecurity include, disruption of trade (local cereals and other commodities) within the country and across regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia), continuing market price inflation, restriction of livestock migration in Central and Hiran regions, continuation of localized short-term displacement and further restrictions of humanitarian space. Continuing insecurity in Kenya, is also affecting IDP population movements across the border. The purchasing power of IDPs and some host communities is not only negatively impacted by record high prices, but through decreased income earning capacity as result of disruptions and a downturn in economic activities, such as employment and trade. Reduction of income earning capacity, increased competition of employment in host urban communities, and high rates of unemployment are reported. According to the FSAU/UNHCR impact assessment, 70-90% of new IDPs are unemployed, and more than 80% of the IDPs are not receiving remittances. It is important to highlight that an estimated 275,000 protracted internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), who have been internally displaced for years, also require urgent humanitarian assistance. These long-term protracted IDPs also face record high food and non-food prices, limited income earning options, and nutrition surveys confirm their nutrition situation is at or greater than internationally acceptable emergency thresholds.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 15 Issued March 7, 2008 3.3 Deyr ’07/08 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION Table 5: Deyr ’07/08 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

Deyr ‘07/08 Production in MT Deyr ‘07/08 Deyr ‘07/08 as Deyr ‘07/08 as percent of Regions as percent of percent of Deyr 5-year average Sorghum Maize Total Cereal Deyr ‘06/07 PWA(1995-2006) (2002-2006) Bakool 2,580 290 2,870 52% 165% 114% Bay 36,770 2,750 39,520 63% 129% 105% Gedo 11,430 3,590 15,020 555% 291% 207% Hiraan 1,700 690 2,390 36% 34% 33% Juba Hoose (Lower) 0 560 560 64% 35% 69% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 5,880 1,420 7,300 149% 181% 200% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 10,840 7,870 18,710 90% 51% 50% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 3,320 4,790 8,110 124% 66% 60% Deyr 2007 Total 72,520 21,960 94,480 85% 96% 86%

The Deyr ’07/08 cereal production in southern Somalia Figure 3: Deyr ’07/08 Cereal Production Trends (1995 - is estimated at 94,480 MT, of which 77% is sorghum 2007) in Southern Somalia (72,520MT) and 23% maize (21,960MT). This is 86%, 96% and 85% of the 5-year Deyr average (‘02-06), Deyr PWA (‘95-06) and Deyr ’06/07, respectively (Table 5 and Figure 3). While the overall cereal production is near normal this season at only 14% below the 5-year average, there is considerable variation between regions. For example, Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production in Hiran region is 33%, and in Gedo and Middle Juba regions is over 200% compared to the 5-year average.

More than 40% of cereal production is from Bay region Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Cereal (due to average and above average rainfall), followed by Production in Southern Somalia nearly 20% from Lower Shabelle and 16% from Gedo region (Figure 4). Deyr season cereal production from the Shabelle regions normally contributes 50% of the total southern Somalia Deyr season cereal production. This Deyr ‘07/08, however, Shabelle cereal production

crop production crop accounts for only 28%. The poor performance from the Shabelle regions is due to a combination of poor irrigation infrastructure, costly farm inputs, limited tractor availability, insecurity and the poor performance of the rainfall in some areas.

Three regions, Hiran, Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle, experienced poor crop performance with cereal production estimated at 34%, 35% and 51% of Deyr PWA and 33%, 69% and 50% of 5-year average, respectively. In contrast, due to favourable rains, cereal production in Bakool, Bay, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions were 65%, 29%, 191% and 81% higher than the PWA and 14%, 5%, 107% and 100% higher compared to 5-year average, respectively. Even within regions with above normal production, there are areas of poor production. In areas within Bakool (Rabdure, Elberde, northern part of Wajid and southern part of Hudur and Tieglow), Bay (Berdale/Mawlimaad in Baidoa district) and Gedo (Garbaharay, Luq, Dolo and Belet Hawo), Deyr rains performed poorly and were not enough for crop growth and development. Figure 5: Sorghum and Maize Production Compared to In the northwest agro-pastoral regions of Awdal, Galbeed Post War Average (1998-2006) in Somaliland and Togdher regions, the Gu/Karan ’07 cereal production, normally harvested in late November and early Decem- ber, is slightly higher than earlier crop establishment production estimates due to the above usual and uniformly distributed Karan rains. Cereal crop production for the Gu/Karan ’07 season is estimated at 26,750MT, of which 85% is sorghum (22,720MT) and 15% maize (4,030MT) (Table 6 and Figure 5). This is the second highest cereal production since 1998, representing 149% of PWA (‘98 – 06), 107% of last Gu/Karan ’06, and 127% of 5-year average (’02 – ’06). Gabiley district has the highest agri-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 16 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Production Estimates in Northwest Somalia Gu/Karan 2007 Production in MT Gu 2007 as % of Gu Gu 2007 as % of Gu Regions Sorghum Maize Total Cereal 2006 PWA Awdal 3,186 1,219 4,405 96% 135% Galbeed 18,640 2,676 21,316 108% 151% Togdheer 891 127 1,018 164% 205% Gu -Karan 2007 total 22,717 4,022 26,739 107% 149%

Figure 6: Regional Contribution Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Production Estimates by District/ Region in Somaliland

cultural potential and contributed 74% of the total cereal production, followed by Awdal region with 18% of the Qun-Ujeed Village- Awdal: Good Sorghum Harvest, Nov. ‘07 total cereal production in northwest (Figure. 6).

Sorghum Production crop production Sorghum is the main staple food in rain-fed agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods in southern Somalia. Sorghum production last Gu ’07 was almost a complete crop failure due to poor rains. Gu ’07 production was only 14% of the PWA and contributed 16% of the total cereal production. However, sorghum production improved during Deyr ‘07/08 due to favorable rains in Bay, Lower Shabelle (Wanlaweyn district), parts of Middle Shabelle, Middle Juba and Gedo (Bardere district), and contributed 77% of the Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production. Deyr ‘07/08 sorghum production is estimated at 72,520MT, which is 127% of Deyr sorghum PWA, 81% of Deyr ‘06/07, 104% of 5-year average. Figure 7: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Sorghum Generally, the majority of Deyr sorghum production production comes from Bay and Shabelle regions combined (80% of Deyr PWA sorghum production in southern Somalia). These regions produced about 90% of the total Deyr sorghum production in this Deyr ‘07/08 season, with Bay contributing 51% and Shabelle regions combined, 20%. Gedo region produced 16% of the total sorghum production (Figure 7). Only 14% of Deyr ‘07/08 sorghum production comes from other regions of Middle Juba 8%, Bakol 3%, Hiran 2% and Lower Juba 0%.

Maize Production Deyr ‘07/08 maize production in southern Somalia is sig- Figure 8: Regional Contribution of Deyr ’07/08 Maize nificantly below average. Maize is estimated at 21,960MT, production which is 53% of Deyr maize PWA, 54% of 5-year average and more or less similar to the last Deyr ‘06/07 maize production. Maize contributed only 23% of the total Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production, whereas it normally provides around 45% of total Deyr cereal production. The significant losses or failure of maize production in the last two seasons (Deyr ‘07/08 and Gu ‘07) will negatively affect the availability and accessibility of maize and/or cereal in general in the coming months and will negatively affect cereal flow, availability and prices.

In the Deyr ’07/08 season, the Shabelle regions experienced poor maize production, and while still producing 58% of the total maize production in southern Somali, it represents only 39% of PWA and 40% of 5-year average (Figure 8). A combination of poor performance of Deyr rainfall, poor and ineffective irrigation infrastructure, costly farm inputs, high fuel prices and insecurity contributed to poor maize production from the Shabelle.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 17 Issued March 7, 2008 Cereal Availability Figure 9: Annual Cereal Production by Agricultural Although the cereal production in the Deyr ‘07/08 in Season 250250,0005050,0000000000 southern Somalia is near normal, the overall annual cereal MMaizeaize

SorghumSorghum production for the country (Gu ’07 and Deyr ‘07/08) is 200200,000,000 PWA ( (1995-2006)1995-2006) 57% of PWA and is the second lowest cereal production in more than a decade (Figure X). This is due primarily to 150150,000500,00000000 MT

the extremely poor cereal production in the main produc- 100100,0000000,0000000000 tion season (Gu ’07 is 31% of PWA). Locally produced cereal availability is extremely low, as this is not only the 550,0000,00000 third consecutive year of below normal annual cereal, but 0 two of the three consecutive years are the lowest levels 19199599599955 19966 199719997 199819998 199919999 2000200000 20012000001 200220000002 200320000003 20042000044 200520055 2006200066 2007200070007 in more than a decade (Figure 9). YearYYeYeaeaar

The FSAU Deyr ’07/08 cereal availability analysis reveals that many better-off and middle wealth groups in Bay, Gedo, Shabelle, and Middle Juba regions have some cereal stocks, from the Deyr ’06/07, Gu ’07, and/or the current season production, which could last, as an average of the two options (15kg/ppm and 8.3kg/ppm), up to ﬁve to seven months. Cereal stocks in Bay region could last up to more than ten months (Table X). In the Shabelle regions combined, availability and supply of locally produced cereals are below average at both household (poor and lower middle) and market levels due to six consecutive seasons of poor crop production (Gu ’05 65%, Deyr ‘05/06 62%, Gu ’06 77%, Deyr ‘06/07 54%, Gu ’07 44% and Deyr ‘07/08 55% of PWA) and an increased demand from neighboring areas and IDPs from Mogadishu. Most of the poor and lower middle wealth groups in the Shabelle regions are increasingly dependent on market purchases. Cereal stocks are readily available in Bay region due to an average Gu ’06 (98% of PWA), a bumper harvest in Deyr ’06/07 (228% of PWA), followed by a good Deyr ’07/08 crop production (129% of PWA) (Table 7).

Table 7: Local Cereal Production: Maize and Sorghum Availability in Southern Regions, July’07 - June ’08

Carry-over Total # of Carry-over Total # of months Total Total Annual UNDP 2005 number of months covered number of Total months covered by total months of Region Production Population months from by total Annual months from of availability Annual Prodution availability (MT) (Rural) Deyr 06/07 Prodution Deyr 06/07 (8.3kg/PP)* (15kg/PP)* (15kg/PP)* (15kg/PP)* (8.3 kg/PP)* (8.3kg/PP)*

Hiraan 4,676 260,698 1 0 1 2 0 2

Shabelle 18,699 419,070 3 0 3 5 0 5 Dhexe (Middle)

Shabelle 56,238 677,937 6 0 6 10 0 10 Hoose (Lower) Bay 43,490 493,749 6 2 8 11 9 20

crop production crop Bakool 3,073 249,189 1 0 1 1 0 1 Gedo 16,699 247,076 5 0 5 8 0 8 M. Juba (Dhexe) 14,261 184,138 5 0 5 9 0 9 L. Juba (Hoose) 4,851 261,108 1 0 1 2 0 2 Total 161,986 2,792,965 4 0 4 7 2 9 Long-term

Mean 249,961 6 11 (1995-2006) Table 8: Local Production: Cereal and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions, July ’07 - June ’08

Total # of Pop Food Total # of Total Annual Pop Food Need Food AID Total Food UNDP 2005 months covered Need per months covered Production per month Time Frame July ‘07 to Available Population by total food month by total food Gu/Deyr+Off- (MT) May 08 (MT) (Rural) available (MT) available season (15kg/PP)* (15kg/PP)* (8.3kg/PP)* (8.3kg/PP)* July 07 to 161,986 131,233 293,219 2,792,965 41,894 7 23,182 13 June 08 5yr Average 245,917 245,917 2,792,965 41,894 6 23,182 11 2002-2006 Long-term

Average 249,961 249,961 2,792,965 41,894 6 23,182 11 (1995-2006) * Two different cereal requirements are provided for sensitivity analysis and comparison. The ﬁgure of 15kgs per person per month is equivalent to 1800 kcal per person per day and is based on a 90kg bag cereal for a household of six (FSAU baseline data). The lower estimation of 8.3kg is equivalent to 996 kcal per person per day and is based on a 50kg bag of cereal for a household of six. Note that WFP Somalia food aid rations are typically estimated on 12.5kg per person per month and scenario analysis for this are available (contact FSAU). Cereal Prices Maize and sorghum prices show an upward trend in all markets of southern Somalia and have increased by 120% - 210% since Jan. ‘07 (Figure 10). In the Shabelle regions, maize prices are 92% higher than the 5-year average (’02 – ‘06) due to a combination of low cereal production and supply, and increased demand for cheaper locally produced cereals following hyper inﬂation in imported food prices. In the Juba regions, maize prices vary between markets with the highest maize prices recorded in Lower Juba. For instance, in Jamame, maize prices are 276% higher than Jan. ’07.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 18 Issued March 7, 2008 Figure 10: Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (SoSH/SlSH) Figure 11: Hiran Region, Trends in Sorghum Prices

Maize prices in Middle Juba are lower than those in Lower Juba due to the improving cereal production in the last three consecutive seasons. Sorghum prices also vary between regions depending on the seasonal crop prodction performance. The highest sorghum prices are noted in Beletweyne, Hiran region, where in Dec.’07 sorghum prices are 112%, and 135% higher than July ’07 and 5-year average (‘02 – 06), respectively. High prices in this region are due to ﬁve consecutive poor seasonal cereal production , the impact of IDPs in the region, and inter-regional trade restrictions due to insecurity (Figure 11).

In contrast, the increase of sorghum price in Bay region Map 8: Local Production Cereal Flow January ’08 is not as dramatic. The sorghum price in Dec. ’07 is 39% higher than the July ’07 price and 51% higher than the 5- year average. Sorghum prices remain high in Bay region due to increased demand outside the region, i.e crop production Shaballe, Hiran and Central regions (Map 8). The bulk of the Deyr ’07/08 cereal production from southern Somalia is expected to enter into the markets by mid-Feb. ’08, therefore in the next two months prices of local cereals may decline slightly in some areas. However, prices are likely return to an upward trend until the coming Gu ’08 harvest due to low overall local cereal supplies following the second lowest annual cereal production in more than a decade, as well as increased demand and high transport costs. In the coming months, FSAU/FAO will closely monitor the ﬂow and prices of cereals.

Terms of Trade Generally, the terms of trade between cereal and labor from Jan. – Dec. ‘07 declined in all main markets in southern Somalia (Figure 12). For example, in the Sha- belle regions, the terms of trade (ToT) between labor and cereals dropped by 53% and 31% in Dec. ’07 compared to Jan. ’07 and 5-year average, respectively. The result is that poor households in the Shabelle regions are only getting the equivalent of less than 5kgs maize for one-day labor. Since the cereal prices are likely to have an upward Figure 12: Regional Average Monthly Terms of Trade: trend until the coming Gu ’08 harvest, the terms of trade Cereal to Labour will be expected to decline until the harvest of the coming Gu ’08 season. FSAU/FAO will closely monitor the trend of terms of trade between labor and cereals, daily labor wage rate and cereal prices.

Cereal Balance The Gu ‘07 cereal balance sheet issued in August ‘07 was based on actual post Gu ’07 cereal production and projected Deyr ‘07/08 and Gu/Karan ’07 cereal production estimates. In the revised Annual Cereal Balance Sheet (Jan ’08), domestic cereal supply is now based on actual Gu/Karan ’07 crop production in northwest, and actual Deyr ‘07/08 crop production in southern Somalia. All other components of the Cereal Balance Sheet continue the same. Food Aid is updated with the current information from WFP and CARE and commercial imports are updated with the actual imports for the period between June

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 19 Issued March 7, 2008 and December 2007. Gu/Karan ‘07 actual production is Figure 13: Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2004- 2007) 2,000Mt higher than was projected and the Deyr ‘07/08 production is 5,000MT lower than the initial projections (Figure 13 and Table 9). The most signiﬁcant changes in the revised sheet include food aid and commercial imports. Due to the high cost of imported foods, commercial imports are now estimated to be 25,000Mt (6%) less than initially estimated. Food aid imports, however, has increased by 49,000MT. The additional food aid has offset both the decreased commercial imports as well as the reduction in the Deyr 07/08 cereal production. As a result the overall surplus is estimated at 105,000 MT (assuming 100% commercial imports). Critical indicators to monitor over the coming 6 months will be locally produced and imported staple cereal prices as well as the commercial food imports. Somalia is dependent on imported cereals and if commercial food imports are only 75% of the projection then the annual surplus decreases to only 5,000Mt. A continued increase in prices and reduced commercial imports will negatively impact on the ability of households to access food, especially the poor wealth groups.

Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet June 2007 to May 2008.

CEREAL BALANCE SHEET UPDATED CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘07 AT JAN ‘08 Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for 100% Net Somalia 75% Net 100% Net Commercial 75% Net Commercial Imports (June 2007 to May 2008) Commercial Imports Commercial Imports Imports (‘000MT) (‘000MT) (‘000MT) (‘000MT) DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 213 210 Opening Stocks1 38 38 Domestic Cereal Supply ’07/08 175 172

Gu 20072 49 49 Gu Karan 2007 Northwest3 25 27 Off-season Gu 20074 22 Deyr 07/08)5 99 94 DOMESTIC UTILISATION Cereal Utilization Requirements6 636 636 IMPORT REQUIREMENTS Anticipated Commercial Imports7 425 319 400 300 ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFI- 2 -104 -26 -126 CIT CEREAL 82 82 131 131 Food Aid Distributed, Stocks Tran- sit and Pipeline8 WFP 55 55 92 92 CARE 28 28 39 39

national cereal balance sheet national cereal ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFI- 84 -22 105 5 CIT CEREAL List of Assumptions and Calculations (Footnotes) 1 Estimated opening stocks consists of commercial import stocks at ports to markets and carry over cereal availability The updated Cereal Balance Sheet uses as a rough estimate commercial stocks of 16,000MT based on FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, Sept 3, 1999. Includes 22,000MT local production cereal stocks in Bay region. 22007 Gu Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 48564MT (rounded to 49,000MT). 3Gu-Karan 2007 crop production estimates for Northwest Somalia is 26,739 (rounded to 27,000MT). 4Actual off-season Gu crop production is 1600MT (rounded to 2000MT) based on Post harvest off-season assessment. 52007/8 Deyr Crop production estimates in Southern Somalia is 94468 MT (rounded to 94,000MT). 6Total cereal utilization requirement composed of 600,000 MT food use, 3000MT feed use, seed losses which are 10 percent of the crop production (17,000 MT) and 16,000 closing stock (same as commercial opening stock). ‘Food use’ calculated based on assumption of total population of 7,502,654 (UNDP SOMALIA, 1st August 2006) and per capita cereal consumption of 80kg/year (1999 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999). Per capita cereal consumption in Somalia is lower than would be dictated by the standard 2,100 kilocalorie per capita per day. The percentage of kilocalories from cereals needs further research. Feed use and seed losses based on estimates derived for Cereal Supply/Demand Balance, 1999/2000, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment, September 9, 1999. 7The Updated Cereal balance sheet does not use the three year projection. Instead actual commercial imports June-December is used (237,680MT) plus projected commercial imports based on three year average commercial imports Jan to May is 173,474MT .WFP wheat and rice Food Aid Imports of 11,138MT subtracted from Total commercial imports. Data are from Berbera and Bossaso Official Port Import Statistics and, El-Ma’an and Jazira (Mogadishu) Port Figures collected by WFP. Estimated commercial imports consist of rice, wheat flour, and pasta. These are expressed in cereal equivalents with conversion factors of wheat flour = 1.33, pasta=2.00 and rice= 1. 8 In the Updated Cereal Balance Sheet of Jan ’08 from June ‘07, WFP distributed 46596MT of food in Somalia, 4897 MT in transit and 25,778 MT pipeline. In the same period, CARE distributed 15,003 MT of food in Somalia and had 8100 MT in transit/pipeline as per scheduled arrivals. As of January ’08, WFP has 15,013MT and CARE has 15846 MT of stock.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 20 Issued March 7, 2008 EARLY WARNING: POTENTIAL LOCUST DAMAGE TO CROP AND PASTURE DURING THE Gu ‘08 SEASON In Sept. ‘07, swarms of locusts from Yemen moved to the northern regions of Sanag and Bari and then later migrated to the Hawd plateau of Nugal and Mudug regions. During that period, locust laid eggs in the soft soil of the Addun Livelihood Zone (Map 9) in North Mudug, while many more migrated to Ethiopia where they laid eggs in the Ogaden region. Others migrated to Galgadud (Dhusamareeb district) and Hiran (Buloburti district).

Reports from the northeast during Nov. indicated that locust hopper bands of the gregarious type were spotted in the Hawd and Sool Plateau area. These hopper bands spread towards the Hawd Pastoral areas of Galkayo and Galdogob in Mudug region, as well as Burtinle and Garowe in Nugal and damaged pasture. Rains in early Nov. in Addun pastoral areas in the central region provided suitable conditions for the eggs to hatch. Within four weeks these wings hoppers became adults. Large swarms were formed again in mid-Dec. ‘07 and ﬂew to Somali region of Ethiopia.

Further south locusts from Ethiopia migrated to Bakool (Elbarde Locust female laying eggs in an area between Ban- district) and from there they split into different directions. One dar Beyla and Qardo districts Bari region. swarm went to Teyeglow district of Bakool region and on to Burhakaba in Bay region and to Wanleweyne district Map 9: Somali Locust Watch by Livelihoods

of Lower Shebelle. The second swarm ﬂew to Wajid and locust watch Rabdhurre districts of Bakool region and then passed to Qansaxdhere district of Bay region. Others ﬂew to Burdhubo, Garbaharey and Luuq, then to Beled-Hawo districts of Gedo region where they laid eggs. Eggs were laid in agricultural areas of Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions and pastoral areas of Addun LZ (Galkayo and Jarriban districts), while coastal areas between Ber- bera and Zeila districts are also breeding zones. Eggs will remain dormant until it rains and conditions of the soil moisture are suitable for hatching. There is concern that any eggs laid during Nov. and Dec. ‘07 will then hatch during the onset of the Gu ’08 rains with the potential to damage crops and pasture in the districts already mentioned above. FORECAST: The future impact of locusts will depend on the performance of Gu ’08 rains. If rains are normal to above normal in the breeding areas, hatching is almost certain (Map 9) and will result in small hopper groups and bands to form. Therefore, there is a risk that numerous swarms will form during this time in agricultural and grazing areas of the country. This could be followed by yet another cycle of laying of eggs, hatching and swarming.

WHAT IS NEEDED • Desert Locusts can consume the equivalent of their body • Create awareness at the community level through local mass each day (2 g) in green vegetation such as leaves, media to report sightings to appropriate authorities. ﬂowers, bark, stems, fruits, and seeds. Nearly all crops • Emergency preparedness incase of desert locust out- and plants are at risk. What is more, locust droppings are break. toxic, and spoil any stored food that is left uneaten. • Carry out control operations and treatments to prevent • FSAU Field Analysts will closely monitor locust devel- huge devastation of crop and pasture. opments and effects on crop and pasture.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 21 Issued March 7, 2008 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND EXPORT

Background The livestock sector makes a signiﬁcant contribution Map 10: Livestock Migration Trends Dec. ’07 - Jan. ’08 to the national economy and the majority of the Somali population relies on this sector and related activities. Camel, cattle, sheep and goats are the primary livestock species in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In a normal year, most income and food sources of the livestock dependant households come from livestock and livestock products. Pastoralists frequently experience shocks such as resource based conﬂicts, droughts, disease outbreaks and livestock export trade bans, which negatively affect their food and livelihood security.

Pasture and Water Overall rangeland conditions in most pastoral areas are good to average, with the exception of the drought affected areas of Central regions (Galgadud and southern Mudug) and Hiran where pasture and water conditions are continuing to deteriorate. Acute water shortages and poor pasture will be continuing problems in these areas during the long dry Jilaal season (Jan. – March). In Galgaduud, South Mudug and Hiraan regions, poor rainfall in both the Gu ’07 and Deyr ’07/08, has resulted in continuous water trucking in some areas as early as June ’07, and will increasingly be required until the onset of the Gu ’08 rains (in mid-April ’08) (Table 10).

Localized areas in Togdheer, Sanaag, coastal areas of Shabelle and Juba, northern Gedo and parts of Bakool regions are also deteriorating due to below normal localized Deyr ‘07/08 rains. Areas of concern in the northeast and northwest (parts of Addun and Coastal Deeh Livelihoods Zones) during the Gu ’07 have had their berkads and shallow wells replenished and there are also improved rangeland conditions.

Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region

livestock production livestock production Region Water availability Pasture condition Body condition Migration Pattern

Gedo/ Juba Average in Gedo Good Good Normal: within the region regions but Good in Juba

Average in Bay and Average in Bay and Generally Normal: but livestock Bay/Bakool Average to Poor in Average to Poor in Good to Average from Rabdhure and El-barde outmi- Bakool Bakool grated to Ethiopia

Generally Normal: within the Cattle: Average region. Poor in coastal area Shebelle regions Average Camel, sheepand goats: Though livestock in coastal area of Average in the inland Average Lower Shebelle over crossed the river

Poor and deteriorating Abnormal: within the region and Central/Hiran Poor to very poor Poor to very poor but Average in Cowpea partial out migration to cross border Belt Ethiopia and north Mudug

Northeast Average Average Average Normal: within the region

Average to Good Average to Good Generally Normal: Except eastern except pockets of but Poor in pockets Sanaag, Nugaal & Hawd out mi- Nortwest Sool/Sanaag, Nugal Average to good of Sool/Sanaag and grated to Bari region and Ethiopia and North Hawd North Hawd LZs Zone 5 regions LZs

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 22 Issued March 7, 2008 Migration Normal opportunistic livestock migration is ongoing in most of the country, with the exception of stressed abnormal migration in Hiran and Central regions and a few pockets in the northwest regions (Map 10). In Galgaduud region some livestock out-migrated to Hawd of Mudug, Adduun of Jarriban and Zone 5 of Ethiopia, however, most herds were forced to remain within the region due to insecurity, where water and pasture are extremely poor. In Hiran region livestock from Beletweyn and Buloburte districts have moved to Jalalaqsi district due to poor pasture availability and insecurity has limited herds to out-migrate to other neighboring regions. Herds in the Nugal valley livelihood zone of Sanaag region out-migrated to north Togdheer region, Sool plateau livelihood zone of Sanaag region out- migrated to Bari region, while herds in parts of the Hawd livelihood zone of Togdheer out-migrated to Sool region and Zone 5 of Ethiopia. Coastal Deeh livestock of Shabelle and Juba regions are reported to have migrated to the riverine areas for better pasture. Part of Bakool livestock out-migrated to Zone 5 of Ethiopia, while another part migrated to Bay region and may reach up to Hawaii Basin of Brava district of Lower Shabelle. Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes

Calving/ Expected Milk Trend in Herd Size (June ’08) Conception Kidding Calving/ Region Production (Deyr ’07/08) (Deyr Kidding (Jan. (Deyr ’07/08) ’07/08) –June ’08) Livelihood Herd Size Relative to Baseline Southern Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Inland Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) pastoral Good for Camel: Low Camel & Camel & Cattle: camel & Southern Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Cattle: Low Cattle: High Low Gedo cattle but Agro- Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Sheep/goat: Sheep/goats: Average to pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Medium Medium Medium goats Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Dawa Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Below Baseline) livestock production Southeast Cattle: Increased (Below Baseline) Camel: Good for Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Medium camel & Juba Cattle: Medium for Medium for all Southern cattle but Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) regions Medium All species species Inland Average to Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Sheep/goats: Pastoral goats Medium Juba Agro- Cattle: Increased Below Baseline) pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Southern Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Inland Cattle: Increased (Above Baseline) Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Camel: Low Good in Bay B/Bakool Bay/ Cattle: Low High for All Low for all Cattle: Increased (Above Baseline) but Average agro- Bakool Sheep/goats: species species Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) in Bakool pastoral Low Southern Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Agro- Cattle: Increased (Above Baseline) pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Camel & Cattle: Southern Medium to High to Average Medium to Shebelle Inland and Low for all Medium for to below Low for all Medium increase for All species regions Agro- species All species Average species pastoral Sheep/goats: high Hawd Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Low for all High for All Poor for all Low for all Hiran species species species species Southern Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Inland Cattle: Increased (Above Baseline) Pastoral Sheep/Goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Addun Galgadud Cattle: Decreased ( Below Baseline) Low for all High for All Poor for all Low for all Pastoral & South Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline) species species species species Mudug Hawd Camel: Increased (above Baseline) Pastoral Sh/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Hawd Camel: Increased (above Baseline) Camel: High Camel: Low Pastoral Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline) Goat: Good to Cattle: Low Camel: Low Northeast medium Average for Nugal Camel: Increased (Above Baseline) Sheep/goats: Goat: Medium Sheep: camel pastoral Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline) Low None Camel: Increased (below Baseline) Sool pastoral Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline) Camel: High Hawd Camel: Low Camel: Increased (above Baseline) Goat: Good to pastoral Cattle: Low Camel: Low Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline) Nortwest medium Average for Sheep/goats: Goat: Medium Sheep: camel Low Golis/Guban Camel: Increased (above Baseline) None Pastoral Sh/goats: Increased (above Baseline)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 23 Issued March 7, 2008 Production and Reproduction Livestock body conditions are good to average in most pastoral and agro-pastoral areas due to overall improved pasture and water conditions, except in Central regions which are poor and deteriorating for all species and parts of Hiran region where body conditions for cattle are poor to deteriorating (Table 11).

The Deyr ‘07/08 season calving /kidding rate for camels and sheep/goats is high in the northwest, northeast, Central, Hiran, Shabelle, Bay/Bakool, and Gedo regions. However, in the Juba and Shabelle regions cattle and sheep/goats calving and kidding rates are medium due Exported cattle from Bay region en route to Garissa Cattle to the high to medium conception rates in Deyr ‘06/07 Market of Kenya, XX Dec’07. for camel, Gu ’07 for cattle, and Gu/Hagaa ’07 for goats Figure 14: Regional Trend Local Quality Cattle Prices (Table 11). Expected calving and kidding over the next six (SoSH/SlSH) months (up to June ’08) is low to medium for all regions. Medium goat kidding rates are expected in the northeast and northwest regions during Gu ’08, but medium to low lambing/kidding rates are expected in Juba and Shebelle regions where livestock birth control practices do not exist. Both in the northeast and northwest regions, goat conception was average while sheep did not conceive at all due to controlled mating enforced by the herders in order to maintain the sheep’s strength to survive the coming harsh and dry Jilaal period.

Milk production in most of the regions is good to aver- Figure 15: Regional Trend in Local Quality Goat Prices age due to high to medium calving and kidding in Deyr (SoSH/SlSH) ‘07/08 and low to medium calving and kidding during Gu ’07. Milk production will decrease, however, during the long dry Jilaal period (from Jan. to mid April). In the drought affected areas of Hiran and Central regions (Galgadud and south Mudug), even though the calving/ kidding rates are high, milk production is low as herders are only taking a very limited amount of milk for their

livestock production livestock production children, allowing the young livestock access to most of the milk to ensure their survival.

The FSAU Deyr ‘07/08, pastoral herd dynamics model indicates an increasing trend in herd sizes over the last Figure 16: Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: six months for all regions except for Central regions of Cereal to Goat Galgadud and Mudug. (Table 11). In Galgadud and South Mudug, pastoralists have been selling more livestock than normal to cover increased costs of water and food. Herd sizes, therefore, have not only decreased, but are now below baseline herd size levels. Cattle pastoralists in Juba and Gedo regions (Dawa Pastoral of Gedo and Southeast Pastoral of Juba regions) are showing an increasing trend, but they have not yet reached baseline levels and will likely require three more seasons to fully recover.

Herd growth in camel and sheep/goats in most regions, indicates an increasing trend and have reached above baseline. The exceptions are Sool plateau and Nugal Valley Pastoral in northeast where camel baseline herd size did not recover from the 2004 drought, and sheep and goat for the Dawa pastoral in Gedo that have not recovered fully from the ‘05/06 drought losses.

Disease Generally, there are no outbreaks of major livestock diseases, however, high mortality was reported in Golis/Guban livelihood zones of Baki, Borama and Lughaya districts of the northwest regions affecting small ruminants probably linked to the recent cold Hays rains in Awdal region.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 24 Issued March 7, 2008 Prices and Terms of Trade Prices of all livestock species are higher than the 5-year average prices. Average prices in 2007 for cattle in the Sorghum Belt, Shabelle and Juba regions are 49%, 24%, and 58% higher compared to the 5-year averages (‘02-06). However, there is a slight decline from Dec ’07 to Jan. ‘08. These declines include local quality goat prices in Sorghum Belt and Shabelle regions, cattle prices in Sorghum Belt, Juba and northwest and camel prices in Shabelle, Juba and northeast regions. The reason for the decline is reduced demand following the Hajj period and from external markets. Terms of trade for livestock to cereals in the southern regions have fallen since Jan. ‘07 and are the lowest since June ’06 due to signiﬁcant local cereal price increase. However, it is still favorable compared to the last 5-years (Figure 16). Terms of trade for local quality goat to cereals in Shabelle, Sorghum Belt and Juba regions are extremely low in Jan. ’08 and are 51%, 45% and 58% lower respectively when compared to 5-year January averages and 24%, 18% and 2% lower compared to Dec ’07. This sharp decline is due to sharp increase of local cereal prices in Jan ’08 by 131%, 140% and 114%, respectively when compared to Jan. 5-year average (03-07) and 22%, 8% and 14% higher than Dec ’07 (Figure 15 ).

Export quality goat prices are at record high levels. The average monthly prices for 2007 for export quality goats in the northeast, northwest and Central regions are 79%, 58% and 66% higher than January 5-year averages (‘03-07), respectively, and in the Jan. ’08 prices are 5%, and 3% higher, but 1% lower in the central when compared to Dec. ‘07. Average terms of trade for livestock to rice in central and northeast regions are 48% and 35% lower compared to the Jan. 5-year average and are 47% and 45% lower when compared to the same time last year (Jan. ’07) respectively. These lower terms of trade are the result of sharp increases in imported rice following rapid inﬂation caused by the Somali Shilling devaluation.

During 2007, average prices of imported rice increased livestock production in northeast and Central by 55%, 63%, when compared to 5-year average (’02-06) and increased in Jan. ’08 by 125%, 131%, respectively when compared to Jan ’07. In the northwest regions, Jan. ‘08 average price of imported rice and local maize increased by 26% and 53% when compared Jan ’07, however, sorghum price declined by Good pasture in the riverine but infested with tsetse ﬂy preventing 6%. (See Cereal price graph). livestock access, XX Dec’07

In the northwest regions, terms of trade of goat to rice Figure 17: Berbera & Bossaso Livestock Exports (Heads) are less affected. While terms of trade between export and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) quality goats and rice in the northwest show a declining trend, in Jan ’08 it had only declined by 13% and 10%, when compared to Jan. ’07 and 5-year average Jan. prices (‘03-07), respectively. Despite the falling terms of trade, with the exception of central, the projection is that most pastoralists throughout Somalia will be able to maintain their cereal needs, as they have large herd sizes above baseline levels, thus have access to sufﬁcient marketable animals

Southern Somalia Livestock Trade The majority of the cattle population of Somalia are in the Figure 18: Total Annual Livestock Exports compared to south, with small numbers in the agro-pastoral areas of 5-year Average Hargeisa, Burao, Gabiley, Borama district of Northwest regions, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt agro-pastoral of central Galgadud region. Most of the southern Somalia cattle are traded and trekked overland to Kenya through informal cross-border trade, but some cattle are traded internally for restocking (breeding) or local consumption. Exceptions are the cattle from Hiran region, which are mostly exported through Bossaso, however, when pasture availability en route to Juba region is favourable large numbers of cattle are trekked overland to Kenya.

Since the Kenya government lifted the border closure for cattle trade in March ‘07, trade activities were steadily increasing. However, following the Dec. 27 elections in Kenya, and the general unrest, cross border cattle trade between southern Somalia and Kenya declined signiﬁcantly. Despite this, cattle traders are still purchasing animals

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 25 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 12: Livestock Exported from Berbera Port Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (Jan. - Dec. ’07) (Jan. - Dec. ’07)

2007 Livestock Exports from Bossaso 2007 Livestock Exports from Berbera Month Sheep/Goats Cattle Camel Month Sheep/Goats Cattle Camel January 119,850 1,700 1,480 January 10,270 1,620 0 February 76,000 10,200 600 February 64,950 2,440 2,920 March 280,339 2,792 1,342 March 96,100 5,390 2,600 April 17,959 1,154 1,236 April 37,015 5,620 3,900 May 73,644 4,732 430 May 38,770 8,195 2,950 June 35,298 9,585 1,959 June 38,340 6,882 1,134 July 77,696 10,114 1,391 July 108,320 20,791 3,762 August 109,077 8,937 99 August 85,390 9,388 2,400 September 191,490 9,729 3,614 September 106,144 9,118 1,437 October 111,580 4,440 1,980 October 112,924 7,779 652 November 379,050 7,520 155 November 315,978 10,975 946 December 252,000 7,095 685 December 320,502 10,615 249 Total 1,522,855 89,190 27,580 Total 1,535,831 87,621 10,341

and livestock values remain at all time highs due to the Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, devaluation of the Somali Shilling, and the good body Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –Dec. 07) conditions of cattle from southern Somalia. Burao Beletweyn Mogadishu Galkayo Month Abattoir Abattoir Abattoir Abattoir Northern Livestock Trade January New ban New ban New ban 3,660 A total of 3,273,418 live animals were exported through February New ban New ban New ban 590 Berbera and Bossaso between Jan. and Dec. ’07, which is March 7,800 New ban New ban 4,694

33% greater than the five year average of total livestock Breaking April Insecurity Insecurity 3,663 exports and the highest number of animals exported Contract since 1997. (Figure 18). Most, or 3,058,686 of these, are May 7,200 Insecurity Insecurity 917 Breaking June 9,088 Insecurity Insecurity sheep/goats of which 50% were exported from Bossaso contract Breaking port and 50% were exported from Berbera port (Table July 6,460 Insecurity Insecurity 12 and 13). contract August 5,008 Insecurity Insecurity 2,809 September 6,425 Insecurity Insecurity 5,376 The high export figures are despite the reduction in October 5,235 Insecurity Insecurity 5,722 exports figures from April to June as a result of the November 12,000 Insecurity Insecurity 2,696 confusion created by the trade agreement between the December 11,102 Insecurity Insecurity 1,512

Saudi livestock trader and Somaliland and Puntland Total 70,318 - - 31,639 livestock exports authorities. The livestock export ban imposed on Sudan because of RVF outbreak prior to the Hajj period created more demand for animals from Somalia.

Livestock Exports The informal livestock ban by the Gulf States in Jan. ’07 (following conﬁrmed reports of an RVF outbreak in Kenya) and increased civil insecurity has negatively impacted the export of carcass meat and only two out of six abattoirs are functioning in the country (Table 14). In 2007, Burao abattoir exported a total of 70,310 carcasses, which is 42% lower compared to ’06 (121,858 heads). Galkayo abattoir resumed operations and exported 31,639 carcass heads. However, there is an increase in the volumes exported over the last two months.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 26 Issued March 7, 2008 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS Figure 19: Monthly Exchange Rates - SOSH and SLSH to USD The continuing devaluation of the Somali shilling, increasing fuel costs, and conﬂict related disruptions of inter-regional trade and import activities will continue to push prices high in the coming months, thereby negatively affecting poor household purchasing power and food access.

Exchange Rates: The value of the Somali shilling against the US dollar in most of the main regional markets, especially where the Somali shilling circulates continues to drop (Figure 19). The prevailing levels of exchange rates Figure 20: Juba Region: Trend in Imported Commodity are the highest seen in southern markets since 2002, when Prices compared to Exchange Rate the livestock ban was its peak and the supply of dollar into the country was very low. This sharp devaluation is mainly due to a large increase in the supply of new Somali Shilling notes in the market forcing many business people to loose conﬁdence in trading with the Somali Shillings.

In the Bakaara market, the Somali Shilling lost value in the last year by 59% from Sosh 13,850 in Dec. ‘06 to market analysis and trends 22,000 per US dollar in Dec. ’07 (Ref. FSAU Market data Update, Jan. ‘08). However, when compared to the 5-year Dec. average, the shilling lost 33% during the same period. In contrast the Somaliland Shilling has remained stable Figure 21: Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported during the ﬁrst half of 2007, and even appreciated by 9% Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate in the last 6 months.

Import Commodity Prices: Imported food commodities, such as rice, sugar, vegetable oil, and wheat ﬂour are in short supply as a result of increased levels of insecurity, renewed marine piracy, the imposition of new port tariffs, and disruptions in the regional markets. The Mogadishu conﬂict is limiting trade and economic activities in most southern and central markets and is particularly affecting the Mogadishu main (Bakaara) market and the seaport where traders are reporting a slowdown of activities over the past year. The majority of traders have closed their Figure 22: Sorghum Belt: Trend in Imported Commodity business, due to uncertainty and insecurity. In addition to Prices compared to Exchange Rate the limited availability, the sharp devaluation of the Somali Shilling is affecting imported commodity prices

In the Shabelle and Central regions, rice increased by 20% and 49%, respectively between July ‘07 and Dec. ‘07 (Figures 8 and 9) and 118% and 152%, respectively, when compared to the 5-year average. Fuel prices, especially petrol, have also increased by an average of 48% in the last year (Dec. ‘06 and Dec. ’07) in Shabelle, Sorghum Belt, Juba, Central markets due to increased and high global fuel prices. Expectations are that imported cereal prices will increase further in the coming months due to Figure 23: Central: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate slow down of trade activities which affect the availability of food and non-food commodities in most of southern markets (Figure 20,21,22 and 23).

The combination of the effects from the seasonal price changes, inﬂation, increasing road blocks, market disruptions, and lack of employment opportunities (especially in the shabelle and central regions) are having a direct impact on food and livelihood security, especially for the urban poor and IDPs who are dependent on market purchases.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 27 Issued March 7, 2008 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW

Overall Nutrition Situation Overview An integrated analysis of the nutrition information1 collected from July to December 2007 indicates a varying nutrition situation throughout the country (See Nutrition Maps 1, 2 and 3). Civil insecurity in Mogadishu, the impacts of on-going displacement of people into neighbouring regions and a deepening drought in Central regions are key driving factors in the current analysis in parts of South Central Somalia. In addition, hyper-inﬂation of costs for basic food and non-food items throughout the country is creating problems of food access for urban populations, especially the urban poor, while morbidity and poor child care practices underpin the chronic sub-optimal nutrition situation in most of rural Somali populations.

From this analysis, of most concern is the deterioration in Poor sanitation increases vulnerability to worm infesta- the Central regions (Galgadud and Mudug) and southern tion, malaria and diarrhoeal diseases and is a predis- Nugal regions which has resulted in rates of global acute posing factor to acute malnutrition, FSAU Beletweyne, malnutrition (GAM) of 17.2% in the Hawd and 15.9% in Nov 2007 the Addun pastoral livelihood zones, both of which are above the emergency2 threshold of 15% and indicate a Critical nutrition situation. In the Shabelle agropastoral and new IDP population groups (Afgoye and Merka), the nutrition situation also remains Critical with a GAM rate of 17.5% and 15.2% respectively from two surveys conducted in November3, thus indicating no change from the earlier surveys in May. Similarly, a sustained Critical nutrition situation is reported in the Hiran Riverine population with GAM4 rate of 17.5%. The agropastoral results do not indicate any signiﬁcant change from the earlier assessment conducted in March. The worrying nutrition situation in the Central, Shabelle and Hiran population groups is as a result of cumulative shocks, including civil insecurity in Mogadishu, that has led to loss of livelihoods and massive displacement of people into these areas thereby exerting pressure on the limited resources (water, health care etc). In the Addun livelihood in Central and Galgadud region, about 40% of households sampled in the November 2007 surveys reported either being new IDPs or hosting recently displaced people. These factors, compounded with poor access to milk, poor child care practices and poor sanitation (especially for Hiran) have aggravated diarrhoeal incidences and thus acute malnutrition. Analysis of nutrition surveys conducted in Somalia (n=105) over the last seven years has highlighted a strong association with acute malnutrition and reported diarrhoea. This is illustrated by the chronically high levels of acute malnutrition over the last few years in many parts of south and central Somalia (Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiran) nutrition overview even when there has been improved availability and access to food. (See Photo).

A Critical nutrition situation also persists in most parts of Bay and Bakool regions and Juba riverine populations. An outbreak of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) reported in Baidoa in December 2007 (WHO), in addition to continuing inﬂux of IDPs from Mogadishu, has contributed to a Very Critical nutrition situation in the Baidoa new and protracted IDPs camps. Protracted IDPs in Bossasso also face a Very Critical nutrition situation, again linked to their speciﬁc vulnerabilities. For Gedo, following an integrated analysis of data from a rapid nutrition assessment based on the mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) in December 2007, health information system data and the admission trends of acutely malnourished children into selective feeding programs, the nutrition situation remains Critical but stable.

However, some positive changes in the nutrition situation have been reported in parts of the country. In the Shabelle riverine population, the GAM levels have reduced from 17.0% in May 2007 to 14.0% in November 2007. This reduction is likely linked to increased access to humanitarian interventions, fish, fruits and vegetables. In addition, the acute watery diarrhoea outbreak in February 2007 and contributed significantly to the Critical nutrition situation in the Gu’ 07 has been controlled with a positive impact on nutrition, also observed in the Hiran agropastoral population. Wajid area has also indicated some improvement, though not statistically significant, from Critical rates in February, to Serious rates in October. In Bari region of the Northeast, the nutrition situation has improved from Serious in the Gu’07 to the current Alert phase, associated with increased access to meat and milk products following good Deyr ’07/08 rains that has resulted in improved livestock conditions and calving.

1 The analysis was conducted on a range of nutrition information collected from July to December 2007 including 19 surveys (16 by FSAU and partners, 2 by ACF and 1 by MSF Spain between Sept-Dec 07), 110 Health facilities, Rapid MUAC assessments in conducted in 93 sites, data from partners on feeding centres, WHO Acute Watery Diarrhoea Updates and other secondary data.

2 The Hawd Pastoral population recorded a GAM rate 17.2% (14.1-20.5) and a SAM rate of 1.3% (0.6-2.1) with 15.9% (12.8-18.9) GAM and 1.6% (0.8-2.6) SAM recorded in the Addun Pastoral population.

3 The Shabelle Agropastoral population recorded a GAM rate 17.6% (13.3-21.8) with a SAM rate of 3.2% (1.7-4.6); IDPs in Afgoye/Merka recorded a GAM rate of 15.2% (11.7-18.6) and a SAM rate of 3.2% (1.9-4.5). The riverine population recorded a GAM rate of 14.0% (11.2-16.7) and a SAM rate of 2.9% (1.6-4.1).

4 The Hiran Riverine population recorded a GAM rate 17.5% (114.5-20.4) and a SAM rate of 2.5% (1.5 – 3.6)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 28 Issued March 7, 2008 The situation in Dhusamareb5, the Coastal Deeh, Juba Map 11: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2007 and Huddur district remains Serious. In the northwest and other parts of the northeast, the situation remains in the Alert phase except for protracted IDPs in Berbera and Burao currently in a Critical nutrition situation with the same population in Hargeisa slightly better of in a Serious nutrition situation. A summary of the ﬁndings from all nutrition assessments conducted in Somalia in 2007, in addition to nutrition information from sentinel sites, rapid MUAC assessment, health facility data and other relevant information, is provided under the regional overviews.

5 ACF led Nutrition Survey in November 2007 reported GAM rate of 12.4% and SAM rate of 0.6%

Classiﬁcation of Nutrition Situation: The nutrition situation is classiﬁed using a range of indicators as follows: Anthropometric indicators – acute malnutrition (wasting) and crude mortality rates from nutrition assessments, Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) from rapid assessments, trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from the Health Information System (HIS), presence of selective feeding centres and trends in admissions. Non anthropometric indicators – dietary diversity, meal frequency, disease prevalence, immunization coverage and food security situation, are also considered. A minimum of 2 anthropometric indicators are required to make

an analysis with the supporting non anthropometric indicators. The nutrition overview speciﬁc classiﬁcation matrix is an inter-agency working document compiled by the FSAU with input from the UN and NGO partners operating in Somalia and in the region.

Map 12: Estimated Nutrition Situation, July 2007 Map 13: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2008

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 29 Issued March 7, 2008 SOMALI KNOWLEDGE ATTITUDE PRACTICES STUDY SUMMARY FINDINGS

FSAU has been conducting nutrition assessments in Somalia for the last eight years. These assessments have consistently recorded high levels of acute malnutrition and under 5 mortality rates (U5MR) in many parts of South and Central Somalia. Rates remain high even in years with improved food production in both agriculture and livestock sectors. This information is not only reﬂected in the FSAU analysis but also in analysis of nutrition surveys conducted across South Central Somalia since 1980. A clear contributing factor is the lack of a functional health system to provide basic services such as immunisation, growth monitoring, health and nutrition education and treatment of childhood illness.

In addition, humanitarian agencies’ efforts to provide such services are hampered by recurrent insecurity. Available data on care practices of young children also indicate alarming practices in breastfeeding, complementary feeding and treatment of childhood illness. Based on the hypothesis of the role of child care, feeding and health practices as a significant contributing factor to the chronically high rates of acute malnutrition, FSAU com- missioned a Knowledge Attitude and Practice study in September 2007 to explore these issues and subsequently provide recommendations for simple and effective responses. The key findings are highlighted below. A newly born child in Shabelle (Afgoye) IDP Camp, FSAU, November 2007 Pre-and post-natal Care: The study reported that in general, pregnant women do not have sufficient access to appropriate nutrition knowledge and mainly rely on social networks including grandmother, traditional heal- ers and sheikhs for advice on child feeding and health seeking behaviours. There is no special diet for pregnant women, however their food intake is reduced in the 3rd nutrition overview trimester to control the size of the baby and thereby ease delivery. Some of the food prohibited (though in negligible levels) includes honey, lamb meat and ghee. The traditional post-natal care of 40-days after delivery (Umol Bah) encouraged mothers to eat and breastfeed well in the 1st month after delivery but this good practice is diminishing due to the impact of war.

Breast Feeding: Knowledge Attitudes and Practices on A breastfeeding mother from Berbera IDP settlement, breastfeeding are mainly controlled by social environ- FSAU September 2007 ment such as through maternal grandmothers and other elderly women in the community. Though breastfeeding is acceptable to all mothers, initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour of birth is not practiced. Infants are generally introduced to sugary water from day one and put on the breast on the 3rd -4th day after delivery deliberately to avoid the colostrums which is considered heavy, thick, course, dirty, toxic, and harmful to children’s health. Exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life is not practiced as breast milk alone is believed to be inadequate for the child. Complementary foods are therefore, introduced as early as the first month of life. The agreed and acceptable duration of breastfeeding of 24 months based on the Koran Surah Al-Baqarah verse 2:233, is consistent with recommended standards of persistence of breastfeeding. However, lack of knowledge, inappropriate beliefs and very close birth spacing are major obstacles to successful breastfeeding for up to two years.

Complementary Feeding: Overall, there is inappropriate or lack of knowledge on proper complementary feeding practices with an early introduction (from birth to three months) of complementary foods mainly in the form of cow or goat milk reported across livelihood zones. Households with difﬁculties of accessing milk often replace it with tea or porridge after the third month of life. Poor accessibility of milk at the household level among agropastoralists,

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 30 Issued March 7, 2008 riverine and urban poor populations is a major challenge to diversifying the complementary diet. Therefore in these population groups, infants are mainly weaned on cereal-based diets. Tea is often given to children before meals unfortunately reducing stomach capacity and appetite but it also interfering with absorption of nutrients such as iron, leading to micronutrient deﬁciency. Food intake prohibition is not commonly practiced but during illness, efforts are made to ensure that children get special diets for quick recovery while avoiding foods which are believed to aggravate the illnesses, particularly animal protein based foods. A woman draws water from the Shabelle River, Water and Sanitation: Access to safe water for domestic FSAU Beletweyne, November 2007 use is of major concern with most households relying on water from unprotected sources (see photo x), yet water treatment at home rarely happens for the majority. Case Study of Samey, a pregnant woman Cleary the role of unprotected water as the main cause without children from Middle Juba of childhood diarrhoea and subsequent levels of acute Samey is 17 years old and a second wife in her ﬁfth month of malnutrition cannot be underestimated. pregnancy and has already visited the MCH once, for vacci- nation. She was asked to go for a revisit after a month hence will return when the pregnancy is seven months. What are Health Seeking Behaviours: The most common dis- the advantages of going to MCH? I asked Samey. “I was vac- eases reported at community level are sanitation and cinated and since I had no appetite I was given some tablets that improved my appetite”, she answered.

water-related and include diarrhoea and ARI, tonsil- nutrition overview litis, intestinal parasitic infestations, whooping cough, Anticipated place of delivery: She plans to deliver at home otitis-media, and skin and eye infections. Across all like her mother and sister. She has elaborated on the disad- livelihood zones, responses to illnesses tend to follow a vantages of delivering at the MCH/OPD Buale as follows: there is no light in the night and the facility does not even generalized pattern of: have a midwife and things are not ready when you get there; in comparison to a TBA whom you call for and comes to you; Prayer Traditional home health practice Traditional kitty and all, ready to conduct the delivery. healer Buy medicine Get Sheikh to pray Health Dietary modification: Before pregnancy she was eating all facility. food types but due to it she now likes meat and pasta only. No vegetables except onions. This clearly outlines the lack of confidence in the com- Breastfeeding and complementary feeding plans: She will munity in more conventional health care practices. breastfeed her baby for the first time after three days. When I asked, why not in the first day? She responded that other Recommendations: The study revealed glaring evi- mothers begin breastfeeding after three days; reason being that the breast has no milk. She will also practice ‘inqarin’ dences that child feeding and care practices are far be- which is the habit of offering livestock milk as a Prelacteal low the acceptable standards mainly attributed to poor when the baby cries for the first time. This is a requirement knowledge attitudes and practices, many of which are as dictated by culture.

exacerbated with the collapse of the basic infrastructure. So what will be the baby taking in the three days? Undiluted Therefore, fostering customs and habits that will lead boiled milk with sugar but if it is camel milk it will only be to optimal nutrition and health requires changes in both warmed - boiling denatures camel milk. She will feed the the micro-macro contexts in which infant and young baby with a bottle. When the baby is seven days old, she will start giving boiled water with sugar and will use a feeding child feeding and health seeking decisions are made bottle. She will continue with this feeding regiment until the and implemented. next pregnancy. Becoming pregnant will determine the total breastfeeding duration. The study also recommends participatory dissemina- One-breast aside practice: This is the practice of breastfeed- tion of the study ﬁndings, training, advocacy and active ing the child on one breast (either right or left) while the other involvement of key community change agents (religious, is left untouched for the husband to be cuddling. According to Samey this is only practised as tradition of isolated families- not traditional and other local community leaders, NGOs, all. The belief is that the milk from this breast shifts to the other TBA and CHWs), caregivers and their critical networks, breast and even the baby rejects this breast if offered. The milk in generating solutions for the challenges highlighted. In is also squeezed out and the breast is cleaned. When I asked addition, the more obvious measures to enhance access whether her it will not get sore “mastitis”? She said, from what she has learnt from her mother and sister, it will only leak for to safe water and health services are also recommended. two to three days then stop. She also admitted that she has FSAU, in collaboration with UNICEF and partners will heard that one can get feverish but it will all pass away. promote dissemination of the ﬁndings in 2008 through Samey identified diarrhoea, coughs and colds, teething regional workshops which will aim to facilitate the problems and infection of uvula as the common childhood development of appropriate action plans and response illnesses. She, however, does not have much experience with strategies. these conditions.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 31 Issued March 7, 2008 4. REGIONAL ANALYSIS

4.1 SOUTHERN REGIONS Map 14: Gedo Region 4.1.1 Gedo Region Livelihood Systems

Overview

The overall food and livelihood security situation of Gedo region for pastoral, agro- pastoral and riverine livelihoods indicate a significant improvement between July and Dec. ‘07 and recovery from the effects of the 2005/06 drought. In Gedo region, 43,000 people from all livelihood zones were identified in Humanitarian Emergency or Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis and are in need of humanitarian assistance and livelihood response. Of these about 8,000 people from Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine and Southern Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and 35,000 people from all livelihood zones, except Southern Inland Pastoral, are in LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS Acute Food and Livelihood Crises (AFLC) (Map 15 and Table 15 and 16). These AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE figures indicate a declining trend in the total number requiring assistance from Gu ’07, when 106,000 people were identified in either HE or AFLC. Of the 10,900 people identified in crisis in the riverine areas, 3,500 are in HE, while 7,600 are in AFLC. In the agro-pastoral areas a total of 7,600 are in crisis, with 4,500 in Humanitarian Emergency and 3,100 in Acute Food and Livelihood Map 15: Food Security Phase Classification - Gedo. Crisis. However, there is a significant improvement in the Dawa Pastoral and Bay/Bakool and Bardera agro-pastoral livelihood zones with a shift in the total number of people classified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis during Gu ’07 from 49,000 to 24,300 in AFLC.

Most of the rural populations in Gedo are identiﬁed as Generally Food Insecure with low resilience to crisis. Investment in productive assets such as irrigation, infrastructure, boreholes, dams, roads and other productive assets are needed to support livelihoods and decrease vulnerability to food insecurity. Interventions should also focus on structural issues related to achieving adequate food, nutrition and livelihood security, and addressing un-

southern somalia derlying causes, such as dietary diversity, access to health care, clean water, and improved health care practices. FSAU

The nutrition situation across all major livelihoods in Gedo is Critical, but stable nutrition situation across all major livelihoods in Gedo region. These results are in line with the historical nutrition trends for Gedo, which highlights sustained critical levels over the past 10 years. Currently, no nutrition early warning levels are identiﬁed in Gedo, indicating a signiﬁcant improvement from the worrying situation in the last drought of ‘06. The currently stable situation is associated with increased access to cereal and livestock products following a high cereal and cash crop production in south Gedo, ongoing livestock recovery and production and very high livestock prices that have led to improved terms of trade (goat to cereal), where by one goat fetches 250kg (5 bags) of cereal in Jan ’07. Bardera has the highest terms of trade in Southern Somalia. Effects on Livelihood Assets

Table 15: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 32 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 16: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Natural Capital: In Gedo region, the Deyr ’07 rains started in late October. The overall amount and distribution over time and space was below normal in the north of Gedo and normal in the south. Rains were limited to late Oct. and Nov. with a long dry spell in the north, while some pockets in the south continued until first week of Dec. ’07. Satellite imagery, confirmed by field reports, show southern Gedo received 100-125 mm of rainfall (80-120% of the Long Term Mean), while the north of Gedo received 40-60% of the Long Term Mean. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows that browsing and pasture conditions in most key pastoral areas remain average but deteriorating, particularly in the north of the region. As a result, a significant number of Dawa pastoralists have moved towards the southern part of the region.

Physical Capital: Although there were no floods in the past two seasons of ‘07 in the riverine areas of Gedo, the previous three consecutive seasons of flooding have severely affected Riverine infrastructure, such as river embankments, canals and irrigation resources. Road infrastructure further deteriorated due to the lack of maintenance, effects of southern somalia rain and floods, and heavy transport. This results in increased transport costs and high commodity prices. In addition, main bridges in the region, particularly in Luuq, Burdubo, and Bardera require urgent repair.

Social Capital: Local social support has weakened due to crop failure in the Riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods of north Gedo. In the southern districts, social support systems, particularly for poor riverine and agro-pastoral wealth groups in Bardera district, have strengthened during Deyr ‘07/08 as a result of normal and above normal rains. Access to zakat (obligatory provision of production to the poor) from crop production increased following a bumper harvest of Deyr crops (see Food Source section below). Due to livestock recovery, high reproduction and production in the pastoral areas the social support levels improved for poor pastoralists and agro-pastoralists and will continue to improve until June ‘08. High Camel Calving in Gedo Region, Dec. ‘07 Human Capital: There is very limited access to education for rural households in Gedo. The few available community owned schools built by international NGOs are not functioning due to lack of support to the teachers. In addition, children were either herding livestock or working on farms which limit school attendance. Privately owned schools are mainly situated in urban areas, however, teaching practices are poor. Similarly, the human health services are limited to main urban centers.

Financial Capital: In pastoral areas, signiﬁcant livestock herd size recovery was observed through high calving and kidding, improved livestock body condition and increase in milk production. In December ’07, camel, cattle and goat/ sheep herd sizes are 21%, 26% and 32% higher than April ’07 ﬁgures respectively. The body condition of all livestock species are average and production and reproduction is considered high due to three consecutive seasons of normal and above normal rains and subsequent improvement of rangeland and water access conditions. Livestock herd recovery is improving due to high kidding/calving rates for camel, cattle and sheep/goats and improved milk availability and accessibility. Camel herd sizes have recovered from the drought loss and are above the baseline, however, cattle and sheep/goats require several normal seasons to reach baseline herd size. Given the bumper cereal harvest in the south of the region, cereal stock availability will improve for the majority of agro-pastoral and riverine communities. The exception of poor and part of the middle wealth groups in Garbaharey, Luuq, Dolow and Belethawo districts who have poor crop production from Deyr ’07/8.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 33 Issued March 7, 2008 Effects on Livelihood Strategies In Gedo region, agro-pastoralists rely primarily on their own production of cereals to cover the bulk of their food needs (50-65%) which are supplemented by food purchases (35-45%) and milk and livestock products (5-10%). Under normal conditions, most agro-pastoralists rely primarily on livestock and livestock product sales as the main source of income (55-75%), but supplements to this income are in the form of crop sales (10-20%) and remittance (15-25%).

The poor agro-pastoralists have smaller livestock holdings and therefore a much smaller share of their income (10-20%) is derived from livestock and livestock product sales. They supplement their income with self employment (collection and sale of bush products, honey and dik dik sales) and employment (agricultural labour, portaging and herding) (see FSAU Baseline Proﬁles). Pastoralists in the region depend on food purchases as their main source of food (40-60%), supplemented with their own production of meat, milk and other dairy products from their livestock. Most of the income of pastoralists comes from livestock sales followed by dairy sales. Poor pastoralists supplement this income with small amounts of employment in herding or sales of bush production, such as resin. Figure 24: Deyr Maize and Sorghum Production in Food Sources: Food access from own production in Gedo 1995 - 2007 southern Gedo in agro-pastoral and riverine areas was estimated at 15,020 MT (291% of PWA) with maize and sorghum production estimated 149% and 415% of PWA respectively. However, 97% of the production is from Bardheera and Burdhubo / Garbaharey districts, while the northern districts contributed only 3% of the total cereal production. The crop failure in the northern part of the region is due to poor rains, poor irrigation infrastructure, long term insecurity, and fear of ﬂoods. Lack of agricultural support in the region and long term food aid intervention has also discouraged farmers to cultivate crops (Figure 24). Figure 25: Gedo, Bardera, Local Goat Price Trends

Middle and better-off wealth groups in the riverine areas who are using pumps for irrigation harvested 3,590 MT of maize improving their access to income from both cereal and cash crop sales (onion and tomato, banana, mangoes, lemon and tobacco), and at the same time providing labour income and cereal to the poor groups. southern somalia There has been improved access to milk and ghee production in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas due to high kidding/calving in Deyr ’07/8. High livestock prices due to improved body and rangeland conditions, and improved pastoral and agro-pastoral has improved household in- Figure 26: Gedo, Bardera, Sorghum Price Trends comes and purchasing power.

Market Purchases: Cereal purchases among the riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods in the region have been high but remained stable in the south over the past four months (Oct. ’07 to Jan. ’08). In the north, purchases have increased over the last ﬁve cropping seasons due to low cereal production. Despite the low production in the north, high production in the south improved the current cereal availability of the region.

Income Sources: In north Gedo, crop failure due to poor rains limited access to agricultural labor opportunities and restricted income from crop sales (see Food Source section above). Normal and above normal Deyr rains in the riverine and agro-pastoral areas of south Gedo has improved access to agricultural employment for the poor and expanded income from crop sales. In addition, some of the middle and all better-off riverine households are beneﬁting from production and income from other cash crops, such as onion, tomato, banana, mangoes, lemon and tobacco.

For pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods, livestock prices (all species) remain high across the markets since Janu- ary and are signiﬁcantly higher than the 5-year average prices (Figure 25). Local goat prices in Luuq and Bardera

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 34 Issued March 7, 2008 markets show a signiﬁcant increase between Jan. ‘07 and Jan. ’08 (from SoSh 297,500 to SoSh 450,000 in Luuq and from SoSh 330,000 to SoSh 500,000 in Bardera). Cattle prices followed a similar trend in both markets over the same period, i.e. 144% and 63% higher than 5-year January averages, respectively. The ongoing livestock recovery and high calving and kidding improved the production and income from milk sales, with high prices for all wealth groups of pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Camel milk prices rose by 23% between July ’07 and Jan. ’08 in Bardera market and were over 68% higher in Jan ’08 than the 5-year Jan. average (2003 - 2007).

The price of sorghum price in Luuq district (Gedo north) doubled between July ’07 and Jan. ‘08, from SoSh 2,000 to SoSh 4,500 due to the cereal crop failure, and reduced amounts of food aid. Despite the Deyr‘07/8 bumper cereal harvest in the south of the region, the sorghum price in Bardera (Gedo south), although much lower, has also doubled between July ’07 and Jan ‘08 (from SoSh 1,000 to SoSh 2,000) (Figure 26).

In Luuq district, terms of trade between sorghum and local quality goat decreased 57% (from 231kg to 100kg/head) between July ’07 and January ’08, and was 56% lower than the 5-year January average (225kg/head). Similarly, terms of trade in Bardera decreased 43% over the same time period (from 437.5kg to 250kg/head), but is 11% higher than 5-year January average (226kg/head).

Livestock prices have increased throughout the markets of the region. In Gedo local goat prices increased between July ’07 and Jan ’08 (from SoSh 437,500 to SoSh 500,000) (an increase of 14%) and is 52% higher than of Jan ’07. Terms of trade is the lowest since Jan. ’07 due to high cereal price increases. However, Bardera has the highest terms of trade in Somalia. (See terms of trade graph). Cross border trade between Somalia and Kenya has improved despite the ban on livestock population movement. Cattle prices in Bardera and Luq have increased in Jan ’08 by 185% (from SoSh1,625,000 to SoSh3,000,000) and 143% (from SoSh1,200,000 to SoSh1,712,500) respectively when compared Jan ’07. southern somalia Coping Strategies: The coping strategies employed by poor riverine and agro-pastoral groups are: access to income from agricultural labour in the riverine cash crop farms, increase in the number of sellable animals, the increased sale of livestock products, and the increased collection of bush products, such as construction and energy materials used in urban areas.

Nutrition Situation

Gedo Pastoral Livelihoods Nutrition Situation The overall nutrition situation in the pastoral livelihoods in Gedo remains Critical, and has not indicated any significant change over the past six months (since Post Gu ’07). Reported high rates of morbidity, poor feeding and care practices however, continue to aggravate the nutrition situation in the region. In addition, ongoing risk of conflict and poor infrastructure has constrained humanitarian services in the region. Therefore the nutrition situation is classified as Critical in Gedo pastoral areas, and is expected to remain stable for the coming months. Figure 27: Trends in levels of Acute malnutrition The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: 1995-2007 Gedo Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) • Nutrition Assessments: A recent nutrition assessment (since Gu ‘07) was not conducted in Gedo due to access issues. • Rapid Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment: A rapid MUAC assessment (FSAU, Dec 2007), conducted among nine pastoral villages in Gedo, recorded a total of 12.5% (N=415) of the sample as acutely malnourished (MUAC<12.5 cm), and 0.5% as severely malnourished (MUAC<11 cm or oedema) indicating a Critical nutrition situation. • Selective Feeding Centres: Although it is very difficult to interpret due to the insecurity interrupting programme delivery and recent changes to a community based approach to treating these children, admissions of severely malnourished children remain high in certain areas in Gedo with lower admissions in others. Further concerns relate to neighbouring selective feeding centres in Mandera, Kenya, where recent increases in admission of children from northern Gedo are being reported. This is thought to be linked to the recent Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) outbreak in northern Gedo. Increasing numbers (though still inadequate) of humanitarian actors are attempting to address the treatment of moderate malnutrition through supplementary feeding programmes even though this has been constrained by civil insecurity and poor infrastructure. • Health Information System: Numbers of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level indicates a high number of malnourished children (>10%) with more or less stable trends in Gedo. The health facilities con-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 35 Issued March 7, 2008 tinue to report high morbidity rates, but in line with Figure 28: Trends in Health Facilities, Aug-Oct 2007 expected seasonal trends from diarrhoea, suspected (HIS), Gedo malaria and acute respiratory tract infection, possibly exacerbated by the increased exposure to water borne diseases due to the rains. Insecurity and access issues have been considered while interpreting these ﬁgures (Figure 28).

Agro-pastoral Livelihoods in Gedo Regions The overall nutrition situation among Gedo agro-pastoralists does not indicate any significant change over the last 6 months, with some indicators showing an improvement, some deterioration while others are unchanged. Therefore the nutrition situation in this agro-pastoral livelihood is classified as Critical, and is expected to remain stable in the coming months, due to continued poor access to health services, sub-optimal child feeding and care practices, and reduced humanitarian and livelihood support. The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: • Rapid Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment: A rapid MUAC assessment (FSAU, Dec 2007) conducted among five agro-pastoral villages in Gedo recorded a total of 15.8% (N=322) of the sample as acutely malnourished, and 1.2% as severely malnourished (MUAC<11 cm or oedema) indicating a persistent Critical nutrition situation. • Selective Feeding Centres: In general selective feeding programme data is not regular since services are often interrupted and access is limited by civil conflict and poor road accessibility. Therefore results can be difficult to interpret in such a context. • Health Information System: Numbers of acutely malnourished children screened at the health centre level indicate a general decrease in the last three months of August to October 2007 in Gedo agro-pastoral MCHs. In addition morbidity patterns are in line with expected seasonal trends such as diarrhoea, suspected malaria and acute respiratory tract infection and possibly exacerbated by the increased exposure to water borne diseases due to rains (Figure 28).

Gedo Riverine Livelihood Zones The overall nutrition situation in Gedo riverine livelihoods has remained Critical over the last six months, but indicates significant improvement compared to the Very Critical situation during the past Deyr ’06/07. This improvement is mainly associated with increased cereal production, the availability of local job opportunities, fishing in the Desheks, availability of wild fruits, and considerable humanitarian activity in the area over the past six months. The riverine areas, still, however, remain vulnerable and face a Critical nutrition situation given the high risk of flooding; in addi-

southern somalia tion to poor health, water and sanitation services, and poor social support networks. Therefore, the nutrition situation in Gedo riverine populations is classiﬁed as Critical.

The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: • Rapid Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment: A rapid MUAC assessment (FSAU, Dec 2007), conducted among four riverine villages in Gedo, recorded a rate of 15.1% (N=231) of the sampled children as acutely malnourished, and 1.3% as severely malnourished (MUAC<11 cm or oedema) indicating a persistent Critical nutrition situation. • Selective Feeding Centres: Some information on selective feeding programs is available in the region but services are often interrupted and limited by civil conflict and poor road accessibility. Therefore regular admission trend data is not available, even though what is available still indicates significant numbers of severely malnourished children being identified. However, this data needs to be interpreted with caution given interruptions of accessing selective feeding programmes and health centres.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 36 Issued March 7, 2008 4.1.2 Lower and Middle Juba

Overview

In the Juba regions, three consecutive seasons of normal rains since Deyr ’06 led to Map 16: Juba Regions improved crop and rangeland conditions. As a result these regions have experienced Livelihood Systems a remarkable recovery in food, livelihood and nutrition security. In addition to the favorable climatic conditions, sustained humanitarian response and livelihood sup- JUBA VALLEY port over the last three seasons has enhanced the pace of asset recovery, especially herd size. However, the crop dependent districts of Jamame and Kismayo (Lower Juba), where Deyr ‘07/08 rains were well below average, face another season of crop failure. It is estimated that 15,000 people in riverine communities in these two districts are identiﬁed to be in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) situation and are in need of immediate life saving interventions. In both Middle and Lower Juba a total of 95,000 people in the poor and middle wealth groups are identiﬁed to be in Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. Of the 80,000

people who are identiﬁed in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, 20,000 people LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS are in Middle Juba while 60,000 are in Lower Juba. These people need livelihood RIVERINE support interventions in order to prevent assets stripping and to help them recover their livelihood assets. This is a signiﬁcant reduction (32% lower) in the number of people that are in need of humanitarian support since Gu ’07 (Table 17 and 18).

Although 21% of the rural population and 19% of the Map 17: Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation - Juba. toatal population is in HE and AFLC, the majority are

classiﬁed as Generally Food Insecure (GFI). There is southern somalia a need to improve the resilience of these communities to future shocks by investing in livelihood assets, and addressing underlying causes by improving access to health care, clean water, education, and health care practices. In addition, interventions are needed to rehabilitate physical and productive infrastructure, such as river embankment, irrigation systems, and roads.

The nutrition situation in the riverine areas is Critical. Although the Global Acute Malnutrition rate declined from Critical to Serious levels in Deyr ‘07/08 from Gu ’07, Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) rates still remain above the emergency threshold of 4%. Of concern is the FSAU high proportion of kwashiorkor cases which contribute to the elevated SAM rates of over 60% of cases, which is unique to the riverine communities. Malaria is a public health concern in Juba regions with 13% - 16% of the sample population in riverine, pastoral and agro-pastoral communities testing positive to malaria during the nutrition assessments conducted in Dec. ‘07. In pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods on the other hand, the global acute malnutrition level remained serious but stable.

Table 17: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 37 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 18: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Overall rainfall performance in terms of distribution and intensity is good throughout the region. Compared to the long term mean, the region received 180% - 300% of normal rainfall for the period Oct. - Dec. ’07. However, rainfall was poorly distributed in coastal areas and the agricultural riverine areas of Jamame and north Kismayo (see climate section). Pasture and browsing conditions in most of the region is good and are sufﬁcient to support livestock until the next rainy Gu season (April – June ’08). Water is available in the communal water catchments, bore holes, shallow wells, ﬂood recessional areas (dhesheks) and the Juba River, and are expected to continue supporting both livestock and human populations through the dry Jilaal season. However, water shortages will persist in pastoral areas and agro-pastoral villages in Jamame district and north of Kismayo and in the Kenya-Somalia border area of Afmadow and Badade districts where both shallow wells and bore hole water are salty and water catchments are dry. The price for 20 litres of potable water is 7,000 - 10,000 So,Sh and is expected to increase.

Abnormal migration toward riverine areas has been re- southern somalia ported. In other areas, livestock migration is normal and remains within the region. Heavy destruction of vegetation through charcoal burning is going on in the regions particularly districts close to Kismayo’s main port and other smaller natural ports. An endemic Trypansomiasis (Tsetse Fly) in Hola-Wajir valley of Badhadne district and dheshek areas of Juba River basin has negatively impacted livestock production and reproduction. The presence of tse tse fly in those areas has prevented livestock from utilizing the best green vegetation. Medium Camel Calving, Afmadow, Lower Juba, Dec. ’07 Physical Capital: Recurrent floods have destroyed the bridges, culverts and irrigation canals of Juba regions. Use of heavy transport trucks and nearly two decades without maintenance of feeder roads has worsened the road infrastructure. Civil insecurity, particularly along the tarmac road linking Kismayo and Lower Shebelle region, with increased road blocks, illegal levies and disruption of commodity flows has increased commodity prices. Limited river embankment breakages were repaired in Sakow and Bu’ale, but most breakages remain open and the primary canals for the three main projects (Faanoole, Mugambo and Juba Sugar project) continue to be silted. The result is a reduction in water carrying capacity which causes the riverine areas to be more susceptible to floods. Good Established Sorghum at Sakow Agro-pastoral, Southern inland pastoralists’ water catchments do not Middle Juba, Dec. ’07

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 38 Issued March 7, 2008 hold water for extended periods of time due to the sandy soil. Poor households in these areas are unable to pay for expensive water from boreholes where the majority is not recommended for human consumption due to high concentration of salt and other minerals.

Social Capital: Normally riverine areas are more susceptible to the seasonal shocks and stresses as their economy and livelihoods are eroded by repeated ﬂooding and droughts. Jamame and Kismayo riverine areas were affected by severe maize crop failure due to poor rainfall while Sakow riverine farms were destroyed by ﬂoods which have limited the social support mechanisms. Hunting is the main source of meat for poor households of Lower Juba pastoral and agro-pastoral as it’s widely accessible. Poor agro-pastoralists and pastoralists have access to (loan) lactating animals (Irmaan). In addition, there has been effective humanitarian aid such as food aid, health services and cash for work support into the Juba regions between July – Dec. 07.

Human Capital: Overall attendance in the Juba regions secular and Koranic schools remained stable over the last three months, however, riverine and agro-pastoral areas of Jamame and north Kismayo show a declining trend. Sanguni riverine village in Kismayo of Lower Juba region had shown a declining trend in Dec. ’07 to 50 children (37 boys and 13 girls) which is 37% lower when compared to July ’07 school attendance. Both MSF and Mercy Corps opened TFC and IPD/OPD at Jamame and this had improved health services of the area, however the rest of the region has very limited access to health services. Both World Vision and UNICEF built primary schools at several villages but very few are functioning due to no support to the teachers. Figure 29: Deyr Cereal Production in Lower Juba Financial Capital: Jamame and Kismayo districts had a Region (1995-2007) crop failure and in Sakow ﬂoods destroyed the maize and sesame crop. Jilib and Buale riverine areas planted more sesame than maize. Increased demand from the Emirates

has motivated farmers to plant sesame. Sesame produc- southern somalia tion is estimated at 4,320 MT of which 17% is from Lower Juba region and 83% from Middle Juba region. This has improved cash income (1kg of sesame is 10,000 So, Sh) and provided employment opportunities. Similarly, crop production in the riverine and agro-pastoral areas of Middle Juba increased by 200% and 181% of 5-year Deyr average levels and PWA. Lower Juba cereal production, however, decreased by 69% and 35% of 5-year Figure 30: Deyr Cereal Production Middle Juba Region Deyr average levels and PWA respectively. This low (1995-2007) cereal production in Lower Juba region will contribute to 35,00035355,000 000000 0

the cereal price increase and reduction in the purchasing 30,0000 power. The high demand from Dubai has meant increased 25,000,000, 0 SorghumSorghughughuhum charcoal production throughout the region and the price MaizeMaizzee PWA (1(1995-2006)( 995-2006)) of this commodity doubling. 20,00020,022000,00,0,000 0000000 T

MT 15,0001515505,0 00000

In pastoral and agro-pastoral areas, the livestock body 10,0000 condition is above average due to normal Gu ’07 rainfall performance followed by good Deyr ’07 rainfall perfor- 5,0005,05,,000 0 mance. Livestock herd sizes continue to recover from 0 199519 1996191996 19971991919999 19981999898 1999119999 200020022000 2001220020 001001 20220020202202 20032 200000030033 2004200400004 20052020055 2006200000060066 2007007000077 the 2006 drought. Camels are at baseline level, sheep YearYeaeaearaarr and goats will maintain baseline levels during Gu ’08 while cattle require three more normal seasons to recover. Livestock prices increased throughout the markets of the region. In Juba regions, local quality goats have increased from SoSh 341,425 in July ’07 to SoSh 563,167 in Dec ’07 (an increase of 65%) and 108% higher than Dec ’06. Cross border trade between Somalia and Kenya continues despite the ban on livestock population movement. The price of cattle has reached an all time high (SoSh 3,251,750/head) in Dec ’07.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

In Lower and Middle Juba regions, there are three main livelihood systems 1) Pastoralists (cattle with sheep/goats Boat carrying Export Charcoal at Kismayo Port, and camel with sheep/goats), 2) agro-pastoralists (cattle Lower Juba Regions, Dec. ’07

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 39 Issued March 7, 2008 or camel plus rainfed maize or sorghum) and 3) riverine (maize and cash crop farmers). The main food sources for riverine and agro-pastoral areas is own crop production (50-60%), followed by market purchase (35-45%), and gifts. Pastoral communities depend primarily on market purchase and their own livestock production which accounts for 60-75% and 25-35% of their annual food requirements, respectively. Most of the income from the riverine agriculturalists in a normal year comes from self-employment and employment, while agro-pastoralists have relatively diversi- ﬁed income sources. For poor households, 35-55% of annual income is derived from employment/self-employment activities, while 55-75% comes from livestock and livestock product sales. Cattle and camel pastoralist, irrespective of their wealth, earn 65-85% of their annual income from livestock and livestock product sales, supplemented by petty trade and or employment.

Food Sources: Riverine communities of Middle Juba Figure 31: Juba Region Local Quality Cattle Prices have recovered slightly from three successive flooding Trends (SoSh) seasons that destroyed most of the cropped areas and reduced both cereal and cash crop production. During Gu ’07, riverine cereal production was the highest since Gu ’01. The expected Deyr ‘07/08 off-season maize crop is negligible, but an estimated 1,600 MT of sesame will be produced. This will significantly improve purchasing power and access to food at the household level. Lower Juba riverine which is the main maize supplier of the region had a crop failure this season. Overall, maize production in Deyr ‘07/08 is only 560MT of which 35MT was contributed by the riverine areas and is 47% of PWA. However, Gu ’07 maize production was good (3,025MT Figure 32: Juba Region Maize Prices Trends (SoSh) and 52% of PWA). In addition, fruits, vegetables, fishing opportunities at desheks and wild foods have further improved food diversity, livelihoods and the nutrition situation of the riverine.

In rainfed agro-pastoral areas, Gu ’07 sorghum production was poor and was estimated at 11% of PWA average, however, Deyr ‘07/08 sorghum production was the highest ever recorded (5,880 MT and 233% of PWA). This increase is attributed to the good rainfall and low occurrence of pests in Middle Juba, which is the main

southern somalia sorghum producer and supplier of the Jubas. As a result of good production, overall cereal stock availability at Figure 33: Juba Region Average Monthly Terms of the household level has improved. Trade: Cereal to Goat and Labour

For pastoral communities, the good to average livestock body conditions and production, and continuity, cintinu- ing livestock herd size recovery, high livestock prices, improved cross border trade, as well as favorable terms of trade are all contributing to improved access to food.

Market Purchases: Riverine farmers and Lower Juba agro-pastoralists currently rely on cereal purchases, due to their depleted Gu ’07 cereal stocks and Deyr ‘07/08 crop failure. In contrast, Middle Juba riverine and agro- pastoral areas are relying on own cereal production as they harvested the highest cereal production ever recorded. Over the last three years, especially since May 2003, the seasonal changes in maize prices in Juba Valley have been more remarkable and reached the highest price levels since June ‘04, primarily due to the past three consecutive seasons of very low and decreasing Deyr maize production.

Cereal market prices in Juba Valley have fluctuated dramatically, with a record peak in June ’04 (4,765 SoSh/kg), and the Dec ’07 maize price at SoSh 4,334kg. (See FSAU Market Update, Dec ’07). Maize prices in Juba Valley increased 89% between July and December ‘07, however, it’s expected to decline in Middle Juba significantly with a slight decline in Lower Juba in the coming two months of February and March ’08. Projected off-season maize production will be insignificant as most of the late planted crop is sesame and is not expected to reduce cereal prices, but will improve the purchase power of riverine households.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 40 Issued March 7, 2008 The effect of high and ﬂuctuating cereal prices, compounded by low income options, forced the households of the poor and part of middle wealth groups of Lower Juba agro-pastoral and riverine areas to practice charcoal production in order to meet high expenses on cereals. As Middle Juba region harvested the highest sorghum production, poor households will be able to purchase cheap sorghum. In addition, prices are high dues to a number of factors, including 1) uncertainty of security 2) Disruption of Bakara Market negatively affected other main markets of the region, 3) poor road infrastructure especially the road linking to Middle Shebelle region which reduced trade ﬂows 4) increased fuel prices increased transportation costs 5) devaluation of Somali shilling and 6) increased road blocks and increased TFG port levy tariffs and taxations.

Between June to Dec. ‘07, all key import commodity prices increased signiﬁcantly in Juba Valley: sugar and petrol increased 7% and 14% respectively, while vegetable oil, rice and wheat ﬂour increased by 73% , 43% and 63%, respectively (Figure 20, Market Section).

Income Sources:Income in the riverine communities (except Jamame and Kismayo) has improved due to an increase of cereal and cash crops (sesame and fruits). The Deyr ‘07/08 and off-season sesame in March ’08 will provide agro- labor opportunities for the poor and income for the sesame producers (See Food Source section above). In the Lower Juba riverine, the main income for the poor is from charcoal production and laboring in the main towns of Kismayo, Jilib and Afmadow. Although Lower Juba agro-pastoral production has been poor, the purchasing power for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists is improving in light of the continuity of livestock herd size recovery, improved production, high livestock prices and a decline in favorable terms of trade due to high cereal prices.

In respect to the improvement of livestock body conditions and productivity, livestock prices in Juba regions have continued to increase and recorded all time high in Dec ’07. Cattle prices increased by 61% between July ’07 to Dec ’07 and are 153% higher than the 5-year Dec. average (‘02-06). At the same time of the year, goat prices have

increased by 65%, which is 146% higher than 5-year Dec. average (02-06). The prices of local quality camel followed southern somalia a parallel trend with an increase of 39% between July and Dec. ’07 (SoSh 4,582,867/head to SoSh 6,365,699/head) and are 111% higher than 5-year Dec. average (SoSh 3,011,346). Since livestock and livestock product sales are the main source of income for both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the region, these price increases improve their purchase power and access to food and income signiﬁcantly.

Although terms of trade between livestock and cereal have declined over the last year, it still remains favorable to herders. The decline in terms of trade is attributed to the unusual increase of cereal prices. Livestock prices, especially cattle, continue to increase due to good livestock body condition coupled with the increased demand from Garissa cattle market which has kept ToT favouable.

Coping Strategies: The main coping strategies currently employed in Juba regions include increased charcoal production, increased cash crop sales, increased milk sales, and purchasing cheaper sorghum rather than expensive maize. Other strategies reported include increased ﬁshing from desheks and rivers, consumption of fruit and wild food, and increased social support (zaka) to poor households.

Nutrition Situation Figure 34: Trends and Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001 to 2007, Middle and Lower Juba Nutrition The overall nutrition situation in the pastoral livelihood of Surveys, (<-2 Z scores WHZ and/ or oedema) Juba regions remains Serious, and has not indicated any significant change over the past six months (since Post Gu’07). Reported high rates of morbidity, poor feeding and care practices however, continue to aggravate the nutrition situation in these regions. In addition ongoing risk of conflict and poor infrastructure has constrained humanitarian services in the regions. Therefore the nutrition situation is classified as Serious in the Middle and Lower Juba pastoral areas and is expected to remain stable for the coming months.

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: A nutrition assessment conducted in December 2007 by FSAU and partners in the Middle and Lower Juba pastoral livelihoods, reported a Serious nutrition situation with a GAM rate of 14.1% (11.3 – 16.9), a SAM rate of 2.2% (1.3-3.2) including 12 cases (1.2%: 0.6-1.9) of oedema; and a CMR of 0.93 (0.54 – 1. 31), with under ﬁve years mortality rate of 1.76 (0.62-2.90). Both mortality rates are within the acceptable levels. These results are consistent with the most recent assessments conducted in June 07 (Figure 34.)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 41 Issued March 7, 2008 • Sentinel Site Data: Sentinel sites surveillance assess- Figure 35: Trends in Levels of Acutely Malnourished ments conducted in the last 12 months in Juba regions Children in Sentinel Sites by Livelihood Zone, have indicated high levels (5-20%) but decreasing Lower Juba, Jan ’06 - Sept ’07 trends in the last two rounds, especially the most recent round in September which indicated <10% of the children assessed as acutely malnourished (Figure 35). Dietary diversity has also improved in the Juba regions with >90% of sampled households consuming more than three food groups in most of the sites, mainly sourced from purchases (cereal) and own (milk) production • Health Information System: Low proportions of acutely malnourished children (<10%) is reported in Juba pastoral health facilities since July 2007 in pastoral health facilities. The health facilities continue to report high morbidity rates, but in line with Figure 36: Trends in Levels in Acute Malnutrition in Health facilities, Aug-Oct 2007 (HIS) Juba expected seasonal trends from diarrhoea, suspected Region Livelihood Zones malaria and acute respiratory tract infection possibly exacerbated by the increased exposure to water borne diseases due to the rains. Insecurity and access issues have been considered while interpreting these ﬁgures (Figure 36).

Juba Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone

The overall nutrition situation in Juba agro-pastoralists does not indicate any signiﬁcant change over the last 6 months, with some indicators showing an improvement, as well as some deterioration while others are unchanged. Therefore the nutrition situation in these agro-pastoral livelihoods is classiﬁed as Serious and is expected to remain stable in the coming months due to continued poor access to health services, sub optimal child feeding and care practices, and reduced humanitarian and livelihood support.

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: The most recent assessments in the Juba agro-pastoral livelihood in December 2007

southern somalia reported a Serious nutrition situation with a GAM rate of 14.7% (10.9-18.5) and a SAM rate of 2.6% (1.4-3.9) including 12 cases (1.3%: 0.5-2.0) of oedema. The CMR and U5MR were 0.80 (0.45 – 1.16) and 1.13 (0.49 – 1.78) respectively; both the CMR and U5MR are below the alert thresholds indicating acceptable levels. These results do not indicate any signiﬁcant change from the most recent previous assessment conducted in June (Figure 34). • Sentinel Sites Data: Trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from the sentinel sites in the agro-pastoral areas of Juba indicate a decreasing trend in the last two rounds from February to September 2007, the levels however remain high (>10%) but lower compared to the same period of time the previous year. • Rapid Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment: A rapid MUAC assessment (FSAU, Dec 2007) conducted among the IDP populations in Kismayo recorded 11.7% (N=1223) of children 1-5 years with MUAC <12.5 cm, therefore acutely malnourished, also highlighting a Critical nutrition situation. • Health Information System: Numbers of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level indicate high and stable levels in Juba. In addition morbidity patterns are in line with expected seasonal trends such as diarrhoea, suspected malaria and acute respiratory tract infection and possibly exacerbated by the increased exposure to water borne diseases due to rains (Figure 36).

Juba Riverine Livelihood Zone The overall nutrition situation in the Juba riverine livelihood has remained Critical over the last six months, but indicates signiﬁcant improvement compared to the Very Critical situation during the past Deyr ’06/07 situation. In spite of the GAM level of 15%, a high number of kwashiorkor cases, however, indicates a sustained Critical nutrition situation. This is in addition to poor health, water and sanitation services and a poor social support network.

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: The most recent nutrition assessment conducted in this livelihood was in December 2007 in Juba when a GAM rate of 13.7% (10.0-17.3) with a SAM rate of 4.4% (2.5-6.6) were reported. A high number (n=23) of Oedema cases (2.6%; CI: 1.1-4.0) were reported constituting more than half the total number of the severely malnourished children, indicating a Critical nutrition situation, despite GAM rates being lower

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 42 Issued March 7, 2008 than the rates of >15%, which were reported in the last six months in Gu 2007 (Figure 36). • Sentinel Sites Data: Trends in levels of acutely malnourished children from the sentinel sites in the riverine areas of Juba indicate a decreasing trend in the last two rounds from February to September 2007; the levels are significantly lower compared to the same period of time the previous year. • Selective Feeding Centres: Some information on selective feeding programs are available in the areas but services are often interrupted and limited by civil conflict and poor road accessibility. Therefore regular admission trend data is not available even though what is available does still indicate significant numbers of severely malnourished children being identified. However, this data needs to be interpreted A Child being Assessed using MUAC, FSAU Nov ’07 with caution given interruptions of accessing selective feeding programmes and health centres. • Health Information System: Numbers of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level in Juba riverine populations indicates a fluctuating trend over the last three months, increasing significantly in November (>15%) and dropping again in December (<10%), but remained generally stable in the previous months in line with seasonal morbidity patterns such as diarrhea, suspected malaria and acute respiratory tract infection possibly exacerbated by the increased exposure to water borne diseases due to rains (Figure 36). southern somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 43 Issued March 7, 2008 4.1.3 Bay and Bakool

Overview

The overall food security situation in Bakool region is deteriorating. Although the Map 18: Sorghum Belt Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production for the region is 165% of PWA and 114% of 5-year Livelihood Systems average (’02 – 06), poor rainfall and associated crop failure was recorded in parts of SORGHUM BELT Rabdure, Elberde, northern Wajid and southern parts of Tieglow and Huddur districts. Water, pasture and browse conditions deteriorated resulting in low milk production and livestock migration towards Bay region and across the border to Somali State of Ethiopia. Zakat from cereal production has declined in due to crop failure in the affected areas. Poor agro-pastoral households have low purchasing power due to poor cereal production, limited access to job opportunities, low milk production for sale and increasing local cereal and imported prices. As a result, poor households have to sell more livestock as a coping mechanism, which will lead to a reduction of herd sizes. In contrast in Bay region, the overall food security condition of pastoral

and agro-pastoral livelihoods is normal in the region due to good rainfall. Excep- LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS tions are the agro-pastoral of Berdale and Mowlimaad of Baidoa district bordering RIVERINE with Wajid and Hudur districts. These districts experienced two consecutive crop failures due to very poor seasonal rains. Overall cereal production in Bay is 129% of PWA and 105% of 5-year average, and there is good availability of water, pasture and the overall livestock condition and production is good.

In Bakol region, the agro-pastorals in Rabdure, Elberde Map 19: Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation Bay and and parts of Wajid, Hudur and Tieglow districts are the Bakool Regions hardest hit with 7,000 people in Humanitarian Emer- gency (HE) and 92,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). This is a 21% increase from the total number of people previously in AFLC or HE (from July – Dec. ’07). In Bay region, the situation of agro-pastoralists in Berdale and Mowlimaad in Baidoa district deteriorated due to consecutive seasons of very FSAU poor crop production. The food security situation of most agro-pastoralists in Berdale and Mowlimaad, who were Generally Food Insecure (GFI) between July and Dec

southern somalia ’07 has now deteriorated and is currently in Acute Food and Liveihood Crisis (AFLC), with 24,000 people. Ad- ditionally, the food security situation of the pastoralists in Bay region or 4,000 people, who were in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) during July – Dec. ’07, has improved and is in the usual Generally Food Insecure Phase (GFI), due to the improved livestock conditions and production as well as the recovery of their livestock herd size (Table 19 and 20).

Table 19: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 44 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 20: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Although there are over 120,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and Humanitarian Emergency (HE) in Bay and Bakool, the majority of the remaining rural population are General Food Insecure (GFI). These people remain vulnerable to shocks that can negatively impact on their food security and livelihood status. There is a need for designing and implemting interventions to improve stability and resilience of livelihood systems and in particular addressing the key causes to vulnerability. These include the lack of investment in physical infrastructure including roads and water supply schemes. There is also a need for agricultural support programmes to improve productivity and there is limited access to health care services. Investment in livelihood assets is critical (See below) to reduce vulnerability to food insecurity. southern somalia The overall nutrition situation in most parts of Bay and Bakool regions remains Critical, indicating a persistence of a similar situation as recorded in Gu ’07. The only exception is Wajid and Huddur districts where the nutrition situation is classiﬁed as Serious showing some slight improvement in Wajid and a stable situation in Huddur since the Gu ’07 analysis. The persistent Critical nutrition situation in both regions is attributed to multiple factors primarily high morbidity and public health related factors such as exposure to diseases, poor access to water, sanitation and basic health services, and a poor social care environment.

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Field reports indicate that Deyr ‘07/08 rainfall performance in terms of amount, intensity, and distribution is mixed in Bay and Bakool regions and is conﬁrmed by FSAU/FEWS.NET satellite imagery. The agro- pastoral livelihood of Rabdure, Elberde and parts of Wajid, Hudur and Tieglow districts in Bakool region received below normal rains (20 – 60% of Long Term Mean ); Berdale and Mowlimaad in north of Baidoa district in Bay region also received 40 -60% of LTM. However, the rest of both regions have near normal or above normal Deyr season rains (80 – 120% of LTM – see Climate Sector). In the poor rainfall areas, poor crop production or crop failure, shortage of water and poor pasture and browse were recorded leading to opportunistic livestock migration from Bakol to Bay and Somalia State of Ethiopia, in order to avoid further deterioration with the on-set of the Jilal (dry) season. Collection of bush products, tree cutting for charcoal and lime production by poor households and part of middle households are on the increasing trend.

Physical Capital: Road and transport infrastructure are in poor condition and deteriorating following over a decade of no infrastructural rehabilitation services. The poor condition of roads has increased prices of both local and imported food commodities and restricted trade movements. Water catchments in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods are silted, contributing to water shortages.

Social Capital: Payment of gifts and Zakat, which normally play an important role in supporting poorer households, are decreasing in the affected areas in Bakol following two consecutive seasons of crop failure (Gu ’07 and Deyr ‘07/08). In contrast, the better-off and middle agro-pastoral households in Bay region have some cereal stocks, from the Deyr ’06/07, Gu ’07 and/or the current seasonal production, which could last between ﬁve to seven months and the poor agro-pastoral households are beneﬁtting from crop Zakat. Exceptions in Bay region are poor and lower middle agro-pastoral households in Berdale and Mowlimaad in Baidoa district due to two consecutive seasons of crop failure and no available cereal stocks or carryover from previous seasonal production. In the affected areas in both regions, the debt levels of the poor households in agro-pastoral livelihood will likely to increase following the increase in cereal and imported commodities prices and limited income earning options.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 45 Issued March 7, 2008 Human Capital: Access and school attendance in both regions remains exceptionally low and few the privately owned schools are serve urban communities. No health facilities are available in the rural areas and limited are restricted to main towns.

Financial Capital: Herd sizes in all livelihood zones and all for livestock species in Deyr ‘07/08 has increased compared to April ’07. Cattle herds in southern inland pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods in both regions, however, are still below baseline levels, and will require two to three seasons to fully recover for southern inland pastoral livelihood in Bakol region. Cattle in agro-pastoral livelihood zones in both regions will regain baseline levels during the coming Gu ’08 season. Herd sizes for camel, sheep and goats for all livelihoods in both regions are increasing and have reached higher than baseline levels. Livestock body conditions and production has improved due to several good seasons leading to high livestock prices and high calving and kidding in both regions with good milk production in non-affected areas.

Analysis of cereal stock availability in Bay indicates that stocks can last between ﬁve to seven months due to good cereal production over several seasons. However, cereal stock availability is limited for the poor and lower middle agro-pastoral households in Rabdure, Elberde, parts of Wajid, Hudur, Tieglow and Berdale/Mowlimaad in Baidoa districts due to two consecutive seasonal crop production failures. Lack of labor opportunities and employment, low milk availability and sales and increasing market prices contributed to limitation of income earning options for the poor households. Poor and lower middle households will be forced to sell more livestock.

Effects of Livelihood Strategies

The main elements of food access in the two regions are own cereal and livestock production, followed by market purchases. Normally, poor agro-pastoralist households obtain 50 – 75% of annual food requirements from crop and livestock production followed by food purchases (30 – 45%). Poor households in agro-pastoral livelihoods earn 40 – 50% of their annual cash income from employment (agricultural labor, portering, herding and construction labor) and self-employment (sale of bush products and charcoal). An additional 10 – 20% of income is from the sale of livestock and livestock products (milk, ghee and hides/skins), while the rest income comes from crop production sales and remittances or gifts. Poor pastoralists obtain 50 – 60% of their annual food requirements from food purchase supplemented with own livestock products. Pastoralists derive most of their cash income from livestock and livestock products (70 – 80%).

Food Sources: Food access from own crop production is Figure 37: Trends in Deyr Cereal Production in Bakool improving for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Bay and (1995-2007) Bakool regions who are recovering from the 2005 drought due to good rainfall performance (Gu ’06, Deyr ‘06/07 and southern somalia Deyr ‘07/08) resulting in recovery of livestock and crop production, particularly sorghum. However, the poor Gu ’07 seasonal rains affected cereal production in the Bay and Bakool, followed by poor rains during Deyr ‘07/08 in Rabdure, Elberde, parts of Wajid, Hudur and Tieglow in Bakol and Berdale and Mowlimaad in Baidoa in Bay.

In contrast, the Deyr ’07/08 production considered above average is from parts of Hudur (152% of PWA), Tieglow (244% of PWA) and Wajid (61% of PWA). Additionally, carryover cereal stocks are low, therefore increasing the Figure 38: Trends in Deyr Cereal Production in Bay dependence on food purchase. Bay region experienced (1995-2007) normal and above average cereal productions for three seasons, improving availability of cereal stocks in the region and the access to Zakat for the poor households. Exceptions in Bay region are Berdale and Mowlimaad in Baodia district which experienced two consecutive cereal productions during Gu ’07 and the current Deyr ‘07/08 due to poor seasonal rains (Figure 37 and 38).

Currently, the availability of milk from all species of livestock is good in Bay and average in Bakol due to high calving and kidding rates (see livestock sector). However, milk availability is below average in the affected areas in both regions due to the consecutive poor seasonal performance.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 46 Issued March 7, 2008 Market prices continue to remain favorable for pastoralists and agro pastoralists in Bay and Bakool regions. However, signiﬁcant sorghum price increases since Jan. ’07 has resulted in declining terms of trade between local quality goat and sorghum (Figure 39).

The terms of trade between local goat and sorghum in Hudur market is 10% higher than July ’07 and 15% lower compared to 5-year average. In Baidoa, the terms of trade between local goat and sorghum is 10% and 7% higher than July ’07 and 5-year average, respectively. This has an effect on the access of food in agro-pastoral areas, poor households in Bakol region in particular (Figure 40).

The terms of trade between cereal and daily labor wage rates have also decreased signiﬁcantly in the same time frame. In Baidoa, Dec. ‘07 terms of trade for poor households was 13% (from 12.03kg to 10.45kg/daily wage rate) and 16% (from 12kg to 10.45kg/daily labor rate). Similarly in Hudur market, a term of trade is 18% and 30% lower than July ’07 and December 5-year average, respectively.

Imported food commodity prices continue to remain high in both regions due to trade disruption (due to insecurity) and devaluation of Somali Shilling against US dollar. In Hudur, wheat ﬂour and edible oil in Dec. ’07 increased 53% and 25% compared to July ’07 and 53%and 49% compared to 5-year average, respectively. In Baidoa during the same period, the prices increased 60% and 18% compared to July ’07 and 55% and 46% higher than 5-year average, respectively.

Income Sources: Average or good cereal production and Figure 39: Bay, Trends in Sorghum Prices high livestock prices have improved income options for pastoral and agro-pastoral households in Bay and parts of Bakol. Agricultural labor opportunities were average

in Bay region, with a slight improvement of labor wage southern somalia rates, while opportunities were limited in Bakol. Income from milk is average in Bay and Bakol for both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods with the exception of the affected areas. In both regions, income from honey production sales is available due to improved average vegetation cover.

Livestock prices are increasing due to improved livestock body conditions for all species. In Baidoa, for example, Figure 40: Bakool Hudur, Terms of Trade Local Goat to average local cattle prices in Dec. ’07 are 175% and 54% Cereal higher than July ’07 and 5-year average, respectively, and local goat prices in the same period are higher by 53% compared to July ’07 and 5-year average. In Hudur market, the local cattle prices are 33% higher than 5-year average and slightly higher by 3% compared to July ’07; the local goat prices are 33% higher than July ’07 and 5-year average.

Collection of bush products as a building material, tree cutting for charcoal and lime production by poor households and part of middle households are increasing trend and offering additional income options.

Market Purchases: While the sorghum price in Bay region is not as dramatic compared to the other main markets in southern Somalia, it is still 39% higher than the July ’07 price and 51% higher than the 5- year average. This is due to increased demand from neighboring regions. Similarly, Dec. ’07 sorghum price in Hudur, Bakol, is 22% and 50% higher compared to the same period, respectively. Sorghum prices are expected to continue to increase due to the demand of cereals from neighboring regions and the impact of dramatic increase of imported commodities prices.

Coping Strategies: Poor agro–pastoral and pastoral households have diverse coping mechanisms in both regions. These include increasing collection of bush products (building material and cutting trees for charcoal and lime productions), increased livestock and milk sales and reduction of number and portion of meals, and labor migration to Bay region. The collection of bush products as a coping strategy can cause environment damage. Middle and better-off pastoralists provide lactating animals and live animals as Zakat.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 47 Issued March 7, 2008 Nutrition Situation

Bay Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Qansadhere, Baidoa, Ber- Figure 41: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001- dalle, Dinsor and Burhakaba Districts) 2007 in Bay Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) The nutrition situation in all agro-pastoral zones in Bay Re- gion, from a range of indicators as presented below, is Critical. This shows a persistence of a Critical nutrition situation as recorded in post Gu ’07 and is consistent with the long term nutrition estimates for the area (Figure 41). The persistence of the Critical nutrition situation reported over the years in the entire region is attributed to interaction of multiple factors primarily morbidity, poor social care environment (breastfeeding, childcare), and public health-related factors, such as exposure to diseases, poor water and sanitation, and access to basic health services.

The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: Nutrition Assessments: The nutrition assessment conducted in November 2007 among the agro-pastoral population in Bay region recorded a GAM rate of 19.3% (15.2 – 22.8) and a SAM rate of 2.1% (0.8 – 3.6). Even though the assessment was livelihood based and therefore cannot be directly compared to the district based assessments, these results show a Critical nutrition situation that is similar to the situation recorded over the years from district based assessments in Bay region (Figure 41). • Rapid MUAC assessment: Results from rapid MUAC assessment of 500 children screened from five protracted IDP camps in Baidoa town, indicate 18% of the children assessed identified as acutely malnourished (<12.5cm or oedema) with 3% identified as severely malnourished (MUAC<11 cm or oedema). The results show a Very Critical nutrition situation among the IDP community and deterioration from the Critical levels recorded in post Gu ’07 analysis. The worsening nutrition situation may be attributed to the outbreak of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) in the town, continued arrival of new IDPs from Mogadishu, also increasing the pressure on the limited income opportunities for the displaced people in Baidoa. Frequent insecurity incidences in Baidoa town disrupt humanitarian work targeting the IDP, hence exposing them to increased risks of acute malnutrition. • Selective Feeding Centres: At least one targeted feeding centre is available in all major urban centres in all districts in Bay region, with exception of Burhakaba district which lacks such services. Access to selective feeding centres (SFC) in the region is often interrupted by insecurity, while rural populations are constrained by long distances to these centres. Data from these centres continue to show high but stable numbers of admissions into the selective feeding centres in Baidoa, Berdalle and Qansadhere district over the last three months. • Health Information System: Maternal and Child Health Centres (MCH) are located in all the major town centres

southern somalia in addition to the out reach services in Baidoa district. High but stable numbers of acutely malnourished children are being reported from screening at the health centre level in Bay Region. Baidoa MCH has, however, shown an increasing trend in the number of acutely malnourished children in the recent months. Dietary diversity: The nutrition assessment conducted in November ’07 indicated 18.3% of the assessed households in Bay agro-pastoral livelihood zone to have consumed a poorly diversified diet comprising of less than four food groups. The most frequently consumed food groups comprise of cereals, sugar, oil and milk. • Disease Trend: About 64% of the assessed agro-pastoral community children reported to be suffering from one or more communicable disease in the two weeks prior to the assessment. Rapid diagnostic test for malaria confirmed high malaria prevalence with 7.1% positive cases identified. Morbidity, diarrhoea in particular, is strongly associated with acute malnutrition in Somalia. In the November ’07 assessment among the agro-pastoral population in Bay region, only 6% and 14.5% of the assessed households were reportedly accessing safe drinking water and sanitation facilities respectively. Diarrhoea is exacerbated by poor sanitation and lack of safe drinking water. • Coverage of health programmes: Vitamin A supplementation at 55% and measles immunization at 51% from the nutrition assessment was below the international recommended coverage of 95%. Figure 42: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2001-2007 Bakool Agropastoral livelihoods (Rab Dhure, Wajid, Hud- in Bakool Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema) dur and Tieglow Districts) The nutrition situation in Bakool agropastoralists, from a range of indicators as presented below, is Critical in Rab- dure and Tieglow and Serious in Wajid and Huddur. The chronically high rates of acute malnutrition in the region (Figure 42) are attributed to frequent seasonal illnesses associated with lack of safe water, poor sanitation services and sub-optimal child care practices. Additionally, the failed crop harvest in Deyr ’07 in Rabdure and the cumulative impact of the two successive crop failures in Gu ’06 and

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 48 Issued March 7, 2008 Deyr ’06/07 in some parts of Huddur and Tieglow districts, exacerbated the situation. The relatively better nutrition (though still Serious) often recorded in Huddur and Wajid is attributed to better access to health and nutrition services in these districts provided by humanitarian agencies.

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: The three most recent nutrition assessments conducted in Bakool Region reported Serious to Critical levels of acute malnutrition. The nutrition assessment conducted in October ’07 in Wajid district by Action Contre la Faim (ACF) reported a Serious nutrition situation with a GAM rate of 14.3% (10.5 – 18.1) and SAM rate of 0.8% (0.2 – 1.5) while the nutrition assessment in Huddur district by FSAU and IMC in November 2007 recorded a GAM rate of 11.8% % (9.0 – 14.7) and SAM rate of 1.3% (0.4 – 2.2). These results indicate a Serious nutrition situation and a slight improvement in parts of Huddur and Wajid district compared with the Gu ’07 analysis where a Critical nutrition situation was reported. The improvement may be attributed to increased access to milk, reduction in AWD and provision of health and nutrition services by INGO and UN agencies. The third assessment conducted by FSAU and partners in November 2007 in the agro-pastoral population in Tieglow and Rabdure districts, reported a Critical nutrition situation with a GAM rate of 17.4% (11.3 – 23.5) and SAM rate of 3.0% (0.8 – 5.9). The results indicate a similar Critical nutrition situation as reported in Gu ’07. • Selective Feeding Centres: Bakool region is relatively well covered with selective feeding centres with Supple- mentary Feeding Programmes (SFP), Therapeutic Feeding Programmes, (TFP) and Community Based Therapeutic Care (CTC) available in all the district headquarters in the region. However, the SFP operations by WVI in Tieglow and Wajid are reportedly on hold due to insecurity and funding constraints. From available data admissions of severely and moderately malnourished children into selective feeding centres show high numbers with ﬂuctuating and increasing trends in Huddur and Rabdure districts, respectively, over the last three months. • Health Information System: Numbers of acutely malnourished children being screened at health centre level remain high and stable in Rabdure facilities while the facilities in Huddur and Tieglow report low but increas-

ing numbers of acutely malnourished children over the last three months. This further illustrates the precarious southern somalia nutrition situation in these districts. • Dietary diversity: The nutrition assessment conducted in November ’07 indicated 36.5% and 31.4% of the assessed households in Rabdure & Tieglow and Huddur district, respectively, reported to have consumed a poorly diversiﬁed diet comprising of less than four food groups. The most frequently consumed food groups comprise of cereals, sugar, oil and milk. • Disease Trend: About 49% and 43% of the assessed children in Rabdure and Tieglow and Huddur, respectively, reported to have been suffering from one or more communicable diseases in the two weeks prior to the assessment. Rapid diagnostic test for malaria conﬁrmed 5% and 3.3% positive cases of malaria in Huddur and Rabdure and Tieglow, respectively. Poor sanitation and lack of safe drinking water predispose the community to water-related illness. Morbidity, diarrhoea in particular, is associated with acute malnutrition in Somalia. In the November 2007 assessments in Huddur (50%) and (38%) of the households were reportedly accessing safe water and sanitary facilities, while in Rabdure and Tieglow only 14.3% Residents in Huddur, Bakool drawing unsafe water and 30.2% reported to access safe water and sanitary from the road for their domestic use, FSAU. facilities, respectively. Diarrhoea is exacerbated by November 2007 poor sanitation and lack of safe drinking water. (See Photo) • Coverage of health programmes: Vitamin A supplementation (at 44% and 31.3%) and measles immunization (at 45.2% and 41.1%) in Huddur district and Rabdure and Tieglow agropastoral, respectively, are well below the international recommended coverage of 95% (and 80% threshold for fair coverage).

Bakool Pastoral Livelihoods (Elberde District and parts of Rabdure) The nutrition situation in Elberde district from range of indicators is Critical indicating a persistence of similar levels recorded in previous assessment (Figure 42). The current situation, similar to other areas of Bay and Bakool, is largely explained by frequent illness, sub-optimal child care practices, in addition to the failure of Deyr ’07 rains, which has led to poor water and pasture availability and hence out-migration of livestock. This has ultimately resulted in reduced milk access, of concern given milk is the most important source of both nutrients and income to purchase other food and non-food items for pastoral communities.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 49 Issued March 7, 2008 Past and current insecurity greatly disrupts livelihood and humanitarian activities in the area and also affects access to the available health and nutrition services in the area. Given these facts, the nutrition situation in Elberde is likely to deteriorate in the coming months.

FSAU will maintain close monitoring of the situation in the district. A further point of clariﬁcation relates to the set- tled communities in Elberde and whether they actually reﬂect the predominant pastoral livelihood or perhaps relate more closely to destitute or urban poor, efforts to answer these questions will continue in 2008.

The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: Rapid MUAC assessment: Results from a rapid MUAC assessment of 500 children screened from five villages in El- berde district indicate 24.2% of the sample identified as acutely malnourished (<12.5cm or oedema) with 6% identified as severely malnourished (MUAC<11 cm or oedema). Selective Feeding Centres: There are two SFP in Elberde district one located in Elberde town and the other one in Qurajome centre. Data from these facilities show increasing numbers of admissions of acutely malnourished children in the last three months. Health Information System: High levels and increasing numbers of acutely malnourished children are being reported from the screening at the Elberde MCH. However the proportion of the acutely malnourished children is within the trends previously reported in the area. The increase reported in the SFP and HIS data in the recent months is likely attributed to the resumption of supplementary food distribution therefore encouraging increased attendance. The data, however, shows that the nutrition situation in the district is of great concern and needs constant monitoring and appropriate interventions. southern somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 50 Issued March 7, 2008 4.1.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle

Overview Map 20: Shabelle and Cowpea Belt Livelihood Systems The food security and situation of the two main riverine and agro-pastoral liveli- SHABELLE & COWPEA BELT hoods in Shabelle regions continue to be in a state of Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). In addition, there are early warning levels of Watch in the riverine and Moderate Risk in agro-pastoral areas with the likelihood of further deterioration over the next 6 months. Currently 365,000 people are identiﬁed to be in either HE and AFLC; of these, 240,000 people are in HE and 125,000 are in AFLC. About 150,000 and 69,000 of the poor and some of the middle wealth along the riverine areas of Shabelle are in HE and AFLC phases, respectively, and are in need of emergency and livelihood support. Similarly, 90,000 and 56,000 agro-pastoral of the poor and some of the middle wealth groups in both

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS Middle and Lower Shabelle regions are in the phases of HE and AFLC, respectively. PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE Two thirds of the total population affected or 240,000 people are in Lower Shabelle URBAN (85,000 in AFLC and 155,000 in HE) and one third or 125,000 people are in Middle Shabelle (39,000 in AFLC and 86,000 in HE). The civil insecurity in Mogadishu and the Shabelle region and the continuing influx of IDPs are compounding factors to the humanitarian situation of the region. IDP numbers in the region have increased 250%, from 85,200 in Aug. ’07 to 298,900 people in Jan. ’08, with 80% of the total in Lower Shabelle. Map 21: Food Security Phase Classification - Shabelle Region An estimated 34% of the total rural population in Shabelle regions is either in HE or AFLC, while the remaining southern somalia population are either Generally Food Insecure (GFI) or Food Secure (FS). There is a need to improve their resilience to reduce shocks to future hazards and to address the key underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. Key causes include the deterioration of physical infrastructure such as irrigation and road networks, as well as flood protection schemes. In addition, there is lack of control of natural resources with particular emphasis on widespread charcoal production, and limited access to health care facilities, and clean and safe water.

Below average Deyr ’07 rains in most parts of Shabelle has resulted in another season of below average crop pro- FSAU duction. The production of cereal during Deyr ‘07/08 has been one of the lowest on record in a decade and follows 4 to 5 seasons of below average production. Poor and ineffective irrigation infrastructure, such as canals, culverts, barrages, and limited inputs resulting from the high inﬂation, high input costs (fuel and tractor hour rates) and the insecurity are among the key factors contributing to the low production.

Table 21: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 51 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 22: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: The performance of Deyr ‘07/08 rains in terms of amount and distribution over time and space were mixed in Lower and Middle Shabelle (Map 3 and 4, Climate Section). Southern agro-pastoral areas of Jowhar, Wanlaweyn and Afgoye and parts of the riverine have below average to average rains of 60-120% of LTM. However, the eastern part of the regions received signiﬁcantly below average rains (0-40% of LTM), where pasture and browse conditions are exhausted. Cattle have already started moving from these areas towards the riverine and agro-pastoral areas in the west to cope with the long dry Jilaal season. As a distress coping strategy for poor riverine and agro- pastoralists, charcoal production is ongoing in the worst affected areas of Lower Shabelle; and this is likely to impact on pasture and browse. Increased sand dune invasion on arable lands, settlements and main roads of the region has also been noted.

Physical Capital: Despite some repairs, and rehabilitation there is continued deterioration of the already diminishing irrigation infrastructure, river embankments, canals, bridges, barrages and culverts in both Middle and Lower Shabelle. In addition, road conditions have deteriorated resulting in limited mobility. Floods have partially led to a reduction

southern somalia of the area planted and contributed to low cereal production in Deyr ‘07/08 and limited transport and commodity movements between the region and Mogadishu. Despite the number of rehabilitation activities currently going, the regions are still prone to further ﬂoods during the upcoming Gu ’08. If rains intensify in the Ethiopian highlands it is likely there will be ﬂooding in the Shabelle regions. Current water shortages in some of the agro-pastoral areas in the region, including areas that received average Deyr ‘07/08 rains, are due to the majority of water catchments being silted up and limited or no rehabilitation or maintenance.

Human Capital: Access to basic schooling remains minimal in rural livelihoods of the region and there are only a small number of privately owned schools in main towns and some villages. Similarly, access to health services is beyond the reach of the rural people with a limited number of services provided in the main towns.

Financial Capital: Income from crop sales and agricultural labour continues to be low for the poor riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods, following ﬁve consecutive poor cropping seasons. Deyr ‘07/08 cereal production in Shabelle is estimated at about half of PWA and 5-year average. While livestock body conditions and prices are good in the western parts of the Shabelle region, the ongoing decrease of the water availability and vegetation in the eastern part of the regions are resulting in a decline in livestock body conditions, low milk production and low income from milk and livestock sales. In addition, the livestock movement from those areas during the harsh Jilaal season will force pastoralists/agro-pastoralists to Cattle migration to riverine for better pasture, Middle Shabelle, Dec. ’07 sell more livestock to cover livestock fodder expenses, particularly for cattle.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 52 Issued March 7, 2008 Social Capital: Social support mechanisms continue to remain poor in riverine and agro-pastoral areas through several consecutive seasons of drought and low crop production In the riverine areas, the collective resource sharing systems of irrigation canal operations, wealth distribution and share cropping sustained a setback due to the substantial reduction in investments as a result of the ongoing civil insecurity and the general uncertainty. In addition to the successive poor agricultural seasons in the last several years, there are very high numbers of IDPs in the region. These are adding pressure to the already limited resources of the host communities. During Jan. ’08, there was limited access to crop and livestock gifts (zeka) due to production.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

Middle and Lower Shabelle comprise of four livelihoods Figure 43: Deyr Cereal Production Lower Shabelle Region (riverine, agro-pastoral, pastoral and urban). Amongst (1995 - 2007) these, riverine and agro-pastoral are the two dominant livelihoods. The poor wealth groups of both livelihoods mainly depend on their cereal production for their annual caloriﬁc intake (65-80%), supplemented with food purchase (10-20%) and own animal products (0-15%). Poor Agro-pastoralists earn 40-65% of their annual cash income from employment (agricultural labour) and self-employment (gathering and sale of bush products), and 0-20% from sale of livestock and livestock products. Poor riverine wealth groups earn over half of their annual income from crop sales followed by seasonal casual labour. Figure 44: Deyr Cereal Production Middle Shabelle

Food Sources: Food access from own cereal production Region (1995 - 2007) southern somalia in Deyr ‘07/08 in Shabelle regions is one of the lowest for more than a decade; 55% and 53% of PWA and 5-year average, respectively (Figure 43 and 44). Disaggregated by region, Lower Shabelle has a loss of about 50% compared to PWA and 5-year average ﬁgures, while the loss in Middle Shabelle accounts for 34% - 40% of PWA and 5-year average. Maize production, which makes up the bulk of cereal in the regions, has performed poorly showing 60% loss compared to the PWA production levels. Sorghum production, however, performed better than Gu ’07 although 12% below the PWA.

Below average Deyr ‘07/08 rains, worsening irrigation infrastructure as a result of a series of ﬂooding in the riverine, and parts of agro-pastoral areas leading to river breakages destroying large arable areas and delays of planting are among the main factors contributing to the low production. Hyperinﬂation since April ’07 has caused high fuel and seed prices denying many farmers the ability to hire tractors. Pest damage, has also taken a heavy toll on the cereal production in the region. However, there are parts of the Southern agro-pastoral livelihood that have average sorghum production that will improve the overall access to food in Wanlaweyn and parts of Jowhar districts.

These cumulative effects have resulted in low cereal availability and stocks at the household level and in markets. Since Gu ’07, there has been an increasing dependence on cereal purchase. Of particular concern are the maize and cowpea agro-pastoralists who have had two consecutive seasons of crop failures. Key factors behind the increasing cereal prices are the increased demand from cereal producers, and demands from the IDPs and urban dwellers, who are shifting from the more expensive imported food commodities to cheaper local cereals.

Income Sources: Main income sources (crop and labour) for the poor riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods remain affected by the series of low production and all time high cereal prices in the region (Figure 45 and 46). Sesame production, which provides supplemental cash income for the riverine, is also very poor and is affected by floods and the poorly maintained irrigation infrastructure. Although labour wages for Dec. ’07 indicate a significant improvement (an increase of 50% since July ’07), availability and access have been uneven in both riverine and agro-pastoral areas. The riverine poor will have limited access to some agricultural labour activities in flood recession areas during Jan.-March ’07. Availability of urban labour, particularly in Mogadishu, remains insignificant due to the ongoing and protracted insecurity, disrupted trade and low port and market movements as well as the large concentration of IDPs in the Shabelle region. On the positive side, however, riverine households have income from fodder sales, with the current price three times higher than usual, due to the heavy concentration of livestock from drought areas in the east, where pasture and browse conditions are very poor.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 53 Issued March 7, 2008 Prices of livestock (all species) are above average in most markets. According to Dec. ’07 FSAU Market Update, local quality goat price in Dec. ’07 is 26%, 43% and 55% higher compared to July ’07, Dec. ’06 and the 5-year Dec. average prices, respectively. Local quality cattle prices increased 78%, 83%, and 87% over the same periods.

Market Purchases: The below average cereal produc- Figure 45: Shabelle Region, Maize Price Trends (SoSh) tion over successive seasons is resulting in low cereal stocks and increasing reliance on the market for food in both riverine and agro-pastoral areas of the region. With the sharp increase in cereal prices in the last six months, the purchasing power of many poor households has been severely undermined. The average maize price in Dec. ’07 was around 100% higher than the same month last year and 5-year average price, while Sorghum had increases of 53% and 37% over the same period. Between Dec. ’07 and Jan. ’08 alone, maize prices have increased 22%, from SoSh 3,874 to SoSh 4,733, indicating prices will continue to increase over the next six months (Figure 45 and 46). Figure 46: Shabelle Region, Sorghum Price Trends (SoSh) Similarly, imported food prices, particularly rice, vegetable oil, and fuel are at record highs, more than 100% above the 5-year average price and increasing. This is in line with the major devaluation of the Somali Shilling against the US dollar across the country (See Market Section). As of Jan. ’08 the rice price in Shabelle has increased 20% since July ’07 and more than double when compared to Jan. last year and the Jan. 5-year average. The price of sugar made no signiﬁcant change since Gu ‘07, however, the current price (Jan.’08) is 28% and 54% higher than Jan. last year and Jan. 5-year average prices, respectively. Prices of diesel are more than double when compared to Jan. ‘07 and Jan. 5-year average prices. Figure 47: Shabelle Region, Terms of Trade Cereal to Labour Terms of Trade (TOT) of maize to labour in Jan. ’08 fell by two-thirds as compared to Jan. last year and is just over half of Jan. 5-year average rates (Figure 47). Although TOT for sorghum to local quality goat for Dec. ’07 is southern somalia slightly above the 5-year average (12% increase) due to near normal sorghum production, the terms of trade between maize to local goat is 58% and 42% lower than Jan. ‘07 and the 5-year Jan. average, respectively.

Coping Strategies: As a result of the increase in saleable animals agro-pastoralists have been selling livestock. Also, agro-pastoralists have reduced their consumption of milk in order to benefit from the sale of this commodity. There is evidence that poor riverine and agro-pastoralists in Lower Shabelle are resorting to charcoal production as a source of income. Fishing opportunities exist in flooded areas; and dried fish meat is marketed to main towns. Fodder sales to pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are available for riverine livelihoods. Food aid and other interventions exist in the region.

Nutrition Situation

The nutrition situation in the agro-pastoral livelihood of Lower and Middle Shabelle remains Critical, while the A woman carries Unsafe Water for Household use from the River, Shabelle, Nov. ’07 situation for the riverine population has slightly improved to Serious from the Critical nutrition situation reported in the Gu ’07. The new IDPs in Afgoye and Merka are also in a Critical nutrition situation, an improvement from Very Critical levels recorded in Afgoye town in Gu ’07. The slight improvement recorded in Shabelle riverine community is likely attributed to the increased humanitarian interventions, as well as improved ﬁshing and access to fruits and vegetables in the Riverine areas.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 54 Issued March 7, 2008 The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: Figure 48: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition • Nutrition assessments: Three nutrition assess- 2001-2007 in Shabelle Region (WHZ<-2 ments were conducted in November 2007 in the or oedema) riverine, agro-pastoral/pastoral and new IDP population groups and reported the following results: Shabelle riverine a GAM rate of 14.0% (11.2 – 16.7) and a SAM rate of 2.9% (1.6 – 4.1) and Shabelle agro-pastoral a GAM rate of 17.6% (13.3 – 21.8) and a SAM rate of 3.2% (1.7- 4.6); Shabelle new IDPs (Merka and Afgoye) a GAM rate of 15.2% (11.7 – 18.6) and a SAM rate of 3.2% (1.9- 4.5). The findings of both Shabelle Riverine and IDP nutrition assessments indicate a Critical nutrition situation, which shows a persistence of similar situation reported in Gu ’07 among the riverine community, but a slight improvement from Very Critical to Critical for the IDPs. The findings of the nutrition assessment of the agro-pastoral population indicate a Serious nutrition situation which is an improvement from the May’07 assessment that recorded a Critical situation (Figure 48). • Rapid MUAC assessment: A rapid MUAC assessment conducted in rural agro-pastoral

populations in Shabelle Regions in August/ southern somalia September 2007, by FSAU, identified >15% of 741 assessed children as acutely malnourished (<12.5cm). A displaced woman prepares a shelter, Afgoye FSAU Nov 08 • Health Information System: Health facility data indicates low but increasing trends in the numbers of acutely malnourished children. (Source: HIS data June – November 2007). • Dietary diversity: is poor with 13.4%, 3.9% and 7.9% consuming a less diversified diet (<4 food groups) in a day in agro-pastoral, riverine and IDP assessments, respectively. • Morbidity: High morbidity rates were reported with 30.4%, 47.9% and 52.6% of the assessed children in the agro-pastoral, riverine and IDP populations respectively, reportedly ill in the two weeks prior to the assessment. RDT confirmed malaria cases were 1.4% in agro-pastoral, 2.7% in riverine and 0.4% in the IDP populations • Measles immunization Coverage: Very low at 22.8% in agro-pastoral, 47.4% in the riverine and 67.6% in amongst the new IDPs.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 55 Issued March 7, 2008 THE PLIGHT OF THE SOMALI DISABLED PEOPLE INSIDE SOMALIA

Somalia has witnessed a civil unrest over the past 17 years. The absence of Social Support Institutions has negatively affected the livelihoods of the physically challenged and disabled people. The disabled population has increased signiﬁcantly, due to a number of factors including civil insecurity and conﬂict, chronic malnutrition, accidents, disease and poor health services. Groups of unemployed disabled people are clearly visible along the streets and are not receiving appropriate assistance to enable them to support themselves.

A recent survey carried out by the Institute of Educa- tion for Disabled People of Somalia (IEDSOM), a Local NGO, in collaboration with UNDP-Somalia in Mogadishu, revealed that the disabled people are one of the most vulnerable and one of the voiceless groups among the Somali society. People with disabilities are widely segregated, abused and deprived from their universal rights. Most of the disabled people in the rural areas are taken to relatives living in urban areas, regardless their wealth status. They are an additional burden to the household as they do not contribute economically. In urban areas the disabled in a desperate situation and many have never attended school. They are neglected by the community and not beneﬁting from the emergency relief and development programs and furthermore, are generally not participating in community or household level decision making.

Most disabled people have no families, especially women since they will require additional support rather than making productive contributions to the household. Children with disabilities are at a higher risk of disease and death due to of poor health conditions and lack of access to public services. plight of the disabled During the IEDSOM / UNDP survey, an estimated of 20,000 of disabled people were identiﬁed in Mogadi- shu city alone, while 2,300 disabled persons live in the IDP camps in Ceelash Biyaha and 560 in Dayniile camps. Many more unrecorded are in the regional capitals examining their future. There are only three rehabilitation centers for the disabled people run by Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS), supported by the Norwegian Red Cross, and are based in Hargeisa, Garowe and Mogadishu. There are a few private centers available in Hargeisa, Bossaso and Mogadishu, however these are expensive and not affordable for the vast majority of the disabled.

Apart from the basic needs (food, shelter and clothes), disabled people require poverty reduction schemes, education and appropriate training skills. Rehabilitation centers and cash relief programs would facilitate their integration and provide a means to enable them to make productive contributions and reverse preju- dices from other sectors of the community.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 56 Issued March 7, 2008 4.1.5 Hiran Region Map 22: Hiran Livelihood Systems Overview

Agro-pastoral and Riverine The humanitarian situation of agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods has continued to deteriorate since Jan. ’07 respectively. Agro-pastoralists previously classified in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) during the Gu ‘07 continue to be in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), but with an increased number, including 100% of the poor (47,000 people), who are affected. This deterioration is due to the complete failure of Deyr ’07 rain fed crops and declining purchasing power due to increasing cereal prices. The situation in the riverine areas of Hiran region have deteriorated significantly since last Gu ‘07 and while the phase classification remains the same, LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS Humanitarian Emergency (HE), the number of people in this phase has increased. AGRO-PASTORALISTS RIVERINE Those in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) now include 100% of the poor and 50% of the middle wealth group riverine population which represents 20,000 people. Another 4,000 people are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) representing 25% of the middle wealth group riverine population (Table 23 and 24).

Pastoral The food security situation of Addun/Hawd pastoral in Map 23: Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation - Hiran Hiran region is similar to central region and has deteriorated from the previous phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI) to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), with high risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE). It is

estimated that 4,000 will face Humanitarian Emergency central somalia (HE) before June ’08. An additional 13,000 people in the same livelihood are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis FSAU (AFLC). This is a result of poor Deyr 07/08 rains that resulted in early water trucking from Nov. ’07, increased prices, deterioration in rangeland resources, poor livestock body conditions and a reduction of marketable animals to meet water and food requirements.

Resource based conﬂict, limited out-migration due to insecurity; projected asset depletion and critical nutritional status are additional indicators supporting the early warning level of High Risk of Humanitarian Emergency (Map 23).

Although 34% of the total rural population are classified in HE and AFLC, the majority of the population are classified as Generally Food Insecure (GFI). There is a need to address the underlying causes to food insecurity and to improve resilience to future shocks. Key causes include deteriorating physical infrastructure, including road and water sources, poor access to health care services, and schools and ongoing insecurity and clan tensions resulting in limited mobility and trade. In addition to the crop failure, there was reluctance to plant for fear of flooding and high fuel prices. Cereal production of this Deyr ’07/08 in Hiran region is 2,390 MT, which is 36% compared to Deyr’ 06/07, 33% compared to the five year average and 34% compared to PWA. The price of sorghum is higher in Jan ‘08 by 123%, 158% and 164% compared to July ‘07, Jan. ’07, and the five year average price for January respectively. The price of maize also increased similarly. Prices are expected to continue on an increasing trend until Gu ‘08.

Table 23: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 57 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 24: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes

Effects on Livelihood Asset

Natural Capital: Most of the region received rainfall of Figure 49: Hiran Region, Sorghum Price Trends (SoSh) 140-185mm between Sept. and Nov. ‘07 which is 50-70% of the long term mean. The seasonal rains were poor in most of the agro-pastoral and riverine areas of Beletweyn and Buloburte. In Jalalaqsi district the amount of rains received was slightly above normal though the frequency and the coverage were extremely poor. Pastoral areas over the region had less rain compared to other livelihoods (agro-pastoral and riverine) with the exception of pockets in the Southern Inland Pastoral LZ.

Seasonal rivers are providing less water compared to normal for this time of year due to the poor Deyr ‘07/08 rains. Water availability is extremely poor in the Ad- dun/Hawd pastoral and agro-pastoral areas and pasture condition is poor in all districts. This has resulted in cattle pastoralists and agro-pastoralists hand feeding their cattle and therefore incurring additional expenses. There is also an increase in resource based conﬂict, reducing grazing and water options. Due to the poor roads and long distances charcoal availability is limited and the price of central somalia charcoal has increased by 47% from Jan. ’07 to Jan. ‘08 (from 64,200 SoSh/50kg to 94,500 SoSh/50kg) and is 51% higher compared to the 5-year average.

Physical Capital: The tarmac road connecting Mogad- Poor Cattle Body Condition, Beletweyn , Hiran, Dec. ’07 ishu to the north through Hiran region is almost impassable due to the lack of maintenance for over a decade. Travel time from Mogadishu to Beletweyn, is now 2 – 3 days instead of one. Furthermore, the security situation on the road has also deteriorated over the past six months as the freelance militia increased the number of roadblocks and informal taxes on trade. This has further complicated access, leading to imported commodity prices being consistently higher than other nearby regions. For example, the diesel price in Beletweyn in Jan. ‘08 (22,250 SoSh/litre) is 24% higher than Baidoa ((18,000 SoSh/litre).

Following torrential rains in the upper catchment of Ethiopia in Deyr ‘06/07, there have been frequent river level fluctuations in Hiran. Minor flooding in Beletweyn and Buloburte was reported, but with limited damage. At the beginning of the Deyr season, riverine farmers became reluctant to irrigate their fields because of the fear of flooding. In Jalalaqsi, the flooding was more severe and destroyed germinated seedlings and inundated significant areas along the river and re-inundated areas that were still water logged from Gu ’07, restricting the area for planting between Jalalaqsi and Mahaday. Many primary canals remain silted. Culverts, bridges and fragile river embankments are also in very poor condition in most parts of the region due to damage from previous successive floods.

Social Capital: Social support among the communities in all livelihoods has signiﬁcantly reduced this season due to poor seasonal performance, limited income opportunities, presence of the IDPs in both rural and urban, and the unresolved security situation in Mogadishu. Local and overseas remittances and gifts in kind and cash have declined and are anticipated to decline further. The lacks of income earning options, as well as high and increasing prices of both imported and locally produced cereals, are exacerbating the IDPs’ already limited access to food.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 58 Issued March 7, 2008 Almost 47,600 IDPs have arrived in Hiran region since Jan. ‘07, these IDPs represent 7% of the total IDPs in south/ central of Somalia. Most, or 70%, of the present IDPs in the region are mainly women and children, adding additional pressure on the fragile food security situation for the host community both urban and rural. It was reported that over 90% of the IDPs are unemployed and over 80% are not receiving any remittances. An even more worrying situation is that over 90 % of the IDPs do not have access to clean safe water and the access of the latrines is very poor (one latrine is shared by over 30 people).

Human Capital: There is limited or no access to formal education (schools) in the rural areas, but Koranic schools are available throughout the region. Information from the SLIMS nodes indicate that the educational attendance (Koranic and formal education) remained within the usual range. Availability and the access to health posts are very limited in the rural areas. Most of the rural population depends on agricultural employment and other self employment including the collection and sale of bush products

Financial Capital: While herd sizes have increased over the last 12 months, herd growth is anticipated to decline by 10% in sheep and goats over the coming six months to meet the high cost of water trucking and increased food prices. Export goat prices increased by 40%, 55% and 107% in Jan. ’08 compared to July ‘07, Jan.06 and ﬁve year average respectively, however, these increases have not been sufﬁcient to offset the additional costs of staple foods and water trucking.

Debts for the poor groups in all livelihoods will continue to rise since their income is limited and the prices of the staple and non-staple required items remain high. Debt levels for the poor households of riverine, agro-pastoral and the pastoral areas increased from the Gu ‘07 to Deyr ‘07/08 from $ 150 to $290. Access to credit for poor riverine and agro-pastoralists is very limited due to the loss of income from the crop sector following successive seasons of poor crop production and limited agricultural employment opportunities (i.e. poor agricultural employment and lack of the crop and fodder sales). central somalia

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

Riverine and agro-pastoral livelihoods normally rely on their crop production (almost 60%), followed by market purchases. Pastoralists rely on food purchases supplemented by own livestock production consumption. Poor riverine households earn some income from crop sales, fodder, grain and fruits (35%), agricultural employment (27%), self employment (30%) and honey production (8%) for only riverine. For the poor pastoralists 50% of their income is derived from the livestock and livestock product sales, 30% from the self employment and 20% from other mixed sources.

Food Sources: Cereal production is negligible due to the poor Deyr ’07/08 season. Cereal stocks are limited due to poor production for 5 out of 6 seasons. Cereal production in this Deyr ’07/08 from Hiran region is 2,390 MT, which is 36% compared to last Deyr ‘06/07, 33% compared to the ﬁve year average and 34% compared to PWA. In addition, the Deyr ‘07/08 production from Hiran region is the lowest of any region in southern Somalia. There are no cereal stocks available in agro-pastoral areas from the Gu ’07 production, therefore the agro-pastoralists are dependent on market purchase.

Staple food purchases from the market will be limited as there are limited sources of cash income. High cereal prices available in the reference market of Beletwein have decreased the purchasing power of poor wealth groups. In addition, the high demand of cereal from the central regions is adding pressure to the cereal availability and stability in the market. Supply from the neighbouring regions and Ethiopia is not also reliable. Adding to this are resource based conﬂicts and economic burdens on host families from the inﬂux of IDPs. Milk prices increased due to low supply in the markets in relation with the poor seasonal performance and high demand from the consumers (including IDPs) concentrated in the urban centre (Figure 49).

Income Sources: Due to poor income from milk, crop and fodder sales income opportunities for the poor wealth groups in all livelihoods are limited. Livestock prices have improved slightly in the Beletwein reference market, but most of the poor and middle groups are not beneﬁting because of the lack of marketable animals due to poor body condition. Due to the poor seasonal performance, income from crop and fodder is not applicable. In Jalalaqsi, there is standing sesame, but the expected production is extremely low. Milk production is below normal due to poor pasture intake for the lactating animals which has resulted in a lower milk yield. Milk yields are anticipated to be lower in the future due to abortion in the Jilal dry season and high mortality rates for calves immediately after delivery. Daily wage rates increased in Jan. ’08 by 100% and 207 % compared to July ‘07 and ﬁve year average respectively. However, the availability of labour is currently very low due to the lack of agricultural activities.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 59 Issued March 7, 2008 Since own production from crop and livestock is extremely low at the household level, most of the wealth groups are dependent on market purchases and therefore expenditure has increased signiﬁcantly over the last 12 months. The price of sorghum increased by 123%, since July ’07 and maize has increased by similar margins. The trend for cereal prices is expected to further increase.

In Beletwein reference market, the terms of trade (ToT) between labour and cereals dropped by 52%, 43% and 39% in Dec. ’07 compared to Jan. ’07, July ‘07 and five year average, respectively. Similarly, the terms of trade between local goat and cereals dropped by 33% and 35% in Dec. ’07 compared to Jan. and July ’07, respectively and lower by 31% and 26% compared to the five year average and Dec. ’06, respectively. The decline in terms of trade in this region are due to significant increase of cereal prices, deteriorating livestock body conditions, the impact of IDPs in the region, and inter-regional trade restrictions due to insecurity. It is expected that the terms of trade in Hiran region will continue to decline until Gu ’08.

Coping Strategies: Coping options are limited due to the severity of the situation. During the ﬁeld survey of this Deyr ’07/08 in Hiran region, it was noted that people were resorting to fodder sale, labour migration to urban centres, reduction of meals in terms of quantity, quality and frequency, buying food, distress sales of animals, and seeking social support among friends and kinship groups.

Nutrition Situation

The nutrition situation analysis remains Critical for Figure 50: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition the riverine population in Hiran region, while the agro- 2000-2007 in Hiran Region (WHZ<-2 or pastoral/pastoral areas indicate a slight improvement oedema) from Critical to Serious. However, this change is not statistically signiﬁcant compared to the levels reported in Gu ’07. These levels are consistent with ﬁndings from historical nutrition survey data conducted in the region (Figure 50)

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition assessments: Two nutrition assessments conducted in November 2007 reported the following results: Hiran Riverine a GAM rate of 17.5% (14.5 – 20.4) and a SAM rate of 2.5% (1.5 – 3.6), Hiran agro-pastoral/pastoral a central somalia GAM rate of 14.2% (11.4 – 17.0) and a SAM rate of 2.9% (1.7-4.2). These assessments indicate a Critical and Serious nutrition situation in the riverine and agro-pastoral/pastoral populations respectively and illustrate no change for the riverine population but a slight improvement for the agro-pastoral community from the Gu ’07. • Health Information System: Health facility data indicates high levels and stable trends in numbers of acutely malnourished children. (Source: HIS data June – November 2007). A shallow well in Noqkosaar village of Beletweyne • Measles immunization Coverage: Critically District, FSAU Nov. 2007 low coverage with 39.9% and 53% of the assessed children immunized in agro-pastoral/pastoral and riverine populations, respectively. • Dietary Diversity: is poor with low milk consumption and 11.1% and 17.8% consuming a less diversiﬁed diet (<4 food groups) in a day in agro-pastoral/pastoral and riverine assessments respectively.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 60 Issued March 7, 2008 4.2 CENTRAL REGIONS

Overview Map 24: Central Region Livelihood Systems The food security situation of Hawd/Addun pastoral and agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones of Central regions (Galgadud and south Mudug) have deteriorated further since last Gu’07 from Generally Food Insecure (GFI) to Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) with high risk of Humanitarian Emergency (HE). As a result 20,000 people are in HE representing 25% of the poor, while another 115,000 people of the same livelihood are in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC), representing 75% and 25% of the poor and middle wealth groups, respectively. Therefore, 130,000 of the Central region population (Galgadud and south Mudug) are in AFLC, representing 84% of the affected people and 25,000 are in HE (Table 25 and 26).

LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS PASTORALISTS AGRO-PASTORALISTS The early warning level of ‘Moderate risk’ in Gu’07 has changed to ‘high risk’ RIVERINE for the entire Central region during the period of Jan. to June ‘08. Indicators to monitor during this time are food prices (staple/non staple), terms of trade, water trucking prices, the effects of the IDPs on host rural communities, and increased risk to resource based conﬂicts (around access to water and pasture).

Although 20% of the rural population are classified in HE Map 25: Food Security Phase Classification and AFLC, the majority are classified as Generally Food Central Region Insecure (GFI). There is an urgent need of strategic interventions to improve their resilience to future shocks. Key underlying causes include the degradation of productive infrastructure, such as roads and water catchments, lack central somalia of control of natural resources. In addition, there is poor dietary diversity, limited access to health care facilities, clean water, and a need for improved caring practices.

The region is currently facing the impact of multiple shocks, including successive seasons of below normal rains. This has resulted in extended water trucking (from June ‘07 to Jan. ‘08) and associated increased water trucking costs (160% higher compared to last Jan. ‘07). In addition there is a deterioration in rangeland resources FSAU (water and pasture) resulting in poor livestock body condition. There is also high and rapid inﬂation of food and non-food commodity prices, as well as disrupted economic activities and trade. The Central region is hosting one of the largest numbers of IDPs from Mogadishu, many of whom face recurrent civil insecurity and conﬂict as well as increased acute and severe malnutrition.

Table 25: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.2 for Footnotes

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 61 Issued March 7, 2008 Table 26: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC).

See Appendix 5.4.3 for Footnotes Effects on the livelihood assets

Natural Capital: Most of the central region (south Mudug and Galgadud) received extremely poor rains and overall performance of the Deyr rains over the spatial and temporal distribution was poor. The cumulative amount recorded was 40-60 mm between Oct.-Dec.’ 07, which is 50-70% of the long term. The least amount of rain during this Deyr were received along the coast from Shebelle through central regions and as far as the north east (See climate section). Early water trucking started seven months early in many areas and is continuing. The price of a barrel of water in Jan. ’08 is 160% higher compared to Jan ’07. This will result in additional livestock sales and increased use of credit during the dry Jilal season. It is estimated that poor pastoralists will need to sell more than 15 sheep/ goats and a minimum of one camel to meet essential food Empty and dry berked, Ceeldheer, Galgadud, Dec. ‘07 and water requirements in the coming 6 months. central somalia Physical Capital: In most parts of the central region, roads and basic transport infrastructure are in poor condition and the situation is deteriorating due to a lack of maintenance. Encroachment of sand dunes in the coastal areas (Elder, Harardere and Hobyo) restricts transportation movements and impacts imported food commodity prices. The tarmac road connecting Mogadishu to the north through central regions is almost impassable due to the lack of repairs and maintenance. It is also reported that the security situation has deteriorated over the past six months as the freelance militia increased the number of roadblocks and imposed informal taxes. This has lead FSAU Hired Car stuck in Sand, Elder, Galgadud, Dec. ’07 to consistently higher import commodity prices compared to other regions. For example, the price of rice in Dhusa- mareb in Dec. ‘07 is 31% higher compared to Baidoa.

Social Capital: Social support systems in the region are common and include amah (loans), sharing livestock (particularly goat), milk and food. Support is also given in the form of cash such as gifts, shahad, and remittances. However, this normal practice has declined due to the poor performance for the last two seasons resulting in crop failure and a deterioration of livestock body conditions. In addition, 177,750 IDPs have arrived in Galgadud and south Mudug since Jan. ‘07, representing 25% of total IDPs in Somalia and 85% women and children. This is adding additional pressure on the fragile food security for the host community both urban and rural. It was reported that over 90% of the IDPs are unemployed and over 80% are not receiving any remittances. An even more critical situation is that about 40 % of the IDPs do not have access to clean safe water, and that over 40% of the IDPs do not have protected latrines. As IDPs are not ﬁnding any employment and do not have access to other income sources, they are adding a burden to the host communities.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 62 Issued March 7, 2008 Financial Capital: Due to the unfavorable conditions following the Gu ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/08, herd sizes for the pastoral communities have decreased by 12% in cattle, 24% in sheep and 3% in goat between April and Dec. ‘07. The livestock sales from the previous Hagaa to this Deyr are abnormally high in order to meet the high costs for staple and non-staple food and water. In addition, there are reports of increased deaths of camel calves immediately after delivery. Similarly, agro-pastoral livelihoods suffered due to the failure of the cowpea crop in the past two seasons. This has led to sales of small animals to meet water and food costs. All populations in different livelihoods are accumulating more debt and on average debts Emaciated Camel unable to stand , Galgadud, Dec. ’07 are 70% higher (from 106 USD to 180USD) from last Gu’ 07 to current Deyr’ 07/08 due to increased spending Figure 51: Central Region Terms of Trade Goat and on food and water trucking. Labour to Cereal

Human Capital: In the central regions the rural village education infrastructure and other public services are limited. Enrolment and attendance of the children is extremely limited. Education facilities are conﬁned in the main urban centers, such as Dusamareb, Guricel, Abudwaq, Elbur, Elder and Harardere, in which the quality of education is very poor due to lack of qualiﬁed teachers and lack of teacher’s incentives. central somalia

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

Normally agro-pastoral livelihoods in the central region rely on food purchase from the market (almost 40%), followed by own production of crops (30%) and livestock (15%) supplemented by small contributions from wild food in kind or food gifts. Pastoralists rely on food purchase supplemented by own livestock production consumption. Poor agro-pastoral households earn some income from livestock and livestock product sales (50%), self-employment (30%) and community support (20%). For the poor pastoralists almost half (42%) of income is derived from the livestock and livestock product sales, 38% from the employment and 20% from other mixed sources (gifts and wild food). (See baseline proﬁle)

Food Sources: Due to successive poor rainfall performances, the main food source for the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods in the Central region is from market purchases through livestock sales. Due to record high prices of rice, sorghum is being consumed regardless of wealth group. Rice prices increased by 49% from July to Dec. ‘07. Simi- larly wheat flour prices increased by 46% from July to Dec. ’07. As a result, the purchasing power for pastoral and agro-pastoral households has significantly declined. Camel milk availability is limited for household consumption due to lower production. For agro-pastoralists, there have been two successive crop failures (cowpea and cereal) due to below normal rainfall of both Gu ‘07 and Deyr 07/08 (30% and 40-60% of Long Term Mean respectively) which has meant they have to sell additional livestock to meet the shortfall. The terms of trade (TOT) declined for local goat/cereal by 53% since Dec. ‘06. As a result poor households and a significant portion of middle wealth group in the central regions will not be able to meet basic needs unless they resort to asset stripping.

Income Sources: Currently, agro-pastoralists income from cowpea crop sales is limited due to the total cowpea crop failure this season and limited stocks. Income from livestock sales has improved in Dec. ’07 compared to July ’07, as local quality goat prices have increased 22%, and export quality goat prices have increased by 35%. However, livestock herd sizes reduced by 12% in camel, 24% in cattle and 3% in sheep and goat from April to Dec. ‘07. Milk prices increased in most reference markets, but due to lower production, only better-off households beneﬁt (See Livestock Sector). Despite the slight increase in livestock prices for both local and export quality goat over the last six months it cannot offset the record high price for the cereals.

The purchasing power or the terms of trade (TOT) between local goat/sheep to rice in Dec. ‘07 is lower in some markets compared to the same time last year, due to increased imported rice prices. For example, in the Galkacyo market, the terms of trade of local quality goat to rice is 58% lower in Dec. ‘07 (33 kg/head) compared to Dec. ’06 (80 kg/head). The increased rice price, lower terms of trade of local goat to rice in some markets, and the high costs associated with early water trucking, is resulting in both pastoral and agro-pastoral households not having access to adequate food (Figure 51).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 63 Issued March 7, 2008 Expenditure: According to expenditure and livestock herd analysis, poor pastoralists in Addun/Hawd LZs and Coastal agro-pastoralist will neither meet their food requirements for the next six months nor cover increased water trucking costs over and the next 6 months. The result will require selling additional animals above normal, and the herd growth and recovery achieved during the last three seasons can’t support this level of off-take. Pastoralists are now identiﬁed in an Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis as they have begun asset stripping. FSAU will closely monitor the terms of trade and water trucking costs to monitor the evolving situation of the next few months.

Coping Strategies: The coping options of poor pastoral and agro-pastoral wealth groups include migration in search of pasture and water, increased use of loans and support from better-off relatives/friends, and buying food and water on credit. Other options, but less common are hunting of wildlife and seeking integration with host communities in the remote rural areas and also call for relief from aid organizations.

Nutrition Situation Figure 52: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition The nutrition situation in Galgadud and South Mudug 2000-2007 in Central Regions (WHZ<-2 is Critical, except within parts of Dusamareb district or oedema) where the situation is Serious and likely linked to the interventions by ACF and MSFB in that area. These areas also host a high number of recent IDPs following the insecurity in Mogadishu. The nutrition situation has deteriorated from the Serious level they were in Gu ’07, with the exception of areas in Dusamareb, the Cowpea Belt and the Coastal Deeh, which have remained Serious. All the areas in the Hawd and Addun pastoral livelihoods have noted deterioration in the nutrition situation. This is mainly attributed to limited access to food due to rain failure from two consecutive seasons, the presence of recently displaced populations, and the unstable security situation especially in Hobyo area. Two nutrition surveys recently conducted in the region (FSAU and partners, Novem- ber 2007) reported global acute malnutrition rates above 15% in Hawd and Addun livelihoods indicating a Critical nutrition situation. However, an assessment conducted by ACF in Dusamareb district in December 2007, reported a lower GAM rate (<15%) indicating a Serious nutrition situation, highlighting the positive impact of humanitarian interventions on the nutrition situation.

The key nutrition findings in these areas are as follows: central somalia • Nutrition Assessments: Three nutrition assessments conducted from October through December 2007 reported the following results: Hawd pastoral, a GAM rate of 17.2% (14.1 – 20.5) and a SAM rate of 1.3% (0.6 – 3.6); Addun Pastoral a GAM rate of 15.9% (12.8 – 18.9) and a SAM rate of 1.6% (0.8-2.6); and Dusa- mareb District a GAM rate of 12.4% (10.1-14.6) and a SAM rate of 1.3% (0.4-2.1). With the exception of the Dusamareb assessment that indicated a Serious nutrition situation, the other two assessments indicate a Critical nutrition situation. As illustrated in (Figure 52) above, these results are consistent with historical data for the region, illustrating the chronic nature of the nutrition crisis but indicate deterioration in Hawd and Addun of Galgadud and South Mudug. • Health Information System: The levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health centre level remained high and stable over the last three months in MCHs in Galgadud, Hiran and South Mudug. • Dietary diversity: is poor with low milk consumption and 21.4% and 7% consuming less diversified diet (<4 food groups) in a day in Addun and Hawd assessed populations respectively. • Morbidity: High incidences of diarrhoea (23.2% in Addun and 19.6% in Hawd); ARI (25.8% in Addun and 24.6% in Hawd) and low rates of confirmed malaria (4.4% and 3.6% in Addun and Hawd respectively) reported from the nutrition assessments. • Measles immunization coverage: Incredibly low at 11.5% and 31.2% in Addun and Hawd, respectively. These results are of great concern given the population is already nutritionally vulnerable and with the added risk of low immunity, in the event of an outbreak of measles, the consequences are likely to be devastating.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 64 Issued March 7, 2008 4.3 NORTHEAST REGION

Overview Map 26: Northeast Region: Livelihood Systems Pastoral areas in the northeast regions remain in the phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI). The situation in the Adduun and coastal Deeh LZs in Eyl, Jarriban, and Galkayo districts that were previously identiﬁed as Moderate Risk to deterioration has improved as a result of receiving good rainfall. Most of the Berkads and shallow wells in the Addun Coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zones have been replenished and pasture and grazing conditions have regenerated. Most pastoralists have returned to their livelihood zones where they will have access to abundant pasture. Although immediate humanitarian and livelihood support is not required, these regions need strategic interventions to improve their resilience to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future shocks. Interventions are also needed to readdress structural hindrances to achieving adequate food, nutrition and livelihood security, and address the underlying causes of chronically high malnutrition levels, e.g. dietary diversity, access to health care, clean water and improve caring practices.

Livestock body conditions are average throughout the northeast regions. Camel milk production is good to average Map 27: Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation - Northeast as a result of high calving rates in the Deyr `07/08. Camel and sheep/goat herd sizes have completely recovered and are 160-170% and 110-180% compared to baseline herd sizes. The exception, however, are in the Nugal and Sool pastoral livelihood zones, where camel herd sizes have northeast somalia not recovered from the severe drought loss of ‘02-04 and are still below baseline. No livestock disease outbreaks have been reported; however, common tick borne diseases and endo-parasites are affecting sheep/goats and camels. Pastoralists have normal access to marketable animals to barter against the record high cereal prices. In some areas pastoralists have repaid most of their former cumulative debts. Localized areas in Bari, Sool and Nugal regions received poor Deyr ‘07/08 rains, but all wealth groups FSAU were able to migrate to within or adjacent livelihood zones where both pasture and water is abundant.

Overall, livestock prices have improved. Export quality Figure 53: Northeast Region, Rice Price Trends (SoSh) goat prices in the northeast in Dec. ’07 are 24% and 55% higher compared to Dec. ’06 and 5-year average for Dec. (‘02 -06). The price of rice in the northeast is at an all time high due to the devaluation in the Somali Shilling (Figure 53). Income from milk sales is gradually improving due to recent high camel calving rates and milk production is anticipated to start from mid Jan. ’08. However, camel milk prices are expected to decrease due to increased milk availability. The price of one liter of camel milk was $1.05 in Dec.’07 which is 42% above the Dec. ‘06 price of $0.61. The price of a liter of camel milk in Dec. ‘07 is 24% higher compared to the 5-year Dec. average.

Bossaso livestock exports improved significantly following the livestock ban in Dec ’06. However, livestock exported during 2007 is still 14% below 2006 exports (See Livestock sector). This is mostly due to the limitations of loading small vessels during the monsoon, and a disagreement between the local livestock traders, the Puntland authorities, and the Saudi livestock traders. The nutrition situation in most areas in the northeast region is Alert. This indicates some improvement in the populations in Bari region, previously classified as Serious in the Gu ‘07. However, of great concern are IDPs in Bossaso and Galkayo where the nutrition situation is classified as Critical or Very Critical. These elevated rates are due to the specific vulnerabilities faced by these protracted IDP groups. The current situation is consistent with historical data on nutrition surveys conducted in IDPs and rural livelihoods in the northeast region. In addition, in the Addun and Hawd Livelihoods of Mudug and Nugal regions, the nutrition situation has deteriorated from Serious to Critical, due to the current challenges of food insecurity faced by the population in these pastoral livelihoods between July-Dec ’07.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 65 Issued March 7, 2008 Effects on Livelihood Assets

Natural Capital: Spot/NDVI imagery indicates normal vegetation throughout the northeast. The condition of rangelands improved as a result of average to near average rainfall in Deyr ‘07/08. Most berkads and shallow wells in Hawd, Sool and Addun of Jariban are well replenished as a result of average to good Deyr rainfall.

Physical Capital: Poor roads and public infrastructure limits access to Addun, Gagaab, Golis and Deeh LZs, though some feeder roads were established in the Coastal Deeh. Post tsunami boreholes are now operating for human consumption. Livestock from Coastal Deeh, Eyl, transported to Hawd, Nugal Region, Nov. ’07 Social Capital: The signiﬁcant livestock recovery and improvement of livestock prices have reduced the reliance of poor pastoral households on social support. However, very poor households are still receiving lactating animals, as well as restocking from relatives and other types of support, such as zaka. Collection of ﬁrewood, charcoal production and the level of remittances has decreased.

Human Capital: Basic social services such as education and health are limited. Pure pastoralists and poor urban families are not able to afford these services. However, Koranic schools are common and available in almost the entire northeast region. Limited access to veterinary services in most parts of the northeast was reported. Employment opportunities are low in most areas and there is limited access to safe water.

Financial Capital: Livestock herds, mainly sheep and goats, in the ’03-04 drought affected areas have ﬁnally recovered. With the exception of the drought affected livelihood zones of Sool plateau, the actual herd size growth in Hawd of Nugal and Mudug regions is 164% of baseline for camel with and sheep/goat is 179%. Both are projected to increase up to Gu ’08. Average cumulative debts for poor households remained more or less the same as the Gu ‘07 season at 208 US$, due to the high inﬂation rate. Income from camel milk sales started to increase due to the high camel birth at 35-40%. Terms of trade dropped by 45% compared to Dec ’06 and is also 42% lower compared to the 5-year average.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

northeast somalia Pastoralists in northeastern regions mostly rely on food purchase to cover between 60-80% of their food needs. This is primarily imported rice, sugar and oil. The remaining food basket is the result of own production (milk & meat). The primary source of income for these pastoralists is livestock sales (50-65%). Poor pastoralists, supplement this income with employment (20-30%), and sale of livestock products (15-25%). Middle income pastoralists do not engage in employment, but supplement income from livestock sales with the sale of livestock products (35-45%).

Food Sources: Due to livestock herd size recovery and increased production, access to food has improved in terms of consumption and purchases. Food sources from own production increased following a high camel calving rate (70-80% of female adult). This is the most signiﬁcant source of milk, and about 35-40% of the herd is reported to be milking. Expenditure on food purchases has increased due to the increase of staple food prices (See Market sector). However expenditure on water has declined due to the improved water availability including the northern Addun and coastal Deeh. Following the increase in staple food prices, the purchasing power of pastoral communities declined as terms of trade (ToT) of local quality goat and rice fell by 45% and export quality goat prices declined by 31% from Dec.’06 to Dec. ’07. The TOT of the 5-year average to Dec. ‘07 shows a 42% decline.

Income Sources: In Dec. ’07, local quality goat prices are 46% higher and export quality goat prices are up by 31% compared to Dec. ’06. The reason for the higher prices is a stable livestock market as well as good livestock body condition. Income from milk sales is gradually improving, due to increased rates of camel calving. Camel milk production is expected to be high from mid Jan. ‘08 and the price is expected to decrease due to increased avail- Trucks loaded with Fuel and other imported Cargo at ability. The price of one liter of camel milk is currently Bossaso Port, Feb.’08

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 66 Issued March 7, 2008 at 24,000 Shs which is 169% higher when compared to Dec. 06. Income for all pastoralists is expected to be normal; particularly the middle and better off wealth groups. In the mean time the poor households have access to milking animals as gifts.

Nutrition Situation

The nutrition situation in most areas in northeast is Alert. Figure 54: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition However, IDPs in Bossaso and Galkayo are of great con- 2002-2007 in Northeast Region (WHZ<-2 cern as the nutrition situation is classiﬁed as Very Critical. or oedema) Nevertheless, the results are consistent with historical data on nutrition surveys conducted in IDPs settlements and rural livelihoods in the northeast (Figure 54 and 55). In addition, in the Addun and Hawd Livelihoods of Mudug and Nugal regions, the nutrition situation has deteriorated from Serious to Critical.

The key nutrition ﬁndings in these areas are as follows: • Nutrition Assessments: Two nutrition assessments were conducted in October-November 2007 in Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihoods by FSAU and partners, and another nutrition assessment was conducted Figure 55: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition in November ’07 in Bossaso IDP camps by MSF 2001-2007 IDPs in Northest Region (WHZ<-2 Spain. The nutrition assessments in Hawd reported or oedema) a GAM rate of 17.2% (14.1-20.5) and a SAM rate of 1.3% (0.55 – 2.1), while in Addun a GAM rate of northeast somalia 15.9% (12.8-18.9) and SAM rate of 1.6% (0.8-2.6) were reported. These results indicate a deterioration of the nutrition situation from Serious to Critical levels, due to the compounding impact of multiple shocks, including several seasons of below normal rains and high and rapid inﬂation of food and non food commodities, poor health services and poor water and sanitation. In the Bossasso protracted IDP population assessment a GAM rate of 23.3% (18.9-27.6) and a SAM rate of 4.9% (3.5-6.2), were Figure 56: Proportion of children <5 years with reported, indicating a Very Critical nutrition situa- MUAC<12cm in Northeast Region Livelihood tion. The vulnerable situation for the protracted IDP Zones, December 2007 population is complex and chronic in nature due to 10 the lack of livelihood opportunities, appropriate safe water and sanitation facilities, and of health services 5 and limited humanitarian support. •

Rapid MUAC Assessment: Rapid MUAC assess- Proportion ments were conducted in November 2007 in Nugal 0 Valley, Sool Plateau, Golis, Karkaar, Gagaab Liveli- Golis Gagaab Karkaar Coastal Deeh Sool Plateau hood Zones (N=758) and Coastal Deeh Livelihood N=413 N=59 N=140 N=146 N=156 Zone (N=146). Findings indicate that <5% of the assessed children in Golis, Kakaar and Gagaab and Livelihood Zone Sool Plateau and 8.2% in Coastal Deeh were identi- ﬁed as acutely malnourished (MUAC < 12.5cm or oedema). In the Coastal Deeh livelihood, the nutrition situation remains Serious due to poor health services and poor water and sanitation facilities. (Figure 56) • Health Information System: The levels of acutely malnourished children screened at health facilities are stable and remain low (<10%) in most parts of the northeast, except those in the Coastal Deeh livelihood and Bossaso IDP where levels are high. • Morbidity: High incidences of diarrhoea were reported in Hawd (19.6%) and Addun (23.2%) and ARI (24.6%) in Hawd and in Addun (25.8%). The proportion of children reporting an illness in the two weeks prior to the survey was 47.4% in Hawd and 44.2% in Addun respectively. Bossaso IDPs’ health facilities reported an increased incidence of acute watery diarrhoea from the last week of December 2007, which was attributed to the lack of access to potable clean water and poor sanitation. • Dietary diversity: The nutrition assessments conducted in November 2007 revealed poor dietary diversity with low milk consumption with 21.4% and 7% of assessed households in Addun and Hawd respectively, reportedly consuming a less diversiﬁed diet (<4 food groups in the preceding 24 hours to the surveys).

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 67 Issued March 7, 2008 4.4 NORTHWEST REGION Map 28: Northwest Region: Livelihood Systems Overview

All pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in northwest regions remain in the same phase of Generally Food Insecure (GFI) identiﬁed during the post Deyr `07 assessment. Localized areas in Hawd of Togdheer, Nugal Valley, and Sool plateau of Sanag and Sool regions are identiﬁed with Watch, due to the below normal rains in Oct. – Dec.’07 (20-40% RFE), and the anticipated pasture and water shortages in the upcoming Jilaal season (Jan - June ’08). Although immediate humanitarian and livelihood support is not required, these regions need strategic interventions to improve their resilience to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future shocks. Interventions are also needed to readdress structural hindrances to achieving adequate food, nutrition and livelihood security, and address the underlying causes of chronically high malnutrition levels, e.g. dietary diversity, access to health care, clean water and improve caring practices.

Livestock body conditions are good to average in all Map 29: Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation - Northwest regions. Camel calving rates are high with normal daily milk yield, and this improved milk availability and accessibility in all livelihood zones beneﬁts households in terms of consumption and camel milk sales. Sheep and goats kidding rates are low to medium. Livestock holdings have continued to increase over the last four years. As of Dec. ’07, camel herd size increased to 187% of baseline, and sheep and goats to 168% of baseline in Hawd and Golis and Guban livelihood zones. The projection is for a further increase in the coming six months. In Nugaal and Sool plateau, however, camel herd sizes have still not recovered from ‘03-04 severe droughts. FSAU No disease outbreaks have been reported, although, endemic diseases compounded by cold Xays rains have caused deaths among small ruminants in Awdal (Ref. interagency assessment report presented in Hargeisa on 11th Jan. ‘08). Localized livestock migration in search of

northwest somalia pasture and water is observed in the rain deﬁcit area of Togdheer (Balliweyn) and herds have moved to the So- mali region of Ethiopia. Livestock in Sanag south moved to North Togdheer, livestock from Sanag east moved to Bari region, and livestock in the Hawd of Sool moved to Mudug region.

Pastoralists in the northwestern regions have normal access to marketable animals. This has made it possible to offset some of the impact of record high imported food commodities. Despite the price of export quality goats declining by 10% from Dec. ‘06 (38USD/head) to Dec. Good Livestock Body Condition at Water Point, ’07 (34USD/head), the price is still higher than the 5-year Lughaya, Awdal, Nov. ’07 average (27USD/head). In Hargeisa the price of imported rice has almost doubled compared to the 5-year average, resulting in a decline in TOT (goat to cereal) from 66kg (5-year average) to 53kg in Dec ‘07. The total number of livestock exports in 2007 through Berbera port was 1,633,794 heads, which is 31% higher than in 2006 (1,125,683 heads). The export ban on chilled meat from Somalia to the Gulf States has not been ofﬁcially lifted, however, there has been an increase in the volume exported over the last months. In 2007, Burao abattoir exported a total of 70,310 carcasses, which is 42% lower compared to 2006 (121,858 heads).

Integrated analysis of the Deyr ’07/08 nutrition information indicates that the situation remains at Alert levels across all of the livelihood zones in the northwest (Nugal Valley, Sool plateau, Hawd, Guban, and the agro-pastoral) except for Lasanod and Taleex where insufﬁcient data was collected as a result of recent insecurity, hindering integrated analysis. The Golis and Gebi pastoral livelihood showed a likelihood of deterioration during the post Gu ’07 analysis and has improved and is currently at Alert level.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 68 Issued March 7, 2008 Effects on Livelihood Asset

Natural Capital: Generally, rangeland recovery improved and water availability increased as a result of normal rains received in most parts of livelihood zones in northwest. Current pasture availability can be described as good to average in Golis-Guban, Southern/western part of Hawd, but poor in rain deﬁcit areas and expected to deteriorate following dry Jilaal season such as Balliweyn areas of Northern part of Hawd LZ and some parts of Sool Plateau and Nugal valley in Sool region are facing acute water shortage due to below normal rains in Oct-Dec ‘07 (20-40% RFE). Poor Deyr ’07/08 Rainfall, Baliweyn, South East Burao, Togdheer, Nov ’07 Physical Capital: Generally, the road network is good with exceptions in some parts of Golis, Guban and Gebbi valley LZ. In these areas there is limited market access, reducing supplies of staple and non -staple commodities with resulting increased prices due to high transportation costs. Most Berkads in the Hawd LZ and Sool plateau are broken due of poor maintenance resulting in limited water storage capacity. Main boreholes that serve large populations are not functional and these include Awrbogeys, Baragaghaqol, Ceel buh, Qabrihuluul, Kalowle and Karuure, all of which need immediate rehabilitation.

Social Capital: As a result of recovery in herd sizes and good harvest, both pastoral and agro-pastoral communities are able to meet their needs, and there is little dependence on social support. IDPs from Lasanod, however, are put- ting an additional burden on host communities in Sanag, Sool and Togdheer regions, although it is reported that the provision of social support to the IDPs is strong. northwest somalia

Human Capital: In the rural areas basic social services are limited, especially access to health and education. Currently there are no disease outbreaks, however malaria and acute respiratory infections are reported. Labor opportunities were high in the agro-pastoral areas, due to harvesting, husking, and threshing of grains providing poor Households some income.

Financial Capital: Due to favorable climatic conditions over recent years there has been an increase in livestock holdings. In Hawd, Golis and Guban livelihood zones, camel recovery is 182-192% of baseline and sheep/goats 163-173% of baseline in Hawd and Guban-Golis LZs of Togdheer/Galbeed and Awdal. The exception is Sool plateau of Sanag and Sool regions, where camel baseline herd size did not recover from the ‘03-‘04 droughts and have not reached baseline levels. Household debt has decreased to 51USD, as a result of high repayment from livestock sales.

Effects on Livelihood Strategies

Under normal conditions pastoralists in these regions rely on food purchases to cover between 60-80% for their food needs in a given year, primarily imported rice, sugar, and oil. Their livestock’s products (i.e. milk and meat) make up the remaining food basket. Poor pastoralists’ gain income from 50-65% of livestock sales, while 25-30% is from employment and 15-25% is from livestock product sales. Middle and better-off pastoralist households, generally, earn most of their income from livestock and livestock product sales.

Food Sources: Due to normal rainfall in most parts of NW zone there has been normal milk availability from camels which started calving in early Dec. ‘07 to Jan. ‘08. Favorable seasonal conditions over the last 4 years have resulted in increased herd sizes. As a consequence of the extended Gu/Karan rains received in agro-pastoral areas of Galbeed, Awdal and Togdheer regions crop production is good and 6% higher than the projected crop establishment from the Post Gu ‘07 assessment. Average household cereal stocks will last up to 9 months regardless of wealth group.

The main food source for pastoral households is market purchase, primarily imported food commodities, such as rice, wheat ﬂour, sugar and vegetable oil. The price of rice in Hargeisa has increased by 31% in Dec. ‘07 (0.6USD/ Kg) compared to Dec. ‘06(0.4USD/Kg), while in Burao the rice price increased by 36% from Dec ‘06 (0.45USD/ Kg)to Dec ‘07(0.7USD/Kg) The result is a decline in TOT (goat to cereal) from 66kg (5 year average) to 53kg in Dec ’07 (Figure 57).

Income Sources: Income from livestock sales is generally high for both export and local quality goats. This is due to high export demand (Ramadan and Hajj ) and high demand in local markets. Prices in all main markets for export quality goat are higher than the 5-year Dec. average (‘02-06). Income from milk sales started to increase steadily due to high camel calving which started in early Dec.’07.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 69 Issued March 7, 2008 Agro-pastoralists will have high income from good cereal sales and the good harvest of cash crops such as tomato, watermelon, and vegetables. Gu/Karan ‘07 crop harvest is 149% of PWA and 127% of 5-year average (’02 - 06). Income from labor opportunities in agro-pastoral areas for poor HHs was relatively high due in crop harvesting, threshing, husking and fodder grass cutting activities.

Coping Strategies: No distress social support is reported Figure 57: Northwest Region Terms of Trade Imported within the pastoral communities; however IDPs from Rice to Export Quality Goat (2002-2007) Lasanod town are widespread in Sool, Sanag and Togd- heer which is adding pressure on the host communities. Currently there is strong internal social support to IDPs, and from the Diaspora, in terms of food sharing and ﬁnancial remittances.

Nutrition Situation

An integrated analysis of the Deyr ’07/08 nutrition information indicates that the situation remains at Alert levels in Nugal Valley, Sool/Sanaag Plateau, Hawd, Guban, and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The Golis and Gebi pastoral livelihood that showed a likelihood Figure 58: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition 2002-2006 in Northwest Region (WHZ<-2 of deterioration during the Gu ’07 analysis has improved or oedema) and currently is at Alert level. Due to security restrictions, there is insufﬁcient data available for Lasanod and Taleh Districts and Buhodle town; hence these areas have been left blank on the Nutrition Situation map (Map 13, Nutri- tion Section).

FSAU conducted nutrition assessments in September 2007 in the protracted IDP camps in Hargeisa, Burao and Berbera. The nutrition situation remains Critical for the protracted IDPs in Berbera and Burao, and Serious for Hargeisa IDPs. This is consistent with the historical data on nutrition surveys conducted in these North West Figure 59: Trends in Levels of Acute Malnutrition protracted IDP settlements (Figure 58 and 59). 2002-2007 IDPs in Northwest Region (WHZ<-2 or oedema)

northwest somalia The Key Nutrition Findings in these areas: • Nutrition Assessments: In the northwest, three nutrition assessments were conducted in Sep- tember 2007 in Hargeisa, Berbera, and Burao protracted IDP populations. The Hargeisa assessment reported a GAM rate of 10.3% (8.4 – 12.2) and a SAM rate of 1.1% (0.5 – 1.7). Though on the borderline, results indicate a Serious nutrition situation, according to WHO classification, and a slight deterioration from the findings of September 2005 that reported a GAM of 7.6%. An exhaustive nutrition assessment conducted in September Figure 60: Proportion of children <5 years with 2007 in Berbera settlements, indicated a GAM MUAC<12cm in Northwest Region Livelihood rate 16.0% with a SAM rate of 0.6%. These rates Zones, December 2007 are indicate a Critical nutrition situation and are similar to findings from a nutrition assessment conducted in March 2006 in the same area where a GAM rate of 16.3% was reported. In Burao IDP settlements an exhaustive nutrition assessment conducted in September 2007 reported a GAM rate of 15.8% and a SAM rate of 1.4%. Similar to Berbera, these results indicate a Critical nutrition situation and are consistent with the levels seen in protracted displaced and urban poor groups in Somaliland, hence, they do not indicate a significant change. These results are likely to be linked to the limited access to basic health services, reduced livelihood opportuni-

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 70 Issued March 7, 2008 ties, and poor water and sanitation facilities. • Rapid MUAC assessment: Rapid MUAC assessments were conducted in November 2007 in 17 villages in Sool/Sanag Plateau (N=1661), 9 villages in Nugal Valley (N=763), Galbeed Pastoral (N=423), Golis/Gebi (N=400) Pastoral, Togdheer agro-pastoral, (N=747) livelihoods of Northwest zones. Findings indicate the proportion of children identiﬁed as acutely malnourished (MUAC < 12.5 cm) as follows: Galbeed agro-pastoral 1.6%; Toghdeer agro-pastoral 0.6%, Awdal agro- pastoral 4.1%, Hawd of Togdheer 1.1%, Galbeed Pastoral 9.3%, Awdal Coastal 5.2%, Sool Plateau Sanag 5.4%, and Nugal Valley 3.0%. These results indicate an Alert nutrition situation. Acute malnutrition in these areas is attributed to limited MUAC Assessment, Haji Salah Village Togdher Region, dietary diversity for the IDPs, reduced livelihood Nov.’07 opportunities, limited access to basic health ser- vice, poor water and sanitation, and low immunization coverage for all the livelihoods (Figure 60). • Health Information System: The level of acutely malnourished children screened at health facilities remains low and stable. • Dietary Diversity: The majority of the population in all livelihoods are able to access meat, milk (although in limited quantities in the Jilaal season), and cereals. For the IDPs, their diet is limited to cereals and the increased price for cereal intensiﬁes concern for their well-being. northwest somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 71 Issued March 7, 2008 LOT QUALITY ASSURANCE SAMPLING (LQAS): PILOT STUDY IN HARGEISA IDPS

Background Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is a method of sampling, derived from the manufacturing industry for assessing quality of lots (or batches) of products. Originally, the LQAS method was developed in the 1920s as a quality control technique for industrially produced goods, but by the 1980s its sampling concepts were recognized as having universal applications. It is now being used all over the world to assess coverage in communities with programs in maternal and child health, family planning and HIV/AIDS; the quality of health workers performance and even disease prevalence. LQAS is based on the principle that inspection of a small, representative sample of a lot will allow for the acceptance or rejection of the entire lot with high probability, should the number of defective goods in that sample exceed a predetermined allowable number. Hence with LQAS, small sample sizes are used to inform decision makers of individual defective lots, and proportions thereof at aggregate level1.

More recently the principle of LQAS has been explored in the estimation of the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition. In emergency settings, governments and humanitarian organizations need reliable and timely data MUAC Assessment, Haji Salah Village about the nutritional status of the population. The sampling method tradi- Togdher Region, Nov.’07 tionally used to assess the prevalence of acute malnutrition in emergencies is a 30 x 30 cluster survey. This method provides statistically reliable results if implemented correctly, however, with a sample size requirement of 900, it can be time-consuming and expensive to carry out. A study by FANTA, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), and Ohio State University (OSU)2, field-tested the use of the LQAS designs in an emergency setting in Ethiopia. The study concluded that LQAS designs provide statistically appropriate alternatives to the more time-consuming 30X30 cluster survey though additional field testing is necessary. FSAU therefore undertook to pilot and field-test the LQAS methodology among IDPs in Hargeisa in August-September 2007 in order to explore its application in the nutrition surveillance system in Somalia.

Methodology A 33 by 6 cross-sectional assessment was conducted alongside a 30 by 30 assessment among protracted displaced populations concentrated in seven settlements3 in Hargeisa town of Somaliland. Two-stage cluster (33 by 6) sampling methodology was used to select 6 children aged 6-59 months from each of 33 clusters. The sampling frame comprised a listing of all camps within each of the seven settlements together with their respective population sizes, to construct cumulative population ﬁgures for the assessment area. From this 33 clusters were randomly drawn using the Nutrisurvey software. The EPI method was used for the second stage sampling of households and children. Quantitative data was collected through a standard household questionnaire for nutrition assessment and included household characteristics, child anthropometry, morbidity; health programmes coverage; dietary diversity; and access to water and sanitation. Qualitative data was collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews to provide further under- standing of possible factors inﬂuencing nutritional status. All eligible children in the sampled households were assessed giving a total of 204 children. Household and child data was entered, processed (including cleaning) and analysed using EPI6 software.

Results and Discussion Acute malnutrition rate (WHZ<-2 and/or oedema) of 9.6% (CI: 6.1 – 13.1) was reported from 198 children assessed using the LQAS (33X6) design compared to GAM rate of 10.3% (CI: 8.4 – 12.2) from the conventional 30X30 design. Overall, the 33X6 LQAS design produced more or less similar results (conﬁdence limits overlapping) to the conventional 30X30 design for both child data (malnutrition, morbidity and health programmes coverage) and household data (household dietary diversity; access to water and access to sanitation facility). However, the conﬁdence intervals are generally wider for LQAS than for 30X30 design, while the standard error is generally higher for the LQAS results. Again as expected the design effects were generally lower for LQAS design.

Because of the similarity of findings based on the traditional 30 x 30 and the LQAs sampling methodologies, and the less resource and time demands of the latter method, LQAS could be adopted in the Nutrition surveillance system for Somalia to fill information gaps during the seasonal (post Gu and post Deyr) assessments and for areas with limited accessibility. However, more field tests are required in rural areas and are therefore planned for 2008. These studies will be reported on in subsequent FSAU Nutrition Updates.

1 Hoshaw-Woodard, 2001 2 International Journal of Epidemiology: A Field Test of Three LQAS Designs to Assess the Prevalence of Acute Malnutrition; May 2007. 3 Ayaha; Aw Aden; Sheikh Nur; Daami; Mohamed Mooge; Stadium and State House.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 72 Issued March 7, 2008 5. APPENDIX

5.1 BACKGROUND AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION Since February 2004 the Food Security Analysis Unit for Somalia (FSAU) has been progressively developing and using a tool to classify different food security situations, called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation (IPC). The strength of the IPC to describe the current or imminent situation in Somalia, as well as inﬂuence interventions, programme and policy decisions has sparked a movement to establish the IPC as a tool that can accommodate a wide variety of country and institutional settings.

Given the success of the IPC in Somalia, a number of food security-oriented agencies formed an initial global partner- ship for the further roll-out and development of the IPC, including: FAO, WFP, USAID-funded FEWS NET, Oxfam GB, CARE, SCF-UK/US, and the Joint Research Center of the European Union. Together with national governments, these international agencies and many others at regional and national levels are collaborating to continue the development and roll-out of the IPC in other countries.

In late 2007 a decision was made by the International IPC Steering Committee to introduce some technical improvements and changes to the IPC. These changes are based on extensive feedback from technical experts in countries involved in the IPC roll-out and IPC global partner agencies, as well as from the feedback from technical discussions during an IPC On-Line Forum (a web based discussion on the IPC for a month in February 2007), the IPC International Workshop in Rome in March 2007, and from the Greater Horn of Africa Regional Food Security and Nutrition Working Group. Numer- ous technical experts in the nutrition and food security community have made contributions. This resulted in a number of structural revisions and the standardization of the cartographic protocols of the IPC.

The modiﬁcations to the IPC are as follows:

Structural Revisions appendix

Change the name of the IPC from “Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian 0"E 44°0'0"E 47°0'0"E 50°0 Current or Imminent Phase Phase Classification” to “Integrated Food Security Phase Classification”. 1A Generally Food Secure • Add an optional differentiation of Phase 1 (Generally Food Secure) into Phase 1B Generally Food Secure 1A and 1B. • Change the name of Phase 2 from ‘Chronically Food Insecure’ to ‘Generally 2 Generally Food Insecure Food Insecure’. 3 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis • Change the naming of the categories that accompany the reference table for 4 Humanitarian Emergency early warning from ‘Early Warning Levels’ to ‘Risk of Worsening Phase’. 5 Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe Risk of Worsening Phase Cartographic Protocols .Coloured diagonal lines indicate Watch • Move the ‘Projected Trend’ from the call-out boxes to white arrows directly shift in Phase Moderate Risk .Black lines indicate worsening on each crisis area of the map. High Risk magnitude only • Within the key for the Defining Attributes of Crisis Areas, rearrange the order Projected Trend of the variables and add a basic description of the variables on the left side Improving Situation Worsening Situation to highlight: magnitude, depth, who, why, frequency, date, and confidence. No Change Mixed Situation • Add a new option to visually distinguish broad categories of magnitude (i.e., Sustained Phase 3, 4 or 5 for > 3 yrs numbers of people in crisis) using different font sizes for populations ranging Areas of Old IDP Concentrations prior to from 0-100,000, 101,000-500,000, and >500,000. January, 2008 Areas of New IDP Concentrations in Acute Food • Add a new protocol to the call-out boxes to indicate the depth of a crisis by and Livelihood Crisis and Humanitarian inserting a stacked bar graph on the right side of each call-out box that displays Emergency as of January 2008 NOTES: the estimated population percentage in each from Phase 1 through 5. 1. Estimated populations do not include IDP or Urban estimates, and are rounded to the nearest 10,000 • Add a new protocol to the call-out boxes to indicate the Frequency or Recur- 2. For category explanations see http://www.fsausomali.org Datum: WGS84, Data Source: FSAU, 2007, Admin. layers: UNDP, 1998, rence of Crisis over the past ten years, with categories of Low (1-2 years), Updated: Nov, 2007 Moderate (3-4 years), and High (>=5 years).

Components of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classiﬁcation The IPC summarizes Situation Analysis, a distinct, yet often overlooked (or assumed) stage of the food security analysis- response continuum. Situation Analysis is a foundational stage whereby fundamental aspects (severity, causes, magnitude, etc) of a situation are identiﬁedóaspects for which there is optimally broad-based consensus by key stakeholders including governments, UN and NGO agencies, donors, the media, and target communities.

The analytical logic of the IPC is that varying phases of food security and humanitarian situations are classiﬁed based on outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Outcomes are a function of both immediate hazard events along with underlying

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 73 Issued March 7, 2008 5.1.2 INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION REFERENCE TABLE Key Reference Outcomes Strategic Response Framework Phase Current or imminent outcomes on lives and livelihoods. Based on Objectives: Classification convergence of direct and indirect evidence rather than absolute (1) mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) support thresholds. Not all indicators must be present. livelihoods, and (3) address underlying causes Crude Mortality Rate < 0.5 / 10,000 / day 1A Generally Food Acute Malnutrition <3 % (w/h <-2 z-scores) Strategic assistance to pockets of food insecure groups Stunting <20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) Investment in food and economic production systems Secure Food Access/ Availability usually adequate (> 2,100 kcal ppp day), stable Enable development of livelihood systems based on principles Dietary Diversity consistent quality and quantity of diversity of sustainability, justice, and equity Water Access/Avail. usually adequate (> 15 litres ppp day), stable Prevent emergence of structural hindrances to food security 1B Generally Food Hazards moderate to low probability and vulnerability Advocacy Secure Civil Security prevailing and structural peace Livelihood Assets generally sustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Crude Mortality Rate <0.5/10,000/day; U5MR<1/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >3% but <10 % (w/h <-2 z-score), usual range, stable Design & implement strategies to increase stability, resistance Stunting >20% (h/age <-2 z-scores) and resilience of livelihood systems, thus reducing risk Food Access/ Availability borderline adequate (2,100 kcal ppp day); unstable Provision of ‘safety nets’ to high risk groups Generally Dietary Diversity chronic dietary diversity deficit Interventions for optimal and sustainable use of livelihood assets 2 Water Access/Avail. borderline adequate (15 litres ppp day); unstable Create contingency plan Food Insecure Hazards recurrent, with high livelihood vulnerability Redress structural hindrances to food security Civil Security Unstable; disruptive tension Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘insurance strategies’ Advocacy Livelihood Assets stressed and unsustainable utilization (of 6 capitals) Structural Pronounced underlying hindrances to food security Crude Mortality Rate 0.5-1 /10,000/day, U5MR 1-2/10,000/dy Support livelihoods and protect vulnerable groups Acute Malnutrition 10-15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Strategic and complimentary interventions to immediately food Disease epidemic; increasing access/availability AND support livelihoods Food Access/ Availability lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., Acute Food Dietary Diversity acute dietary diversity deficit water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) 3 and Livelihood Water Access/Avail. 7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping Strategic interventions at community to national levels to create, Crisis Destitution/Displacement emerging; diffuse stabilize, rehabilitate, or protect priority livelihood assets Civil Security limited spread, low intensity conflict Create or implement contingency plan Coping ‘crisis strategies’; CSI > than reference; increasing Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Advocacy 1-2 / 10,000 / day, >2x reference rate, increasing; Crude Mortality Rate U5MR > 2/10,000/day Acute Malnutrition >15 % (w/h <-2 z-score), > than usual, increasing Urgent protection of vulnerable groups Disease Pandemic Urgently food access through complimentary interventions

appendix Food Access/ Availability severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Humanitarian Selected provision of complimentary sectoral support (e.g., 4 Dietary Diversity Regularly 3 or fewer main food groups consumed water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) Emergency Water Access/Avail. < 7.5 litres ppp day (human usage only) Protection against complete livelihood asset loss and/or Destitution/Displacement concentrated; increasing advocacy for access Civil Security widespread, high intensity conflict Close monitoring of relevant outcome and process indicators Coping ‘distress strategies’; CSI significantly > than reference Use ‘crisis as opportunity’ to redress underlying structural causes Livelihood Assets near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access Advocacy

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 74 Issued March 7, 2008 causes, and the specific vulnerabilities of livelihood systems (including both livelihood assets and livelihood strategies). The outcomes are referenced against internationally accepted standards, and their convergence substantiates a phase classification for any given area. Each phase is associated with a unique strategic response framework, while the outcome configuration for any given situation guides the development of the most appropriate responses within that framework. While the phase classification describes the current or imminent situation for a given area, early warning levels are a predictive tool to communicate the risk of a worsening phase. Risk is a function of the probability of a hazard event, exposure, and the specific vulnerabilities of livelihood systems.

The IPC Reference Table guides analysis for both the Phase Classiﬁcation and Early Warning Levels. The Phase Classiﬁcation is divided into six Phasesó1AGenerally Food Secure, 1B Generally Food Secure, Generally Food Insecure, Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, Humanitarian Emergency, and Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe. The six phases are general enough to accommodate a wide range of causes, livelihood systems, and political/economic contextsóyet their distinction captures essential differences in implications for action (including strategic design, urgency, and ethical imperative).

A comprehensive set of Key Reference Outcomes on human welfare and livelihoods are associated with each Phase to guide the classiﬁcation, including: crude mortality rate, acute malnutrition, disease, food access/availability, dietary diversity, water access/availability, destitution and displacement, civil security, coping, and livelihood assets. The breadth of outcomes enables triangulation and ensures adaptability of the IPC to a wide variety of situations. Referencing the outcomes to international standards ensures comparability and consistency of the phase classiﬁcation in different countries and contexts. The Strategic Response Framework unique to each Phase provides strategic, yet generic guidance to achieve three objectives: (1) mitigate immediate negative outcomes, (2) support livelihoods, and (3) address underlying/ structural causes. The Reference Table also includes three levels indicating a Risk of Worsening Phase: (1) Watch, (2) Moderate Risk, and (3) High Risk. Each of these is associated with key information required for effective early warning: Probability, Severity, Reference Hazards and Vulnerabilities, Implications for Action, and Timeline.

The Analysis Templates are tables which organize key pieces of information in a transparent manner and facilitate analysis to substantiate a Phase Classification and guide response analysis. The Cartographic Protocols are a set of standardized mapping and visual communication conventions which are designed to effectively convey key information concerning appendix situation analysis on a single map. The Population Tables are a means to consistently and effectively communicate population estimates by administrative boundaries, livelihood systems, and livelihood types. The IPC is not an assessment method, per se, but a classification system for Situation Analysis that integrates multiple data sources, methods, and analyses (example options for specific assessment methodologies include those endorsed by WFP, ICRC, Save the Chil- dren UK, and many others). Effective use of the IPC encourages a mixed-method approach which is obligatory given the complexity of the analysis and the need for triangulation. In this manner, the IPC provides a consistent and meaningful structure to the final statement. To substantiate an IPC statement, whatever the specific methodologies, the legitimacy of data sources and analytical methods is rigorously evaluated and reflected in the overall confidence level.

Sustained Conditions: In general, the longer a crisis continues the relatively more Defining Attributes of Crisis essential it is to address underlying or structural causes if interventions have any Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 chance of sustained positive effects. A purple border denotes areas of ìsustainedî Population in Phase (Includes High Risk) levels of crisis in Phase 3, 4, or 5 for greater than three years (though an arbitrary 0-100,000 101,000-500,000 >500,000 threshold, it is inclusive of several seasonal cycles). By hi-lighting these areas, it Magnitude -100% Percent population informs the type of strategic response and draws attention to ìforgotten emergenciesî in respective phase for which complacency may have set in. Depth

-0% Criteria for Social Targeting Defining Attributes of Crisis Areas. For each area currently in or at risk of Phase 3, i Livelihood system Who 4, or 5 a call-out box is included with situation specifics related to the magnitude, ii Wealth group iii Gender depth, frequency, who is affected, the causes and confidence level of the analysis. Key Immediate Causes A symbol key is provided for each defining attribute, including: a Drought b Floods - Estimated magnitude (i.e., population in phase which includes high risk) c Tsunami - Criteria for social targeting d Civil Insecurity e Market Disruptions - Key immediate causes Why f Disease Outbreaks - Key underlying causes g Population Influx Key Underlying Causes - Recurrence of crisis in past 10 years (which allows for distinction between A Post State Conflict B Environmental Degradation chronic and transitory food insecurity) C Social Marginalization - Overall confidence level of analysis (which is an overall, heuristic state- Recurrence of Crisis in Past 10 yrs ment on the confidence of the analysis as assessed by the analyst) Low(1-2yrs), Moderate(3-4), High (>= 5) Frequency The key is generic, whereas the call-out boxes contain the specific attributes relevant Confidence Level of Analysis to that crisis area. The attributes currently include those which have relevance to * Low * * Medium * * * High various places in Somalia. However, this can easily be expanded to suit a wider Confidence array of situations.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 75 Issued March 7, 2008 5.2 TIME-SERIES OF THE INTEGRATED PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS (IPC) MAPS FOR SOMALIA 2004 – 2007

Post Gu 2005 Post Deyr 2005/06

Post Gu 2006 Post Deyr 2006/07 appendix

Post Gu 2007 Post Deyr 2007/08

Calula Gulf of Aden BOSSASO !. Qandala Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye ERIGABO AWDAL !. Iskushuban Baki Borama Berbera SANAG BORAMA Ceel Afweyne BARI !. W. GALBEED Sheikh Ceerigaabo Gebiley HARGEYSA BURAO !. !. Qardho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Caynabo Talex TOGDHEER Burco SOOL Laas Caanood Garowe Buuhoodle !.LAS ANOD !.GAROWE

Eyl NUGAL Burtinle

Jariiban Goldogob Galkacyo GALKAYO (!.

!( !( Cadaado MUDUG Cabudwaaq Hobyo DUSAMAREB !(!. Indian Ocean Dhusa Mareeb !( GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Harardheere Ceel Barde Beled!(!. Weyne !( BAKOOL Ceel Bur !( Rab- Xudur Dhuure !( !.HUDUR HIIRAN Ceel Dheere Dolo Luuq Wajid Bulo Barde a !( !( !( w !(a Aden Yabal

GARBAHAREY Tayeglow Baydhaba Jalalaqsi ed H !. !( Cadale Garbaharey BAIDOA Bel !(!. Qansax Jowhar!( M. SHABELLE Dheere !( Wanle Weyne !.JOWHAR GEDO!( BAY !( Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba !(Balcad!( Dinsor Afgoye Baardheere !( BANADIR Qoryoley!( Sakow Kurtun Warrey !(Marka!.

M. JUBA BU'AALESablale !. L. SHABELLE Bu'aale Brava!( KENYA L. JUBA!( Afmadow Jilib

Jamaame

KISMAAYO Kismayo !.

Badhadhe ± 030609012015015

Kilometers

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 76 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3 PROGRESSION OF THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION BY REGION FROM Gu 2007 TO Deyr ’07/08

5.3.1 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08. IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 UNDP 2005 Total Gedo Affected District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Baardheere 106,172 15,000 17,000 13,000 0 Belet Xaawo 55,989 24,000 2,000 8,000 2,000 Ceel Waaq 19,996 0 0 0 0 appendix Doolow 26,495 11,000 1,000 4,000 1,000 Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 57,023 22,000 2,000 7,000 1,000 Luuq 62,703 7,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 SUB-TOTAL 328,378 79,000 27,000 36,000 8,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 106,000 44,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Popula- Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Gedo Region and Affected Acute Food tion of Affected Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Zones and Livelihood Livelihood Zones Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency Crisis (HE) (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral 26,607 7,000 11,000 9,000 0 Dawa Pastoral 81,654 49,000 0 16,000 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 11,000 8,000 7,000 4,000 Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,751 12,000 8,000 4,000 4,000 Southern Inland Pastoral 75,828 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 247,076 79,000 27,000 36,000 8,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 106,000 44,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group AFLC Phase Livelihood Zones HE Phase Livelihood Zones Specific Areas or J.P./ Region Timeline Dawa J.P./Shabelle S./Central BB S.I. Dawa S./Central BB Districts S.I. Pastoral Shabelle Pastoral Riverine Agropast Agropast Pastoral Pastoral Agropa Agropast Riverine Northern districts: Pop affected; 100% Dolow, Belet 0% 50% - P 25% - P 50% - M 25% - P 25% - P 0% 0% 75% - P 50% - P 50% - P Jan - June Xaawo and Luuq, 50% 2008 Garbaharey (Deyr 07-08 Southern districts: Pop af- Projection) Gedo fected; 100% Bardera and 0% 50% - P 50% - P 50% - P 50% - P 0% 0% 0% Elwak, 50% Garbaharee

July - Dec 100% - P, 25% - P, 25% - P, 2007 0% 25% - P, 50% M 0% 0% 75% - P 75% - P 75% - P 50% - M 50% M 50% M (Gu07 Proj)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 77 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.2 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08. IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones Baardheere

Sakow ) Ku M. JUBA Sabl ) Bu'aale L. JUBA

Afmadow Jilib )

Jamaame

Kismayo )

Badhadhe

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Emer- Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis gency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Middle Juba Bu’aale 59,489 20,000 0 5,000 0 Jilib 113,415 31,000 0 14,000 0 Saakow/Salagle 65,973 15,000 0 3,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 238,877 66,000 0 22,000 0 Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 51,334 10,000 0 9,000 0 Badhaadhe 38,640 12,000 0 7,000 0 Jamaame 129,149 35,000 0 31,000 11,000 Kismaayo 166,667 21,000 0 15,000 2,000 SUB-TOTAL 385,790 78,000 0 62,000 13,000 GRAND TOTAL 624,667 144,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 144,000 97,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Popula- Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone tion of Affected Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian appendix Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 10,000 0 3,000 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 3,000 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 18,232 11,000 0 4,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 8,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 34,000 0 15,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 66,000 0 22,000 0 Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 21,000 0 21,000 0 South-East Pastoral 38,810 22,000 0 9,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 2,000 0 4,000 0 Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 33,000 0 28,000 13,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 78,000 0 62,000 13,000 GRAND TOTAL 445,246 144,000 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 144,000 97,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE Phase Livelihood Zones Speciﬁc Areas or J.P./ J.P/L. J.P./ S./ J.P/L. Region Timeline S.I. S.E. S./Central L. Juba S.I. S.E. L. Juba Districts Shabelle Shabelle Shabelle Central Shabelle Pastoral Past Agropast Agropast Pastoral Past Agropast Riverine Irrigated Riverine Agropa Irrigated Middle Juba: Pop affected; 100% 75% 0% 50% - P 0% 0% 50% - P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Sakow and Buale, - P 50% South Jilib Jan - June Lower Juba: Pop 2008 affected; 100% (Deyr 07-08 Kismayo, Afmadow Projection) 75% 25% - P 25% - P Juba and Jamaame; 0% 100% - P 100% - P 0% 0% 75% - P 0% 0% 75% - P - P 75% - M 75% - M 50% North Jilib-- but Riverine is 0% in HE July - Dec 100% - 100% - P, 100% - P, 2007 0% P, 50% 50% - P 100% - P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% - M 50% - M (Gu07 Proj) - M

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 78 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08. IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones

Ceel Barde B BAKOOL Rab- Xudur Dhuure ) olo Luuq ) Wajid

Baydhaba Tayeglow

Garbaharey )

Qansax) Dheere ) Wanle BAY

) Bur Hakaba Dinsor Af e Qoryoley ) w Mark) a ) Kurtun Warrey) UBA Sablale

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE Bakool Ceel Barde 29,179 2,000 0 1,000 1,000 Rab Dhuure 37,652 8,000 0 12,000 4,000 Tayeeglow 81,053 27,000 0 27,000 0 Waajid 69,694 18,000 0 25,000 2,000 Xudur 93,049 27,000 0 27,000 0 SUB-TOTAL 310,627 82,000 0 92,000 7,000 Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 320,463 2,000 0 24,000 0

Buur Hakaba 125,616 1,000 0 00appendix Diinsoor 75,769 1,000 0 00 Qansax Dheere 98,714 0 0 00 SUB-TOTAL 620,562 4,000 0 24,000 0 GRAND TOTAL 931,189 86,000 0 24,000 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 86,000 123,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Popula- Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone tion of Affected Acute Food Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Zones and Livelihood Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency Crisis (HE (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro- Bakool 16,098 9,000 1,000 Past 10,000 0 Southern Agro-Past 167,643 72,000 0 83,000 6,000 Southern Inland Past 65,448 00 00 SUB-TOTAL 249,189 92,000 7,000 82,000 0 Bay-Bakool-Bardera Agro- Bay 274,649 00 Past 00 South-East Pastoral 26,923 4,000 0 00 Southern Agro-Past 156,232 0024,000 0 Southern Inland Past 35,945 00 00 SUB-TOTAL 493,749 4,000 0 24,000 0 GRAND TOTAL 742,938 86,000 0 24,000 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 86,000 123,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE PHASE Livelihood Zones Region Timeline Speciﬁc Areas or Districts S.I. Pas- S./Central S./Central BB S.E. Past BB Agropast S.I. Pastoral S.E. Past toral Agropast Agropa Agropast Pop affected; 100% Xudur 100% - P, 100% - P, Jan - June and Tayeeglow, North 75% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% - M 25% - M 2008 Waajid Bakool (Deyr 07-08 Pop affected; 100% Rab 50% - P 50% - P Projection) Dhuure, 50% Ceel Berde, 0% 0% 50% - P 50% - P 75% - M 75% - M South 25% Waajid 100% of the Poor for all Jul – Dec 2007 Agro-Pastoral areas; 25% 100% - P, 100% - P, 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2007 Proj) of the Poor for Huddur and 25% - M 25% - M Tieglow Jan - June 2008 100% - P, Bay Pop affected; 75% Baidoa 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 07-08 25% - M Projection) Jul – Dec 2007 50% - P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2007 Proj)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 79 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.4 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Shabelle Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08.

IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones

) Ceel Bu GALGAD BAKOOL ab-Dhuure HIIRAN Xudur!. Ceel Barde Beled Weyne Ceel D BAKOOL Ceel Bur Wajid Bulo Barde Rab- Xudur Dhuure ) HIIRAN Ceel Dheer Aden Yabal Bulo Barde Tay eglow uq Jalalaqsi Wajid ) Baydhaba BAIDOA Aden Yabal !. Cadale 3°0'0"N Baydhaba 3°0'0"N JowharM. SHABELLE Tayeglow ) Dheere JOWHAR Wanle Weyne !. y Jalalaqsi Cadale ) BAY Jowhar) M. SHABELLE sax) Bur Hakaba Balcad eere ) Wanle Weyne ) BAY Afgoye BANADIR or "/ Bur Hakaba MOGADISHU ) Balcad Qoryoley

nsor Afgoye !. ) BANADIR Kurtun Warrey Marka ) Qoryoley ) A Sablale Kurtun WarreyMarka) L. SHABELLE ) le Brava Sablale L.) SHABELLE 'aale Brava) Jilib

Jilib me 0" 0"

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

UNDP 2005 To- Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and District tal Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE) Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Emergency (HE) (AFLC) M/ Shabelle Adan Yabaal 62,917 6,000 6,000 4,000 6,000 Balcad/Warsheikh 136,007 16,000 24,000 12,000 24,000 Cadale 46,720 4,000 3,000 2,000 3,000 Jowhar/Mahaday 269,257 35,000 53,000 20,000 54,000 SUB-TOTAL 514,901 61,000 86,000 38,000 87,000 Afgooye/Aw L/ Shabelle 211,712 20,000 39,000 20,000 39,000 Dheegle Baraawe 57,652 5,000 8,000 5,000 8,000 Kurtunwaarey 55,445 5,000 12,000 5,000 11,000 Marka 192,939 15,000 35,000 15,000 35,000 Qoryooley 134,205 13,000 28,000 13,000 28,000 Sablaale 43,055 4,000 8,000 4,000 8,000 Wanla Weyn 155,643 29,000 37,000 24,000 28,000 SUB-TOTAL 850,651 91,000 167,000 86,000 157,000 GRAND TOTAL 1,365,552 152,000 253,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 405,000 368,000

appendix Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Estimated Popula- Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 tion of Affected Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Emer- Livelihood Zones Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis gency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) M/ Shabelle Central Agro-Past 36,695 10,000 9,000 6,000 9,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 93,722 0 0 0 0 Shabelle riverine 53,657 7,000 21,000 7,000 22,000 Southern Agro-Past 160,948 44,000 56,000 25,000 56,000 Southern Inland Past 74,048 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 419,070 61,000 86,000 38,000 87,000 Coastal pastoral: L/ Shabelle 2,534 0 0 0 0 goats & cattle L.Shab. r/fed & f/irr 372,273 46,000 84,000 47,000 83,000 Shabelle riverine 115,552 15,000 46,000 15,000 46,000 South-East Pastoral 6,884 1,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Past 106,902 29,000 37,000 24,000 28,000 Southern Inland Past 73,793 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 677,937 91,000 167,000 86,000 157,000 GRAND TOTAL 1,097,007 152,000 253,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 405,000 368,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE Phase Livelihood Zones J.P/L. Region Timeline Speciﬁc Areas or Districts S.I. Pas- S.E. J.P./Shabelle S./Central J.P/L.Shabelle S.I. Pas- S.E. J.P./Shabelle S./Central Shabelle toral Past Riverine Agropast Irrigated toral Past Riverine Agropa Irrigated East: Pop affected; 50% Balcad, 33% 0% 0% 25% - M 50% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 100% - P 100% - P Jan - June 2008 Cadale and Adan Yabaal (Deyr 07-08 West: Pop affected; 100% Jowhar, Projection) M. Shabelle 50% Balcad, 66% Cadale and Adan 0% 0% 25% - M 25% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 100% - P 100% - P Yabaal July - Dec 2007 High Risk scenerio. Rational applied in 0% 50% - P 25% - M 50% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 100% - P 100% - P (Gu 07 Proj) the Gu Tech report

East: Pop affected; 100% Baraawe and Marka, 50% Afgooye, 25% K/Waarey, 0% 0% 25% - M 50% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 100% -P 100% - P Jan - June 2008 10% Sablaale and Qoryooley (Deyr 07-08 West: Pop affected; 50% Afgooye, L. Shabelle Projection) 25% -P 75% K/Waarey, 90% Sablaale and 0% 0% 25% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 75% - P 100% - P 25% M Qoryooley, 100% W/Wayne Agro-Past.

July - Dec 2007 High Risk scenerio. Rational applied in 0% 50% - P 25% - M 50% - M 25% - M 0% 0% 100% - P 100% - P 100% - P (Gu 07 Proj) the Gu Tech report

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 80 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08.

IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones

Livelihood zones Hiran Agro-Pastoral Hiran riverine: Sorghum, maize, cattle & shoats Hawd Pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats Dhus Southern inland pastoral: Camel, sheep & goats ) Central regions Agro-Pastoral: Cowpea, sheep & goats, camel, cattle ) Shabelle riverine: Maize, fruits & vegetables

Beled Weyne L

HIIRAN C Bulo Barde ) Aden

) Tayeglow Jalalaqsi Cadale

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Hiraan Region Affected UNDP 2005 Total Popula- Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 District tion Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE

Belet Weyne/Matabaan 172,049 16,000 7,000 41,000 13,000

Bulo Burto/Maxaas 111,038 10,000 7,000 18,000 9,000 appendix Jalalaqsi 46,724 3,000 2,000 5,000 2,000

SUB-TOTAL 329,811 29,000 16,000 64,000 24,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 45,000 88,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Estimated Population Hiraan Region and of Affected Livelihood Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Livelihood Zone Zones Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE (AFLC) (HE Hiran riverine 30,126 0 0 4,000 20,000

Southern Inland Past 32,782 5,000 16,000 0 0

Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 136,130 24,000 0 13,000 4,000

Hiran Agro-Past 61,660 0 0 47,000 0

SUB-TOTAL 260,698 29,000 16,000 64,000 24,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 45,000 88,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group A F L C P H A S E H E P h a s e Speciﬁc Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Region Timeline Areas or S.I. Ciid (Hawd) Hiran Hiran S.I. Ciid (Hawd) Hiran Districts Hiran Riv Pastoral Pastora Agro-Pas Riverine Pastoral Pastora Agro-Pas

Jan - June 2008 75% -P 100% - P 0% 100% - P 25% - M 0% 25% - P 0% (Deyr 07-08 25% M 50% - M Hiran Projection) July - Dec 100% - P 2007 0% 0% 50% - P 25% - M 0% 0% 0% 25% - M (Gu07 Proj)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 81 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.6 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08.

IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones Burtinle Jariiban Goldogob) Galkacyo

Cadaado MUDUG Cabudwaaq Hobyo

Dhusa Mareeb ) ) GALGADUD Harardheere Weyne Ceel Bur

HIIRAN Ceel Dheere

o Barde) Aden Yabal Jalalaqsi)

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis Emergency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 41,067 0 0 13,000 3,000 Cadaado 45,630 0 0 14,000 3,000 Ceel Buur 79,092 0 0 22,000 4,000 Ceel Dheer 73,008 0 0 7,000 1,000 Dhuusamarreeb 91,260 0 0 25,000 5,000 SUB-TOTAL 330,057 0 0 81,000 16,000 Mudug Gaalkacyo 137,667 0 0 4,000 1,000 Galdogob 40,433 0 0 0 0 Hobyo 67,249 0 0 18,000 4,000 Jariiban 39,207 0 0 0 0 Xarardheere 65,543 12,000 2,000 SUB-TOTAL 350,099 0 0 34,000 7,000 GRAND TOTAL 680,146 0 0 0 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE appendix 0 138,000

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-8 UNDP 2005 Total Affected Regions and District Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Acute Food and Humanitarian Emer- Livelihood Crisis Emergency Livelihood Crisis gency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Galgaduud Addun pastoral 133,927 0 0 45,000 8,000 Central Agro-Past 60,666 0 0 7,000 1,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 21,671 0 0 7,000 1,000 Southern Inland Past 7,625 0 0 2,000 1,000 Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 47,191 0 0 20,000 5,000 SUB-TOTAL 271,080 0 0 81,000 16,000 Mudug Addun pastoral 106,749 0 0 17,000 3,000 Central Agro-Past 31,750 0 0 10,000 2,000 Coastal Deeh: sheep 32,717 0 0 5,000 1,000 Fishing 1,729 0 0 0 0 Hawd Pastoral 82,749 2,000 1,000 Sub-Total 255,694 0 0 34,000 7,000 GRAND TOTAL 680,146 0 0 0 0 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 138,000

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE PHASE Livelihood Zones

Region Areas Speciﬁc Areas or Districts Ciid (Hawd) Addun Central agro- Southern Coast Ciid (Hawd) Addun Central Southern Coast Past. Past. past Inland Past. Deeh Past. Past. agro-past Inland Past. Deeh

Jan - June 2008 75% -P 75% -P 75% -P 75% -P 75% -P Galgadud (Deyr 07-08 25% - P 25% - P 25% - P 25% - P 25% - P 25% M 25% M 25% M 25% M 25% M Projection)

High Risk Pop: Xarardheere & Hobyo, 100% affected, Galdogob & Jariiban 0%; Jan - June 2008 Low Risk Pop: Galkayo, 15% 75% -P 75% -P Mudug (Deyr 07-08 75% -P 25% M 75% -P 25% M 25% - P 25% - P 25% - P 25% - P Pop affected. (The scenerio 25% M 25% M Projection) is High Risk. However if Low Risk, then it would be 100%-P in AFLC)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 82 Issued March 7, 2008 5.3.7 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08.

IPC, Gu ’07 IPC, Deyr ’07/08 Livelihood Zones Calula

BOSSASO JIBOUTI !. Qandala Gulf of Aden Zeylac Bossaaso

Lughaye ERIGABO !. AWDAL Ceerigaabo Las Qoray/Badhan Baki Berbera SANAG Iskushuban Borama Ceel Afweyne BORAMA Sheikh BARI !. W. GALBEED Gebiley HARGEYSA BURAO !. !. Hargeysa Qardho Burco Owdweyne Xudun Caynabo Talex Bandar Beyla TOGDHEER Indian Ocean SOOL

Laas!. Caanood Buuhoodle LAS ANOD !. GAROWEGarowe

Eyl NUGAL Burtinle ETHIOPIA

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2007 Deyr 2007-08 UNDP 2005 Total Population Acute Food and Humanitarian Emer- Acute Food and Liveli- Humanitarian Emer- Livelihood Crisis gency hood Crisis gency (AFLC) (HE) (AFLC) (HE) Bari Bandarbayla 14,376 0 0 0 0 Bossaso 164,906 0 0 0 0 Caluula 40,002 0 0 0 0 Iskushuban 45,027 0 0 0 0

Qandala 42,502 0 0 0 0

Qardho/Dan Gorayo 81,156 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 387,969 0 0 0 0 Nugaal Burtinle 34,674 0 0 0 0 Eyl 32,345 0 0 0 0 Garoowe 57,991 0 0 0 0 appendix SUB-TOTAL 125,010 0 0 0 0 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn 65,797 0 0 0 0 Ceerigaabo 114,846 0 0 0 0 Laasqoray/Badhan 89,724 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 270,367 0 0 0 0 Sool Caynabo 30,702 0 0 0 0 Laas Caanood 75,436 0 0 0 0 Taleex 25,354 0 0 0 0 Xudun 18,785 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 150,277 0 0 0 0 Togdheer Burco 288,211 0 0 0 0 Buuhoodle 38,428 0 0 0 0 Owdweyne 42,031 0 0 0 0 Sheikh 33,625 0 0 0 0 SUB-TOTAL 402,295 0 0 0 0 GRAND-TOTAL 1,335,918 0 0

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 0 0

Rationale for Phase Classiﬁcation Population by Livelihood Zone and Wealth Group

AFLC PHASE Livelihood Zones HE Phase Livelihood Zones

Region Timeline S.I. Ciid Hiran Agro- J.P. Hiran S.I. Ciid Hiran Agro- J.P. Hiran Riverine Pastoral Pastoral Pastoral Irrigated Riverine Pastoral Pastoral Pastoral Irrigated

July – Dec 2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 07 Proj)

NE & NW

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 83 Issued March 7, 2008 5.4 POST Deyr ’07/08 ESTIMATED POPULATION IN HE AND AFLC FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY TO JUNE 2008

5.4.1 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region, January to June, 2008 Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE UNDP 2005 Total Acute Food and Affected Regions 1 Humanitarian Total in AFLC or HE as % Population Livelihood Crisis Emergency (HE)2 of Region population (AFLC)2 North3 2,341,718 00 0 Central Galgaduud 330,057 80,000 15,000 29 Mudug 350,099 35,000 5,000 11 Sub-Total (Central) 680,156 115,000 20,000 20 South Bakool 310,627 90,000 5,000 31 Bay 620,562 25,000 0 4 Gedo 328,378 35,000 10,000 14 Hiraan 329,811 65,000 25,000 27 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 20,000 0 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 60,000 15,000 19 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 40,000 85,000 24 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 85,000 155,000 28 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 420,000 295,000 20 Banadir 901,183 .. . GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 535,000 315,000 11

Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 850,000 115 Estimated number of new IDPs since April 2007 705,000 95 Estimated number of old IDPs 275,0004 45 Estimated total population in crisis 1,830,000 245 appendix Footnotes 1 Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population figures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the official estimates provided by UNDP. Provisional revised population numbers for 2008 are available, but are not used because they have not been endorsed yet and are only available at the regional level of disaggregation. 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest five thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning 3 Dan Gorayo is included within Bari Region following precedent set in population data prior to UNDP/WHO 2005 4 Source: UN-OCHA updated April 2004 (376,630) and UNHCR IDP map Dec.2005 (407,000), rounded to 400,000 as an estimate. The figure of 400,000 protracted IDPs is reduced as some of these IDPs were resident in Mogadishu and are now ‘newly’ displaced and are included within the 705,000 new IDP figure. 5 Percent of total population of Somalia estimated at 7,502,654 (UNDP/WHO 2005)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 84 Issued March 7, 2008 5.4.2 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District, January to June, 2008

AssessedandContigencyPopulationinAFLCandHE UNDP2005Total AffectedRegionsandDistrict AcuteFoodand Humanitarian TotalinAFLCorHEas% Population LivelihoodCrisis(AFLC) Emergency(HE) ofRegionpopulation

Bakool CeelBarde 29,179 1,000 1,000 7 RabDhuure 37,652 12,000 4,000 42 Tayeeglow 81,053 27,000 0 33 Waajid 69,694 25,000 2,000 39 Xudur 93,049 27,000 0 29 SubTotal 310,627 92,000 7,000 32 Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 320,463 24,000 0 7 BuurHakaba 125,616 0 0 0 Diinsoor 75,769 0 0 0 QansaxDheere 98,714 0 0 0 SubTotal 620,562 24,000 0 4 Gedo Baardheere 106,172 13,000 0 12 BeletXaawo 55,989 8,000 2,000 18 CeelWaaq 19,996 0 0 0 Doolow 26,495 4,000 1,000 19 Garbahaarey/BuurDhuubo 57,023 7,000 1,000 14 Luuq 62,703 4,000 4,000 13 SubTotal 328,378 36,000 8,000 13 Hiraan BeletWeyne/Matabaan 172,049 41,000 13,000 31 BuloBurto/Maxaas 111,038 18,000 9,000 24 Jalalaqsi 46,724 5,000 2,000 15 SubTotal 329,811 64,000 24,000 27 JubaDhexe(Middle) Bu'aale 59,489 5,000 0 8 Jilib 113,415 14,000 0 12 Saakow/Salagle 65,973 3,000 0 5 SubTotal 238,877 22,000 0 9 JubaHoose(Lower) appendix Afmadow/Xagar 51,334 9,000 0 18 Badhaadhe 38,640 7,000 0 18 Jamaame 129,149 31,000 11,000 33 Kismaayo 166,667 15,000 2,000 10 SubTotal 385,790 62,000 13,000 19 ShabelleDhexe(Middle) AdanYabaal 62,917 4,000 6,000 16 Balcad/Warsheikh 136,007 12,000 24,000 26 Cadale 46,720 2,000 3,000 11 Jowhar/Mahaday 269,257 20,000 54,000 27 SubTotal 514,901 38,000 87,000 24 ShabelleHoose(Lower) Afgooye/AwDheegle 211,712 20,000 39,000 28 Baraawe 57,652 5,000 8,000 23 Kurtunwaarey 55,445 5,000 11,000 29 Marka 192,939 15,000 35,000 26 Qoryooley 134,205 13,000 28,000 31 Sablaale 43,055 4,000 8,000 28 WanlaWeyn 155,643 24,000 28,000 33 SubTotal 850,651 86,000 157,000 29 Galgaduud Cabudwaaq 41,067 13,000 3,000 39 Cadaado 45,630 14,000 3,000 37 CeelBuur 79,092 22,000 4,000 33 CeelDheer 73,008 7,000 1,000 11 Dhuusamarreeb 91,260 25,000 5,000 33 SubTotal 330,057 81,000 16,000 29 Mudug Gaalkacyo 137,667 4,000 1,000 4 Galdogob 40,433 0 0 0 Hobyo 67,249 18,000 4,000 33 Jariiban 39,207 0 0 0 Xarardheere 65,543 12,000 2,000 21 SubTotal 350,099 34,000 7,000 12 GRANDTOTAL 4,259,753 539,000 319,000 20

Footnotes 1 Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population ﬁgures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁcial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest one thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 85 Issued March 7, 2008 5.4.3 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group, January to June, 2008 AssessedandContigencyPopulationinAFLCandHE EstimatedPopulationof AffectedRegionsandLivelihoodZone AcuteFoodand Humanitarian TotalinAFLCorHEas% AffectedLivelihoodZones LivelihoodCrisis(AFLC) Emergency(HE) ofZonepopulation Bakool BayBakoolBarderaAgroPast 16,098 9,000 1,000 62 SouthernAgroPast 167,643 83,000 6,000 53 SouthernInlandPast 65,448 0 0 0 SubTotal 249,189 92,000 7,000 40 Bay BayBakoolBarderaAgroPast 274,649 0 0 0 SouthEastPastoral 26,923 0 0 0 SouthernAgroPast 156,232 24,000 0 15 SouthernInlandPast 35,945 0 0 0 SubTotal 493,749 24,000 0 5 Gedo BayBakoolBarderaAgroPast 26,607 9,000 0 34 DawaPastoral 81,654 16,000 0 20 JubaPumpIrrigatedRiv 31,236 7,000 4,000 35 SouthernAgroPast 31,751 4,000 4,000 25 SouthernInlandPast 75,828 0 0 0 SubTotal 247,076 36,000 8,000 18 Hiraan Hiranriverine 32,782 4,000 20,000 73 SouthernInlandPast 61,660 0 0 0 Ciid(Hawd)Pastoral 30,126 13,000 4,000 56 HiranAgroPast 136,130 47,000 0 35 SubTotal 260,698 64,000 24,000 34 JubaDhexe(Middle) Coastalpastoral:goats&cattle 10,984 0 0 0 JubaPumpIrrigatedRiv 17,297 3,000 0 17 LowerJubaAgroPast 8,780 0 0 0 SouthEastPastoral 18,232 4,000 0 22 SouthernAgroPast 46,816 0 0 0 SouthernInlandPast 22,725 0 0 0 SouthernJubaRiv 59,304 15,000 0 25 SubTotal 184,138 22,000 0 12 JubaHoose(Lower) Coastalpastoral:goats&cattle 33,354 0 0 0 LowerJubaAgroPast 70,183 21,000 0 30 SouthEastPastoral 38,810 9,000 0 23 SouthernAgroPast 11,637 4,000 0 34 SouthernInlandPast 50,119 0 0 0 SouthernJubaRiv 57,005 28,000 13,000 72 SubTotal 261,108 62,000 13,000 29 ShabelleDhexe(Middle) CentralAgroPast 36,695 6,000 9,000 41 CoastalDeeh:sheep 93,722 0 0 0 Shabelleriverine 53,657 7,000 22,000 54 appendix SouthernAgroPast 160,948 25,000 56,000 50 SouthernInlandPast 74,048 0 0 0 SubTotal 419,070 38,000 87,000 30 ShabelleHoose(Lower) Coastalpastoral:goats&cattle 2,534 0 0 0 L.Shab.r/fed&f/irr 372,273 47,000 83,000 35 Shabelleriverine 115,552 15,000 46,000 53 SouthEastPastoral 6,884 0 0 0 SouthernAgroPast 106,902 24,000 28,000 49 SouthernInlandPast 73,793 0 0 0 SubTotal 677,937 86,000 157,000 36 Galgaduud Addunpastoral 133,927 45,000 8,000 40 CentralAgroPast 60,666 7,000 1,000 13 CoastalDeeh:sheep 21,671 7,000 1,000 37 SouthernInlandPast 7,625 2,000 1,000 39 Ciid(Hawd)Pastoral 47,191 20,000 5,000 53 SubTotal 271,080 81,000 16,000 36 Mudug Addunpastoral:mixedshoats,camel 106,749 17,000 3,000 19 CentralAgroPast 31,750 10,000 2,000 38 CoastalDeeh:sheep 32,717 5,000 1,000 18 Fishing 1,729 0 0 0 HawdPastoral 82,749 2,000 1,000 4 SubTotal 255,694 34,000 7,000 16 GRANDTOTAL 3,319,739 539,000 319,000 26 South Region Livelihood Population Estimate Summary, July to December, 2007 EstimatedPopulationof AssessedandContigencyPopulationinAFLCandHE AffectedLivelihoodSystem AffectedLivelihood AcuteFoodand Humanitarian TotalinAFLCorHEas% System LivelihoodCrisis(AFLC) Emergency(HE) ofZonepopulation Agropastoral 1,343,488 275,000 107,000 28 Pastoral 1,235,417 138,000 25,000 13 Riverine 739,105 126,000 187,000 42 Fishing 1,729 0 0 0 TOTAL 3,319,739 539,000 319,000 26

1 Source: Rural Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population ﬁgures in affected regions. FSAU does not round these population estimates as they are the ofﬁcial estimates provided by UNDP 2 Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest one thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are inclusive of population in High Risk of AFLC or HE for purposes of planning

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 86 Issued March 7, 2008 l avg) (current of 5 year price as % Vegetable oi Vegetable avg) 223%223% 147% 147% 221% 160% 271% 225% 135%182% 211% 213% 151%151% 174% 130% 174% 130% 180% 180% 175% 208% 205% 176% Cereal (current Primary of 5 year price as % % without access to services health settlements % not in (very poor) 0 - 15,000SoSh income less <= IDPS with daily % of employed % not employed not remittances receiving % of IDPs not from town support receiving % of IDPs relatives in appendix access % without to latrines 38% 77% 74% 96% 79% 55% 26% 17% Water Clean % without Access to a Status ery Critic Nutrition V Phase Rural IPC % of Pop. Urban ulations p % of Pop. Total Total laced Po p Dis 8, 2008 as of Jan. 43 17,000 1,800 30.4 125.0 6.8 31.7 4 Critical 4 46% Critical 100% 0% 100% 75% 50% 50% 80% 20% 97% 25% 20% 70% 95% 0% 100% Phase IDP IPC IDP District XudunCeerigaabo *BadhanTaleexGaroowe * 2 2 760 8,140 2 43.3 2 0.7 2 No data 249.9 No data No data 2.4 No data 8,470 No data 2 No data 2 33.4 2 193.8 2 No data Alert Alert 100% 2 100% Alert No data 100% No data No data 90% No data 70% 100% 40% No data No data 63% No data 93% No data 50% 95% 9% No data No data 62% 99% No data 90% 87% 100% 100% 3% 95% 100% 80% No data 100% 100% 47% 100% 185% 100% 100% 154% 0% 185% 154% Dhuusamarreeb * 4 54,000 59.2 321.1 3 Critical 39% 41% 80% 81% 95% 27% 96% 0% Belet Weyne *Belet Weyne 4 33,000 22.9 106.9 4 Critical 94% 62% 62% 92% 90% 40% 84% 50% Jowhar*/Mahaday 2 8,500 3.2 18.1 4 Critical 28% 74% 87% No data 73% 82% 20% 20% Buur HakabaBelet Xaawo Doolow 3 9,300 7.4 37.0 2 Critical 100% 100% 85% 95% 90% 55% 100% 0% Baydhaba * 4 26,000 11.4 44.0 2 Afgooye 4 200,000 148.1 925.8 4 Critical 14% 74% 92% 90% 78% 55% 1% 80% Afmadow 3 8,000 15.6 112.3 3 Serious 40% 24% 78% 44% 92% 60% 67% 60% 2007/08 IDP ANALYSIS 2007/08 IDP Region Deyr (Lower) Nugal Galgadud Generally Food Insecure (GFI - Phase 2) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC - Phase 3) Humanitarian Emergency (HE - Phase 4) Hiran Shabelle Shabelle Hoose Bay Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gedo Sanaag and Sool Dhexe(Middle) 5.5

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 87 Issued March 7, 2008 5.6 LIVESTOCK HERD DYNAMICS BY REGION AND LIVELIHOOD ZONE 5.6.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region

Livelihood Zone

Gedo: Southern Inland Pastoral Gedo: Dawa Pastoral

Livestock Herd Growth Analysis Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats

Baseline Herd Size of the Poor Wealth Group1 25 8 40 8 13 70

Percent Change April ‘05 - March ‘062 -5% -40% -30% -15% -60% -50%

Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘05 - March ‘06 -1 -3 -12 -1 -8 -35 Herd Size at the start of April ‘06 24 5 28 7 5 35 Percent Change During April ‘06-March ‘073 -7% -10% -1% -7% -10% -1% Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘06 - March ‘07 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 Herd Size at the start of April ‘07 22 4 28 6 5 35 Number at the start of April ‘07 as % of Baseline 88 54 69 79 36 50 Actual Calving and Kidding of Gu ‘074 10100012 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘07 23 4 38 7 5 47 Number at the end of Gu ‘07 as % of Baseline 92 55 94 82 37 67 Calving/Kidding in Hagaa ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/085 7210 21.912 Livestock Off-Take up to December ‘07 -3 -1 -11 -1 -1 -14 Herd Size by end December ‘07 27 5 37 8645 Number at the end of Dec. ‘07 as % of Baseline 107 68 91 96 45 65 Number at the end of December ‘07 as April ‘07 121 126 132 121 126 131 Projection of the next 6 months - Jan. to June ‘08 Number at the start of January ‘08 27 5 37 8 6 45 Expected Calving /Kidding in jilaal’ and Gu’08 2 0 14 1 0.4 13 Livestock off-take between Jan. to June ‘08 0 0 5 0 0 -5 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘08 29 5 46 9 6 53 Number at the end of June ‘08 as % of baseline 114.6 68.1 114.0 108.3 48.4 76.4

1 FSAU Livelihood Baseline Data and Proﬁles. 2 FSAU 2006 Post-Gu Technical Report, Table 8: Trends in Livestock Holdings, and Post Gu 2006 Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. 3 FSAU 2007 Post-Gu Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. Change reported includes off-take or losses (sales, death, losses, gifts) and gained (birth, gifts, purchases). 4 FSAU 2007 Post -Gu Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. Change reported includes off-take or losses (sales, death, losses, gifts) and gained (birth, gifts, purchases). 5 Projected estimate based on reported conception in Gu ‘07 to Deyr ‘07/08 (see Livestock Sector Post Gu ‘07 and Post Deyr ’07/08 Technical Series Report). Calculated Using the Standard 20-20-50.

5.6.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Bay and Bakool Region

appendix Livelihood Zone Central: Addun Bay: Bay-Bakool Bakool: Southern Bakool: Southern Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Inland Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Livestock Herd Growth Analysis Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Baseline Herd Size of the Poor Wealth Group1 32302 313257402 3 13 Percent Change April ‘05 - March ‘062 8% -3% -3% 5% -7% -7% 5% -17% -7% 5% -7% -7% Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘05 - March ‘06 0 0 -1 00-11-1-300 -1 Herd Size at the start of April ‘06 3 2 29 231226 6 37 23 12 Percent Change During April ‘06-March ‘073 9% 8% 19% -8% -20% -7% -8% -20% -7% -8% -20% -7% Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘06 - March ‘07 0 0 6 0-1-1-2 -1 -3 0-1-1 Herd Size at the start of April ‘07 4 2 35 2 2 11 24 5 35 1.93 2 11 Number at the start of April ‘07 as % of Baseline 118 105 115 97 74 86 97 66 86 97 74 86 Actual Calving and Kidding of Gu ‘074 005 003 419 00 3 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘07 4 2 40 231528 6 44 23 14 Number at the end of Gu ‘07 as % of Baseline 125 111 133 112 87 112 112 75 108 112 84 108 Calving/Kidding in Hagaa ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/085 10.49 014711311 4 Livestock Off-Take up to December ‘07 -1 -1 -15 0-1-5 -8 -1 -14 -1 -1 -4 Herd Size by end December ‘07 32342 314275432 2 14 Number at the end of Dec. ‘07 as % of Baseline 104 80 112 116 87 107 110 73 108 110 82 108 Number at the end of December ‘07 as April ‘07 88 76 97 120 117 123 113 110 125 113 110 125 Projection of the next 6 months - Jan. to June ‘08 Number at the start of January ‘08 3 2 34 2 3 14 27 5 43 2 2 14 Expected Calving /Kidding in jilaal’ and Gu’08 0 0 7 1 1 5 1 0 10 1 1 5 Livestock off-take between Jan. to June ‘08 -1 -1 -20 0 1 2 -1 -1 5 0 0 -1 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘08 2 1 21 3 5 21 27 4 58 3 3 18 Number at the end of June ‘08 as % of baseline 70.5 29.6 68.3 165.9 153.5 160.5 109.6 59.1 145.4 159.6 115.5 138.7

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 88 Issued March 7, 2008 5.6.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Hiran and Juba Region

Livelihood Zone

Hiran: Hawd Pastoral Juba: Southeast Pastoral Juba: Southern Inland Pastoral

Livestock Herd Growth Analysis Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats

Baseline Herd Size of the Poor Wealth Group1 8 55 1815 25 8 40 Percent Change April ‘05 - March ‘062 0% 0% -47% -25% -5% -47% -25%

Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘05 - March ‘06 0 0 0 0 -8 -4 -1 -4 -10 Herd Size at the start of April ‘06 8 0 55 0 10 11 24 4 30

Percent Change During April ‘06-March ‘073 2% 9% -7% -5% -6% -14% -14%

Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘06 - March ‘07 0 0 5 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 Herd Size at the start of April ‘07 80600911224 26 Number at the start of April ‘07 as % of Baseline 102 109 49 71 89 46 65 Actual Calving and Kidding of Gu ‘074 1 14 1 2 3 1 5 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘07 9 0 74 0 10 13 25 4 30 Number at the end of Gu ‘07 as % of Baseline 110 135 58 84 102 53 76 Calving/Kidding in Hagaa ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/085 2 20 24 61.09 Livestock Off-Take up to December ‘07 -2 -24 -2 -3 -6 -1 -8 Herd Size by end December ‘07 9 0700 11 13 25 4 32 Number at the end of Dec. ‘07 as % of Baseline 109 128 60 87 98 56 80 Number at the end of December ‘07 as April ‘07 107 117 0 123 123 110 123 124 Projection of the next 6 months - Jan. to June ‘08 Number at the start of January ‘08 9 70 11 13 25 4 32 Expected Calving /Kidding in jilaal’ and Gu’08 1 0 10 0 3 7 2 1 14 Livestock off-take between Jan. to June ‘08 -1 -30 0 -4 0 1 -5

Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘08 905001416276 41

Number at the end of June ‘08 as % of baseline 108.8 0 91.5 0.0 77.1 107.4 106.1 81.2 102.3

1 FSAU Livelihood Baseline Data and Proﬁles. 2 FSAU 2006 Post-Gu Technical Report, Table 8: Trends in Livestock Holdings, and Post Gu 2006 Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. appendix 3 FSAU 2007 Post-Gu Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. Change reported includes off-take or losses (sales, death, losses, gifts) and gained (birth, gifts, purchases). 4 FSAU 2007 Post -Gu Pastoral Herd Dynamics Survey. Change reported includes off-take or losses (sales, death, losses, gifts) and gained (birth, gifts, purchases). 5 Projected estimate based on reported conception in Gu ‘07 to Deyr ‘07/08 (see Livestock Sector Post Gu ‘07 and Post Deyr ’07/08 Technical Series Report). Calculated Using the Standard 20-20-50.

5.6.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region

Livelihood Zone NW: Guban-Golis NW: Hawd NE: Sool Plateau NE: Hawd NE: Nugal Valley

Livestock Herd Growth Analysis Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats Camel Cattle Goats

Baseline Herd Size of the Poor Wealth Group1 2 40 4 40 0 50 8 55 2 30 Percent Change April ‘05 - March ‘062 8% 8% 8% 8% 35% 15% 35% 15% 35% 15% Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘05 - March ‘06 0 0 30 0 30 83 81 5 Herd Size at the start of April ‘06 2 0 43 4 0 43 0 0 58 11 0 63 3 0 35 Percent Change During April ‘06-March ‘073 27% 22% 27% 22% 18% 32% 5% 41% 16% 39% Number of Animals Gained/Lost April ‘06 - March ‘07 1 0 10 1 0 10 0 0 18 1 0 26 0 0 13 Herd Size at the start of April ‘07 3 0 53 5 0 53 0 0 76 11 0 89 3 0 48 Number at the start of April ‘07 as % of Baseline 137 132 137 132 5 117 142 162 52 72 Actual Calving and Kidding of Gu ‘074 0 18 1 18 0 20 1 16 0 14 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘07 3 0 71 6 0 71 0 0 96 12 0 105 3 0 62 Number at the end of Gu ‘07 as % of Baseline 159 177 159 177 6 148 152 192 56 92 Calving/Kidding in Hagaa ‘07 and Deyr ‘07/085 1 14 2 14 0 22 3 027 1 014

Livestock Off-Take up to December ‘07 0 -18 -1 -18 0 0-23 -2 -34 0 -18 Herd Size by end December ‘07 4 067 7 067 1 95 13 098 4 058 Number at the end of Dec. ‘07 as % of Baseline 187 168 187 168 7 147 164 179 66 86 Number at the end of December ‘07 as April ‘07 137 127 137 127 129 126 116 110 126 120 Projection of the next 6 months - Jan. to June ‘08 Number at the start of January ‘08 4 67 7 67 1 95 13 98 4 58 Expected Calving /Kidding in jilaal’ and Gu’08 0 0 25 0 0 25 0 0 35 0 0 40 0 0 25 Livestock off-take between Jan. to June ‘08 0 -46 0 -8 1 -30 0 -30 0 -8 Herd Size at the end of Gu ‘08 4 0 46 7 0 84 2 0 100 13 0 108 4 0 75 Number at the end of June ‘08 as % of baseline 187.4 0 115.5 187.4 0 210.5 19.2 0 154.5 164 0 197 197.1 0 248.5

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 89 Issued March 7, 2008 5.7 LIST OF PARTNERS THAT PARTICIPATED IN THE FSAU POST Deyr ’07/08 ASSESSMENT

FSAU would like to thank all the agencies that participated and made this assessment possible. Our regional partners assisted with data collection and logistical support.

1 Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) 2 Danish Refugee Council (DRC) 3 Save The Children Fund UK (SCF-UK) 4 CARE International 5 Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) - Puntland 6 World Food Programme (WFP) 7 Social-Life & Agriculture Development Organization - South (SADO) 8 VETAID 9 OXFAM 10 Horn Relief (Sanag) 11 UNOCHA 12 MURDO 13 JDO 14 SAWA 15 PSAWEN 16 HIRDA 17 Muslim AID 18 ERDO 19 National Environmental Research and Disaster Preparedness (NERAD) - Somaliland 20 Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) - Somaliland 21 Ministry of Planning and Rural Development (MPRD) - Somaliland 22 Ministry of Health and Labour (MoHL) - Somaliland 23 Ministry of Livestock (MoL) Somaliland 24 Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) Somaliland 25 Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MoLG & RD)Puntland, 26 Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) Puntland, 27 Ministry of Planning & International co-operation (MOPIC) - Puntland

appendix 28 Ministry of Livestock Environment and Agriculture (MoLEA) - Puntland 29 Ministry of Health (MOH) - Puntland 30 African Youth Development Association (AYODA) 31 Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization (HAVAYOCO) 32 Jubalandise Charity Centre (JCC) 33 Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS) 34 Africa Rescue Committee (AFREC) 35 Lower Juba Local Authority 36 Middle Shebelle Local Authority 37 Lower Shebelle Local Authority 38 Gedo Local Authority 39 Luuq Local Authority 40 South West Local Authority 41 Hiran & Central Local Authority 42 Buale Local Authority

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 90 Issued March 7, 2008 5.8 POST DEYR ’07/08 ASSESSMENT PROCESS, ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND TIMELINE

5.8.1 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment Overall Timeline

Activity Date Description/Location

Finalisation of survey tools, team composi- FSAU Partner Planning Meeting November 2 tion and travel and logistical arrangements. Nairobi

NW Gu/ Karan Post Harvest Assessment Regional Planning meetings in Hargeisa and November 5 - 20 NW/NE Post Deyr ë07/08 Assessment Garowe, followed by ﬁeldwork

Regional Planning meetings in Buale, Luuq, Regional Planning Workshops - Central/ December 15 - 16 Wajid, Merka, Jowhar, Beletweyne South

Fieldwork December 17 - 31 Throughout all regions with partners

Regional Analysis Meetings January 1 - 4 Hargeisa, Garowe, Wajid, Luuq All Team (FSAU Nairobi and FAs, and Part- All Team Analysis Workshop January 8 - 12 ners) in Hargeisa Finalization of Key Findings January 15 - 19 Hargeisa Nutrition - January 21 Vetting of results with Partners Nairobi IPC and Food Security - Jan. 28 Presentation to Special SSS FSRD Meeting, Release of Results January 31 Nairobi and posted on website and Press Release issued appendix February 7 FSAU Special Brief, Post Deyr 2007/08 Analysis Regional Presentations in Gedo (Feb 7) Hargeisa (Feb 11), Garowe (Feb 11), Baidoa February 7 - 21 (Feb 10), Buale (Feb 17), Gedo (Feb 7), Be- letweyne ( Feb 21), FSAU website, email distribution, hardcopy Release of Technical Series Report March 7 mailing

5.8.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr ’07/08 Results

Region Date Hargeisa February 17, 2008 Garowe, Nugal Region February 11, 2008 Buale, Middle Juba Region February 17, 2008 Baidoa, Bay Region February 10, 2008 Dolo, Gedo Region February 7, 2008 Belet Weyne, Hiran Region February 21, 2008

The tools used during the Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment and Analysis process are listed below.

5.9 Assessment Instruments and Tools 5.9.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 5.9.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 5.9.3 FSAU IDP Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 5.9.4 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment: Conﬂict Monitoring Form 5.9.5 FSAU Post Deyr ’07 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 5.9.6 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 91 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9 Assessment Instruments and Tools 5.9.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT (FSAU)/FEWSNET FOOD SECURITY, LIVELIHOODS AND NUTRITION ASSESSMENT PASTORAL

Date: ______Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______

District: ______Village/Settlement______Livelihood zone: ______

GPS Coordinates North: ______East: ______

Key informant/focus group/household interview: (circle one) Data entry number ______

1.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: RAINFALL Amount Duration (from first to last rain) Frequency Distribution

Note: Classify each as follows: 1 very poor, 2 poor, 3 average, 4 good, 5 very good

2.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: KEY EVENTS Note the key events for the current season. Key events may include, for example, reference to floods, drought, freezing rains, conflict, and extreme currency fluctuation. Note whether these are positive or negative in their impact

3.0 SEASONAL PERFORMANCE: CONCEPTIONS, BIRTHS AND DEATHS Livestock Type Camels Cattle Shoats Seasonal Concept- Births Deaths Concept- Births Deaths Concept- Births Deaths Year (1-5*) performance ions ions ions 2007/08 Deyr 2007 Hagaa 2007 Gu 2007 Jilaal 2006/07 Deyr * Classify each season as follows: Use the following categories to indicate levels of conceptions, births 5 = a very good season for livestock production (e.g. due to good rains, and deaths: high, medium, low, none little disease, etc) 4 = a good season or above average season for livestock production Remember that births occur: 3 = an average season in terms of livestock production 12 months after conception in camels 2 = a poor season for livestock production 9 months after conception in cattle appendix 1 = a very poor season for livestock production (e.g. due to drought, 5 months after conception in small stock livestock disease, etc.)

4.0 LIVESTOCK HERD DYNAMICS Livestock Type April ‘07 – Dec ‘07 Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned start GU 2007 20 20 50

No. adult females

No. born GU 2007

No. born Hagaa 2007

No. born Deyr 07/08

No. sold during April ‘07-Dec ‘07 No. slaughtered during April ‘07-Dec

‘07 No. died during April ‘07-Dec ‘07

No. lost during April ‘07-Dec ‘07 No. given away during April ‘07-Dec

‘07 No. bought during April ‘07-Dec ‘07

No. at the end of Dec ‘07

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 92 Issued March 7, 2008

October 2007 – now Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned at the end Dec

‘07(Reported) No. born Deyr 2007/08

No. lactating now (reported)

Milk yield Deyr 2007/08 (l/day)

Cross-checks: Camels Cattle Shoats

No. at end of Dec’07 (calculated) = (no. owned start Gu ‘07) + (births Gu ‘07 + births Hagaa ‘07 + Births Deyr 07/08 + no. bought) – (sales + slaughtered + died + lost + given between April– December ‘07)

No. lactating now (calculated) Gu ’07 + Hagaa 07 +Deyr = births in Gu ‘07 + Deyr ‘07/08 Deyr ‘07/08 07/08

Results Summary: No. lactating per 100 animals

Milk yield Deyr 2007/08 (l/day) Bear in mind the following figures for East African pastoral herds in a year of no herd growth. In most years sold + slaughtered should be less than this to allow for some increase in herd size.

Typical figures for births, deaths, sale and slaughter Camels Cattle Shoats No. owned at start of year (total) 20 20 50 No. adults females: 11 8 28 appendix No. born during year 4.5 5.5 33 No. sold + slaughtered during year 3 4 21 No. died during year 1.5 1.5 12 No. bought during year 0 0 0 No. at end of year 20 20 50 % sold + slaughtered Notes: [1] No. died includes deaths of newborn animals. Deaths in the 1st year of life are about 65% of total deaths for cattle. Deaths in the 1st year of life are about 85% of total deaths for shoats. [2] Estimates of sold + slaughtered are based on zero herd growth.

5.0 LIVESTOCK-MIGRATION 5.1 Are livestock movements in this area ‘normal’ for this season? [ ] YES [ ] NO (Note: ‘normal’ in this sense is not resulting from unusual shortage of water and/or pasture or from insecurity) 5.2 Do you expect there to be abnormal livestock migration before [ ] YES [ ] NO the start of the next rainy season? 5.3 What are the reasons for any abnormal migration? Rank [ ] WATER them 1-4 in order of importance with ‘1’ being the most important? [ ] PASTURE [ ] INSECURITY [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) 5.4 If there has already been ABNORMAL migration, from where to 1. where (list main 4 routes and rank 1-4 in order of importance, with 2. ‘1’ being the most important)? 3. 4.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 93 Issued March 7, 2008 6.0 DEBT 6.1 What is the average level of accumulated household debt US$ [ ] for poor households in the current season? 6.2 Has this level of debt increased, remained the same, or [ ] Increased decreased from this season last year? [ ] Same [ ] Decreased 6.3 What are the two most important types of household debt for a. Main Source [ ] poor households this season? b. Secondary Source [ ] 1. Food (staple food purchase); 2. Food (non-staple food purchase); 3. Transport; 4. Human health services; 5. Livestock health services; 6. Water (human); 7. Water (livestock); 8. Other (specify______)

7.0 EFFECTS ON LIVELIHOOD ASSETS - SOCIAL CAPITAL 7.1 Are pastoralists receiving distress social support from [ ] YES [ ] NO relatives and friends? 7.2 If YES, currently, what are the main types of distress social a. Amah [ ] support? Rank 1- 4 (with 1 being the most important and 4 being b. Remittances [ ] the least important) c. Kaalmo [ ] d. Other (specify) [ ]

8.0 OTHER MAJOR SOURCES OF CASH INCOME List in the table below other major sources of cash income for pastoralists in this area Is access to these income sources different this season compared to usual?

Source of cash income Relevant in this Change in access this season compared to usual for this time of year area? Remittances Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Wood/charcoal Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Gums/resins Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Other Yes [ ] No [ ] Decreased [ ] no change [ ] increased [ ] Give reasons for any change in access, e.g. insecurity, changes in market conditions (supply and demand, price, trading patterns, local food insecurity leading to increased competition for resources, etc.)

9.0 ISSUES OF CONCERN Note major issues of concern that have not been covered in the questions above

appendix

What is the quality of the interview? (circle one) Signed: Interviewer a. Overall reliable b. Generally reliable with areas of concern c. Unreliable Signed: Team Leader

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 94 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey

THE FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT FOR SOMALIA (FSAU)

2007/08 Deyr SEASON CROP PRODUCTION SURVEY Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______Date of interview: ______District: ______Supervisor’s name: ______Village: ______Date checked: ______Name of the farmer:______Household size (in numbers): ______In collaboration with The Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS/USAID)

1.1 What was the crop condition this Deyr season? {Specify other crops}

CROP Crop Poor Normal Good Other Failure Crop Crop Crop Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

2. CROP PRODUCTION appendix {For crops not grown, leave rows blank}

2.1 For each field you planted this Deyr season, indicate the size of

UNIT OF MEASUREMENT: ______

FIELD FIELD FIELD OTHER TOTAL CROP No.1 No.2 No.3 FIELD AREA Maize Irrigated Rainfed Sorghum Irrigated Rainfed Beans Irrigated Rainfed Sesame Irrigated Rainfed Other Irrigated Rainfed 2.2 For each crop grown, indicate the amount harvested this Deyr season? UNIT OF MEASUREMENT: ______

CROP HARVEST Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 95 Issued March 7, 2008 2.3 How does this season’s production compare with a normal Deyr season? {Present farmer with 20 seeds or stone. Ask him/her to divide the pile into two – one indicating the size of a normal Deyr harvest and one for this year’s harvest. Count the number of seeds/stones and record below. Repeat for each crop grown.}

CROP Normal Deyr This Deyr Maize Sorghum Beans Sesame Other

2.4 What were the major production constraints this Deyr season and rank them in order of importance (1 being the most important)

Seed availability Tractor availability Pests and diseases Fuel costs Labour availability Other (specify)

3. LIVESTOCK

3.1 How were pasture conditions this Deyr season?

1. Bad 2. Normal 3. Good

3.2 Have there been any outbreaks of livestock diseases in the last one month? 1. Yes 2. No (skip 3.3)

3.3 Were there any livestock deaths?

1. Yes 2. No (Skip Q3. 4) appendix 3.4 How many livestock died as a result of abnormal disease out-breaks (numbers/types)? ______

3.5 Are livestock drugs available at the nearest local market?

1. Yes 2. No

4. COPING MECHANISMS

4.1 How much food will you have in stock after this harvest? ______(Specify units)

4.2 How long do you expect this food to last? ______(Specify month/weeks)

4.3 If your food stock will not last until the Gu 2007 harvest, how Will you cope with the shortfall?

1.Purchase food 2.Stop non-food uses 3.Sell livestock 4.Non-food activities 5. Other (specify)

Quality of the interview (circle one): A. overall reliable; B. generally reliable with areas of concern; C. unreliable

Comments on the interview:______

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 96 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.3 FSAU IDP Rapid Assessment Questionnaire

THE FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT FOR SOMALIA (FSAU)

IDP RAPID ASSESSMENT TOOL Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______Date of interview: ______District: ______Supervisor’s name: ______Village: ______Date checked: ______Name of the farmer:______Household size (in numbers): ______In collaboration with The Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS/USAID)

Instructions 1. All questions refer only to RECENT IDPs i.e., displaced from Mogadishu. Not old IDPs 2. Collect from 3 villages per district each from two groups a. Host community representatives b. IDP Population 3. Complete one questionnaire for each group (Host and IDP) and write answers on this form (to be submitted to data Systems Team), so there will be a total of 6 questionnaires filled per district 4. Write answers neatly in English please

Procedures: 1. Introduce team and explain objectives of the assessment. 2. Ask the key informants to give you an overview of the situation in the community. 3. Collect 3-5 questionnaires (both part 1 and 2) per IDP point/town/village/settlement from the host community

4. Collect 3 – 5 questionnaires from the actual IDP population appendix

PART 1: KEY INFORMANT(s) INTERVIEW

A. GENERAL INFORMATION - DISPLACEMENT 1. Key informant belongs to which community Host community……….. or Recent IDP ………….. 2. Number of settlements and number of households in this location? ______What is the average household size? ______3. When did the majority of IDPs arrive in this town? Please indicate if they arrived in different periods ____January ____April ____July ____October ____February ____May ____August ____November ____March ____June ____September ____December 4. Where are the IDPs from? List the original places in order of priority ____Mogadishu or ____Elsewhere ( If elsewhere state District ______) 5. Are IDPs in this location considering moving to another location? ____Yes ______(state location) ____No 6 . What are the reasons for displacement? Please rank from 1 to 3 with 1 being most important. ____Insecurity ____Economic ____Unemployment ____Clan conflict ____Drought ____ Lack of Basic Needs (food, shelter, etc.) ____ Fighting/Bombing ____Flood ____Other ______7. Are the displacements mostly complete households or partial? ____Complete ____Partial 8. Have any IDPs returned home? If yes, indicate the percent of households that have returned. ____ Yes ____% households returned ____ No ____ % Households who frequently commute between this location and Mogadishu When did the IDPs return? ____July – August 2007 ____September – October 2007 ____November – December 2007 Are there households who frequently commute between this location and Mogadishu? ____Yes ____No _____% of households commute ______frequency of commute (number of times per month)

9. Are the remaining IDPs planning to return back to Mogadishu?

______Yes ______No ______Do not know

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 97 Issued March 7, 2008 10. What is the impact of the IDPs on the community in terms of insecurity, human harassment and abuse in their current location?

Worse Same Better Insecurity in local communities Harassment at road blocks Looting High Tension 11. What is the impact of IDPs on market prices, rental properties and employment opportunities?

Higher Same Lower Employment Food Prices Rent Transport Costs Other ______12. What are the benefits for the host communities from IDPs? Explain ____Landlords benefit from rent increases ____Expansion of the township ____Sellers benefit from food price increases ____Increased Trade ____ Availability of cheap labour ____Other______

13. What were the main occupations of the IDPs when in Mogadishu? (List 3 main occupations) ____Trader ____Porter ____Tailor ____Casual Labourer ____Vegetable/Meat Seller ____Blacksmith ____Skilled Labourer ____Shoemaker ____Other______

14. Indicate the wealth breakdown of the IPDs based on their household daily earned income in Mogadishu and assets? Provide % of households per the following income groups using proportional piling methods

______% 0 – 15,000 SoSh (very poor) this represents casual labourers, such as porters ______% of 15,000-30,000 SoSh (poor) this represent petty traders (kioskos, wheelbarrow traders, etc) ______% of 30,000-70,000 SoSh (middle) represent skilled labour (carpenters, haircutters, etc), part of professional such as teachers, etc) ______% of 70,000 SoSh and Over (better off) represents traders, other professionals

appendix 100%

Type of occupation

______% Casual labourer ______% Petty traders (such as shopkeepers, wheelbarrow traders, etc) ______% Skilled (carpenters, shoe-makers, etc) ______% Professional (teachers, doctors, etc) ______% other (specify)______100%

PART 2: FOCUS GROUP INTERVIEW

B. LIVELIHOOD ASSETS AND CAPITALS – the 5 capitals Human capital 1. What proportion of IDP children have access to schooling? ____All (100%) _____Most (75%) _____Half (50%)____Few (25%) _____ None (0%)

1. Do the IDPs have access to health facilities? ____Yes ____No

Who is running these facilities? ____International NGO (INGO) ____Local NGO (LNGO) ____Local Community

How do they pay for the health facilities? Explain

____Free healthcare available ____Cost sharing between INGO, LNGO and local community

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 98 Issued March 7, 2008 2. Were there human losses during the conflict and displacement? ____Yes ____No

If so how many IDP households report this (%of households) Explain

3. Are there any human disease outbreaks among the IDPs?

____Yes ____No

Are there any human health disease outbreaks among the host community? ____Yes ____No

If yes, indicate what diseases, who is affected and any humanitarian response implemented so far. Disease Who was Affected? Was there a response? (Yes/No) Acute Watery Diarrhoea (AWD) Malaria Cholera Other______Social Capital 1. What % of IDPs are receiving social support? What type of support are they receiving and from whom? % Receiving Support From Whom Type of Support Health Services Mosquito Nets Food Aid/Non Food Items

Social Support appendix Other ______2. What % of the IDPs receives support from relatives / friends within the town?

____%

3. What % of the IDPs receive remittances from other regions or from outside the country?

____%

Natural Capital 4. What % of the IDPs has access to clean, safe water?

____%

5. What % of the IDPs have access to latrines?

____%

6. What are the main sources of water for IDPs? ____Wells ____Free water from NGOs ____Boreholes ____Other______River

7. Is water free or sold? If sold how much does it cost for a jerry can of 20 liters? ____Free ____Sold ______Price/20 liter jerry can

Physical Capital 8. What was the cost of transport between the original place and current town?

______SoSh

2. Do IDPS have access to communication? Telephones, radios. ____Yes ______(What kind? Telephones, HF Radios, etc.) ____No

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 99 Issued March 7, 2008 9. What type of housing do the IDPs use? ______% in settlement, ______% in rent houses, ______% in community integration, etc. ______% other (Specify)______100%

and what is the average cost of monthly housing for IDPs in each of the above categories?

______SoSh per month in settlements, ______SoSh per month to rent houses, ______SoSh per month in community integration,. ______SoSh per month in other (Specify)______

Financial Capital 1. Have IDPs incurred debts since they arrived? ____Yes ____No

If so what is the source of debt? And on average how much? ____Relatives and friends ____Purchase of Medicine ____Host Community ____House Rent Purchase of Food Other 2. What % of the IDPs has found employment in this town?

____%

What is the type of employment? ____Casual Labour ____ Washing Clothes ____Skilled Labour ____Farming ____Porter ____Loaders ____Construction ____ Other______

What are the average daily household earnings?

______% 0 – 15,000 SoSh (very poor) ______% of 15,000-30,000 SoSh (poor) appendix ______% of 30,000-50,000 SoSh (middle) ______% of 50,000 SoSh and Over (better off) 100%

3. Is credit available for IDPs? ____Yes ____No

And what are the sources of credit? ____Relatives and friends ____Host families ____Money Transfer from the Diaspora ____Shops ____ Other______

How much can they borrow?

4. Do IDPs have access to remittances? ____Yes ____No

If yes what are their: • Current levels since displacement______• Previous levels in their home______

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 100 Issued March 7, 2008 ______C LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES 1. What are the main sources of food for the IDPs? Roughly estimate the % by source of food.

______% Exchange (food for labouring) ______% Market Purchases ______% Gifts from relatives (in kind) ______% Gifts from community (in kind) ______% Humanitarian Relief ______% Sell of relief Food aid ______% Sell of relief non-food items (blankets, etc) ______% other (specify) 100% 2. What are the main sources of income for the IDPs?

______% from employment (portering, washing clothes, being dallaals (middlemen), etc.) ______% Market Purchases (petty trade, blacksmiths, hair-cuttting, etc) ______% Gifts from relatives (in cash) ______% Gifts from community (in cash) ______% Humanitarian Relief (cash labour or cash relief) ______% other (specify) 100% 3. What are the 3 main expenditure patterns for the IDPs? Please rank from 1 to 3 with 1 being most important. ____Food ____ Shelter ____Water ____ Communication ____Medicine ____ Education Other 4. What are the major coping options for the IDPs? ____Social Support ____Money from diaspora ____Loans/Credits ____Petty Trading ____Gifts from relatives ____Casual Labour appendix ____ Other______

5. What will allow the IDPs to return to their home? ____Peace and Security ____Availability of Transport ____ Availability of food ____Stability within the government ____ Other______

6. What are the risk factors to monitor over the next six months? ____Insecurity situation ____Flood ____ Availability of food ____Disease outbreaks ____Access to income ____Lack of shelter/poor housing ____Conflict ____Commodity prices ____ Other______Summary statement of IDP vulnerability

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 101 Issued March 7, 2008

cks:

Quantity: L4: L4: L4: L4: L4: %; C % T %; FA %; MA %; C %

%; MC % T %; FC %; MC %

L3: L3: L3: L3: L3: Injuries: T ; FA ; MA ; C / worsening sii xumaaneysa sii . 7c / widespread widespread / / between different clans clans different between / appendix r districts names only): Analyst name: baahasan .

2b colaad qabiil colaad

. / unchanged L2: L2: L2: L2: L2: 4b deganaansho . 7b 1: From: From: 1: 2. From: 3: From: To: To: To: No. of hh: No. of hh: hh: of No. 4: From: To: No. of hh: / political dispute dispute political / / land ownership dispute dispute ownership / land arming) (including war for / preparation FSAU DEYR ASSESSMENT CONFLICT MONITORING FORM FSAU FORM DEYR ASSESSMENT CONFLICT MONITORING / no dialogue no dialogue /

/ boundary dispute dispute boundary / / fighting where some groups not targeted targeted not groups some where / fighting / within same clan / water and pasture pasture and / water / complete conflict resolution / livestock raiding / retaliation / ceasefire agreement agreement / ceasefire / dialogue dialogue / / epicentre of theinsecurity (name of town or village) / improving / improving / looting / compensation paid (‘blood’ payment) payment) (‘blood’ paid / compensation / tense, fluid, insecure, but no fighting no fighting but insecure, fluid, tense, / / terms accepted accepted / terms / limited spread / clans separated, no fighting no fighting separated, clans / / fighting where all groups are targeted targeted are groups all where / fighting / peace / conflict induced induced conflict /

sheegasho dhuleed sheegasho siyaasadeed dagaal qasnaan colaad wada hadal walaayo humanitarian aid biyo iyo daaq iyo biyo bililiqaysi nabad la’an wada hadal hagageysa kooban sokeeye colaad xabad joojin xabad dagaal sooh’din dagaal argoosi/aane dagaal diyargarow go’beed dagaal diyo bixin

xasuuq dhac xoolaad dhac heshiis buuxa heshiis ...... 3a 3b 3c 3d 3e 3f 3g 5a 5b 5c 5d 5e 6a 6b 6c 6d 6e L1: L1: xuddun dagaal xuddun 7a Deaths: T ; FA ; MA ; C Asset 1: Quantity: L1: L4: L2: L1: L3: L1: L1: T %; FA %; MA %; C % Asset 2: Quantity: T %; FA %; MA %; C % T %; FC %; MC % T %; FA %; MA Point 1: T %; FC %; MC % Point 2: T %; FC Asset 3: No. of roadblo 6f 3h. 3h. 5f barakac displacements 2a 4a ’07/08 Assessment: Conﬂict Monitoring Form

Deyr (select only one) only (select

(select only one) only (select

(select all that apply by indicating Yes Yes by indicating apply that all (select No) or Reporting date: Region: District (use pre-wa CONFLICT INDICATORS 1. Location of insecurity Magnitude 2. ENGLISH / SOMALI Trigger 3. Yes by indicating apply that all (select No) or Type 4. Intensity 5. Yes by indicating apply that all (select No) or Resolution 6. trend insecurity Overall 7. ANSWER one) only (select COMMENTS ADDITIONAL OUTCOMESCONFLICT Displacement 8. and injuries deaths Human 9. assets of destruction and/or Loss 10. grazing/browsing to Access 11. land agricultural to Access 12. to water sources Access 13. 14. Access to markets services health to Access 15. to schools Access 16. Roadblocks 17. 5.94 FSAU FSAU 5.94

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 102 Issued March 7, 2008 DEYR ASSESSMENT CONFLICT MONITORING FORM NOTES

EXPLANATION 1. The aim of this form is to track changes in insecurity during the Deyr season in a systematic manner. However, FSAU will not use this form to report on insecurity and conflict in a separate report. The information will be integrated into and strengthen the FSAU analysis of food and livelihood security. This form will be used to monitor all forms of insecurity, including conflict, tension but no fighting, and even the presence of roadblocks. It will also be used to try to develop initial data on the outcomes of insecurity by incorporating indicators of availability and access across the livelihood capitals. 2. One form should be completed in soft copy for each district. Where there is more than one ‘conflict’ or incident of insecurity per district separate forms should be completed for each. 3. The form should cover analysis for the CURRENT DEYR SEASON, not the day of data collection. 4. When completing the form follow the specific instructions given for each question. 5. You are not expected to travel to areas of conflict. All information should be collected through your normal information networks and during the course of the Deyr assessment fieldwork. If the information is available but you are unable to collect information for points 1 to 17 (perhaps for personal security reasons), please note ‘Unable to collect’. 6. Do not leave blanks/uncompleted questions/sections. Reporting date – the current date Region – region name District – district name (use pre-war district names only) Analyst Name – your full name CONFLICT INDICATORS 1. Location of the insecurity. Note the epicentre of the insecurity, where the insecurity is concentrated. 2. Magnitude. Note whether the insecurity is of limited spread or it is widespread (indicate 2a or 2b). In the space for specific comments try to describe the boundaries of the insecurity, for example, within a named town or spread across several named villages or even part of a district. 3. Trigger. Identify and note the initial trigger for the current dispute or insecurity (indicate Yes or No). 4. Type. Identify and note whether the insecurity is between sub-clans within the same clan or between different clans (indicate 4a or 4b). If you wish these clans and sub-clans can be named. 5. Intensity. This is a SCALE of intensity, from peace to the most severe conflict where everyone is targeted. Identify the level of

intensity of the conflict reached during the reporting period (indicate Yes or No). More than one level of conflict may be noted, appendix for example, ‘tense, fluid, insecure, but no fighting’ and ‘clans separated, no fighting’. 6. Resolution. This is a SCALE of resolution, from no dialogue, through a ceasefire, to complete conflict resolution where all compensation has been paid. Note the phase that has been reached in the reporting period (indicate Yes or No). 7. Overall insecurity trend. Note whether the overall level of insecurity or conflict has improved, remained unchanged, or has worsened compared to the previous month (indicate 7a or 7b or 7c). CONFLICT OUTCOMES 8. Displacement. For conflict induced displacement only give details (region, district, settlement) of up to 4 main locations that households (or partial households) have been displaced from and where they have moved to - give the numbers of households (or partial households) displaced to each of those named locations. If there are fewer than 4 main locations note ‘no data’ in the relevant space. If households (or partial households) start returning note the number of households (or partial households) who have returned to their home area. Try to provide information that is broken down by gender (men, women, and children). 9. Human deaths and injuries. If there have been any human deaths or injuries estimate these in total for the reporting period. Note total deaths (T) and by gender if possible: Female Adult (FA), Male Adult (MA) and Children (C) 10. Loss and/or destruction of assets. If there has been any loss and/or destruction of assets specify which assets and try to quantify the level of asset loss (e.g. homes, food stores, standing crops, seeds, livestock (camels, cattle, goats and sheep), water catchments, business assets (such as shops), and tools) (by gender if this is different). 11. Access to grazing/browsing. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of grazing/browsing where access has reduced due to insecurity. 12. Access to agricultural land. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of agricultural land where access has reduced due to insecurity. 13. Access to water sources. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) (by district and nearest town) of water sources for human and livestock use where access has reduced due to insecurity. 14. Access to markets. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of the markets (for food purchases and/or asset sales) where access has reduced due to insecurity. 15. Access to health services. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of health services where access has been reduced by insecurity. Note total % change (T), increase or decrease by gender if this is different: Female Adult (FA), Male Adult (MA) and Children (C) 16. Access to schools. Note the main locations (L)(up to 4 in order of importance) of schools (dugsi) where access has been reduced by insecurity. Note total % change (T), increase or decrease by gender if this is different: Female Child (FC); Male Child (MC). 17. Roadblocks. For 1 named main commercial transport route in the district note the number of roadblocks/checkpoints between identified locations (Point 1 and Point 2). For example, on the stretch of road between Point 1 and Point 2 there are 5 roadblocks/ checkpoints. The same route should be reported on from month to month so that trends can be identified. ADDITIONAL COMMENTS. Please note any supplementary information that will strengthen the analysis in the spaces provided or on a separate sheet of paper.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 103 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.5 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire

THE FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT FOR SOMALIA (FSAU)

2007/08 Deyr SEASON NUTRITION RAPID ASSESSMENT TOOL Interviewer’s name: ______Region: ______Date of interview: ______District: ______Supervisor’s name: ______Village: ______Date checked: ______Name of the farmer:______Household size (in numbers): ______In collaboration with The Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS/USAID)

FSAU POST DEYR ASSESSMENT 2007 Rapid Nutrition Assessment Guidelines

INSTRUCTIONS FOR USE

Overview: Rapid assessment tools are essential in countries with high vulnerability to shocks where populations are at risk of malnutrition. This is particularly relevant in Somalia with recurrent shocks such as ongoing conflict and natural disaster (drought, flooding, etc). They provide a means of identifying in a very short space of time areas of risk of malnutrition, the need for a more detailed assessment such as a nutrition survey and the need for emergency interventions.

Criteria: This tool aims to be used in situations where concern has been raised over the nutritional situation, such as recent displacement, or previously inaccessible areas becoming accessible, or additional shocks such as floods, drought, or where there is insufficient time to conduct a more detailed assessment etc. In addition if an agency has phased out of an area and wants to monitor if there is a need to re establish programmes then this can be used. This tool can be used in an assessment lasting from a few hours to a few days depending on the size of the team and the level of information available. In addition it can be used for one or more villages/camps again depending on the time and size of team available.

appendix Team: The tool should only be used by experienced and trained nutrition staff. At a minimum at least one experienced nutritionist should lead the assessment and where necessary can train community health workers on the ground on the day if the size of the assessment area and population warrants many staff members. However for the Post Deyr Assessment all Nutrition Field Analysts will be the only ones using this tool. Each of you in your location will then administer the tool fully by yourself in order to ensure consistency and high quality data. The tool is designed so that this it is feasible for one person to conduct this.

Methodology: -

1) ANTHROPOMETRIC DATA The most appropriate method for determining nutritional status in a rapid assessment is by using MUAC both for children from 1 to 5 years, checking for oedema and if there is sufficient time and staff and a concern then also for pregnant and breast feeding mothers. In addition to nutrition, key informant interview and focus group discussions need to be held to gather additional information of health, food security, water and sanitation, child care practices and security where relevant.

Unlike nutrition surveys the sampling does not have to be done in a statistically significant way. However the following steps have been identified to give a rough estimate of the nutritional situation using MUAC: A tally sheet to record the results is attached

1 Children 1-5years can also be roughly estimated to measure between 75-110cm. Therefore in order to reduce the time identifying the correct age, which is not always easy, a pole can be made marked with the height of both 75 and 110cm for ease of selection. These poles have been provided with the lower mark indicating 75cm and the upper 110cm. Only children measuring between the two marks should be included in this assessment.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 104 Issued March 7, 2008 2. On arrival in the location initially estimate the total number of the households in the village/ camp/ town through discussions with the sheikhs/ camp leaders: • If the total number of households is less than 100 - go to ALL households and measure the MUAC of the ALL children aged 1-5 years (75-110cm) • If the total number of households is >100 – randomly select 100 children 1-5yrs – this can be done by going to the centre of the village, tossing a pen in the air and following the following the direction of the pen to the outside edge of the village. Then traveling from one edge of the village to the other opposite edge and measure ALL the children in the households to your right along that direction or line. • If 100 children are not reached when you get to the edge of town/village then change direction and follow a different line from the edge of town and repeat this until a total of 100 children are measured. This will ensure the new arrivals on the outskirts of towns are included as well as those in the centre – this is relevant with the recent displacement from the floods

2. MUAC must only be taken on the LEFT arm 3. All children should also be checked for oedema - if a case is suspected then this MUST be confirmed by the nutrition analyst. It is essential that all staff are well trained in checking for oedema. 4. To avoid repeating a measurement on the same child when there are more than one measurers - a marker pen can be used to leave a visible small mark on the child once measured such as on the top of the left hand. 5. During this walk, observations on the living conditions, food availability and preparation, asset ownership, water and sanitation facilities etc should be taken into consideration which can then be discussed when holding an informal FGD or KI interview

Reporting of Anthropometric Data: Reports should be short and should be released within a few days of the rapid assessments especially if the situation is of concern. A draft template has been attached in Annex 2 and outlines the key areas to be covered in

the report. When reporting on the nutritional status, it is essential to report BOTH the absolute numbers and % of appendix each cut off point in MUAC. However the numbers MUST NEVER BE REPORTED IN % GLOBAL ACUTE MALNUTRITION or % SEVERE ACUTE MALNUTRITION. This classification can only be reserved for a statistically significant nutrition surveys otherwise the figures may be quoted out of context and therefore misinterpreted. Reports must always state the methodology, the tools used and that this is a rapid assessment therefore cannot be interpreted in a statistically significant manner. Where necessary if the rapid assessment is indicating an area of concern recommendations for a more detailed assessment such as a nutrition surveys should be made. A sample is in Annex 3.

2) Other Data on underlying causes

Information should also be included on other factors that can affect nutrition such as health, child care practices, water and sanitation. Our food security colleagues will already be collecting food security data through a focus group so we don’t need to. Ideally this other data should be collected through a focus group where women are present and IDP’s if there is displacement into that location. Therefore rather than establish a new focus group on arrival complete the anthropometric data collection then join the focus group and ask your questions at the end. In addition if you have any other points that are not included and that you feel will affect nutrition and are relevant please do add as they will contribute to the overall analysis

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 105 Issued March 7, 2008 village and one tick per child. For ease of completion please group the children into ten so the first ten measured the results should be in the first box the second 10 in the second row etc (see Annex 3 for an sample)

Screening Data / Rapid Assessment Tool - Children under 5 years Name Village:______Date:______Name of Screener:______

Children under 5years ( MUAC only to be measured on children 1 year and above or 75-110cm standing) Child Group <11cm 11-12.4cm 12.5-13.4cm >/=13.5 Oedema Clinical signs of (75-110) malnutrition <75cm (oedema or marasmus Child 1 - 10

Child 11 – 20

Child 21 – 30

Child 31 – 40

Child 41 – 50 appendix

Child 51 – 60

Child 61 – 70

Child 71 – 80

Child 81 – 90

Child 91 – 100

TOTAL

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 106 Issued March 7, 2008 Annex 2 - Report Summary Table These questions should be asked in the focus groups discussion. Please join the food security team once you have completed the anthropometric component rather than setting up a separate group but make sure there are women present and actively contributing and displaced if appropriate

Interviewer Name

Date of Assessment Region District Village

Recent Displacement Y / N If Y what numbers and whether this is in or out displacement from this location What was the main cause for the displacement? When did the majority arrive?

Information available of the current nutritional status (previous surveys, feeding centre statistics, health centre data etc)

appendix SOCIAL CARE ENVIRONMENT Shelter conditions for the If displacement any immediate concerns on child care practices? Please majority (please circle) below

1) Good 2) Basic but reasonable 3) Very Poor

HEALTH SITUATION Any recent incidence of Acute Watery Y / N Diarrhoea in this location?

If yes, Please describe how the incidence of Minimum / Moderate / Severe Acute Watery Diarrhoea has affected Comment nutrition status of children in the last month, circle minimum moderate or severe.

Top 3 illnesses for Recent Are there any Are the Health Can communities <5yrs Outbreaks? Health Services services functioning access the health Available (do they have staff services drugs etc) 1) Y / N Y / N Y / N Y / N 2) If Y what? If N how close is If N why not? 3) nearest (km)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 107 Issued March 7, 2008 WATER List the main Describe the quality of this Do families have sufficient What water storage sources of water (pls ask to see the water quantities for drinking during containers are being drinking water then circle then option most the day? (circle) used by the majority appropriate) - please list

1) Reasonable Y / N Unclean If N why not? 2) Not sure

SANITATION List the main sanitation facilities List any concerns the community may have about the used now by the community sanitation, such as the impact of the recent floods

Nutrition Programmes SFC (Location, Agency, Nos of TFC / CTC (Location, Agency, List the closest nutrition admissions) Nos of admissions) programmes available for referral if malnourished cases are identified and the agency that operates and where possible recent trends in admissions if a nutrition worker from a feeding centre is available to speak with.

Summary of Nutrition Status: - Children 1 to 5years

appendix MUAC (cm) Nutritional status N= ( % ) >13.4cm 12.5cm to 13.4cm At risk of Malnutrition 11.0cm to 12.4cm Moderate Malnutrition < 11.0 cm Severe Malnutrition Oedema Severe Malnutrition

CONCLUSIONS - To be completed by Nutrition Analyst once all the data has been collected from the village, add additional paper if necessary Main Problems Identified: (summarise the key findings)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 108 Issued March 7, 2008 Conclusion: Think about all the information collected and decide whether the nutrition situation is: i). very critical, ii). Critical, iii). Serious iv). Alert. how many people are affected, is the situation likely to deteriorate.

Sample - Screening Data / Rapid Assessment Tool - Children under 5 years Name Village: El Eak Date: 15th December 2006 Name of Screener: Mohamed Ibrahim

Children under 5years ( MUAC only to be measured on children 1 year and above or 75-110cm standing) Child Group <11cm 11-12.4cm 12.5-13.4cm >/=13.5 Oedema Clinical signs of malnutrition <1yr Child 1 - 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Child 11 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20

Child 21 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30 1 1 1 appendix

Child 31 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40 1

Child 41 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50 1

Child 51 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 60

Child 61 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 70 Child 71 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 80 1 1 1

Child 81 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90

Child 91 – 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100 1 1

TOTAL 3 8 16 70 3 0 Summary of Nutrition Status: - Children 1 to 5years MUAC (cm) Nutritional status N= 100 (100 % ) >13.4cm 70 (70%) 12.5cm to 13.4cm At risk of Malnutrition 16 (16%) 11.0cm to 12.4cm Moderate Malnutrition 8 ( 8%) < 11.0 cm Severe Malnutrition 3 ( 3%) Oedema Severe Malnutrition 3 (3%)

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 109 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.6 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Framework for Estimating the Nutrition Situation

Framework for Estimating the Nutrition Situation

DRAFT 5, November 2007

Background of Tool This framework was developed by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation Food Security Analysis Unit, Somalia through a consultative process in collaboration with Somalia and regional based nutrition and health experts from a range of UN and NGO agencies: UNICEF, WHO, WFP, Concern Worldwide, IMC, ACF to enhance integrated analysis of nutrition information in Somalia. This came out of an identified need for a type of tool to describe the nutrition situation creating a contextual analysis rather than focus on prevalence estimates and thresholds as has traditionally been the case. This tool has been used in the FSAU Post Gu ’07 assessment and formed the basis of the Estimated Nutrition Situation Map. (see below for examples of presentation of data and the resulting map) This remains a working document and will be updated and refined as new research become available.

A. Core/Anthropometry Related Indicators

Reference Indicators Acceptable Alert Serious Critical Very Critical

10-14.9% 15-19.9% >20% or Global Acute or where there has (or where there has (Or where there has a Malnutrition1 5-9.9% usual been a significant been a significant significant increase <5% (WHO Reference) range and stable increase from increase from from seasonally seasonally adjusted seasonally adjusted adjusted previous previous surveys) previous surveys) surveys) 2 >4% >5% SAM (WHZ) (or where there has (Or where there has a (WHO to advice on been a significant larger significant thresholds) <0.5% 0.5 - 2.9% 3-4% increase from increase from Oedema – proportion of seasonally adjusted seasonally adjusted cases, trends in numbers previous surveys) previous surveys) CMR3/10,000/day 1-1.99/10,000/day Refs: i). Sphere 2004; 2 – 4.99/10,000/day >5/10,000/day Include information ii). Emergency Field Include information as Include information as <0.5/10,000/day 0.5-0.99/10,000/day as to the main Handbook (A guide for to the main causes and to the main causes causes and likely UNICEF staff, pg 139) likely progression and likely progression progression July 2005 appendix Under five years <1/10,000/day 1-1.99/10,000/day 2-3.9/10,000/day >4/10,000/day >10/10,000/day mortality rates 4 10-14.9% >15% MUAC Rapid or where there has Or where there has a Assessment been a significant significant increase (% <12.5cm) <5% <5% 5-9.9% increase from from seasonally Ref: FSAU Estimates 5 seasonally adjusted adjusted previous To be confirmed previous surveys) surveys) Low numbers of Low numbers of acutely High with significant Very low High levels and stable acutely malnourished increasing numbers numbers of numbers of acutely HIS6 Nutrition Trends malnourished for children from in >2 rounds of acutely malnourished (Ref: HIS) area and stable previous months but acutely malnourished malnourished children’s (seasonally (seasonally increasing in >2 children from children adjusted) adjusted) rounds (seasonally screening adjusted) Sentinel7 Site Trend - Low levels and one Increasing levels High levels of levels of children round indicating Very low and based on two malnourished children Increasing levels with identified as acutely increase stable levels rounds (seasonally and stable (seasonally increasing trend malnourished (WHZ), (seasonally adjusted) adjusted) Ref: FSAU SSS adjusted)

1 Global Acute Malnutrition (weight for height <-2 Z score/oedema), data source - nutrition surveys 2 Severe Acute Malnutrition (weight for height <-3 Z score/oedema), data source - nutrition surveys 3 Crude Mortality Rate, data source nutrition surveys 4 Mid Upper Arm Circumference, data source – rapid assessments 5 Follow up with S. Collins study/ Mike Golden/ Mark Myatt and on-going studies 6 Health Information System, data source – health facilities 7 Data source, over 120 sentinel sites in different livelihoods in South Central Somalia

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 110 Issued March 7, 2008

B. Supplementary/Contextual Indicators

Reference Indicators Acceptable Alert Serious Critical Very Critical

Poor dietary diversity8 for population <5% <5% 5-9.9% 10-25% >25% (<4 food groups) Health9: Normal levels, AWD 1 case Outbreak not contained and/or in non endemic area – limited (seasonally adjusted) seasonally access to treatment Frequency of reported adjusted, Measles 1 case CFR for AWD >2% rural outbreaks of AWD &, Review data in CFR for AWD >1% urban malaria and measles, relevant Malaria – doubling of

context cases in a 2 week AWD – duration exceed >6 wks period in hyper

endemic areas in the

South – using RDT’s 10 Acute Food and Food Security Situation Generally Chronically Food Humanitarian Famine/ Humanitarian Livelihoods - current IPC status Food Secure Insecure Emergency Catastrophe Crisis

C. Risk Factors Reference Indicators Acceptable Alert Serious Critical Very Critical

Meal Frequency11 in >25% 20-25% <5% <20% 5-19.9% addition to breastfeeding 12 i). 6-8 months old 2-3 <2

ii). 9 months old & above 3-4 <3 13 Breastfeeding Practices 90% and i). Exclusive BF for 6 mths above 50-89% 12-49% 0-11% appendix ii). Complementary Feeding 95% and introduced at 6 months 80-94% 60-79% 0-59% above reference

Immunization & Vitamin A Supplementation Coverage: Measles– >95% 80-94.9% <80% Campaigns

Vitamin A – one dose in last >95% 80-94.9% <80% 6 months) Campaigns - Access to Affected pop with access to Reduced access to Limited access to humanitarian formal/informal services: N/A humanitarian support humanitarian support Negligible or no access interventions for feeding services, for most vulnerable for majority most vulnerable Selective Feeding 14 / Programmes Available Availability of therapeutic/ supplementary feeding programmes/ services and N/A None available referral systems. Coverage – access to available services, coverage of availability of services Prevailing Unstable Limited spread, low Widespread, high Insecurity structural Widespread, high intensity disrupted tension intensity intensity peace

8 Data source, nutrition surveys, dietary studies and sentinel sites 9 Data source, nutrition surveys, Health Information System, Sentinel sites, feeding centres, rapid assessments 10 Data source, FSAU food security analysis 11 Data source, nutrition surveys and dietary studies 12 FANTA, 2003. Generating indicators of appropriate feeding of children 6 through 23 months from the KPC 2000+ WHO, 2003. Infant and Young child feeding. A tool for assessing national practices, policies and programmes 13 FANTA, 2003. Generating indicators of appropriate feeding of children 6 through 23 months from the KPC 2000+ WHO, 2003. Infant and Young child feeding. A tool for assessing national practices, policies and programmes 14 Data source, 12 Therapeutic Feeding Centers and 14 Supplementary Feeding Centers

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 111 Issued March 7, 2008

Key Points: i) To make a statement on the nutrition situation, a minimum of two Core indicators, two of the Supplementary indicators and two risk factors are recommend ensuring a reliable analysis. ii) The overall classification of the nutrition situation for a given area is done taking into account historical nutrition and contextual data. Triangulation of all indicators is also undertaken. iii) It is not necessary for all the indicators to fall into one category in fact this will rarely happen, the idea is to look at the bigger picture in terms of where the indicators are currently, where they have come from and where they are likely to go to make the overall statement of the situation. iv) Where possible nutrition information should be analysed at livelihood level and not at administrative level, this is the case in Somalia. v) The references or cut offs used for GAM, SAM, CMR and Immunization coverage are consistent with the international ranges. However, for many of the other indicators, agreed international ranges/ thresholds for each categorisation are lacking. As such, the various ranges have been developed following analysis of available nutrition data from Somalia. vi) Other contexts may need to refine certain indicators such as dietary diversity and MUAC, currently they are based on the historical analysis from FSAU vii) Further inclusion of indicators relating to water and sanitation, displacement and population concentration for displacement are required. viii) The age of the data needs to be considered and ideally should be from the current season. If the data is from an earlier season this needs to be considered in the overall analysis and may affect the results. ix) This tool should only be used be nutrition experts who have the ability to critically evaluate and contextualize nutrition information

For any queries relating to the development and application of the tool and to provide feedback please contact Grainne Moloney on [email protected].

appendix

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 112 Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.7 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment

Part 1: Area Affected, Phase Classiﬁcation, and Evidence in Support of Phase Classiﬁcation and Early Warning Levels

Part 1: Area Affected, Phase Classification, and Evidence in Support of Phase Classification and Early Warning Levels Affected Area Applicable Direct Evidence Indirect Evidence Phase Early Warning Reference (e.g., process or proxy indicators) Classification Outcomes v Direct Outcome Evidence in support of phase classification (Region, District, and/or v Source of Evidence v Indirect Evidence in support of phase (Tick Appropriate Livelihood Zone) (As defined by IPC v Evidence Reliability Score (1=very reliable, 2=somewhat reliable classification Box) (Tick Appropriate Boxes) Reference Table) 3=unconfirmed) v Source of Evidence v Write ‘Not Applicable’ if the outcome does not apply to situation v Evidence Reliability Score (1=very reliable, v Write ‘Not Available” if there is no reliable direct evidence 2=somewhat reliable 3=unconfirmed) v Identify the Phase Classification for each piece of evidence (GFS, CFI, AFLC, HE, F/HC) Crude mortality rate v v No Early Warning v Improvement malnutrition levels recorded in the Generally Food Acute malnutrition sentinel sites conducted in August in Bu’ale, Secure Sakow, Jilib,, Jamaame and Afmadow, ESR=2 Alert v Chronically Food Insecure v Epidemic communicable disease particularly Moderate Risk diarrhea malaria and ARI were high in the o Disease Acute Food and ACFL sentinel sites for Juba Valley coupled with Livelihood o HE limited access to health services which could Crisis o Famine/HC contribute high acute malnutrition’ ESR=2 Humanitarian High Risk Income sources: v Emergency o ACFL v Purchasing power: o HE v Food sources: Famine Food o Famine/HC Expenditures: Access/Availability v v Supply lines: v Social Access: v Others: v Sentinel site surveillance conducted in Juba August 06 revealed that >90% of the Dietary diversity households had consumed diversified meals comprising of three or more food groups. FSAU nutrition sentinel sites R=2 Water access/availability Destitution/ Displacement Civil Security

Coping

Structural Issues Hazards Livelihood Assets (5 capitals)

Part 2: Analysis of Immediate Hazard, Effects on Livelihood Strategies, and Implications for Immediate Response

Part 2: Immediate Hazards, Direct Food Security Problem, Effects on Livelihood Strategies, Risks to Monitor and Opportunities for Response appendix ANALYSIS ACTION Affected Area Phase Immediate Direct Food Effect on Livelihood Population Projected Trend Risk Factors Opportunities for Response Classification Hazards Security Strategies Affected to Monitor Problem (Region, (Immediate Response to Improve District, and (Tick (Driving (Access, (Summary Statements) (Characteristics & (Improving, No Access to Food and Assist with Livelihood Appropriate Forces) Availability, Percent of change, Other Immediate Needs, i.e. Zone) Box) and/or Population) Uncertain, Health, Shelter, etc.) Utilization) Worsening)

Generally Food Secure Chronically Food Insecure Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis Humanitarian Emergency Famine

Part 3: Analysis of Underlying Structures, Effects on Livelihood Assets, and Opportunities for Mitigation in the Medium and Long Term

Part 3: Undermining Structures and Processes, Effects on Livelihood Assets, and Mitigation in the Medium and Long Term

ANALYSIS ACTION Affected Area Phase Underlying Effect on Livelihood Assets Projected Opportunities to support livelihoods and address underlying Classification Causes Trend causes (Region, District and (Tick (Environmental Degradation, (Improving, (Policy, Programmes and/or Advocacy) Livelihood Appropriate Social, Poor Governance, (Summary Statements) No Change, Zone) Box) Marginalization, etc.) Uncertain, Worsening)

Generally Physical Capital: Food Secure Social Capital: Chronically Food Financial Capital: Insecure Acute Food Natural Capital: and Livelihood Crisis Human Capital: Humanitarian Emergency Local Political Capital: Famine

Note on Estimation of Affected Population Numbers

1. Deﬁne geographic area that spatially delineates the affected population (Chronically Food Insecure, Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis, Humanitarian Emergency, or Famine). 2. Identify the most current population estimates for this geographic area (i.e. WHO 2004 population estimates by district). 3. Adjust total population estimates to account for any known recent migration in or out of the affected area. 4. Estimate the percent of the population affected (for each Phase of Famine/Humanitarian Catastrophe, Humanitarian Emergency and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis) within the affected geographic area. The most appropriate method could be by livelihood zone, wealth group, but in come instances may be more accurate to estimate by clan, gender, etc.

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 113 Issued March 7, 2008 5.10. Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia livelihood zones map

FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 114 Issued March 7, 2008