Technical Series Report No V. 14 March 7, 2008 2007/08 Post Deyr Analysis Food Security Analysis Unit - Somalia Kalson Towers, Parklands Box 1230 Village Market Nairobi, Kenya Ph: 254-20-3745734 Fax: 254-20-3740598 Web site: www.fsausomali.org Email: [email protected] Technical and Funding Agencies Managerial Support European Commission FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 i Issued March 7, 2008 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 ii Issued March 7, 2008 Acknowledgement FSAU would like to thank the forty five partner agencies for their participation and support in this assessment and analysis (Appendix 5.7). This crucial assessment would not have been possible without the technical participation of 42 partners and the efficient and timely logistical support provided our partners. This assessment and analysis would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of the FSAU’s twenty six field based analysts who continue to work under very difficult conditions. Technical Partners participating in the Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment INGO/LNGOs: Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) - Puntland, Social-Life & Agriculture Development Organization - South (SADO), VETAID, MURDO, JDO, SAWA, PSAWEN, HIRDA, ERDO African Youth Development Association (AYODA), Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization (HAVAYOCO), Jubalandise Charity Centre (JCC), Somali Red Crescent Society (SRCS), Africa Rescue Committee (AFREC), National Environ- mental Research and Disaster Preparedness (NERAD) - Somaliland. Government Ministries: Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) - Somaliland, Min- istry of Planning and Rural Development (MPRD) - Somaliland, Ministry of Health and Labour (MoHL) - Somaliland, Ministry of Livestock (MoL) Somaliland, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) Somaliland, Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development (MoLG & RD)Puntland, Ministry of Water & Mineral Resources (MWMR) Puntland, Ministry of Planning & International co-operation (MOPIC) - Puntland, Ministry of Livestock Environment and Agriculture (MoLEA) - Puntland, Ministry of Health (MOH) - Puntland. Local Authorities: Lower Juba Local Authority, Middle Shebelle Local Authority, Lower Shebelle Local Authority, Gedo Local Authority, Luuq Local Authority, South West Local Authority, Hiran & Central Local Authority, Buale Local Authority. FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 iii Issued March 7, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 KEY FINDINGS 1 1.2 IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTION 2 1.3 SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS 5 1.4 REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS 6 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS 8 3. SECTOR REPORTS 11 3.1 CLIMATE AND RAINFALL OUTCOME 11 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY 15 3.3 CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION 16 3.4 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 22 3.5 MARKET ANALYSIS AND TRENDS 27 3.6 NUTRITION OVERVIEW 28 4. REGIONAL ANALYSIS 32 4.1 SOUTHERN REGION 32 4.1.1. GEDO REGION 32 4.1.2 LOWER AND MIDDLE JUBA 37 4.1.3 BAY AND BAKOOL 44 4.1.4 LOWER AND MIDDLE SHABELLE 51 4.1.5 HIRAN REGION 57 4.2 CENTRAL REGION 61 4.3 NORTHEAST 65 4.4 NORTHWEST 68 5. APPENDIX 73 5.1 Recent developments in Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 73 5.1.2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Reference Table 74 5.2 Time-Series of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifications (IPC) Maps of Somalia 2004 – 2008 76 5.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation by Region from Gu 2007 to Deyr ’07/08 77 5.3.1 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Gedo from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08. 77 5.3.2 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Lower and Middle Juba from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 78 5.3.3 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Bay and Bakool from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 79 5.3.4 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Shabelle Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 80 5.3.5 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Hiran from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 81 5.3.6 Progression of the Humanitarian Situation for Central from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 82 5.3.7 Progression of Humanitarian Situation for NE and NW Regions from Gu ’07 to Deyr ’07/08 83 5.4 Post Deyr ’07/08 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC for the period January to June 2008 84 5.4.1 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Region, January to June, 2008 84 5.4.2 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by District, January to June, 2008 85 5.4.3 Estimated Population in HE and AFLC by Livelihood Group, January to June, 2008 86 5.5 Deyr 2007/08 IDP Analysis 87 5.6 Livestock Herd Dynamics By Region and Livelihood Zone 88 5.6.1 Livestock Herd Dynamics Gedo Region 88 5.6.2 Livestock Herd Dynamics Central, Bay and Bakool Region 88 5.6.3 Livestock Herd Dynamics Hiran and Juba Region 89 5.6.4 Livestock Herd Dynamics Northwest and Northeast Region 89 5.7 List of Partners that Participated in the FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment 90 5.8 Post DEYR ’07/08 Assessment Process, Analytical Tools and Timeline 91 5.8.1 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment Overall Timeline 91 5.8.2 FSAU Regional Presentations on the Post Deyr ’07/08 Results 91 5.9 Assessment Instruments and Tools 92 5.9.1 Food Security Livelihoods and Nutrition Assessment Pastoral Questionnaire 92 5.9.2 Food Security, Livelihood and Nutrition Assessment: Crop Production Survey 95 5.9.3 FSAU IDP Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 97 5.94 FSAU Deyr ’07/08 Assessment: Conflict Monitoring Form 102 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 iv Issued March 7, 2008 5.9.5 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Nutrition Rapid Assessment Questionnaire 104 5.9.6 FSAU Post Deyr ’07/08 Framework for Estimating the Nutrition Situation 110 5.9.7 Evidence Based Analysis Template: Post Deyr ’07/08 Assessment 113 5.10. Map 30: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 114 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Somalia Food Security Situation Analysis: Post Deyr ‘07/08 Population Numbers, Jan. - June 2008 2 Table 2: Integrated Food Security and Humanitarian Phase Classification Reference Table (FAO/FSAU Dec. 2007) 4 Table 3: Overview of 2007/08 Post Deyr Assessment Analytical Process and Timeline 8 Table 4: Regional IDP Numbers and Percentage 14 Table 5: Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 16 Table 6: Northwest Gu/Karan ’07 Cereal Crop Production Estimates 17 Table 7: Local Cereal Production: Maize and Sorghum Availability in Southern Regions, July ’07 - June’08 18 Table 8: Local Production: Cereal and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions, July ’07 - June’08 18 Table 9: Annual Cereal Balance Sheet June 2007 to May 2008 20 Table 10: Water, Pasture and Livestock Body Conditions by Region 22 Table 11: Trends in Livestock, Production and Projected Herd Sizes 23 Table 12: Livestock Exported from Berbera Port (January - December ’07) 26 Table 13: Livestock Exported from Bossaso Port (January - December ’07) 26 Table 14: Exportation of Chilled Meat from Burao, Beletweyne, Mogadishu and Galkayo Abattoir (Jan. –Dec. 07) 26 Table 15: Gedo: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 32 Table 16: Gedo: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 33 Table 17: Lower and Middle Juba: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC). 37 Table 18: Lower and Middle Juba: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 38 Table 19: Bay and Bakool: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 44 Table 20: Bay and Bakool: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 45 Table 21: Lower and Middle Shabelle: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 51 Table 22: Lower and Middle Shabelle: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 52 Table 23: Hiran Region: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 57 Table 24: Hiran Region: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 58 Table 25: Central Region: Estimated Rural Population by District in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 61 Table 26: Central Region: Estimated Rural Population by Livelihood Zone in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) and Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) 62 LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection January through June 2008 3 Map 2: Somalia - Post Deyr ’07 Assessment Data Point Locations 9 Map 3: Cumulative RFE for 2007 Deyr season (Oct.- Dec.) 11 Map 4: RFE percent of normal for 2007 Deyr Season (Oct. – Dec.) 11 Map 5: NDVI anomaly December 3rd dekad 2007 11 Map 6: Livelihood Zones used in Time Series Analysis 13 Map 7: Insecurity Outcomes for Food and Livelihood Security (Nov. ’07 to Jan. ’07) 15 Map 8: Local Production Cereal Flow January ’08 19 Map 9: Somali Locust Watch by Livelihoods 21 FSAU Technical Series Report No V. 14 v Issued March 7, 2008 Map 10: Livestock Migration Trends Dec. 07 - Jan. ’08 22 Map 11: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2007 29 Map 12: Estimated Nutrition Situation, July 2007 29 Map 13: Estimated Nutrition Situation, January 2008 29 Map 14: Gedo Region Livelihood Systems 32 Map 15: Food Security Phase Classification - Gedo 32 Map 16: Juba Regions