Understanding the Drivers of Drought in Somalia: Environmental Degradation as a Drought Determinant Understanding the Drivers of Drought in Somalia: Environmental Degradation as a Drought Determinant Said M-Shidad H. Hussein November 2017 Page 1 Said M-Shidad H. Hussein is the Head of the Centre of Somali Studies at Puntland State University, Garowe, Somalia. He is an advisor to SIDRA The Somali Institute for Development and Research Analysis (SIDRA) Garowe, Puntland State of Somalia Tell: +252-5-846044 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.sidrainstitute.org This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non- Commercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0) Attribute to: Somali Institute for Development & Research Analysis 2017 Page 2 Understanding the Drivers of Drought in Somalia: Environmental Degradation as a Drought Determinant TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS----------------------------------------------------------------------------4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY------------------------------------------------------------------------------5 KEY FINDING----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS--------------------------------------------------------------------------7 1. INTRODUCTION-------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 2. METHODOLOGY----------------------------------------------------------------------------12 3. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION FACTORS AS DRIVERS OF DROUGHT----------------13 3.1 THE PROBLEM OF POPULATION GROWTH-----------------------------------------------------14 3.1.1 POPULATION GROWTH IN SOMALIA ACORDING T O STATISTICS------------14 3.1.2 POPULATION GROWTH ACCORDING TO COMMUNITY ORAL REGISTRATION--------------------------------------------------------------------------------14 3.2 THE COST OF URBANIZATION OR RURAL COLONIZATION----------------------------------14 3.2.1 THE PROBLEM OF THE PROLIFERATION OF THE WATER CATCHMENTS (BARKADO)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------15 3.2.2 THE PROBLEM OF TRAFFIC MOVEMENTS---------------------------------------------10 3.3 DEFORESTATION-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------18 3.3.1 DATA OVERVIEW-----------------------------------------------------------------------------18 3.3.2 DEALING WITH THE FIELDS FOR A SEARCH OF DATA----------------------------19 3.3.3 THE ROLE OF THE FOREST TO REDUCE GLOBAL WARMING--------------------22 3.4 SOIL EROSION------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------23 3.5 THE QUESTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE----------------------------------------------------------23 3.5.1 GLOBAL DIMENSIONS--------------------------------------------------------23 3.5.2 T HE BACKGROUND AND NATURE OF ENVIRONMENT OR CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOMALIA: A HISTORY OF 8000YR TRACEABLE TREND------------------24 A PICTURE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION-------------------------------------------------------26 3.5.3 DROUGHT PROFILE IN SOMALIA -------------------------------------------------------28 4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION-------------------------------------------------29 4.1 CONCLUSION----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------29 4.2 RECOMMENDATION-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------30 5. REFFERENCES-------------------------------------------------------------------------------31 APPENDIX-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------35 Page 3 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Comparative environment-related indicators (% except CO2 emissions) -------------------------------------------------------20 Table 2: Proration of 40 year 55% vegetation-cover loss---------------------------24 Table 3: Historical environment or climate change in Somalia-------------------28 Page 4 Understanding the Drivers of Drought in Somalia: Environmental Degradation as a Drought Determinant LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1a: Oil change place on the main road of Garowe, June 9, 2016-----13 Figure 1b: Oil change place in the front of Garowe government offices, and near the former Puntland State headquarters, Nov. 5, 2017-------------------------13 Figure 2: Overall cause-and-effect relationships-------------------------------------15 Figure 3 a: Kalabayr, a Barkad-created rural town, 56 KM SW of Garowe. Before the first barkad was dig here in late 1960s, this decertified valley was a forest, June 9, 2016. --------------------------------------------------------------------–18 Figure 3 b: Barkad without a cover at Kalabayr due to loss of traditional cover, duur, June 9, 2016.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------18 Figures 4 a & b: This truck transported herding families to this valley, but over run more times on the place for more services for them on the same day. The field damage should develop to be a gully. But how about fields over run by heavier trucks, May 25, 2017.-----------------------------------------------------------------------19 Figure 5a: Barkad-created Fardhaddin town, 55 KM W of Garowe. the last remaining of duur were up-rooted to cover rural houses and barkads, June 2, 2016.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------22 Figure 5b: rural house covered by duur,Kalabayr, June 9, 2016.------------------22 Figure 6: During the spring of 2015, Geelnuujis which means camel-feeding place, received around 600 MM of rain, the highest rate that a place in Somalia can usually earn. Why then is this young he-camel a weak and grazing the thorny sarmaan, supposedly unfavorable tree for him in a wet season? It’s because most of the small plants in the place are invasive plus that, camels prefer to graze the tall trees. That is the fate of where trees were once dwarfing the camels, May 31, 2015---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------22 Figure 7: The historical forest of Darayle Springs at Garowe is recently replaced with prosopsi.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------23 Figure 10: Lake Cuun , 50 km NE of Garowe, 4 km long and 60 m wide, is one of the few remaining lakes and springs in Nugaal valley. We recently found here ruins of sizeable medieval city which is apparently “Badda” of Al-Idriisi (1154) and Ibn Said (1260s). Obviously the lost city of Badda, which means ‘the sea’, was named after the lake which was far greater than today’s one, May 31st, 2016-----29 Page 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BP: Before present CE: Common Era (AD) FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations KM: Kilometer M: Meter MM: Millimeter PDRC: Puntland Development Research Center SIDRA: Somali Institute for Development and Research Analysis UNDP: United Nations Development Programme WSP: War-Torn Societies Project Page 6 Understanding the Drivers of Drought in Somalia: Environmental Degradation as a Drought Determinant EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Drought recurrence is a persistent phenomenon in Somalia. The latest one has continued for the last three years. Although the subdued Gu rains that fell between April and May provided some temporary relive, the depressed nature of this critical precipitation means the country is still experiencing the pangs of the drought to a great extent. At least for the herding community rainfall does not mark the end of drought. Rainfall failure is traditionally viewed as primary cause of a drought shock. Furthermore, overexploitation of natural resources leading to their degradation especially the vegetation cover (trees, grass etc) is a major contributor to drought conditions. The environmental degradation is basically characterized by depleting the natural resources and environmental pollution. These basic problems are themselves driven by population growth, rising urbanization, overgrazing, deforestation, soil erosion and climate change. The raging drought continues to choke a society that has already been weakened by shrinking pasture for livestock well-being and declining rural family income. The effects of environmental degradation are such that, even sufficient rainfalls do not adequately solve the problem as they contribute to further erosion in a land whose vegetative- cover ability has already been degraded, further reducing productivity. Moreover, the great efforts of the herders to save the herding lifestyle by utilizing new techniques such as expanding water points, and adopting mobile watering and transporting systems exacerbate the problem. In the foregoing, the society is left with only two options; to continue watching the deterioration increase in scale and veracity towards an irreversible national disaster or taking determined, short-term emergency actions combined with long-term solutions such as adoption of a sedentary pastoralist system and integrative natural resource management. A common cause of misunderstanding of the nature of the problem maybe an impaired methodological or conceptual approach which may not represent the exact needs/ views of the local communities. For example, most of the existing materials tend to explain land degradation primarily through charcoal production; or identify drought mostly with climate change. For a researcher or a decision-maker, this concept may be misleading, and for a pastoralist it may lead to terminological inconvenience. Available