Understanding Household Responses to Food Insecurity and Famine Conditions in Rural Somaliland By Ismail Ibrahim Ahmed A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of London Wye College University of London December 1994 ProQuest Number: 11010333 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 11010333 Published by ProQuest LLC(2018). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 / ' " V ' .• •‘W^> / a - ; "n ^T.k:, raj V£\ aK ^ 's a ABSTRACT This thesis examines the responses adopted by rural households in Somaliland to changes in their resource endowments and market exchange during the 1988- 1992 food crisis. It tests whether there is a predictable sequence of responses adopted by rural households when faced with food insecurity and famine conditions and examines the implications of this for famine early warning and famine response. The research is based on fieldwork conducted in rural Somaliland in 1992. A sample of 100 households interviewed just before the outbreak of the war in 1987 were re-sampled, allowing comparisons to be made before and after the crisis. These households experienced food insecurity and famine conditions caused by the 1988 war which displaced almost the entire population and disrupted markets, trade and food production. The thesis reviews droughts and famines from the late 19th century to the present and investigates their causes and impacts on rural households. It also examines both the adaptive and coping strategies developed by the households in response to these crises. These strategies have largely been successful in mitigating the effects of droughts and famines and preventing widespread starvation in most food crises. It is argued that droughts and famines in post­ colonial periods were characterised by a lack of public intervention and a failure of policies which contributed to the long-term vulnerability of the households. The hypothesis that there is a predictable pattern of responses adopted by rural households is rejected on the basis of empirical evidence presented in this thesis. The implication of this is that monitoring response sequences cannot generally be used to provide indicators of the level of stress faced by households in crisis situations as they can produce misleading information. It is argued that greater understanding of market conditions and household resource allocation is required if household responses are to be used for famine early warning and famine intervention. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Many people have helped me during the preparation of this thesis. I am grateful to all of them for their assistance. I wish to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Mr Laurence Smith, who patiently read through countless drafts of the thesis and made many constructive criticisms and valuable suggestions. I am also grateful to Professor Ian Carruthers for his advice, support and assistance throughout my postgraduate studies at Wye College. My thanks are also due to Mr Kelvin G. Balcombe and Professor Paul Webster who helped with the analysis. I wish to express my sincere thanks to my sponsors the Hugh Pilkington Charitable Trust, the Arab-British Chamber Charitable Foundation and the Africa Educational Trust. This thesis would not have been possible without their generous financial assistance. I would also like to acknowledge with thanks the grant I received from the Newby Trust. During my field work I received assistance from various individuals and organisations. In particular, I am indebted to Abdi Muse, Abdirisak Sh Muhumed and Ahmed Ismail who helped me to cany out the survey work in Gabiley at a particularly difficult period. In Hargeisa, I am grateful to Abdillahi Aw Ali and Adam Hassan for helping me with the interviews. I benefited greatly from my discussions with the great Somali poet, Mohamed Hashi Dhamac (Gaarriye), who provided me useful information. I would also like to thank Ahmed Yonis of IGADD in Djibouti and officials of the Early Warning System, RRC, in Addis Ababa. Finally, I am indebted to my friends of the Somaliland expatriate community in London. In particular, I am grateful to my close friend, Ahmed-Nassir Hersi, who read some of the chapters. His comments were especially valuable. I would also like to thank the staff of the Somali Relief Association (SOMRA) UK. v CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .................................................................................. iv CHAPTER 1. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM ............................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem ................................................................. 2 1.3 Objectives ......................................................................................... 6 1.4 Hypotheses ....................................................................................... 7 1.5 Organisation of the Thesis .............................................................. 8 CHAPTER 2. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ..................................... 12 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 12 2.2 Theories of F am in e ........................................................................ 12 2.3 Famine Early W arning ................................................................... 21 2.4 Household Responses to F am ine .................................................. 30 2.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .......................................... 38 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 38 3.2 Data Collection ............................................................................... 38 3.2.1 Study A re a........................................................................ 39 3.2.2 Sampling Procedure ....................................................... 41 3.2.3 Questionnaire Design .................................................... 44 3.2.4 Interviews with key inform ants ..................................... 45 3.2.5 Secondary Data .............................................................. 46 vi 3.3 Analytical M ethods ................................................................ 46 3.4 Conclusion . ............................................................................. 50 CHAPTER 4. DROUGHTS AND FAMINES, 1888-1987 ......................... 52 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 52 4.2 The Great Famine, 1888-92 .......................................................... 52 4.2.1 C auses................................................................................ 53 4.2.2 Impact and Household Responses ................................... 55 4.3 Droughts and Famines, 1900-1959 ............................................. 60 4.3.1 C auses................................................................................ 63 4.3.2 Im pact ................................................................................ 69 4.3.2 Household Responses ................................................... 80 4.4 Droughts and Famines, 1960-87 .................................................. 86 4.4.1. Causes ............................................................................. 88 4.4.2 Impact and Household Responses ................................... 90 4.5 Conclusions ..................................................................................... 93 CHAPTER 5. RURAL ECONOMY BEFORE THE WAR ....................... 96 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 96 5.2 Agriculture in G abiley ................................................................... 96 5.2.1 Agricultural Development in the District .................... 99 5.2.2 Crop Production ............................................................... 104 5.2.3 Livestock Production ....................................................... 109 5.3 Qat in the Rural E conom y ............................................................ 113 5.4 Food and Livestock Markets ....................................................... 116 5.4.1 Food Markets .................................................................. 116 5.4.2. Livestock Markets .......................................................... 120 vii 4.4 Social Networks and the Moral Economy ................................. 124 4.5 Conclusions . ............................................................................. 128 CHAPTER 6. THE EFFECTS OF THE WAR AND THE SUBSEQUENT CRISIS ................................................................................................................ 130 6.1 Introduction