Market Segmentation and Duty Cycles

Market segmentation and duty cycles

Dr. Felipe Rodríguez 19th March 2018

G20 Transport Task Group: Deep Dive to Support Heavy-Duty Vehicle Efficiency Labeling and Standards Meeting #4 Introduction

§ Vehicle simulation and component certification procedures can be easily adapted to the other regions.

§ On the other hand, the definition of the heavy-duty vehicle segments and duty cycles are market-specific.

§ This presentation aims at providing examples from different regions, and the solutions adopted for addressing the variety of heavy-duty vehicle types and uses.

2 ICCT market studies for HDVs

§ European vehicle market statistics, 2017/2018 https://www.theicct.org/publications/european-vehicle-market-statistics-20172018

§ Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China https://www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech- potential

§ Market Penetration of Fuel Efficiency Technologies for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the EU, US and China http://www.theicct.org/market-penetration-HDV-fuel-efficiency-technologies

§ Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Canada http://www.theicct.org/market-analysis-heavy-duty-commercial-trailers-canada

§ Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union http://www.theicct.org/overview-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-and-co2-emissions- european-union

§ Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India 3 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Key differences between A comparison of China, India, the major markets the U.S. and the EU.

4 The market consolidation differs significantly between regions (2016)

100% OTHERS OTHERS OTHERS OTHERS MAHINDRA OTHERS VOLVO 90% ISUZU SML ISUZU GMC DAIMLER BENZ MACK IVECO VOLVO 80% 21-50 PETERBILT VECV SCANIA PACCAR KENWORTH 70% 11-20 SAIC CHEVROLET ASHOK XIAMEN KLM LEYLAND MERCEDES VOLVO 60% CIMC DODGE BENZ CNHTC YUTONG 50% INTERNATIONAL JAC

SHAANXI AUTO Market Share 40% DAIMLER FREIGHTLINER BAIC MAN 30% TATA MOTORS 20% FAW IVECO

FORD VOLKSWAGEN 10% DONGFENG FORD 0% China US India Brazil EU

Delgado, O., & Li, H. (2017). Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China. The International 5 Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech-potential GVW and vehicle type composition for different HDV markets (2014)

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40% Percent of sales 30% 30%

20% 20% Percent of heavy-duty vehicle sales 10% 10% 0% 0% China EU US India China EU US India

> 15 tonnes 12 to 15 tonnes 9 to 12 tonnes Tractor trucks Rigid trucks Buses and vans 6 to 9 tonnes < 6 tonnes

Sharpe, B. (2015). Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India. International Council on Clean Transportation. 6 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Engine displacement distribution for HDVs in four large markets (2014)

100% China EU US India 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

Percent of sales 30% 20% 10% 0% <9 9to 11 11 to 13 13 to 15 > 15 Engine size (liters)

Sharpe, B. (2015). Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India. International Council on Clean Transportation. 7 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Examples of market Complete vehicles segmentation

8 Objectives of the market segmentation

§ Separate vehicles and components in groups 100% with similar usage and fuel consumption. 9% Other 21% 11% Bus § Enable the use of specific duty cycles and 80% 4% CO2 emissions targets for each segment 16% 20% Rigid § Identify the vehicle segments with high fuel 60% consumption. The vehicle segment with the highest market share is not necessarily the same as the one with the highest fuel 40% consumption. 60% 59% Tractor 20%

§ Segmentation of engines and trailers is 2014 Fuel consumption fraction necessary in the case of separate policy measures addressing this components. 0% US EU

Muncrief, R., & Sharpe, B. (2015). Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union. International 9 Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/overview-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-and-co2-emissions-european-union US HDV segmentation for GHG regulation

LHD Urban Multipurpose SI (Class 2-5) Regional CI

MHD Urban Vocational vehicles Multipurpose SI (Rigid, classes 2b to 8) (Class 6-7) Regional CI

HHD Urban Multipurpose (Class 8) Regional

Class 7, High roof Mid roof day cab Low roof

Class 8, High roof Mid roof day cab Low roof

Class 8, High roof Class 7 and Mid roof Class 8 tractors sleeper cab Low roof

10 Heavy haul Source: https://jalopnik.com/truck-sizes-classification-explained-from-tacomas-to-1613958192 EU HDV segmentation for CO2 certification

Gross vehicle Axle Chassis weight Vehicle Regulatory cyclesa and § Possible further sub-division of the type configuration (tonnes) group payloadsb used in VECTO Rigid >3.5 – <7.5 0 Not considered by the regulation vehicle groups under development for Rigid (or tractor) 7.5 – 10 1 RD (50%), UD (50%) N2 Rigid (or tractor) >10 – 12 2 LH (75%), RD (50%), UD (50%) setting mandatory CO2 targets. 4x2 Rigid (or tractor) >12 – 16 3 RD (50%), UD (50%) Rigid >16 4 LH (14.0t), RD (4.4t), MU (4.4t) § Possibilities: Group sub-division based VEHICLE SPECIFICATION LF 18 TONNES Tractor >16 5 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t) on engine power, or/and cabin type (day Rigid 7.5 – 16 6 Not considered by the regulation 4x4 Rigid >16 7 Not considered by the regulation or sleeper). Tractor >16 8 Not considered by the regulation Rigid all weights 9 LH (19.3t), RD (7.1t), MU (7.1t) 6x2 Tractor all weights 10 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t) N3 Rigid all weights 11 LH (19.3t), RD (7.1t), MU (7.1t), C(7.1t) 6x4 Tractor all weights 12 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t), C (12.9t) Rigid all weights 13 Not considered by the regulation 6x6 Tractor all weights 14 Not considered by the regulation Cab Extended Day Cab Engine PX-7 (6.7 litres) Euro 6 8x2 Rigid all weights 15 Not considered by the regulation Max. power 194 kW / 264 hp (2.000 - 2.300 rpm) Max. torque 1.000 Nm (1.000 - 1.700 rpm) 8x4 Rigid all weights 16 C (7.1t) Gearbox 12AS1210 - 12 speed AS-Tronic, 10.37 - 0.81 Rear axle ratio 3.73 : 1.00 8x6 8x8 Rigid all weights 17 Not considered by the regulation Wheelbase 6.60 m Front axle 152N - 7.5 tonnes, parabolic leaf suspension New vehicles belonging togroups 4, 5, 9, and 10 will be certified from January 1, 2019. Rear axle SR1132 - 11.5 tonnes, 4 bellow air suspension Vehicle registrations belonging togroups 4, 5, 9, and 10 will be certified from July 1, 2019 Tyre size 315/70R22.5 (front and rear axle) Suspension cab Mechanical Fuel tank 430 litres left and right Vehicle registrations belonging to groups 1, 2, and 3 must be certified from January 1, 2020. Ad Blue tank 50 litres Body ECF box-body Vehicle registrations belonging to groups 11, 12, and 16, must be certified from July 1, 2020. Vehicle options Truck Navigation Radio, Truckphone, LED rear lights, Airbag, Cornering lights Technical GVM 18 tonnes a.Long-Haul (LH), Regional Delivery (RD), Urban Delivery (UD), Municipal Utility (MU), Construction (C). Rigid trucks in the long haul cycle use an additional trailer. b. Number in brackets is the payload intonnes. Forvehicle groups 1,2, and 3, the payload is dependent on the GVW; the percentage number in brackets refers the approximate fraction of the maximum payload that is used Rodríguez, F. (2018). Certification of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of on-road in thevehicle simulation. heavy-duty vehicles in the European Union (Policy update). International Council on Clean11 Transportation. https://www.theicct.org/publications/certification-co2-emissions-and-fuel- consumption-road-heavy-duty-vehicles-european China HDV segmentation for CO2 standards

50%

40%

Alternative Fuel 30%

HDV (Not regulated) 2-Axle GVW Limit 3-Axle GVW Limit 4-Axle GVW Limit

Specialized 10.8% 20% Vocational Market Share (Not regulated) 10% 4.6% Specialized City Bus Delivery 0% 4.7% 27.6% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 GVW (tonnes) Coach GCW Limit Regulatory Bin Market Share 6.0% 50%

Truck 40% 7.4% 30%

Tractor 20.3% 20% Dump Truck Market Share 18.7% 10%

0% 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 GCW (tonnes) Delgado, O., & Li, H. (2017). Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China. The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech-potential India and Japan’s HDV segmentation for fuel consumption standards Rigid freight trucks:

Tractor trucks:

Garg, M., & Sharpe, B. (2017). Fuel consumption standards for heavy-duty Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2017). vehicles in India. The International Council on Clean Transportation. http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/jidosha10_hh_000190.html www.theicct.org/publications/fuel-consumption-stds-hdvs-india-update-201712 Summary: Segmentation comparison by GVW

35 2) 30

15 3) 4) 10

5 1)

0 Gross Vehicle Weight (metric tons)(metric Weight Vehicle Gross

EU Regional… Japan Tractor… China Tractor… EU Long Haul China Dumpers U.S. Vocational… EU Construction U.S. Tractor Trucks EU Urban Delivery Japan Non-Tractors China Simple Trucks EU Municipal Utility

1) Further divided into four subsegments by maximum payload, 2) Further divided into six subsegments by roof 3) 4) height and cab type, Further divided into three subsegments by roof height, Each EU segment further 14 divided into two to seven subsegments by axle, chassis, and body configuration and weight Examples of market Engines segmentation

15 Improvements in engine efficiency translate directly into vehicle efficiency improvements

EPA 2018 engine map g

Engine fuel consumption reduction over the WHTC and WHSC (average value) n i

EPA 2027 engine map v i t Tractor trailer, 4x2, 19.3 tonne payload r n 200 6% d h e Rigid truck, 6x2, 7.1 tonne payload r e -4.8% m W v e k o v / 195 -4.7% 5% o g n r / o p i

190 t

n 4% m i o i e t duc n p i 185 3% e r g m n u n s e o i n 180 2% t m p co o r l m f e 175 1% u s e u l n F c y

170 0% co c l

WHTC WHSC Urban Urban Suburban Regional Long Haul Interurban Heavy Construction e Delivery Urban u Delivery F g n WVU 2017 engine map Engine fuel consumption reduction over the WHTC and WHSC (average value) i v i t r

WVU 2027 engine map n Tractor trailer, 4x2, 19.3 tonne payload d e

220 18% r h e Rigid truck, 6x2, 7.1 tonne payload m v W e o k v

/ 210 15% o n r g o p i /

-12.3% t m

200 i

n 12% o e

i -12.2% duc t n i e p r 190 9% g m n n u e o s i t

n 180

6% m p o co r m f l u e s 170 3% e l u n c F y co c

160 0% l WHTC WHSC e Urban Urban Suburban Regional Long Haul Interurban Heavy Construction u

Delivery Delivery Urban F Muncrief, R., & Rodríguez, F. (2017). A roadmap for heavy-duty engine CO2 standards within the European Union framework. The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/roadmap-heavy-duty-engine- 16 co2-standards-within-european-union-framework Engine segmentation in the US for engine GHG standards

§ HD engines in the US are segmented based on the type – tractor or non-tractor – and “primary intended service class” of the vehicle in which the engine will be used. § For diesel engines, “the primary intended service classes” are light heavy-duty (LHD), medium heavy-duty (MHD), and heavy heavy-duty (HHD). § The U.S. standard considers that tractor engines are more likely to be driven on the highway in a steady state and that non-tractors are more likely to be driven in

transient operation. Therefore, the tractor engines are required to meet a CO2 limit over a steady-state engine cycle.

Vehicle Type for GVW (tonnes) engine segmentation 11.8 to 15 Tractor 15+ Muncrief, R., & Rodríguez, F. (2017). A roadmap for 3.9 to 8.8 heavy-duty engine CO2 standards within the European Union framework. The International Council on Clean Non-tractor 8.8 to 15 Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/roadmap- heavy-duty-engine-co2-standards-within-european- 15+ union-framework Alternatives for HD engine segmentation

Correlation between engine power and GVW for non-tractor truck sales in the EU in 2016

600

500

400

300

200 Engine Power / kW

100 Linear ﬁt 90% conﬁdence interval 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 GVW / tonnes Sharpe, B. (2015). Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India. International Council on Clean Transportation. Muncrief, R., & Rodríguez, F. (2017). A roadmap for heavy-duty engine www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india CO2 standards within the European Union framework. The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/roadmap- heavy-duty-engine-co2-standards-within-european-union-framework 18 Market dynamics present a challenge for using engine power or displacement for engine segmentation Examples of market Trailers segmentation

20 Trailers have a large technology potential to reduce CO2 emissions from HDVs. Trailer manufacturers are usually local players.

Trailer manufacturers in the EU and the United States

Tirsan Humbaur Remaining manufacturers

Europe Schmitz Cargobull Krone

Wielton Next 5 largest manufacturers

Vanguard National, Remaining CIMC Intermodal manufacturers

Hyundai Great North Wabash Utility America Translead Dane

Next 5 largest manufacturers

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Market share

Sharpe, B. (2018). Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Europe (Publication pending). The 21 International Council on Clean Transportation. US trailer segmentation for Phase 2 GHG standards

US trailer market distribution between 2003 and 2011

US trailer segmentation 6% 2% 2% 3% Dry box van 3% Refrigerated box va 47% 7% Flatbed Container chassis Grain Dump 9% Tanker Lowbed Other

21%

Sharpe, B., Lutsey, N., Delgado, O., & Muncrief, R. (2016). United States efficiency and greenhouse gas emission regulations for model year 2018-2027 heavy-duty vehicles, engines, and trailers. International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/US-phase2-HDV-efficiency-GHG-regulations-FRM

Sharpe, B. (2016). Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Canada. International Council on Clean 22 Transportation. www.theicct.org/market-analysis-heavy-duty-commercial-trailers-canada The EU has a similar trailer distribution as the US, and a similar market segmentation is possible

Trailer type distribution in the EU

2016

2015 Krone 2014 Dry vans Refrigerated Dry van Tankers 2013 Curtain Tipper Container chassis Non-box trailers 2012 32% Other Curtain 2011

2010 Box trailers Refrigerated 68% 2009

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Market share

Sharpe, B. (2018). Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Europe (Publication pending). The 23 International Council on Clean Transportation. Duty cycles Vehicle

24 The duty cycles should represent real on-road HDV operation

§ The definition of representative duty cycles for HDVs is challenging due to the variety of applications.

§ The main objective is of the duty cycle design is to give realistic fuel consumption values for all vehicle variants. The definition of the duty cycles is dependent on, among others: vehicle fleet technical specifications, road type (urban, regional, highway), speed limits, topography, traffic conditions, etc.

§ Duty cycles can be categorized in two main categories: Actual speed vs time based and target speed vs. distance

25 Time-based: World Harmonized Vehicle Cycle (WHVC) 1/2

§ The WHVC was developed under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations (WP.29).

§ The WHVC is based on data from trucking operations in a number of countries (Australia, EU, Japan and the US) and is designed to cover a wide range of HDV driving situations.

§ The WHVC consists of three segments: an urban segment with transient stop-and-go driving, a rural segment that incorporates higher speeds, and a final motorway segment with steady state cruise driving.

Steven, H. (2001). Development of a World-wide Harmonised Heavy-duty Engine Emissions Test Cycle (No. TRANS/WP29/GRPE/2001/2). ECE-GRPE WHDC Working Group. 26 https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2001/wp29grpe/TRANS-WP29-GRPE-42-inf02.pdf Time-based: World Harmonized Vehicle Cycle (WHVC) 2/2

§ The speed, and acceleration 90 trace is fully defined by the cycle. Urban part: Rural part: 80 900 seconds 481 seconds 5.3 km 5.8 km v = 21.3 km/h v = 43.5 km/h § Some vehicles will have an easy 70 avg avg time following the speed trace, while some others won’t be able 60 to follow it. 50 40

§ The set average speeds might / km/h Speed 30 not be representative of the local 20 conditions. Highway part: 419 seconds 10 8.9 km vavg = 76.6 km/h § Some countries have modified 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 the WHVC to reflect the local 0 0 0 00 20 4 600 8 100 120 14 1600 18 lower engine power-to-vehicle Time / s weight ratios.

27 WHVC modifications for China and Korea

100

80 WHVC K-WHVC Urban Rural Motorway Seo, J., Park, J., Oh, Y., & Park, S. (2016). Estimation of Total 60 Transport CO2 Emissions Generated by Medium- and Heavy- Duty Vehicles (MHDVs) in a Sector of Korea. Energies, 9(8), 638. 40 https://doi.org/10.3390/en9080638

20 Velocity (km/h)

0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Time (s)

URBAN RURAL MOTORWAY 100 WHVC C-WTVC 90 80 70 Delgado, O., & Li, H. (2017). Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China. The 60 International Council on Clean Transportation. 50 www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel- 40 efficiency-tech-potential 30

Target speed (km/h) 20 10 0 Time (s) 28 Example: Average speeds are lower in India than other major markets

ICCT’s version of a modified WHVC for fuel Regulatory cycles Real-world data consumption research in India 90 120 Urban part: Rural part: 80 900 seconds 481 seconds vavg = 21.3 km/h vavg = 37.1 km/h 100 70

60 80 50 60 40

Speed / km/h Speed 30

40 20 Highway part: 10 419 seconds 20 vavg = 52.8 km/h Average speed (km/hour) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 20 4 600 8 100 120 14 1600 18 Time / s

EU long haul US long haul Delhi-Mumbai Delhi-Kolkata Delhi-Chennai Average, India* Delhi-Bangalore Mumbai-ChennaiMumbai-Kolkata China tractorChina 9-27ttractor > 27t EU regional deliveryUS regional delivery

* Average speed from surveys of 28 major trucking routes in India Source: TCI-IIMC (2016) Operational efficiency of freight transportation by road in India. 3rd edition. 29 Distance based, target speed cycles in the EU

§ Duty cycle is defined as routes. That is, road grade profiles and a desired target speed as a function of distance. § The actual driven speed profile is a function of the vehicle technical specifications and the driver model.

Ralf Krukenberg (2017). ACEA’s HDV White book extract with updates 2017 and amendments. Sao Paulo, Sept 30 5th, 2017. Pilot ACEA TF1 90 Urban Delivery cycle 7 5 /h) 3 m

60 (%) k

( 1 e d

d -1 a e 30 r

e -3 G p -5 S EU’s Regional0 Delivery and Long Haul cycles -7 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 1 1 2 2 2 Distance (km) 90 Regional Delivery cycle 7 5 /h) 3 m

60 (%) k

( 1 e d

d -1 a e 30 r

e -3 G p -5 S 0 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Distance (km) 90 Long Haul cycle 7 5 /h) 3 m

60 (%) k

( 1 e d

d -1 a e 30 r

e -3 G p -5 S 0 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Distance (km) 90 Municipal Utility cycle 7 Rodriguez, F. (2018). Fuel consumption simulation of HDVs in the EU: Comparisons and limitations5 (White /h) Paper). The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/fuel-consumption3 - 31 m

60 (%)

k simulation-hdvs-eu-comparisons-and-limitations

( 1 e d

d -1 a e 30 r

e -3 G p -5 S 0 -7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Distance (km) 90 Construction cycle 7 5 /h) 3 m

60 (%) k

( 1 e d

d -1 a e 30 r

e -3 G p -5 S 0 -7 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Distance (km) ACEA’s validation for the Long Haul cycle for the EU

Ralf Krukenberg (2017). ACEA’s HDV White book extract with updates 2017 and amendments. Sao Paulo, Sept 32 5th, 2017. Pilot ACEA TF1 The GEM Phase 2 cycles are a combination of distance and time based cycles.

90 ARB Transient cycle h) /

m 60 k ( d

e 30 e p S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 40 5 6 7 Time(s)

120 55 mph and 65 mph cycles 7

h) 5 / 3 m (%) k

( 1 90 e d

d -1 a e r

e -3 G p -5 S 60 -7 0 5 0 5 0 1 1 2 Distance (km)

U.S. EPA, & U.S. DOT. (2016). Final Rule: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles–Phase 2 (Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 206). 33 https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2016-10-25/pdf/2016-21203.pdf ICCT has developed a work-flow for developing duty cycles based on in-use vehicle data Raw Data

Duty Cycle Development: 6 steps: Pre-processing 1. Generates microtrips. 2. Generates N candidate cycles by adding randomly selected microtrips Database until minimum cycle time is achieved. 3. Calculates candidate cycles’ metrics.

4. Calculates database metrics. Duty Cycle 5. Compares candidates with in-use Development database. 6. Selects and save the 10 candidate cycles that best match the database. Representative Duty Cycle Duty cycles Engine cycles

35 The duty-cycles for engine CO2 certification can be derived directly from those developed for pollutant emission testing

World Harmonized Transient Cycle (WHTC) 3000 WHTC on a 12.8 liter Euro VI engine

Buble size and color represent the fuel consumption 100 share of that area in the engine map 80 2500 60 40 20 2000

Torque / % 0 -20 100 1500 80

60 Torque / Nm 40 1000

20 Speed / % 0 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 20 4 60 8 100 1200 14 1600 18 Time / s 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Engine speed / rpm 36 Adaptations of the existing cycles can be necessary

§ Tractor engines in the US have limits over the SET steady-state cycle. For Phase 2, the SET weighting were revisited to reflect better low engine speed highway operation.

3000 SET Phase 1 3000 SET Phase 2

Buble size and color represent the fuel consumption Buble size and color represent the fuel consumption share of that area in the engine map share of that area in the engine map 2500 Higher weighting 2500 of lower engine speeds to reflect 2000 2000 better long haul application 1500 1500 Torque Torque / Nm Torque Torque / Nm

1000 1000

500 500

0 0 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Engine speed / rpm Engine speed / rpm 37 EU and US duty cycles can be correlated for CO2 emissions

The weighting used for the SET corresponds to the US Phase 2 regulation

Comparison of 26 different engine maps over a simulated environment were used to estimate the correlation coefficients between the stationary WHSC and SET cycles, as well as between the transient cycles WHTC and FTP.

Muncrief, R., & Rodríguez, F. (2017). A roadmap for heavy-duty engine CO2 standards within the European Union framework. The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/roadmap-heavy-duty-engine-co2-standards- within-european-union-framework Takeaway messages

§ The market segmentation and definition of duty cycles are country specific exercises. However, experiences and concepts applied in other regions can be adapted.

§ There is no perfect segmentation, nor duty cycle. A balance between complexity and representativeness is necessary.

§ The market segmentation divides the vehicle fleet into different segments with similar application and fuel consumption. Typical differentiators are vehicle weight, chassis configuration, and axle configuration. Further segmentation can be achieved by cabin type, engine power, intended vehicle use, among others.

§ The development of duty cycles for fuel consumption certification must be a data- driven process. A good characterization of the vehicle fleet is necessary. Similarly, the topography and typical traffic conditions of the road network are also required. 39 Questions? Contact the HDV team at the ICCT