Market segmentation and duty cycles Dr. Felipe Rodríguez 19th March 2018 G20 Transport Task Group: Deep Dive to Support Heavy-Duty Vehicle Efficiency Labeling and Standards Meeting #4 Introduction § Vehicle simulation and component certification procedures can be easily adapted to the other regions. § On the other hand, the definition of the heavy-duty vehicle segments and duty cycles are market-specific. § This presentation aims at providing examples from different regions, and the solutions adopted for addressing the variety of heavy-duty vehicle types and uses. 2 ICCT market studies for HDVs § European vehicle market statistics, 2017/2018 https://www.theicct.org/publications/european-vehicle-market-statistics-20172018 § Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China https://www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech- potential § Market Penetration of Fuel Efficiency Technologies for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in the EU, US and China http://www.theicct.org/market-penetration-HDV-fuel-efficiency-technologies § Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Canada http://www.theicct.org/market-analysis-heavy-duty-commercial-trailers-canada § Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union http://www.theicct.org/overview-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-and-co2-emissions- european-union § Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India 3 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Key differences between A comparison of China, India, the major markets the U.S. and the EU. 4 The market consolidation differs significantly between regions (2016) 100% OTHERS OTHERS OTHERS OTHERS MAHINDRA OTHERS VOLVO 90% ISUZU SML ISUZU GMC DAIMLER BENZ MACK IVECO VOLVO 80% 21-50 PETERBILT VECV SCANIA PACCAR KENWORTH 70% 11-20 SAIC CHEVROLET ASHOK XIAMEN KLM LEYLAND MERCEDES VOLVO 60% CIMC DODGE BENZ CNHTC YUTONG 50% INTERNATIONAL JAC SHAANXI AUTO Market Share 40% DAIMLER FREIGHTLINER BAIC MAN 30% TATA MOTORS 20% FAW IVECO FORD VOLKSWAGEN 10% DONGFENG FORD 0% China US India Brazil EU Delgado, O., & Li, H. (2017). Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China. The International 5 Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech-potential GVW and vehicle type composition for different HDV markets (2014) 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% Percent of sales 30% 30% 20% 20% Percent of heavy-duty vehicle sales 10% 10% 0% 0% China EU US India China EU US India > 15 tonnes 12 to 15 tonnes 9 to 12 tonnes Tractor trucks Rigid trucks Buses and vans 6 to 9 tonnes < 6 tonnes Sharpe, B. (2015). Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India. International Council on Clean Transportation. 6 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Engine displacement distribution for HDVs in four large markets (2014) 100% China EU US India 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Percent of sales 30% 20% 10% 0% <9 9to 11 11 to 13 13 to 15 > 15 Engine size (liters) Sharpe, B. (2015). Market analysis of heavy-duty vehicles in India. International Council on Clean Transportation. 7 https://www.theicct.org/publications/market-analysis-heavy-duty-vehicles-india Examples of market Complete vehicles segmentation 8 Objectives of the market segmentation § Separate vehicles and components in groups 100% with similar usage and fuel consumption. 9% Other 21% 11% Bus § Enable the use of specific duty cycles and 80% 4% CO2 emissions targets for each segment 16% 20% Rigid § Identify the vehicle segments with high fuel 60% consumption. The vehicle segment with the highest market share is not necessarily the same as the one with the highest fuel 40% consumption. 60% 59% Tractor 20% § Segmentation of engines and trailers is 2014 Fuel consumption fraction necessary in the case of separate policy measures addressing this components. 0% US EU Muncrief, R., & Sharpe, B. (2015). Overview of the heavy-duty vehicle market and CO2 emissions in the European Union. International 9 Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/overview-heavy-duty-vehicle-market-and-co2-emissions-european-union US HDV segmentation for GHG regulation LHD Urban Multipurpose SI (Class 2-5) Regional CI MHD Urban Vocational vehicles Multipurpose SI (Rigid, classes 2b to 8) (Class 6-7) Regional CI HHD Urban Multipurpose (Class 8) Regional Class 7, High roof Mid roof day cab Low roof Class 8, High roof Mid roof day cab Low roof Class 8, High roof Class 7 and Mid roof Class 8 tractors sleeper cab Low roof 10 Heavy haul Source: https://jalopnik.com/truck-sizes-classification-explained-from-tacomas-to-1613958192 EU HDV segmentation for CO2 certification Gross vehicle Axle Chassis weight Vehicle Regulatory cyclesa and § Possible further sub-division of the type configuration (tonnes) group payloadsb used in VECTO Rigid >3.5 – <7.5 0 Not considered by the regulation vehicle groups under development for Rigid (or tractor) 7.5 – 10 1 RD (50%), UD (50%) N2 Rigid (or tractor) >10 – 12 2 LH (75%), RD (50%), UD (50%) setting mandatory CO2 targets. 4x2 Rigid (or tractor) >12 – 16 3 RD (50%), UD (50%) Rigid >16 4 LH (14.0t), RD (4.4t), MU (4.4t) § Possibilities: Group sub-division based VEHICLE SPECIFICATION LF 18 TONNES Tractor >16 5 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t) on engine power, or/and cabin type (day Rigid 7.5 – 16 6 Not considered by the regulation 4x4 Rigid >16 7 Not considered by the regulation or sleeper). Tractor >16 8 Not considered by the regulation Rigid all weights 9 LH (19.3t), RD (7.1t), MU (7.1t) 6x2 Tractor all weights 10 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t) N3 Rigid all weights 11 LH (19.3t), RD (7.1t), MU (7.1t), C(7.1t) 6x4 Tractor all weights 12 LH (19.3t), RD (12.9t), C (12.9t) Rigid all weights 13 Not considered by the regulation 6x6 Tractor all weights 14 Not considered by the regulation Cab Extended Day Cab Engine PX-7 (6.7 litres) Euro 6 8x2 Rigid all weights 15 Not considered by the regulation Max. power 194 kW / 264 hp (2.000 - 2.300 rpm) Max. torque 1.000 Nm (1.000 - 1.700 rpm) 8x4 Rigid all weights 16 C (7.1t) Gearbox 12AS1210 - 12 speed AS-Tronic, 10.37 - 0.81 Rear axle ratio 3.73 : 1.00 8x6 8x8 Rigid all weights 17 Not considered by the regulation Wheelbase 6.60 m Front axle 152N - 7.5 tonnes, parabolic leaf suspension New vehicles belonging togroups 4, 5, 9, and 10 will be certified from January 1, 2019. Rear axle SR1132 - 11.5 tonnes, 4 bellow air suspension Vehicle registrations belonging togroups 4, 5, 9, and 10 will be certified from July 1, 2019 Tyre size 315/70R22.5 (front and rear axle) Suspension cab Mechanical Fuel tank 430 litres left and right Vehicle registrations belonging to groups 1, 2, and 3 must be certified from January 1, 2020. Ad Blue tank 50 litres Body ECF box-body Vehicle registrations belonging to groups 11, 12, and 16, must be certified from July 1, 2020. Vehicle options Truck Navigation Radio, Truckphone, LED rear lights, Airbag, Cornering lights Technical GVM 18 tonnes a.Long-Haul (LH), Regional Delivery (RD), Urban Delivery (UD), Municipal Utility (MU), Construction (C). Rigid trucks in the long haul cycle use an additional trailer. b. Number in brackets is the payload intonnes. Forvehicle groups 1,2, and 3, the payload is dependent on the GVW; the percentage number in brackets refers the approximate fraction of the maximum payload that is used Rodríguez, F. (2018). Certification of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of on-road in thevehicle simulation. heavy-duty vehicles in the European Union (Policy update). International Council on Clean11 Transportation. https://www.theicct.org/publications/certification-co2-emissions-and-fuel- consumption-road-heavy-duty-vehicles-european China HDV segmentation for CO2 standards 50% 40% Alternative Fuel 30% HDV (Not regulated) 2-Axle GVW Limit 3-Axle GVW Limit 4-Axle GVW Limit Specialized 10.8% 20% Vocational Market Share (Not regulated) 10% 4.6% Specialized City Bus Delivery 0% 4.7% 27.6% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 GVW (tonnes) Coach GCW Limit Regulatory Bin Market Share 6.0% 50% Truck 40% 7.4% 30% Tractor 20.3% 20% Dump Truck Market Share 18.7% 10% 0% 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 GCW (tonnes) Delgado, O., & Li, H. (2017). Market analysis and fuel efficiency technology potential of heavy-duty vehicles in China. The International Council on Clean Transportation. www.theicct.org/publications/HDV-china-mkt-analysis-and-fuel-efficiency-tech-potential India and Japan’s HDV segmentation for fuel consumption standards Rigid freight trucks: Tractor trucks: Garg, M., & Sharpe, B. (2017). Fuel consumption standards for heavy-duty Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2017). vehicles in India. The International Council on Clean Transportation. http://www.mlit.go.jp/report/press/jidosha10_hh_000190.html www.theicct.org/publications/fuel-consumption-stds-hdvs-india-update-201712 Summary: Segmentation comparison by GVW 50 45 40 35 2) 30 25 20 15 3) 4) 10 5 1) 0 Gross Vehicle Weight (metric tons)(metric Weight Vehicle Gross EU Regional… Japan Tractor… China Tractor… EU Long Haul China Dumpers U.S. Vocational… EU Construction U.S. Tractor Trucks EU Urban Delivery Japan Non-Tractors China Simple Trucks EU Municipal Utility 1) Further divided into four subsegments by maximum payload, 2) Further divided into six subsegments by roof 3) 4) height and cab type, Further divided into three subsegments by roof height, Each EU segment further 14 divided into two to seven subsegments by axle,