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Worst Case Credible Nuclear Transportation Accidents: Analysis for Urban and Rural Nevada

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Worst Case Credible Nuclear Transportation Accidents: Analysis for Urban and Rural Nevada Worst Case Credible Nuclear Transportation Accidents: Analysis for Urban and Rural Nevada Matthew Lamb and Marvin Resnikoff, Ph.D. Radioactive Waste Management Associates And Richard Moore, P.E. August 2001 Radioactive Waste Management Associates 526 W. 26th Street #517 New York, NY 10001 Table of Contents Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................i Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 1. Accident Locations and Potential Radionuclide Releases...................................................................4 Accident Locations .................................................................................................................................4 Release Estimates....................................................................................................................................5 Postulated Release Fractions and Inventory............................................................................................9 Severity of the Accidents Being Considered in this Analysis...............................................................11 2. Downwind Radioactive Particulate Concentrations..........................................................................13 3. Las Vegas Specific Accident.............................................................................................................15 Individual Dose and Surface Contamination Estimates ........................................................................15 Population Dose Estimates for Las Vegas Accidents............................................................................20 Contamination Inside Hotels: A Hypothetical Example .......................................................................25 Las Vegas Emergency Response and Evacuation.................................................................................27 Las Vegas Decontamination .................................................................................................................40 Other Factors Affecting Cleanup Cost Estimates..................................................................................47 4. Rural Truck Accident: West Wendover, Nevada................................................................................49 General Characteristics of West Wendover, Nevada ............................................................................49 Individual Dose and Surface Contamination Estimates ........................................................................49 Population Density Estimate.................................................................................................................52 Contamination Inside Hotels: A Hypothetical Example .......................................................................56 5. Rural Rail Accident: Carlin, Nevada....................................................................................................58 General Characteristics of the Carlin Tunnel Region............................................................................58 Individual Dose and Surface Contamination Estimates ........................................................................59 Population Density Estimate.................................................................................................................61 Population Dose Estimate .....................................................................................................................61 Possible Contamination of the Humboldt River....................................................................................63 Conclusions...............................................................................................................................................67 References.................................................................................................................................................71 Appendices A. Discussion of Severe Accident Release Estimates A-1 B. Category 6 Accident Contamination Charts B-1 C. Alternative Population Density Calculation C-1 D. Detailed Population Dose Calculations D-1 E. Estimation of Indoor Air Concentration E-1 Nevada Spent Fuel Transportation Severe Accident Analysis Page i Executive Summary If the proposed Yucca Mountain waste repository opens, a large number of irradiated fuel and high-level waste shipments will converge in Nevada. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), there could be between 23,000 and 96,000 shipments to Yucca Mountain over four decades1. Depending on a range of factors, such as the eventual transportation mode and any safety precautions that may be required, hundreds of accidents are expected nationwide. Some of these accidents could result in release of radioactive materials. As prior reports prepared by RWMA for the State of Nevada show2, DOE has systematically underestimated the potential human health impacts from severe accidents and completely ignored their potential economic impacts. The cost of cleanup, evacuation and business loss resulting from a severe accident in a generic urban area can range from several billion to several hundred billion dollars. An accident in a rural area will have a different set of consequences, but has the potential to be as devastating as an accident in a more populated area. Except for population density, the previous analyses were not location-specific. In contrast, this study estimates site-specific accident consequences for select urban and rural locations in the State of Nevada. These were chosen based on the locations of proposed and likely truck and rail transportation corridors en route to the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. For the urban scenarios, representative truck and rail locations were chosen in Las Vegas, a potential crossroads for fuel traveling to the proposed facility. The rural truck accident location was chosen to be near the Utah-Nevada border along I-80, in the town of West Wendover. The chosen rural rail location is at the Carlin Tunnel along the Union Pacific and Southern Pacific railroads in western Elko County. This study estimated the nature and amount of radioactivity that could be released from a spent fuel shipping cask in the event of a serious accident, based on industry literature. From these release estimates, we estimated the extent of contamination and the consequences to individuals and collective populations associated with this contamination. Based on extensive discussions with local emergency personnel, this report also discusses the likely response by emergency personnel to an accident of this nature. Finally, the report lays out the decontamination technologies available and comments on their cost and effectiveness. Each cask that would be shipped to Yucca Mountain contains an enormous inventory of radioactive material. Casks are not designed to withstand all credible highway and rail accidents. Even a small release in terms of the fraction of the entire inventory that is released, such as those considered in this report, can lead to major health and economic consequences. Our calculations assumed average, site-specific meteorological conditions and wind speeds. We used standard computer software, such as HOTSPOT and RISKIND, to model downwind air and surface particulate concentrations. We further assumed a severe impact would 1 U.S. Department of Energy, 1999. Draft Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada. (DOE/EIS-0250D). pp. J-10. 2 Lamb, M and M Resnikoff, “Consequence Assessment of Severe Nuclear Transportation Accident in an Urban Environment,” Radioactive Waste Management Associates, 5 July 2000 Radioactive Waste Management Associates Nevada Spent Fuel Transportation Severe Accident Analysis Page ii lead to a ground level puff release of radioactive particulates. Our release estimates did not consider the accident scenario involving “fire-only” conditions, which would result in a more protracted release of material and a higher effective release height. Near a transportation accident, this report estimates acute radiation doses due to inhalation of a passing radioactive cloud to be in the hundreds of rems close to the release location. This is a thousand times what a person receives from background radiation in a year. Thousands of people are likely to be in the downwind path. For example, this study estimated that over 138,000 persons would be affected by a severe rail accident releasing radioactive material in Las Vegas. Persons indoors would also be exposed. If ventilation systems were not shut off, radioactive particulates would settle within hotels and other buildings, contaminating rugs, furniture, beds, and causing a radiation dose to those inside. Discussions with emergency personnel in Las Vegas and Clark County clearly indicate the accident would overwhelm local response capabilities. Before local emergency responders could accurately assess the problem, the radioactive plume would have already contaminated an extensive area. Radioactive particulates settling on roads and highways are likely to be spread by traffic, possibly contaminating distant locations and extending the area of contamination past that assumed in this study. This may result in the contamination
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