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CRISISVOL:14 | ISSUE:3 | JUNE 2019 RESPONSEWWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL

JUNE 2019 factors | Stratcom and security | Psycholinguistic proﬁ ling | Supply chains | Climate CRISIS RESPONSE JOURNAL

CRISISVOL:14 | ISSUE:1 | DECEMBER 2018 RESPONSEWWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL

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Editor in Chief News ...... 4 Radicalisation detection ...... 34 Emily Hough Comment ...... 8 The sooner radicalisation is identifi ed, [email protected] Weaponising strategic communication ....11 the easier it is to eradicate and the better Editorial Assistant Sometimes actions speak louder than for society, says Olivier Cauberghs words, according to Ørjan Karlsson Claire Sanders Countering violent extremism ...... 36 [email protected] Natural hazards Emily Hough interviews Nicolas Hénin, who Business Development Director Climate: More than a storm in a teacup ....12 spent ten months as a hostage in Syria, to gain Kirsty McKinlay-Stewart Emily Hough speaks to Alice Hill, former Special an insight into the minds of foreign fi ghters Assistant to President Barack Obama and Senior [email protected] Director for Resilience, US National Security Council Community & public Global Operations Director Empowering laypeople ...... 40 David Stewart Climate change and education...... 16 Rob Fagan contends that the average [email protected] What is the role of higher education institutes citizen or layperson has lost their impetus in climate change? CRJ Key Network Partner to act in a crisis, but this is changing, thanks Design & Production Emma-Jane Beattie investigates to national training programmes Chris Pettican [email protected] Looking on the bright side ...... 18 Social media for emergency risk ...... 42 Speaking to Rohini Swaminathan, Emily Hough Monika Al-Mufti Nadig and Joanne Maddams News and Blog research discovers that amid all the pessimism, sometimes look at how communicating disaster risk Lina Kolesnikova we need to put everything into perspective reduction by making it into a game that anyone [email protected] can take part in, share and talk about, bridges Web Support Governance and informal settlements ...... 22 online social media and offline reality It is estimated that around 70 per cent of today’s Neil Moultrie urban growth occurs without formal planning, turning Evacuating disabled children...... 44 informality into the most common, and risky, form of What needs to be taken into account when urbanisation on the planet, says Vicente Sandoval planning large-scale evacuations for children Subscriptions with disabilities? Jay Levinson looks at Crisis Response Journal is published quarterly; it is Preparing for volcanic eruption ...... 24 how Israel is addressing the challenge Dóra Hjálmarsdóttir describes a large emergency available by subscription in hard copy, digital and online exercise recently undertaken in Iceland Contingency planning for hospitals ...... 46 [email protected] What if a hospital is at the centre of a crisis, Extremism emergency or disaster and is unable to function? CRJ Published by Crisis Management Limited, Sondes Christchurch mosque tragedy ...... 28 Key Network Partner Ruth Wozencroft discusses Place Farm, Westcott Road, Dorking RH4 3EB, UK The mass murders at two mosques in New COPYRIGHT Crisis Management Limited 2019. Zealand provided lessons for intelligence Critical care on land or in the air ...... 48 Articles published may not be reproduced in any and police services, crisis managers and Several non-profi t organisations operate specialised form without prior written permission. emergency responders, says Neil Fergus air ambulances across Canada to provide critical care Printed in England by The Manson Group, UK and patient transportation, writes Casey Brunelle ISSN 1745-8633 Protecting places of worship...... 32 By their very nature, religious sites are soft A risk mitigation in crisis response ...... 52 and attractive targets for those who wish to Chris Kemp explores a generative risk www.crisis-response.com cause harm and spread fear. Lina Kolesnikova management platform using the Roskilde join the CRJ LinkedIn group explores the challenge of protecting them Festival in Denmark as an example follow us on twitter @editorialcrj

Strategic communication p11 Climate: No storm in a teacup p12

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2 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com CRISISRESPONSE contents Cover story: The Kraken of kidnap comment Cover image: Artkrieg

A resilient approach to major events ...... 56 Psychological consultants ...... 78 he CRJ team has been Major events are potentially highly volatile scenarios Andy Young describes how mental health travelling far and wide that reap accolades when carried out successfully, professionals serve with hostage negotiating teams Tthese past few months, or damage to reputations when they are not, attending events and helping according to CRJ Key Network Partner, MASS Traumatic incidents in hostile areas ...... 80 with conference input, always How best to address the psychological wellbeing of listening and learning. Human factors & leadership affected personnel? Nicola Lester and Jo Anthoine say Because this is the best Everyone is biased ...... 58 that a trauma-informed approach can be the answer way to fi nd out the trends to watch, what is Paul Martin explores the psychological keeping people awake at night and what our predispositions and cognitive biases that affect Why do we need CISM? ...... 84 readers need. And what we have learnt is all how we perceive and respond to risks to security Angela Lewis describes how CISM is a toolbox of reflected in our content – this edition covers items that can be used to support emergency services natural hazards, governance, extremism, The unexpected crisis leader ...... 62 community and public issues, human Leaders suddenly faced with responding to Corporate resilience factors and leadership, corporate resilience, a true crisis can react in a number of ways, Victims and villains ...... 87 technology and kidnap, extortion and ransom. explain Eric J McNulty and colleagues CRJ Key Network Partner Alison Burrell advises Our cover might raise a few eyebrows (we on how to avoid becoming the villain in a crisis hope that it does!) and we tussled with the What could possibly go wrong? ...... 64 concept. How best to conceptualise visually Phil Gilling looks at how to build a team Corporate security technology ...... 88 the facets of organised crime, extortion, that can make rapid, yet effective, critical CRJ Key Network Partner Tim Willis analyses kidnap and ransom – from cyber extortion to decisions during high risk situations technological advancements that tap into open source blackmail using witchcraft or hostage taking? information to track fast-moving, high-impact events All these subjects are covered from p68 Kidnap, ransom & negotiation onwards, as well as views on the multi-layered Blackmail, extortion and witchcraft ...... 68 Supply chains: Global trends ...... 90 aspects of negotiation and investigation. Andrew B Brown provides a sobering case study Globalisation, outsourcing, enhanced connectivity Ultimately, as outlined on p76, such of a crime that aimed to maximise shame and and higher reliance on suppliers mean supply crimes are human in their nature. They are reputational damage to an INGO worker chain disruptions have become more prevalent committed by humans against humans and in recent years, according to Kelsey Rose are responded to by humans. Thus, human Inside the ransom business ...... 70 understanding is vital to safe resolution Does insurance promote kidnap for ransom by R&D and this applies equally to other risks. ordering the market for hostages? Or does it just Addressing the world’s water crisis? ...... 92 As with all crises, prevention and mitigate existing risks? Anja Shortland investigates David Binns presents a solar desalinator preparedness are by far the best option. So why do we so often fail to understand and Corporate travel procedures ...... 72 Next Generation 112 ...... 94 appreciate the scale of some hazards and It’s important to have stringent travel procedures in It’s surprising that most emergency services in threats? Turn to p58 to learn more about place so that employees are aware of any risks that Europe can only be reached by traditional phone psychological predispositions that affect how occur in their destination in order to keep them safe, call. But this is changing, says Rose Michael we perceive and respond to security risks. writes CRJ Key Network Partner Giles Greenfi eld This issue also features interviews with Regulars genuinely inspirational experts; and we have A behavioural-based approach ...... 74 Event previews and diary dates...... 96 more up our collective (and rather voluminous) Psycholinguistic profi ling and behavioural analysis Frontline ...... 98 editorial sleeves. On p12 read Alice Hill’s can be extremely powerful tools when negotiating Claire Sanders interviews Nick Grono, CEO of Freedom views on climate, security, communities cases of extortion, blackmail and virtual or physical Fund, an organisation working to fi ght modern and business. Page 18 discusses how kidnapping, as Stephen Grossman explains slavery and extreme exploitation around the world we should put humanity’s progress into perspective. And on p36, I talk to Nicolas Hénin, whose ten months in captivity in Syria Empowering laypeople p40 Supply chain disruption trends p90 qualify him to provide a unique fi rst-hand insight into the issue of foreign fi ghters. Whether discussing environmental impacts on society or businesses, duty of care, or helping staff who have experienced trauma, extortion or kidnap, supply chain resilience, reputation management or leadership – the foundations are the same. Human factors, our inbuilt biases and the interconnected systems that we have created, mean that humans are not only the problem, they are the solution. Humans created our multifaceted world, Валерий Качаев | 123rf Peter Hermes Furian | 123rf and only we can solve the problems.

join the CRJ LinkedIn group follow us on twitter @editorialcrj Crisis Response Journal 14:3 | June 2019 3 A risk mitigation platform in crisis response Chris Kemp explores the possibilities of creating a generative risk management platform to aid crisis response in large scale events, using the Roskilde Festival in Denmark as an example of good practice in the event and festival industry

he sustainable mitigation of risk is di cult many disasters resulting in a loss of life and injury.” to deliver in an age of pro t versus safety. Fruin (1985, 1993) identi es a range of factors In many areas of the event industry, cutting related to the occurrence of crowd disasters. He T corners means disturbing the safety states that increased force, lack of information, equilibrium. is, in turn, heightens the inappropriately designed or inadequate space and the event space’s risk and resilience. For many years we have lack of consideration given to the management of crowd dismissed the notion that near misses provide an insight ow and density all contribute to such issues. Sime into future incidents. However, after re ecting on this (1995) and Pauls (1984) also concur with the main issue and a small number of event producers using pattern ndings of academics and practitioners in this area. recognition possibilities, it has been acknowledged that Au et al (1993) de ne overcrowding as: “ e situation some near misses were indeed precursors of subsequent where an excessively large number of people are gathered major incidents. in a de ned area. is may in turn lead to injuries Dickie (1995) states that there are four key factors or death.” ese authors go on to say: “ e point at associated with the majority of crowd disasters: Inadequate which an area is deemed to be overcrowded can be planning; an excited crowd; lack of crowd management derived in two distinctly di erent ways: (1) Objectively and control; and a aw or hazard in the facility design. in terms of the number of people in an area (crowd In the UK, we only need to go back to the disaster density), this may be in any given area within the venue at the Hillsborough football stadium in 1999 – in or within the venue as a whole; and (2) Subjectively which 96 people died and nearly 800 were injured – in terms of the viewpoint of individuals (ie crowding to realise this. Two previous semi- nals before the may be viewed as a psychological phenomenon).” Hillsborough disaster were blighted with similar crowd issues, but no steps were taken to mitigate the risk. Crowd psychology In his article on the Hillsborough Disaster for the is approach shows that crowd research is not Guardian on May 10, 2016, David Conn identi ed just focused on the dynamics, but is also linked that: “ e inquests heard evidence of problems at all to crowd psychology and social interaction. three semi- nals the FA held at Hillsborough in the Roskilde Festival in Denmark has learnt the 1980s, before it selected the ground again in 1989. In hard way, through su ering the full brunt of an 1981, there was a serious crush on the Leppings Lane accident in 2000 where nine young people were terrace where catastrophe would descend eight years crushed to death during a Pearl Jam concert. later: 38 Tottenham Hotspur supporters su ered injuries e ndings of the nine judges appointed to review serious enough to be treated in hospital or by St John the event were important, as they identi ed elements Ambulance, including broken arms, legs and ribs.” that were di cult to mitigate unless there was a known is lack of foresight and an inevitable understanding of their applications. e ne balance blinkered approach to security and safety will between blame and unforeseeable circumstances is inexorably result in future challenges where heed an important lesson to be learned from the Roskilde is not taken of previous issues, or of identifying case. One element cited in the Zeeland public the possible shortcomings of an event. prosecutor’s report just after the incident, identi es Langston, Masling and Asmar (2006) state that: that the crowd pushed forward towards the stage “Poor venue design and crowd management as a result owing to poor sound quality. However, the report of inadequate research into crowd behaviour has led to adds: “ e poor sound was probably due to the relatively

52 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com public events

Some near misses in the major events ﬁ eld were precursors of major incidents Author photo

join the CRJ LinkedIn group follow us on twitter @editorialcrj Crisis Response Journal 14:3 | June 2019 53 strong wind which blew across the audience area.” create an alternative and safer method of managing Such occurrences are di cult to mitigate, given the crowd. is was carried out by creating a more the underpinning rationales related to natural structured and managed space into which the crowd was features that are not within the gift of the most delivered, providing safer ingress, circulation and egress. experienced concert promoter to forecast. e only way to create a generative risk e only way to mitigate unknown risks is to create strategy and thus a sustainable crisis response assessment possibilities that will allow those tasked platform is to create an interdisciplinary and with creating a risk assessment and managing risk to interoperable approach to working at events. ensure they cover every eventuality, and that these vital With Roskilde Festival, this structured approach to support mechanisms are uid and dynamic. Working all areas of the event is being applied systematically, with the Roskilde team of seasoned professionals and so that each year new areas of the festival are falling new dynamic providers, it is clear to see that their safety in line with each other, providing a gradual but culture is based around a generative approach, with a sustainable and auditable process that delivers increased fallback to proactive in cases of the unknown unknowns. resilience as it is developed. is holistic approach is is unusual at events and venues, as most sta focuses on the prioritisation of safety elements and members would place themselves in a reactive to proactive transparent delivery, so that all of those involved are stance, as identi ed through our research with event continually apprised of any challenges that arise. managers. So, what has engendered this type of approach? All sta , no matter whatever their level, are e members of the Roskilde management team empowered in their role within the organisation, are very aware of the circumstances that took place which provides trust and support if an incident before, during and after the accident. However, rather occurs. is is supported by a measurement system than consign these circumstances to memory – with that not only utilises a quantitative approach, but the consequent possibility of a loss of dynamic – they tempers it this with a qualitative delivery, providing have taken proactive steps to focus on the next possible both a physical and psychosocial view of the event. issue or challenge that might occur, using the accident as a starting point in a development process. Malleable delivery envelope To highlight the generative approach to crisis e elements already in place comprise psychosocial response, the author showed a video of an incident delivery focused on creating a community of support at another outdoor event to the Roskilde Security from all stakeholders linked to the festival, which Author Manager. In the video, the circular motion of the speeds up communication and creates a malleable PROFESSOR CHRIS crowd was enhanced by the con guration and shape delivery envelope. Counter terrorism activities are KEMP, CEO of Mind Over of the front-of-stage barrier, which was similar to integrated into the event structure, both physically Matter Consultancy Ltd that used by the festival team at Roskilde. and psychosocially, to provide a holistic approach (MOM), has a long and proven is resulted in a crowd collapse at this particular event to the delivery of threat and risk activities. record of accomplishment in the and signi cant issues within the crowd took place, which Crowd safety, which is often ignored as many fi elds of event safety, risk could have resulted in fatalities and serious injuries. think that this is carried out through osmosis, is management, crowd safety, After observing the video, the Roskilde team actually a central column to the Roskilde event. emergency planning, crowd elected to remove the curved area in the barrier, even Finally, ingress and egress strategies are constantly science and leadership and though this barrier con guration, which was similar re ned and developed year on year, to ensure the management. Chris has provided to that shown in the video, had been safely utilised safest possible crowd movement related to crowd ow expert support for indoor and and managed for 17 years. us the con guration into, out of and through the festival footprint. outdoor arenas, green fi eld sites, was modi ed, turning the two pens into a single e balanced approach provided by Roskilde helps transport hubs, retail centres and pen and employing carefully thought out angles to develop the psychosocial health of the internal and almost every conceivable crowded and safety planning to mitigate the possible risks external customers while maintaining the physical space environment. He has and, hopefully, avert the need for a crisis response. necessities that create an excellent and safe event. is is developed an education To mitigate the possibility of lateral movement, the maintained through the interoperable delivery between programme for the General team created a small nipple in the centre of the barrier, the blue light and emergency services, linked to other key Entertainment Authority of the which enabled both a steadying e ect and a two-way stakeholders including paid sta , volunteers and the public, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has access-egress point rather than the former con guration, all of which contribute fully to the festival experience. undertaken reviews of two of the which had one way in and the same way out. is enables command and control and counter largest major transport hubs in e pain of the incident at the Love Parade in terrorism support to remain a central plank in the London, and has developed Germany 2010 was also still fresh at all outdoor structure, with key delivery of challenges related to bespoke exercises for many major events, as this incident was caused by a similar the sick and injured being carefully supported. ese venues and events across the system where the same ingress-egress delivery was elements underpin risk mitigation strategies and help world, including Wembley Stadium, used; this caused too many people to pass through a all stakeholders to understand both the spatial and Roskilde Festival as well as for space that was too small, creating one of the distal psychological elements linked to the temporal and Olympic coaching and medical causes of the fatality of 21 persons at the event. logistical issues underpinned by e ective planning. teams at the Olympic, Paralympic By understanding the dynamics of two incidents In conclusion, this balanced approach by the festival and Commonwealth games. The – e Love Parade in 2010, where 21 people died in management team at Roskilde demonstrates buy-in author would like to thank Henrik a crowd disaster, and the Libertines at Hyde Park in from all of the key stakeholders, as well as a wealth Nielsen and Morten Thirkildsen 2014, where a crowd crush led to eight people being of interdisciplinary knowledge, supported by team from Roskilde Festival, whose taken to hospital – then taking steps to mitigate the empowerment, where the ‘Orange Together’ motto stands constant work in making their underlying causation of the incidents both proximate proud in mitigating risk and providing a sustainable and event safer is an inspiration in the and distal, the Roskilde team worked with experts to resilient crisis response strategy. crowd management fi eld

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