OR Analytics Summit.Key

Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA

PhD interdisciplinary mathematics/psychology 28 years consulting experience (small, medium, large events) UK Cabinet Office Emergency Planning College (EPC) 15 years of teaching the principles of crowd safety for major event (1999-2014) International projects UK, USA, Australia, Netherlands, Singapore, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia Expert witness (USA and Europe) Washington (Senate House Committee testimony), New York State (personal injury), Overcrowding (licensing), Duisburg/Germany (mass fatalities), London Underground, Lava and Ignite (fatalities), JLS Birmingham, Hillsborough Inquiry (mass fatalities), Concert London (personal injury), Chicago Arena (personal Injury), Las Vegas (personal injury), Memphis (overcrowding), Scotland Concert Understanding Crowd Dynamics (personal injury) City wide event planning experience Makkah/Hajj (Saudi Arabia), Liverpool (LIMF and Matthews Street), Austin SXSW Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA (USA), Lincoln Christmas Market, 2011 UK Royal Wedding, Brighton Pride, Manchester City Victory Parades, Leicester Caribbean Carnival, Notting Hill 12th June 2018 Carnival, Kendal Torchlight Carnival, Commonwealth Games (UK) © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

!3 !4

!7 Year Location Scale of the incident Failure Elements !8 1989 Hillsborough, UK 96 dead, 400 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1990 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1426 pilgrims crushed (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1991 Orkney, South Africa 42 dead, many injured (Overcrowding/riot) Design (Capacity + Crazing) A new ethos 1994 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 266 pilgrims crushed, 98 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1996 Guatemala City 83 crushed, 180 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Forged Tickets) 1997 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 22 pilgrims crushed, 43 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1998 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 118 pilgrims crushed, 434 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1999 Kerala, India 51 killed, 150 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running) 1999 Minsk, Belarus 53 killed, 190 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running) 2001 Ellis Park, South Africa 43 dead, 200+ Injured (Over capacity - Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing) “It is not enough to aim only at the minimum 2001 Aracaju, Brazil 4 dead, including 3 children (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing) 2002 Yokohama, Japan 10 trampled, Mall crowd craze (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing) 2001 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 35 pilgrims crushed, 179 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) measure necessary for safety. That has been, at 2004 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 249 pilgrims crushed, 252 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2004 Beijing, China 37 dead, 15 injured in crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) best, the approach in the past and too often not even 2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389 injured crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2006 Manila, Philippines 74 dead, 300 injured crowd crush (Reaction) Design (Throughput) 2006 Yemen, Middle East 51 dead, 238 Injured crowd crush (Reaction) Information (Political Rally) that standard has been achieved. What is required is 2008 Himachal Pradesh, India 146 dead, 50 injured in stampede (Narrow road) Design (Throughput) 2008 Pasuran, Java 23 dead, dozens injured in Ramadan (Reaction) Information (Handouts) 2009 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 22 dead, 132 injured Football (Reaction) Design (Throughput) the vision and imagination to achieve a new ethos.” 2009 Birmingham (JLS), UK 60 injured, 4 hospitalised (JLS) (Reaction) Design (Capacity + Arrival Profile) 2010 Timbuktu, Mali, West Africa 26 dead, 55 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2010 Kunda, North India 63 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding - narrow road) Design (Throughput) 2010 Johannesburg, South Africa 14 injured (Overcrowding at entry gates) Information (Forged Tickets) 2010 Duisburg, Germany. 21 dead, 511 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2010 Bihar, India 10 dead, dozens injured (Reaction) Information (Over Reaction) 2010 Nairobi, Kenya 7 dead, 70 injured (Reaction) Information (Rain Stopped) The Rt. Hon. Lord Justice Taylor (1989) 2010 Phnom Penh, Cambodia 347 dead, 395 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Kerala, India 102 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Bamako, Mali 36 dead, 70 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) Final Report on the Hillsborough Disaster 2011 Brazzaville, Congo 7 dead, 30 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Jakarta, Indonesia 2 dead, 13 Injured (Overcrowding) Information (Poor Ticket Allocation) 2012 Port Said, Egypt 74 dead, over 1,000 Injured (Overcrowding + rioting) Design (Throughput + Riot) 2012 Cairo (copic), Egypt 3 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2013 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 62 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing) 2013 Allahabab, Northern India 36 dead, 31 injured (Overcrowding, railway platform) Design (Capacity + Crowd management) 2013 Hubei, China 4 Dead, 14 injured (Overcrowding on stairs - school) Crowd Management 28 years later the jury finds for “unlawful killing” 2013 Datia, India 50 dead, 100+ injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crowd management) 2013 Anambra, Nigeria 28 dead, 200+ injured (Overreaction/Design - call of “fire”) Design (Capacity and crazing) 2014 Ningxia, China 14 Dead, 10 Injured (Design/Overcrowding/Capacity - food handouts) Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management) Those responsible now face criminal charges 2014 Mumbai, India 20 dead, 40 injured (Overcrowding, narrow streets) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2015 Shanghaii, China 36 dead, 46 injured - crowd crushing (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2015 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1500+ dead, thousands injured (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2016 Lucknow, India 24 dead, 20 injured (overcrowding on bridge) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2016 Falls festival, Australia 60 injured on egress Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved 2017 Angola, Africa 17 dead, 76 injured crowd rushing entry point Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management) Year Location Scale of the incident Failure Elements !9 !10 1989 Hillsborough, UK 96 dead, 400 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1990 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1426 pilgrims crushed (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1991 Orkney, South Africa 42 dead, many injured (Overcrowding/riot) Design (Capacity + Crazing) 1994 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 266 pilgrims crushed, 98 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) DIM - ICE : Phases, Influences, Modes 1996 Guatemala City 83 crushed, 180 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Forged Tickets) 1997 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 22 pilgrims crushed, 43 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1998 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 118 pilgrims crushed, 434 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 1999 Kerala, India 51 killed, 150 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running) 1999 Minsk, Belarus 53 killed, 190 injured in stampede (Reaction) Information (Weather + Running) 2001 Ellis Park, South Africa 43 dead, 200+ Injured (Over capacity - Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing) 2001 Aracaju, Brazil 4 dead, including 3 children (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing) Normal Ingress Circulation Egress 2002 Yokohama, Japan 10 trampled, Mall crowd craze (Reaction) Information (Handouts + Crazing) 2001 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 35 pilgrims crushed, 179 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2004 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 249 pilgrims crushed, 252 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2004 Beijing, China 37 dead, 15 injured in crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) Design 2006 Jamarat, Saudi Arabia 363 dead, 389 injured crowd crush (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2006 Manila, Philippines 74 dead, 300 injured crowd crush (Reaction) Design (Throughput) 2006 Yemen, Middle East 51 dead, 238 Injured crowd crush (Reaction) Information (Political Rally) 2008 Himachal Pradesh, India 146 dead, 50 injured in stampede (Narrow road) Design (Throughput) Information 2008 Pasuran, Java 23 dead, dozens injured in Ramadan (Reaction) Information (Handouts) 2009 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 22 dead, 132 injured Football (Reaction) Design (Throughput) 2009 Birmingham (JLS), UK 60 injured, 4 hospitalised (JLS) (Reaction) Design (Capacity + Arrival Profile) 2010 Timbuktu, Mali, West Africa 26 dead, 55 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) Management 2010 Kunda, North India 63 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding - narrow road) Design (Throughput) 2010 Johannesburg, South Africa 14 injured (Overcrowding at entry gates) Information (Forged Tickets) 2010 Duisburg, Germany. 21 dead, 511 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2010 Bihar, India 10 dead, dozens injured (Reaction) Information (Over Reaction) 2010 Nairobi, Kenya 7 dead, 70 injured (Reaction) Information (Rain Stopped) 2010 Phnom Penh, Cambodia 347 dead, 395 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Kerala, India 102 dead, 44 injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Bamako, Mali 36 dead, 70 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) 2011 Brazzaville, Congo 7 dead, 30 Injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity) Emergency Ingress Circulation Egress 2011 Jakarta, Indonesia 2 dead, 13 Injured (Overcrowding) Information (Poor Ticket Allocation) 2012 Port Said, Egypt 74 dead, over 1,000 Injured (Overcrowding + rioting) Design (Throughput + Riot) 2012 Cairo (copic), Egypt 3 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Throughput) 2013 Abidjan, Ivory Coast 62 dead, dozens injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crazing) Design 2013 Allahabab, Northern India 36 dead, 31 injured (Overcrowding, railway platform) Design (Capacity + Crowd management) 2013 Hubei, China 4 Dead, 14 injured (Overcrowding on stairs - school) Crowd Management 2013 Datia, India 50 dead, 100+ injured (Overcrowding) Design (Capacity + Crowd management) 2013 Anambra, Nigeria 28 dead, 200+ injured (Overreaction/Design - call of “fire”) Design (Capacity and crazing) Information 2014 Ningxia, China 14 Dead, 10 Injured (Design/Overcrowding/Capacity - food handouts) Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management) 2014 Mumbai, India 20 dead, 40 injured (Overcrowding, narrow streets) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2015 Shanghaii, China 36 dead, 46 injured - crowd crushing (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2015 Mina Valley, Saudi Arabia 1500+ dead, thousands injured (overcrowding) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) Management 2016 Lucknow, India 24 dead, 20 injured (overcrowding on bridge) Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) 2016 Falls festival, Australia 60 injured on egress Design (Capacity, Crowd Flow) © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved 2017 Angola, Africa 17 dead, 76 injured crowd rushing entry point Design (Crowd flow, Crowd management)

!11 !12 Examples of DIM-ICE risk model Multiple DIM-ICE models

Source - MSc students

!15 !16 4 people per square metre - impeded 5 people per square metre

!19 Crowd density versus crowd flow rate

LowCrowd Risk Density versus Flow HighRates Risk 90

80 Predictable Unpredictable Capacity 70

60 Standing 50

40 Moving 30

20 Free Flowing Congested Shockwaves and crowds collapse? 10 Flow Rate (people permetreRate (people perminute) Flow 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 The physics of a crowd collapse Crowd Density (people per square metre) How to identify the risks of crowd collapse

!23 The accident pyramid and risk analysis

1 Death

10 Injuries

30 First Aid

600 Near Miss

Unknown Unsafe Acts What is a crowd/event “near miss”?

!27 !28

…and you try to push it back into the chicken.

We don’t know how many people may come to the event… ...what is the best way to plan for a major event?

What direction will crowds approach and depart the area? Route question (transportation hubs to and from event site) What is your event capacity? How much Area do you have? How will the area be used? How quickly will these spaces fill? We sent a man to the moon by rubbing bits What crowd Movements do we expect? Over what period of time? of plastic together What type of crowd are we expecting? People, demographics, families?

!31 Routes - parade distribution/pressure

Leicester Caribbean Carnival

No immediate rail access The premier multi-cultural event - Midlands (UK) 100,000

For 25 years high profile, city wide revenue Low crime and disorder

Donec quis nunc

10,000 m2 8,400 m2 7,000 m2

!35 !36 Model of the change of venue Modelling New Year (London 2006 - 2016)

Donec quis nunc

Google Earth - using simple powerpoint graphics. The visuals do all the work

Movement

!40 Kim Kardashian - Millions of Milkshakes

People (profile)

Composition, demographics, history Previous behaviour (linked to performer/venue)

What do we know of this crowd?

Concert 5 - 6 pm2 Large Screens 2.5 pm2 Using models for decision support

Modelling work for the Sydney Olympics Site analysis, crowd management plan

Control room systems

!43 !44

Crowd Condition Monitor

14 days

11m - 14m people

!47 Jamarat Bridge 3,000,000 people per day

Risks - public and professional views

Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA

One day course - Ipswich

Location Risk may be focussed at a specific location

Duration Risk may exist for a short time (entry/exit systems)

Severity Risk may be high or low at different times

!51 !52 Event ingress risk mapping Mid-event risk mapping

!55 !56

!59 !60 Inter-professional communications Application for congestion

Problem we need to fix

!63 !64 Operational Research and Crowd Science Queueing Theory (linked to behaviour)

Forecasting Arrival and Departure rates

!68 Capt. Marcel Altenburg MA PGDip

Captain and Unit Commander in the German Federal Armed Forces 12 years leading and training ground combat troops

Leading role in control rooms and situation rooms Military and civilian

MA in Human Science Hamburg University and Helmut-Schmidt-University, Germany (2008-2012)

MSc Student in Crowd Safety and Risk Analysis Manchester Metropolitan University (since 2015) Inauguration (2017) Enterprise Delivery Fellow at MMU Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still FIMA FICPEM SFIIRSM MEWI FIPM FHEA 16th Jan 2017 (4 days before the inauguration) Capt. Marcel Altenburg MA PGDip 2 years working with me on international projects

31st Dec 2016

!71 !72 Using Goole Earth to estimate the distance

Using Google Earth to approximate the field of view This maps to a ground area calculation

In 1861 source http://www.authentic-campaigner.com/forum/ showthread.php?9307-soldier-s-heights-and-weights

The average height is 5 ft 7 in. The average weight is 137 lbs

In 2017 source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ List_of_average_human_height_worldwideUnited States and http:// www.newsmax.com/US/average-weight-man-woman-obese/2015/06/15/ id/650546/

The average height is 5 ft 9 in The average weight is 166 lbs

+20% body mass, we can assume a 6 people per square metre packing 1410 m2 x 5 people per square metre = 7,050 people density for smaller body sizes (even in Winter) © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

4 March 1861 !75

Head Count (Approximation)

7,350 people

5,000 people

2,000 people Boasting of 3,000,000 people

50 people

300 people “Can you guys do this LIVE?”

What area can the crowd occupy?

!79 !80 New York Marathon 42.195km

42 km x 2 sides = 84,000m

x 2 (people per metre) = 168,000 people x 18 deep (both sides) = 3,024,000 people

We can measures these areas using Google Earth Pro

Crowd Dynamics Routes, Areas, Movement (transport and parking capacity)

Then monitor the crowd Estimated 1.8 million people would cover 720,000 m2 build up on the day Obama crowd (2009) occupied 175,000 m2 How the space is 400,000 to 500,000 people filling over time

!83 !84 Bowl = 39,346 m2 Penn Avenue = 7,300m2 -10% for spaces 2 35,000 m2 of seating Union Square = 20,000m All seated 2 people per Maryland Ave. = 5,300m2 square metres Mall Standing = 33,200m2 Total area = 65,800m2 70,000 people (approx) At 2pm2 = 131,600 At 3pm2 = 197,400 The Bowl 70,000 people Between 200,000 and 267,400 people If 100% occupied space 250,000 tickets

Only part of the mall area was covered We can see the white flooring (used in 2013) The media tent is the For safety, the sections are divided end of the viewing Barriers and the media tent space No one can see from It could hold 500,000 people (@ 2.5 pm2) behind the tent If fully occupied (includes the Mall Standing area) © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved

!87 !88 Movement (metro and parking - live)

Compare to 2009

2009

2017

From the 2009 satellite images we can measure the high density areas

The front 1/3rd (beyond the reflecting pool) was full in both events

!91 !92 The high density areas were 1/3rd of 2009 At 11am 193,000 trips (2017)

100% 37% The New York Times published the article, using the above graphics

We had confirmation in the visuals, the area analysis, the crowd build up over time and the metro data. All point to 1/3rd the Obama crowd © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved © G. Keith Still. All rights reserved !94 “I made a speech, I looked out..”

The viral tweet

!95 !96 It was a mostly empty 3rd Street field Global news coverages - rained throughout Not packed to the Washington Memorial, 9th Street 3rd to 9th only partially full 6 blocks not 20

It was raining throughout

George W. Bush made international headlines trying to pull on a poncho during the speech

A moment of light relief in an otherwise downbeat, doom and gloom, speech

New York Times (21st Jan 2017) 100% 37% 54% Great job guys, could you count the Women’s March today?

How big would this crowd be?

Will this become a story?

!99 !100 Women's March 2 180,000m 295%

Inauguration 61,000m2

NYT - front page 3 times in one week

!103 !104 Saturday 21st Jan 2017 Kellyanne Conway - Counsellor to the President

Trolls - these are NOT at the same time

We can see Obama and Trump on the screens !

!107 !108 Independent validation (hi-resolution images)

440,000 +/- 10% during the march

Our count was in real-time during Sir Anthony Hopkins as The Boys from MMU who assembly 470,000 +/- 10% Prof. Dr. G. Keith Still

Michael Fassbender as Capt. Marcel Altenburg

“A new ethos”

Any questions?