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Stratford-on-; Emerging Trends & Issues

Andy Davis, Warwickshire Observatory Simon Purfield, Stratford District Council

December 2015 Background to the Quality of Life Reports

• Produced annually since 2000 • Combine a range of data and information • Building a picture over time • Decision making Consultation in Stratford District

Every two years we • Question almost 2000 residents in our Residents’ Survey • Run the Customer Satisfaction Index to help understand what people want from our services On average, twice a year • Ask policy, strategic and service based questions to our 1200 strong Citizens’ Panel Ad-hoc • Run consultations on specific topics Current Population The mid-2014 estimates suggest Stratford-on-Avon is home to 121,056 people

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

Stratford-on-Avon Females 45-49

Age Stratford-on-Avon Males 40-44 Warwickshire Males 35-39 Warwickshire Females 30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% Projected Population 2012 2037

+11.5% Stratford-on- Avon +13.9%

Warwickshire +16.2%

England Projected Population Age Group 2012 2037 % Change 0-4 5,900 5,700 -3.4% 5-9 6,300 6,300 0.0% 10-14 6,600 6,700 1.5% 15-19 6,700 6,400 -4.5% 20-24 5,100 4,600 -9.8% 25-29 5,300 5,700 7.5% 30-34 5,600 5,700 1.8% 35-39 6,600 6,200 -6.1% 40-44 8,800 7,300 -17.0% 45-49 9,600 8,000 -16.7% 50-54 9,100 7,800 -14.3% 55-59 8,200 7,900 -3.7% 60-64 8,700 8,200 -5.7% 65-69 9,100 9,900 8.8% 70-74 6,200 10,200 64.5% 75-79 5,200 8,900 71.2% 80-84 3,900 7,000 79.5% 85-89 2,400 6,000 150.0% 90+ 1,400 5,900 321.4%

Dependency Ratio: 63.7 98.2 Mosaic Profile of Stratford- on-Avon Households 30%

Warwickshire 25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Mosaic Group Income & Labour Market

Medium residence-based gross annual earnings Proportion of Unemployed Residents (JSA) 3.50% Stratford-on-Avon= £28,675 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% Warwickshire= £28,528 1.50% Stratford-on-Avon 1.00% 0.50% Warwickshire 0.00%

Proportion of Long-term Unemployed Residents (JSA) Medium workplace-based 0.60% 0.50% gross annual earnings 0.40% 0.30% Stratford-on-Avon= £27,561 0.20% Stratford-on-Avon 0.10% Warwickshire Warwickshire= £27,085 0.00% Housing: Tenure Stratford-on-Avon: 2001 1% Home ownership in Warwickshire has 13% declined from almost 75% in 2001 to 70% in 2011. Also, the number of 4% privately rented homes in Warwickshire has doubled from 2001 to 2011, in line with national trends 75% 8% Key Owned Other Private Shared Ownership Social

Stratford-on-Avon: 2011 1% 12% Home ownership in Stratford-on- 3% Avon has followed a similar pattern with home ownership decreasing from 75 % in 2001 to 74% in 2011. The percentage of 11% 74% private renters has also increased significantly Housing: Affordability

Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Deprivation Proportion of children in low income families by LSOA LSOA %

Lighthorne & Heath 23 Henley East & Beaudesert Henley East and Beaudesert 19.7

Maybird 19.6

Alcester East & Island 18.8

Alcester North & Conway 18.5

Wellesbourne West 18.5 Legend Studley South 16.7 Warwickshire - 2011 Census - Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) Bidford East, Waterloo & Broom 16.4 Children Percent Lighthorne & 0.0 - 2.5 West 16 Lighthorne 2.51 - 6.20 Shipston West and Centre 15.7 Heath 6.21 - 9.70 Studley North 13.8 9.71 - 13.80 13.81 - 23.0 Warwickshire District / Borough Boundaries Stratford-on-Avon=9.7% Warwickshire = 13.5% Deprivation Proportion of households that are fuel poor (LSOA)

LSOA %

Old Town & Town Centre South 17.4

Town Centre North 14.8

Brailes 14.7

Burton Dassett 14.5

Ladbroke & Priors 14.1

Napton on the Hill 13.8

Long Compton 13.6 Legend Quinton 13 Warwickshire - 2011 Census - Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) Dunnington and 12.7 FUELPercent 4.40 - 6.4 Tanworth 12.6 6.41 - 9.0 9.10 - 10.9 10.91 - 13.0 Stratford-on-Avon= 10.6% 13.01 - 17.4 Warwickshire = 12.0% Warwickshire District / Borough Boundaries Deprivation: Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015

Maybird

Alcester North & Conway

Stratford Mount Pleasant East Legend Warwickshire - 2011 Census - Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) RankingsIndex of Multiple Deprivation 2015 Top 10% most deprived LSOAs nationally Top 10-20% most deprived LSOAs nationally Top 20-30% most deprived LSOAs nationally Top 30-40% most deprived LSOAs nationally Top 40-50% most deprived LSOAs nationally 50% least deprived LSOAs nationally Warwickshire District / Borough Boundaries Warwickshire County Boundary Deprivation: IMD 2015

• According to the IMD 2015, Stratford-on-Avon District is the least deprived Local Authority District in Warwickshire with a national rank of 272nd, out of 326 Local Authorities.

• There are no LSOAs within Stratford-on-Avon that feature within the top 30% most deprived LSOAs nationally.

• When looking at the Barriers to Housing and Services Deprivation domain within the IMD, there are 14 LSOAs within Stratford-on-Avon that feature in the top 10% most deprived LSOAs nationally.

• Four LSOAs within Stratford-on-Avon feature in the top 10% most deprived LSOAs nationally for the Living Environment Domain within the IMD.

Education However there is an attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils Educational attainment in Stratford-on-Avon is (those eligible for free higher than the national average school meals) and other

pupils Key Stage 2 2014: % of pupils achieving Reading, Writing and Maths at Level 4 or above: National: 78% Stratford-on-Avon: 83% 6.18% of children Key Stage 4 2014: % of pupils achieving 5+ A*-C (inc in Stratford-on-Avon are E&M) eligible and claiming free National: 57% Stratford-on-Avon: 68% school meals (reception to year 11)

Life Expectancy: Stratford-on-Avon Health 86 85.2 85

84 Warwickshire Males

83 Warwickshire Females 82 81 81

80

Age Years in Age 79 78 77 Males Females

Projecting numbers of residents with limited activity: Stratford-on-Avon

Self Reported Health: Stratford-on-Avon

Very Bad Health Very Good Health 0.9%

48.2% Crime and Community Safety

Recorded Crime Rates per 1,000 residents (April 2014- March 15)

All Recorded Violence Domestic Burglary Vehicle Crime** Against the Burglary* Other** Crime** Person & Sexual Offences ** Stratford-on-Avon 38 6 4 3 5 Warwickshire 48 9 5 4 7 * Rate per 1,000 households, ** Rate per 1,000 residents

There is a relationship between fear of crime and actual levels of crime

Domestic Burglary Violent Crime

District – Important vs. Improvement

Not important but needs improving Important & needs improving Most Important Aspects 60% Level of crime 57%

M Health services 56% 50% Q Clean streets 42%

Most Need Improving 40%

B Level of traffic congestion 51%

O Road & pavement repairs 46% 30% C

Activities for teenagers 36%

20% S J R I H Aspect that needsthat Aspect improving K D 10% E F N G L A P 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Important aspect Important but doesn’t need improving (STRENGTHS) Not important, no improvement

A - Access to countryside B - Activities for teenagers C - Affordable decent housing D - Clean streets E - Community activities F - Cultural facilities G - Education provision H - Facilities for young children I - Health services J - Job prospects K - Level of crime L - Level of pollution M - Level of traffic congestion N - Parks and open spaces O - Public transport P - Race relations Q - Road and pavement repairs R - Shopping facilities S - Sports & leisure facilities Average BASE: (1732) – Source: Stratford DC Residents Survey 2014 Satisfaction with local area as place to live

Locality

Shipston 92 % 95

Alcester / Bidford 93 93

Henley / Studley 97 91

Southam 87 91

2012 / 90 91 2014

Stratford 91 85

BASE: (2012: 2054), (2014: 1882) – Source: Stratford DC Residents Survey 2014 Contact:

Warwickshire Observatory

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.warwickshireobservatory.org

Stratford District Council

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.stratford.gov.uk