The South and the Gop

THE SOUTH AND THE GOP

The Rhodes Cook Letter

February 2003 The Rhodes Cook Letter FEBRUARY 2003 / VOL. 4, NO. 1 Contents The South, the GOP and the White House ...... 3 Chart: The Party of Lincoln ...... 3 Chart: The Party of the ‘Southern Strategy’...... 4 Chart: The GOP and the Presidency...... 5 Chart: Percentage of Republican Electoral Votes from the South ...... 6 Chart: The South vs. the Non-South ...... 6 Map and Chart: The South: Cornerstone of Bush’s 2000 Victory...... 7 Chart: The South in 2004: Offering Even More Electoral Votes ...... 8

Recalling Strom Thurmond and His 1948 Campaign . . . . 9 Chart : The South from the Dixiecrats to the Present ...... 10 Chart: Strom Thurmond’s Top Counties in 1948 ...... 11 Chart: Vote in African-American Strongholds ...... 12 The South & Congress: A Latecomer to the GOP Side . 13 Chart: Republican House Seats in the South at Key Points since 1952 . . . . . 14 Chart: South Cornerstone of Recent GOP House Majorities ...... 15 Chart: 108th Congress: No South, No GOP Control ...... 15

Changing Composition of the 108th Congress ...... 16 What’s up in 2003 ...... 16 What’s up in 2004 ...... 17 Subscription Page ...... 19

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 2 The South, the GOP and the White House By Rhodes Cook

rent Lott’s Tkind words The Party of Lincoln about the 1948 During the GOP’s first century of existence, it was widely identified with Northern victory in presidential can- the Civil War. Republicans won the White House often in the late 19th and early 20th century didacy of Strom but with few, if any, electoral votes from the South. GOP inroads were limited to two separate decades - the period of Reconstruction immediately after the Civil War, and the 1920s, when Thurmond late the Democratic Party was rent by division between urban and rural factions. last year had a number of rami- This publication takes an expansive view of the South, defining it as the 11 states of the fications, not the Confederacy plus Kentucky and Oklahoma, for a total of 13 states. least of which was Republican and Democratic nominees are listed for each election, with the last name of the to throw a spot- winner capitalized. light on the critical role that the Republican Electoral Votes South has played Southern South % in the develop- Candidates States Won South Non-South Total of GOP ment of the mod- by GOP Total ern Republican 1856 Fremont (R) - BUCHANAN (D) 0 0 114 114 0% Party. 1860 LINCOLN (R) - Douglas (D) 0 0 180 180 0% Over its nearly 1864 LINCOLN (R) - McClellan (D) 0 0 212 212 0% 150-year history, 1868 GRANT (R) - Seymour (D) 6 41 173 214 19% the Republican 1872 GRANT (R) - Greeley (D) 6 50 236 286 17% Party has won 1876 HAYES (R) - Tilden (D) 3 19 166 185 10% presidential elec- 1880 GARFIELD (R) - Hancock (D) 0 0 214 214 0% tions with support 1884 Blaine (R) - CLEVELAND (D) 0 0 182 182 0% from the South and without it. 1888 HARRISON (R) - Cleveland (D) 0 0 233 233 0% And arguably, the 1892 Harrison (R) - CLEVELAND (D) 0 0 145 145 0% middle of the 20th 1896 McKINLEY (R) - Bryan (D) 1 12 259 271 4% century was an 1900 McKINLEY (R) - Bryan (D) 0 0 292 292 0% important demar- 1904 T. ROOSEVELT (R) - Parker (D) 0 0 336 336 0% cation point in the 1908 TAFT (R) - Bryan (D) 0 0 321 321 0% party’s evolution. Through the 1948 1912 Taft (R) - WILSON (D) 0 08 80% election, the GOP 1916 Hughes (R) - WILSON (D) 0 0 254 254 0% regularly lost the 1920 HARDING (R) - Cox (D) 2 22 382 404 5% South but often 1924 COOLIDGE (R) - Davis (D) 1 13 369 382 3% won the White 1928 HOOVER (R) - Smith (D) 7 85 359 444 19% House by sweep- 1932 Hoover (R) - FDR (D) 0 059590% ing every other part of the coun- 1936 Landon (R) - FDR (D) 0 08 80% try. 1940 Willkie (R) - FDR (D) 0 082820% 1944 Dewey (R) - FDR (D) 0 099990% Yet since the 1948 Dewey (R) - TRUMAN (D) 0 0 189 189 0% middle of the last century, Republi- Total (1856-1948) 26 242 4,872 5,114 5% cans have become The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 3 The Party of the ‘Southern Strategy’

Since 1952, the GOP has turned its beachheads in the South into total hegemony. In four of the last eight presidential elections, Republicans have swept every state in the region (1972, 1984, 1988 and 2000). And in a fifth contest (1980), the GOP carried all but one Southern state. In the process, the South has become an increasingly critical part of the Republican presidential coalition, to the point of providing the GOP ticket with at least 60% of its electoral votes in each of the last three elections. Republican electoral vote totals are based on the vote for GOP nominees in the Electoral College. “Faithless electors” are not included in the totals. Republican and Democratic nominees are listed for each election, with the last name of the winner capitalized.

Southern States Republican Electoral Votes South % of Candidates Won by GOP South Non-South Total GOP Total 1952 EISENHOWER (R) - Stevenson (D) 5 65 377 442 15% 1956 EISENHOWER (R) - Stevenson (D) 7 85 372 457 19% 1960 Nixon (R) - KENNEDY (D) 5 50 169 219 23% 1964 Goldwater (R) - JOHNSON (D) 5 47 5 52 90% 1968 NIXON (R) - Humphrey (D) 7 74 227 301 25% 1972 NIXON (R) - McGovern (D) 13 146 374 520 28% 1976 Ford (R) - CARTER (D) 2 20 220 240 8% 1980 REAGAN (R) - Carter (D) 12 135 354 489 28% 1984 REAGAN (R) - Mondale (D) 13 155 370 525 30% 1988 G. BUSH (R) - Dukakis (D) 13 155 271 426 36% 1992 G. Bush (R) - CLINTON (D) 8 116 52 168 69% 1996 Dole (R) - CLINTON (D) 8 104 55 159 65% 2000 G.W. BUSH (R) - Gore (D) 13 163 108 271 60%

Total (1952-2000) 111 1,315 2,954 4,269 31% increasingly dependent on the South – to the point that in each of the last three presidential elections, the region has provided the GOP with at least 60% of the party’s electoral votes. Over the past generation or two, Republicans have gone from being viewed as the party of Abra- ham Lincoln and “the War of Northern Aggression” to the party of Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, states’ rights and the “Southern strategy.” They were aided in this transition by the regional, race-oriented third-party efforts of Thurmond in 1948 and George Wallace in 1968, each of which left the Republicans a bit stronger among white voters in the South than they were before. The Thurmond and Wallace candidacies provided vehicles for conservative white Southern Democrats to exit the party of their ancestors without the trauma of directly entering the GOP, regarded by many in Dixie at the time as its own axis of evil.

The Party of Lincoln

n its formative years, the GOP had literally no appeal in the South. The party’s first presidential Inominee in 1856, the explorer John C. Fremont, drew not a single recorded vote in any South- ern state. Four years later, Lincoln did little better, drawing 1% in Virginia and his native Kentucky The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 4 and nothing, nada, zilch, in the other Southern states. Put another way, of the roughly 1 million votes counted across the South in 1860, Lincoln won just 3,251 of them. But Lincoln’s election showed that Republicans could win the White House without any support from the South. Before the Civil War, the party was identified with opposition to slavery. For decades after the Civil War, it “waved the bloody shirt” of Union victory. And the GOP triumphed with regularity well into the 20th century, winning all but four of the 18 presidential elections from 1860 through 1928. The GOP and the Presidency: During that period of almost Winning with the South and without It total Republican hegemony, the Since it fielded its first presidential ticket in 1856, the Republican Party has won nearly 60% of party garnered all presidential elections. And if the five-election Democratic win streak during the New Deal only a small era (1932-48) is excluded, the Republican winning percentage jumps to nearly 70%. fraction of its During the latter part of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th, the GOP won the electoral votes White House with few, if any, electoral votes from the South. In the last half century, though, from the South the region has become an increasingly important part of the Republican presidential coalition, and those basi- providing nearly one-third of the party’s electoral votes since 1952 and nearly two-thirds of cally came in the GOP electors since 1992. two clusters of elections. GOP Record in The first was Presidential Elections Republican Electoral Votes during Recon- South % of Era Total Won Lost Win % South Non-South Total struction imme- GOP Total diately after the 1856-1948 24 14 10 58% 242 4,872 5,114 5% Civil War, when 1952-2000 13 8 5 62% 1,315 2,954 4,269 31% federal troops Overall occupied much 37 22 15 59% 1,557 7,826 9,383 17% of the region. In Record 1868 and again in 1872, the Republican candidate, former Union General Ulysses S. Grant, won the White House with the support from six states in the region he helped subjugate. In 1876, disputed electoral votes from three Southern states (Florida, Louisiana and South Carolina) gave Republican Rutherford B. Hayes the White House. But with the end of Reconstruction and the withdrawal of federal forces, Republicans carried only one Southern state over the next 40 years, and that just barely, as William McKinley won Kentucky in 1896 by 277 votes out of nearly 450,000 cast. Republicans did not make any other inroads in the South until the 1920s, when bitter factional infighting within the Democratic Party between rural “drys” and urban “wets” gave the GOP a tem- porary opening. Warren Harding won two Southern states in 1920 (Oklahoma and Tennessee). Cal- vin Coolidge carried one (Kentucky) in 1924. And in 1928, when Democrats nominated Al Smith, a Roman Catholic from New York, Republican Herbert Hoover was able to win seven states across the largely Protestant South. Yet in the Deep South, where the black population has been highest, race (and party loyalty) trumped religion. Smith held all the Deep South states from South Carolina on the east to Arkansas and Louisiana on the west – including the four states that supported Thurmond in 1948 (Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina) and the five that backed Wallace in 1968 (Alabama,

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 5 Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Missis- Percentage of Republican sippi). Electoral Votes from the South But the GOP inroads were short-lived. Through the five Democratic election victories (1932-48) that followed, Republicans failed to carry a single Southern state. And in 1948, Republican Thomas E. Dewey reached 40% of the vote only in Kentucky and Virginia on the fringes of the region. Even with Thurmond on the ballot, Dewey came within 10 percentage points of car- rying just one Southern state, Virginia. And in Mississippi and South Carolina, the Republi- The South vs. the Non-South: can ticket was virtually invisible, drawing less Average GOP Electoral Votes Per Election than 5% of the vote.

From Beachheads to Hegemony

et the election of Y1948 still marked the end of an era. In nearly three-fourths of the elections from 1856 through 1948 (17 of 24), the GOP failed to carry a single Southern state. And for the entire period, Republicans averaged just 10 electoral votes per election from the entire region. From 1952 through 2000, though, the GOP has received on aver-

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 6 age more than 100 electoral votes per election from the South, and in only one contest (in 1976) carried less than five Southern states. But Republican strength did not appear full blown across the South overnight. The GOP went from being a non-factor in the region to a stable presence, before ultimately becoming the major player – helped along by a repositioning of the two parties on the issue of race. From 1952 through 1968, Republicans carried from five to seven Southern states per election. How- ever, it was not until 1964 – when Goldwa- ter mounted his cam- The South: Cornerstone of Bush’s 2000 Victory paign sympathetic to individual and states’ Fully 60% of the electoral votes won by George W. Bush in 2000 came from the rights – that the GOP South. In contrast, the Republicans’ historic home, the Midwest, provided the Bush- was able to sweep Cheney ticket a bit less than one-quarter of the party’s winning electoral vote total. the entire Deep South In parentheses is the total number of electoral votes in each region in 2000. Bush from South Carolina to won every electoral vote from the South. In no other region did he win a majority Louisiana for the first of electors. time ever. Goldwater’s breakthrough proved to Bush Electoral Votes (2000) be a harbinger of things to come, for in 1972, Region Regional Total As % of GOP National Total Richard Nixon became South (163) 163 60% the first Republican Midwest (129) 61 23% presidential candidate West (119) 38 14% to carry every Southern Northeast (127) 9 3% state. National Total (538) 271 100% A gradual role reversal had taken place since The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 7 1948. Long the party of The South in 2004: Offering Even More Lincoln and the Negro, the GOP had become the party Electoral Votes of the Southern strategy In recent presidential elections, the Republican base has been the South, while and the white South. From the Democratic base has been the Northeast - a tradeoff that has increasingly 1972 through 1988, Repub- worked to the GOP’s advantage. licans swept every state in In the coin of the realm for presidential elections – electoral votes – the shift in the region three different postwar strength between the two regions has been dramatic. When Harry Tru- times with three different man scored the last of five straight Democratic victories in 1948, the Northeast candidates (Nixon in 1972, had nine more electoral votes than the South. When George W. Bush runs for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and reelection in 2004, the South will have 46 more electoral votes than the North- George Bush in 1988). And east. in 1980, Reagan carried all Since the presidential election of 1972, the South has had more electoral votes but one Southern state. than any other region. It will have five more in 2004 than it did in 2000. Mean- Yet in all four of these elec- while, the Northeast will have five fewer electoral votes next year than in 2000. tions, the South merely It will fall into last place among the regions, a spot long held by the West. provided icing on the In bold type is the electoral vote total of the leading region in each decade, Republican cake. The GOP beginning with the reapportionment that followed the 1940 Census. From would have won each con- 1944 through 1956, the national total of electoral votes was 531. The number test without the region’s increased in to 537 in 1960 and to 538 in 1964, which it has been ever since. electoral votes.

EElectionslections SSouth’south’s RRankank SSouthouth NNortheastortheast MMidwestidwest WWestest Ironically, the one president the South could claim 1944-48 3 148 157 155 71 to have elected during this 1952-56 3 146 153 153 79 period was a Democrat, 1960 3 146 153 153 85 Jimmy Carter of Georgia, 1964-68 3 145 149 149 95 who swept all but two states from his native South 1972-80 1 147 144 145 102 (Oklahoma and Virginia) 1984-88 1 155 135 137 111 in narrowly winning the 1992-2000 1 163 127 129 119 White House in 1976. 2004 1 168 122 124 124 Unfortunatley for the Dem- ocrats, Carter’s showing in 1976 did not prove to be a harbinger of a Democratic revival. When Carter sought reelection in 1980, the entire South deserted him with the exception of Georgia. When Arkansas’ Bill Clinton won the White House in the 1990s, he put together a winning coalition that each time included only five Southern states. And when Democrat Al Gore sought the presidency in 2000, he lost the entire South including his home state of Tennessee. In short, even with a Southerner atop the ticket, the Democrats have settled into a position rather similar to the one that Republicans were in for nearly a century after the Civil War – having to look to the rest of the country for virtually all of their electoral votes. Meanwhile, Republicans have found themselves in the opposite position - having to rely on solid support from the South to win the presidency, to the point that in 2000 Bush swept the entire region with its large block of electoral votes but still triumphed with just one electoral vote to spare. So, unless the political landscape changes dramatically over the next year, the South should con- tinue to be a Republican bailiwick. But it also appears that neither party will have a route to the White House in 2004 that allows much room for error.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 8 Recalling Strom Thurmond and His Campaign of 1948

trom Thurmond’s long political career in many ways reflected the political permutations of Shis home region. Like nearly every Southern politician of his generation, Thurmond began his career as a Democrat. But while governor of South Carolina, he bolted the party of his birth in 1948 to run a frankly segregationist third-party presidential campaign that helped begin the crack up of the “Solid (Democratic) South.” Thurmond returned to the Democratic Party after his presidential run and won election to the Senate in 1954. But 10 years later, in the midst of Barry Goldwater’s presidential campaign, Thur- mond switched to the Republican Party where he remained until his retirement in 2002. But it was Thurmond’s own presidential campaign in 1948 that former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott lauded in his controversial remarks at Thurmond’s 100th birthday party in December. “When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We’re proud of it,” said Lott of his home state of Mississippi. “And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn’t have had all these problems over the years, either.” Lott contended that he was not talking about racial segregation, something that Thurmond him- self argued long after his campaign was over. In a 1976 interview recounted in Nadine Cohodas’ biography, Strom Thurmond and The Politics of Southern Change, Thurmond maintained that his campaign was about defining the proper role of the federal government. “If I had been elected president in 1948, history would be vastly different. I believe we would have stemmed the growth of Big Government,” said Thurmond. “Today the federal giant is a reality. In 1948 we were at a crossroads where our national direction needed to be challenged.” (Cohodas’ fine book is the source of many of the quotatations that follow.) Thurmond maintained that his campaign championed the principle of states’ rights. But in the ethos of the time, that clearly meant the right of Southern states to preserve their customs and way of life, which was based on racial segregation. A quid pro quo had existed between Dixie and the national Democratic Party for nearly a century. The South gave the national party its loyalty in exchange for the recognition of white supremacy within the region. This arrangement had been kept in place for generations by the party’s two-thirds rule, which required a two-thirds majority of delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination. The rule had essentially given the South a veto power over the choice of a nominee, but was jetti- soned at the 1936 convention near the zenith of Franklin Roosevelt’s power and popularity. Southern Democrats quickly sensed that the balance of power within the party was tipping to Northern liberals, who in 1948 added a strong civil rights plank to the party platform. Thurmond and many other Southern Democrats saw the plank both as a threat to their way of life, as well as evidence of their region’s waning influence within the party. Within days of the close of the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, Southern dissidents gath- ered in Birmingham, Ala., to form the States’ Rights Democratic Party, which became popularly known as the Dixiecrats. From the start, it was clear that race was on their mind. (Continued on Page 12)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 9 The South from the Dixiecrats to the Present

The chart below compares the strength of the two major Southern-oriented third parties of the 20th century with the recent success of the Republican Party across the South. States are rank-ordered by their black population in 1950, the Census closest to Strom Thurmond’s presidential run. Thurmond in 1948 and George Wallace in 1968 both tended to run best among white voters in Southern states with large black populations. The race issue also helped fuel the Southern Republican advance in the latter stages of the 20th century, but the GOP’s appeal has proven much broader than either Thurmond or Wallace could demonstrate. Four times since 1972 the Republican nominee has swept every state in the South, most recently George Bush in 1988 and George W. Bush in 2000. And the GOP has established hegemony in non-presidential races across the South in states with both a high and low minority population. Winning percentages are in bold type, as are Republican totals in states where the party currently holds a majority of Senate or House seats, or the governorship. The black population percentages in 1950 and 2000 are from the Census Bureau. The presidential vote percentages are from America at the Polls 1960-2000 (CQ Press).

Black % of Thurmond Wallace G.Bush G.W. Pop. % % % Bush % Senators House Governor Rank State 1950 2000 1948 1968 1988 2000 R D R D Ronnie 1 Mississippi 45% 36% 87.2% 63.5% 59.9% 57.6% 2 022Musgrove (D) South Mark 2 Carolina 39% 30% 72.0% 32.3% 61.5% 56.8% 114 2 Sanford (R) Mike 3 Louisiana 33% 33% 49.1% 48.3% 54.3% 52.6% 024 3 Foster (R) Bob 4 Alabama 32% 26% 79.7% 65.9% 59.2% 56.5% 2 0 5 2 Riley (R) Sonny 5 Georgia 31% 29% 20.3% 42.8% 59.8% 54.7% 118 5 Perdue (R) North Mike 6 Carolina 26% 22% 8.8% 31.3% 58.0% 56.0% 117 6 Easley (D) Mike Huckabee 7 Arkansas 22% 16% 16.5% 38.9% 56.4% 51.3% 0213 (R) Jeb Florida 22% 15% 15.5% 28.5% 60.9% 48.8% 0218 7 Bush (R) Mark Virginia 22% 20% 10.4% 23.6% 59.7% 52.5% 2 0 8 3 Warner (D) Phil 10 Tennessee 16% 16% 13.4% 34.0% 57.9% 51.1% 2 045Bredesen (D) Rick 11 Texas 13% 12% 9.3% 19.0% 56.0% 59.3% 2 01517Perry (R) Paul 12 Kentucky 7% 7% 1.3% 18.3% 55.5% 56.5% 2 0 5 1 Patton (D) Brad Oklahoma 7% 8% - 20.3% 57.9% 60.3% 2 0 4 1 Henry (D) Regional Total 17 9 85 57 7R, 6D

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 10 Strom Thurmond’s Top Counties in 1948 When Strom Thurmond was the presidential standard-bearer of the States’ Rights Democratic Party in 1948, his top 30 counties were clustered in three Deep South states - Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina. Thurmond had the official Democratic ballot line in all three states, and his top counties were generally rural ones with a substantial black population.

Few blacks voted in these counties in 1948, but they do now. In the 2000 election, 17 of Thurmond’s top 30 counties backed Democrat Al Gore. Those counties that voted in 2000 for George W. Bush are in bold type. Near the top of the list of Thurmond’s best counties is Edgefield County, S.C., where Thurmond was born in 1902. Altogether, he carried about 250 Southen counties in his 1948 presidential bid.

The total population of each county is based on the 1950 Census, but the black percentage in each county is based on the 2000 Census, with its national rank - as determined by the Census Bureau - in parentheses. Total Pop. Black % of Pop. Thurmond % Presidential County 1950 2000 1948 Winner ‘00 Bullock Co., Ala. 16,054 73% (10) 98.8% Gore (69%) Choctaw Co, Ala. 19,152 44% (133) 98.8% Gore (50%) Wilcox Co., Ala. 23,476 72% (11) 98.8% Gore (67%) Edgefield Co., S.C. 16,591 42% (165) 98.2% Bush (54%) Monroe Co., Ala. 25,732 40% (184) 97.9% Bush (58%) Clarke Co., Ala. 26,548 35% (250) 97.6% Bush (56%) Humphreys Co., Miss. 23,115 72% (12) 97.6% Gore (58%) Jefferson Co., Miss. 11,306 87% (1) 97.1% Gore (82%) Washington Co., Ala. 15,612 65% (27) 97.0% Bush (54%) Lincoln Co., Miss. 27,899 30% (329) 97.0% Bush (66%) Rankin Co., Miss. 28,881 17% (566) 97.0% Bush (80%) Crenshaw Co., Ala. 18,981 25% (406) 96.8% Bush (58%) Marengo Co., Ala. 29,494 52% (84) 96.4% Gore (50%) Holmes Co., Miss. 33,301 79% (6) 96.2% Gore (73%) Yazoo Co., Miss. 35,712 54% (73) 96.0% Bush (50%) McCormick Co., S.C. 9,577 54% (75) 96.0% Gore (52%) Copiah Co., Miss. 30,493 51% (90) 95.9% Bush (53%) Hale Co., Ala. 20,832 59% (56) 95.8% Gore (60%) Sharkey Co., Miss. 12,903 69% (16) 95.8% Gore (59%) Henry Co., Ala. 18,674 32% (285) 95.6% Bush (59%) Amite Co., Miss. 19,261 43% (154) 95.6% Bush (57%) Claiborne Co., Miss. 11,944 84% (3) 95.6% Gore (80%) Perry Co., Ala. 20,439 68% (20) 95.5% Gore (70%) Tunica Co., Miss. 21,664 70% (14) 95.3% Gore (65%) Calhoun Co., S.C. 14,753 49% (104) 95.3% Bush (51%) Conecuh Co., Ala. 21,776 44% (140) 95.1% Gore (50%) Lowndes Co., Ala 18,018 73% (8) 95.1% Gore (73%) Sumter Co., Ala. 23,610 73% (9) 95.1% Gore (73%) Clay Co., Miss. 17,757 56% (65) 95.1% Gore (55%) Pike Co., Ala. 30,608 37% (232) 94.9% Bush (58%)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 11 (Continued from Page 9) A platform was approved with a civil rights planks that began: “We stand for the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race…” In the keynote address, former Vote in African-American Strongholds Alabama Gov. Frank Dixon What a difference a half century (plus five years makes). Strom Thurmond carried a number of charged that Presi- heavily black counties during his 1948 presidential run that are now a reliable part of the Democratic dent Harry Tru- presidential coalition. Meanwhile, in the heavily black jurisdictions listed below, George Bush ran man’s civil rights better in 1988 than his son did in 2000, with the largest falloff in suburban black-majority counties program would where recent demographic changes have featured an exodus of white voters. “reduce us to the The list of cities and suburbs includes those with a black majority. The list of rural counties and small status of a mon- towns is limited to jurisdictions where blacks comprise at least 75 percent of the population, based in grel, inferior race, all cases on the 2000 Census. Winning percentages are in bold type. A dash (-) indicates a candidate was not on the ballot. An asterisk (*) indicates the percentage is for the entire “Other” vote, the mixed in blood, bulk of which went for Thurmond but is not separable; “n/a” means the Thurmond vote was not our Anglo-Saxon available. heritage a mock- ery.” Black Change Total % of Thurmond Wallace G. Bush G.W. in GOP And in his accep- Pop. Pop. % % % Bush % %, tance speech, 1988- Thurmond 2000 2000 1948 1968 1988 2000 2000 warned there Urban Black were “not enough Majority troops in the army to force the Washington, D.C. 572,059 60% - - 14% 9% - 5% Southern people Orleans Parish, La. to break down (New Orleans) 484,674 67% 41% 33% 35% 22% -13% segregation and Baltimore, Md. 651,154 64% n/a 13% 25% 14% -11% admit the Negro Hinds Co., Miss. race into our (Jackson) 250,800 61% 90% 53% 56% 43% -13% swimming pools, St. Louis, Mo. 348,189 51% - 9% 27% 20% - 7% into our homes, Portsmouth, Va. 100,565 51% 10%* 32% 45% 36% - 9% and into our Richmond, Va. 197,790 57% 12%* 11% 42% 31% -11% churches.” Suburban Black Campaigning later Majority at a watermelon Clayton Co., Ga. 236,517 52% 23%* 50% 65% 33% -32% festival in North De Kalb Co., Ga. 665,865 54% 15%* 23% 49% 27% -22% Carolina, Thur- Prince George’s Co., Md. 801,515 63% n/a 19% 39% 19% -20% mond described Rural/Small Town - in apocryphal 75% Black Majority terms the likely Greene Co., Ala. 9,974 80% 95% 39% 24% 19% - 5% response to any Macon Co., Ala. 24,105 85% 91% 25% 17% 12% - 5% attempt to impose racial integration Hancock Co., Ga. 10,076 78% 28%* 30% 24% 22% - 2% on the South: Claiborne Co., Miss. 11,831 84% 96% 33% 28% 19% - 9% “Lawlessness Holmes Co., Miss. 21,609 79% 96% 41% 34% 26% - 8% will be rampant. Jefferson Co., Miss. 9,740 87% 97% 33% 21% 18% - 3% Chaos will prevail. Petersburg, Va. 33,740 79% 16%* 19% 34% 19% -15%

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 12 Our streets will be unsafe. And there will be the greatest breakdown of law enforcement in the history of the nation.” The meaning of the States Rights’ campaign for Thurmond and other Southern whites who endorsed it was probably best summarized by John Ed Pearce, a writer for the Louisville Cou- rier-Journal: Thurmond “is not the classic race-hater,” Pearce wrote in 1948. “He is a man deeply troubled by threat of social change that would destroy a way of life to which he is accustomed, and raise into a position of legal equality a people he has been reared to regard as inferior.” It was no accident that the States’ Rights ticket paired two Deep South governors, Thurmond of South Carolina and Fielding Wright of Mississippi. According to the 1950 Census, their two states had the highest proportion of blacks in the country. And support for the Dixiecrats was strongest in the Deep South, where the black population was large and concern about maintaining white supremacy was high. The potent combination of race and the Democratic Party ballot line enabled Thurmond to win huge majorities in Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina, and to carry Louisiana with a com- fortable plurality of the vote. But Thurmond was not a significant factor in the rest of the South, where Truman had the Demo- cratic line and the black population was lower. And the Dixiecrats were not a factor at all outside of the South, where they made little effort and polled less than 5,000 of their 1,169,114 votes. Ultimately, Thurmond’s candidacy failed to thwart the reelection of Truman in 1948. But it did break the Democratic lock on the Solid South that the Republicans were subsequently able to exploit – rather quickly at the presidential level, more slowly at the congressional level.

The South and Congress: A Latecomer to the GOP Side Over the last half century, the GOP has gone from being a party that essentially ignored the South to one that is highly dependent on it. The transformation did not come as quickly at the congressional level as it did in presidential politics. Republican candidates for the White House have won a majority of Southern states in all but one election since 1968, yet the party did not capture a majority of Southern seats in both the House and Senate until 1994. Still, the region is every bit as critical to Republican control on Capitol Hill these days as it is to GOP possession of the White House. Just as George W. Bush needed to sweep every electoral vote from the South in 2000 to narrowly win the presidency, Republicans need their large cadre of Southern members to maintain their majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. For if it was left to the rest of the country, Republicans would be down by five seats to the Dem- ocrats in the Senate and down by four seats in the House, even with the GOP’s 2002 election gains. The South’s importance to congressional Republicans has been reflected in the party’s leader- ship in both chambers. When the GOP won the House in 1994, Republican members installed Newt Gingrich of Georgia as speaker. When Gingrich stepped down after unexpected Republican losses in the 1998 election, the speakership was set to go to Bob Livingston of Louisiana, until his candidacy was undone by Livingston’s admission of marital infidelity. After that, Dennis Hastert of Illinois was elected speaker, but the post of House majority leader then and now was held by a Texan, currently Tom DeLay.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 13 On the Senate side, Bob Dole of Kansas became the majority leader when Republicans won control of the Senate in 1994. But when Dole quit the Senate in June 1996 to focus on his Republican House Seats in the South at struggling presidential campaign, his leader- Key Points Since 1952 ship post was won by Trent Lott of Missis- Republican House strength in the South has increased ninefold since the GOP sippi. When Lott was won both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in 1952. Then, eight Southern states did forced to step down not have a single Republican representative. late last year in the Now, nine Southern states have delegations with a GOP majority, and in recent wake of the Strom years the Republicans’ growing edge in House seats across the region has Thurmond imbroglio, become critical to the GOP maintaining a House majority. The charts in this Republicans turned section are based on data published in America Votes 24 and Congressional to another son of the Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections, Vol. II (both published by CQ Press). South, Bill Frist of Tennessee, to be their 1952 1964 1980 1994 2000 2002 Senate leader. And Alabama 053355 at his right hand as majority whip is Mitch Arkansas 002211 McConnell of neigh- Florida 024151518 boring Kentucky. Georgia 011788 In short, it is not your Kentucky 213455 grandfather’s GOP Louisiana 002354 these days on Capitol Mississippi 012122 Hill. When Dwight North Carolina 124877 Eisenhower brought Republican congres- Oklahoma 111554 sional majorities with South Carolina 004444 him to Washington Tennessee 233554 after the 1952 election, Texas 005111315 the party’s Southern Virginia 329568 component was literally a corporal’s guard. Republicans 9 18 43 73 81 85 The Republicans’ huge Democrats 111 101 78 64 55 57 majority of seats out- Independents - - - - 1 - side the South barely Southern Advantage D + 102 D + 83 D + 35 R + 9 R + 26 R + 28 covered their dearth (in seats) of strength inside the National Advantage R + 8 D + 155 D + 51 R + 26 R + 9 R + 24 region – where they (in seats) held just nine of 120 House seats and one of 26 Senate seats (that of John Sherman Cooper of Kentucky). Back then, the party’s slim array of Southern congressional seats was limited to the fringes of the region, such as Oklahoma and the suburbs of Northern Virginia, as well as the historically Republican mountain areas of states such as Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia, where there was strong sympathy for the Union during the Civil War and loyalty to the GOP continued afterward. Now, Republicans control the House delegations in nine Southern states and hold both Senate seats in seven. But it is not so solid a South for the Republicans as it once was for the Democrats. That

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 14 was underscored in the runoff elections in Louisiana in December, when Democrats won an open GOP House seat and reelected Mary Landrieu to the Senate in spite of a concerted Republican blitz against her that featured President Bush. Landrieu pulled 52% of the runoff vote, 7 percentage points better than Al Gore when he lost the Bayou State to Bush in 2000, 2 points better than Landrieu’s showing when she first won the Senate seat in 1996, and the same percentage as Bill Clinton’s winning share in the Louisiana presidential vote the same year. Clinton’s showing, in turn, marked the highest percentage for any Democratic presidential candidate in the state since 1952. South Cornerstone of Recent GOP House Majorities The GOP growth at the congressional level in the South has lagged behind the party’s success in presidential elections. But of late Republicans have enjoyed hegemony across the region at both levels.

In 1990, more Republican House members were from the Midwest than any other region. But since 1992, the South has been the leading provider of GOP seats and the party has continued to gain members in the region since it won a House majority in 1994. GOP House Seats South % of Election Election Highlights South Non-South Total All GOP Seats Ike’s coattails help GOP win both ends of 1952 9 212 221 4% Pensylvania Avenue 1964 18 122 140 13% Goldwater runs… GOP reaches postwar House nadir Reagan wins… GOP hits post-Watergate, pre-’94 1980 43 149 192 22% high in House 1994 73 157 230 32% GOP gains House majority for first time since ‘52 2000 81 140 221 37% G.W. Bush elected along with GOP Congress GOP scores rare midterm gains to pad House 2002 85 144 229 37% majority

The 108th Congress: No South, No GOP Control Without their top-heavy majorities in the South, Republicans would not control either side of Capitol Hill. They would be four seats down in the House and five seats down in the Senate.

Of the other three regions, Republicans have an advantage in House seats only in the Midwest, and an edge in Senate seats only in the West. In the Northeast, the Democrats hold a majority of both House and Senate seats.

Governorships are pretty evenly divided between the two parties in all regions of the country, with neither the Democrats or Republicans possessing less than five seats or more than seven in any region. HOUSE SENATE GOVERNORS Plurality Plurality Plurality Regions Reps. Dems. Ind. (in seats) Reps. Dems. Ind. (in seats) Reps. Dems. (in seats) SOUTH 85 57 - R + 28 17 9 - R + 8 7 6 R + 1 Midwest 61 39 - R + 22 11 13 - D + 2 5 7 D + 2 West 46 52 - D + 6 16 10 - R + 6 7 6 R + 1 Northeast 37 57 1 D + 20 7 16 1 D + 9 7 5 R + 2 National 229 205 1 R + 24 51 48 1 R + 3 26 24 R + 2 South vs. Rest of Country SOUTH 85 57 - R + 28 17 9 - R + 8 7 6 R + 1 Non-South 144 148 1 D + 4 34 39 1 D + 5 19 18 R + 1 National 229 205 1 R + 24 51 48 1 R + 3 26 24 R + 2

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 15 The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress Even before the 108th Congress offi cially convened in early January, several changes in its membership had already taken place. Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski was elected governor of Alaska in November and the following month appointed his daughter, Lisa, an Alaska state representative, to fi ll the fi nal two years of his term. On Jan. 4, Rep. Ed Case won his second special election in fi ve weeks to fi ll the vacancy in the Hawaii 2nd District created last fall by the death of veteran Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink. Case’s fi rst special election victory Nov. 30 fi lled Mink’s seat for the fi nal weeks of her term in the 107th Congress. Date and Event House of Representatives Senate

R D Ind. Vac. R D Ind. Vac. Nov. 5, 2002 - ELECTION 229 205 1 51 48 1 Sept. 28, 2002 - Rep. Patsy T. Mink (D-Hawaii 2) dies but is elected 229 204 1 1 posthumously to her seat Dec. 2, 2002 - Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) resigns to become governor 50 48 1 1 Dec. 20, 2002 - Lisa Murkowski (R) appointed to ﬁ ll her father’s Senate seat 51 48 1 Jan. 4, 2003 - Special election in Hawaii 2nd won by Ed Case (D) 229 205 1 What’s up in 2003 Three gubernatorial races headline the election calendar in 2003, although the only balloting thus far this year has been a special congressional election in Hawaii’s 2nd District to fill the vacancy created last fall by the death of Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink.

For the second time in barely a month, her seat was won by Democrat Ed Case, a former state representative and cousin of outgoing AOL-Time Warner chairman Steve Case. On Nov. 30, Case won a special election to fill the remaining weeks of Mink’s term in the 107th Congress, finishing first in a field of 38 candidates that featured the congresswoman’s widower, John Mink.

On Jan. 4, Case won another special election to fill the seat in the 108th Congress, which Rep. Mink had won posthumously in last November’s general election. Case ran first in a field of 44 candidates, beating the runner-up, former state Sen. Matt Matsunaga, by a margin of 13 percentage points (43%-to-30%). In both elections, all candidates ran together on the same ballot regardless of party, with the high vote-getter winning the seat regardless of percentage. As in the earlier special election, the vast majority of ballots were cast for Democratic candidates. The top Republican candidate in the January special election finished a distant fourth with 6% of the vote. The results below are based on official returns from that contest, with only Case’s winning percentage indicated.

Meanwhile, all three gubernatorial races this year should be competitive. Democrat Paul Patton in Kentucky and Republican Mike Foster in Louisiana are term-limited, so the races in their states are open. Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi can seek reelection, but faces a prospective challenge from former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour. Barbour last ran for elective office in his home state in 1982 when he unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Sen. John Stennis. It was the last time that Republicans have lost a Senate race in Mississippi.

An asterisk (*) indicates that the runoff provision in Kentucky is relatively new, has never been employed, and may be rescinded before the primary this spring. Current Kentucky law provides for a runoff between the top two candidates if no candidates attains 40% of the vote in their party’s primary. In Louisiana and Mississippi, a runoff is triggered if no candidate reaches 50% of the vote, although in Louisiana the runoff would also serve as a general election since candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot in October. Governorships Incumbent Primary Runoff General Election Kentucky Paul Patton (D) May 20 June 24* Nov. 4 Louisiana Mike Foster (R) Oct. 4 Nov. 15 - Mississippi Ronnie Musgrove (D) Aug. 5 Aug. 26 Nov. 4 Special House Elections Percent of Total Vote Former Member New Member Election Turnout Dem. Rep. Other Hawaii 2nd Patsy Mink (D) Ed Case (D) Jan. 4 75,574 43.2% --

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 16 What’s up in 2004

2000 Presidential Winner House Seats State Senators Governors (and margin of victory) RDI Alabama Bush by 15% 5 2 Richard Shelby (R) Alaska Bush by 31% 1 Lisa Murkowski (R) Arizona Bush by 6% 6 2 John McCain (R) Arkansas Bush by 6% 1 3 Blanche Lincoln (D) California Gore by 12% 20 33 Barbara Boxer (D) Colorado Bush by 8% 5 2 Ben Campbell (R) Connecticut Gore by 18% 3 2 Christopher Dodd (D) Delaware Gore by 13% 1 Ruth Ann Minner (D) Florida Bush by 0.01% 18 7 Bob Graham (D) Georgia Bush by 12% 8 5 Zell Miller (D) Hawaii Gore by 18% 2 Daniel Inouye (D) Idaho Bush by 40% 2 Michael Crapo (R) Illinois Gore by 12% 10 9 Peter Fitzgerald (R) Indiana Bush by 16% 6 3 Evan Bayh (D) Frank O’Bannon (D) Iowa Gore by 0.3% 4 1 Charles Grassley (R) Kansas Bush by 21% 3 1 Sam Brownback (R) Kentucky Bush by 15% 5 1 Jim Bunning (R) Paul Patton (D)* Louisiana Bush by 8% 4 3 John Breaux (D) Mike Foster (R)* Maine Gore by 5% 2 Maryland Gore by 16% 2 6 Barbara Mikulski (D) Massachusetts Gore by 27% 10 Michigan Gore by 5% 9 6 Minnesota Gore by 2% 4 4 Mississippi Bush by 17% 2 2 Ronnie Musgrove (D)* Missouri Bush by 3% 5 4 Christopher Bond (R) Bob Holden (D) Montana Bush by 25% 1 Judy Martz (R) Nebraska Bush by 29% 3 Nevada Bush by 4% 2 1 Harry Reid (D) New Hampshire Bush by 1% 2 Judd Gregg (R) Craig Benson (R) New Jersey Gore by 16% 6 7 New Mexico Gore by 0.1% 2 1

The Rhodes Cook Letter • February 2003 17 2000 Presidential Winner House Seats State Senators Governors (and margin of victory) RDI New York Gore by 25% 10 19 Charles Schumer (D) North Carolina Bush by 13% 7 6 John Edwards (D) Mike Easley (D) North Dakota Bush by 28% 1 Byron Dorgan (D) John Hoeven (R) Ohio Bush by 4% 12 6 George Voinovich (R) Oklahoma Bush by 22% 4 1 Don Nickles (R) Oregon Gore by 0.5% 1 4 Ron Wyden (D) Pennsylvania Gore by 4% 12 7 Arlen Specter (R) Rhode Island Gore by 29% 2 South Carolina Bush by 16% 4 2 Ernest Hollings (D) South Dakota Bush by 23% 1 Tom Daschle (D) Tennessee Bush by 4% 4 5 Texas Bush by 21% 15 17 Utah Bush by 41% 2 1 Robert Bennett (R) Michael Leavitt (R) Vermont Gore by 10% 1 Patrick Leahy (D) Jim Douglas (R) Virginia Bush by 8% 8 3 Washington Gore by 6% 3 6 Patty Murray (D) Gary Locke (D) West Virginia Bush by 6% 1 2 Bob Wise (D) Wisconsin Gore by 0.2% 4 4 Russell Feingold (D) Wyoming Bush by 40% 1

Dist. of Col Gore by 76%

NATIONAL Gore by 0.5% 229 205 1 34 Up (19 D, 15 R) 14 Up (8D, 6R) Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that the next gubernatorial election is in 2003. Three states - Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi - elect governors this fall. Although Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote in the 2000 presidential vote, Republican George W. Bush won the all- important electoral vote, 271-to-266, with one Democratic elector casting a blank ballot.

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