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Conservative and Evangelical Leaders From: Mark

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Conservative and Evangelical Leaders From: Mark To: Conservative and Evangelical Leaders From: Mark DeMoss Date: January 18, 2011 Subject: A New Litmus Test for 2012 _________________________________________________________________________ Happy New Year! One of the things I like about the period between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day is the time it gives me to think—think about my family, my business, and yes, politics. Perhaps like you, I have spent considerable time recently thinking about the 2012 presidential election and decided to share some thoughts with conservative and evangelical leaders and friends. I supported Mitt Romney in 2008. Having had two more years to consider that decision I will be supporting him again, should he decide to run. Here’s how I arrived at that decision— see if this makes sense for you. First, I’ve arrived at four conclusions: 1. The job of president requires leadership, management, and intellectual skills and experience in greater capacity than ever before. Our federal debt is approaching $14 trillion, and should a Republican win the office next year, that number could hit $20 trillion by the end of their administration. (Arguably, no one in either party is fully capable of resolving many of the challenges we face as a nation.) 2. There will be several, perhaps many, candidates seeking the Republican nomination who share our values. 3. The next presidential election will be the most expensive ever (the 2008 campaign marked the first time presidential candidates raised more than $1 billion). 4. We can make a difference in the outcome if we get involved early. Candidates Who Share Our Values: Anyone looking for a candidate who shares their values about life, marriage, character and integrity will likely find there will be many, perhaps as many as a dozen candidates, who are acceptable, even attractive to people of faith. Based on early reports, these include: . Haley Barbour . Herman Cain . Mitch Daniels . Newt Gingrich . Mike Huckabee . Bobby Jindal . Sarah Palin A New Litmus Test for 2012 January 18, 2011 Page 2 . Tim Pawlenty . Mike Pence . Mitt Romney . Rick Santorum . John Thune Now, I recognize any number of those I’ve listed may decide not to run for president—and others who I’ve not listed may choose to enter the race. But regardless, there will certainly be more than one candidate who would pass the “values test” many conservative and “values voters” use as something of a litmus test for presidential candidates. Three Critical Questions: So, if several candidates share my values, that begs three questions: 1. Who is most capable of winning the Republican nomination? 2. Who is most capable of mounting the kind of campaign (raising money, recruiting staff and volunteers, presenting a clear message) necessary to upset a sitting president? 3. Who is most capable of actually being the president of the United States—governing and serving as the CEO of the largest enterprises on the planet? In other words, as I look at a list of potential candidates I’m asking about each one: Can he/she win the nomination; can he/she win the general election; and can he/she run the country? Some Answers: In the 2008 election cycle GOP nominee John McCain raised $368 million ($84 million of which was from federal matching funds) in his run against Barack Obama, who raised $730 million. (Hillary Clinton raised $221 million.) Mitt Romney raised $107 million during the primary cycle. The rest of the list looked like this: . Rudy Giuliani: $59 million . Ron Paul: $34 million . Fred Thompson: $23 million . Mike Huckabee: $16 million . Tom Tancredo: $8 million . Sam Brownback: $4.2 million . Duncan Hunter: $3 million . Tommy Thompson: $1.2 million . Alan Keyes: $60,000 I realize many people don’t like placing importance on fundraising ability, but financing increasingly costly campaigns is simply a reality—ugly though it may be—of modern elections in America. For example, Carly Fiorina spent $21 million competing for Barbara A New Litmus Test for 2012 January 18, 2011 Page 3 Boxer’s California senate seat—and lost. Michelle Bachmann spent almost as much to retain a House seat in Minnesota—$13.5 million—as Mike Huckabee spent running for president. Being politically competitive is an expensive proposition! If those numbers don’t wake you up, try this one: Team Obama Begins Planning $1 Billion Reelection Campaign. I woke up to this headline in Politco just last week. So far I haven’t read or heard anyone suggest the president’s team won’t be able to raise that kind of money in the next two years. Most political observers and analysts, even Democratic ones, agree that Mitt Romney would mount the most competitive campaign war chest and organization. Financial filings for Political Action Committees (PACs) since the 2008 election also support that analysis. As a first-time candidate for president, Romney won 11 primaries and caucuses, second only to John McCain in a rather crowded field. ________________________ A national poll taken last month by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group found Mitt Romney as the favorite among a list of 12 potential candidates. Even The Washington Post last month handicapped the field of 10 candidates they consider “most likely to win the nomination” and ranked Romney first. In a poll in the important first presidential primary state commissioned by the New Hampshire Journal, voters of the granite state give the lead to Romney with 39 percent (Palin was second with 16%, Huckabee third with 10%). On January 6 National Journal released results of polling of Republican and Democratic “insiders.” Republicans were asked to “rank the top five candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of whom you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.” The index scores looked like this: . Mitt Romney 78 . Mitch Daniels 37 . Tim Pawlenty 33 . John Thune 32 . Sarah Palin 28 . Haley Barbour 24 . Mike Huckabee 21 . Newt Gingrich 16 . Rick Perry 6 . Jeb Bush 5 Perhaps, more interesting, was how Democratic insiders answered this question: “Who would be the Republicans’ strongest presidential nominee in 2012?” Answer: . Romney 24% . Daniels 17% . Bush 14% . Thune 11% . No one else was in double digits ___________________________ A New Litmus Test for 2012 January 18, 2011 Page 4 As for who is most capable of being president, I will offer the following: . As the CEO of Bain Capital and Bain & Company, Romney and his firms helped propel the success of hundreds of companies, from venture start-ups to the world’s largest corporations. If President Obama can be defeated in 2012, it will likely be because the U.S. economy is still in trouble. America will be looking for a president who understands, values and appreciates American business. Mitt Romney has been in government long enough to know how government works (four years as governor), but not so long that he only knows how to work for the government. This alone distinguishes him from the rest of the potential field. He earned an MBA and a law degree from Harvard—simultaneously. He was asked to rescue a winter Olympics mired in debt and scandal. As president of the Salt Lake City Games in 2002 he turned a $379 million operating deficit into one of the most profitable games ever—while organizing an unprecedented security operation just months following the Sept. 11 attack on our country. As a Republican governor of heavily Democratic Massachusetts he turned a $3 billion deficit into a nearly $1 billion surplus, without raising taxes or borrowing money—and without taking a salary. He was also chosen by his peers as Chairman of the Republican Governors Association (2006). A New Litmus Test: While the media and political commentators like to talk about litmus tests evangelicals and social conservatives typically impose on presidential candidates (usually referring to being pro-life), I’d like to propose a second litmus test for serious consideration—after, of course, verifying a candidate’s character, personal morality and values: . A candidate for president of the United States should be capable of becoming president, and then competent to be the president. Those who would suggest I am placing values on the back burner will be misreading me and wrong. I am only saying that a candidate’s values alone are not enough to get my vote. For example, my pastor shares my values, but I don’t want him to be my president. (By the way, “energizing a crowd” is also not enough; Justin Bieber can do that—but I don’t want him to be president either.) Making a Difference Now: So, how can we make a difference now? Realizing most of the people being mentioned as possible presidential candidates have little chance of winning a nomination given the compressed primary calendar and the high cost of competing; we can begin to mobilize support for one who can. Realizing that fewer still have a realistic shot at defeating President Obama, we can give someone who does a quicker path to the nomination so he has more time to mobilize a general election campaign operation with a chance of winning. A New Litmus Test for 2012 January 18, 2011 Page 5 This is essentially what happened for George W. Bush prior to the 2000 election cycle. He had so much early support and so many endorsements he was virtually unstoppable in his quest for the nomination—momentum which then carried him to victory over Al Gore. I have been encouraged by the number of people who, over the past two years, have told me that they voted for Mitt Romney, wish they had, or would like another opportunity to do so. Naturally, I wish more of these people had surfaced during the summer of 2008.
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