Wipro Ltd (WIPRO)
Wipro Ltd (WIPRO)
CMP: | 586 Target: | 670 (14%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD
July 16, 2021 Healthy Q1 performance, strong guidance…
About the stock: Wipro is an IT, Consulting & BPO catering to BFSI, health, Particulars
consumer, energy & utility, technology and communication. Particular Amount Market Capitalization (| Crore) 3,42,682.4 It has 190000 employees serving clients across six continents Total Debt (| Crore) 8,333.2
Consistent payout (~70%), healthy OCF to EBITDA ratio of ~89% Cash and Investments (| Crore) 34,956.4 EV (| Crore) 3,16,059.2 52 week H/L 589/ 252
Equity capital 1,143 Update Result Q1FY22 Results: Wipro reported robust Q1FY22 results Face value | 2
Revenues increased 12.0% QoQ in CC terms Shareholding pattern Wipro won eight large deals with TCV of US$715 million Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Guided for 5-7% QoQ growth in Q2FY22E Promoters 74.0 74.0 73.04 73.0 FII 7.8 8.4 8.46 9.2 DII 7.6 6.5 6.08 6.2 Public 10.5 11.1 12.42 11.6 What should investors do? Wipro’s share price has grown by ~3x over the past
five years (from ~| 210 in Jul 2016 to ~| 586 levels in July 2021). Price Chart However, recent run up in price prompts us to maintain HOLD 19,000 Target Price and Valuation: We value Wipro at | 670 i.e. 26x P/E on FY23E EPS 17,000 600 15,000 13,000 400 11,000 9,000 200 Key triggers for future price performance: 7,000 5,000 0
The strategy of new CEO to drive turnaround in the company
Jun-18 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-19
Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20
Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20
Mar-20 Mar-21 Restructuring of organisation, client mining, aspiration to win one large deal Mar-19 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) every quarter to drive growth
Higher penetration in Europe, client mining, acquisition of new logos and Research Equity Retail Recent Event & Key risks Key Financial & Valuation Summary traction in digital revenues to further boost revenue growth – Revenue growth of Q2FY22E is 5%-7% QoQ
Alternate Stock Idea: In our IT coverage we like Infosys. Key Risk: (i) Muted digital demand prospects, (ii) higher Key beneficiary of increased spend in digital technology and industry than anticipated growth in leading revenue growth margins.
Securities ICICI BUY with target price of |1,825 Research Analyst Key Financial & Valuation Summary Devang Bhatt [email protected]
Key Financial Summary s 5 year CAGR 2 year CAGR Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (FY16-FY21) (FY21-23E) Net Sales 58,052 61,340 62,241 4.0% 78,212 88,796 19.4% EBITDA 11,938 12,659 15,071 6.2% 17,806 21,456 19.3% EBITDA Margins (%) 20.6 20.6 24.2 22.8 24.2 Net Profit 9,003 9,722 10,795 4.0% 11,957 14,536 16.0% EPS (|) 14.9 16.6 19.1 21.1 25.7 P/E 39.2 35.2 30.7 27.7 22.8 RoNW (%) 15.8 17.4 19.5 21.6 26.3 RoCE (%) 17.8 19.3 21.3 22.8 27.5
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
Key takeaways of conference call
Out of the 12.2% QoQ growth, organic revenue growth was 4.9% QoQ while the rest was led by Capco. We believe organic revenue growth was boosted by Metro AG deal (~1.6%) Going forward, ramp up of deal win is expected to help drive revenues in Q2FY22E. Wipro guided that its Q2FY22E IT services revenues would be in the range of US$2,535 -2,583 million, translating to 5.0-7.0% QoQ growth. We believe the organic revenue growth could be in the range of 1.8-3.8% QoQ The company is winning multi-year deal and large deals, which is expected to drive growth. Based on deal wins, we expect Wipro to achieve the top end of the guidance. Further, we believe the company can clock ~14% organic growth in FY22E while the rest will be through acquisitions like Capco & Ampion We believe sustained traction in deal wins and a large deal win in each quarter will help Wipro to garner healthy revenue growth in the longer term. In addition, traction in digital technologies like cloud migration, hybrid cloud, cloud licensing, customer experience, cloud application and transformational deals is expected to lead to healthy growth in revenues In terms of verticals, the company is seeing healthy traction in BFSI, consumer and healthcare. We expect manufacturing and energy & utility to improve in coming quarters Margins dipped during the quarter due to wage hike and lower margins in Capco. Going forward, the company plans to give a second wage hike. In addition, the company is expected to see margin headwinds due to further dilution due to additional revenues of Capco, higher attrition and increase in discretionary cost (like travel cost). Hence, the company expects 17- 17.5% as sustainable margins We believe the company has levers like pyramid rationalisation, offshoring and automation. We assume a 150 bps YoY dip in FY22E to 18.3%. However, we expect an improvement of 130 bps YoY to 19.6% in FY23E led by operational efficiency Net utilisation (ex-trainees) increased 80 bps QoQ to 86.8%. Voluntary attrition (TTM) was up 3.4% to 15.5% Wipro has won eight large deals resulting in TCV booked of over US$715 million. The company has seen order book improving across verticals and geographies. Wipro has added 12,178 employees indicating robust revenue visibility and address attrition issue. The company will hire 6000 freshers in Q2FY22E
We believe the turnaround strategy of the new CEO will help it in achieving industry leading growth in longer run. Hence, we have a positive view on the company from a long term perspective.
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis EESes Q1FY22 Q1FY22E Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY21 QoQ (%) Comments
Dollar revenues increased 3.9% QoQ mainly led by Revenue 18,252 17,849 14,913 22.4 16,245 12.4 healthy growth in BFSI, E&U, communication & consumer business unit
Employee expenses 12,757 12,351 10,370 23.0 10,981 16.2
Gross Margin 5,496 5,498 4,543 21.0 5,265 4.4 Gross margin (%) 30.1 30.8 30.5 -35 bps 32.4 -230 bps Selling & marketing costs 1,302 1,182 979 33.0 1,068 21.9 G&A expenses 1,053 970 1,001 5.2 869 21.2 EBITDA 4,311 4,232 3,309 30.3 4,116 4.7 EBITDA Margin (%) 23.6 23.7 22.2 143 bps 25.3 -172 bps Depreciation 839 798 615 36.3 699 20.0 EBIT 3,472 3,435 2,694 28.9 3,417 1.6 Wage hike and lower margins in Capco led to a EBIT Margin (%) 19.0 19.2 18.1 96 bps 21.0 -201 bps decline in margins Other income 387 285 398 -2.7 333 16.5 PBT 3,859 3,719 3,092 24.8 3,749 2.9 Tax paid 623 849 684 -9.0 776 -19.7 PAT above our estimate due to lower-than- PAT 3,232 2,852 2,390 35.2 2,972 8.7 expected tax expenses
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E Comments (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Acquisition of Capco and healthy Revenue 75,600 78,212 3.5 86,377 88,796 2.8 organic growth prompt us to revise our revenue estimate upwards EBITDA 17,444 17,806 2.1 20,869.0 21,456 2.8 We expect margins to stabilise at EBITDA Margin (%) 23.1 22.8 -31 bps 24.2 24.2 0 bps 24.2% PAT 11,627 11,957 2.8 14,027.0 14,536 3.6 EPS (|) 20.5 21.1 2.8 24.8 25.7 3.6
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
Key Metrics
Exhibit 3: Geography-wise break-up Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Revenue by geography (%) Americas 59.5 59.8 58.5 58.5 58.1 Europe 26.7 26.1 28.0 28.4 30.2 RoW 13.8 14.1 13.5 13.1 11.7 The company has changed the way it reports Growth QoQ (%)- Constant currency geography as Americas 1 and Americas 2 for Americas -7.0 2.2 2.3 3.8 10.9 simplification purpose we have combined both as Europe -9.7 0.1 8.6 3.7 19.0 Americas and growth taken is average of two RoW -6.1 3.7 -0.3 -1.6 1.3
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 4: Vertical-wise break-up Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Revenue by strategic business units (%) Communications 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 BFSI 30.7 31.2 30.5 30.5 33.4 Manufacturing 8.1 8.2 8.3 7.9 7.0 Technology 13.5 12.5 12.6 13.4 12.2 Health Business Unit 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.0 11.9 Consumer Business Unit 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.0 17.3 The growth in the quarter was across verticals Energy,Natural Resources & Utilities 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.1 except E&U
Growth QoQ (%)- Constant currency Communications -16.2 4.6 0.7 -0.4 12.8 BFSI -6.4 3.7 1.2 2.7 22.4 Manufacturing -8.1 3.5 4.0 -1.1 -1.1 Technology -2.1 -4.7 4.5 9.9 2.7 Health Business Unit -7.2 4.1 5.0 -2.9 2.6 Consumer Business Unit -12.4 4.5 5.2 6.9 14.1 Energy,Natural Resources & Utilities -5.4 -2.4 4.1 2.7 11.1
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: Client & human resource matrix Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Client metrics $1 mn Clients 577 573 567 566 601 $10 mn Clients 163 166 168 167 176 The company saw healthy client addition in US$100 $50 mn Clients 39 39 38 40 42 million and US$50 million. However, rising attrition $75 mn Clients 22 24 24 27 27 is a cause of concern $100 mn Clients 13 11 10 11 13
Headcount, Utilization & Attrition Closing employee count 181804 185243 190308 197712 209890 Net Utilization (Excluding trainees) 84.5 86.9 86.3 86.0 86.8 Voluntary Attrition LTM 13.0 11.0 11.0 12.1 15.5
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
Financial summary
Exhibit 6: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 7: Cash flow statement | crore FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Total Revenues 61,340 62,241 78,212 88,796 PAT before minority int. 9,771 10,866 12,032 14,615 Growth (%) 5.7 1.5 25.7 13.5 Depreciation 2,086 2,766 3,520 4,085 COGS 43,609 42,321 54,131 60,728 (inc)/dec in Current Assets (481) 1,352 (5,430) (1,764) Other Expenditure 5,187 4,842 6,672 6,793 (inc)/dec in current Liabilities (1,897) 940 4,873 (51) EBITDA 12,659 15,071 17,806 21,456 Taxes paid (638) (2,492) (3,545) (4,307) Growth (%) 6.0 19.1 18.2 20.5 Depreciation 2,086 2,765 3,520 4,085 CF from operations 10,064 14,755 13,437 15,068 Other Income 2,408 2,091 2,000 2,259 Other Investments 5,624 2,656 2,000 2,259 Exchange difference - - - - (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (2,223) (1,882) (14,078) (3,996) Net interest expense (733) (509) (722) (722) Pft. from associates 3 13 13 13 CF from investing Activities 3,401 774 (12,078) (1,737) PBT 12,251 13,901 15,578 18,921 Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 1 1 - - Growth (%) 6.1 13.5 12.1 21.5 Inc / (Dec) in sec.loan Funds (2,604) 621 3,500 - Tax 2,480 3,035 3,545 4,307 Dividend + Buyback (11,819) (12,640) (12,679) (15,258) PAT before Minority int, 9,771 10,866 12,032 14,615 Minority int. 50 72 75 79 CF from Financial Activities (15,100) (12,884) (9,179) (15,258) PAT 9,722 10,795 11,957 14,536 Exchange rate differences 192 (89) 267 267 EPS 16.6 19.1 21.1 25.7 Opening cash balance 15,853 14,410 16,979 9,426 EPS (Growth %) 11.2 14.7 10.8 21.6 Closing cash 14,450 16,979 9,426 7,766
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 8: Balance sheet | crore Exhibit 9: Key ratios FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Liabilities Per share data (|) Equity 1,143 1,096 1,096 1,096 EPS 16.6 19.1 21.1 25.7 Reserves & Surplus 54,603 54,214 54,214 54,214 BV 95.3 97.7 97.7 97.7 Networth 55,746 55,310 55,310 55,310 DPS 1.0 1.0 16.9 20.5 Minority Interest 188 150 225 304 Operating Ratios Debt - long term 484 746 4,246 4,246 EBIT Margin 17.2 19.8 18.3 19.6 Debt - short term 7,320 7,587 7,587 7,587 PAT Margin 15.8 17.3 15.3 16.4 Deffered Tax Liability 283 463 463 463 Debtor days 66 58 62 56 Other liabilities & provisions 3,367 3,471 3,480 3,480 Creditor days 46 46 52 42 Source of funds 67,387 67,727 71,311 71,390 Return Ratios (%) RoE 17.4 19.5 21.6 26.3 Assets RoCE 19.3 21.3 22.8 27.5 Goodwill 13,101 13,913 13,913 13,913 RoIC 31.4 37.6 32.5 38.1 Intangible Assets 1,636 1,309 2,048 2,041 Valuation Ratios (x) PPE 9,787 10,161 19,981 19,898 P/E 35.2 30.7 27.7 22.8 O.non current assets 3,524 3,803 3,803 3,803 EV / EBITDA 25.0 21.0 18.4 15.3 Investments 1,069 1,204 1,217 1,230 EV / Net Sales 5.2 5.1 4.2 3.7 Debtors 11,052 9,866 13,277 13,727 Market Cap / Sales 5.6 5.5 4.4 3.9 Cash & Cash equivalents 14,450 16,979 9,426 7,766 Price to Book Value 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 Investments - short term 19,266 17,977 17,977 17,977 Solvency Ratios O.current assets 7,822 7,932 9,951 11,265 Debt/EBITDA 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 Trade Payable 7,813 7,887 11,244 10,219 Debt / Equity 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 OCL & Provisions 6,506 7,530 9,037 10,011 Current Ratio 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 Application of funds 67,387 67,727 71,311 71,390 Quick Ratio 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 10: ICICI Direct coverage universe (IT) EPS (|) P/E (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Company Cmp (|) TP (|) Rating Mcap (| Cr) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22 FY23 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY20 FY22E FY23E E E HCL Tech (HCLTEC) 1,029 1,110 Buy 2,79,140 40.8 45.8 52.3 60.9 25 22 20 17 23.0 23.5 24.7 25.5 21.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 Infosys (INFTEC) 1,569 1,825 Buy 6,68,329 38.9 45.5 54.8 64.3 40 34 29 24 30.8 31.7 34.0 37.0 25.2 25.2 27.8 30.3 TCS (TCS) 3,206 3,800 Buy 11,86,220 86.2 86.7 108.3 127.2 37 37 30 25 44.4 45.9 50.9 54.0 38.4 37.5 43.0 45.3 Tech M (TECMAH) 1,103 1,120 Buy 1,06,711 59.5 50.2 60.1 70.2 19 22 18 16 18.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 17.5 17.8 19.1 19.9 Wipro (WIPRO) 586 670 Hold 3,42,682 16.6 19.1 21.1 25.7 35 31 28 23 19.3 21.3 22.8 27.5 17.4 19.5 21.6 26.3 Mindtree (MINCON) 2,727 3,065 Buy 44,945 38.3 67.4 81.1 95.8 71 40 34 28 23.0 32.5 33.1 33.1 20.0 25.7 25.9 25.7 LTI (LTINFC) 4,351 4,580 Buy 76,021 86.6 110.3 130.5 151.6 50 39 33 29 30.7 31.9 32.1 31.7 28.1 26.5 26.6 26.2 Coforge (NIITEC) 4,561 3,985 Buy 27,641 71.4 73.3 109.0 131.0 64 62 42 35 23.0 23.6 27.6 28.6 18.5 19.2 24.7 25.5 Infoedge (INFEDG) 5,250 5,740 Buy 67,507 26.8 21.2 33.3 47.1 196 248 158 111 18.0 7.7 12.4 16.2 13.5 6.0 9.3 12.2 Teamlease (TEASER) 3,821 4,205 Buy 6,533 20.5 45.3 58.8 92.6 187 84 65 41 15.0 14.2 14.3 18.5 6.5 11.6 13.8 18.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
RATING RATIONALE ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7 Result Update | Wipro Ltd ICICI Direct Research
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I/We, Devang Bhatt, PGDBM, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8