Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council

Home , East Riding of Yorkshire

HULL CITY COUNCIL AND EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE COUNCIL CITY OF HULL and EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE EMISSION REDUCTION PATHWAYS SCOPE OF WORKS Version 3.0 | 31 st July 2020

1. Background The UK amended the Climate Change Act in 2019 to set a net-zero by 2050 target. The strengthened target reflects the necessity of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°. The imperative of limiting global warming to within these parameters was outlined in the Paris Agreement and reinforced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C 1. Hull City Council is the unitary local authority for the city of Hull covering 27.59 square miles and is an urban authority fronting the Humber Estuary with one of the UKs primary sea ports and location for international businesses such as RB and Smith and Nephew. In March 2019 the City Council declared a climate emergency setting a target for the city to become carbon neutral by 2030 covering both production and consumption emissions. The East Riding of Yorkshire Council is the unitary local authority for the East Riding of Yorkshire covering an area of 930 square miles of mainly rural farming landscape including market and coastal towns (e.g. Beverley, Driffield and Bridlington), villages, 53 miles of coastline and the Yorkshire Wolds. The Humber Local Enterprise Partnership, covering the four unitary authorities surrounding the Humber Estuary (Hull, East Riding, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire), agreed a 2040 carbon neutral target which is enshrined in the draft Humber Local Industrial Strategy. As part of the devolution agenda Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council are exploring the potential for a combined authority approach. This tender, therefore, focuses on identifying the decarbonisation pathways, required activity and timescales in which the city of Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire could decarbonise across the sectors of power, buildings, industry, transport and land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). This will take into consideration the unique characteristics of Hull and East Riding, their role as the main economic engines for the wider urban and rural area and the principle commuter satellite villages and towns that serve Hull and the key towns and villages in East Riding. It is important for the project to demonstrate how Hull City Council area can meet its 2030 carbon neutral target and how Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council can meet the Humber LEP 2040.

2. Context Energy Strategies The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) provided funding in 2017 for all Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) to produce local energy strategies including the Humber LEP.

1 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ 2

The aims of the energy strategies were to: • Identify the energy opportunities and challenges across whole LEP areas, for power, heat and transport. • Set out energy demand and carbon emissions trajectories. • Identify a pipeline of low carbon energy projects. • Assess the economic potential associated with the transformation to a low- carbon economy and inform Local Industrial Strategies. • Determine how strategies will be delivered, including priorities and actions for LEPs and their partners. • Provide a valuable evidence base for use by central government. The energy strategy produced for the Humber LEP 2 identified several priorities and interventions and these act as the starting point for action to address the climate emergency across Hull. However, not all of the actions identified had a Hull or East Riding focus and therefore a more bespoke analysis will be needed as part of this tender. Carbon Budgets Work undertaken by the University of Leeds has identified that the city of Hull has a carbon budget of 10,400kt CO 2e3 to 2050 to stay within the Paris Agreement global budget based upon a per capita 4 pro rata. At the current rate of emissions Hull would use the budget up within the next 9 years. Therefore, to achieve a progressive carbon reduction for a 95% reduction by 2050 would equate to a 7.7% year on year carbon reduction with the majority of carbon reduction required to be delivered within the next ten years (77% reduction on 2005 figures by 2030). Therefore, the carbon budget figure will need to be used to frame the pathways for Hull for 2030 and 2040. The East Riding of Yorkshire has to date not had a carbon budget established for 2050, however, based upon the methodology within the University of Leeds work for Hull and the population of the East Riding of Yorkshire of 339,614 5 an estimated carbon budget for the East Riding of Yorkshire through to 2050 is 13,500kt CO 2e. There is a need to ensure that these are robust and relevant carbon budgets for base the pathways analysis upon.

Low Carbon and Industrial Strategy Workshops

2 https://www.humberlep.org/infrastructure/energy/ 3 Gouldson, A. Sudmant, A. Duncan, A. (2019). “A summary carbon roadmap for Hull City Council”. Place-based Climate Action Network, https://pcancities.org.uk/ 4 Population in 2019 for Hull estimated at 260,938 https://ukpopulation2019.com/population-of- kingston-upon-hull-2019.html 5 https://intel-hub.eastriding.gov.uk/east-riding-profile/ 3

During the preparation of the Humber LEP Energy Strategy and Local Industrial Strategy a number of workshops and reports where produced. There identified across a number of areas potential decarbonisation activity and insight into sequestration benefits. This data provides a knowledge baseline that will support further pathway analysis for the city of Hull and East Riding.

Aims and Objectives This project is part of the city of Hull’s and East Ridings work in determining how it can achieve the targets and remain within the carbon budgets indicated by the University of Leeds and comply with the Paris Agreement. It aims to understand the different ways in which Hull can achieve net-zero carbon by 2030 and 2040 and East Riding by 2040 and remain within the respective carbon budgets of 10,400kt CO 2e and 13,500kt CO 2e. This is to look at scenarios that extend out known technology that is 100% deployable today and ones that look at technologies that are still at pre-scale deployment (e.g. CCUS, BECCS & hydrogen). The project also aims to influence the future direction of the two authorities e.g. investments, infrastructure provision, business support mechanisms, to deliver against the carbon reduction targets. The aim of the project is: • To develop emission reduction pathways for the power, buildings, industry, transport, and land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors that enable Hull and the East Riding to meet the emission reduction targets and remain within the carbon budgets that comply with the Paris Agreement. The objectives of the project are: • Review existing policies, strategies, programmes and projects for information to be included in the emission reduction pathways. • Agree with the project team the assumptions and interventions that will used in the emission reduction pathways and document these. • Produce a business as usual (BAU) emission pathway for the power, buildings, industrial, transport, and LULUCF sectors. • Produce at least three different emission reduction scenarios for the power, buildings, industrial, transport, and LULUCF sectors. • Produce a roadmap relating to each emission reduction pathway, including timescales, milestones and key decision points. • Identify and document the roles of different stakeholders in the development and delivery of interventions identified in the emission reduction pathways.

• Identify and document recommendations, both policy and interventions, based on the outputs of the objectives above.

3. Methodology and Tasks We expect this project to involve drawing together a wide range of evidence and expertise in order to identify robust emission reduction pathways and scenarios that are grounded in the place based characteristics of Hull and the East Riding. The project represents an important piece of work for the city of Hull and East Riding and will act to inform the interventions and investments that are implemented to address the climate change, but also act to shape the future direction of infrastructure and funding, and current and future policy development in the city of Hull and East Riding and with regional partners and Government. The pathways should be disaggregated for both local authority areas recognising the unique characteristics and challenges that both authorities face. The pathways should highlight the points for joint intervention by the authorities within the outcomes that recognises the significant economic overlap between Hull and the East Riding. Specific tasks Work Package 1. Develop emission reduction pathways for Hull and East Riding that demonstrates how the target dates can be achieved within the carbon budget. For this task we require at least three emission reduction pathways for the city of Hull and East Riding to be modelled. Each pathway should be made up of scenarios for the power, buildings, industry, transport, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. The pathways must be informed by the scenarios for each sector. In delivering this task consultants are required to: • Produce a business as usual (BAU) emissions pathway for Hull and East Riding which forecasts emissions from each of the power, buildings, industry, transport and LULUCF sectors. In developing the BAU pathway consultants should: o Take into consideration all current and announced policies at a national and regional level and cover the period up to 2040. We will provide a list of the local and relevant regional policies that should be included in the pathway to the winning tenderer. o Calculate the overall cost and cost to consumers in Hull and East Riding of the BAU pathway. This is the counterfactual on which to compare the scenarios against. • Produce at least three scenarios for each of the power, buildings, industry, transport and LULUCF sectors. In developing the scenarios consultants should:

o Utilise the existing evidence base to inform the interventions that are included in the scenario modelling e.g. CCC Net Zero Report 6 and UK FRES Absolute Zero 7 . We will provide a list of the local and relevant regional interventions that have been identified for potential inclusion in the scenarios to the winning tenderer. o Demonstrate the emission reduction potential of the individual interventions that collectively make up the sectoral scenarios. The deployment potential of interventions must be grounded in the unique characteristics, context and deployment potential of Hull and East Riding. o Apply levels of confidence to the interventions and levels of deployment that comprise the scenarios. For example solar PV and wind could be part of a core scenario due to their technology maturity whereas small modular reactors/CCS/hydrogen may form part of a speculative scenario due to their lack of project development and commercialisation. o Ensure compatibility between the sectoral scenarios. For example if heat pumps are considered to be an intervention in the buildings sector scenarios then we would expect the electricity demand created to be factored into the power sector scenarios. o Place the scenarios within the context of achieving the Hull and Humber target dates and budget. It will not be acceptable for scenarios to be placed within the context of a different date or carbon budget unless agreed at the start of the project with both local authorities. o Estimate the costs and benefits per sector and measure for each scenario. Calculations of cost should take into consideration the avoided costs from climate damage, adaptation and other damage e.g. poor air quality. Furthermore, calculations of cost should be compared against the cost counterfactual of the BAU emission pathway. o Identify, for each scenario, the barriers that need to be overcome, any uncertainties and the key policy implications for delivery. o Undertake interviews with key stakeholders to validate the assumptions used in the scenarios. We will provide a list a key stakeholders who should be engaged in the validation exercise to the winning tenderer but the tenderer is able to use, in addition, external experts with proven knowledge and experience. • Agree all assumptions and interventions to be used in the BAU and sector scenarios with the project steering group. To ensure transparency we require all assumptions and interventions to be recorded in MS Word or MS Excel and be made available, unlocked, at the end of the project.

6 Committee on Climate Change (2019) Net Zero: The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming 7 https://ukfires.org/absolute-zero/ 6

Work Package 2. Produce an implementation roadmap for the city of Hull and East Riding based on the outputs of Work Package 1. For this task we require a timeline of milestones associated with each of the sectoral scenarios and interventions to be developed and mapped up to 2030 and 2040 for Hull and 2040 for the East Riding. It is important that we are fully aware of the timings associated with the implementation of interventions to enable key decision makers to take a strategic approach to addressing the climate emergency. In delivering the task consultant(s) are required to: • Map the timescales, key decision points and required changes associated with the delivery of each intervention identified in the emission pathways. Where possible this should be linked to relevant timescales at different scales e.g. national policy decisions. Differentiation between key decision points and delivery should be explicit within the roadmap. Work Package 3. Produce policy recommendations and an action plan for the city of Hull and East Riding that will deliver the activity identified in the roadmap. For this task we require policy recommendations and a detailed action plan to be produced relating to the activity that should be delivered to enable the city of Hull targets and East Riding target to be delivered and budgets not exceeded. The recommendations and action plan must directly relate to the information provided in the roadmap. In delivering the task consultants are required to: • Structure the recommendations and action plan to cover short-, medium- and long-term activity. We would expect more detail to be provided for the recommendations and activity to be implemented in the short-term with detail reducing as time increases away from the present day. • Define the role of different stakeholders in the delivery of activity. Again, we would expect more detail to be provided for activity implemented in the short- term with this reducing as time increases away from the present day. • Develop the recommendations and activity in consultation with the project steering group.

4. Outputs Required The outputs from this project are:

• Emission reduction scenarios for the power, buildings, industry, transport and LULUCF sectors (three per sector minimum). • An Excel spreadsheet tool, fully unlocked and unlicensed, of the scenario modelling undertaken for the project. Interactions between sectors must be built into the model. The model should allow future scenarios to be run by parties other than the consultant e.g. Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council. • Implementation roadmaps. • Policy recommendations. • An action plan for the delivery of interventions and embedding into various strategies and delivery plans e.g. Hull 2030 Carbon Neutral Strategy, East Riding Environmental Policy, Hull Local Plan and East Riding Local Plan. • Presentations of the interim and final results of the project to the project team and other interested parties. • Draft and final reports setting out the findings of Work Packages 1 to 3. 5. Liaison Arrangements Martin Budd (Climate Change Manager Hull City Council) will act as the central point of contact for this project on behalf of both local authorities. The successful tenderer will be expected to identify one named point of contact to liaise with Martin Budd throughout. 6. Information Provision Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council will provide the successful contractor with: • Local policies, strategies, programmes and projects to be included in the BAU emission pathway. • Potential local and regional interventions for consideration as part of the emission scenarios. • Key stakeholder contact details to validate the assumptions used in the emission scenarios. At the project inception meeting with the Project Steering Group the successful tenderer will be required to provide Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire Council with a list of datasets they require to deliver the project. The Council’s will provide this data to the successful contractor within an acceptable timeframe that does not delay the delivery of the project. 7. Quality Assurance To ensure the robustness and credibility of the project the successful tenderer will be required to have the outputs of the project quality assured. We expect the individual

8 with responsibility for quality assurance to not be directly involved in the delivery of the project. 8. Timescales The project is expected to be completed within a five month window of the contract being signed. Tenders are expected to produce a detailed project plan for the work in word and .pdf.

9. Budget The budget for this project is up to £65,000 excluding VAT. Tenderers should provide a full and detailed breakdown of costs. This should include staff (and day rate) allocated to specific tasks and relate to the project schedule. 10. Payment Contractors will be paid 30% of the budget at the commencement of the contract and then 20% at the completion of each Work Package with the final 10% paid upon the satisfactory completion of the project as a whole.