York, North Yorkshire, East Riding and Hull Area Review Final Report August 2017 Contents Background 4 The needs of the York, North Yorkshire, East Riding and Hull area 5 Demographics and the economy 5 Patterns of employment and future growth 7 LEP priorities 10 Feedback from LEPs, employers, local authorities, students and staff 13 The quantity and quality of current provision 18 Performance of schools at Key Stage 4 19 Schools with sixth-forms 19 The further education and sixth-form colleges 20 The current offer in the colleges 22 Quality of provision and financial sustainability of colleges 23 Higher education in further education 25 Provision for students with special educational needs and disability (SEND) and high needs 25 Apprenticeships and apprenticeship providers 26 Land based provision 26 The need for change 28 The key areas for change 28 Initial options raised during visits to colleges 28 Criteria for evaluating options and use of sector benchmarks 30 Assessment criteria 30 FE sector benchmarks 30 Recommendations agreed by the steering group 32 Askham Bryan College 33 Bishop Burton College 34 Craven College 35 East Riding College 36 Hull College Group 37 2 Scarborough Sixth Form College 38 Scarborough TEC (formerly Yorkshire Coast College) 39 Selby College 40 Wilberforce and Wyke Sixth- Form Colleges 42 York College 43 Conclusions from this review 48 Next steps 50 3 Background In July 2015, the government announced a rolling programme of around 40 local area reviews, to be completed by March 2017, covering all general further education and sixth- form colleges in England. The reviews are designed to ensure that colleges are financially stable into the longer-term, that they are run efficiently, and are well positioned to meet the present and future needs of individual students and the demands of employers. Students in colleges have high expectations about standards of teaching and learning and the extent to which their learning prepares them to progress further, to higher education or directly into employment. The local steering group was chaired by the Sixth Form College Commissioner. The steering group met on 5 occasions between October 2016 and February 2017 and additional informal meetings took place to consider and develop options in greater detail. Membership of the steering group comprised each college’s chair of governors and principal/chief executive officer, representatives from City of York Council, North Yorkshire County Council, the East Riding of Yorkshire Council and Hull City Council, the York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Local Enterprise Partnership, the Humber Local Enterprise Partnership, the Leeds City Region Local Enterprise Partnership, the Regional Schools Commissioner, and representatives from the Skills Funding Agency (SFA), the Education Funding Agency (EFA) and the Department for Education (DfE). Visits to colleges and support throughout the process were provided by staff from the Further Education Commissioner’s team and the Sixth Form College Commissioner’s team. The Joint Area Review Delivery Unit (JARDU) provided the project management, administrative support and developed supporting materials and papers used by the steering group. JARDU also undertook consultations with local stakeholders. 4 The needs of the York, North Yorkshire, East Riding and Hull area Demographics and the economy The York, North Yorkshire, East Riding and Hull area review covers the 4 local authority areas of City of York Council, North Yorkshire County Council, the East Riding of Yorkshire Council and Hull City Council and spans an area of over 10,700 km2. Three Local Enterprise Partnerships work in the review area: the York, North Yorkshire and East Riding Local Enterprise Partnership; the Humber Local Enterprise Partnership, which covers Hull and East Riding on the north bank of the river Humber and North and North East Lincolnshire on the south bank; and the Leeds City Region Local Enterprise Partnership area includes the districts of York, Selby, Harrogate and Craven. This latter area is also covered by the West Yorkshire Combined Authority. The area is illustrated on the map below: 5 The table below provides a snapshot of key demographic and economic data1, which has acted as a starting point for this review. North East York Hull Great Britain Yorkshire Riding Total population (2015) 206,900 602,300 336,700 259,000 63,258,400 Population aged 16 to 66.4% 59.7% 59.2% 66.0% 63.3% 64 % with higher education 40.6% 36.2% 35.0% 22.2% 37.1% qualifications2 Those formally qualified 81.1% 75.4% 76.5% 66.0% 73.6% to level 2+2 Gross weekly pay £ of 509.6 489.1 526.3 454.0 541.0 residents Gross weekly pay £ by 505.4 475.4 483.6 494.1 540.2 workplace Out-of-work benefit 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 3.7% 1.9% claimants % of main benefit 5.0% 5.8% 6.8% 14.4% 8.6% claimants Jobs density3 0.85 0.96 0.69 0.76 0.83 Total workplace units: York North East Hull Average for Yorkshire Riding the review area Micro4 79.4% 85.4% 85.4% 75.3% 82.1% 1 ONS Local Authority Profiles – see data annex – Local socio-economic data. Please note that ONS update the data set on a regular basis and that the data included relates to the point at which the report was written. 2 Percentages relate to those aged 16 to 64 3 Job density relates to the level of jobs per resident aged 16 to 64. For example, a job density of 1.0 would mean that there is one job for every resident aged 16-64. 4 Micro-businesses have a total of 1 to 9 workers; small businesses have 10 to 49 workers; medium have 50 to 249; large have 250+ (2015 data). 6 Total workplace units: York North East Hull Average for Yorkshire Riding the review area Small 16.8% 12.5% 12.15 19.6% 14.4% Medium 3.5% 1.9% 2.2% 4.4% 3.1% Large 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% The key points to note are: • the working age population resident in Hull holds considerably lower qualifications than those in other parts of the review area. 66% have qualifications to level 2 or above and 22% hold higher education qualifications. These proportions are both well below the national averages of 74% and 37% respectively • by contrast, York has a higher proportion of its working age residents qualified both to level 2 and with higher level skills • gross weekly pay both for local residents and by workplace is below the national average for all 4 local authority areas • there are relatively low rates of out-of-work benefit claimants in most of the review area, but in Hull the rate is 3.5%, markedly higher than the national average of 1.8%, the same pattern is true of the percentage of main benefit claimants across the area • of the 4 local authority areas, job density is highest in North Yorkshire (0.96 jobs per 16 to 64 year old resident) and York (0.85), but is below the national average (of 0.83) in East Riding and Hull (0.69 and 0.76 respectively) • whilst the review area is dominated by micro and small businesses (over 80% of business are micro and between 9% and 15% are small), Hull has a relatively higher percentage of medium and large businesses. Patterns of employment and future growth There is expected to be an increase of over 33,000 jobs in the review area as a whole in the period up to 2031, with the largest increase being predicted to be in low pay, low skilled jobs in the visitor economy, retail, warehousing and in the care sector. There are also significant increases expected in professional services and construction. The biggest decrease is forecast to be in manufacturing, although this is likely to be slightly mitigated by jobs to be created in potash mining and supporting industries in North Yorkshire. The population of the York, North Yorkshire and East Riding LEP area is 1.14m, which is growing mainly due to inward migration. The current proportion of the population aged over 7 65 is 22.7% compared to 17.8% nationally and by 2037 this will rise to 31%, so this will present challenges around an ageing workforce and replacement demand in key sectors. The LEP5 regards upskilling of the existing workforce as vital to economic growth, particularly with the replacement demand due to workers retiring (27% of the current workforce is expected to retire by 2022). There are 51,365 businesses in the LEP area, 89.1% of which have less than 10 employees. The number of businesses is growing, but at a slower rate than nationally, although business survival rates are higher. There are 514,000 people employed in the LEP area with 1 in 8 of these working in the healthcare sector. In 5 of the 9 districts in the area, manufacturing or accommodation and food serving are the largest sectors. IT, finance and insurance and business administration and support services are less prominent. 39.6% of residents have a qualification at level 4 or above, compared to 35.8% nationally and the area generally has low levels of unemployment at around 3.5%. However there are pockets of deprivation, of higher unemployment and low skills, particularly along parts of the coast and in some major towns. There were 21,900 additional jobs created in the area between 2014 and 2016 but 20,000 of them were in lower paid sectors of tourism, retail, care and administration. The local economy has a high proportion of seasonal employment, low wages and high levels of part- time employment, so is less suited to in-work training, and many employers report lack of time and money as particular barriers to upskilling their workforce.