Report of the International Group of Experts. the Catalan Independence Referendum : an Assessment of the Process of Self-Determination Irai

KNOWLEDGE, EDUCATION AND DIALOGUE REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL GROUP OF EXPERTS. THE CATALAN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM : AN ASSESSMENT OF THE PROCESS OF SELF-DETERMINATION IRAI Nina Caspersen Professor, University of York Matt Qvrotrup Professor, Coventry University Daniel Turp Professor, University of Montreal Yanina Welp No 01 Professor, University of Zurich SEPTEMBER 2017 www.irai.quebec TABLE OF CONTENT Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 2 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................ 3 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 4 The Right To Decide? The Catalans’ Dilemma – Yanina Welp .......................... 5 The Catalan Independence Referendum: Conflicting Claims and Interna- tional Responses— Nina Caspersen ......................................................................... 21 A Comparative Perspective on Referendums on Independence and the The views expressed in this publica- Proposed Catalan Referendum of October 1st, 2017 – Matt Qvortrup tion are those of the guest authors ........................................................................................................................................................ 37 and do not necessarily represent those of the IRAI or its board of directors. Catalonia’s “Right To Decide” under International, European,Spanish, Cat- alan and Comparative Law – Daniel Turp ............................................................... 55 The IRAI’s Reports of Experts are written by reputable researchers. Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 73 Based on a scientific approach, their goal is to examine a current issue Annex— The Law On The Self-Determination Referendum (project) ....... 75 related to the self-determination of peoples and national independence. About the Report of the International Group of Experts ............................... 88 They are subject to a rigorous evaluation process. About the IRAI ....................................................................................................................... 89 For more information about our publications, please contact us at [email protected] or visit our web- site www.irai.quebec. ISBN 978-2-9817016-3-3 • Online ISBN 978-2-9817016 • Printed Edition 1 IRAI SUMMARY This report addresses different aspects of the proposed referendum in Catalonia. In chapter one, Profes- sor Yanina Welp analyzes and presents a political sociological perspective on the respective evolutions TABLE OF of the Catalan support for or rejection of independence. This chapter also summarizes the events that led to the demand for a referendum. In chapter two, Professor Nina Caspersen presents a comparative and historical overview of the political context of the demand for independence for Catalonia and draws up a number of scenarios for the future, depending on the outcome of the referendum. In the subse- CONTENT quent chapter, Professor Matt Qvortrup analyzes when referendums are held and what determines their outcome; as well, he analyzes the legislation governing the conduct of the proposed referendums. He concludes, with some reservations, that the current legislation meets international standards. Finally, Professor Daniel Turp analyzes and assesses the legality of the proposed referendum. Professor Daniel Turp examines the right to decide of the people of Catalonia in light of rules found in international, Eu- ropean, Spanish, Catalan and comparative law. Le présent rapport aborde les différents aspects du référendum annoncé en Catalogne. Au chapitre un, la professeure Yanina Welp analyse et présente un point de vue politique et sociologique des évolutions respectives du soutien et du rejet catalans relativement à l’indépendance. Ce chapitre résume aussi les événements qui ont mené les Catalans à demander un référendum. Au chapitre deux, la professeure Nina Caspersen présente un aperçu comparatif et historique du contexte politique lié à la demande d’indépendance de la Catalogne et établit un certain nombre de scénarios pour l’avenir, selon les résul- tats du référendum. Dans le chapitre suivant, le professeur Matt Qvortrup analyse les moments où des référendums sont organisés et les facteurs qui déterminent les résultats; de plus, il analyse la loi qui régit la tenue des référendums proposés. Il conclut, avec quelques réserves, que la loi actuelle répond aux normes internationales. Enfin, le professeur Daniel Turp analyse et évalue la légalité du référendum proposé. Il étudie le droit de décider des habitants de la Catalogne à la lumière des règles que l’on re- trouve dans le droit international, européen, espagnol, catalan et comparé. L’informe aborda diferents aspectes relatius al referèndum proposat a Catalunya. Al primer capítol, la Doctora Yanina Welp analitza i presenta una perspectiva política i sociològica de l’evolució del suport o l’oposició a la independència per part del poble català. Així mateix, el capítol s’encarrega de resumir la cronologia d’esdeveniments que han propiciat la petició d’un referèndum. Al segon capítol, la catedràtica Nina Caspersen exposa una visió de conjunt comparativa i històrica del context polític de la demanda d’independència de Catalunya i formula una sèrie d’hipòtesis de futur en funció del resultat del referèn- dum. Al capítol que segueix, el catedràtic Matt Qvortrup estudia quan i en quines condicions se celebren els referèndums i què en determina els resultats; alhora, analitza la legislació que regeix els elements clau dels referèndums proposats. Conclou, amb algunes reserves al respecte, que la legislació actual compleix els estàndards internacionals. Per últim, el catedràtic Daniel Turp analitza i avalua la legalitat del referèndum proposat, i examina el dret a decidir del poble català tenint en compte la legislació inter- nacional, europea, espanyola, catalana i el dret comparat. 2 ACKNOWLEGMENTS On behalf of the Institute for Research on Self-Determination of Peoples and National Independence (IRAI), I would like to express my appreciation to all those who have been involved in the preparation of this report. The IRAI is par- ticularly grateful to the three academics who have agreed to be associated with our new Institute: Nina Caspersen, Yanina Welp and Matt Qvortrup, and with whom I had the pleasure, as their rapporteur, to write this report. I would like to express special thanks to our researcher Anthony Beauséjour, who participated in the deliberations of the group and competently assisted its members and the rapporteur in the preparation of their contributions. The group also expresses its deep appreciation to the IRAI Research Coordinator, Frida Osorio Gonsen, for the phe- nomenal work she devoted to the preparation of the present report. The revision and translation of the report fall under her responsibility, a responsibility which she has exercised with great efficiency. I would also like to thank the IRAI’s Director General, Geneviève Baril, who also played a decisive role in defining the mandates of the members of the group of international experts and in implementing a project of which she is, in the end, the ideator. She must also be thanked for organizing the dissemination of this report, both in Catalonia and in Québec, in conjunction with the invaluable assistance of Philippe Leclerc and Élisabeth Émond of Nestor Stratégie. Daniel Turp Rapporteur 3 IRAI LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BNG Galician Nationalist Bloc PCE Communist Party of Spain Cs Citizens PDC Democratic Pact for Catalonia CC Canarian Coalition PDeCAT Catalan European Democratic Party CDC Democratic Convergence of Catalonia PNV Basque Nationalist Party CiU Convergence and Union S.C. Statutes of Canada CSQP Catalonia Yes We Can S.C.R. Supreme Court Reports (Canada) CQLR Compilation of Québec Laws and Regulations Sess. Session CUP Popular Unity Candidacy Supp. Supplement DC Democrats of Catalonia TC Spanish Constitutional Tribunal Doc. Document TFUE Treaty on the Functioning of the European ERC Republican Left of Catalonia Union ICJ International Court of Justice TS Treaty Series (United States of America) ICV-EUiA Initiative for Catalonia Greens-United and Al- TUE Treaty on the European Union ternative Left UCD Union of the Democratic Centre IU United Left UK United Kingdom ILM International Legal Materials UN United Nations MES Left Movement UNGAOR United Nations General Assembly Official Re- OJ Official Journal (European Union) cords PP Popular Party UNTS United Nations Treaty Series PSC Catalan Socialist Party PPC Catalan People’s Party PSOE Spanish Socialist Workers Party 4 THE REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL GROUP OF EXPERTS. GROUP THE REPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL I. INTRODUCTION As an independent research institute whose mandate is to produce research accessible to all citizens of Quebec and the world on the issues relating to self-determination of peoples and national independence, the IRAI considers the process of determination of Catalonia’s political status which is currently underway and the referendum to be held on October 1, 2017 as deserving of particular attention. This referendum is part of

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