The impact of the ESF on Italian Regions + +  The data

 The ESF in Italy

 The socioeconomic situation AGENDA  Women in the labour market

 Youths

 The evaluation of the regions according with D.E.E.P. TOOL + 3.538.304 DATA The amount who describe the ESIF Fund

About the ESIF for Italy there are 126.378 DATA

We have been used 7.082 DATA for this presentation. + Note

We will take in consideration the calculations that showed a Rating Index more than 90%: more is the reliability, lower is the margin of error.

Furthermore, we will show useful indexes to express the intensity of the analyzed phenomena, using the formula:

푉푎푙푢푒 ∗ 10 퐼푛푑푒푥 푤𝑖푡ℎ 𝑖푛푡푒푛푠𝑖푡푦 푏푎푠푒 푓푟표푚 0 푡표 10 = 푀푎푥𝑖푚푢푚 푟푒푐표푟푑푒푑 푣푎푙푢푒 + The ESF in Italy

Italy is one of the main country with a large amount of ESF budget. About this, it’s useful focus on some crucial aspects:

 The budget amount

 The participation of EU and Italy in the budget

 The interested areas of the budget + Proportionally the EU contribution grows Percentage of contribution in the ESF 100,00% 90,00%

80,00% 43,77% 43,77% 43,77% 43,71% 41,65% 41,69% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00%

30,00% 56,23% 56,23% 56,23% 56,29% 58,35% 58,31% Percentage Percentage values 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EU National (IT)

Source: Europartners elaborations on ESIF Data The EU contribute grows, with a light decrease between 2018 and 2019 Percentage of the ESF’s budget areas

Technical + Efficient Public Assistance Administration 3,61% Sustainable & The budget areas 5,56% Quality Employment of the ESF 38,14% We have five areas, three of these have the 90,83% of the ESF, there are:

• Sustainable & Quality Employmnent;

• Social Inclusion;

• Education & Vocational Training.

Educational & Vocational Training 31,29% Social Inclusion 21,39%

Source: Europartners elaborations on ESIF Data + The targets of the ESF

In reference to the budget areas, the ESF is focused on the inclusion policies, quality and sustainable employment, educations and development of competitive skills, poverty, youths and the women in the labour market. For this reason we will observe:

 Employment and its impact;

 Women in the labour market;

 Youths. + The employment situation and its impact The occupation topic is one of the most discusses, in particular in the last few years, so it’s appropriate to estimate the quality of the employment and how it evolved between 2014 and 2018, but not only this… Variations of the Employment Rate between + 2014 and 2018 (≥15 years old) Molise 8,60% The employment rate Apulia 6,74% Sardinia 6,56% improves… Campania 6,44% Calabria 6,27% It improves throughout the Italian Abruzzo 5,79% territory in the five years. Piedmont 4,46% Emilia-Romagna 4,43% There were negative variations in the Tuscany 3,94% Sicily 3,90% last three-year period in Molise, Sicily, Basilicata 3,86% Tuscany, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Liguria 3,77% Campania, Basilicata and Apulia. Friuli-Venezia Giulia 3,72% Lombardy 3,33% Veneto 3,29% Marche 3,03% Umbria 2,67% Lazio 2,51% Trentino-South Tyrol 2,16% Aosta Valley 1,06% 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% Percentage variations

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Variations of the Unemployment Rate + between 2014 and 2018 (≥15 years old) Trentino-South Tyrol -32,95% …also the Emilia-Romagna -29,61% Tuscany -27,37% unenployment rate Piedmont -27,24% Lombardy -26,36% improves… Apulia -25,34% Aosta Valley -21,10% This also improves throughout the Marche -20,05% Italian territory in the five years. Umbria -18,61% Sardinia -17,47% In the last three-year period most Friuli-Venezia Giulia -16,33% Basilicata -15,13% regions show positive data, stable Molise -14,43% situation for Campania and Lazio, Abruzzo -14,27% slightly negative for Molise (+1,36%) Veneto -13,87% Lazio -10,91% and Liguria (+1,65%). Liguria -8,75% Calabria -7,77% Campania -6,28% Sicily -3,23% 0,00% -10,00% -20,00% -30,00% -40,00% Percentage variations

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data + … but individuals and families in state of relative poverty increase…!

Individuals in state of relative Families in state of relative poverty poverty in Italy in Italy 2,50% 2,50% 2,10% 2,00% 2,00% 1,50% 1,50% 1,50% 1,20% 1,00% 1,00% 1,00%

0,50% 0,50%

Percentage Percentage variations Percentage variations 0,00% 0,00% Variations in the Variations in the Variations in the Variations in the three-years period five-years period three-years period five-years period (2016-18) (2014-18) (2016-18) (2014-18)

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data The variations in the three-year period of families in this state is the most important, especially about the contribute on the data between 2014 and 2018 + The relative poverty

It is not just a state in which individual or a families can be, but negatively affects the labour market, competitiveness of SMEs and consumption.

The spending capacity decrease, becoming impossible to purchase good and service like University studies and training courses.

In this state personal finances are used to purchase essential goods. Individuals in state of relative poverty in 2018 + by regions Calabria 34,60% Individuals in state Campania 29,50% Sicily 26,00% Sardinia 25,00% of relative poverty Apulia 22,80% Basilicata 19,00% South Italy stands out: three out of ten Molise 18,00% are in this state in Calabria, one out Umbria 16,30% four in Sardinia. Other regions like Marche 13,50% Abruzzo 12,00% Apulia, Sicily and Campania exceed Friuli-Venezia Giulia 10,40% 20%. Lazio 10,20% Veneto 10,20% Liguria 9,90% Piedmont 9,30% In the last five years the major Lombardy 8,60% variations have been identified in Tuscany 8,30% Emilia-Romagna 6,80% Campania (+9,50%), Sardinia Trentino-South Tyrol 6,20% (+9,10%), Umbria (+5,00%) and Aosta Valley 5,60% Veneto (+3,80%). 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% Percentage values

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Families in state of relative poverty in 2018 + by regions Calabria 34,60% Families in state of Campania 29,50% Sicily 26,00% Sardinia 25,00% relative poverty Apulia 22,80% Basilicata 19,00% Of these, three out ten are in this state Molise 18,00% in Calabria, almost one out four in Umbria 16,30% Campania, in Puglia one out five. Marche 13,50% Abruzzo 12,00% Also in this case, southern Italy stands Friuli-Venezia Giulia 10,40% out. Lazio 10,20% Veneto 10,20% In the five-years period the major Liguria 9,90% Piedmont 9,30% variations on the rise have been Lombardy 8,60% detected in Umbria (+6,30%), Tuscany 8,30% Campania (+5,50%), Sardegna Emilia-Romagna 6,80% Trentino-South Tyrol 6,20% (+4,20%), Calabria (+3,70%) and Aosta Valley 5,60% Veneto (+3,40%). 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% Percentage values

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data + The estimate gravity of the phenomenon

To estimate the Gravity Index about the state Gravity Index about the state of of relative poverty between individuals and poverty by regions (2014-18)

families, has been considered: Sardinia 10,00 Campania 8,85 Veneto 3,46  The three-years period 2016-18 Apulia 3,27 Tuscany 2,73  The five-years period 2014-18 Lombardy 1,85 Umbria 1,78 Trentino-South Tyrol 1,73 Sardinia and Campania show the greatest Marche 1,63 intensity compared to other regions. Piedmont 1,37 Emilia-Romagna 0,05 - 5,00 10,00 Intensity

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Interesting the presence, with minimal intensity, of Trentino-South Tyrol Percentage of the available workforce in Italy + by region and sex Basilicata 59,11% 40,89% Apulia 58,35% 41,65% The available Campania 57,78% 42,22% Molise 57,76% 42,24% workforce in Italy Sicily 57,29% 42,71% Sardinia 56,86% 43,14% The amount of available workforce in Abruzzo 56,81% 43,19% Lombardy 56,40% 43,60% Italy have been estimated considering Veneto 56,39% 43,61% the labour market. Calabria 56,26% 43,74% Lazio 56,19% 43,81% The majority is composed by men, with Piedmont 55,86% 44,14% Marche 55,85% 44,15% a wider difference in southern Italy, Umbria 55,69% 44,31% especially in regions like Basilicata and Friuli-Venezia Giulia 55,39% 44,61% Trentino-South Tyrol 55,25% 44,75% Apulia. Emilia-Romagna 55,23% 44,77% Liguria 55,18% 44,82% Conversly, the gap is less in the Tuscany 55,04% 44,96% northern regions, especially in Aosta Aosta Valley 53,88% 46,12% Valley, Tuscany and Liguria. 0,00% 20,00% 40,00% 60,00% 80,00% 100,00% Percentage values

Men % Women % Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Percentage of the occupied workforce in Italy + by region and sex Sicily 58,92% 41,08% Campania 58,75% 41,25% The occupied Calabria 58,52% 41,48% Apulia 57,43% 42,57% workforce in Italy Abruzzo 55,73% 44,27% Basilicata 55,30% 44,70% The occupied workforce in Italy is Molise 54,96% 45,04% Liguria 53,50% 46,50% mostly composed by men, in Umbria 52,96% 47,04% particular with regard in Sicily, Marche 52,58% 47,42% Sardinia 52,28% 47,72% Campania, Calabria and Apulia, all Lazio 52,21% 47,79% regions of southern Italy. Friuli-Venezia Giulia 52,13% 47,87% Veneto 52,03% 47,97% Otherwise, the gap is less in the Emilia-Romagna 51,87% 48,13% Tuscany 51,84% 48,16% northern regions, especially in Piedmont 51,80% 48,20% Trentino-South Tyrol, Aosta Valley, Lombardy 51,71% 48,29% Aosta Valley 50,79% 49,21% Lombardy and Piedmont. Trentino-South Tyrol 50,69% 49,31% 0,00% 20,00% 40,00% 60,00% 80,00% 100,00% Percentage values

Men % Women % Source: Europartners elaborations in ISTAT, Eurostat Data + Do women have lower employment opportunities? We will use the Employment Disparity Index to estimate the inequality between women and men.

We will see an elabouration of the year «2018» who takes into account the employment and unemployment situation, usefull to analyze the effective workforce made available in Italy by sex. + Employment Disparity Index in favour of women…

Percentage difference Employment Disparity Index in favour of women in favour of women

Lombardy 10,00 Lombardy 4,69% Sardinia Sardinia 4,58% 9,76 Trentino-South Tyrol Trentino-South Tyrol 4,56% 9,72 Veneto 4,36% Veneto 9,30 Piedmont 4,06% Piedmont 8,65 Lazio 3,97% Lazio 8,47 Basilicata 3,81% Basilicata 8,13 Emilia-Romagna 3,36% Emilia-Romagna 7,17 Marche 3,26% Marche 6,96 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 3,26% Friuli-Venezia Giulia 6,95 Tuscany 3,20% Tuscany 6,82 Aosta Valley 3,08% Aosta Valley 6,57 Molise 2,79% Molise 5,95 Umbria 2,74% Umbria 5,83 Liguria 1,67% Liguria 3,57 Abruzzo 1,08% Abruzzo 2,30 Apulia 0,92% Apulia 1,97 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% - 5,00 10,00 Percentage values Intensity Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Compared to available workforce and the effective workfoce made available, the women are more present in seventeen out of twenty Italian regions. + Employment Disparity Index in favour of men…

Percentage difference Employment Disparity Index in favour of men in favour of men

Calabria 2,26% Calabria 4,82

Sicily 1,63% Sicily 3,47

Campania 0,98% Campania 2,09

0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 2,00% 2,50% - 5,00 10,00 Percentage values Intensity

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Otherwise, men prevail in only three regions, located in southern Italy. Employment Disparity Index + in favour of women Trentino-South Tyrol 10,00 What has changed Aosta Valley 9,84 Lombardy 9,44 since 2014? Friuli-Venezia Giulia 9,16 The situation remains unchanged, the Molise 9,01 only difference is registered in Apuli: in Lazio 7,26 the year 2014 the Employment Emilia-Romagna 7,17 Disparity Index was in favour of men. Basilicata 7,16 Liguria 6,88 Piedmont 6,56 Veneto 6,29 Umbria 5,72 Sardinia 5,65 Abruzzo 5,01 Marche 4,69 Tuscany 4,31

- 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 Intensity Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data + Youths About them, the YEI Fund is related to the ESF. We have developed our age groups about the N.E.E.T., useful to describe the phenomenon, in particular:

 The youngest (aged 15 to 17);

 The young people (aged 18 to 24);

 The young people (aged 25 to 29);

 Women and men (aged 30 to 34) + The school dropout between 15 and 17 years old

Youngest residents in Italy School dropout (aged 15 to 17) (aged 15 to 17) 1.735.000 7,50% 1.730.000 7,00% 1.725.000 6,50% 1.720.000 6,00% 1.715.000 5,50% 1.710.000 5,00%

1.705.000 4,50%

Percentage Percentage values Resident Resident population 1.700.000 4,00% 1.695.000 3,50% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Italy 1.709. 1.713. 1.726. 1.728. 1.726. Italy 4,99% 5,43% 4,96% 6,44% 5,73%

Italy Linear Trend 2014-18 Italy Linear Trend 2014-18

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Raise the number of youngest residents in Italy, but at the same time the school dropout increase! Regions who show negative variations about + the school dropout (2014-18) Which regions have Lazio 2,94% Campania 2,76% worsened the data? Aosta Valley 2,71% Lazio stands out (+2,94%), followed by Liguria 2,25% Campania (+2,76%), Aosta Valley Umbria 1,80%

(+2,71%) and Liguria (+2,25%). Veneto 1,41%

Twelve out of twenty regions show Emilia-Romagna 1,38% negative variations. Piedmont 1,17%

Trentino-South Tyrol 1,04%

Friuli-Venezia Giulia 0,91%

Lombardy 0,77%

Marche 0,70%

0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 2,00% 2,50% 3,00% 3,50% Percentage variations

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data + The N.E.E.T. between 18 and 24 years old

Young people residents in Italy N.E.E.T. (aged 18 to 24) (aged 18 to 24) 4.400.000 35,00% 4.300.000 4.200.000 32,50% 4.100.000 4.000.000 30,00% 3.900.000 27,50% 3.800.000 3.700.000 25,00%

3.600.000 Percentage Percentage values Resident Resident population 3.500.000 22,50% 3.400.000 3.300.000 20,00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Italy 4.267. 3.659. 4.191. 4.167. 4.158. Italy 28,86% 32,06% 25,84% 25,53% 24,67%

Italy Linear Trend 2014-18 Italy Linear Trend 2014-18

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data N.E.E.T. between 18 and 24 years old have a positive drops, also the number of young people residents raise positively + The N.E.E.T. between 25 and 29 years old

Young people residents in Italy N.E.E.T. (aged 25 to 29) (aged 25 to 29) 3.310.000 34,00% 3.300.000 33,50% 3.290.000 33,00% 3.280.000 32,50% 3.270.000 32,00% 3.260.000 31,50% 3.250.000 31,00% 3.240.000

3.230.000 30,50% Percentage Percentage values Resident Resident population 3.220.000 30,00% 3.210.000 29,50% 3.200.000 29,00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Italy 3.303. 3.282. 3.260. 3.249. 3.248. Italy 33,20% 32,99% 32,06% 31,19% 30,51%

Italy Linear Trend 2014-18 Italy Linear Trend 2014-18

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data The percentage of N.E.E.T about this age group drops positively, but also the number of residents of the same age! + The N.E.E.T. between 30 and 34 years old

Women and men residents in Italy N.E.E.T. (aged 30 to 34) (aged 30 to 34) 3.750.000 3.700.000 30,50% 3.650.000 3.600.000 30,00% 3.550.000 29,50% 3.500.000 29,00% 3.450.000 3.400.000 28,50% 3.350.000 28,00%

Resident Resident population 3.300.000 Percentage Percentage values 27,50% 3.250.000 3.200.000 27,00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Italy 3.682. 3.611. 3.537. 3.462. 3.394. Italy 29,84% 29,67% 30,04% 28,77% 28,35%

Italy Linear Trend 2014-18 Italy Linear Trend 2014-18

Source: Europartners elaborations on ISTAT, Eurostat Data Also in this case, the age group between 30 and 34 years old is influenced by the previous negative trend about the group aged 25 to 29. + The evaluation of the regions

The allocation of funds is assigned according to the EU classifications, this is how the investment policies are made. We will observe:

 The EU classification

 The regions according with the RATE D.E.E.P. + The EU classification The regional programs are assigned following the EU classification, this describes three stage of development:

• More Developed;

• Transition;

• Less Developed.

Most of the Italian regions are classified as «More Developed», in «Transition» stage Sardinia, Abruzzo and Molise, the others of the southern Italy are classified «Less Developed».

Source: Europartners elaborations on D.E.E.P. Data  Firstly a positive (+1) or a negative score (-1) is assigned at each elements, for example: +  Employment rate grows (+1); The classification  Unemployment rate grows (-1); according to D.E.E.P.  Etc.

The «D.E.E.P. Rating Function»  Secondly a positive (+1) or a negative score (-1) is assigns a classification to the analyzed assigned at each connections, for example: geographical area, in this specific case  Employment rate grows and Unempoyment rate Italian regions, useful to estimate the decrease (+1); socio-economic situation.  The population decrease and the N.E.E.T. rate grows At first, a score is assigned: (-1)  Etc.

 In case of conflicting connectios is assigned a null score(0) for example:  Employment rate grows but population decrease (0);  N.E.E.T. rate decresce but also the population decrease (0);  Etc. Rating Code + A1 Optimal stage D.E.E.P. Rating A2 There are three classifications, each A3 Oriented to a better situation one have three levels of internal stratification. B1 The scores are summed up: B2 Transition stage 퐼푛푑푒푥 표푛 푎 푐푢푚푢푙푎푡𝑖푣푒 푏푎푠𝑖푠 B3 = 푃표푠𝑖푡𝑖푣푒 푒푙푒푚푒푛푡 + 푁푒푔푎푡𝑖푣푒 푒푙푒푚푒푛푡 C1 Oriented to a worst situation + 푃표푠𝑖푡𝑖푣푒 푐표푛푛푒푐푡𝑖표푛 + 푁푒푔푎푡𝑖푣푒 푐표푛푛푒푐푡𝑖표푛 C2 At last, the Index is normalized on a C3 Plight stage base from 0 to 10, at the value is n.a. It’s impossible to assign a classification assigned a rating between «C3» and to the area: lack of data or useful «A1» informations + The D.E.E.P. Rating of the Italian regions Related to the phenomena observed, most of the Italian regions are in a "Transition Stage", the "B2" classification, this means an unstable situation.

The best one is Friuli-Venezia Giulia with a D.E.E.P. Rating «A3», followed by Aosta Valley, Lombardy, Liguria and Emilia- Romagna with a «B1».

In the southern Italy stands out Campania with a «C1» classification, most of the others have a «B2» and «B3», excluding Basilicata with a «B1».

Source: Europartners elaborations on D.E.E.P. Data + Our conclusion according to the data

The employment situation improves, but with a large impact on the individuals’ 1 financial capacity

According to the workforce available relationated to the occupied, women 2 have a major presence in the labour market.

School dropout returns among the youngest furthermore. But at the same 3 time there is a depopulation of the age group between 30 and 34 years old

According to the D.E.E.P. Rating most of the Italian regions are classified in a 4 «Transition state», showing an unstable socioeconomic situation +

Contacts Europartners Srl Via Cardinal De Luca 1, 00196 Roma Rue Des deux Eglises 39, 1000 Bruxelles Mobile IT: +39 3471779470 Mobile BE: +32 488932107 Skype: epn-olivierlarocca [email protected] www.europartnersnetwork.eu