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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 08 Oct 2020 08:49 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article GVC Holdings Very strong Q3, excellent US momentum & Company Events FY20 guidance increased 08-Oct GVC Holdings; Trading update 09-Oct Air France-KLM; September 2020 Traffic Stats easyJet Winter chills J D Wetherspoon; Full year results 14-Oct Barratt Developments; Trading Update Irish Economic View Big upgrades but big uncertainties 15-Oct Domino's Pizza Group; Q320 Trading Update Harworth Group; Ex Div too - ESRI Hays; Q121 Trading Update UK Housebuilders ICS -"provides further evidence of the Mondi; Q320 Trading Update Secure Trust Bank; Q320 Trading Update buoyancy" of UK housing but caution noted on 2021 Irish Banks Brexit looming larger; Drawdown of Covid-19 supports remains low CPL Resources Reinstatement of interim dividend by Robert Walters Yew Grove REIT Two peer office deals highlight the value on offer in Dublin Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap GVC Holdings Very strong Q3, excellent US momentum & FY20 guidance increased Q3 group revenue is noted as being +12% yoy (+14% cc). Within Online, Q3 revenue Recommendation: Buy increased 26% (+28% cc), with sports +24% and gaming +27%. This compares to our H2 Closing Price: £10.52 forecast of +12% (GBY: sports +9%, gaming +15%). In UK Retail, LFL revenues are -5%, which is better than the -10% we have in our model for H2 (retail volumes are within 10% of Gavin Kelleher +353-1-641 0423 pre-covid levels). Progress on the US is very strong with the group noting it has a c.17% [email protected] share across the markets it operates in. On guidance, the group has increased FY20 EBITDA guidance range to £770m to £790m (previously £720-740m). Share of US JV loss guidance for FY20 has increased to £60m from £40m (but revenue expectation increased and market share running ahead of expectation). Online revenue was very strong in Q3 with NGR increasing by +26% (+28% cc). Within Online, sports increased by 24% yoy (+27% cc) driven by wagers +25% with margin down 20bps. Wager growth was helped by the busy sports schedule. The Australian business in particular was called out as performing strongly and growing its market share (+64% cc NGR growth). Online Gaming continues to trend ahead of pre COVID-19 levels delivering 27% NGR growth (+28% cc). The group has this morning announced the acquisition of Bet.pt, one of the leading operators in the regulated Portuguese online market. UK retail LFL revenue declined by -5% with wagers -9% and margin -10bps. The group opened stores as soon they were permitted to do so and this saw customers return to stores quickly with volumes now within 10% of pre COVID-19 levels (helped by strong growth in SSBTs). European Retail was +2% yoy driven by a strong performance in Italy albeit partly offset by a slower recovery in Belgium and the Republic of Ireland. BetMGM continues to make good progress in the US. It is now live in eight states with a further three expected to be added by year end. In terms of Online, the group launched sports betting in Indiana, Colorado and West Virginia along with iGaming in WV earlier this year and has achieved a combined market share for the three markets of 15-20%. In NJ, August saw the group achieve a 22% share of iGaming and 10% share of online sports- betting. The group estimates that BetMGM has a 17% market share in the markets that it currently operates in. BetMGM will this week roll out its single app which will help drive further customer engagement. In terms of guidance for this year, it expects to deliver net revenue of $150-160m with GVC’s share of the JV’s losses expected to be c.£60m (previous guidance £40m). This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates This is a very positive update from GVC and there is a lot to like. The online growth was well ahead of expectations, and is being driven by both sports and gaming. The UK retail performance is very encouraging given the UK high street in general at present. On the US, the revenue and market share performance are running ahead of where people would expect. This gives further support to the thesis we outlined earlier this week in our note “Reborn in the USA”. On forecasts, we expect to upgrade our FY20 EBITDA numbers towards £780m, from £733m currently. On FY21, our current EBITDA forecasts sit at £847m, but given the bolton deal in Portugal announced today and the strength in online we expect to increase them by 2-3%. As we outlined above, there is a lot to like about this morning’s update and we re-iterate our BUY recommendation. Home… Page 2 08 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap easyJet Winter chills The company released its FY20 post-close statement in which the scale of losses was bigger Recommendation: Sell Closing Price: £5.23 than expected, exceptional charges are larger and guidance for Q121 flying is lower than expected. There was nothing in this release that offers any light into a very dark picture for Mark Simpson winter demand, with recent rises in the stock more to do with exogenous factors (proposed +353-1-641 0478 European wide quarantining measures and proposed airport testing). [email protected] In terms of the numbers, the guided range for a pre-tax loss pre-exceptionals of £815- £845m is bigger than our £800m forecast. On top of this, exceptional charges will total some £440m, with a further £120m for restructuring and £145m for ineffective hedges. In terms of Q420 cash burn, this is said to be below £700m vs our £600m estimate, leaving cash as at 30th Sept at £2.3bn vs our £2.2bn estimate. While this looks adequate against our current forecast of a £600m cash burn for Q121 to December, the current low level of demand may see this level of cash burn repeated in Q221 to March, leaving cash at just over £1bn at that point and net debt at ~£2.4bn. With FY20 equity now forecast at £1.8bn and with losses of over £300m forecast for H121, the balance sheet ratios may begin to look stretched again. As such, while the company will focus on further sale and leasebacks to bolster its cash position in the first instance, another equity raise cannot be ruled out. This will be dictated by just how bad the winter season is, with the company now expecting to fly 25% of planned capacity over the current quarter vs our 30% forecast, and by the behaviour of customers in terms of forward-booking decisions for the Summer 21 season, with the current close-in booking profile a negative in this regard. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 08 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Economic View Big upgrades but big uncertainties too - ESRI Like the Central Bank earlier in the week, the ESRI has upgraded its economic forecasts for Dermot O’Leary Ireland significantly in its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary this morning. It is +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] anticipating GDP to decline by 1.8% in 2020, with growth of 6.3% expected in 2021. In May, the ESRI forecast that GDP would decline by 12% this year. The reasons for the upgrade are familiar, with growth in multinational exports offsetting the weakness in the domestic economy. That said, the consumer picture has also been somewhat better than originally expected. For 2021, the ESRI is assuming that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be struck between the UK and the EU. If does not happen, growth would be some three percentage points lower. Huge uncertainties remain around economic forecasts currently, with the biggest uncertainty being around the labour market outlook. Even with a Brexit agreement, the economic impact on the services sector in Ireland means that employment will remain below its no-pandemic baseline level until 2023, 2024 and 2026 in the ESRI’s Recovery, 2nd Wave and Delayed Recovery scenarios. The scarring effects from the pandemic on the labour market will depend heavily on the scale and duration of government supports to keep businesses alive. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 08 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap UK Housebuilders ICS -"provides further evidence of the buoyancy" of UK housing but caution noted on 2021 Prices and activity in the UK housing market continued to be strong in September according Shane Carberry to the latest RICS survey published this morning. The headline price balance rose to +61 in +353-1-6419118 September (August +44) which represents the highest proportion of surveyors seeing price [email protected] growth since 2002.
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