Zimbabwe Monthly Food Security Update March 20

ZIMBABWE MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE

MARCH 20, 2001

Based on a joint report prepared by the Zimbabwe National Early Warning Unit and FEWS NET/Zimbabwe

Summary

¨ The month of February was generally so wet that most of the country recorded higher than normal rainfall with areas such as Muzarabani, Guruve, Kadoma, Chegutu and Gokwe South Districts reporting flooding and water logging. Farmers in the southern districts of the country, such as Beitbridge and Gwanda, received their effective rainfall in February and started planting.

¨ FEWS NET and NEWU estimate 2000/01 grain production at 1.27 million MT, of which about 1.22 million MT is maize. This estimated production represents a 42 percent decrease from production in 1999/2000, and a 32 percent decrease from average production in the 1990s.

¨ The area planted to maize decreased by 4 percent and the area planted to sorghum by 25 percent compared to the 1990s average, for all farming sectors. The area planted to soyabeans increased by 136 percent, sunflower by 66 percent and groundnuts 4 percent compared with last season.

¨ The following districts planted less than 50 percent of the 1990s average area under crops at the communal-area level: Umguza, Matobo, Beitbridge, and Insiza Districts in Matebeleland South Province; Chiredzi District in Masvingo Province; Mberengwa, Gweru, Shurugwi and Zvishavane Districts in Midlands Province; Wedza, Seke, and Chikomba Districts in Mashonaland East Province; Murehwa District in Mashonaland East; and Kariba and Kadoma Districts in Mashonaland West Province. Most of these districts also planted fewer grain crops than the 1990s average. The food security of households in these districts is of major concern in 2001/02.

¨ Zimbabwe has a projected maize deficit of about 460,000 MT in the 2001/02 consumption year, a deficit that can easily be met from commercial imports if foreign currency is available.

¨ The Department of Social Welfare started food-for-work programs in February in eight districts: Beitbridge, Gwanda, Bulilimamangwe, and Matobo Districts in Matebeleland South Province; Mvuma and Mberengwa Districts in Midlands Province; and Mwenezi and Chiredzi Districts in Masvingo Province.

¨ A comparison of per capita Maize Equivalent Income (MEI) from crops in 2000/01 with average MEI in the 1990s indicates that some districts lost more than 60 percent of their normal crop production MEI.

1. Food-Security Status

Given the estimated level of stocks in the country as of the end of March 2001 and based on average consumption requirements, Zimbabwe has adequate maize to last until mid-June 2001. If carryover stocks and the harvest prospects in 2001 are considered, the country will have adequate maize to last until mid-January 2002. A projected deficit of about 460,000 MT of maize needs to be imported to meet national maize requirements for the 2001/02 consumption year, which runs from April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002.

1.1. Current Food Security Status through March 2001

At the national level, Zimbabwe has adequate stocks to last until the end of March, with heavy drawdowns of official stocks of around 60,000 MT reported at the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) starting in January. Dwindling stocks at the sub-national level, such as those in Beitbridge District, have been replenished by the GMB through satellite selling depots set up in these areas. Generally, stock levels in the countryside have gone down, with only less than 30 percent of communal farmers still holding stocks in the grain-deficit areas of Matebeleland North and South, southern parts of Masvingo, and Midlands Provinces. More than 50 percent of the communal farmers hold stocks in the three Mashonaland Provinces and Manicaland Province.

Food access started to be a problem in February as the price of maize grain in the local markets went up. Maize was sold between Z$3.60 to Z$8.33 per kg in the normal surplus areas and between Z$8.33 to Z$13.89 per kg in the deficit areas, indicating shortages. Most poor consumers in the deficit areas cannot afford these high grain prices. However, some relief was provided to the cyclone-affected districts in the south through a cash-for-work program.

Zimbabwe has adequate wheat stocks to last until August 2001 at normal consumption rates. The country has imported about 21,000 MT of wheat since the harvest in October 2001 and it needs to import an additional 50,000-80,000 MT of wheat to meet consumption requirements before the next harvest in October 2001.

To improve food availability in the cyclone-affected districts of the south, the Department of Social Welfare started implementing a food-for-work program in February. Under this program, some of the eligible households have received Z$250 per month.

1.2. Food Security Prospects for Next Year (April 2001/March 2002)

A preliminary assessment done by FEWS NET, NEWU, and other Government Departments revealed that the country could have a grain deficit of about 460,000 MT in the 2001/02 consumption year starting on April 1, 2001 and ending March 31, 2002. The available grain in 2001/02 comprises about 1.27 million MT from estimated production and 440,000 MT from estimated carryover stocks. The analysis also revealed that average households in most of the districts in Matebeleland South, Matebeleland North, Masvingo, and Midlands Provinces are likely to be food insecure as their per capita cash and grain production is more than 60 percent below the 1990s average.

2. Agro-meteorological Conditions

Crops that had suffered from moisture stress, pests and diseases, such as aphids, in January recovered with the widespread rainfall received in February through mid-March. Some crops suffered from water logging and flooding in some districts due to excessive rainfall. Farmers in the southern districts of the country — such as Beitbridge and Gwanda — received their effective rainfall in February and started planting. Larger than normal flocks of Quelea birds have seriously damaged millets and sorghum in the growing areas of Matebeleland South, Matebeleland North, southern parts of Midlands, Manicaland and Masvingo Provinces.

2.1. Rainfall Distribution

The entire month of February through mid-March was wet as Zimbabwe received heavy rainfall, leading to flooding in northern Zambezi valley districts and also in Kadoma, Chegutu, and Gokwe South Districts in the center of the country. This heavy rainfall received was influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which continued moving southward across the country for most of February. The wet spell during the month has improved the cumulative rainfall situation, with most of the country now recording more than 100 percent of normal rainfall since October 2000. The exceptions are the southern districts of the country covering Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Mwenezi, Gwanda, and parts of Mberengwa and Chivi, which had received less than 100 percent of normal rainfall as of mid-March 2001 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percentage of Normal Rainfall from October 1, 2000 to March 14, 2001

Source: Zimbabwe Department of Meteorological Services

The month of March started drying off due to the tropical cyclone Dera, which facilitated the development of a high-pressure ridge over the southwest Zimbabwe and elsewhere in southern Africa. Only isolated thundershowers were received in March and mostly in the northern districts of the country.

2.2. Crop Conditions

At least 40 percent of the early-planted (November) grain and groundnut crops have reached maturity, with some already harvested. Some of the early-planted crop reached the permanent wilting point in southern districts of the country, such as Chipinge South, Chiredzi, Mwenezi, Mberengwa, Beitbridge, and Gwanda Districts during the dry spell in January. In the central districts of the country and some northern districts, maize and groundnuts yields were reduced as the dry spell affected cob formation and pod filling. The wet spell that started in February led to the recovery of most crops. However, some crops in sandy soils suffered from nutrient leaching and those in low-lying areas from water logging (Chegutu, Kadoma, Zaka, Gutu and Mvuma Districts) and flooding (Muzarabani, Guruve and Gokwe Districts) later in February due to the continuous heavy rainfall. Crops planted late in December and January comprise 60 percent of the crop and are at the early reproductive to grain-filling stage and are generally doing well where fertilizers or manure were applied. Some of the unfertilized crops are showing signs of nitrogen deficiency.

Some farmers planted a late crop of maize in January and February, which can only reach maturity if rains continue through April and May. The dry spell compounded by excessively wet conditions could cause a reduction in yields, with some farmers comparing the current year to the 1997/98 season, an El Niño year.

The damage caused by Quelea birds to the sorghum and millet crops is more pronounced this year than in previous years. These birds are likely to cause heavy crop damage and yield losses in the millets and sorghum growing areas of Matebeleland South and North, Midlands, Manicaland and Masvingo Provinces. Some of the farmers have reduced the area under these crops due to: · Labor shortages for scaring the birds; · Problems with processing of millets; · Preference for maize (and maize meal) over millets; · The low price of millets compared to maize in the market; and · Easy access to maize markets

The areas affected by floods in Muzarabani (Chaderaka ward) and Guruve (Musengezi, Chidodo and Gonono wards) Districts are requesting Government and NGOs to provide maize and bean seeds for replanting in the flood plains of the Zambezi River and its tributaries to avoid continued dependency on food handouts.

2.3. Livestock and Vegetation Conditions

Livestock are in good condition in the large-scale commercial sector where farmers are carrying out disease control measures. However, livestock conditions in the smallholder sector range from poor to good. Farmers in some communal areas have reported animal deaths due to tick- borne diseases, such as heart water and red water. Tick-borne diseases have been reported in Matebeleland North and South, Mashonaland Central, Manicaland and Mashonaland East Provinces due to irregular dipping caused by a shortage of chemicals (acaricides) for the dip tanks. Red water is reported to be a problem in Nyanga (Manicaland Province) and Muzarabani Districts (Mashonaland Central Province). There were reports of lumpy skin disease in districts such as Insiza in Matebeleland North Provinces.

Pastures are good but not sufficient in most communal areas because farming families have encroached on grazing areas, reducing the total grazing area. However, should rainfall 5 continue to the end of the rainy season, grazing would improve in quality and quantity, even in Matebeleland South, which was devoid of grass in January.

2.4. State of the Major Dams

With the heavy rainfall received in February, almost all the major dams are full of water and spilling over. The dams have gained 6 percent capacity from the level of 93.8 percent on 12 February 2001. Lake Kariba is estimated at 3.15 m from its full supply level. The level is lower than the same time last year when it was about 2 m from full supply level. The lake normally reaches its maximum capacity in June. To release pressure on the dam wall, the Zambezi River Authority has fully opened 2 floodgates and partially opened another gate, releasing an estimated 3,700 cubic meters of water per second down the Zambezi River. Other rivers are flowing with some occurrences of localized flooding. There is adequate water to meet human, livestock, irrigation, and industrial requirements.

3. Crop Production Outlook in 2000/01

At least 2.5 million ha have been planted to crops in 2000/01, of which 87 percent is in the communal area. The area planted is 6 percent more than the 1990s average. The area planted to maize is estimated at 1.25 million ha, about 12 percent less than the areas planted last year. Grain production is estimated at 1.27 million MT, of which about 1 22 million MT is maize. The 2000/01 harvest has been affected by the dry spell and Quelea bird damage to millets and sorghum.

3.1. Analysis of Area Planted to Crops in 2000/01

Preliminary estimates indicate that the area planted to crops in 2000/01 in all farming sectors is approximately 2.5 million hectares. This represents a 2 percent decrease in area planted compared with 2.56 million hectares in 1999/2000 and a 6 percent increase compared with the 1990s average (Table 1). The decrease in area planted to crops compared with last year is mainly attributed to: · The late start of the season, especially in the southern parts of the country; · The dry spell in December/January, which occurred when farmers were still planting; · High cost of inputs, such as fertilizers and certified seed; · Shortage of fuel used in land preparation; and · Delays in payment of farmers by Grain Marketing Board, causing cash-flow problems for farmers and reducing their ability to buy production inputs.

The area planted to maize, sorghum, and mhunga in 2000/01 decreased from last year’s area by 12, 38, and 50 percent, respectively. The area planted to maize decreased by 4 percent and that of sorghum by 25 percent from the 1990s average. The total area planted to maize has remained at about 50 percent compared with 55 percent, on average, in the 1990s. The area planted to soyabeans increased by 136 percent, sunflowers by 66 percent, and groundnuts 4 percent over last year. This increase in area planted is attributed to lucrative producer prices offered for these crops and the input credit scheme offered by organizations such as Reapers for groundnuts; the Grain Marketing Board for maize, groundnuts, and beans; and the Cotton Company of Zimbabwe for cotton and groundnuts. Cotton area decreased by 3 percent compared with last year but increased by 48 percent compared with the 1990s because more 6 farmers are venturing into cotton as a cash crop. For example, 70 percent of smallholder farmers in Mwenezi District (Masvingo Province) are now growing the crop.

Table 1. Area Planted to Crops in All Sectors in 2000/01

2000/01 CA & Others 1999/2000 1990s % CA & 2000/01 as 2000/01 as %

Total Area Area (Ha) in Area (Ha) Average Other of % of of 1990s Crop (Ha) 2000/01 Area (Ha) Total 1999/00 Average Maize 1,247,561 1,167,561 1,416,700 1,301,440 94% 88% 96% Sorghum 108,999 105,049 175,230 145,723 96% 62% 75% Rapoko 57,088 57,088 38,400 71,861 100% 257% 138% Mhunga 98,840 98,840 115,100 159,770 100% 50% 36% Groundnuts 279,657 275,676 268,100 177,775 99% 104% 157% Cotton 385,268 360,268 396,203 260,393 94% 97% 148% S/flower 44,111 43,111 26,500 107,107 98% 166% 41% Soybean 85,997 23,174 36,490 55,418 27% 236% 155% Beans 23,574 20,997 89% Tobacco 85,539 15,950 90,769 84,661 19% 94% 101% Total 2,502,163 2,183,654 2,563,492 2,364,148 87% 98% 106% Source: NEWU-AGRITEX Note: CA & Others refers to Communal, resettlement, small-scale commercial, small-scale irrigation and urban areas.

At the communal area level, the following districts planted less than 50 percent of the 1990s average under crops: Umguza, Matobo, Beitbridge and Insiza Districts in Matebeleland South Province; Chiredzi in Masvingo Province; Mberengwa, Gweru, Shurugwi and Zvishavane Districts in Midlands Province; Wedza, Seke and Chikomba Districts in Mashonaland East Province; Murehwa in Mashonaland East; and Kariba and Kadoma Districts in Mashonaland West Province. Most of these districts also planted fewer grain crops than the 1990s average. The low level of plantings in these districts is mainly attributed to the lack of inputs and the late start to the season in the southern districts of the country.

3.2. Crop Production Prospects for 2000/01

3.2.1. Grain Production

The potential grain production this season is approximately 1.27 million metric tons (MT), of which 68 percent comes from the smallholder sector. The potential production represents a 42 percent decrease from production last year and a 32 percent decrease from the 1990s average production (Table 2). Compared with grain production in the 1990s, the 2000/01 grain production surpasses only the 1991/92 and 1994/95 harvests. The decrease in production is attributed to a 50 percent decrease in maize-production in the large-scale commercial sector, a decrease in communal and resettlement sector area cultivated, and a decrease in millets and sorghum production in all sectors. 7

Table 2: Production Potential (based on 1997/98 Average Yields)

CA & Others 2000/01 1999/2000 1990s 2000/01 as 2000/01 as CA & Others 2000/01 National National Average % of % of 90s Harvest as % Crop Harvest (MT) Harvest (MT) Harvest (MT) Harvest (MT) 1999/00 Average of National Maize 822,454 1,222,454 2,040,000 1,705,967 60% 72% 67 Sorghum 15,722 27,296 103,329 83,214 26% 33% 58 Rapoko 10,659 10,659 13,860 26,888 77% 40% 100 Mhunga 10,680 10,680 29,030 56,661 37% 19% 100 G/nuts 68,765 75,660 190,890 91,878 40% 82% 91 Cotton 291,847 354,347 374,354 224,663 95% 158% 82 S/flower 16,659 17,411 15,750 35,498 111% 49% 96 E/beans 12,699 13,455 94 Soybean 12,412 144,622 143,592 97,841 101% 148% 9 Tobacco 15,649 191,080 227,728 213,621 84% 89% 8 Grains 859,515 1,271,089 2,186,219 1,872,696 58% 68% 68

Source: National Early Warning Unit Note: CA & Others refers to Communal, resettlement, small-scale commercial, small-scale irrigation and urban areas.

3.2.2. Cash Crops

In general, most cash crop production in the country has declined compared with the 1990s average and last year. The exceptions were soyabeans and sunflowers, where soyabeans increased by 48 percent and 1 percent compared with the 1990s and 2000/01, and sunflowers increased by 11 percent over last year but declined by 51 percent from the 1990s average. Groundnuts and cotton production, mainly grown in the communal sector, has declined by 5 percent compared with last year because of problems of acquiring inputs and their high cost.

4. Food-Security Prospects in 2001/02

Zimbabwe will have a food deficit of about 460,000 MT of maize in the 2001/02 consumption year (April 2001-March 2002), excluding the desired level of 500,000 MT in the Strategic Grain Reserve. At the sub-national level, there are potential food security problems in communal areas of most of Matebeleland South, Midlands, and Masvingo Provinces. The Government needs to assess the production deficit of the affected communal areas to determine the extent of the food insecurity problem in these areas.

4.1. Food Security at National Level

Zimbabwe is likely to have carryover grain stocks of 380,880 MT entering the 2001/02 marketing year, which starts on April 1, 2001. Based on a potential harvest of 1.27 million MT of grain (excluding wheat and rice), a total of 1.7 million MT of grain would be available during the 2001/02 consumption year. Given the domestic consumption requirement of about 2.2 million MT, of which about 2 million MT is made up of maize, the country will have a maize-equivalent deficit of around 458,570 MT, excluding the Strategic Grain Reserve requirement of 500,000 MT (Table 3). On this basis, the potentially available maize from production and carryover stocks 8 will last the country until mid -January 2002. This deficit could easily be met by imports if the availability of foreign currency were no longer a problem.

Table 3: Food Balance Sheet (Maize, Millets, and Sorghum) for the 2001/02 (April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002) Marketing Year Maize Millets All Grain A. Potential Domestic Availability 1,662,454 52,515 1,714,969 Formal Opening Stocks (April 2001) 380,000 880 380,880 Gross Harvest Production 1,222,454 48,635 1,271,089 Unmonitored Stocks: Farmers & Other (estimate) 60,000 3,000 63,000 B. Annual Requirements 2,008,491 165,045 2,173,536 Gross Consumption Requirement 1,523,491 165,045 1,688,536 Livestock, other uses and losses 485,000 - 485,000 C. Domestic Balance (DB) (A - B) (346,037) (112,530) (458,567) D. Cross Substitution (112,530) 112,530 - E. Cereal Exports to date (estimate) - - - F. Cereal Imports to date (estimate) - - - G. Forecasted Closing Stocks (March 2002) (458,567) - (458,567)

H. Strategic Reserve Requirement (SGR) 500,000 - 500,000 I. Imports Required to Cover the SGR and DB (March 2002) 958,567 - 958,567 J. Official Stocks as at the end of March 2001 (estimate) 380,000 880 380,880 Assumptions Est. mid-year population 12,695,758 12,695,758 12,695,758 Est. Human Annual Consumption Req. (Kg/Person) 120 13 133

Source: FEWS NET and NEWU

4.2. Food Security Prospects at Sub National Levels

Communal area production in at least 41 districts cannot meet the basic grain consumption requirements of 166 kg per capita. The districts in this category are mainly in Matebeleland South Province. The number of districts not meeting the minimum requirements was estimated at 30 using the 1990s average. The increase in the number of districts not meeting the basic consumption requirements from own production is explained by a decrease in per capita grain production in 2000/01 compared with the 1990s average.

However, some of the deficit-production districts, especially the southern districts of Matebeleland South, Midlands, and Masvingo Provinces, and the northern districts of Matebeleland North Province, usually do not meet their per capita consumption requirements from own production. This makes the situation all the more alarming for districts in the middle of the country, such as Kwekwe, Gweru, Lupane, Mutare, Zaka, Bikita and Gutu, which normally produce their own requirements but did not this season. The situation is also worrisome in the normally deficit districts in the country as per capita grain production in some of these districts dropped more than 50 percent, reducing the contribution of grain to food access. All in all, per capita production in 28 districts fell below 50 percent of the respective average per capita production in the 1990s. These districts are spread throughout the country and all districts in Matebeleland South Province.

4.3. Current Food Access in Rural Areas

In February, the price of maize grain sold by farmers in communal areas ranged from Z$3.60 to Z$13.89 per kg, depending on availability. The most frequently occurring price was Z$8.33 per kg. This indicates a general shortage of grain in most areas as traders buy maize from the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) at Z$6.80 to Z$7.20 per kg for selling to consumers. Prices in most communal areas are abnormally high during this time of the year, as most farmers should be relying on drying grain from this year’s mature crop. Maize prices are highest in the deficit provinces of Masvingo, Matebeleland South, and Midlands, whose harvest was reduced last year by cyclone Eline. Prices are relatively low in the Mashonaland Provinces and Manicaland Province. The lowest maize price can be found in some communal areas of Mudzi District, where it is being sold at Z$3.60 per kg (Table 4).

Table 4: Maize Grain Prices in February 2001

Province District Maize Price Maize price Z$/Kg (Z$/Bucket) Manicaland Chimanimani 150 8.33 Makoni 150 8.33 Buhera 150 8.33 Mutare 70 to 150 3.89 to 8.33 Mash East Chikomba 80 to 100 4.44 to 5.56 Murehwa 80 to 100 4.44 to 5.56 Mudzi 65 to 120 3.60 to 6.67 Mash Central Mazowe 100 to 120 5.56 to 6.67 Muzarabani 150 8.33 Mt. Darwin 100 to 120 5.56 to 6.67 Mash West Kariba 150 8.33 Zvimba 80 to 120 4.44 to 6.67 Makonde 150 8.33 Chegutu 140 7.78 Masvingo Mwenezi 190 to 240 10.56 to 13.33 Zaka 170 to 200 9.44 to 11.11 Bikita 150 to 200 8.33 to 11.11 Mat South Plumtree 200 11.11 Insiza 200 to 250 11.11 to 13.89 Beitbridge 200 to 250 11.11 to 13.89 Midlands Shurugwi 150-180 8.33 to 10.00 Gokwe South 150 8.33

Source: Crop and Livestock Report

Current food security in most rural areas is fair, as most households are now relying on their recently harvested field crops for their consumption. In addition, the Department of Social Welfare started food-for-work programs in February in eight districts: Beitbridge, Gwanda, Bulilimamangwe, and Matobo Districts in Matebeleland South Province; Mvuma and Mberengwa Districts in Midlands Province; and Mwenezi and Chiredzi Districts in Masvingo Province. A total of Z$1 million has been allocated per district under the program. Under the program each household gets about Z$250 after working for five days.

Most of the districts benefiting from the food-for-work program have been identified as potentially food insecure in the 2001/02 consumption year. An analysis done as part of the Crop Assessment Report of March 2001 indicates that households in number of districts have lost substantial income and may not be able to compensate this loss by any of their usual 10 coping mechanisms. Comparison of per capita Maize Equivalent Income (MEI) from crops in 2000/01 production with the 1990s average indicated that some districts lost more than 60 percent of their normal crop income (Figure 2). People in these districts, scattered throughout the country but mainly in Matebeleland South and Matebeleland North, Masvingo and Midlands Provinces, are likely to be food insecure. Needs assessments have to be conducted in the districts that are highly food insecure to determine the numbers of people affected.

Figure 2: Potentially Food Insecure Communal Areas in 2001/02, by District

Source: FEWS NET Based on loss of maize equivalent income from 1990s average for all crops: These figures will be revised during the season, as more data become available. Loss of > 60% — Very high chance of finding food insecure households Loss of 30 to 60% — High chance of finding food insure households Loss of 1 to 30% — Normal food insecure households exist Equal 1990s Average or Increased — Cases of food insecure households as usual

5. Socioeconomic Environment

The fuel supply situation in the country has deteriorated, with long queues forming at service stations. In addition, the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority has started to ration power to consumers. These shortages are attributed to shortages of foreign currency to import fuel and electricity. Foreign currency shortages are attributed to a fall in tourism receipts and the weak Zimbabwe dollar, which makes all imports expensive.

The Zimbabwe dollar has remained pegged at 55 dollars to the U.S. dollar, while it is trading at Z$85-Z$90 in parallel markets. The Government has been reluctant to devalue the Zimbabwe 11 dollar. The foreign currency shortfall could hamper the Government’s ability to import wheat and maize to make up the production shortfall later in the 2001/02 consumption year.

6. Food-Security Issues to Consider Immediately

The following food security issues require urgent attention:

¨ The Government needs to conduct food needs assessments by June in the districts likely to be food insecure in the 2001/02 consumption year. ¨ The Grain Marketing Board needs import more than 458,000 MT of maize to meet basic consumption requirements before the end of November 2001 to ensure adequate stocks in the country in 2001/02. ¨ Government and NGOs need to assess the nature and magnitude of urban food security before the end of the year.