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Special Issue: After Copenhagen Volume 6 – Number 1 – February 2010 Special Issue: After Copenhagen Reducing emissions in New Zealand Two Cheers for Research after Copenhagen Terry Stokes 16 Phil O’Reilly 3 ACC the lessons from History The Copenhagen Climate Conference: Susan St John 23 It Still Takes Two to Tango Peter Neilson Free Allocation in the New Zealand 6 Emissions Trading Scheme A Critical Analysis REDD Progress at Copenhagen Christina Hood 30 Mark Belton 8 Electoral Finance Reform in New Zealand: International Emissions Policy and Agriculture A Need for a Conceptual Framework Paul Melville 11 Alec Mladenovic 37 A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Geoff Keey 13 – partly because national targets will lack stringency, and partly because there will be Editorial insufficient incentives for investment in green technologies. This issue of PQ includes brief perspectives on the Copenhagen conference from five Note contributors: Phil O’Reilly (the chief executive of Business New Zealand), Peter Neilson (the Volume 6 – Number 1 – February 2010 Welcome to this new issue of Policy Quarterly chief executive of the New Zealand Business (PQ). We hope you find the new format Council for Sustainable Development), Mark Policy Quarterly (PQ) is targeted at readers appealing and accessible. With the recent Belton (the managing director of Permanent in the public sector, including politicians and retirement and resignation of various academic Forests International, and a leading expert their staff, public servants and a wide variety of staff in the School of Government and the on forestry issues), Paul Melville (a policy professions, together with others interested in appointment and five new staff members, analyst with the Fonterra Cooperative public issues. Its length and style are intended we have taken the opportunity to refresh the Group) and Geoff Keey (the political advisor to make the journal accessible to busy readers. editorial board of PQ. Paul Callister remains on for Greenpeace New Zealand). As these The journal welcomes contributions of the board, and is joined by four new members: contributions highlight, the Copenhagen about 4,000 words, written on any topic Dr David Bromell, Dr Valentina Dinica, Dr conference was not a complete failure, with relating to public policy and management. Michael Di Francesco and Dr Mike McGinnis. I good progress on a number of important Articles submitted will be reviewed by am very grateful to those who have contributed issues – especially on measures to address members of the journal’s Editorial Board and/or their services to PQ in the recent past (i.e. deforestation and the establishment of the by selected reviewers, depending on the topic. editing and reviewing submissions) and those Global Alliance to address greenhouse gas Although issues will not usually have single who have offered to assist during the next few emissions from the agricultural sector. The themes, special issues may be published from years. problem, of course, will be how to maintain time to time on specific or general themes, I would also like to thank the School of the momentum on these issues if the wider perhaps to mark a significant event. In such Government Trust for its generous agreement negotiating framework remains highly cases, and on other occasions, contributions to fund the bulk of the direct costs of uncertain. may be invited from particular people. publishing PQ for the next three years. This This issue of PQ also includes contributions Subscriptions: The journal is available in PDF places PQ on a firm financial footing and on four other important issues. Terry Stokes, format on the IPS website: www.vuw.ac.nz/ips/ significantly reduces the extent to which the pq. Readers who wish to receive it by email the head of the School of Government, IPS will need to seek other sources of funding. should register as PQ subscribers discusses the relative weighting of research [email protected]. This service is free. As we enter 2010 and a new decade, and teaching in universities and suggests For all subscription and membership enquiries there is a plethora of important international changes to the performance-based research please e-mail [email protected] or post to and domestic policy issues confronting New fund (PBRF) in the interests of ensuring that Institute of Policy Studies, P.O. Box 600, Zealand. On the global front, critical issues applied research is not disadvantaged. Susan Wellington. include the regulation of financial markets, St John considers the recent controversy over Electronic Access: The IPS directs interested managing the large fiscal deficits that have the full-funding of accident compensation individuals to its website: www.vuw.ac.nz/ arisen in the wake of the financial crisis in late in New Zealand and argues that the current ips/index.aspx where details of the Institute’s 2008 and early 2009 (and the related risks policy framework is misguided. Christina publications and upcoming events can be of default in the case of certain European Hood evaluates the National-led government’s found. countries), and responding to the rise of China key change to the emissions trading scheme Permission: In the interest of promoting debate as an economic giant (including the related at the end of 2009, namely the shift from and wider dissemination, the IPS encourages issues of trade, exchange rate management historical grand-parenting of free units to an use of all or part of the papers appearing in and global economic governance). uncapped production-based allocation, and PQ, where there is no element of commercial Addressing the consequences of the UN questions the fiscal sustainability, equity and gain. Appropriate acknowledgement of both climate change conference in Copenhagen will environmental effectiveness of the new policy. author and source should be made in all also be high on the agenda. Plainly, progress Finally, in the context of the current review cases. The IPS retains copyright. Please direct was much less than many had hoped. of the legislation governing electoral finance, requests for permission to reprint articles from Accordingly, the immediate prospects of the Alec Mladenovic explores the philosophical this publication to [email protected]. global community successfully concluding a principles that should guide how democracies new, legally-binding multilateral agreement Editor: Jonathan Boston regulate the funding of political parties and (whether a Kyoto-plus or a new protocol) to Editorial Board: David Bromell, Paul Callister, electoral campaigns. Fundamentally, he argues Valentina Dinica, Michael Di Francesco, Mike take effect when the first commitment period that more attention needs to be given to the McGinnis and Jim Veitch under the Kyoto Protocol expires at the end principle of political equality, in particular ISSN: 1176 - 8797 (Print) of 2012 are now poor. In the medium-term, the norm of equal opportunities for political ISSN: 1176 - 4325 (Online) of course, much will depend on domestic influence. Volume 6, Number 1 – February 2010 policy developments in the US: if the Senate A variety of important policy issues Design & Layout: Aleck Yee eventually passes legislation establishing a will be canvassed in future issues of PQ, Production: Alltex Design comprehensive and effective emissions trading including the likelihood of special issues scheme, then there is a reasonable chance addressing the following subjects: regulatory of negotiating a satisfactory multilateral post- policy frameworks and the advantages and 2012 arrangement; but if not, then the days of disadvantages of a Regulatory Responsibility relying on multilateral approaches to mitigate Act; the funding and consequences of climate change look bleak. Instead, there may infrastructure investment; ethics and be no alternative but to rely on a bottom-up public policy; political finance and related approach, based on domestic, bilateral and constitutional issues; and health policy issues. regional arrangements. These are most unlikely Papers on other policy-related matters are, of Cover Photo © Kristian Buus / Greenpeace to deliver the level of emission reductions that http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/ course, always welcome. many leading scientist consider necessary campaigns/climate-change if we are to avoid dangerous climate change Jonathan Boston Page 2 – Policy Quarterly – Volume 6, Issue 2 – February 2010 Phil O’Reilly1 Reducing emissions in New Zealand after Copenhagen The outcomes from Copenhagen were less definite than many not occupy a commensurate leadership role among developed nations, having hoped. The major disappointment was in not achieving an arrived at the conference without a clear internationally agreed CO2 reduction target, and everything position on emissions reductions. Without a domestic agreement on the else flowed from that, including not much progress towards issue, the US was not in a position to lead others on the global stage. Before the US international emissions trading. can take that role in the future it must pass domestic legislation to limit emissions, But there were some good outcomes. From The importance of food security was and with increased political opposition to a New Zealand perspective the progress also recognised. More generally, there were the Obama administration at home, this towards rules on land use was helpful. It is advancements in international thinking might not be easily achieved. imperative that rural landowners are not around relevant issues and a shared This does not mean we will never unnecessarily hindered by unsympathetic commitment to ongoing work. These are get international emissions trading. rules preventing them from changing all positive. There is a groundswell in favour of it in the use of their land from forestry to We also learned more about what many countries and some form of trade agriculture. would be required to get emissions trading emerging between at least some nations There was also a win for New Zealand operating among more countries. is likely in the medium term. So should in prompting the formation of a group To a certain extent this boils down we, as some suggest, do nothing about of countries prepared to undertake to future actions by the US and China.
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