Ulverston and Low Furness Local Area Partnership (LAP)
Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2014 Findings
Ulverston and Low Furness LAP – Information from the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Update 2014
1.0 Introduction
SHMAs provide an evidence base as required under the National Planning Policy Framework and by National Planning Practice Guidance 2014 to support planning and housing policies. South Lakeland District Council commissioned Arc4 to update the 2011 SHMA for which a household survey was undertaken. The update used the original survey reweighted according to the 2011 census household and tenure profiles. Additionally, a review of the secondary data such as house prices, incomes, lettings data and population projects was undertaken to inform the final report.
The data is statistically valid at a Housing Market Area (HMA) level. Whilst data can be extracted at a lower level this does not have the same statistical validity as the HMA level data so this should be noted. However, the data does give some steer as to the type and size of housing households are looking for.
Housing Market Areas were defined in South Lakeland taking into account Government guidance on topography, travel to work areas and migration. There are six identified HMAs in South Lakeland:-
• Kendal • Ulverston and Furness • Cartmel Peninsula • Central Lakes • Dales • Rural Kendal
Ulverston and Furness HMA includes the parishes of Ulverston, Aldingham, Duddon, Egton with Newland, Mansriggs and Osmotherley, Kirkby Ireleth, Lowick, Pennington, Urswick. Where information is available from the data for the parishes contained within Ulverston and Low Furness LAP this has been used, however, the affordable need is only available at the HMA level as described above. In order to obtain more information on affordable housing need within the LAP consideration could be given at commissioning a 100% parish survey covering the parishes required.
2.0 Demography
The impact of in-migration is the strongest in the Ulverston and Furness market area with in-migrants primarily from Barrow-in-Furness, Elsewhere in the North West and Elsewhere in the UK. Of households intending to move in the next five years 57.3% wish to stay within the same HMA.
The number of residents working outside of the Ulverston and Furness HMA stands at 38.2% of which 31.6% work in Barrow-in-Furness so the evidence demonstrates the connectivity with Barrow-in-Furness.
3.0 The General Housing Market
3.1 Tenure
Data from the 2014 SHMA shows the following split between tenure within Ulverston and Furness LAP area shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1 Tenure Aldingham Egton with Pennington Ulverston Urswick Summary Newland, Mansrigg & Osmotherley Owner 538 536 1034 3900 652 Occupied Private 24 119 119 789 211 Rented Social Rented 24 102 0 699 293
3.2 Market Demand
The 2014 Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) demonstrates that in Ulverston and Furness HMA the general housing market is relatively balanced compared to the other HMAs in South Lakeland. That is that the turnover of dwellings, development that has taken place and development that is planned is in line with the demand. In Ulverston and Furness there is an annual turnover of 6% of dwellings. However, there are two property types where demand outstrips supply. These are for 1 bedroom flats and detached houses as demonstrated on Table 2 below.
Table 2 Ulverston Cartmel Central Kendal and Peninsula Lakes Dales Kendal Rural Furness Total Total 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 Owner Occupied 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.1
Tenure Private Rented 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.5 One 0.7 0.7 2.1 9.3 0.7 0.5 0.7 Two 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 Three 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0
Property size Four or more 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 Detached Hse 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Semi Det Hse 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 Terraced Hse 1.4 1.2 2.5 2.6 0.7 1.4 1.6 Flat (inc bedsits) 2.2 2.4 1.8 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.3
Property type Bungalow 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9
<0.5 Demand exceeds supply and particular pressure on stock 0.5 - <1 Demand exceeds supply and some pressure on stock 1 > Demand equals supply; demand likely to be satisfied
3.2.1 Households intending to move
Table 3 shows all existing households including those in need of affordable and market housing who intend to move within the next five years.
Table 3 Intend to Aldingham Egton with Pennington Ulverston Urswick Total Move Newland, Mansriggs & Osmotherley Yes 156 104 295 978 256 1789 No 418 615 833 3980 835 6681 Would like to 12 38 24 430 66 570 move but unable to Total 586 535 1152 5388 1157 8818
Table 4 shows the size of property that households would like to move to from the above.
Table 4 Bedroom Aldingham Egton with Pennington Ulverston Urswick Total Size Newland, Mansriggs & Osmotherley One 0 0 0 0 14 14 Two 38 14 94 391 82 619 Three 52 52 78 310 118 610 Four 66 14 109 226 28 443 Five or 0 24 0 34 0 58 more Total 156 104 281 961 242 1744
By comparison Table 5 shows the size of property that households would expect to move to which is perhaps more reflective of price and availability.
Table 5 Bedroom Aldingham Egton with Pennington Ulverston Urswick Total Size Newland, Mansriggs & Osmotherley One 12 0 0 117 98 227 Two 40 14 80 274 89 497 Three 80 76 94 296 28 574 Four 0 14 80 144 28 266 Five or 0 0 0 17 0 17 more Total 132 104 254 848 243 1581
Table 6 shows the 1st choice of areas where households are intending to move.
Table 6 Parish Total Ulverston 995 Aldingham 28 Egton with Newland, Mansrigg 24 & Osmotherley Pennington 24 Urswick 181 Total 1252
4.0 Affordable Housing Need
The 2014 SHMA Update shows that 27% of the affordable housing need arises in the Ulverston and Furness HMA. The majority of this need is for smaller 1 and 2 bedroom accommodation. Table 7 below shows the breakdown of affordable need. NB this represents the annual need which would be projected over a five year period, i.e. the total need over five years is 925 in Ulverston and Furness giving the annual figure of 185.
Table 7 Housing Smaller 1/2 Larger 3+ Older People Total Market bedroom bedroom 1/2 bedrooom Ulverston and 101 75 9 185 Furness Total (all HMAs) 425 182 80 687
This shows consistency with data from the Housing Register. Of the 3470 applicants registered on Cumbria Choice as at 1.4.14 across the whole District, 3003 applicants require 1 or 2 bedroom accommodation. Table 8 shows registrations broken down to the rural areas within Ulverston and Low Furness LAP area, Swarthmoor and the town of Ulverston.
Table 8 Area 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4 Bed 5 Bed Total Ulverston and 8 6 3 0 0 17 Furness (Rural) Swarthmoor 6 7 2 0 0 15 Ulverston 251 117 59 3 0 430 Total 265 130 64 3 0 462
Tables 7 and 8 demonstrate that around half of people in housing need, i.e. 463, are not registered with Cumbria Choice.
5.0 Housing Supply
5.1 Second Homes and Holiday Homes
The 2014 SHMA reports that in the Ulverston and Furness HMA 3.9% of homes in Ulverston Town and 9.0% of homes in the rural areas are second homes or holiday homes.
5.2 Empty Homes
Table 9 shows the latest figures as at 31 August 2014 for the LAP area. This shows how many empty homes are contained within each Parish and the length of time they have been empty for.
Table 9 Parish TOTAL 2014 2013 2012+ Aldingham 12 2 3 7 Egton Mansriggs & 16 4 5 7 Osmotherley
Pennington 10 4 6 Ulverston 92 14 31 47 Urswick 15 3 3 9
TOTAL Empty Homes 145 23 46 76 in area
6.0 Land Allocations within the LAP
The following sites are identified with the Land Allocations Development Plan Document
• Little Urswick – LA1.3 – Mid Town Farm • Swarthmoor – Land off Cross-a-Moor • Ulverston – large site allocations at Croftlands, Stone Cross Mansion, Morecambe Road Scrapyard, North of Watery Lane, West End Nursery, South Lund Farm, North Urswick Road
Development Briefs are being prepared for Croftlands site and Swarthmoor to steer development and this has been subject to public consultation. Development Briefs are likely to be in place by the end of 2014.