S1947/456119 Administration

www.africa-confidential.com 18 March 2021 - Vol 62 - N° 6 - online edition

AFRICA/COVID-19 BLUE LINES

The Integrated Review of Sparring for a jab Britain’s Foreign and Defence policy, announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on 16 March, carries mixed messages for Africa. Beyond its tilt towards Trade and production deals may help the region’s vaccination drive in the south-east Asia, Britain wants short term more than lobbying for changes to the IP and patent laws to boost relations with a narrow band of African countries. The he challenge to access vaccines the continent must not find itself in review ranks Africa second to against Covid-19 is not just an African this position again. Contacted by Africa the Indo-Pacific region as a T problem, it is a global battle. But it Confidential this week, he cited factories ‘dynamic’ player and promises has shone a spotlight on the complexities in South Africa, Egypt, Senegal and to ‘revitalise’ economic that Africa faces when it is competing for Morocco as having the potential to relations with the continent. commodities it doesn’t produce. manufacture, although he conceded that British officials have been The situation has led to calls for ‘these will need to be expanded and saying privately that the trade Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the World Trade strengthened’. and investment focus will be Organization’s new head, to make her on a select group of states first action an initiative to set aside TECH TRANSFER but until now not been explicit Intellectual Property patent laws to Producing complex biological products about which ones. South Africa, allow for greater production of Covid-19 to scale requires extraordinary Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia and vaccines ‘for the common good’ (AC Vol 62 infrastructure and processes, cell lines Ghana are the priorities when it Nos 4 & 5). Knowing she was fresh from and bacteria, all managed within hugely comes to ‘our shared prosperity heading up Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, onerous regulatory requirements to goals, our democratic values half a mile down the road from WTO HQ ensure every batch adheres to strict good and our security interests’, with in Geneva, ‘Big Pharma’ reacted quickly manufacturing practice rules. John-Arne Nigeria and East Africa singled with a high-level lobbying initiative Rottingen, Chair of the World Health out as partner priorities. All bar directed to United States President Joe Organization Solidarity Trial of Covid-19 Ethiopia are former colonies of Biden, and signed by all the leading Treatments asserts that a patent waiver Britain and all are already major manufacturers. In summary they warned is simply ‘the wrong approach’ given the trading partners with it. ‘don’t relax the law or you won’t get the complexities of production. Instead, he Kenya is promised a ‘Strategic investment that has brought us to where urges for technology transfer, in which Partnership’ focused on trade, we are today with a number of vaccines he includes non-exclusive licences such as climate change and security available in record time’. AstraZeneca has struck with the Serum cooperation. Elsewhere, Egypt The reality is that both the calls and Institute of India and Fiocruz in Brazil for and Morocco are mentioned the rebuttals miss the point. When the the manufacture of its vaccine. only in terms of climate change IP and patent issue last hit the headlines Establishing vaccine production policy, while Sudan and Somalia in the 1980s and 1990s, it was over the facilities needs to become a priority are priorities for security and pricing of HIV drugs that were off the scale for Africa, but it is not going to happen counter-terrorism. for African governments or individuals during this phase of the pandemic. Just as significant are the to afford. Today, the issue is the physical Whether split across three or four sites, or omissions. The review makes no availability of vaccines, and as Europe has from one central site, it is going to need mention of Zimbabwe or Congo- witnessed, the scrap to get supplies can to be carefully planned. Africa’s pharma Kinshasa, both countries get quite nasty. The problem is capacity, sector has been constantly frustrated where Britain thought it had, or as demand far outweighs supply. by its inability to achieve economies of wanted, influence. Nor do any As John Nkengasong, Director of scale with output that can compete with other francophone or lusophone the Africa Centres for Disease Control the big producers of India and China. In countries figure in the plan. and Prevention, has said repeatedly, part, the problem has been the regulatory

SOUTH AFRICA 2 NORTH AFRICA/US 4 KENYA 6 CONGO-B 7 SENEGAL 8 BURKINA FASO 9

The plot United States Raila’s weak Trafigura’s Property of Asempa Limited against Cyril special feature grip middleman TANZANIA, The President’s foes What the new US The perennial candidate The trader funnelled CÔTE D’IVOIRE in the ruling party are administration means wants his ‘handshake’ huge loans and oil UGANDA, building a credible for four key North to propel him to the payments through an POINTERS 10-14 coalition to depose him African countries presidency intermediary

Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration red tape of dealing with 54 countries, and cross-border impediments. The nascent Africa Medicines Agency, currently being piloted through the African Union by its Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) should significantly speed up drug and vaccine registration procedure but while its legal instruments have been adopted by member states, as ever for implementation, the devil is in the detail. At a recent high-level meeting of the implementation steering group, a senior WHO consultant cautioned delegates that ‘setting up the European Medicines Agency (EMA) took 30 years’. It is going to take time.

BOTTLENECKS On cross-border issues, the challenge will be the effectiveness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). If trade bottlenecks continue, Africa’s ability to manage its own problems will remain significantly impaired. The Serum Institute of India is already the biggest global vaccine manufacturer and its CEO, Adar Poonawalla is challenging anyone to beat his company on price. This is the dilemma. If Africa spends big money on quality home-spun vaccine production it has to be sure that its output prices are internationally competitive. If they fail, then the business will fail. The impact of Covid-19 on Africa has been much lighter than originally feared, with official figures indicating only about 4% of global coronavirus deaths occurred on the continent. the African Development Bank, and these areas is where energy needs to But as a third wave of the Covid-19 Trevor Manuel, ex-Minister of Finance be focused. virus hits countries like Kenya, amid from South Africa, were among 23 Already one significant viral speculation about the effects on them signatories of a recent open letter to mutation has emerged from Africa, of neighbouring Tanzania’s rogue the Group of 20 calling for a series of and others will no doubt crop up so Covid-19 status, there is no room for financial and economic measures to long as the virus is uncontained on the complacency (AC Vol 61 No 10). enable equitable vaccine roll-out across continent. The global cost of this could Experts including luminaries such Africa, and to stabilise the economic be many more times than the cost of as Donald Kaberuka, ex-head of fall-out of the pandemic. Traction in assistance now. l

SOUTH AFRICA Zuma faction is to build a coalition ahead of the party’s next national elective conference in 2022 to unseat The plot against Cyril Ramaphosa from the ANC leadership. Health experts predict, however, that a third and fourth wave of Covid-19 may sweep the country, which could The President’s foes in the ruling party are building a credible enable Ramaphosa to postpone the coalition to depose him and return supporters of Zuma to power conference to 2023. This would be a blow to the Magashule-Zuma camp, ormer President Jacob Zuma and as remote as many assume, insiders which is building momentum for a the African National Congress say. Ramaphosa supporters may be special national elective conference Secretary-General Ace Magashule, underestimating their enemies, who now, provision for which exists in the

F Property of Asempa Limited who are both facing multiple corruption are well-placed in the party structures, ANC constitution in the event of a major charges, have launched an open, know how to use them, and have a party crisis. brazen campaign to unseat President formidable reputation for organisation, They argue that the pandemic Cyril Ramaphosa from the presidency the insiders say. His opponents also and the economic crisis are sufficient of the party, and then the state. The have nothing to lose. grounds to call a special conference campaign’s prospects of success are not The first object of the Magashule- which they believe they would win.

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Alternatively, if the ANC does as poorly argues, not unconvincingly in some as expected in the local elections, party members’ eyes, that the fight AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL scheduled between 3 August and against them is, in reality, political. 37 John’s Mews, London WC1N 2NS, UK 3 November, the Magashule-Zuma The Magashule-Zuma group claims Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 camp would use this to demand an Ramaphosa is against them because he Editor: Patrick Smith emergency conference. is protecting his own business interests Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir The faction has its eyes on the and those of ‘white monopoly capital’, Website Editor: Juliet Amissah party’s National General Council, which and Western ‘imperialists’ opposed to Published fortnightly since 1960 25 issues per year takes place between ANC national South Africa’s global alignment with www.africa-confidential.com elective conferences and is scheduled the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. ISSN 0044-6483 for mid-year, possibly June, after it was China and South Africa) countries (AC All material is copyright Africa Confidential. postponed last year due to the pandemic. Vol 58 No 10). The World Bank and the The NGC cannot eject leaders, but the International Monetary Fund and their Magashule-Zuma group is trying to neo-liberal ‘austerity agenda’ are also nationalisation, Zimbabwe-style land mobilise enough votes to turn it into a involved, the faction says. reform and debt-financed development. special national elective conference (AC Another strand of the strategy posits Zuma and Magashule also have allies Vol 62 No 1). This was the tactic Zuma Magashule and Zuma as the strong, in the cabinet, and even Ramaphosa’s used when he succeeded in ousting ‘real’ core of the ANC, while Ramaphosa supporters sometimes criticise him Thabo Mbeki as party leader in 2007, is an ‘outsider’, a weak figure firmly for not imposing his authority, giving and then as President (AC Vol 49 No 2). controlled by white business and credence to the argument that he is Time is not on the Magashule-Zuma Western governments. Ramaphosa ‘weak’. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the group’s side. Zuma stands trial with the refuses to engage in ideological warfare. Minister of Cooperative Governance French arms company, Thales, on 17 And while Ramaphosa emphasises and Traditional Affairs who narrowly May (AC Vol 59 No 7). He also faces the ‘unity’, Magashule and Zuma have come lost to Ramaphosa in the ANC possibility of a two-year jail sentence into more and more open confrontation leadership contest, has contradicted for contempt of court for refusing to with the ANC and the President. Earlier the President within the cabinet and appear before the Zondo Commission this month, Magashule told ANC MPs in public, leading him to back down of inquiry into state capture (AC Vol 62 they should not vote with the opposition on his own policies. The most obvious No 4). Magashule’s trial, with others, on Democratic Alliance to impeach the case was when she insisted on a ban charges of fraud, corruption and money Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane, on tobacco sales during the lockdown, laundering in relation to a failed 2014 a hard-core supporter of Zuma, who after Ramaphosa had publicly declared asbestos project during his time as Free appointed her for a seven-year term in the opposite (AC Vol 61 No 11). State premier is set for 11 August. 2017. But the first round of what is set to The ANC’s ‘top six’ leaders met be a long battle to dislodge Mkhwebane SCRAPPER Zuma via Zoom last week, three of them went to Ramaphosa this week after Magashule has a strong political backing Zuma, and three opposed. After parliament voted 275-40 in favour of combat record. He is a gritty fighter the meeting, Magashule said in his view an inquiry into her fitness to hold office. who has survived marginalisation by the meeting was only to hear Zuma’s The inquiry was recommended in a former presidents Nelson Mandela view, not to persuade him to appear report by an expert independent panel, and Mbeki. After every battle, he before the Commission, and it was ‘one led by former Constitutional Court judge appears to emerge stronger and closer of the best meetings ever held’ and that Bess Nkabinde, which was handed to to the ANC presidency. Zuma had no intention ‘to undermine the National Assembly Speaker, Thandi He has defied Ramaphosa, the the Constitution of South Africa’. Modise, on 25 February. The report ANC’s National Executive Committee Ramaphosa supporters were amazed at found Mkhwebane to be incompetent and its Integrity Commission. After this description of the meeting but did and guilty of misconduct, and also he appeared in court in Bloemfontein not openly contradict it. recommended she be removed from in February, he said that ‘when the office. Mkhwebane, who has also dust settles’, ‘I will still be standing’, LEGAL LEVERS been charged with perjury for lying meaning he is convinced he will win his Ramaphosa’s strategy has been not to Parliament which is the subject of a battle with Ramaphosa. to fight Magashule-Zuma openly, separate ongoing trial, will now have When it was pointed out that the NEC within the party, but to use the courts. to spend a considerable amount of time is the highest power in the party, he said After appointing new heads of the defending her track record in public. he could still defy its orders because such prosecuting authorities and giving them Zuma has begun publicly to criticise a radical decision could not be taken permission to go after corrupt senior Ramaphosa, overturning an unwritten outside a national elective conference, ANC figures there would be no need for rule in the party that former presidents and that the branches could get rid of party disciplinary measures. But he has do not criticise sitting ANC presidents. him if they wanted, but not before. failed to get any ANC leaders accused of Zuma, however, said the Ramaphosa The ANC branches have yet to vote corruption to step aside from party and government was ‘soft’ on hardened on the resolution to have leaders facing government posts until after their cases criminals. He criticised the justice corruption charges step aside, rather are finalised. system, saying it undermined social than simply when they are convicted. Ramaphosa also tried to use cohesion, and said that the government If Magashule wins this vote, it will be the ANC’s Integrity Commission to lacks the will to tackle ‘structural a major fillip to his campaign and discipline corrupt members, also in challenges’ such as land reform, and would be taken as a rehearsal for the the teeth of fierce opposition from racial and economic inequality. vote that would, his supporters hope, Property of Asempa Limited Magashule and Zuma. Zuma has claimed that Ramaphosa’s remove Ramaphosa from the leadership Ramaphosa has avoided attacking winning of the ANC presidency ‘robbed of the party. his enemies frontally because he is the party of an opportunity to implement The lockdown has constrained pursuing a policy of ‘unity’, against Radical Economic Transformation’, the Magashule and Zuma’s ability to hold which the Magashule-Zuma faction label for left populist policies such as mass rallies of party members but

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Magashule has been tirelessly touring Other victims of Ramaphosa’s clear- time to mobilise against Magashule. ANC branches, mobilising supporters out have been given jobs in Magashule’s Before the new attempt by Magashule and building a branch infrastructure office, or as party officials. Insiders say and Zuma to break the Ramaphosa that will be personally loyal to him, we these people – such as former finance presidency, a proxy presidential hear, for three years now (AC Dispatches minister Malusi Gigaba – are effective succession battle was taking place behind 19-2-2021). militants for the Magashule-Zuma cause the scenes between Dlamini-Zuma and Since 1 March, when the lockdown and have been drumming up support. Health Minister Zweli Mkhize. was lowered to level 1, mass political Ramaphosa’s supporters worry Mkhize’s competent early organising has resumed, and with it an that he is not doing enough at the management of the government’s increase in the tempo of the Magashule- branch and grassroots level to counter Covid-19 health response made him Zuma group’s mobilising against his opponents in the party. Former the leading successor to President Ramaphosa. They have recruited President Mbeki, they point out, made Ramaphosa in mid-2020. Dlamini- new members and persuaded lapsed that mistake when he allowed Zuma – Zuma, meanwhile, came across as party members to rejoin. Anyone with after he had been sacked for corruption dictatorial and ideological in her any grievance against Ramaphosa or ahead of the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane banning of alcohol and tobacco sales, the government, such as those who conference – to do what Magashule is which cost thousands of jobs, when the have lost out on tenders or other ANC doing now. economy was already bleeding. patronage, or face investigation, are Senzo Mchunu, Ramaphosa’s If, however, Magashule succeeds being rallied to Magashule’s flag. And chief ally on the organising side of the against Ramaphosa, Dlamini-Zuma his position as Secretary-General gives party, lost the secretary-generalship may well be the beneficiary within the him the ideal position from which to to Magashule in 2018, but was then ANC, if she presented herself as loyal to organise rank-and-file support. His appointed head of party organising her ex-husband, while being a trusted deputy, Jessie Duarte, a close ally who and campaigns, to be the eyes and ears confidante and minister for Ramaphosa. was fiercely criticised for her leadership of Ramaphosa in the party. However, Many believe Magashule would consider of South African Airways, staunchly Mchunu is also the Minister of Public this ample compensation for forfeiting supports Magashule in public. Service and cannot devote himself full- the ultimate prize. l United States special feature What the new US administration under President Joe Biden means for four key North African countries

L I BYA failure last year to take Tripoli and now the appointment of the GNU, with which it believes it can do business. Biden’s balancing act Under the Stabilization Act, US sanctions would also have to be imposed on any foreign persons The US is threatening sanctions against spoilers, and is ready for ‘threatening the peace or stability of military action against Islamists Libya’, or involved in human rights abuses there. That poses a threat to Erdogan and the Turkish government, he political map in Libya has realised that trying to force Turkish if the new Libyan administration dramatically changed in the past President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushes for Turkish forces to leave. T few weeks. For the first time in into line by making economic threats That is where the second card comes over six years, the country has a single or imposing sanctions risked pushing in: Dubaiba has been close to Turkey administration – the government of him into Vladimir Putin’s arms. but he knows that most Libyans want all national unity (GNU) led by Abdel Biden, however, also wants to uphold foreign fighters out of the country – the Hamid Dubaiba. Chosen as prime democracy and human rights around Turks, the Russians and thousands of minister by the UN-mentored Libyan the world. In the case of Turkey, seen Syrian and Sudanese mercenaries. The Political Dialogue Forum on 5 February as democratically regressive, that latter, motivated chiefly by money, may and formally taking over on 15 March, could complicate matters. be harder to dislodge as many are not his new administration has been Biden does, however, have a card or welcome back in their home countries welcomed by the US. For Washington, two up his sleeve. The first is the Libya (AC Vol 61 No 22). the presence of a single government Stabilization Act, which now appears The ‘5+5’ Joint Military Commission simplifies dealing with the country. assured of becoming law. Under it, of top commanders set up a year ago to But Libya presents President Joe Biden anyone deemed to be ‘supporting Russian reunite Libya’s armed forces has already with the same conundrum as it did military intervention in Libya’ must be called for all foreign troops to leave. If his predecessor: how to prevent the placed under sanctions. That would put Dubaiba were to formally request it and Russians gaining a permanent foothold, General Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Turkey then refused, the Stabilization while trying to restrain Turkish eastern-based forces, in the firing line, Act would take effect. As it is, Erdogan Property of Asempa Limited ambitions to turn it into a modern-day and would make him an unviable partner appears to understand which way protectorate. Another aim has been to for the Russians. Without him, Moscow the wind in Libya is blowing. On 9 ensure the country does not shatter, would have no open door into Libya. In February, just four days after Dubaiba enabling jihadists to fill the vacuum. any event, it appears to have abandoned was appointed, he told a meeting in The Trump administration him as its ‘man in Libya’ following his Ankara that Turkish troops could be

4 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration withdrawn if others did so first. not be too happy with a 22 February options open. The Pentagon’s Africa The ground is being set for TV announcement by Russia’s Chechen Command (Africom), which is being withdrawals, but it is because of the leader Ramzan Kadyrov that Dubaiba merged with the US army’s Europe arrival of a united government in Libya, told him he wants Russia to train Libyan command, will continue to monitor and not US action. Moreover, there could be special forces. strike Islamist militants in Libya, until some uncomfortable developments for Meanwhile, the Biden administration convinced there is a government there the American administration. It may appears to be keeping other Libyan that can take on the job. l

EGYPT ‘my favourite dictator’ did the Egyptian president no favours, and while Trump Frosty formality was supportive of Egypt’s position on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, this did not help achieve a resolution (AC Vol 61 No 14). The US administration is pressuring Egypt over human rights, but Sisi has recently sought to present maintains its arms sales Egypt as a constructive actor in contentious areas such as Libya and east Mediterranean gas, and as a resident Joe Biden has been in no Although the US has maintained counterweight to Turkey. Egypt has rush to engage with the Egyptian a US$1.3 billion annual military sales also been working effectively to build a P authorities nor with other Middle grant to Egypt since the mid-1970s, broad coalition with common interests in Eastern leaders who had gained Donald the value of this aid in real terms has east Mediterranean security, including Trump’s favour. This is partly because diminished, and Egypt’s largest recent Greece, France, Germany, Cyprus the new administration has different arms deals have been with France, and both Israel and the Palestinian priorities – among which figureChina , Italy, Germany and Russia. There has Authority. The Biden administration Russia and Iran – but it also reflects his also been strong bipartisan support in will be keenly aware of the growing distaste for authoritarian regimes. the US Congress during both the Barack involvement of both Chevron and The Biden administration made its Obama and Trump presidencies for ExxonMobil in offshore gas operations first formal political contact with Egypt arms sales being made conditional on in Egypt, Israel and Cyprus. on 23 February, with a telephone call improvements in human rights (AC Vol from Secretary of State Antony Blinken 62 No 1). Blinken endorsed this linkage DEAL BACKERS to Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh in a Tweet after his call to Shoukry, The US administration’s most notable Shoukry. Blinken highlighted the ‘strong saying: ‘Our shared security interests Middle East policy moves so far have strategic partnership’ between the two must align with respect for democracy been its outreach to Iran and its rebuke countries, but he also raised concerns and human rights’. But for now the US to Saudi Arabia over Yemen and the over the repression of civil liberties in will continue to engage with Egypt on Jamal Khashoggi murder. Sisi counts Egypt and the country’s purchase of Su- regional issues, and there will be no Saudi Arabia and the United Arab 35 military aircraft from Russia. interruption of arms supplies. A few Emirates as close allies, but this does The contrast with Trump’s approach days before Blinken’s call, the State not mean that Egypt has slavishly was striking. One of the first calls Department approved a $197 million adhered to their policies. Egypt stayed that Trump made to a foreign leader missile sale to Egypt. out of the Yemen conflict, and has had after his inauguration was to Egyptian Despite the admonishments on differences with the UAE over Libya. President Abdel Fattah el Sisi, who human rights, the advent of a new US Egypt would also be likely to line up made an official visit to Washington in administration is likely to be welcomed behind initiatives to revive the Iran April 2017. by Egypt. Trump’s description of Sisi as nuclear deal. l

ALGERIA Security forces scurried to secure Algiers’ Grande Poste – the protestors’ Mutual distrust traditional rallying point – and town centres across Algeria, as El Hirak returned to the streets to celebrate the second anniversary of the uprising Algeria is unlikely to help in counter-terror efforts, and Russia is that removed President Abdelaziz ahead in Covid diplomacy Bouteflika on 22 February 2019. US oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, have eturning in February from elections and dozens of high-profile flirted with national oil company another bout of Covid treatment political prisoners have been released. Sonatrach, which is desperate to bring R in Germany, President These moves might be interpreted in investment from major companies Abdelmadjid Tebboune has sought as a nod to the new Democratic to reverse alarming declines in its to gain momentum before opposition administration, but President Joe production and exports. As the owner

El Hirak (The Movement) and factional Biden has made little impression of former Anadarko acreage, Occidental Property of Asempa Limited rivals surge up to pose new threats for on Algeria’s political class. Rather, is the largest oil producer in the key his unconvincing administration. Tebboune’s moves reflect an effort to Berkine Basin area of eastern Algeria. A reshuffle brought a few new consolidate power for a regime that The oil majors will not be reassured faces into government, Tebboune is trying to remake itself in the face by Tebboune’s sacking of Minister of has announced plans for legislative of a resurgent popular movement. Energy and Mines Abdelmadjid Attar,

Africa Confidential • 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 5 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration just eight months after the Sonatrach ‘Our alliances and friendships will be Macron’s moves to heal wounds from veteran was appointed. He was replaced as always.’ the 1954-62 war of independence, by his predecessor in the ministry, This means business as usual for antipathy towards France remains Mohammed Arkab, who does not have Algiers, where Russia remains to deep. Washington would like to see Attar’s expertise or capacity for frank the fore and China is a rising force. the resurgent Algerian military play talking (AC Vol 61 No 20). US soft power can’t outflank Russia’s a bigger role in the Sahel, which will Distrust of America is a rare factor supply of the Sputnik V vaccine, and continue to have a central part in US that unites many senior military and the promise it will be manufactured counter-terrorism strategy. But while security officials in le pouvoir (‘the in Constantine, or its domination the new constitution authorises the powers that be’) and Hirak protestors. of equipment supplied to the Armée Algerian army to deploy in peacekeeping ‘Relations will be normal, unless nationale Populaire, which is gearing missions, Algiers will likely decline, the Americans decide to pile on up to receive 16 Sukhoi Su-30 jet while Macron continues to be seen as pressures over issues that shouldn’t fighters to replace its ageing MiG-29s. the key player in Mali and other G5 concern them,’ a senior diplomat said. Despite President Emmanuel Sahel states (AC Vol 62 No 1). l

MOROCCO Monjib, who was convicted in January of fraud and endangering state security. In September, Human Rights Marred meeting of minds Watch said the jailing of journalist Omar Radi on espionage and other charges risked silencing ‘one of the few remaining critical voices in Relations warmed by green policies and economic management are Moroccan media’. undermined by Rabat’s jailing of dissidents Apart from a basic ‘reconnaissance permit’ for ConocoPhillips, US big oil resh from being elevated to In the US, there will be no let-up is not present in Morocco’s faltering the Legion of Merit by Donald in Morocco’s lobbying budget, as the upstream industry. Where Mohammed F Trump for his ‘Abraham Accords’ kingdom seeks to stave off criticism over VI and Biden can genuinely relate is policy of normalisation with Israel, human rights (AC Vol 57 No 22). Critics Morocco’s commitment to renewable King Mohammed VI has reason have hunkered down, while opposition energy, showcased by the Ouarzazate to be concerned by a Democratic bloggers and other activists have been solar farm, the largest in Africa. administration (AC Vol 62 No 2). imprisoned, some on spurious charges Financial support through the Trump’s recognition of Moroccan of sexual misbehaviour. Dissidents are International Development Finance sovereignty over the disputed Western hoping the kingdom’s need to impress Corporation and other US agencies Sahara was a quid pro quo for human rights-minded Biden will lead will remain on the table. Markets normalisation, and President Joe Biden to a let-up in the crackdown by security appreciate Finance Minister Mohamed – with a long record of pro-Israeli activity agencies, including Mohammed Benchaaboun’s management of the – is not expected to rock that boat Yassine Mansouri’s powerful economy – reflected in high demand for (AC Vol 61 No 25). Direction Générale des Études et de la sovereign bonds – while Marrakech’s The US may not be so proactive Documentation (DGED). hosting of the World Bank Group and in manning its planned consulate in Advocacy groups and think-tanks International Monetary Fund Annual Dakhla, in the Western Sahara, but then like the Carnegie Endowment for Meetings will allow officials to cosy none of the legations that have sprung International Peace have picked up up to the US Treasury and other key up in the former Spanish colony have on the struggles of human rights players. This year’s meetings have been permanent representation; they are not activists, such as the historian and postponed until October 2022 due to really there to provide consular services. Freedom Now co-founder Maâti coronavirus. l

K E N YA and 2017 – are clear (AC Vol 59 No 6). Bringing his chief political rival on board has given his second and final Raila’s weak grip term more stability, though his ‘Big Four’ legacy plans – pledges on food security, affordable housing, manufacturing and The perennial presidential candidate wants his ‘handshake’ to propel healthcare for all – have been derailed him into State House. But others have their eyes on the prize by the Covid pandemic. It also allows him to claim that he has united the country. With Deputy President William he third anniversary of the self-isolate at his home in the wealthy Ruto no longer campaigning against it, ‘handshake’ of reconciliation Karen suburb of the city. That was an the constitutional reform plan known Tbetween President Uhuru Kenyatta appropriate metaphor for the fragility of as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and veteran opposition leader Raila a pact that has reshaped Kenya’s political is almost certain to pass a referendum

Odinga passed with muted celebrations. alliances but has left open the question this summer (AC Vol 62 No 1). The Property of Asempa Limited Orange Democratic Movement leader of who will succeed President Kenyatta reforms will give more powers to Odinga spent the day in a Nairobi at elections next year. devolved counties, but will also increase hospital suffering with coronavirus, The advantages of the pact to presidential authority, leading critics though he was discharged several Kenyatta – who beat Odinga in bitterly to say they will undermine the 2010 days later with instructions to rest and contested presidential polls in 2013 constitution (AC Vol 61 No 23).

6 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

Less clear is the question of the a running mate from Mount Kenya Some of Kenyatta’s allies, succession, which has always been and the promise of a powerful prime meanwhile, suggest that Odinga cannot the main driving force behind the minister, both of whom would have to win without his former Nasa partners, handshake for Odinga after four failed be endorsed by Kenyatta. In a possible and say that the President favours presidential campaigns. The ODM nod to that scenario, Odinga has held Mudavadi to succeed him. Mudavadi demands Kenyatta’s support for Odinga, frequent meetings with Kirinyaga has done little to discourage such setting up a coronation election win in governor Anne Waiguru, while speculation, holding a series of meetings the 2022 presidential elections, but the Agriculture Secretary Peter Munya is with foreign ambassadors, and stepping President is hedging his bets. also seen as a potential kingmaker. up his visits to regional leaders. That is no surprise. The handshake Odinga retorts that the other Nasa may have boosted Odinga’s standing OLD NAMES principals did not stand by him at nationally but he remains a divisive Yet while Odinga and Ruto plot his unofficial ‘swearing in’ ceremony figure, particularly for voters from potential alliances, the field of would- following the disputed 2017 polls (AC Kenyatta’s Kikuyu ethnic group, and it is be presidential candidates is already Vol 59 No 3). still far from clear that he can build an crowded with familiar names. Amani alliance capable of winning an election National Congress leader Musalia DEBT BURDEN (AC Vol 62 No 1). Mudavadi (Odinga’s running mate in In the meantime, the confirmation Leading ODM figures such as Siaya 2007), Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, by the Treasury that it will tap Senator James Orengo are concerned Kenya African National Union’s Gideon the Eurobond market for at least that Kenyatta’s allies will dump Odinga Moi (son of Kenya’s second President 124 billion Kenyan shillings in favour of a compromise candidate. Daniel arap Moi), and Ford Kenya (US$1.24bn) to meet a groaning list As a result, they too are keeping their leader Moses Wetang’ula have created of debt repayments is a reminder that options open, with some mooting that their own ‘Sacred Alliance’ faction and while political leaders scramble to Odinga could team up with Ruto, as are conducting their own campaigning construct alliances, whoever wins at the 2007 elections – a suggestion on the BBI under the banner of a ‘One the presidency will take on a battered that has been dismissed by Ruto’s Kenya Movement’. They also plan to economy and a rapidly increasing debt close allies. field a candidate in 2022 and say that, burden. Odinga has clearly indicated that he having supported Odinga’s presidential Odinga and Ruto remain the most will run, come what may. But analysts bids in 2013 and 2017 as part of the likely to claim this dubious inheritance say that for an Odinga presidential National Super Alliance (Nasa), he but both face a path to the presidency campaign to be viable he would need should return the favour. that is strewn with obstacles. l

CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE International Monetary Fund and the Congolese authorities alike. The country Trafigura’s middleman emerges has been stumbling in and out of debt distress since the 1980s. Congo-B secured its fourth bailout from the IMF in July 2019. The deal The Swiss-based trader funnelled huge loans and oil payments was the result of years of negotiations, through an intermediary, despite bribery risks which were thrown into crisis in August 2017, when the authorities revealed $1.25bn of debt owed to Trafigura and ajor commodity trader Pétroles du Congo (SNPC), with the fellow Swiss oil trader Glencore. The Trafigura used an intermediary loans being repaid in oil. The oil- revelation sent the country’s debt-to- M for its crude oil purchases in backed loans channelled through GDP ratio rocketing by 33 percentage Congo-Brazzaville and its huge loans to the middleman could amount to over points (AC Vol 58 No 19). the country, the company announced in US$1 billion. The IMF conditioned Congo B’s its recent corporate disclosures. Trafigura said it does not ‘comment $449 million bailout on transparency The news comes two years after on commercial arrangements’, but two over public accounts and the Trafigura and fellow giant commodity sources with access to information restructuring of its oil-backed debt to traders Gunvor and Vitol committed on Congo-B’s oil sales said that the traders, which at the time comprised a to end their use of intermediaries, in intermediary is Worldwide Energy, quarter of the country’s external public the wake of revelations over the role a Dubai-based consultancy run by debt (AC Vol 60 No 15). However, the of middlemen in Brazil’s corruption French-Ivorian trader Frédéric Fatien, task has proved difficult and caused a mega-scandal, Lava Jato (Car Wash). a long-time associate and car-racing year-long delay to the disbursement of Middlemen have been central to alleged team-mate of Trafigura’s former head the second slice of the IMF loan. bribery schemes in the commodity of Africa oil trading, Roald Goethe. To date, IMF reports have indicated trading sector around the world. Publication Africa Intelligence had that SNPC contracted directly with In a previously unreported entry previously reported Worldwide’s link to the traders. However, Trafigura now in its 2020 ‘Payments to Governments’ Trafigura, saying earlier this year that reveals otherwise, and also disclosed report, Trafigura said that it has the intermediary had been buying up that its intermediary has been party to purchased crude from sub-Saharan most of Congo-B’s crude and selling it debt restructuring discussions between

Africa’s third largest oil producer via to the Swiss trader Trafigura and Congo-B. Trafigura’s Property of Asempa Limited ‘an independent third party’ for several original oil-backed loan to Congo-B, in years. As part of the same arrangement, BAILOUTS 2015, was for $1.1bn. Trafigura said it used the intermediary Trafigura’s announcement sheds light on Campaigners have warned of the to lend money to Congo-B’s state oil the structure of Congo-B’s opaque debt corruption risks associated with oil- company, the Société Nationale des burden, a subject of much angst for the backed loans, and the IMF typically

Africa Confidential • 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 7 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration forbids them under its lending terms unaccountable revenue streams to The profits have found their way in oil-rich debt-distressed countries, Congo-B President Denis Sassou- to offshore companies tied to the including Congo-B, Chad and South Nguesso and his son, Denis-Christel presidential elite. Sudan. Traders like them because they ‘Kiki’, and to avoid claims by the In 2019 Gunvor was convicted secure long-term access to oil, often at country’s creditors (AC Vol 62 No 2). in Switzerland for failing to prevent a discount, and earn them additional The inclusion of intermediaries in bribery in Congo-B and Côte d’Ivoire, profit on interest. deals adds another layer of danger, and ordered to pay $100m. It was Oil-backed loans from commodity as politically connected middlemen found to have paid millions of dollars traders have been the source of a have often secured oil or refined to middlemen. long series of scandals in Congo-B products from Congo-B at a steep Trafigura said ‘we buy and sell and elsewhere (AC Vol 51 No 5). discount, and made a handsome from/to a number of different parties They have been used to provide huge profit immediately selling it onwards. on a fully arm’s length basis’. l

SENEGAL No 9). Sonko taps into real hunger for Macky Sall buys some time change among young urban Senegalese, angry at the lack of jobs and rumours of corruption, epitomised by the bribery allegations against presidential brother Youth unemployment, corruption rumours and Ousmane Sonko’s Aliou Sall (AC Vol 60 No 12). detention trigger an outburst of anger and hunger for change Sonko continues to dispute the president’s legitimacy and maintains his demand for a promise there will be fter two weeks of protest and 3 March. As unrest surged, a panicky no attempt at a third term. the most violent clashes between National Audiovisual Regulatory Student campaigners are energised Ademonstrators and the security Council shut down several private by prominent rap performers whose forces seen in decades, leaving at radio and TV stations for covering lyrics play on resentment of French least 10 dead and 600 injured, the the protests too extensively. United influence, consciously using the English- government of President Macky Sall Kingdom-based internet observer language slogan ‘Free Senegal’. and supporters of his prime opponent NetBlocks – which tracks internet Ousmane Sonko have retreated into disruptions globally – reported that TABLES TURNED an uneasy calm. on 5 March, Facebook, YouTube, Today’s crisis is a turning of the Self-confidence in Senegal’sWhatsApp, and some Telegram servers tables for Macky Sall, who nine stability has been shaken to the core. were restricted on Orange/Sonatel, years ago was himself the popular Resentment has steadily accumulated restrictions that prompted outrage from opposition challenger, defeating after 12 months of Covid-19 lockdown Sonko supporters on social media, with President Abdoulaye Wade who had restrictions that curbed urban #FreeSenegal trending. super-promoted his son Karim and economic activity and left many young As Senegal reeled at the mounting then fudged the rules to run for a people jobless. casualties from repeated clashes third term. Now it is Sall’s rumoured But what finally triggered the between protesters and security third-term ambition that is fuelling explosion of anger on the streets was forces in Dakar and Sonko’s native Sonko’s campaign. an allegation of rape against Sonko that Casamance, Sall sought the advice of In a brutal reshuffle late last surfaced in February and within weeks religious leaders and respected civil year, the president pushed out his saw him deprived of parliamentary society figures. They pressed for a loyal presidency secretary-general immunity, arrested, charged and held conciliatory approach. Mahammed Boun Abdallah Dionne, for several days in custody. The president made a statesmanlike economic and social council chief Viewed by opposition supporters national address calling for calm. Aminata Touré and able ministers such as a politically motivated fabrication Sonko, quickly granted provisional as Mouhamadou Makhtar Cissé and designed to destroy Sonko’s expected release, did the same. The M2D Amadou Bâ who were seen as potential run for the presidency in 2024, this (Mouvement de défense de la démocratie) succession candidates for his Alliance hit a raw nerve with urban youths, – an alliance of his Pastef-Les Patriotes pour la république (APR) party. for whom this social media-savvy party and other opposition groups with Idrissa Seck, his closest challenger campaigner has emerged as the voice of civil society campaigns such as the Y’en in the 2019 election, was brought into challenge to the political establishment a Marre urban youth movement and Guy the government camp, rewarded with and Sall in particular. Marius Sagna’s Frapp-France Dégage – Touré’s post at the head of the CESE. The rape and threat allegations suspended its protests, at the request This sidelining or neutering of were made by Adji Sarr, a masseuse at of the influential Caliph-General of potential successors turbocharged a beauty parlour that Sonko attended the Mourides religious brotherhood, speculation about Sall’s third- for massages to ease back pain. He Serigne Mountakha Mbacké. term ambitions – and left the responded with a categoric denial, But the crisis has not gone away – charismatic Sonko, third-placed in insisting a third person was always even if the courts treat Sonko’s case 2019, as not just the tribune of angry present when he went for treatment. with scrupulous fairness and thus youth but also the repository for

For many Senegalese the claims were demonstrate greater independence much broader opposition support. Property of Asempa Limited reminiscent of the legal cases that had from political influence than they The impending municipal elections removed other prominent opponents, did when handing Khalifa Sall a and 2022 parliamentary polls offered Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall, from the five-year jail sentence for a secondary ample chance to build momentum. electoral scene (AC Vol 59 Nos 17 & 18). misdemeanour that shut him out of A technocratic liberal, Sall was The first protests broke out on the 2019 presidential race (AC Vol 58 never himself a radical, but he used to

8 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration have a real connection to the popular still enough rural votes to sustain his entering politics and wrote a book grassroots. In rural areas – 52% of political strategy in electoral terms, it accusing Aliou Sall of taking bribes for the population – his government’s may no longer be sustainable in terms energy concessions, is the natural voice highly effective programme of basic of Senegal’s stability. for these frustrations. development has sustained that Development progress for both Sonko may have been the target support, and this explains his thumping rural areas and urban technocrats of dirty tricks before. In 2019 a victories in the 2016 constitutional still cannot placate unemployed urban government communications team was referendum, 2017 parliamentary youth, alienated by corruption and the exposed as the probable source of a polls and 2019 presidential race (AC increasing power in the presidency – the fabricated claim that he had taken oil Vol 60 No 5). post of prime minister was abolished company bribes (AC Vol 60 No 4 & Vol But Sall has lost touch with the in 2019 – or Sall’s increasingly evident 61 No 13). popular mood in the sprawling Dakar plans to extend his time in office. And now the news website Dakar conurbation and other cities, where Matin has published an interview with impressive headline economic growth DIRTY TRICKS the aunt of masseuse Sarr claiming that has failed to translate into enough jobs Sonko, a former tax inspector who government representatives had tried to for young people. So even if there are campaigned against corruption before bribe her family. l

BURKINA FASO was prime minister under Compaoré and the MPP is made up of CDP Blaise plots comeback members who jumped ship when they saw the writing on the wall. ‘He’s getting old,’ is a frequently heard phrase, along with the rumours of The former dictator is testing the water for a possible return home, ill health that have circulated for several but there is a lot to forgive before that can happen years alongside pleas that he should be allowed to die in his homeland. Kaboré stands to catch some of that popularity laise Compaoré, ousted by mass 1987, and questions remain about the if the repatriation goes smoothly. There protests in 2014 after he sought a 10 people killed during attempts to is a widespread sentiment that the B fifth term as president, celebrated suppress the demonstrations that led jihadists would never have run riot his 70th birthday on 3 February in his to Compaoré’s ouster (AC Vol 46 No if Compaoré had still been around. In palatial villa in exile in Abidjan (AC Vol 24). Then there is his assumed role 2019 Compaoré offered himself as a 55 No 22). A short video on social media in the September 2015 attempted mediator between the government and showed his friends singing ‘joyeux coup by members of his presidential the jihadists (AC vol 60 No 11). anniversaire’ as he struggles to clap bodyguard, in which 14 were killed along, looking frail and spent, a pale (AC Vol 56 No 19). JIHADIST PACTS shadow of the energetic strongman who The ruling elite is certainly ready to The beginning of Kaboré’s presidency ruled Burkina Faso for 27 years. forgive, as they came of age within the marked the start of jihadist insurgency That, however, is what you CDP and owe their careers to Compaoré’s by groups affiliated to bothDa’ish are meant to think, say pundits in patronage. The prosecutorial dossiers (or Islamic State) and Al Qaida. Until Ouagadougou, who saw the video on the accusations against him have not then, they had focused their efforts as part of a campaign designed to progressed at all. Even so, it will be a on neighbouring Mali (AC Vol 59 No portray a spent force deserving more challenge for President Kaboré to keep 5). During his rule, Compaoré’s spy of sympathy than suspicion, a man his promise. chief, Moustapha Ould Limam Chafi, incapable of interfering in political life Kaboré said he wanted to focus is thought to have assisted him in who should be allowed home. Many on ‘national reconciliation’ at his maintaining a non-aggression pact with in Burkina’s elite believe Compaoré’s second term inauguration speech in the terrorist groups (AC Vol 60 No 21). return is imminent. November. One example of this was Last month, it was revealed that Eddie Komboïgo, Compaoré’s the appointment of Zéphirin Diabré, negotiations with the groups have political heir and leader of his ruling who came third in the November already taken place around the northern party, the Congrès pour la démocratie et election, as minister for national city of Djibo, according to an 11 March le progrès (CDP), has said that President reconciliation after he abandoned the report in The New Humanitarian Roch Marc Christian Kaboré made role of opposition leader. Compaoré’s (formerly IRIN News). Around 50 him a personal promise to facilitate the return would be another. fighters surrendered and locals say the former leader’s return from exile ‘within The MPP also claims that countryside surrounding the city has six months’, on the understanding that Compaoré’s return could heal the socio- become safer. Although Djibo is the only Compaoré stays out of politics. economic and ethnic divisions that place where negotiations have been Kaboré spoke publicly of arranging led to the jihadist insurgency that has made public, attacks have fallen off in Compaoré’s return as part of his overrun large parts of the country and recent months. It could look to some as November election campaign. Leading plagues neighbouring Mali and Niger. though Kaboré is buying them off, or members of the ruling Mouvement du Also, they claim that his return would paying them for ‘protection’. Whether peuple pour le progrès (MPP) have also somehow help heal the wounds of the this has involved reinstating elements said the move is all but certain. popular revolt he was forced to flee in a of Compaoré’s security state, who were Property of Asempa Limited Officially, however, Compaoré is a French military helicopter. also involved in the extensive human wanted man. He has an arrest warrant Although Kaboré and many others rights abuses, disappearances and the pending for alleged involvement in came to power on the coattails of the 2015 coup attempt, is unclear. the murder of his widely revered popular insurrection against Compaoré, Even if the government were to predecessor, Thomas Sankara, in they are creatures of his rule. Kaboré try to buy off the jihadists, the groups

Africa Confidential • 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 9 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration involved have changed from Compaoré’s sticking point. He is seen as a monster Blaise have been made, such as keeping day. Militants split from Iyad ag Ghali’s by many Burkinabès for his alleged him under house arrest to ensure he Al Qaida-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al involvement in the 1998 killing of does not try to re-enter the political Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) to form investigative journalist Norbert Zongo, arena. Islamic State in the Greater Sahara who was shot and burned to death by His presidential villa in his (ISGS). Chafi, who perhaps understands the presidential guard for probing into hometown of Ziniaré where he would the Sahel ‘better than anyone in the François’s business affairs. He is due to likely spend his time if he returned is world’ according to Rinaldo Depagne, be extradited from France to stand trial, ready to receive him. Many assumed an analyst with the International Crisis but has bought time through the appeal the estate had been abandoned, and the Group, is unlikely to return even if process (AC Vol 60 no 13). menagerie of lions, hyenas and ostriches Compaoré does. He has legal troubles of he left behind had to be rescued last year his own in his native Mauritania. HOMEWARD BOUND by an NGO after they began starving to Kaboré must calculate how much Blaise may be easier to forgive in the death. Today, however, the compound of his own political capital he would eyes of many Burkinabès, especially appears very much occupied. The have to expend to keep his old mentor among those who yearn for stability gardens are tended and the buildings out of court. The case of Compaoré’s at any price. Many proposals for are carefully maintained, almost as if brother François is also a major monitoring the behaviour of a returned awaiting their master. l

TANZANIA being sworn in, the new president name a new Vice-President, who has to be approved by half of all MPs. Ndugai has After Magafuli, a difficult already summoned the 393 assembly members to the capital, Dodoma. Suluhu Hassan has within her gift a transition number of parliamentary seats, which she could allocate to placate rival factions. She could also use these to The ruling party’s old guard is set to back Samia Suluhu Hassan make strategic cabinet appointments against a security cabal which was in charge for the last week and boost her standing. The dominant faction within the party is an old guard loyal to former fter announcing the death from A low-key figure with a narrow President Kikwete. Bolstered by the a ‘heart condition’ of President political base she may struggle return of once-key party financier, A John Magufuli on the evening of to consolidate power. Opposition Rostam Aziz, Kikwete’s influence is 17 March, Vice-President Samia Suluhu activists see her as more conciliatory set to increase (AC Vol 51 No 21). Also Hassan returns to the urgent matter of and collaborative than Magufuli and in this group is the former prime the succession. Substantive but discreet his allies. Leader of the opposition minister Edward Lowassa and talks have been in train for the past Alliance for Change and Transparency- former Secretary General of the week – even as Prime Minister Kassim Wazalendo, Zitto Kabwe, sent CCM, Abdulrahman Kinana. They Majaliwa was emphatically denying condolences to her shortly after she will push against some of the more reports of Magufuli’s illness. announced Magufuli’s death. unpopular Magufuli loyalists at the top Magufuli’s death, whether or not the After graduating from Mzumbe of the party such as CCM Secretary for government eventually attributes it to University in Tanzania, Suluhu Ideology Humphrey Polepole. Covid-19, along the loss of other senior Hassan worked for the UN’s World Along with CCM Vice-Chairmen state officials to the virus, is likely to Food Programme. She studied public Philip Mangura and Ally Mohammed speed a change in public health policy administration at postgraduate level at Shein, Polepole has announced there and attitudes to the pandemic. the University of Manchester, United will be a special meeting of the party’s Earlier this month, the government Kingdom, before returning to Tanzania central committee on 20 March in Dar- sent Covax, set up by Gavi, the Vaccine to take up a political career, first as a es-Salaam. Alliance and commercial backers, its member of the Zanzibar Assembly, Other factions centre on Prime first order for vaccines having earlier then as Minister of State in the Vice- Minister Majaliwa, Local Government declined to join the programme. It is President’s office for Union Affairs under Minister Selemani Jafo and the former also sending data on Covid-19 cases the presidency of Jakaya Kikwete, who Environment Minister and Minister in Tanzania to the World Health remains a close ally. of State for Union Affairs, January Organization in Brazzaville and Geneva The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi Makamba. Makamba knows Suluhu after at first refusing to do so. (CCM) party has long been Hassan well, calling her the ‘most Suluhu Hassan has announced factionalised, complicating agreement underrated politician in the country’. two weeks of official mourning for on the next moves. The main forces in Zanzibar president’s Hussein Ali Magufuli. Malawi’s President Lazarus contention are the old guard in CCM Mwinyi, who is the son of former Chakwera made a fulsome eulogy on and a group of securocrats composed of President Ali Hassan Mwinyi, is seen Magufuli’s regional role, as did Kenya’s Magufuli ultra-loyalists. Until now, she as a bridge between Magufuli loyalists President Uhuru Kenyatta. The most was viewed as outside the ruling party’s and the CCM old guard and could enthusiastic tribute outside the country simmering factional contests. play a key role in managing the so far has come from Kenya’s former Under the constitution, parliament transition. Mwinyi was to have Property of Asempa Limited Prime Minister Raila Odinga. speaker Job Ndugai is next in line for presided at an official function, with Under the constitution Suluhu Hassan the succession after Suluhu Hassan. He Suluhu Hassan as guest, at State House should complete Magufuli’s second and is said to have his own ambitions for the in Zanzibar’s Stone Town on 14 March. final term, which ends in 2025. No date presidency, at least in the longer term. The event was cancelled because of has been set for her inauguration. The constitution dictates that after Magufuli’s health.

10 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

The securocracy, dominated by include: Public Service head and Service (TISS), Diwani Athumani; Magufuli loyalists, has kept a tight Secretary General of the CCM, and Director of Operations at TISS, grip on the government in the past Bashiru Ally; former police chief Frederick Kibuta. So far, Ally and weeks and will try to protect their and new Director General of the Athumani have cooperated formally position in the new order. They Tanzania Intelligence and Security with Suluhu Hassan. l

CÔTE D’IVOIRE been replaced as interim Prime Minister by Secretary-General of the Presidency Many shoes to fill Patrick Achi, and as Defence Minister by Ouattara’s brother Tene Birahima Ouattara (known as photocopie for his astonishing likeness to the President). The death of the prime minister leaves the race to be Ouattara’s Alongside his prime ministerial political successor wide open role, Bakayoko was known as a media magnate who founded the fiercely pro-Ouattara Le Patriote newspaper in our prominent onlookers, dressed Bakayoko’s widow and daughter – was the early 1990s, and went on to head in black, oversaw the arrival on 14 visibly affected by his close ally’s death, the Ivorian branch of France’s Radio F March of the remains of Hamed which came less than a year after the Nostalgie. He was also MP for the Bakayoko, the former Ivorian Prime death of Bakayoko’s predecessor as strategic northwestern town of Séguéla Minister and Defence Minister seen Prime Minister, Amadou Gon Coulibaly (see box), mayor of the Abidjan suburb by many as a president-in-waiting and (AC Vol 61 No 15). of Abobo and Grand Master of the whose death from cancer has upended Bakayoko, who died from cancer, Masonic Lodge of Côte d’Ivoire. Ivorian politics. had been flown to France for treatment Famously, Bakayoko gatecrashed President Alassane Ouattara – in mid-February and then to Freiburg, the presidential couple’s marriage in there with his wife Dominique, and Germany. Days before his death, he had 1991 but instead of being thrown out

AN OLD NEW PARLIAMENT

For the first time in more than a decade all major political parties took part in Côte d’Ivoire’s parliamentary elections on 6 March. The results gave no rise for optimism that the ruling party’s stranglehold on power will be over any time soon. Out of the 255 seats up for grabs in the Assemblée nationale, the party of President Alassane Ouattara’s predecessor Laurent Gbagbo garnered just eight seats on its own and a further 50 in an uneasy electoral alliance with Henri Konan Bédié’s Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI, AC Vol 61 No 13). Loyalists to Gbagbo, whose presidency ended amid bloodshed in 2011 after a failed attempt to rig elections, stood under the banner of Ensemble pour la démocratie et la souveraineté. Gbagbo’s traditional political party, the Front Populaire Ivoirien, has been riven by factional rivalries, with Pascal Affi N’Guessanheading a government-recognised FPI that won only two seats (AC Vol 61 No 22). The Gbagbo-Bédié coalition is unlikely to last. While the PDCI represents the interests of the largely Baoulé class of wealthy planters, the EDS is left-leaning and populist. Gbagbo’s party has largely lost its grip in western Côte d’Ivoire, although the giant Abidjan suburb of Yopougon still remains very much its fief; it is here that the former president’s son Michel Gbagbo won a seat. Besides obvious ideological differences, Bédié and Gbagbo – whose return to the country is expected after an appeal verdict at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the end of this month – never got on well. In addition, the EDS does not have a programme beyond the return of its most prominent member. The PDCI is now in the political wilderness, after having broken with Ouattara and his Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP, AC Vol 61 No 24). It managed 23 seats on its own, including the fiery Yasmine Ouégnin, who retook her seat in the upmarket area of Cocody, Abidjan, not as an independent but for the party she abandoned five years ago. The main issue within the PDCI is the presence of Bédié. As long as he is at the helm there is no hope of renewal, which is why a host of younger politicians, including the losing presidential candidate Kouadio Konan Bertin (known as KKB), have left (AC Vol 61 No 20). Supporters of Charles Blé Goudé – a street politician-turned-minister who was tried and acquitted alongside Gbagbo in The Hague – stood for election as part of a loose coalition called Ensemble pour Bâtir that won eight seats in the Abidjan district of Yopougon. Blé Goudé, like Gbagbo, remains in The Hague for now, pending the ICC decision on his fate. The Union pour la démocratie et la paix en Côte d’Ivoire, an outgrowth of the late General Robert Gueï’s 1999-2000 military regime, lives on around the figure of Albert Mabri Toikeusse, with its support base in the north-western region of Man. Being the only party that could campaign on its achievements, the RHDP managed to keep its losses down to 30 seats, going from 167 to 137, a workable majority even though it is not an absolute one. The party is the best-oiled electoral machine, benefiting from state largesse for its campaigns. Most of its stalwarts kept or gained their seats. Notable losers in the elections included a key ally of former rebel leader Guillaume Soro, Alain Lobognon, who has been in jail since December 2020 for ‘plotting against state security’. Soro’s group Générations et Peuples Solidaires did not make any inroads, even in his fief of Ferkessédougou, where GPS candidates disguised as independents lost to the RHDP. Soro’s movement will have a lot of building up to do of it is ever going to be allowed a role in the country’s politics again.

The editor of government newspaper Fraternité Matin, Venance Konan, failed to win Bédié’s stronghold of Daoukro for the Property of Asempa Limited RHDP, and the campaign designer for Ouattara, Fabrice Sawegnon, also RHDP, made another unsuccessful attempt to take Abidjan Plateau, the country’s richest constituency, from the PDCI. Former Gbagbo right-hand-man Moïse Lida Kouassi of the EDS was publicly berated by the Commission électorale indépendante and pummelled by the electorate and after having denounced his RHDP opponent for being from the wrong ethnic group. l

Africa Confidential • 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 11 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration he managed to earn their love and Alassane Ouattara’s last term, after are others (AC Vol 61 No 24). One is trust. Despite the affinity between his controversial third election victory Adama Bictogo, 59, the RHDP Executive Ouattara, 79, and Bakayoko, 23 years last year, considered by many to be in Director, whose career took him from his junior, the conspiracy mill has been breach of a constitutional two-term rebel circles to business and politics. turning, with accusations flying that limit (AC Vol 62 No 1). Another upcoming star is Souleymane the President had poisoned his two It does not need to be this way. Diarassouba, 49, who made an impact designated successors. It is hard to see Astute political observers say that unlike as a manager in the regional banking how this could have benefited Ouattara, former president Henri Konan Bédié’s sector, before being becoming minister but the existence of these malignant Parti démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire for trade and small enterprises in 2017. theories shows just how toxic Côte (PDCI) and former president Laurent He holds a parliamentary seat for his d’Ivoire’s political discourse is. Gbagbo’s Front Populaire Ivoirien, it native Yamoussoukro. is in fact only Ouattara’s party – the The question now is whether FAITHFUL Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour Ouattara will be able to convince his While the choice of his faithful aide la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP) – that notoriously divided party that any of Achi as prime minister looks logical, the has sought to look beyond the figure these (or a surprise candidate) is a naming of Ouattara’s younger brother of the founder-president and make worthy successor. Should he go without as defence minister has fuelled rumours attempts at rejuvenation. resolving this thorny issue then the that this is a prequel to keeping the Achi may be only 13 years the head RHDP can look forward to the same presidency in the family. There is of state’s junior and he is not being sharp reduction in political relevance a broad consensus that this will be considered for the presidency but there seen by the PDCI and the FPI. l

UGANDA of the vote. These scores were heavily outbalanced by Museveni officially Opposition plans its pushback polling up to 99% in other districts. President Museveni did especially badly in Buganda in the parliamentary and presidential polls, for which President Museveni is maintaining heavy security on the street as he blamed ‘sectarianism’. Several concern mounts over treatment of detainees ministers were among those who lost their seats. Up to now, Museveni has carried the vote there consistently, ension is running high in Kampala grounds that the court would be biased. even when Baganda politicians and Jinja over a month after He said he would take his grievances to challenged him for the presidency, as T President Yoweri Museveni the ‘court of public opinion’. in 1996 when he faced the Democratic lifted restrictions on social media and There had been a lull in the security Party’s Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere the internet imposed ahead of the 14 force presence in Kampala at the end (AC Vol 37 No 17). January election. Museveni and his of February but their presence is being Museveni seems to have lost his advisors are trying to find a way to felt again. Security agencies led by the customary ability to appease Buganda restore the government’s authority in Special Forces Command (SFC), headed and the Catholic Church, which are the wake of the disputed elections, by the president’s son, Lt Gen Muhoozi respectively the biggest ethnic and particularly its falling popularity in the Kainerugaba, mobilised heavily and religious groupings, by appointing key capital and among the Baganda, and carried out a wave of detentions in members from these communities. sharper criticism of its rights abuses Kampala and its suburbs of ‘ringleaders’ Since 1994, for example, the post of by the United States and the European of the planned demonstrations. Vice-President has been reserved for Union (AC Vol 62 No 2). The reason initially cited by the a Muganda Catholic, which is one Police and soldiers are again cracking government for keeping the security element of Museveni’s delicate regional down on any signs of dissent as the forces on the streets was the threat and religious power-balancing. Edward National Unity Platform (NUP), led by of riots. The Minister of Information, Kiwanuka Ssekandi, a Catholic Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Judith Nabakooba, claimed two weeks Muganda, who holds the post, was one Wine, plans a second wave of protests after polling day that plotters were of about a dozen cabinet ministers from against the Museveni government. conspiring to ‘shut down’ Uganda. Buganda that lost their parliamentary A key focus for the protests will be the seats to NUP candidates. Nabakooba fate of hundreds of activists detained by ‘TREASON’ was another. the security forces whose whereabouts The rhetoric is matched by blood- As a result, Museveni now has a far are unknown. The government curdling threats from the military. smaller pool of experienced Baganda eventually released a list of 177 suspects The newly appointed Resident City MPs in the ruling party from which to in detention but the NUP has claimed Commissioner in Jinja, Major David appoint cabinet ministers. Normally, that over 600 of their supporters remain Matovu, said rioting would be Museveni would attempt to match unaccounted for. There are grisly reports ‘treason’, and that ‘whoever will be the ethnic balance of the country in of relatives being summoned to police involved should carry a coffin on their the cabinet. He has so few prominent stations to pick up corpses. head, rest it by the roadside then go Baganda MPs now that he cannot fill ‘I call upon you to rise up peacefully, and protest on the highway.’ Jinja was what would normally be a quota of unarmed and demonstrate against a a particularly strong source of support about 25% Baganda of the 100 or Property of Asempa Limited regime that has oppressed us,’ Wine for Bobi Wine, even by the official so ministers and deputy ministers. said on 9 March at NUP headquarters. polling figures, which gave him 60% Historically, ministers have always On 22 February he withdrew a petition of the vote there compared with 36% been MPs. Museveni may decide to co- to the Supreme Court asking for the for the president. In Kampala, the opt members of the Buganda elite, as election results to be overturned on the electoral commission gave Wine 72% he has often before.

12 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

The President is not thought likely believing the President had reneged on opposition leaders including the to announce a new cabinet until his last an agreement that he would succeed Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) term officially expires in May. him (AC Vol 57 No 3). oppositionist Kizza Besigye before Museveni is not known for holding Mbabazi was present on the NRM both men decided to go it alone against grudges and has readmitted to his inner campaign trail before the election. ‘I Museveni in 2016. His contacts in the circle politicians with whom he had was among those who started NRM so opposition are good, and some key fallen out disastrously, as well as co- why should I leave it, I cannot,’ Mbabazi members of the NUP were in his 2016 opting oppositionists. Insiders say the told a group of ruling party leaders in campaign team. However, insiders President has been in talks with former Kampala shortly before polling day. He say that as a condition for returning Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi to had already met Museveni and other to government, Mbabazi would bring him back into the fold and help senior government officials. require the power to hire and fire run the government. government officials, which President Mbabazi ran against Museveni in HIRE AND FIRE POWER Museveni has never shared with any of the presidential elections in 2016 after Mbabazi could be an astute choice. his colleagues for the 35 years he has they fell out, the former prime minister He held extensive talks with been in power. l

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Africa Confidential • 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 13 Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S1947/456119 Administration

perform the audit. all the money was transferred to bank POINTERS The audit, which includes an accounts controlled by convicted environmental component, follows money-launderer and former oil reports of serious pollution in oil- minister Dan Etete. producing areas, prompting the East Etete had awarded OPL 245 to a Mozambique African Court of Justice to order a halt company he secretly owned, Malabu HIGH COURTS AND HIDDEN LOANS to production, though both production Oil and Gas, in 1998, when he was oil n Mozambique’s prospects for victory and exports have continued. An minister under dictator General Sani in its law suits over US$2 billion in environmental audit could also aid Abacha (AC Vol 55 No 13). Pasquale hidden loans are dimming, according to the government’s efforts to attract - who cut his teeth taking on Eni for legal sources. Maputo has been suing investors to its planned tender of up to political bribery in Italy’s landmark Lebanese businessman Iskandar 14 new oil exploration blocks. Tangentopoli (‘Bribesville’) of the Safa’s Privinvest, Credit Suisse bank, Pressure has also been growing 1990s – said the cash was to be paid and the three CS bankers who admitted domestically, as leaders feel the pinch to President Goodluck Jonathan and fraud and money-laundering in a US of dwindling resources. Last month, other officials in Abuja. Etete was also court last year. Maputo wants the loans the influential Jieng Council of Elders, acquitted by judge Tremolada. to be declared illegal and the state historically a bulwark of Presidential The Milan ruling, if it stands, could guarantee backing them voided. On support, cited corruption as the ‘driver influence several cases linked to the 11 March the Court of Appeal in London of political competition and hence the OPL 245 saga. Shell Chief Executive allowed Privinvest’s appeal, ruling that war’ (AC Vol 61 No 9). Ben van Beurden said: ‘We have the issue of the state guarantee falls The seven-man Committee always maintained that the 2011 within the realm of arbitration. This established to oversee the audit, settlement was legal.’ The lawyer for means that parts of the dispute will however, will ensure that Salva’s ENI’s CEO, Claudio Descalzi, one have to be decided in arbitration in interests are well protected. The of the accused, said his client has Switzerland. Maputo’s lawyers want to Committee is Chaired by the Office of ‘finally had his professional reputation appeal but permission is unlikely to be the President; and also includes the restored’. Campaign groups see the granted, the sources said. directors general of the Ministry of verdict as a ‘stain on Italy’. ‘If allowed In January, Safa issued details of Petroleum; the feared National Security to stand, it creates a terrible precedent payments made to President Filipe Services (NSS); and the state-owned oil for the global fight against corruption,’ Nyusi when he was Minister of company, NilePet, which owns a share said Antonio Tricarico of Italy’s Defence in 2013 (AC Dispatches 2-2- in the oil companies to be audited. Re:Common lobbying group. 21). Privinvest is also counter-suing for The likely end result, say analysts, is Although the Milan case could breach of contract and adding Nyusi an audit to help the presidency squeeze influence the outcome of the cases in as a defendant to its claim against every drop from the companies charged other jurisdictions, it is unlikely to stop high-ranking Mozambican government with production rather than on opening them. Nor will it end the constraints on officials. Last year it added ex-President the books to scrutiny. Shell and Eni’s operation of OPL 245. Armando Guebuza to the suit. The licence is due to expire in three This is seen as a pressure tactic by Nigeria months. At that point they will have to Safa on Maputo to settle or end the suit, SHELL AND ENI WIN IN MILAN negotiate a renewal of their rights on assuming that Maputo wants to keep n Royal Dutch Shell and Italy’s Eni the block with the state oil company, the President out of the case. and 13 individuals were acquitted by a the Nigerian National Petroleum Mozambique’s official position is Milan court in one of the world’s biggest Corporation (NNPC). After this latest that former Finance Minister Manuel corruption cases on 17 March. After legal battle in Milan, neither side looks Chang, Guebuza’s son Ndambi, and a three years and 74 hearings over the ready to give much ground. group of other officials were the only US$1.1 billion Nigerian OPL 245 case, Nigeria’s government, which Mozambicans implicated (AC Vol 60 presiding judge Marco Tremolada was a party to the Milan case, was No 4). Safa claims the Nyusi payments said in a 45-second statement that ‘a disappointed in the ruling but a were legitimate political contributions. crime was not committed’. It will be representative thanked the Italian According to a leak in Maputo, three months before the court provides authorities for bringing the case. Nyusi made a statement in the criminal a written judgment but we hear that Lawyers representing Abuja are suing case against Chang saying that he Milan’s deputy public prosecutor, Fabio Shell and ENI for over $1bn in the had not authorised Chang to go ahead de Pasquale, is planning to appeal Nigerian courts for their alleged role in with the loans, but there is believed to against the ruling. OPL 245 deal. be documentary evidence from 2013 Legal actions over Shell and Eni’s Nigeria is also suing JPMorgan showing that he was in the know and purchase of OPL 245, one of Africa’s Chase in a civil case in London for gave Chang the go-ahead. richest oil blocks, have been running allegedly facilitating the OPL 245 in parallel in Italy, the Netherlands, bribery, a case due to come to trial on South Sudan United Kingdom and Nigeria. Locked 1 November. OIL ON AUDIT in controversy and legal dispute since n South Sudan’s oil sector, which 1998, OPL 245 is yet to produce any accounts for 85% of government commercial quantities of oil. revenue, has resisted an audit amid Shell and Eni, their former and a litany of scandals and repeated current executives and middlemen, promises of opening the books (AC Vol were accused of corruption after they Property of Asempa Limited 61 No 24). But international pressure paid $1.1bn for OPL 245, thought to and the threat of financial support be a fraction of the commercial value being cut appears to have forced of the block at the time, into a special President Salva Kiir Mayardit to finally account opened by Nigerian officials in relent. Alex Stewart International will 2011 (AC Vol 59 No 25). Within months,

14 18 March 2021 • Vol 62 - N° 6 • Africa Confidential Prepared for Beate Adolf on 20/03/2021 at 11:35. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected].