Early Warning Issues for March Livingstone Formula Peace And

CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE

Early Warning Issues for 2010 AU Post-Summit Analysis 7 March 1 Country Analysis: Nigeria’s Pending PSC Issues 2 Niger Delta 10 Country Analysis: Niger 2 Peace, Security and AFRICOM 13 Election of PSC Members 4 Important Forthcoming Dates 15 Country Analysis: Comoros 6 No. 8, March 2010

This report is available on the ISS website and can be viewed together with Thematic Reports on the work of the PSC at www.issafrica.org. All documents referred to in this Report can also be found on the ISS website. Peace and Security Council Protocol ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the PSC of the African Union

Early Warning Issues that the Supreme Council for the convened. However, tensions have Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), resurfaced linked to the outcome for March the military junta which usurped of the poll which could escalate the power, had suspended the country’s crisis situation in the country. The scheduled Rotating Chair of new constitution and dissolved all the African Union (AU) Peace state institutions. The restoration Nigeria’s Niger Delta and Security Council (PSC) for of constitutional order has to be the month of March is Zambia. closely scrutinised to ensure that In the absence of a country’s the military leadership does not On 10 February 2010, the representation at ambassadorial entrench itself in power. Chairperson of the AU Commission, level, an alternate member will chair Jean Ping, commended the initiative the Council for the month. to install Goodluck Jonathan as Comoros Nigeria’s Acting Head of State in the absence of the Country’s President, Niger On 9 May 2007, the PSC issued a Umaru Yar’Adua, due to ill health. communiqué, PSC/MIN/Comm.1 The Chairperson commended the On 29 October 2009, the PSC (LXXVII), authorising the deployment authorities and people of Nigeria issued a communiqué, PSC/AHG/ of the African Union Electoral for demonstrating a ‘respect for COMM.3(CCVII), endorsing the and Security Assistance Mission the constitution, good governance, decision on Niger adopted by the (MAES) to the Comoros. On 30 democracy and the rule of law’. At a Extraordinary Summit of Economic April 2008, the PSC communiqué, regional level, on 23 June 2008 the Community of West African States PSC/PR/COMM(CXXIV), extended ECOWAS issued communiqué ECW/ (ECOWAS) Heads of State and the mandate of the MAES to assist A/OJUN34 applauding the Nigerian Government, held on 17 October the central government undertake Government’s Amnesty Programme 2009, in Abuja, Nigeria. Niger’s post-conflict reconstruction and which it extended to armed militia in political landscape was drastically oversee the forthcoming legislative the Niger Delta. The lengthy absence altered when on 18 February 2010 elections. The Council also urged of the country’s President Yar’Adua, a group of soldiers staged a military the island State authorities to create since 23 Novermber 2009, prompted coup and detained President an environment conducive to free, concerns about a political vacuum to Mamadou Tandja as well as several fair and democratic elections. In address insecurity in the Niger Delta. cabinet ministers. The leader of December 2009, after a series of the group, Salou Djibo, declared postponements, these polls were >>page 2 Livingstone Formula ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/ PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs. This Report is an independent publication of the Institute for Security Studies.

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Pending PSC Issues February 2010, issued its Decision engage with regional, continental Document on the Report of the and international actors. Issues pending for the Council Peace and Security Council on its Furthermore, the promise of a include: Activities and the Situation of Peace speedy return to constitutional and Security in Africa in which order has, at least for now, resulted it noted the ongoing mediation in an optimistic atmosphere among Panel of the Wise: process being facilitated by former key stakeholders in Niger as well Nigerian President Abdulsalami as in the international community. In January 2007, the AU Abubacar and urged the inter- However, the process that will Assembly of Heads of State Nigerien parties to fully cooperate indeed lead the country to reverse and Government endorsed the with the mediator. its previous trajectory will have Chairperson of the Commission’s to be closely monitored by both recommendation for the Crisis Escalation Potential: national and international actors. appointment of five esteemed The situation will need to be African personalities to serve transformed quickly in order to Niger’s political landscape was as members of the Panel of avoid the potential frustration and drastically altered when on 18 the Wise. At its 100th meeting factionalisation in the country’s February 2010 a group of soldiers on 12 November 2007, the relatively united opposition, staged a military coup and detained PSC adopted a set of detailed especially now that the ‘common President Mamadou Tandja as Modalities for the Functioning enemy’ has been removed from well as several cabinet ministers. of the Panel of the Wise. These the scene. The crisis escalation The leader of the group, Salou Modalities state that ‘members potential in Niger remains high Djibo, declared that the Supreme of the Panel serve for a period and the current transitional period Council for the Restoration of of three years. They shall be will have to deliver tangible results Democracy (CSRD) had suspended eligible for reappointment for relatively soon to assuage fears that the country’s new constitution only one more term’. The three this might be another military take- and dissolved all state institutions. year period for the first term of over which transforms itself into the Following the coup d’état, which the Panel concluded in January entrenchment of power. 2010. The PSC and the AU reportedly unfolded without major Commission have not issued a interruptions to the country’s communiqué indicating whether daily life, several towns witnessed Key Issues and Internal the terms of the Panel members thousands of people taking to Dynamics: have been renewed, or whether the streets to demonstrate what new Panel members have been was widely regarded as support The coup came after a series of appointed. for the coup. It was reported that meetings facilitated by the ECOWAS the CSRD committed itself to the appointed mediator in the Niger involvement of political parties as Crisis, former Nigerian President well as civil society organisations in Abubakar. The meetings achieved COUNTRY ANALYSIS the drafting of a new constitution little progress reportedly due to the and in the design of a transitional intransigence of President Tandja, process after the situation had been who rejected proposals which Niger stabilised. It also stated Tandja and would compel him to hand over other senior government officials power in less than a year and who were being kept in comfortable Previous PSC Communiqués insisted on maintaining the country’s conditions in the service quarters new controversial constitution. This and Recommendations: of the Presidency where the Red constitution was adopted following a Cross was provided with access to referendum that was declared illegal On 29 October 2009, the PSC them. Several days after the putsch, by both the country’s judiciary issued a communiqué, PSC/AHG/ the CSRD appointed Mahamadou (which was subsequently dissolved COMM.3(CCVII), endorsing the Danda as Prime Minister in a by Tandja) as well as a spectrum decision on Niger adopted by the transitional government. Danda was of international partners and Extraordinary Summit of ECOWAS previously Minister for Information organisations. The new constitution Heads of State and Government, in the transitional government that would have enabled President held on 17 October 2009, in Abuja, was set up after Niger’s previous Tandja to extend his reign for a Nigeria. It also requested the coup in 1999. further three years without elections Chairperson of the AU Commission after having governed for two five- to intensify his efforts towards The situation, although it involved year terms, which officially came resolving the ongoing crisis and the illegitimate capture of power, to an end on 22 December 2009. to continue working closely with appears to be relatively calm. The The new constitution also rescinded ECOWAS. The Fourteenth AU country’s new military regime has the two-term limits enshrined in Summit, held from 25 January to 2 demonstrated its willingness to the preceding 1999 constitution.

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President Tandja’s actions sparked example by suspending Niger’s Scenario Two: protest both nationally and membership of the continental internationally. The military, which body, demonstrating its zero- The military leadership could delay had thus far appeared united and tolerance policy for unconstitutional any transition out of the current relatively neutral, appears to have changes of government, PSC/ crisis so as to extend the duration of finally decided that Tandja’s plan for PR/COMM.2(CCXVI). Both its rule. This could lead to frustration extending his rule would adversely organisations called for a swift among the country’s political affect the country, notably given restoration of constitutional actors and its armed forces could the prevalence of sanctions and the order. On 21 February 2010, experience serious internal rifts. The withholding of development aid. Ambassador Ramtane Lamamra, resulting tension could precipitate the AU Commissioner for Peace violent confrontation. and Security, and Mohammed Ibn In July 2009 the first volume of this Chambas, the President of the Report suggested that one of the ECOWAS Commission, travelled to Early Response Options: scenarios that could evolve in Niger Niger to meet the new junta leaders would include: ‘A section of the and also reiterated the call for a The CSRD has demonstrated security forces disloyal to Tandja timely restoration of constitutional an initial willingness to sides with his opponents, and the order. engage with the regional and crisis situation degenerates’. To an international community. The extent this is what is now unravelling recent developments are situated in Niger. UN Dynamics: within the AU’s principles on the unconstitutional change Geo-Political Dynamics: In a statement issued on 18 of government enshrined in its February 2010, the UN Secretary- Constitutive Act and in the Lomé Pan-African and RECs Dynamics: General repeated his appeal to Declaration on Unconstitutional stakeholders in the country to Changes of Government, of July ‘swiftly revert to constitutional Niger’s coup occurred only two 2000. Given the above scenarios order in the settlement of the days after West African leaders the following options could be political crisis that developed in expressed their concern over considered: that country last year’. A follow- the ‘region’s slide into chaos’ at up statement on 19 February 2010 the ECOWAS Summit which was reiterated the Secretary-General’s Option 1: convened on 16 February 2010 in disapproval of unconstitutional Abuja, Nigeria. The organisation changes of government as well The PSC in tandem with ECOWAS specifically expressed its regret over as attempts to remain in power could continue to monitor the the ‘little progress’ achieved in the through unconstitutional means. situation and maintain pressure inter-party dialogue in Niger. In the Said Djinnit, the Secretary-General’s on the CSRD, but also continue statement that was subsequently Special Representative for West to engage with it to ensure and released, ECOWAS requested the Africa, joined the AU Commissioner to facilitate a timely return to AU to complement the work of for Peace and Security and Head constitutional order. In this regard, General Abdulsalami in the spirit of of ECOWAS during their mission to the PSC could recommend the close cooperation existing between Niger on 21 February 2010. appointment of a Special Envoy the two institutions by designating of the Chairperson of the AU a Special Envoy for Niger. It also Commission, as requested by noted that Senegalese President Scenario Planning: ECOWAS, to closely monitor the Abdoulaye Wade would avail situation and work with regional himself to the mediation team for Scenario One: and international partners. consultation on the situation in the country. The military leadership could Option 2: continue to be open to engagement ECOWAS has played a prominent with and assistance from, the In the absence of cooperation role in monitoring the situation international community and from the CSRD, the PSC could in Niger, since Tandja decided, succeeds in putting a process in recommend the application of the in mid-2009, to adopt a new place that would lead towards the measures articulated in the Lomé constitution against the advice of restoration of constitutional order Declaration on Unconstitutional Parliament as well as the country’s in the country. Despite the inherent Changes of Government and re- Constitutional Court. ECOWAS’ frustrations and delays in such a emphasised at the recent 2010 AU suspended Niger’s membership process, key actors could manage Summit, until constitutional order is when Tandja’s constitutional term to peacefully negotiate a way out restored in Niger. came to an end in late December of the crisis of leadership and set a 2009. The AU followed ECOWAS’ clear timetable for progress.

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Documentation: • EX.CL/566 (XVI) (2 • Assembly/AU/Dec.220(XII) February 2010) Report (2 February 2010) Decision Relevant AU Documents: of the Chairperson on the Resurgence of the of the Commission Scourge of Coups d’État in • PSC/PR/COMM.2(CCXVI) (19 on the Prevention of Africa February 2010) Communiqué Unconstitutional Changes on Niger of Government and RECs Documents: Strengthening the Capacities of the African Union to • AU Communiqué (19 February Manage Such Situations • ECOWAS Statement N° 2010) The Chairperson of the 020/2010 (16 February Commission Condemns the 2010) ECOWAS Leaders Seizure of Power by Force in • Assembly/AU/Draft/ Exhort Nigerien Parties to Niger Dec.2(XIV)Rev.2 (2 Demonstrate Flexibility in February 2010) Decision Resolving Political Crisis on the Prevention of • Assembly/AU/Draft/ Unconstitutional Changes Dec.1(XIV)Rev.2 (2 February of Government and 2010) Decision on the Report Strengthening the Capacities of the Peace and Security of the African Union to Council on its Activities and Manage Such Situations the Situation of Peace and Security in Africa

PSC RETROSPECTIVE: Election of the PSC Members

On 1 February 2010, fifteen Council, the Assembly applies the The other ten members of the countries of the African Union principle of equitable regional PSC elected for a term of two were elected to the Peace and representation and national years are: Security Council, during the rotation. Article 5(2) stipulates that Sixteenth Ordinary Session of the the criteria of the selection of each Central Africa Executive Council of Ministers, prospective member state including in Addis Ababa. The election among others: the country’s was subsequently endorsed at contribution to the promotion and 1. Republic of Burundi; the Fourteenth Ordinary Session maintenance of peace and security 2. Republic of Chad; of the Assembly of Heads of in Africa; its willingness and ability State and Government. Earlier to take up responsibility for regional Eastern Africa towards the end of 2009, the and continental conflict resolution AU Commission had issued initiatives; as well as respect 3. Republic of Djibouti; an announcement regarding for constitutional governance, 4. Republic of Rwanda; the fifteen PSC vacancies that in accordance with the Lomé arose as a result of the expiry of Declaration. three-year terms of office of five Northern Africa members of the PSC elected Accordingly, the five countries that in January 2007 as well as the 5. Republic of Mauritania; were elected to serve for a period of conclusion of the two-year terms three years as from March 2010 are: of ten members of the PSC who Southern Africa were elected in January 2008. 1. Republic of Equatorial Guinea This meant that all the fifteen 6. Republic of Namibia; – Central Africa; positions on the PSC were vacant 7. Republic of South Africa; prior to the 2010 election. 2. Republic of Kenya – Eastern Africa; 3. Great Socialist People’s Libyan Western Africa The elections were in accordance Arab Jamahiriya – Northern with Article 5 (1) of the Protocol Africa; 8. Republic of Benin; Relating to the Establishment of 4. Republic of Zimbabwe – 9. Republic of Cote d’Ivoire; the PSC that governs the polls for Southern Africa; 10. Republic of Mali. Council membership. Procedurally, 5. Federal Republic of Nigeria – in electing the members of the Western Africa. >>page 5

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PSC RETROSPECTIVE: Election of the PSC Members (continued)

Among these countries Benin, during his or her chairmanship. increasing the extent and degree Burundi, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, and He or she also has the mandate to of its intervention to promote Rwanda were re-elected. Most request briefings from the different peace on the African continent. regions had determined who committees of the PSC and other Within the framework of the Year the members from each region organs and institutions of the AU. of Peace and Security, the AU would be prior to the Summit, so In addition, through the Livingstone Summit has already requested the the elections were essentially a Formula, the Chair of the PSC Council to undertake proactive formality. Most regions rotated can engage directly with civil initiatives to continue preventing new members into the Council, society organisations on a range conflict as well as promoting however, with the re-election of of early warning, peacemaking, post-conflict reconstruction. A previous members the institutional peacekeeping and peacebuilding cursory assessment of its five-year memory of the PSC would be issues. existence reveals that the PSC has preserved which should enable to convened almost 220 meetings continue its functions without any and issued as many communiqués The election of Nigeria, South undue disruption. and statements relating to Africa and Kenya, among others, crisis and conflict situations in means that key pivotal states in Burundi, CAR, Chad, Comoros, Article 8(6) of the PSC Protocol Africa’s various regions will now Côte d’Ivoire, DRC, Guinea, states that new members of the be able to bring their extensive Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Council take up office on the first experience and resources in Madagascar, Mauritania, Niger, day of April after their election peacemaking and peacekeeping to Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, by the AU Summit. The new list the activities of the PSC. Nigeria is and Zimbabwe, among others. of Council members and the already a non-permanent member The Council has also authorised inaugural Chairperson for the of the UN Security Council. South sanctions against several member month of April has to be formally Africa has secured the prospective states, most notably against the communicated to PSC members support of the AU as the candidate military junta in Guinea following and other AU Member States from the Southern Africa region the September 2009 massacre before the end of February 2010. for the 2011-2012 term as a non- of innocent civilians, and against permanent member of the UNSC. Mauritania prior to the July The potential election of other new At the Retreat of the PSC 2009. elections The Council has members of the AU PSC to the convened from 5 to 6 July 2007 authorised the deployment of UN Security Council may bridge in Dakar, Senegal, the Council four peace operations namely in the communication gap that exists resolved to adopt the practice of Burundi (2003 to 2004), Sudan between the two institutions. a monthly Rotating Chairmanship, (2004 to present, now being However, the extent to which PSC/PR/2(LXXXIII). According to jointly undertaken with the UN), African countries that are elected Article 8(6) of the PSC Protocol, the Comoros (2006 to present) to the UN Security Council will be the Chair of the Council shall be and Somalia (2007 to present). able to forge a common voice and held in turn by the members of Undoubtedly, the Council has articulate the perspective of the the Council in the alphabetical demonstrated its ability engage PSC remains to be seen. order of the names of individual with crisis situations in Africa and countries for a period of one will continue to function as one of calendar month. In other words, The AU has declared 2010 as the the most important and powerful following each election PSC Year of Peace and Security, but there organs of Africa’s evolving peace members will assume the Rotating are a number of violent conflicts on and security architecture. Chairmanship according to the the continent, amongst others in the alphabetical order of the names Darfur region of Sudan and Somalia of their countries. The Chair of the which will continue to occupy the PSC is occupied by the Permanent attention of the PSC. In addition, Representative of the country there are countries that have a high that is designated to chair the crisis escalation potential including Council for a particular month. South Sudan, Guinea, Madagascar The Permanent Representative and Niger which will also require has to be duly accredited to the the Council’s attention. The PSC AU Commission and he or she will therefore be confronted by is therefore expected to remain significant challenges, but based in Addis Ababa, where the on its prior initiatives the Council AU headquarters are located, has established a precedent for

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Some of the teachers alleged that Comore, Mohéli and Anjouan. The COUNTRY ANALYSIS Sambi’s ruling coalition which won a Assembly of each island selects parliamentary election in December 3 members. On 6 December has not delivered on its commitment 2009, the first round of elections Comoros to manage the economy effectively. took place without any significant incidents. However, only two Previous PSC Communiqués constituencies achieved results in On 7 February 2010, Comorian and Recommendations: which there was an outright majority security forces arrested and in the first round. In both instances briefly detained the leader of the President Sambi’s party won the On 9 May 2007, the PSC issued opposition movement Said Larifou. poll. Therefore a second round a communiqué, PSC/MIN/ Earlier in 2009, Larifou had been became a necessity and was duly Comm.1 (LXXVII), authorising the designated as the National Secretary deployment of the African Union convened on 20 December 2009. of a coalition of parties opposed to Electoral and Security Assistance The official results subsequently President Sambi. Though no official Mission (MAES) to the Comoros. announced that President Sambi’s reason was given, observers note Subsequently, on 10 October Baobab (named after the tree) that he was accused of allegedly 2007, it issued communiqué Coalition won a majority of seats in initiating and politicising the student PSC/PR/COMM(XCV), which the Assembly. The opposition won riot as he had vocally supported the imposed targeted sanctions five constituencies and three of protests that were held in January on the authorities of Anjouan these were on the island of Mohéli. 2010. Larifou, who heads the Ridja which had unilaterally declared Party, was arraigned in court and independence from Comoros. On subsequently released the following The Presidential term of office 30 April 2008, PSC communiqué day with a summons to reappear in the Comoros is four years and PSC/PR/COMM(CXXIV) extended at the prosecutor’s office. On 9 an office holder is entitled to just the mandate of the MAES to assist February 2010, Larifou announced one mandate. This system was the central government undertake effectively devised after Anjouan, post-conflict reconstruction and that he would go on hunger strike. He stated that his cyclical arrests are one of the three islands that make oversee the forthcoming legislative up the Union of Comoros, decided elections. The Council also urged undermining his freedom to function as a citizen and politician. The in 1997 to pursue independence the island State authorities to create from the Union. In essence, an environment conducive to free, tensions relating to the referendum and the rotating presidency of the Anjouan wanted to revert to French fair and democratic elections. In rule citing economic and political December 2009, after a series of island state could escalate the crisis situation in the country. marginalisation by the other islands. postponements, these polls were France rejected the request and this convened. precipitated bloody confrontations Key Issues and Internal between the federal troops and Crisis Escalation Potential: Dynamics: rebels. The AU deployed a special mission to depose the irridentionist At the end of January 2010, At the heart of the Comorian crisis leader Mohammed Bacar, who had students in Comoros staged is a quest to control the country’s declared himself as the de facto protests against the extended limited resources in conditions of president of Anjouan. Ultimately, school closures following a strike pronounced poverty, which has through negotiations brokered in by teachers demanding payment of generated a highly competitive part by the AU an agreement was their salaries. Public sector teachers and often violent political reached to ensure that a framework have been on strike for almost a environment. Comoros has had a of a rotating presidency among month in response to payment troubled political history and has the three islands was established. arrears of up to six months. In experienced more than 20 coups A union government of the three effect, schools have been closed since its independence from France islands was also established with a since the beginning of this year. in 1975. The recent legislative new system of political autonomy. Hundreds of school students and elections which were originally In keeping with the principle of a university undergraduates marched due to take place in July 2009 rotating presidency, Mwali island, with their teachers through the were subsequently held between with a population of 38,000 people, capital Moroni protesting against 6 and 20 December 2009. These is due to provide a President in 2011. the government. Tensions escalated polls were designed to stabilise after a section of the protesters the country. The Comoros has begun to throw projectiles at 24 parliamentary constituencies. On 17 May 2009, a referendum business installations. In response, Nine of the seats in the legislature was convened in Comoros, which the security forces blocked access are filled by appointees from the effectively amended the 2001 to an avenue leading to President assemblies of the autonomous Ahmed Abdallah Sambi’s palace. islands of the Comoros: Grande >>page 8

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AU Post-Summit Analysis

From 25 January to 2 February government. This AU commitment change negotiations which 2010, the African Union convened was immediately tested when a were convened in Copenhagen its Fourteenth Assembly of Heads coup d’état took place in Niger on in December 2009. Analysis of State and Government, in 18 February 2010, overthrowing already pointed to the impact of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Even former President Tandja. The AU global climate change on armed though the official theme of the duly issued sanctions on the coup conflict in Africa, particularly with summit was ‘Information and leaders and suspended Niger’s regards to increasing drought and Communication Technologies membership of the continental body competition over land. In this (ICTs) in Africa: Challenges and and urged a precipitous return to regard, the Summit encouraged Prospects for Development’, constitutional order in the country. member states to endorse the there were a number of peace provisions of the Copenhagen and security-related issues that Justice and Accountability: Accords by submitting their featured in the deliberations and individual positions on this matter final decisions of the Assembly. to the Secretariat of United The AU Summit also discussed the Nations Framework Convention forthcoming Review Conference on Climate Change (UNFCC). Launch of the Year of Peace of the Rome Statute on the The Fourteenth AU Summit and Security in Africa: International Criminal Court (ICC) also endorsed the leadership of and the incidental issue of the Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of In August 2009, AU Heads of pending indictment of President Ethiopia, as Coordinator of the State and Government of the Omar Al Bashir of Sudan for alleged Conference of African Heads of AU, met in Tripoli, Libya, and war crimes committed in Darfur. State and Government on Climate declared 2010 as the Year of The AU Summit endorsed the Change (CAHOSCC). Zenawi Peace and Security. During recommendations of the Ministerial will also coordinate the African the February 2010 Summit, a Preparatory Meeting on the Rome position through CAHOSCC in flame of peace was symbolically Statute held in November 2009 the next two climate conferences handed over to the newly elected in Addis Ababa. Specifically, the in Mexico in 2010 and in South Chairperson of the Assembly, Summit noted the Ministerial Africa in 2011. Malawian President Dr. Bingu recommendations for: wa Mutharika. This flame of peace will be transported to all • the proposal for amendment of Additional Summit Decisions: AU member states. The idea article 16 of the Rome Statute; behind this declaration is to bring In addition to the decisions a degree of focus on addressing • addressing procedural issues adopted above, the Summit: the challenge of promoting peace including guidelines for the and security in Africa. Activities exercise of prosecutorial • approved for the integration will include events geared discretion by the ICC prosecutor; of the New Partnership for towards raising the profile of the Africa’s Development (NEPAD) AU in its efforts in promoting • the immunity of officials whose into the AU structures. This peace as well as in engaging with states are not parties to the ICC will be achieved by the academic institutions and civil treaty; and establishment of a NEPAD society to generate awareness of Planning and Coordinating strategies for making peace. • proposals regarding the crime of Agency (NPCA). The NPCA aggression. will serve as a technical Unconstitutional Change specialised agency of the AU of Government: and will replace the existing There are 30 AU Member States NEPAD Secretariat; The summit considered the that parties to the Rome Statute and the majority will attend the growing phenomenon of • requested the AU Commission unconstitutional changes of ICC Review Conference in Kampala from 31 May to 11 June 2010. to coordinate the organisation government following a Report of joint election observation that was presented on this missions with the Pan–African issue by the AU Commission. Climate Change and the Post- Parliament and other relevant Earlier in December 2009, the Copenhagen Conference: institutions of the Union; PSC had discussed the need to implement sanctions in the event The Summit considered a Report of of an unconstitutional change of the AU Commission on the climate >>page 8

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AU Post-Summit Analysis (continued)

• endorsed report of the indicate that fighting between the and generate refugee flows. Lastly, feasibility study on the Sudanese army and armed militia there are challenges related to the establishment of Trust Fund continues, civilians remain at risk restoration of constitutional order for African Women and issues and peacekeepers are routinely in Madagascar, Guinea and Niger related to their empowerment; being harassed. With reference which will continue to require the to South Sudan, a number of attention of the AU. analysts have also warned that • decided that the theme of the the conflict escalation potential Summit for January 2011 would Overall the 2010 AU Summit remains significantly high due to the be dedicated to the ‘Shared was notable for its raft of forthcoming nationwide elections Values of the African Union’ decisions on key issues such as this year and the 2011 referendum including identifying obstacles the unconstitutional change of on Southern secession. The AU and measures to be adopted government and international Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has to facilitate continental justice. The declaration of a deployed over 5,000 peacekeepers integration based on common Year of Peace and Security will in to the country composed of principles; and not translate into a continent contingents from Uganda and at peace with itself in a twelve Burundi. However, the situation in month period, as the recent • approved a budget of the country remains precarious for events in Niger indicate. However, approximately USD 250 million an embattled Transitional Federal the declaration can serve as an for the financial year 2010. Government (TFG) which continues important catalyst for creating to be targeted by armed militia. a more enabling political The now notorious Al-Shabaab The Summit discussed a selection environment to achieve peace insurgents continue to make military of crisis situations across the and security with the participation inroads and have recently captured continent including Sudan, of African citizens. Somalia, Guinea and Madagascar. a key town close to the border with With reference to the Western Kenya. The ongoing crisis in Somalia Darfur region of Sudan, reports continues to destabilise the region

constitution. The referendum also Comoros, arguing instead for a Mayotte as part of Comoros. sought approval for an amendment diplomatic solution to the internal The UN Security Council has not to the political system through problems. Relations between South demonstrated an appetite for which each island had its own Africa, which has questioned the engaging with the Comorian crisis. president and legislature. This older validity of the referendum, and Particularly among the Permanent system was also broadly recognised Comoros remain problematic. The Five countries there seems to be a as a drain on the country’s limited opposition leader Larifou recently tacit recongition that Comoros is resources. A majority of Comorian traveled to and held discussions in the French sphere of influence, citizens voted for the referendum, with leaders in, Tanzania and and it is not necessary to deploy even though there were some South Africa in addition to trips to valuable diplomatic and political allegations of voting irregularities. Ethiopia, Mauritius and Madagascar. capital to engage with the issue.

Geo-Political Dynamics: UN Dynamics: Wider International Community Dynamics: Pan-African and RECs Dynamics: The UN has been largely absent in the Comorian crisis. The AU In addition to the African Union, Tanzania and South Africa have has effectively taken the lead and France, the Indian Ocean been prominent players in the sustained sole responsibility for Commission and the Arab League, Comorian crisis. Tanzania has the crisis. Within the UN General among others, were involved in cultural and economic ties with the Assembly the dispute between supporting negotiations that led island and is a major contributor Comoros and France over Mayotte, to the brokering of the peace to the AU MAES. Tanzania has has generated a degree of sympathy agreement in 2009. President also worked on harmonizing the for the Comorian position. The Sambi has sought to maintain good AU positions and responses to the UN General Assembly, which is relations with a broad spectrum of situation in the Comoros. South dominated by developing countries, the international community. Since Africa was initially opposed to the has passed a number of resolutions deployment of the AU mission in calling for the recognition of >>page 9

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the Iranian President Mohammed Scenario 4: Ahmedinejad visited Moroni Relevent Documentation in February 2009, Sambi has The AU MAES could reinforce its maintained ties with Tehran which capacity to support post-conflict AU Documents: has become an issue of concern for reconstruction efforts in the western powers, namely France and country and lay the foundation PSC/PR/BR/PS/2(CVII) (21 the United States. On January 2009, for transparent elections and the January 2008) Communiqué on the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister restoration of constitutional order. Comoros Zhai Jun visited Comoros to discuss relations between the two nations Early Response Options: PSC/PR/COMM(XCV) (10 and Beijing pledged to deepen October 2007) Communiqué on bilateral relations with the country. Given on the above scenarios Comoros The US interest in the Comoros the following options could be has increased due to its strategic considered: PSC/PR/COMM(LXXXVII) (13 position in the Indian Ocean and August 2007) Communiqué on Sambi’s growing relations with Iran. Option 1: Comoros In 2008, the US trained troops in the Comoros armed forces and also The PSC could recommend and UN Documents: granted Comoros the eligibility to pursue the establishment of an partake in the African Growth and inclusive dialogue forum to evaluate UN General Assembly Resolution Opportunity Act (AGOA). the progress on the island and asses 31/4 (21 October 2009) on the the effectiveness of the AU’s mission Question of Comorian Island of to provide electoral assistance and Mayotte Scenario Planning: promote stabilisation. This could be achieved by recommending that Scenario 1: the AU convene a post-electoral Useful Additional Resources: convention to assess the state of The protests illustrate that there peace and security in the country. Ayangafac, Chrysantus, ‘Situation Critical: The Anjouan Political are economic challenges facing Crisis’, Institute for Security the country and if they are not Option 2: Studies, Situation Report, 5 effectively managed this could March 2008. www.issafrica.org escalate the political tensions in Recognising that the Comoros the country. The limited presence crisis requires ongoing monitoring Massey, Simone and Bruce Baker, of MAES and a national police the PSC could establish a panel ‘Comoros: External Involvement force, that is facing a number of that follows the implementation of agreements in the Comoros. in a Small Island State’, Program operational constraints means that Paper AFP 2009/1, Chatham there is only a limited capacity to House, July 2009 manage a potentially explosive Option 3: situation. The PSC could recommend the Alwahti, A. ‘Prevention of reinforcing of the AU MAES force Secessionist Movements in Scenario 2: to effectively provide capacity for a Micro-state: International early intervention in the event of a Mediation in the Comoros Island’ The principle of rotation of the crisis escalation. Journal of International Affairs, Presidency between the islands 13(1), 2003, pp.65–83 could be ignored by key political actors undermining stability in the country.

Scenario 3:

The adherence to prior agreements, brokered by the AU, could lay the foundation for the consolidation and institutionalisation of the peace and stability of the Comorian union government.

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the militants to desist from all acts River States. This now represents COUNTRY ANALYSIS of violence and embrace the path 30 million people from about 40 of dialogue in order to achieve ethnic groups. Since 1975, the sustainable peace in the region. region has accounted for more Nigeria’s Niger Delta than 75 percent of Nigeria’s export Crisis Escalation Potential: earnings. However, the challenge Previous AU/REC Statements has been in the implementation of and Communiqués: these recommendations in a way In early February 2010, the main that would assuage the tensions in armed militia in the Niger Delta, the the region. More recently, former On 10 February 2010, the Movement for the Emancipation of President Olusegun Obasanjo Chairperson of the AU Commission, the Niger Delta (MEND), indicated convened the Ogomudia Committee Jean Ping, commended the initiative that it would target oil company in 2001 to assess the issues in to install Goodluck Jonathan as installations as well as personnel. the Niger Delta. However, the Nigeria’s Acting Head of State MEND has been calling for a recommendations of the Committee in the absence of the Country’s greater degree of autonomy and a were not made public. President, Umaru Yar’Adua, due to genuine partnership between the ill health, since November 2009. local people and government in The Chairperson commended the the management of their natural The inauguration of President authorities and people of Nigeria resources and their utilisation for Yar’Adua in May 2007 offered an for demonstrating a ‘respect for the promotion of development. In opportunity for a renewed initiative the constitution, good governance, December 2009, a MEND faction to address the situation in the Niger democracy and the rule of law’. He attacked a pipeline in response to Delta. The Yar’Adua administration also encouraged ‘all the stakeholders what it saw as a lack of progress attempted to convene a Delta in Nigeria, including the military, to with the peace talks. summit but there was a lack of local continue in their firm support for support for the initiative. In May and practice of constitutionality’. 2008, a proposal was put forward The lengthy absence of the country’s The Solemn Launching of the AU to incorporate the armed militia President Yar’Adua prompted PSC, communiqué PSC/AHG/ into security companies so that they concerns about a political vacuum Comm.(IX) of 25 May 2004 could then be gainfully employed to address pressing issues such as requested the Commission of the to guard pipelines and other oil the situation in the Niger Delta. AU to monitor the conflicts on the installations. However, this proposal However, a National Assembly continent ‘and to keep the Council was met with public skepticism and vote for the installation of Jonathan seized on future developments and duly rejected by the armed militia. has to a certain extent assuaged how best we can effectively address In September 2008, the Ministry of tensions. Neverthelss, there are each of them’. The situation in the Niger Delta Affairs was established suggestions that this installation Niger Delta however has not yet to bring a greater degree of focus could be legally challenged. The lack been considered by the Council. on promoting development in the of clarity on the national leadership region. However, due to a limited question could further undermine budget and uncertainty with regards At a regional level, on 23 June 2008, efforts to address insecurity in the to the division of labour between ECOWAS issued communiqué Niger Delta. ECW/A/OJUN34 through its Abuja- the Ministry and the Niger Delta based Commission, applauding the Development Commission (NDDC) Nigerian Government’s Amnesty Key Issues and this has undermined its overall Programme which it extended to Internal Dynamics efficacy. On 8 September 2008, the armed militia in the Niger Delta. Nigerian Government established a The ECOWAS communiqué The challenges in the Niger Delta Technical Committee on the Niger called for the reintegration of date back to the late 1950’s and Delta, as part of its renewed effort former militants into society and successive Nigerian governments to develop a coherent long-term for renewed efforts to promote have sought to address the strategy to resolve the tensions peacebuilding and reconstruction situation through Commissions of in the sub-region. The Technical of the region. ECOWAS lamented Inquiry. The region extends over Committee’s Report recommended the ongoing violence in the Delta approximately 70,000 km² and issuing an amnesty to the leadership and expressed its solidarity with constitutes approximately seven of the armed militia within the the Nigerian Government and its percent of Nigeria’s land mass. It context of ‘a comprehensive citizens in searching for the peaceful consists of the present day Bayelsa, demobilisation, disarmament and resolution of the crisis. ECOWAS Rivers and Delta States. However, in rehabilitation (DDR) programme; commended the policies initiated 2000, the Obansanjo administration an increased allocation of oil by President Yar’Adua aimed at the expanded the parameters of the revenue to the region; the urgent comprehensive development of the Niger Delta to include Abia, Akwa- improvement of infrastructure and Niger Delta region and called upon Ibom, Edo, Imo, Ondo and Cross >>page 11

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10 human welfare services; and new Geo-Political Dynamics: (UNOPS) will also support the institutions for the Delta’s long-term reintegration programme for the development’. Pan-African and RECs Dynamics ex-militia and unemployed youth in the Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa States. UNOPS will provide project The delays in the implementation of Given Nigeria’s prominence in management and professional these progressive recommendations Pan-African affairs, neither the AU capacity building support for this has contributed towards increasing Assembly nor PSC members have reintegration programme. Currently, the tension in the Niger Delta. Core raised the Niger Delta crisis as an UNOPS is implementing an to the issue has been oil revenue agenda item. Nigeria considers the outreach strategy to national and allocation. The environmental Delta situation an internal issue international institutions to acquire devastation associated with the that does not warrant any external accreditation for the technical industry has also become a key commentary or intervention. Yet the and vocational education training aggravating factor for numerous majority of crisis in African states programmes. environmental movements and are fomented by ‘internal issues’ and inter-ethnic conflicts in the region. the PSC Protocol calls upon the PSC Nigeria is now one of Africa’s to comment on situations that could Wider International largest oil producers. However, the potentially threaten regional peace Community Dynamics: persistence of tension in the Niger and security. Nigeria has been re- Delta has limited production to elected to the PSC as of April 2010 The international community has two million barrels of oil per day for the next three years. a stake in the resolution of the which analysts estimate as only Delta crisis mainly due to Nigeria’s two thirds of the country’s potential In contrast, ECOWAS has adopted significant influence in ensuring production capacity - costing a consistent position in repeatedly global energy security. The crisis in around USD $1 billion a month in appealing for the peaceful the Niger Delta has had an impact lost oil revenues. resolution to Niger Delta crisis on oil production in the country. In and has expressed its support this respect, the country’s partners include the US, China, UK and other Over the years local indigenous for the Nigerian Government leading members of the G20 and activity against commercial oil recent efforts notably its ‘Amnesty European Union (EU). For example, refineries and pipelines in the Programme’. ECOWAS has also Nigeria produces 10 percent of total region has increased in frequency consistently called for dialogue US oil imports. Analysts suggest and militancy. MEND has effectively and reconciliation to address the that the Obama administration rescinded its three-month old underlying grievances fuelling could consider providing military ceasefire. On 7 February 2010, the tension in the Delta. support to the Nigerian government Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC), if the current Amnesty Programme a coalition of community leaders UN Dynamics: collapses. and ex-militia issued a statement in which it stated that it had disabled In October 2009, Nigeria was Civil Society Dynamics: a crucial pipeline in the Obunoma elected to a non-permanent seat area of Rivers State which connects on the UN Security Council, along several flow stations to a vital oil with Gabon, for a two year term by The Niger Delta Civil Society export terminal. the 192-member General Assembly. Coalition has called on the Rivers Nigeria began to play its role on State Government and others the UNSC on 1 January 2010. The State governments in the region to The 2009 Amnesty Programme reassess their strategy in dealing with led to thousands of militia giving Nigerian Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe stated that the country the crisis in the Region. The Coalition up their weapons. However, argues that the persistent reliance on renewed militancy does not augur would adopt preventive diplomacy as a key strategy to dealing military force to respond to militia well for peace and security in the and criminal violence are unlikely region. Yar’Adua’s absence may with crisis situations. Whether this approach will be adopted to address the underlying issues. have temporarily slowed down Given the current circumstances the implementation of the post- domestically to address the Delta issues remains to be seen. in the region the Civil Society Amnesty Programme, including the Coalition has appealed to the Federal payment of stipends and re-training government and the Niger Delta of former militants. However, the On 4 February 2010, the UN state governments to support a new new Acting President Jonathan has pledged its support for the Nigerian strategic direction that would create pledged to build on the amnesty Government’s Amnesty Programme a conducive environment for civil for the militants begun by President through a mindset and technical society to play a role in peacebuilding Yar’Adua. Whether this will appease education programme for ex-militia and reconstruction in the Region. the militant groups remains to be in the Niger Delta. The United seen. Nations Office for Project Services >>page 12

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11 A Nigerian non-governmental Option 1: in the Niger Delta, notably their organization, the Socio-Economic obligations to be active members Rights and Accountability Project Building upon the statement of the of peacebuilding and community (SERAP), has initiated legal Chairperson of the AU Commission development as well as eliminating proceedings in the ECOWAS on the political situation in Nigeria, environmental destruction through Community Court, in Abuja, against the PSC could urge the national their profit-oriented activities. the Nigerian Government, the state- government, regional leaders run Nigerian National Petroleum and the militia to eschew armed Corporation (NNPC) and six major violence and create an environment oil firms operating in the country, for peacemaking to proceed. for what it alleges are instances of Documentation: pollution and associated human Option 2: rights violations in the Niger Delta. Relevant AU Documents: SERAP issued a statement in which it identified the corporate plaintiffs The PSC could liaise directly AU Commission Statement (10 as: Shell Petroleum Development with the administration of Acting February 2010) The Chairperson Company (SPDC); Elf Petroleum President Jonathan to assess how of the African Union Commission Nigeria Ltd; Agip Nigeria PLC; it can bring its resources and those comment on the Vice-President Chevron Oil Nigeria PLC; Total of the AU to bare on preventing the Goodluck Jonathan, as the Acting Nigeria PLC and Exxonmobil prevailing peace accord between President of the Federal Republic Corporation. the Federal Government and the Niger Delta militia from collapsing. of Nigeria Scenario Planning: Option 3: RECs Documents:

Scenario 1: The PSC could also invoke the ECW/A/OJUN34, (23 June 2008) Livingstone Formula to directly ECOWAS Communiqué issued The ongoing Amnesty Programme engage with the local Niger Delta at the Thirty-Fourth Ordinary could fail to address the underlying community and militia leaders to Session of The Authority of grievances fuelling the crisis in encourage them to reciprocate Heads of State and Government the Niger Delta, which could the potential goodwill that may escalate tension. In this scenario, be demonstrated by the Federal Useful Additional Resources: the situation could continue to Government by cooperating adversely disrupt oil production on DDR and in ceasing their Government of the Federal and socio-economic development hostage-taking and attacks on oil Republic of Nigeria, Report of in the region. This could make it installations. the Technical committee on the significantly more difficult to engage Niger Delta, November 200 all stakeholders in an effective Option 4: peace process in the region. The PSC and the AU could act in Scenario 2: tandem with Nigeria’s international partners to assess whether the Federal Government would accept The Acting President Jonathan’s an external third-party, perhaps in administration could take immediate the form of a Special Envoy of the steps to reinforce the peace deal Chairperson of the AU Commission, with militants in the Niger Delta. to coordinate mediation efforts and This could lay the foundation for a revitalise the peace process based more comprehensive Niger Delta on the inclusion of the participation Peace Agreement. of civil society actors.

Early Response Options: Option 5:

Urgent and inclusive dialogue The PSC could refer to the AU and action is critically necessary Post-conflict Reconstruction and to effectively resolve the crisis in Development (PCRD) Policy the Niger Delta. Given the above Framework to also highlight the scenarios, the following options importance of the corporate social could be considered: responsibility of oil companies

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12 Peace, Security and the US Africa Command

Following the Fourteenth AU and that ‘ultimately we see very Civil Military Relations (CMR) Summit, in early February 2010, little traditional strategic interest and Civil Military Cooperation the Commander of the United in Africa’. Nevertheless, the past (CMC) initiatives in Africa by States (US) Africa Command, also decade has witnessed a dramatic assisting in the development of a known as AFRICOM, General increase in the strategic importance professional, legitimate, effective William Ward visited the AU. of Africa, particularly due to the and democratically accountable General Ward met with the AU need to access oil and other natural African security institutions Commissioner for Peace and resources, the increased incidents which support democratisation Security, Ambassador Ramtane of terrorism and climate change processes. The capacity building Lamamra, and announced that challenges. These developments programme is also geared towards AFRICOM was willing to assist have compelled the US to revise its avoiding unconstitutional changes the AU in its peace and security strategic involvement in Africa. The of government, confront terrorism, efforts within the framework of terrorist attacks on 11 September drug and weapons trafficking the African Peace and Security 2001 altered the US’ strategic and enhancing humanitarian Architecture (APSA). The visit foreign policy interests, which led and development assistance. was aimed at strengthening ties to increased security, military and However, this commitment was between AFRICOM and the AU as intelligence dimensions of US in questioned following AFRICOM’s well as improving the Command’s Africa. The Horn of Africa and the joint military exercise with image on the continent - which is Sahel region are in particular viewed the armed forces of Gabon, still viewed as a foreign combat as a potential safe havens for Al- in September 2009, after the force in Africa. General Ward also Qaeda and other religious extremist country had a disputed election discussed the security situations groups. which witnessed a crackdown in Sudan and Somalia and sought against protesters. This particular to re-emphasise that AFRICOM’s intervention was broadly criticised It was within this strategic context military role was limited on the because it seemed to have been that AFRICOM was launched in continent. driven by a desire to preserve US 2007. Initial criticisms noted that the geo-strategic interests rather than launch of the Command initiated lay a foundation for democratic On 12 February 2010, three days ‘a militarisation of American consolidation. There is also the after General Ward’s official visit, diplomacy in Africa’. A number of perception that the projection of Jean Ping, the Chairperson of the pivotal AU member states, including US power in Somalia in pursuit of AU Commission, delivered his key regional actors like Nigeria and Al-Qaeda-linked extremists may monthly press conference at the South Africa, openly stated their have exposed AMISOM to further AU headquarters and noted that skepticism about the Command’s targeting. the issue of AFRICOM had never missions. AFRICOM, which is featured on the agenda of the currently based in Stuttgart, AU Summit. Ping further noted Germany, with a staff complement However, AFRICOM’s has also that individual member states of about 600 military personnel made a positive contribution. would adopt their own specific and 600 civilians hand indicated In 2008, the Command helped responses to AFRICOM and that that it had no plans to relocate to to deploy 1,600 Ugandan the AU had not yet sought to have Africa in a near and medium future. peacekeepers to Somalia and it an institutional engagement with However, this has not decreased has also participated in an airlift the Command. However, Ping the suspicion around the ultimate support of AU personnel to acknowledged that the issue was objectives of the Command. Darfur in the context of AU and currently the subject of discussion NATO collaboration. There are and debate in the diplomatic, clearly components of APSA that AFRICOM has repeatedly stated public and academic spheres of could collaborate and partner that its only objective is to work the continent. with AFRICOM on the basis of to promote the peace and security a genuine partnership. More of the continent. In its mission specifically, the PSC can interface AFRICOM’s evolution has statement, AFRICOM also stipulates with AFRICOM on a range of post- followed an interesting that it wants to build the capacity conflict reconstruction issues. trajectory. In 1995, the US of African national security Defense Department released institutions. One of the areas that a memorandum which boldly the Command focuses on is security stated that ‘America’s security sector governance. This specific interests in Africa are very limited’ programme aims to improve >>page 14

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13 Peace, Security and the US Africa Command (continued)

Article 17 of the PSC Protocol security and stability in Africa. The relates to how it was conceived provides the basis for the AU can also decide and determine and operationalised. Clearly, going partnership and working how and whether it would want to forward, AFRICOM would need to relationship of the PSC with engage with the Command. The engage in a more detailed process entities like AFRICOM. Article advantage of this would be the of consultation with its African 17(4) stipulates that the Council harmonisation and coordination partners to address this image shall cooperate and work closely of all AU interactions with the problem. with relevant international Command. However, AFRICOM has partners on issues of peace, a significant image problem, which

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14 Important Forthcoming Dates

1 April 2010 – inaugural meeting of the newly elected members of the PSC who were formally endorsed by the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government during the 14th AU Summit held between 31 Jan – 2 Feb 2010

31 May to 11 June 2010 – International Criminal Court Review Conference, Kampala, Uganda

African Election Calendar for Next Six Months in 2010

Country Election Date

Burundi Communal 20 May 2010 President 28 June 2010 National Assembly 23 July2010 Senate (indirect) 28 July 2010 Colline 7 September 2010

Central African Republic Presidential & National Assembly March 2010

Côte d’Ivoire President Late February or early March 2010 (postponed from 29 November 2009)

Ethiopia House of People’s Representatives 23 May 2010 Regional State Councils

Guinea-Bissau President (1st round) Postponed from 28 June 2009 to June 2010, due to the assassination of president

Kenya Constitutional referendum April 2010

Lesotho Local Government April 2010

Somaliland (autonomous region) President April 2010 House of Representatives September 2010 Local Government Late 2010

Sudan President (1st round) 11-19 April 2010 (postponed from National Assembly, Council of July 2009) States Southern Sudan President (1st round) Southern Sudan Assembly, State Legislatures, State Governors, Local Government

Togo President 28 February 2010

Tunisia Local Government May 2010

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15 Contributors to this Volume:

ISS PSC Report Programme: Dr. Tim Murithi, Alemayehu Behabtu, Hallelujah Lulie

ISS African Conflict Prevention Programme: Jamila El Abdellaoui

Donors: This Report is published through the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Government of Denmark, the Foundation Open Society Institute, and the Humanity United Foundation. In addition, the Institute for Security Studies receives core support from the Governments of Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.

As a leading African human security research institution, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) works towards a stable and peaceful Africa characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy and collaborative security and gender mainstreaming.

Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of the Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute, its trustees, members of the Advisory Council or donors.

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