CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Early Warning Issues for 2010 AU Post-Summit Analysis 7 March 1 Country Analysis: Nigeria’s Pending PSC Issues 2 Niger Delta 10 Country Analysis: Niger 2 Peace, Security and AFRICOM 13 Election of PSC Members 4 Important Forthcoming Dates 15 Country Analysis: Comoros 6 No. 8, March 2010 This report is available on the ISS website and can be viewed together with Thematic Reports on the work of the PSC at www.issafrica.org. All documents referred to in this Report can also be found on the ISS website. Peace and Security Council Protocol ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the PSC of the African Union Early Warning Issues that the Supreme Council for the convened. However, tensions have Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), resurfaced linked to the outcome for March the military junta which usurped of the poll which could escalate the power, had suspended the country’s crisis situation in the country. The scheduled Rotating Chair of new constitution and dissolved all the African Union (AU) Peace state institutions. The restoration Nigeria’s Niger Delta and Security Council (PSC) for of constitutional order has to be the month of March is Zambia. closely scrutinised to ensure that In the absence of a country’s the military leadership does not On 10 February 2010, the representation at ambassadorial entrench itself in power. Chairperson of the AU Commission, level, an alternate member will chair Jean Ping, commended the initiative the Council for the month. to install Goodluck Jonathan as Comoros Nigeria’s Acting Head of State in the absence of the Country’s President, Niger On 9 May 2007, the PSC issued a Umaru Yar’Adua, due to ill health. communiqué, PSC/MIN/Comm.1 The Chairperson commended the On 29 October 2009, the PSC (LXXVII), authorising the deployment authorities and people of Nigeria issued a communiqué, PSC/AHG/ of the African Union Electoral for demonstrating a ‘respect for COMM.3(CCVII), endorsing the and Security Assistance Mission the constitution, good governance, decision on Niger adopted by the (MAES) to the Comoros. On 30 democracy and the rule of law’. At a Extraordinary Summit of Economic April 2008, the PSC communiqué, regional level, on 23 June 2008 the Community of West African States PSC/PR/COMM(CXXIV), extended ECOWAS issued communiqué ECW/ (ECOWAS) Heads of State and the mandate of the MAES to assist A/OJUN34 applauding the Nigerian Government, held on 17 October the central government undertake Government’s Amnesty Programme 2009, in Abuja, Nigeria. Niger’s post-conflict reconstruction and which it extended to armed militia in political landscape was drastically oversee the forthcoming legislative the Niger Delta. The lengthy absence altered when on 18 February 2010 elections. The Council also urged of the country’s President Yar’Adua, a group of soldiers staged a military the island State authorities to create since 23 Novermber 2009, prompted coup and detained President an environment conducive to free, concerns about a political vacuum to Mamadou Tandja as well as several fair and democratic elections. In address insecurity in the Niger Delta. cabinet ministers. The leader of December 2009, after a series of the group, Salou Djibo, declared postponements, these polls were >>page 2 Livingstone Formula ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/ PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs. This Report is an independent publication of the Institute for Security Studies. PSC Report Programme, Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa, T: +251-11-372-11-54; F: +251-11-372-59-54; [email protected]; www.issafrica.org Pending PSC Issues February 2010, issued its Decision engage with regional, continental Document on the Report of the and international actors. Issues pending for the Council Peace and Security Council on its Furthermore, the promise of a include: Activities and the Situation of Peace speedy return to constitutional and Security in Africa in which order has, at least for now, resulted it noted the ongoing mediation in an optimistic atmosphere among Panel of the Wise: process being facilitated by former key stakeholders in Niger as well Nigerian President Abdulsalami as in the international community. In January 2007, the AU Abubacar and urged the inter- However, the process that will Assembly of Heads of State Nigerien parties to fully cooperate indeed lead the country to reverse and Government endorsed the with the mediator. its previous trajectory will have Chairperson of the Commission’s to be closely monitored by both recommendation for the Crisis Escalation Potential: national and international actors. appointment of five esteemed The situation will need to be African personalities to serve transformed quickly in order to Niger’s political landscape was as members of the Panel of avoid the potential frustration and drastically altered when on 18 the Wise. At its 100th meeting factionalisation in the country’s February 2010 a group of soldiers on 12 November 2007, the relatively united opposition, staged a military coup and detained PSC adopted a set of detailed especially now that the ‘common President Mamadou Tandja as Modalities for the Functioning enemy’ has been removed from well as several cabinet ministers. of the Panel of the Wise. These the scene. The crisis escalation The leader of the group, Salou Modalities state that ‘members potential in Niger remains high Djibo, declared that the Supreme of the Panel serve for a period and the current transitional period Council for the Restoration of of three years. They shall be will have to deliver tangible results Democracy (CSRD) had suspended eligible for reappointment for relatively soon to assuage fears that the country’s new constitution only one more term’. The three this might be another military take- and dissolved all state institutions. year period for the first term of over which transforms itself into the Following the coup d’état, which the Panel concluded in January entrenchment of power. 2010. The PSC and the AU reportedly unfolded without major Commission have not issued a interruptions to the country’s communiqué indicating whether daily life, several towns witnessed Key Issues and Internal the terms of the Panel members thousands of people taking to Dynamics: have been renewed, or whether the streets to demonstrate what new Panel members have been was widely regarded as support The coup came after a series of appointed. for the coup. It was reported that meetings facilitated by the ECOWAS the CSRD committed itself to the appointed mediator in the Niger involvement of political parties as Crisis, former Nigerian President well as civil society organisations in Abubakar. The meetings achieved COUNTRY ANALYSIS the drafting of a new constitution little progress reportedly due to the and in the design of a transitional intransigence of President Tandja, process after the situation had been who rejected proposals which Niger stabilised. It also stated Tandja and would compel him to hand over other senior government officials power in less than a year and who were being kept in comfortable Previous PSC Communiqués insisted on maintaining the country’s conditions in the service quarters new controversial constitution. This and Recommendations: of the Presidency where the Red constitution was adopted following a Cross was provided with access to referendum that was declared illegal On 29 October 2009, the PSC them. Several days after the putsch, by both the country’s judiciary issued a communiqué, PSC/AHG/ the CSRD appointed Mahamadou (which was subsequently dissolved COMM.3(CCVII), endorsing the Danda as Prime Minister in a by Tandja) as well as a spectrum decision on Niger adopted by the transitional government. Danda was of international partners and Extraordinary Summit of ECOWAS previously Minister for Information organisations. The new constitution Heads of State and Government, in the transitional government that would have enabled President held on 17 October 2009, in Abuja, was set up after Niger’s previous Tandja to extend his reign for a Nigeria. It also requested the coup in 1999. further three years without elections Chairperson of the AU Commission after having governed for two five- to intensify his efforts towards The situation, although it involved year terms, which officially came resolving the ongoing crisis and the illegitimate capture of power, to an end on 22 December 2009. to continue working closely with appears to be relatively calm. The The new constitution also rescinded ECOWAS. The Fourteenth AU country’s new military regime has the two-term limits enshrined in Summit, held from 25 January to 2 demonstrated its willingness to the preceding 1999 constitution. PSC Report Programme, Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa, T: +251-11-372-11-54; F: +251-11-372-59-54; [email protected]; www.issafrica.org President Tandja’s actions sparked example by suspending Niger’s Scenario Two: protest both nationally and membership of the continental internationally. The military, which body, demonstrating its zero- The military leadership could delay had thus far appeared united and tolerance policy for unconstitutional any transition out of the current relatively neutral, appears to have changes of government, PSC/ crisis so as to extend the duration of finally decided that Tandja’s plan for PR/COMM.2(CCXVI). Both its rule. This could lead to frustration extending his rule would adversely organisations called for a swift among the country’s political affect the country, notably given restoration of constitutional actors and its armed forces could the prevalence of sanctions and the order.