Bush Opens up 18 Point Lead in Gop Race; 56 Percent Say Could Not Back Robertson If Nominated

The Harris Survey

For release: Monday AM, November 16, 1987 1987 H8 ISSN 0273-1037

BUSH OPENS UP 18 POINT LEAD IN GOP RACE; 56 PERCENT SAY COULD NOT BACK ROBERTSON IF NOMINATED

By Louis Harris Vice President George Bush has moved to a decisive 44 to 26 percent lead over Senator Bob Dole in the contest for the Republican nomination. This is a marked shift from last June, when Bush held a tentative and close four point edge over the Kansas Senator. Among the other Republican candidates, former Secretary of State Alexander Haig, Representative Jack Kemp, and Reverend Pat Robertson all are tied at 6 percent, while former Governor Pete DuPont brings up the rear at 1 percent. This latest Harris Survey, based on interviews with 1,123 Republican and independent voters, taken by telephone from October 2nd to 7th and October 29th to November 4th, gives Bush a relatively narrow 7 point edge in the East, a five point lead in the Midwest, but a sizable 18 point margin in the West and a huge 55-17 percent, 38 point lead in the South. Bush's lead over Dole in the South is easily the most important result, because it alone accounts for over half his national margin. Dole must be capable of cutting this Bush lead in the South or he will find it hard to catch up with the Vice President. Another major finding of this latest survey of the GOP presidential race centers on Pat Robertson:

A substantial 56 percent of all Republican and independent voters say they could not vote for Robertson if he were to end up as the Republican nominee next summer. Among Republicans, 51 percent say they could not vote for the evangelical preacher. Among independents, this number rises to 61 percent. This is the highest number ever recorded in a Harris Survey who said they could not vote for a candidate. It is significant, because Robertson has been highly effective in winning potential delegate votes in Michigan, Iowa, and some other states. Despite his relatively poor 6 percent overall showing, Robertson's standing in some of the these states indicates that he might be capable of making a much better showing due to the cadre of supporters he appears able to mobilize within a given state. The fact that a majority of Republicans and 6 in 10 independents could not vote for him is a major setback for the Robertson candidacy. Most opposed to Robertson are professional people and business executives, those with incomes of $50,000 and over, voters on the East and West coasts, young people under 30, Yuppies, and those with a college education. Even among those who are followers of TV evangelicals a substantial 38 percent say they could not support Robertson if he were to head up the GOP presidential ticket. Today, Bush is running just about as well among independent as among Republican voters. Among independents, he leads Dole by 40-26 percent, while among Republicans he has a wider 47-26 percent margin. His lead is uniform among voters in big cities, in the suburbs, and in towns and rural areas. By age, Bush holds a wider edge among young people than among those in the older age brackets. But his edge is substantial among all age categories. He is ahead among men by 17 points and by 19 points ahead among women. He does as well among union and nonunion voters. There is little difference in the standings by political philosophy. Among conservatives, Bush leads by 20 points, among moderates by 14 points, and among liberals by 15 points. By religion, Bush is ahead by 23 points among white Catholic voters and by 16 points among white Protestants. Among followers of TV evangelicals, the Vice President takes 41 percent of the vote, compared with 23 percent for Dole, and 17 percent for Robertson.

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -2- November 16, 1987

Indeed, just about the only kind of significant differences to emerge were by education and occupation: Bush does very well among the less well educated Republican and independent voters, leading by 28 points among those with a high school degree and by 22 points among those with some college, but who have no four year degree. In the case of those with a postgraduate degree, a 40-31 percent plurality prefers Dole to Bush. -- By occupation, Bush holds a 14 point edge among business executives, a wider 29 point margin among small shopkeepers, an 18 point edge among skilled labor types, and a 14 point lead among white collar workers. However, among professionals, Bush's lead shrinks to no more than six points. Thus, it can be concluded that Dole does relatively better among the highest e~~cated voters and those who are professionals. However, he shows enormous pulling power among a wide spectrum of occupations, ranging from blue collar to white collar employees, including those who are retail executives and operators. Businessmen give him a smaller lead and professionals are quite close.

Dole clearly is number two, and the contest appears to be a two-man race. However, if Bush can sustain his wide margin into the primaries and caucuses, it will be tough for Bush or anyone else to defeat him for the Republican nomination.

In the first GOP TV debate in Houston on Bill Buckley's Firing Line program, seen by only 10 percent of all Republicans, Bush came out on top in the minds of 41 percent, followed by Dole at 26 percent, Robertson at 8 percent, DuPont at 6 percent, Kemp at 4 percent and Haig at 2 percent. This division, except for Robertson's slightly better showing, reflected the standing among the entire cross section. While the media thought Bush had done particularly well and Dole had not, these results indicate not much has changed as a result of the first debate. Of course, as the front runner, Bush needs no more than to maintain his lead, not to increase it, in order to keep his commanding lead. TAB L E S

Between October 2nd and 7th and October 29th and November 4th, the Harris Survey asked a nationwide cross section of 1,123 Republican and independent voters by telephone:

"Now, if you had to choose from that list, who would be your first choice for the Republican nomination for president in 1988?

FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION Not ...... -. - -,- ~ -, - ,.,. - ~ - ,.,--- DU.~J.~ uv ...c ,[l.O..l.':;1 .I.'\.'CU1,t=' n.::b2.::-t::;c~ :8~P8~t ~r-:;:-'.e c::"'Y'o. ~ ~ %% % % ~ ~

TOTAL 44 26 6 6 6 1 3 8

East 39 32 7 7 5 2 4 4 Midwest 36 31 7 7 8 1 5 5 South 55 17 4 5 7 2 1 9 West 45 27 7 7 4 1 3 6 Cities 45 24 7 6 7 1 4 6 Suburbs 44 26 6 6 7 2 3 6 Towns-rural 43 29 6 8 4 1 4 5

Age 18-24 56 12 12 7 6 3 1 3 25-29 54 25 6 6 4 2 3 30-49 43 28 5 8 7 1 4 4 50-64 36 32 6 5 7 1 4 9 65 and over 41 26 6 4 6 2 5 10

Less than high school 40 28 6 2 10 3 11 High school graduate 50 22 5 6 6 2 3 6 Some college 44 22 9 10 5 2 4 4 College graduate 45 31 5 6 4 1 2 6 Postgraduate 31 40 7 7 4 2 6 3

(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY -3- November 16, 1987

FIRST CHOICE FOR 1988 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION Not **Bush Dole Haig Kemp Robertson DuPont None sure ~ ~ % % % % -%- -% Men 43 26 6 9 7 2 2 5 Women 45 26 6 4 6 1 5 7

Union household 43 27 6 7 6 1 3 7 Nonunion household 44 27 6 6 6 1 3 7

Republican 47 26 6 6 6 2 2 5 Independent 40 26 7 7 6 1 5 8

Conservative 45 25 5 6 9 1 3 6 Moderate 43 29 8 7 3 2 3 5 Liberal 41 26 4 5 7 1 7 9

White Protestant 44 28 5 5 7 1 3 7 White Catholic 48 25 9 7 3 3 1 4 Jewish 34 33 14 9 10 White TV Evangelical followers 41 23 5 5 17 1 3 5 **Bush Vice President George Bush Dole Senator Bob Dole Haig EX-Secretary of State Alexander Haig Kemp := Representative Jack Kemp Robertson := Evangelical Preacher Pat Robertson DuPont = Former Governor Pete DuPont = no response "Which people on that list do you feel you could not vote for if nominated for president in 1988? Any others?"

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES COULD NOT VOT~ FOK

Not **Robertson Haig DuPont Kemp Bush Dole None sure % % % % % ~~~

TOTAL 56 27 22 14 11 7 10 11

Republicans 51 27 22 13 8 6 11 14 Independents 61 28 23 16 16 8 10 8 **Robertson = Evangelical Preacher Pat Robertson Haig = EX-Secretary of State Alexander Haig DuPont = Former Governor Pete DuPont Kemp Representative Jack Kemp Bush Vice President George Bush Dole Senator Bob Dole

"Did you see or hear the first debate between Republican candidates in Houston this past week, or not?"

SEE OR HEAR DEBATE BETWEEN REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES? (Base: 757 Republicans and independents, interviewed between October 29th and November 4th only)

Saw or heard debate 9 Did not see or hear 90 Not sure 1

(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY -4- November 16, 1987

"Who do you feel did best in that debate -- Bush, Dole, DuPont, Haig, Kemp, or Robertson?" WHICH CANDIDATE DID BEST IN DEBATE? (Base: 9 percent who saw or heard debate)

Bush 41 Dole 26 Robertson 8 DuPont 6 Kemp 4 Haig 2 None 4 Not sure 9

MET HOD 0 LOG Y

This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone within the United States from October 2nd to 7th and October 29th to November 4th, among a cross section of 1,123 Republican and independent voters nationwide. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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