V22, N3 Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2016

Holcomb navigates a stormy sprint New GOP nominee lacks Pence funds, but knows the levers of power By BRIAN A. HOWEY LaPORTE, Ind. – The day began as many others over the past month for Lt. Gov. . There were a fun- draiser, a staff meeting and a departure to The Region. He is a man who wears many hats these days: State executive, gubernatorial nominee, fundraiser, cheer- leader, student. The days are long, sometimes 18 hours or more. The task Lt. Gov. Holcomb with LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo and House Transportation Chairman Bill at hand is huge. Soliday as he handed out a $1 million Community Crossroads check. (HPI Photo by Brian Holcomb must A. Howey) raise somewhere north of $5 million over himself as the governor fill-in. And he must brand himself the next 30 to 45 days. He must gin up his low name while attempting to recover from a polling deficit left over ID. His boss, Gov. , is mostly out of the state from Pence, arguably the most polarizing political figure in physically, and checked out mentally, so Holcomb finds Continued on page 3 Mike Pence’s future By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – Gov. Mike Pence will not be gover- nor of next year. Nor will Pence be vice president, unless there are monumental events to avert the looming defeat of in the presidential race “Mr. Holcomb has to talk about Q. So, where would that leave Pence? things in the past because he has A. Perhaps closer to his no plans for the future other than goal than he would have been if he had declined the vice the same failed policies of the presidential nomination and had run instead for reelection person who hand-picked him.” as governor. - Democratic gubernatorial Q. Really? Losing for vice president, maybe with the nominee John Gregg, to HPI GOP ticket trounced, could leave Pence still viable for his Page 2

goal of president? almost saturation name recognition, A. Quite possibly. In fact, it something he wouldn’t come close to could be argued that the worse the having as . If he trouncing for Trump, the better politi- continues to have a poll rating on the cally for Pence. favorable side, he could be a formi- Q. Won’t Pence share blame if dable future contender. But there also the Trump-Pence ticket is demolished? is danger. A. No. Pence would get no Q. What’s the danger? blame. It wouldn’t be his fault. Pence A. While nobody could blame is a non-partisan newsletter would get credit from Republican lead- him for a Trump loss, some party ers for trying to hold the party togeth- leaders and conservative voters could based in Indianapolis and Nash- er and save Republicans in governor, regard Pence as tainted by linking ville, Ind. Senate and House races. They would with Trump. Conservative columnist WWWHowey Media, LLC think of how much worse things would David Brooks expressed that view 405 Massachusetts Ave., have been if Pence hadn’t been there strongly after the Republican National Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN to clean up after Trump’s messes. Convention. Brooks wrote: “I left the Many Republicans now lament that it’s arena each night burning with indig- 46204 not Pence leading the nation at Mike Pence. I almost ticket. And that’s his don’t blame Trump. He is a Brian A. Howey, Publisher goal, someday, prefer- morally untethered, spiritually Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington ably in 2020, to lead vacuous man who appears Jack E. Howey, Editor the ticket, to be the haunted by multiple personal- presidential nominee ity disorders. It is the ‘sane’ Mary Lou Howey, Editor and win. and ‘reasonable’ Republicans Mark Curry, photography Q. Couldn’t who deserve the shame, the Pence have been closer ones who stood silently by, or Subscriptions to a future presidential worse, while Donald Trump HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 nomination by running gave away their party’s sacred for reelection as gover- inheritance.” HPI Weekly, $350 nor? Q. Do losing a vice Ray Volpe, Account Manager A. Probably not. He didn’t ex- presidential candidates often bounce 317.602.3620 actly gain national recognition during back to win the presidency the next email: [email protected] a first term as governor. There was no time? guarantee that a second term would A. Not often. Politico points have been smoother, less controversial out that no losing vice presidential Contact HPI and more impressive as Republicans candidate has gone on to win the www.howeypolitics.com looked for a 2020 presidential nomi- presidency since Franklin D. Roos- [email protected] nee. It was far from certain that he evelt. Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 would win reelection. His job approval Q. If Pence does get the 2020 Washington: 202.256.5822 rating had been abysmal. He was in nomination, would that problem of a a toss-up race. Defeat would have defeated vice presidential candidate Business Office: 317.602.3620 ended his political career. going on to the White House mean Q. How’s Pence doing now in that he probably would lose that No- © 2016, Howey Politics Indiana. All the polls? vember? rights reserved. Photocopy- ing, In- A. Good. A mid-August Gallup A. Not necessarily. The first ternet forwarding, fax- ing or repro- poll showed Pence with a net favor- step for Pence would of course be ducing in any form, whole or part, able rating of +11, with 36 percent winning the nomination. And the is a violation of federal law without favorable, 25 percent unfavorable and Republican nomination to run against permission from the publisher. 39 percent with no opinion yet. That’s President Hillary Clinton, who would way better than the negative ratings be seeking to extend Democratic con- for Trump and Hillary Clinton. He also trol of the White House to 16 years, was doing better than , his could be much more valuable than the vice presidential opponent, who had a Trump nomination of 2016. v net favorable rating of +3. Q. So, Pence could be a top Colwell has covered politics over presidential contender next time? five decades for the South Bend A. Could be. Pence will have Tribune. Page 3

was an Illinois company which migrated to Indiana 15 Holcomb, from page 1 years ago, or “before it was cool,” Holcomb said. “But it’s a trend. You saw what was possible on the horizon here in modern Hoosier history. Northwest Indiana. It will add to Indiana’s record-setting “I’ve got a day job,” Holcomb says from the front workforce.” Councilman Pettit speaks after Holcomb, seat of the Chevy Tahoe. “Filling in for the governor. I getting very emotional as he talks about Polycon’s move campaign at night. I’m doing four jobs that are equally im- to Merrillville, saying, “This is Berle’s baby, well, I’m the portant. Perpetual motion is my personality.” One day last godfather. If you build it, they will come.” week, he drove to Mishawaka, then over to Elkhart, back Holcomb talked to a Region reporter, saying, “I am to Indy, then flew to Evansville. It’s the daunting “Elkhart laser-focused for years. The Region is blessed with loca- to Evansville” long-play Hoosier loop. tion, location, location. We can get our goods out to 80% A day like last Wednesday was instructive. After of the population in 24 hours. It’s companies like Polycon dialing for dollars, talking with producers about his first that make that happen.” TV ad, running the traps with his staff, he climbs into the As the entourage moves outside to do the symbol- black Chevy Tahoe to Merrillville, where he’ll attend a jobs ic groundbreaking, sunlight breaks out and people smile. announcement with the Indiana Economic Development The sun and encroaching blue skies turn the scene into Corporation at Polycon. There will be a briefing at the Pur- a sultry steam bath, setting in meteorological motion the due Technology Center with IEDC’s Victor Smith and the sensational events over another horizon. Northwest Regional Development Authority’s Bill Hanna and Bill Sheldrake over a light lunch. Then his gubernatori- Tasks at hand al hat goes on with a $1 million INDOT Community Cross- Holcomb is an ardent student of history and he ings check for one of his favorite mayors, LaPorte’s Blair knows what he faces. Never in modern Hoosier politics, Milo. It was to be all capped off with a meet-and-greet at no, make that American politics, has a gubernatorial candi- South Bend diner and a press conference. Somewhere in date faced what Holcomb does today: Essentially a 100- there would be a Howey day sprint to the general election. At Politics interview. this writing, it is down to 75 days. The rain pelting Other nominees have won late-sum- the Tahoe throughout the mer primaries, but after running for two-hour drive up I-65 to months, if not years. Holcomb was a Merrillville seemed routine third-place U.S. Senate candidate who during this very stormy struggled to raise money until Gov. August. Arriving at Poly- Pence named him lieutenant governor con, there is an event tent in March. He won a primary and did outside, but it is raining the things that running mates do. cats and dogs, so the an- This all began to change in late June. nouncement of 100 new Pence’s pollster, , jobs goes inside. Here we suggested Pence to Donald Trump as find Holcomb at his affable the veepstakes headed into its home and rhetorical best. He stretch. spends 15 minutes greet- Lt. Gov. Holcomb listens to Merrillville Councilman Shawn In Trump’s fascinating mind, ing people and making Pettit, who once sparred with Gov. (HPI Photo Pence is from “Importantville, Indi- small talk. “It’s a great by Brian A. Howey) ana.” It is a state at the center of his day, a good day,” Holcomb political universe. Hoosier voters put says at one point. There Trump over the top for his nomination is Merrillville Councilman Shawn Pettit, who once openly on May 3. Why not bring the governor into his fold, even feuded with Holcomb’s former boss, Gov. Mitch Daniels. if Pence had endorsed “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz? There had been There had been questions about Pettit meeting Holcomb, Trump’s meeting with evangelical leaders in June, where but the nominee brushed them aside and engaged in a he provided a list of potential Supreme friendly conversation. Court justices. Trump emerged as a “baby Christian” in Eric Holcomb gets along with just about every- the eyes of , and while no one talks, the body. He and Pettit sat comfortably next to each other as adhesive for the stunning evangelical support of Trump they heralded the new jobs. Berle Blitstein, the Polycon could become thicker and stickier if a true believer such as CEO, pays tribute and quotes to his father, Mort, telling the Pence joined the ticket. triumphant gathering, “Tell the truth and you never have At some point in late June, and certainly by the to remember what to say.” Fourth of July, the new reality hit Holcomb: The Indiana For Holcomb, this is an official event candidates gubernatorial nomination could be up for grabs in just love, announcing a hundred good-paying jobs. Polycon weeks. He found himself as the proverbial “next man up.” Page 4

He had Pence’s backing. He got a shot of national expo- Pence people have checked out and the governor won’t sure when he nominated Pence at the RNC. He could get take questions from Indiana news media, just like he did off to a running start armed with perhaps $5- to $6-million during the 2012 campaign, only to plead for a “do over” in of the Pence reelection warchest. Democrat John Gregg the HPI office three days before he assumed office. had based his entire campaign on being the anti-Pence. There is intrinstic and outward loyalty to the vice On July 14, Holcomb watched his boss fly off to presidential nominee in these Holcomb quarters. But there Teterboro to fetch himself a spot on the ticket as Trump are read-between-the-lines comments. On Aug. 1, when wavered and stewed about media leaks. On July 16, the Holcomb was asked about the Pence funds, he said, “I’ll Trump/Pence ticket emerged in Manhattan. Holcomb had let Gov. Pence speak for every penny he decides to spend. 12 days to secure a nomination, with him and U.S. Reps. I am concerned about raising the money I need. I am and working the Cleveland hotel confident I can do that. We’ll raise the millions it will take alcoves, bars and the Republican National Convention floor to get the message out over the next 100 days.” in search of 12 Republican Central votes. Asked whether some of the Pence funds will be Holcomb worked refunded to the RGA, O’Brien responded, his deep connections with “Can’t comment on what Mike Pence the GOP Committee, hav- might do. I’ll just say the RGA is all in for ing chaired it for the last us and they’ll invest. You’ll see it soon.” two governors. He had the The RGA did put $250,000 into the Hol- support of Sen. . comb campaign earlier this month, with Even though Brooks and Holcomb campaign spokesman Pete Seat Rokita had million dollars calling it a “new investment” and not plus cash on hand, Holcomb recycled Pence funds. had, theoretically, the Pence The brutal fact is, however, that funds. He won the nomi- Holcomb won’t have most of the Pence nation on a second ballot. funds. His mountain of winning an elec- Three days later he would tion in unprecedented fashion just went get $1.25 million from the from Pike’s Peak to Denali. Pence reelect. The day before Hol- The Region lesson comb journeyed to Merrill- At the Purdue Tech Center in Mer- ville, a new reality had set rillville, Holcomb received a briefing on in. Campaign manager Mike something he helped create. It was from O’Brien confirmed what HPI the Regional Development Authority, the had figured out. The Pence RDA, which was created by Gov. Daniels’ campaign, for reasons no Major Moves program. As deputy chief of one knows or if they do, staff, Holcomb was a liaison to many of won’t publicly discuss, failed the trade unions which came on board. Holcomb gets a briefing on the Northwest RDA created to move most of its funds So effective was Holcomb at this mission by Gov. Daniels at the Purdue Technology Center, and to either the Republican that when the 2008 Indiana Democratic chats with IEDC Chairman Victor Smith at Polycon. Governors Association or Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner took place (HPI Photos by Brian A. Howey) the Indiana GOP. “You’re with and Hillary Clinton as not going to see a direct keynoters, the two union sponsors of the transfer from Mike Pence,” said O’Brien. He stayed within event with banners flanking the podium had endorsed Gov. the Holcomb happy warrior MO. “We’ll be fully funded. Daniels’ reelection. Folks tend to like Eric Holcomb. Normally a candidate for governor spends four years The IEDC and the RDA gave a briefing on the stockpiling funds. We can’t do that. Our cash flow will be South Shore Line double tracking, and its southern Lake raise and spend.” County spur, which will take it down to Dyer. This is a That Pence didn’t transfer the funds before $2.3 billion investment, with $1.9 billion coming from becoming a federal candidate on July 19 is a stunning the private sector. Some 15 out of 16 communities have development. Most senior Republicans not only believed pledged CEDIT funding. It’s the kind of asset management the Pence money would go to the new nominee, they Mitch Daniels, and by extension, Eric Holcomb, love. The demanded it. Now they are left to wonder, was this just a Chicago Tribune wrote on Aug. 23 that the South Shore colossal screwup as Pence staffers scrambled to extension and double tracking will be a magnet for Chica- with the door slamming on their posteriors? Or was this goans tired of high taxes, huge deficits and corruption. A a calculated -style move of keeping the funds commute from Michigan City now takes 100 minutes. With available for future post-Nov. 8 options? double tracking, it will take an hour. The Holcomb campaign won’t speculate. The “This is the ground floor for a lot of these neigh- Page 5 borhoods that will be anchored by these transit areas,” Indiana State Police driver, Master Trooper Jerrod Patty, Hanna tells Holcomb in a presentation that also included began reaching out. After a few minutes, Holcomb and Bill Sheldrake. “We’re saying that we’re the gateway to staff went into a LaPorte Fire Department conference Chicago in Indiana. I want Indianapolis to look at us as a room to begin to sort things out. producer.” He later explained, “I was really interested in Gov. Pence was campaigning in Leland, N.C., telling him since he was there at the beginning” of Major and was briefed by his staff before speaking at 3 p.m. At Moves Hanna said of Holcomb. some point, Pence and Holcomb talked. The LG was in Holcomb concluded the meeting, telling Hanna touch with the Indiana Homeland Security department. and Victor Smith, “I think you’re on a brisk walk.” He quickly decided to forgo a campaign stop scheduled On to LaPorte. for South Bend and head to the Emergency Operations Center in Indianapolis. Checks and crisis Holcomb and staff emerged from the conference For a politician, the only thing better than receiv- room. A TV set on the LFD office was showing video of ing a big campaign check is handing one for $1 million to a the actual tornado. Holcomb stood and watched silently, mayor with cameras rolling and reporters scribbling. That flanked by staff and Mayor Milo. There were gasps in the was what LaPorte was all about on this steamy and sunny room when the flattened Starbucks was shown. There Wednesday afternoon. As House Transportation Chairman had been a very brief discussion about whether to swing Ed Soliday, INDOT Commis- through ground zero sioner Brandye Hendrickson, in Kokomo, and it was and an array of IEDC, IN- quickly discarded. DOT, LaPorte city employees There should be no and the press looked on at interference with first the LaPorte Fire Depart- responders. ment, Holcomb presented a With Patty at million bucks to Mayor Milo the wheel, Holcomb in her self-described “Hub of made a beeline back to Awesome.” Indianapolis, traveling “The state is spend- down SR39, U.S. 30 ing $850 million on 770 and U.S. 31 at speeds road projects,” Holcomb approaching 100 mph. said as his cellphone quiv- During the trip back, ered in his pocket. “While staffers learned that other states have struggled, there were no injuries Indiana has continued at the Starbucks and at to invest year after year Markland Mall. “Miracu- after year without raising lous,” Holcomb said in taxes.” A minute later, he reaction. said, “So let’s hand out that Dunn, writing in check.” Milo called Holcomb his HPI column (see a “tremendous champion Page 10), observed, for communities” and then “My cellphone rang added the magic words: at a little after 4 p.m. “Paving work begins next It was Lt. Gov. Eric week in the Hub of Awe- Holcomb. He wanted a Lt. Gov. Holcomb, LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo, Master Trooper Jerrod Patty some.” first-hand report of the and Holcomb aides Jake Oakman and Pete Seat watch TV coverage of the As Holcomb chat- destruction. After hear- devastating Kokomo tornado, then made a beeline back to Indianapolis. ted with the press, HPI got ing my report which (HPI Photos by Brian A. Howey) a call from Howard County was a simple, ‘Tor- Republican Chairman Craig nado on the ground for Dunn, who had just attempted to reach the lieutenant about eight miles, 300 yards wide, massive destruction,’ governor. “We just got hit by the worst tornado since Holcomb told me that the State of Indiana would bring Palm Sunday,” Dunn said, referencing the 1965 legendary all the resources they could and bring them as quickly tornado outbreak. “There are blocks and blocks of homes as possible to Kokomo and Howard County. He wasn’t that have lost their roofs.” kidding. Indiana State Police and State Highway trucks Holcomb staffers Pete Seat and Jake Oakman started to pour into the Kokomo community from around were getting calls and texts on this disaster. Holcomb’s the state.” The LG’s entourage sped past the city on the new Page 6

U.S. 31 bypass Holcomb had helped create with his work levers of power are and how they can be effectively used. on Major Moves, witnessing tornado damage on Markland Holcomb works easily with those from the other Avenue near the bypass. During the trip back, Holcomb side of the aisle. He looks for alliances where others tend monitored a second line of storms to his northwest, which to find opponents and suspicion. spawned even more warnings and tornadoes well into He faces challenges. The Gregg campaign began Wednesday evening. At one point, Holcomb was told there airing a TV ad over the weekend connecting him to the were three funnel clouds on the ground simultaneously. Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the Pence adminis- The LG returned to Indianapolis shortly before 6 p.m. after tration. a 90 minute drive from LaPorte, where he joined Pence at Holcomb approaches RFRA with some distance, the EOC. saying on July 24 that he The planned seeks a balance between HPI interview for this individual rights and segment of the trip religious freedom and will wasn’t broached. This weigh thoughtfully any was a crisis moment. legislation that reaches Watching storm cells his desk if elected. It’s a on radar, Holcomb stance designed not to was concerned about alienate the evangelical where his wife was. wing of the GOP or inde- He was in touch with pendents he must have Gov. Pence. The to win the election. He’s two would meet at surrounded by many fig- the EOC and as the ures in the Daniels wing governor addressed a of the party that would statewide TV audi- prefer the social issues ence at 8 p.m. “truce” though he is alien- Holcomb ated from Bill Oesterle, faced his first natural who once considered disaster as lieuten- him “family.” O’Brien, for ant governor. He was instance, was a driv- calm, collected and ing force behind Indiana matter of fact. Had Competes, the advocacy he ever been in a group pushing for the civil tornado? No, he said. rights extension. The Holcomb Epilogue campaign doesn’t see Holcomb social issues as a priority, faces a political tor- with sources saying the nado on Nov. 8. There issue is way down the list are bizarre crosswinds of what Hoosier voters with the Trump/Pence seek. But it will be an is- campaign, with the sue that will surface in the reemergence of Evan debates and in January. Bayh in the U.S. Sen- Voters will want to know ate race, and with where he stands. one hand financially As last Wednes- tied behind his back. day revealed, Holcomb He is a constant font understands the levers of of good cheer. He is incumbency that give him curious and engaged. some advantages. He’s He tends to find a made what one source good balance of levity Lt.. Gov. Holcomb rides shotgun as Master Trooper Patty makes a beeline says is a five-week media and humor. His staff down U.S. 31 to the EOC. Holcomb with Gov. Pence at the EOC getting a brief- buy. time with Gov. Dan- ing on the Kokomo tornado, then on the ground in Kokomo with Gov. Pence, With nine weeks iels and Sen. Coats Mayor Greg Goodnight, Sen. Jim Buck, Sen. and Rep. Heath left, the Holcomb/Gregg has given him a good VanNatter. (HPI, Indiana Public Media and Kokomo Tribune photos) race has a long way to go, grasp of where the but it will be fast. v Page 7

now. We can start making progress. It’s going to take Gregg seeks solutions a coordinated plan with law enforcement, public health people to deal with it. I can go and buy heroin out in the country cheaper than a six pack of beer. We’ve got 14 as drug, mental health opioid treatment facilities in the state and Illinois has 71. Leaders need to talk about tough issues.” crisis impacts Indiana A day earlier in Evansville, Gregg unveiled his “Safe Communities Plan,” stressing the urgency of dealing By BRIAN A. HOWEY with the state’s drug problem. “Indiana leads the nation WEST BADEN, Ind. – It’s a story John Gregg has in meth, we’re fifth in heroin and 15th highest for opi- heard over and over and over again: Employers have job oid overdoses,” Gregg said. “Yet, Indiana lags behind its openings. They just can’t find enough applicants who can neighbors when it comes to access to treatment, despite pass a drug test. studies proving that a dollar spent on substance abuse When he broached the topic at a speech before treatment saves $4 in healthcare costs and $7 in law en- the Indiana Association of Cities forcement and other criminal justice costs.” and Towns last winter, some 20 “John Gregg and I are about practical solutions local officials, “mayors, clerk-trea- and real results. We know that the success and growth of surers, city councilmen followed our economy are directly linked to the safety and security me out the door to talk about it.” of our families and communities,” said State Rep. Christina Another time it was a group of Hale, Gregg’s lieutenant governor nominee. “We will work executives he met with in India- with all communities, all stakeholders and all Hoosiers to napolis. take on these important issues and move Indiana forward.” It isn’t just those who can’t pass a marijuana Observing that Indiana ranks in the 40th percen- screening, Gregg said in a sit-down interview with Howey tile in mental health funding, and with Senate President Politics Indiana here at the Indiana Democratic Editorial David Long and House Speaker acknowledg- Association convention. Cheap heroin is now available in ing the need for more, how does Gregg envision funding? rural areas across the state as well as cities and suburbs. “Excellent question,” Gregg said. “We’ve got to see “We’re dealing with heroin addiction,” Gregg said. “It’s a what works and what doesn’t. You have to have prosecu- mental health issue. There’s tors, state police, local police, such a stigma attached to county sheriffs sitting at the drug addiction. If someone table. You’ve got to have has a mental health problem, Workforce Development sitting people will say, ‘How can here. Some of these are under we help you?’ If it’s a drug the governor, some under the addiction, they don’t know lieutenant governor. Then you what to say. We’ve got to have the mental health people lose the stigma. These are sitting there and the doc- our brothers and sisters, our tors and social workers. You co-workers, our neighbors have to have the DOC. You’re and members in our church talking about a huge table congregation. It grew out of of people. At the local level, listening to people for four some of these are under the years talking about drug county council and some are problems. under county commissioners. “Hoosiers need to We have to map out who’s feel safe in their homes, Democrat gubernatorial nominee John Gregg talks with HPI in doing what and what works. in their work place, in their the library of the West Baden Hotel on Friday. (HPI Photo by I don’t have any idea what schools and in their commu- Brian A. Howey) works. But it’s not me, it’s we.” nities,” Gregg said. “That’s a “We’ve got to collect fundamental right. It is one of the four major points that I better data,” Gregg continued. “One area where we are have talked about since January. It’s not a political prob- leaving money on the table is with the federal govern- lem. Addiction is not a Republican addiction or a Demo- ment. There are a lot of federal monies available for public cratic addiction. We’re doing nothing about it. We don’t health, workforce development, pre-kindergarten. We have know what we’re doing.” to actively pursue the grants.” Gregg noted Gov. Mike Pence’s Drug Task Force The Gregg/Hale Plan has six components. It will and said he would keep it in place if elected. “This is not create a statewide drug treatment network made up of going to be fixed two years from now, four years from new and existing treatment facilities; require physicians Page 8 and pharmacists to more routinely check Indiana’s pre- businesses that hire ex-offenders; and assemble a working scription drug database to prevent potential addictions or group of experts to examine the various services available overdoses; direct Indiana State Police (ISP) to concentrate to ex-offenders in order to streamline services and reduce resources in drug usage hotspots; increase ISP undercover waste. assignments and take down “pill mills”; support legislation And Gregg promised to end budget reversions for to provide first responders with medication to halt over- public safety departments. “I’m done reverting money of doses; combat drug smuggling by creating a multi-person public safety units. The legislature appropriates money to interdiction team in each of the state police operational ar- a public safety agency,” he said. “They need it. They need eas; share data among law enforcement agencies to better to be able to spend that money.” coordinate, track and predict drug trafficking; and increase penalties for those who target pharmacies for the purpose On other issues: of making methamphetamine. Gregg said that the state had a $1.2 billion They will work with local law enforcement surplus when the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks oc- agencies to implement community policing approaches in curred and he favors keeping that kind of cushion. interested cities and towns across Indiana by helping local “We didn’t have to lay off state troopers,” Gregg said. “I’m agencies apply for federal grants; developing a statewide glad we’ve got a healthy surplus and I’ve never voted for policing model of best practices and recommendations to a tax increase. I’m not proposing any tax increases. But promote better interaction and communication between what I am saying is when your roof leaks, you fix it.” law enforcement and the communities they serve; sup- Asked about the $800 million deficit Hol- porting independent and professional investigations in comb says Gov. Mitch Daniels inherited from the Ker- police involved shootings; creating a toll-free tip line to nan Administration, Gregg noted that the Republican In- anonymously report suspicious activities in communities; diana Senate signed off on every budget he played a role and by directing the Indiana State Police to coordinate in. “They were all bipartisan,” Gregg said. “They forget we with the Indiana Department of Education, the Higher had a surplus. They need to be honest and just say, look, Education Commission and that money was spent because of 9/11. The local authorities to offer economy shut down overnight and they know assistance to individual that. I always get a kick out of Eric Holcomb schools in developing safety saying ‘we inherited.’ He didn’t do anything to plans. solve the state’s problems. He was a political On the topic of hatchet man. If he thinks he did, good for sexual assaults of Hoo- him. History and the facts show otherwise. sier youth, the Democrats The legislative process is taking the best will propose legislation ideas of Democrats and Republicans. That’s to update state laws and why Brian Bosma and I worked together to shut down acts of vio- repeal the inventory tax. Mr. Holcomb has to lence against our youngest talk about things in the past because he has citizens. Proposals include John Gregg unveiled his “Safe Communities” no plan for the future other than the same measures to increase penal- proposals in Evansville on Thursday. failed policies of the person who hand-picked ties for those who purchase him. Everybody knows who picked him.” commercial sex from mi- How does Gregg approach the race with nors; ban convicted sexual predators from school grounds; Pence out? “No differently,” Gregg said. “It’s still about develop guidelines for online communication between the economy. That’s all it’s ever been about. The truth school personnel and students; and support additional of the matter is our per-capita income slid to 38th, four background checks and training for all adults working with places, under my current opponent’s watch. That means children. that a family of four, a mom and dad and two kids sitting They will work with the Indiana State Police down for supper tonight here in Springs Valley, they’ve got to expand their cybercrimes unit to more aggressively go $7,000 less a year. That’s $150 a week. That affects your after those who prey on children and the elderly, com- grocery bill, the car you drive. That’s a lot of money.” mit identification theft, or who steal personal or business On a civil rights expansion: “My opponent information. immediately said he was ready to run on Mike Pence’s With nearly 38 percent of offenders released from record,” Gregg said. “He felt the governor struck a good the Indiana Department of Correction being recommitted balance on the LGBT issue and he is more of the same on within three years of their release date, the Gregg/Hale social policies.” He views the civil rights expansion through administration will work to stop this expensive revolving an economic lens. “We’ve got to get away from social door. To help non-violent offenders find employment, a issues. This is an economic issue. If Indiana is going to Gregg/Hale administration will offer expungement assis- grow, we have to be a welcoming state. It is an issue with tance at DWD WorkOne locations; create tax credits for us in keeping talent and recruiting talent, keeping the Mil- Page 9 lennials here. Bring our young people Gregg would like to see high speed back to Indiana. This is a huge eco- broadband for all Hoosiers within four nomic impact. We’ve got a damaged years. “Fourteen percent don’t have reputation and my opponent believes broadband access,” Gregg said. “That that LGBT discrimination doesn’t mat- is on our short list of goals. We want ter, but it does. It’s the same old Mike that program up within four years. Pence agenda. He learned under John We hear from our friends in the Hostettler.” Gregg vowed to push for utilities, ‘We’re getting there, we’re the expansion “in my first State of the getting there.’ Well they are not get- State address.” He added, “It’s not just ting there fast enough. Kentucky and a Democrat issue. Mayors Brainard, Tennessee now have it statewide. It’s Ballard, Bennett and Winnecke have something we have to have if we’re all pushed the issue” he said of the going to stay viable.” Republican mayors of Carmel, India- On where the race napolis, Terre Haute and Evansville. stands: Gregg said that the recent Gregg’s DOMA vote: Asked internal Democrat poll for Evan Bayh about his support for the Defense of had him leading Holcomb by 7%. The Marriage Act, Gregg said, “Is that the recent Monmouth Poll had Holcomb bill that signed? Yeah. Is leading 42-41%. “We don’t focus on that the bill Hillary Clinton voted for? that, we focus on name ID and posi- Yeah. When I’m talking about civil tive and negative,” Gregg said. “We rights, we’re talking about basic civil have great name ID. We focus on rights protection. They can talk about substantive issues and fundraising. anything they want to. The whole issue We’re going to focus on fundraising. is about civil rights protection. They I’m not going to sleep in until the day can talk about me and my record. They after the election. I’ve got Republican always want to talk in the past. He legislators who say we have good wants to go back.” ideas.” v On universal broadband: Page 10

that there was no reason that he couldn’t visit her organi- Surviving the zation on this trip. We hurriedly hopped in my vehicle and started for town. At 2:45 p.m. we pulled into the parking lot at her Kokomo tornadoes main building and both of our cellphones began sounding By CRAIG DUNN an alarm. Until that point, we had no idea that a tornado KOKOMO – Howard County and the City of Ko- had been sighted, heading for Kokomo (pictured above). komo are not the first areas to be visited by the destruc- After the 2013 tornado unexpectedly hit tive forces of a tornado, nor are they the victims of the Kokomo on a Sunday afternoon in November, Howard worst tornado. They are the victims of three nasty twisters County government addressed the problem of emergency that touched down last Wednesday. When you are in the notification. Unlike many cities of their size, Kokomo had middle of a tornado you don’t spend a lot of time debating not installed tornado sirens. Instead of sirens, Kokomo whether it is an F2, F3 or F4 storm that is flattening your City government had arranged for weather radios to be house, destroying your business available for its citizens at significant discounts. This was a or totally disrupting your day- step in the right direction but didn’t address warnings for to-day life. those at work, ball parks or in their autos. Howard County There’s quite a bit of government made the significant commitment to fund and chance and luck that goes implement the Everbridge Mass Notification system. The into determining whether you Howard County Council allocated over $500,000 for its emerge alive from a big tor- purchase and the Howard County commissioners arranged nado. When and where the for the implementation from start to finish. twister touches down, the time Once again, until my cellphone sounded the alarm, of day, how long and wide the I had no idea that there were serious problems looming in path of destruction and the day the dark skies approaching from the west. of the week are all variables We walked into the Bona Vista building where the that go into Mother Nature’s building’s tornado siren was blaring. My brother received lottery of life. Of course, deci- a quick tour as my wife went from room to room making sions and actions taken by governmental bodies and sure that all of the 200 children in the building were safe individuals also help or hinder the ultimate outcome of the in interior rooms, huddled with Bona Vista staff members. tragedy of a tornado. While my wife busied herself with making sure the Very accidentally, I found myself at ground children were safe. I pulled up Tune In Radio on my cell- zero in the direct path of the tornado at 3:20 p.m. Some- phone and dialed up the Howard County Sheriff’s Depart- times innocent decisions can alter your life. Thankfully, my ment radio communications. I was amazed that our brave number didn’t come up on the big old wheel of fortune deputies were out risking their lives to dutifully radio in the this time. It was 2:25, and I was in the family room of play-by-play course of the storm. After about three report- my home, entertaining my brother visiting from Florida. It ed sightings of a tornado on the ground, you could plot was sunny outside but you could hear a faint rumbling of the course of the storm and know that an angry Mother thunder from the west. My brother said quite offhandedly Nature was bearing down on the location where I stood. that the next time he visited that he would like to visit my The cellphone warning, coupled with the clear wife’s business. Jill is president of Bona Vista Programs, locational reports of the path of the tornado, was probably a large not-for-profit that serves mentally and physically the single biggest factor in saving people from major injury challenged infants, children and adults. I told my brother or death. With the children secure and the other numerous Page 11

Bona Vista facilities notified, my wife, brother, three staff did a great job in initially helping those in the most need members and I headed to the windows on the west side of and in securing areas with live electrical wires. Later, they the building. We could see swirling clouds and little funnels provided rescue assistance and helped to secure residen- trying to drop down. From all appearances it looked like tial neighborhoods from outside intruders. the tornado had lifted up from the ground and just might My cellphone rang at a little after 4 p.m. It was spare a sizable chunk of Kokomo from disaster. Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, who wanted a first-hand report However, of the destruction. Af- this was not to be. ter hearing my report, After staring into “Tornado on the ground the approaching for about eight miles, disaster for a few 300 yards wide, massive minutes, it be- destruction,” Holcomb came obvious that told me that the State of we weren’t even Indiana would bring all the looking at the real resources they could as tornado, which was quickly as possible to Ko- hidden by a grove komo and Howard County. of trees. All we He wasn’t kid- could see above the ding. Indiana State Police trees was a boil- and state highway trucks ing black cloud and started to pour into the intermittent flashes Kokomo community from of bright blue around the state. The next and orange from morning, Gov. Pence left numerous electri- his vice presidential cam- cal transformers as paign to come to Kokomo they exploded. We couldn’t see the funnel shape of the with Holcomb and Sen. Joe Donnelly to view the destruc- tornado for the trees. Until we could! First came the swirl- tion and reassure the people most affected. Later, Reps. ing debris cloud throwing out small boards and tree limbs. Todd Rokita, Susan Brooks and Todd Young also came to Next came chunks of roofs, more boards and larger limbs. offer help. We had just enough time to run to an interior room and There are many stories of bravery and good deci- take cover. One minute later, it was all over. It was 3:20 sions that saved lives and protected property. From the p.m. caregivers at Bona Vista who herded frightened children We emerged to thankfully find that everyone into interior rooms, to the barista at Starbucks who moved in the building was uninjured. I stepped outside to see a his customers and staff into a restroom just before his nightmare of destruction just 75 yards from where I stood. building collapsed, to the teachers and administrators who The roof of the building looked like a hairbrush with 2x4s held their students in place, to our first responders who sticking straight out the top. A partial garage lay in the raced to the scene of disaster, we owe a tremendous debt parking lot, dropped out of the sky like an empty pop can. of thanks. You made the randomness of natural disaster Boards, roofing and limbs covered everything. Car win- less severe than it could have been. dows were exploded from pressure differentials, debris or To the Red Cross, Salvation Army and those a combination of both. All of the autos were peppered with charities and organizations that remain unseen until pockmarks from projectiles hurled by the fury. disaster strikes, I say thank you. I will never forget the My own office was three blocks south of the main man who was filthy dirty and exhausted from his clean-up path of destruction. My brother and I brushed the glass duties, who stood in front of the mobile relief unit of the out of the seats of my vehicle and made our way through Salvation Army waiting for something cool to drink. The a sea of destruction to check on my business. Three years look on his face expressed a gratitude that words could earlier, in the November tornado, most of the roof and all never express. of the windows of my office were destroyed. This time we Finally, I thank the government that many months were lucky and we dodged nature’s bullet. earlier made a significant investment in the safety of its As we drove from my office to my home, forced citizens and gave us 30 minutes to protect ourselves and to take a route eight miles to the west before we could others. We don’t thank government very often, but this find an open road to the north, I was amazed at the quick time they did a job well. v response of Kokomo’s police and fire services, along with Howard County sheriff’s deputies. It was obvious that they Dunn is chairman of the Howard County Republican were rolling before the storm stopped. All of these first re- Party. sponders were obviously organized and very well led. They Page 12

is not the same thing politically. Competing blank Anger often does not have coattails. If it did, 80-year-old Republican senators would not have been re- nominated in the same primaries as Trump. For an “angry slates for governor voter” year in both parties, most incumbents survived at By an incredibly high rate and by large margins. Furthermore, FORT WAYNE – The challenge of this year’s gu- in my time in Indiana politics I seldom saw a more vicious bernatorial election is different. Contrary to feelings inside backlash than against both Mourdock and Bennett. Yet most campaign bubbles, almost no one is paying attention Gregg somehow managed to lose last time. and few voters care about the race. This helps both Eric Evan Bayh’s attempt to rescue the Indiana Holcomb and John Gregg because both begin as relative Democrats is another matter. Peggy Noonan once memo- unknowns to most but party loyalists. Name identification rably wrote about Jack Kemp that a sign of his political is not the same as having an image attached to it. weakness was that the applause when he was introduced It helps Holcomb because attempts by Gregg to was greater than at the end of his speech. Bayh may be connect him to Mike Pence facing that problem upon his return to Indiana. Residency don’t work except to appeal to in Washington, his and Susan’s lobbying ties, and the fact hard-core Democrats. The ob- that he had previously sought to be Hillary’s vice presiden- session with all things Trump, tial choice lead me to this prediction: Bayh will continue to and secondarily with all things weaken until election day. The only questions are whether Hillary, means that voters at there is time for Todd Young, with this presidential cam- this point connect Pence with paign sucking out all the oxygen, to overcome the initial Trump. While Trump/Pence Bayh enthusiasm and whether Bayh’s huge dollar advan- could lose in Indiana, it cer- tage can knock down Young faster than Young can intro- tainly doesn’t appear so and duce himself. my guess is that Indiana would For John Gregg, without Bayh he was toast. With be one of the last states to go Bayh, he has a chance. By most accounts, Gregg is a lik- even in a Democrat tsunami. able man and is competent. He’s just a liberal and a weak So why would you tie Holcomb candidate. to Pence? Eric Holcomb has a better than even chance What could matter, if Holcomb capitalizes upon it, to win this race but he has a few challenges. The most are his even closer ties to Mitch Daniels. Daniels is a popu- obvious is funding, since he entered late and fundraising lar and respected figure, possibly more in memory than has not been his strength. Holcomb is best at meeting at the time. It would make Gregg appear to be running people, getting out among the folks and impressing party against both Pence and Daniels. stalwarts. Both Daniels and Pence did that well, but also On the other hand, Gregg has a different problem were aggressive at shaking their checkbooks lose. A key than Holcomb. For someone who served in his first elec- variable, both for Holcomb and Pence, will be whether the tive office 42 years ago and was Indiana House speaker in funds Pence collected to run for governor will be diverted the last century, he also remains a relative blank slate. He to the presidential race or a future Pence fund in imitation is the caricature of an “old boy Indiana politician” to those of Evan Bayh’s pot of gold. Was it a Pence fund or a fund who can identify him. Part of the reason is because Gregg to elect a Republican governor of Indiana? This will impact chose to run an ad campaign the last time he ran for gov- Holcomb as much as any other variable. ernor that positioned himself that way. It seems obvious that should Gregg also cannot escape that he has been and is be more prominently featured, including in ads with Hol- a Hillary guy in a state where Hillary people aren’t over- comb. Crouch is marginally better known than Holcomb, whelmingly popular. In other words, Gregg’s blank slate and is a superior candidate compared to Gregg’s running can be filled with things that do repel voters including his mate. Usually the candidate for lieutenant governor is not past record. especially important, and tradition would say that an un- Thus Gregg has tried a couple of things. One known gubernatorial candidate needs to spend the money is to act like he is running for superintendent of educa- on defining himself and his opponent. tion. has been a remarkably incompetent But Holcomb is just too unknown too late in the superintendent of education, but as any observer knows, race to fully build a complete image. Furthermore, Crouch the program is popular among those who helps cover one of the greatest vulnerabilities of the GOP utilize it and hated by those aligned in any way with the right now. She also has a proven record of governing and public schools. Politically that is important because in is a strong campaigner. Utilization of Crouch needs to be Indiana, many of those teachers, school board members done now, as the Holcomb-Crouch team, when the vot- and PTA leaders are Republicans. They didn’t elect Ritz; ers hopefully began to pay some attention post-Labor Day they ousted Bennett. It is the same governing result but it to statewide races. If Trump starts to melt down, Crouch Page 13 is the most likely person to help blunt a collapse from gubernatorial race. In spite of the looming national Trump spreading, but you can’t do that just in the last days and debacle, it still looks like a potentially good Republican expect it to work. year in Indiana. For Indiana Democrats, if they get swept The Indiana statewide races are most likely to this year, they are looking at an abyss. v again be close. Young is showing creative aggressiveness in the Senate race. Holcomb needs to do the same in the Souder is a former Republican congressman.

last four years. Labor is energized Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz, who has suffered the brunt of those attacks, is leading the push for a strong teacher turnout. And for the governors race to bolster the Lake County and Hispanic turnouts is the By RICH JAMES candidacy of Lorenzo Arredondo for attorney general. He MERRILLVILLE – If Lake County Democratic Chair- retired six years ago after several decades as Lake Circuit man John Buncich has said it once, he’s said it a hundred Court judge. But a recent issue is the one that may be the times. “We can’t take four more years of Mike Pence,” is key that Democrats were seeking. Buncich’s standard line. Democrats have pointed out that Republican With Labor Day just a few days away, Lake vice presidential candidate Pence, who remains Indiana County’s once dominant, but still governor, has taken time to visit flood-stricken Louisiana powerful, Democratic Party is and tornado-damaged Kokomo, Indiana, but has failed to ready to launch the two-month personally visit East Chicago in Lake County. Hundreds of campaign leading up to the Nov. East Chicago residents are being forced from their homes 8 election. But, of course, it because of the discovery of massive amounts of lead in won’t be Pence who Democrats the soil in a section of the city. will be facing. But that doesn’t Pence’s office has said the governor is aware of matter to Buncich, who doubles the situation and has sent his staff to help out. as county sheriff. “You look at But Pence did find time to take part in the open- (Eric) Holcomb and you see ing of Donald Trump’s Indiana headquarters in Carmel less Pence,” Buncich said of the lieu- than a week ago. And, even though Pence never again will tenant governor who is Pence’s be governor, those Fire Mike Pence signs continue to dot replacement on the ballot for the landscape in Northwest Indiana. v governor. Holcomb, in fact, has vowed to campaign on Pence’s record. Rich James has been writing about state and local The fall campaign will culminate with a late Octo- government and politics for more than 30 years. He ber victory rally at the Greek Hall in Merrillville with some is a columnist for The Times of Northwest Indiana. 800 expected to attend. U.S. Senate candidate Evan Bayh, governor candidate John Gregg and the rest of the state ticket will headline the rally. Also this fall across Lake, Porter and LaPorte counties, Democrats are planning a massive registra- tion drive hoping to add 10,000 voters to the rolls. Democrats in Northwest Indiana traditionally have relied on its massive labor force to turn out massive pluralities. But that hasn’t been the case over the last decade, as the number of jobs in the steel indus- try and the building and construction trades have dwindled. Yet, labor remains a force to be reckoned with, said Dan Murchek, the general manager for the Northwest Indiana Building and Construction Trades Council. “Labor is energized,” Murchek said a week ago, adding that teachers particularly want change after the Republican attacks on education over the Page 14

going to do what we can to help Mr. Drake put together a Drake starts 8th CD good campaign.” While Zody promises aid, Drake may have trouble gaining the attention or financial support of the Indiana race three months late Democrats, due in key statewide races to finance but also By THOMAS CURRY two additional congressional races that have a chance to INDIANAPOLIS – The Democratic candidate for turn from red to blue. With in the 9th CD be- U.S. representative in Indiana’s 8th CD is 78 years old and ing nationally recognized on the red-to-blue list and with last held public office when Lyndon Johnson was president. Lynn Coleman in the 2nd CD running in a more Democrat Ron Drake is three months behind in the fall cam- favorable district, Drake finds himself ranked third terms of paign due to a lengthy recount process resulting in his May what congressional races Democrats have the best chance 3 primary defeat by four votes of David Orentlicher, physi- to flip. cian, attorney and college profes- Drake remains hopeful his campaign can pull sor. He is pitted against incumbent off what many might consider impossible. “This year, all . It is an election things are possible,” he said. “ won the 8th year when Democrats’ wallets are CD primary; that tells me voters are looking for alterna- already stretched thin supporting tives to what they have had in the past.” And he may be key races around the state. But right, if there was ever a year a man 50 years removed the nail in the coffin might be that from the public spotlight could make a political comeback, he has only $3,550 in his political warchest. Ron Drake has it would be this one. Congress is at a historically low ap- a tough road ahead. proval rating and both political parties have candidates “I’ve lost half of the with unprecedented favorability ratings. campaign time, time that can’t On top of that, with a Trump tsunami be made up. To deny I am the becoming more possible by the day, underdog would not be facing the and with Indiana Democrats up in truth,” Drake told HPI. Meanwhile, the gubernatorial and Senate races, Bucshon has accumulated some it could prove enough to carry down- $800,000, a money advantage on ballot candidates like Drake. top of winning the district twice Regardless of the narrative, already. Bucshon is sitting pretty the odds are against Drake. Despite with two months to go. that, he promises to soldier on and to Former state representa- “campaign the only way I know how. tive Dave Crooks tried and failed To walk the streets, to go door to door in a run against Bucshon. Now the and talk with people. I want people to Daviess County chairman, Crooks know that money isn’t everything in told HPI that he learned quickly politics. It’s not what everyone should that you spend eight hours on focus on.” the phone every day, calling for Drake said that he is finding more support. “It’s all about money,” support every day and that he has He said. “ To have less than three talked with the national party. But for months to get money for media a candidate without time or money on time; that is going to be a big blow his side, any support now may prove to him. Obviously he is a long shot. too little, too late. He is against an But, I can attest that what hap- incumbent in a Republican-leaning pens at the top of the ticket affects district and has less than half of his a campaign greatly. With Evan opponent’s campaign time. Drake’s Bayh and John Gregg on the ticket, campaign may already be buried in Drake may be able to harness the the dirt of a three-month-long recount Democratic energy.” before September even arrives. Indiana Democrat Chair- man John Zody cautioned: “We Governor are still looking at the numbers in the 8th, we just got our nominee Gregg plays the RFRA card there.” In regard to aiding Drake’s Democrat John Gregg unveiled campaign through fundraising or a new TV ad on Sunday, seeking to otherwise, Zody said that “the tim- connect Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb to ing window here is shorter. We are the controversial Religious Freedom Page 15

Restoration Act. “After Mike race against Gregg. Democratic polls Pence forced RFRA on Indiana, show Gregg with a 7% lead, while the Eric Holcomb was behind him, Monmouth Poll shows the race a dead cheering him on. RFRA was a heat. WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana national embarrassment,” the will be polling the presidential, U.S. ad voice over says. Senate and gubernatorial races in The ad comes as September. Holcomb began his first TV ad, talking about his decision to Candidate forum tonight enlist in the Navy during the Desert Storm era. Indiana University’s Public Policy Institute will host So the definition game is in full swing. Holcomb a forum with the Republican, Democrat and Libertarian is trying to burnish his own credentials more than four candidates for governor this evening in Indianapolis (Ober, months after Gregg began a sustained TV ad campaign Inside Indiana Business). The school says the event will on May 5. Gregg defined himself, then began staking out mark the first time the three candidates, Eric Holcomb, issue stances. Holcomb’s dilemma is he must establish John Gregg and Rex Bell will speak at a single function ad- himself, then begin to take swings at Gregg. Holcomb has dressing a wide range of issues. The forum, set for 7 p.m. just nine weeks to build up his name ID and pull into the at Hine Hall Auditorium at IUPUI. v

force. (There are six official rates produced Not all peaches and each month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Conser- vatives and liberals have their favorites. Few are satisfied with the most widely quoted rate; we’ll leave that for next cream in Indiana week.) By MORTON MARCUS In 40 of our counties, more people were employed INDIANAPOLIS – Somebody is sure to ask, “Are in 2015 than in 2007. At the same time, 44 counties saw you better off now than you were in 2007?” That was the number of persons unemployed fall over that time pe- probably the one year most folks think of as “pre-Great riod. That’s the good news. Yet those who did well in the Recession,” when the Good Times last second grade recognize 52 counties had a decline in the rolled. numbers employed, while 48 counties saw the numbers Your answer is going to depend unemployed rise. on where you live now, what you are Hamilton County accounted for 22,400 (46%) doing now, compared to where you of the 48,200 increase in employed Hoosiers. Tippecanoe were and what you were doing back came in second with a 10,400 increase while Marion Coun- then. We’ll use 2007 and 2015 annual ty added 10,000 and Hendricks another 9,100. Together averages at the county level from the these four counties added more employed people than the Indiana Department of Workforce rest of the state combined. Development to get some idea about Lake County, on the other hand, saw the larg- how the Hoosier economy is now est increase in persons unemployed with 3,900 (40%) of compared to then. the state’s added 9,900 jobless. Over the course of these Let’s start with the unemployment rates. Back in eight years, state figures show a 0.02% increase in the 2007, the highest unemployment rate fell on Fayette Coun- number of Lake County residents holding jobs. At the ty at 7.2%. In 2015, Vermillion had that “honor” at 7.1%. northeast corner of the state, Steuben County enjoyed a In both periods, Hamilton County could boast the lowest 24% increase among the employed. Blackford County ex- unemployment rate of Indiana’s 92 counties, although the perienced nearly a 20% decline in employed persons, the rate did rise there from 2.9 to 3.4%. worst percentage loss any county suffered. Hamilton was just one of 40 Hoosier counties However, jobs are not gained or lost by percent- with a higher unemployment rate in 2015 than eight years age points. LaPorte County had the sad distinction of los- earlier. By contrast, 32 counties saw their unemployment ing 4,400 employed persons, while Wayne County trailed rates fall over that period, while 20 counties had negligible with a loss of 2,900. changes from -1 to +1%. Does anyone in or out of a state office notice or Despite the attention paid every month by politi- care about these disparities? v cians and the media, the real stories are in the numbers behind the unemployment rate, the persons who are Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker employed or unemployed who together make up the labor who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo. Page 16

deal of uncertainty about which party will end up in control Democrats could take of the Senate. So what should we expect in the House and Sen- ate elections this year? A simple forecasting model based back U.S. Senate on three predictors, the number of Republican seats at By ALAN I. ABRAMOWITZ stake in the election, support for the two major parties on Sabato’s Crystal Ball the “generic ballot” question in national polls, and whether CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – Since the conclusion of it is a midterm election under a Democratic or Republican the Republican and Democratic national conventions last president, yields fairly accurate predictions of seat swing month, pundits, political reporters, and ordinary Ameri- in the House and Senate. The number of Republican seats cans have, for understandable reasons, been preoccupied at stake is a measure of exposure to risk; the more seats with developments in the presidential campaign. And the Republicans have at stake, the more seats they are likely contest between Hillary Clinton to lose. The generic ballot, and Donald Trump has certainly based on polls asking voters provided plenty of material for whether they would prefer serious political observers as well a Democratic or Republican as late night comics. With the candidate for the U.S. House presidential contest getting so without naming the actual much coverage in the national candidates, is an indicator of media, however, much less at- the national political climate. tention has been devoted to the Finally, the midterm critical battle for control of the election variable indicates next Congress. Regardless of whether an election is a the outcome of the presidential Republican or Democratic election, whether Republicans midterm. There is a strong or Democrats control the House tendency for the party hold- and Senate will have enormous ing the White House to lose consequences for the direction of seats in midterm elections. the country and the ability of the However, 2016 is a presiden- next president to carry out his or tial election year, so the mid- her agenda. term variable is not relevant. At present, Republicans Two of the three predic- hold a 247- to 186-seat majority tors in this model are already in the House of Representatives set for the 2016 election. (with vacancies in two formerly We know that Republicans Democratic-held will be defending 247 seats that the party of 435 House seats and will easily hold onto). 24 of 34 Senate seats All 435 House seats this year, and we know and 34 of the 100 that 2016 is a presi- Senate seats are up dential election year so for election this year. the midterm variable In reality, however, does not favor either only around 50 House party. The only unknown seats and perhaps a for 2016 is the value dozen Senate seats of the generic ballot are really in play, the variable. Table 2 (top rest are completely chart) therefore presents safe for one party conditional forecasts or the other. Nev- for House and Senate ertheless, there are seat change based on enough seats in play values for the generic that there is some ballot variable ranging uncertainty about from a two-point Repub- which party will end lican lead to a 14-point up in control of the Democratic lead. House and a great The results in Page 17

Table 2 indicate that for almost any conceivable values of likely to pick up between six and 26 seats in the House the generic ballot variable, Democrats are likely to make and between two and six seats in the Senate. They would gains in both the House and Senate. That is largely due have about a 50% chance of regaining control of the Sen- to the fact that, as a result of their successes in the 2010 ate (if there is a Democratic vice president) but less than a and 2014 midterm elections, Republicans are defend- 15% chance of regaining control of the House. v ing unusually large numbers of seats in both chambers this year. However, the results indicate that in order for Chamber, NRSC aim new ads at Bayh Democrats to gain the minimum of four seats they need to regain control of the Senate (if there is a Democratic vice INDIANAPOLIS — Republican U.S. Senate candi- president to break a 50-50 tie), they probably would need date Todd Young ratcheted up his rhetoric against former a lead of at least two or three points on the generic ballot Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh on Tuesday after receiving and to gain the minimum of 30 seats they need to regain a big boost in outside campaign spending (Associated control of the House, they probably would need a lead of Press). The U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced it at least 13 points on the generic ballot. plans to spend at least $1 million on Indiana television ad- According to HuffPost Pollster, results of vertisements supporting Young after spending that amount recent national polls give Democrats an average lead of to promote him during the Republican primary. The Na- five points on the generic ballot. If that lead were to hold tional Republican Senatorial Committee also launched an up until the week after Labor Day, the traditional cutoff ad today noting Bayh’s “DC home, DC values.” date for the generic ballot forecast, Democrats would be Leaders of the national and state chambers joined expected to gain about 16 seats in the House and about Young at a news conference Tuesday where he accused four seats in the Senate, not enough to flip control of the Bayh, also a former two-term Indiana governor, of being House but enough to flip control of the Senate if Clinton a threat to the “American free enterprise system.” Young wins the presidential election. also personally attacked Bayh, calling him a “fundamen- Of course any forecasts based on a statistical tally flawed” person. model are subject to a margin of error. In this case, the The NRSC launched a new TV ad in Indiana today, results in Table 1 indicate that if Democrats maintain a holding Evan Bayh accountable for his Washington resi- five-point lead in the generic ballot, they would be very dency and his D.C. values. v

FUELING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND PROSPERITY STATEWIDE

www.indianachamber.com/2025 Page 18

near 1 percent. What’s the economic Add it all up, and GDP will grow 1.7 percent above inflation over the next year. That’s faster than it’s been, but slower than we’d like. outlook for 2017? It’s enough for a small drop in the unemploy- By LARRY DeBOER ment rate, from 4.9 percent now to maybe 4.6 percent by WEST LAFAYETTE – Is it August already? While mid-2017. That’s getting awfully close to full employment, I’m gearing up for my economics class at Purdue, it’s a although other measures count more folks as unemployed. good time to take a look at the economy. Got to offer Still, once we approach full employment, it’s harder for those eager young people the latest word! businesses to find new employees if they want to expand. Let’s start with gross domestic product, our main That means that output growth is limited by the growth in measure of goods and services production. GDP grew the labor force, and because baby boomers are retiring in 1.2 percent above inflation from July 2015 to June 2016. large numbers, it’s growing slowly, only 0.9 percent over That’s pretty slow. the past year. Don’t blame consumers. Consumer spending Productivity is output per employee, which de- increased 2.7 percent above inflation over the past year, pends on the machinery and technology that workers use. and when people buy, businesses Productivity has been falling over the past year, down 0.2 produce more products and hire percent. Surely that won’t continue. But add slow produc- more employees. There are good tivity growth to slow labor force growth, and we’ve got to reasons to think that consumers expect slow GDP growth. will keep spending. Job prospects Aside from oil price changes, annual consumer are better. Wages are edging up- price index inflation has been within a point of 2 percent ward. Home and stock prices are for the past 20 years. Oil price changes cause fluctuations, up. Let’s put consumers down for so the drop in oil prices cut inflation to 0.7 percent over 3 percent spending growth next the past year. Since oil prices are not expected to see big year. moves up or down, the inflation rate is likely to be around Residential investment 2 percent through mid-2017. grew a healthy 6.2 percent above The seems to be looking for inflation over the past year. a reason to raise interest rates, and over the next year it There’s only a five-month supply of houses for sale, and may justify a couple of quarter-point hikes. That would home prices tend to rise when supply is less than seven push the three-month Treasury rate up from 0.3 percent months. Rising prices encourage construction, and low now to 0.8 percent by this time next year. The 10-year mortgage rates should encourage demand. Let’s look for Treasury rate was a really low 1.5 percent in July. That another 6 percent increase next year. should rise too — to about 1.9 percent. Investment in business buildings, equipment, and So expect more slow growth as the economy technology fell 1.3 percent in 2015-16 despite corporate transitions from recovery to full employment, a small drop bond interest rates near record lows. One reason is the big in the unemployment rate, “normal” inflation and an uptick drop in oil prices since mid-2014. Investment in new rigs in interest rates. Our mild expansion should continue for doesn’t look profitable at those prices. Since capital goods another year. v orders have fallen for six months, it’s hard to see improve- ment. Let’s say we’ll see a 2 percent drop for next year. DeBoer is professor of agricultural economics at The exchange rate of the dollar is up against Purdue University. most currencies since 2014. That makes our exports more expensive, and it shows. Exports are down 1.2 percent since mid-2015. Slow growth in the rest of the world limits exports too. Perhaps the effects of the rising exchange rate have played out, so put exports down for zero growth this coming year. At least that’s not another decline. On the flip side, the strong dollar makes imports cheaper. Still, we didn’t import that much more last year, just 0.2 percent. In most years, import spending rises faster than increases in consumer spending, and with imports cheaper, spending likely will rise more — perhaps 5 percent over the next year. Government purchases grew 0.9 percent over the past year. Federal gridlock and slow growth in local revenues will probably keep government purchases growth Page 19

Thomas Main, Tribune News Service: Hillary so, Trump is now downplaying this goal, by saying that Clinton attacked her rival Donald Trump last week for his his priority is to remove “criminal” illegal immigrants. The cozy relationship with a new political movement, the Alter- game here is to sound more reasonable to swing voters native Right, or Alt-Right. The Alt-Right rejects American who are horrified by mass deportations and generally sup- democracy as did the American communists of the 1930s port mass assimilation, by projecting a recognition that not and the New Left of the 1960s. The main challenge to our all of them are full blown criminals. v way of life today now comes not from the radical left, but the Alt-Right. Starting in the 1960s, anti-Semites, overt Doug Ross, NWI Times: On Wednesday, Re- racists, and adherents were cast out publican presidential candidate Donald Trump called his of the political mainstream. These outcasts lay low for a Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, a bigot, saying she while, but they didn’t just disappear. Now their ideological is treating minorities as potential votes. She fought back descendants are trying to take over the Republican Party Thursday, saying, “He’s taking hate groups mainstream (as well as the country). The Alt-Right supports the mass and helping a radical fringe take over one of America’s two deportation of undocumented immigrants and protectionist major political parties.” Clashes between white police and trade policies. It opposes feminism, diversity, gay rights, minorities in some cities have drawn the nation’s attention, globalism, gun control and civil rights. But it is the under- with the reactions further polarizing Americans. The down- lying ideology of the Alt-Right, rather than its controversial town Chesterton sign proclaiming “all lives matter” no policy positions, that is truly sinister. Alt-Right thought is doubt irritates the Black Lives Matter folks, who see their based on white nationalism and anti-Americanism. The point as being lost by “all lives matter” campaigns — and Alt-Right holds, in essence, that all men are not created vice versa. That’s the modern backdrop for a national con- equal, and that as racial equality has displaced troversy that erupted 100 years ago in Northwest white dominance, America has declined and Indiana. D. W. Griffith’s film, “The Birth of a -Na no longer merits the allegiance of its white tion,” was released in 1915. The nation’s first real citizens. Alt-Right leaders, unlike Neo-Nazis or blockbuster film remains as controversial today as KKK supporters, are intellectually and rhetori- it was then. That film, which glorified the Ku Klux cally sophisticated. Jared Taylor, editor of the Klan, hardened the lines in the civil rights battle. It American Renaissance website, holds degrees gave white supremacists a symbol to rally behind, from Yale and the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris. On and it helped the black civil rights movement coalesce. v his site, Taylor published “An Open Letter to Cuckserva- tives” — the Alt-Right’s insulting term for moderate conser- Weekly Standard: Republican vatives — laying out his beliefs. In the letter, Taylor denies Chris Deaton, vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence pledged to cam- the notion that “the things you love about America … are paign for the support of “never Trump” voters who have rooted in certain principles.” Rather, “they are rooted in stoutly opposed the top of the ticket, focusing attention certain people.” That is, white people: “Germans, Swedes, toward the GOP and Democratic agendas and away from Irishmen, and Hungarians could come and contribute to the candidates themselves in his pitch. “I understand that the America you love,” Taylor says. v in the course of competitive politics, it gets a little rough sometimes, it gets a little personal. But at the end of the Greg Sargent, Washington Post: The Grand day, this election is a choice, and it’s a choice between Trumpian Immigration Follies of 2016 are set to take an- two agendas, not so much as two candidates,” Donald other turn: Donald Trump has now announced that he will Trump’s running mate said during a rally in Perry, Georgia, give a major speech (does any Trump speech fail to merit on Monday afternoon. “We’re going to earn the support that label?) on the issue on Wednesday, in which he is of people who ought to be with us and aren’t with us expected to finally clarify his stance on mass deportations. yet.” Pence’s comments came in response to a questioner Trump veep candidate Mike Pence promised yesterday that who said she was concerned about “the ‘never Trumpers’ Trump would clarify it. But it is more likely that instead and some of the [ backers] who just can’t seem of clarifying his stance on mass deportations, Trump will to come over to our side.” During a question and answer instead try to shift the subject away from them entirely. session, he took two questions about voter fraud, which That’s because Trump’s big lie about mass deportations — has been thrust into the election after Trump speculated i.e., that he would carry them out swiftly and humanely, the outcome in November could be “rigged” in favor of thus Making America Great Again — is falling apart. And Hillary Clinton. Pence allayed those worries, saying he was he’s now trying to replace that lie by foregrounding an- “confident” in the process. But he put the onus on private other lie. The real reason Trump is now shifting away from citizens to ensure it at the local level. “I want to tell you, mass deportations is almost too obvious to restate: It is if you’re not involved as a precinct worker, an observer, a probably alienating the college educated whites and white poll watcher at your local polls, you need to get involved, women — swing constituencies — that he simply must because that’s where elections happen. That’s where ac- improve among if he is to have a chance at winning. And countability happens,” Pence said. v Page 20

Journal). Democratic state Superin- session depends largely on progress FBI warns of tendent Glenda Ritz and McCormick, made at Tuesday’s hearing. The com- her Republican challenger, both spoke mittee hearing is open to the public. election hacks Friday at an event sponsored by the It begins at 9 a.m. in room 404 at the Indiana Coalition for Public Education, Statehouse. INDIANAPOLIS – The FBI is an organization that backs public edu- warning state officials to boost their cation and has lobbied against private State OKs Clark Co. election security in light of evidence school vouchers and other education that hackers breached related data reforms in recent years. Her biggest needle exchange systems in two states (Fowler & proposal was keeping state tests in Tucker, ). In a con- grades 3-8 relatively the same as the JEFFERSONVILLE – Clark County can fidential “flash” alert from its cyber ISTEP exam but replacing the 10th move forward with establishing a sy- division, first reported by grade ISTEP test and end-of- ringe exchange program after months Yahoo News and posted course exams for high school of waiting (Brosher, Indiana Public Me- online by others, the FBI students with the SAT college dia). The state health commissioner said it’s investigating the entrance exam instead. That declared a public health emergency in pair of incidents and ad- differs sharply from changes the community Monday, nearly eight vised states to scan their Ritz has been pushing on months after Clark County submitted systems for specific signs a state committee charged its initial request. Clark County sought of hacking. The FBI said Monday that with overhauling the state’s test- state approval for a syringe exchange it doesn’t comment on specific alerts, ing system and submitting a plan to program in December. At the time, but added that it routinely sends out lawmakers by Dec. 1. Breaking the Hepatitis C rates were 30 percent advisories to private industry about test up, Ritz says, would give teachers higher than the state average. Clark signs of cyber threats that it comes useful information that they can use County Health Department Administra- across in its investigations. The FBI to ensure students improve and shift tor Mike Meyer says the new plan uses didn’t name the states that were the exam away from being what she volunteers to staff the exchange. breached. State election websites in considers a punitive one-time pass-or- Arizona and Illinois experienced hack- fail snapshot of student learning. Terror stopped in related shutdowns earlier this summer. Greenwood In both cases, the parts of the web- LGBT study panel sites attacked involved online voter GREENWOOD - Police have registration. The FBI’s Aug. 18 warn- meets today arrested an Indianapolis man who ing also came just days after Home- INDIANAPOLIS – Lawmakers they believe was looking to carry out land Security Secretary Jeh Johnson and stakeholders in Indiana’s LGBT an act of domestic terrorism (WTHR). hosted a call with secretaries of state rights debate hope a study commit- Christopher Byrne, 31, was stopped and other state election officials to tee hearing on the issue Tuesday will on US 31 after he was seen driv- talk about cybersecurity and election move the General Assembly closer to ing suspiciously in the parking lot infrastructure. In that call, Johnson passing a bill (Smith, Indiana Public of the Greenwood Park Mall August said that while DHS isn’t aware of any Media). Anti-discrimination legisla- 15. Police were on patrol in the area particular cyber threat against elec- tion for lesbian, gay, bisexual and due to a number of car break-ins in tion-related computers, it’s “critically transgender Hoosiers couldn’t make the lot and stopped Byrne for driving important” to make sure that election it out of committee last session. And without a seat belt. When the Green- systems are secure amid a rapidly a so-called “compromise” bill leaving wood Police officer asked Byrne for changing threat landscape, according out transgender protections cleared a identification during the traffic stop, to a DHS summary of the call. committee but wasn’t called for a vote he claimed to be a “sovreign national” on the Senate floor. The bills’ author and refused to provide ID. Police were McCormick weighs Sen. Travis Holdman, R-Markle, says able to identify Byrne as a habitual in on testing the measures died because neither traffic offender and placed him under side was willing to give any ground. arrest. While searching Byrne’s vehi- He says he hopes the study commit- cle, officers found a Ruger 10-22 rifle INDIANAPOLIS – Jennifer Mc- tee shows progress. LGBT rights group with 100 rounds of ammunition, with Cormick, a school superintendent from Freedom Indiana’s Chris Paulsen says a scope and homemade suppressor Yorktown running for Indiana super- she sees the study committee meet- attached to the rifle. They also found intendent of public instruction, has ing as another opportunity to educate water bottles filled with bleach and revealed details of how she’d like to lawmakers. Holdman says whether ammonia within reach of the driver’s see Indiana’s testing system change the committee will recommend spe- seat. (Chavazos, Indianapolis Business cific legislative language before next